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New York Quarterly New York Capital Markets Group DRAFT 10-13-2010 Market Overview Snapshot Fourth Quarter 2015 NEW YORK CAPITAL New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 1 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS Market Snapshot - Manhattan Capital Markets - Manhattan Leasing Market NEW YORK CAPITAL New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 2 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS Overview • Record Breaking Year: There were 589 sales totaling $60.3 billion in 2015, a nearly 50% increase in volume year-over-year and by far the most active year on record. With 232 deals totaling $13.5 billion, the multifamily segment of the market was the leader by number of transactions, while the 101 office deals totaling $24.1 billion led the market in dollar volume. • Foreign Investment in NYC Skyrockets: Foreign investors accounted for 45% of Manhattan investment activity (dollar volume) in 2015, a new record as foreign participation in the market has ranged from 10% to 20% over the last five years. Canadian and Chinese acquisitions comprised 62% of 2015’s foreign investment, with 21 other countries accounting for the remaining 38%. • Large Transactions Dominate Across All Sectors: There were 23 deals greater than $500 million in 2015 totaling $25.7 billion (43% of the market). This activity was diversified across product types as investors, both foreign and domestic, were seeking the safety and security of NYC real estate