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Civil Military Relations in Pakistan

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Civil Military Relations in Pakistan CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS IN PAKISTAN: MUSHARRAF’S ERA (1999 – 2003) PhD DISSERTATION Submitted by Noel Israel Khokhar, HI (M) Reg. No: NDU-IR/PhD- 11/F-008 Supervisor Dr. Pervez Iqbal Cheema Department of International Relations Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University Islamabad Pakistan 2016 1 CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS IN PAKISTAN: MUSHARRAF’S ERA (1999 – 2003) Submitted by Noel I Khokhar, HI (M) Reg. No: NDU-IR/PhD -11/F-008 Supervisor Dr. Pervez Iqbal Cheema This Dissertation is submitted to National Defence University, Islamabad in partial fulfilment for degree of PhD in International Relations Department of International Relations Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University Islamabad – Pakistan 2 2016 Certificate of Completion It is hereby recommended that the dissertation submitted by Noel Israel Khokhar titled: ‘Civil Military Relations in Pakistan: Musharraf’s Era (1999-2003)’ has been accepted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in the discipline of International Relations. __________________________ Supervisor Dr. Pervez Iqbal Cheema ___________________________ External Examiner Countersigned by ______________________ _______________________ Controller of Examination Head of Department Tauqir Ahmed Dr. Mohammad Khan SUPERVISOR’S DECLARATION 3 This is to certify that PhD dissertation submitted by Noel Israel Khokhar, HI(M) titled “Civil Military Relations in Pakistan: Musharraf’s Era (1999-2003)” is supervised by me and is submitted to meet the requirements of PhD degree. Dated__________ Dr. Pervez Iqbal Cheema Supervisor STUDENTS DECLARATION I hereby declare the thesis submitted by me titled “Civil Military Relations in Pakistan: Musharraf’s Era (1999-2003)” is based on my own research work and has not been submitted to any other institution for any other degree. Dated:__________ Noel Israel Khokhar, HI(M) PhD Scholar 4 DEDICATION To my family 5 ABSTRACT Military coups in Pakistan have recurred frequently. This research studies the case of Gen Musharraf’s coup in the backdrop of conceptual framework for democratic consolidation witnessed after Gen Zia. It employs theoretical perspective furnished by approaches for democratisation with a focus on transition approach to understand contributions of political elite, the independent variable and the military, the dependent variable which resulted in military takeover and military rule. The research assesses, why Huntington’s ‘separation and objective control’ for rendering military apolitical has not been effective in Pakistan and explores alternative explanations to construct mechanisms for democratic control of military. Hypothesised on criticality of the role of political and military elite for democratic consolidation, it strives to answer four research questions, why political elite repeatedly created situations necessitating military intervention, why military took over in 1999, how successful was the military regime in realising its aspirations and why Gen Musharraf did not return democracy to the country in 2002 as required by the Supreme Court judgement. The research design employs mixed methods technique, acquires qualitative thematic data and validates it against conceptual framework. Simultaneously it acquires quantitative numerical data to obtain societal perspectives from opinion makers in the country and then integrates the two through ‘concurrent triangulation method’ to extract findings and proffer recommendations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 6 The process of earning a doctorate and writing a dissertation especially when you are also simultaneously heading a research institute is arduous and stressful. It cannot be done single handed for which I am thankful to my wife, Aksa for supporting me relentlessly throughout my service and this research, my children Zohair, Elishma and Maresha for their unfailing support and especially my late parents, who envisioned. I would like to express my gratitude to Pakistan Army, National Defence University and Faculty of Contemporary Studies for enabling me to realise my dream. Thanks are due to Dr Khan and Department of International Relations for facilitating me in completing the process and the dissertation. I am thankful to my staff and Research Associates Beenish and Qurat ul Ain for ensuring that the script is error free. I am especially indebted to Research Associate Abdul Rauf for his excellent abilities, knowledge and diligence. I am hugely indebted to Dr Saif for his experience, guidance and painstaking support in conducting the field survey and to Sufian for collating survey data and testing it for reliability and validity. I am thankful to the NDU Library staff, Mr Obaid Anwar of PASTIC for promptly meeting my constant craving for books and periodicals. I wish to acknowledge that I have personally grown and developed in the process of the research and better understand my profession and its contextual relationship to national security and development. Most of all, I am hugely indebted to Dr Pervez Iqbal Cheema, my supervisor for his understanding, wisdom, patience and encouragement for pushing me farther than I thought I could go. TABLE OF CONTENTS Serial Content Title Pages 1 Abstract vii 2 Acknowledgment viii 7 3 Table of Contents ix 4 List of Tables xii 5 List of Charts xiv 6 List of Abbreviations / Acronyms xv 7 Introduction Prelude 1 Problem Statement 16 Hypothesis 17 Research Questions 17 Research Objectives 19 Literature Review 19 Knowledge Gap 33 Significance of the Research 33 Scope and Limitations 34 Research Methodology 35 Organisation of the Study 39 Summation 42 8 Chapter 1: Conceptual Framework and Theoretical Perspective 1.1 Prelude 44 1.2 Civil Military Relations: Conceptual Framework 44 1.3 The Core Question and Explanation 48 1.4 Democracy and Political Construction 49 1.5 Civilian Control of Military 65 1.6 Military Coups 74 1.7 Interests: National and Institutional Determinants 83 1.8 Summation 90 9 Chapter 2: Democratic Construction after Gen Zia 2.1 Prelude 91 2.2 Role of Military after Gen Zia 94 8 2.3 Benazir’s First Term: December 1988 – August 1990 97 2.4 Nawaz Sharif’s First Term: November 1990 – July 1993 104 2.5 Benazir’s Second Term: October 1993 – November 1996 109 2.6 Nawaz Sharif’s Second Term: February 1997 – October 1999 113 2.7 Trends in Democratisation and Civil Military Relations 125 2.8 Summation 128 10 Chapter 3: Breakdown of Civil Military Relations 1988 – 1999 3.1 Prelude 130 3.2 Gen Karamat’s Resignation and its Impact 132 3.3 Kargil Conflict 138 3.4 Coup and Counter Coup 150 3.5 Summation 157 11 Chapter 4: Military Regime’s Aspiration 4.1 Prelude 160 4.2 Military Government – A Conceptual Framework 161 4.3 Accruing Technical Expertise to Govern 163 4.4 Setting Political Agenda 164 4.5 Legitimacy 166 4.6 Endogenous Challenges 170 4.7 Exogenous Challenges 184 4.8 Civil Military Relations during Musharraf’s Regime 192 4.9 Summation 202 12 Chapter 5: Democracy and Civil Military Relations – A Survey 5.1 Prelude 204 5.2 Survey and its Interface with the Research 205 5.3 Characteristics of the Sample 208 5.4 Survey Respondents 209 5.5 Reliability and Validity 213 5.6 Principle Results 214 5.7 Summation 237 9 13 Findings and Recommendations Prelude 239 Democratic Consolidation 240 Responsibility of Judiciary 243 Civil Military Relations 245 Democratic Control of Military 252 National Security Architecture 254 Healing the Relations 255 Summation 256 14 Conclusion 257 15 Appendix A. Questionnaire 259 B. Interview Questionnaire 263 C. GALLUP Poll and its Linkage with Survey 264 D. Kargil Map 269 16 Bibliography 270 LIST OF TABLES Serial Table Page 1 Civil and Military Regimes in Pakistan – 1947-2002 2 2 Results of 1970 Elections 8 1.1 Conceptual Framework and Theoretical Perspectives 47 1.2 Approaches to Democratisation 64 1.3 Civilian Control Matrix 66 1.4 Old and New Professionalism 71 1.5 Structural Reasons for a Military Coup 77 1.6 Triggers for Military Coup 78 2.1 Results General Elections 1988 – National Assembly 97 2.2 Results of 1990 Elections 104 2.3 Results of 1993 Elections 110 10 2.4 Results of 1997 Elections 114 2.5 Economic Growth under Different Political Regimes 127 3.1 A Comparison of Versions among COAS, Foreign Minister 146 and Prime Minister about Kargil Conflict 4.1 Timeline for Return of Democracy 167 4.2 Changes in Key Macroeconomic Indicators – October 199 174 to September 2003 4.3 Defence Expenditure as % of GDP 174 4.4 Results 2002 Elections 197 5.1 Distribution of Questionnaire 208 5.2 Profession 209 5.3 Gender 210 5.4 Education 210 5.5 Age 211 5.6 Reliability Statistics 213 5.7 Key: Reliability Statistics 213 5.8 Response Question 5 215 5.9 Response Question 7 215 5.10 Response Question 1 218 5.11 Response Question 12 218 5.12 Response Question 3 220 5.13 Response Question 6 221 5.14 Response Question 8 222 5.15 Response Question 9 223 5.16 Response Question 11 225 5.17 Response Question 12 226 5.18 Response Question 13 228 5.19 Response Question 14 230 5.20 Response Question 15 232 5.21 Response Question 10 233 5.22 Response Question 4 235 11 5.23 Response Question 16 237 LIST OF CHARTS Serial Chart Page 5.1 Response Question 1 217 5.2 Response Question 2 219 5.3 Response Question 3 220 5.4 Response Question 6 221 5.5 Response Question 8 223 5.6 Response Question 9 224 5.7 Response Question 11 225 5.8 Response Question 12 227 5.9 Response Question 13 229 5.10 Response Question 14 231 5.11 Response Question 15 232 5.12 Response Question 10 234 5.13 Response Question 4 235 5.14 Response Question
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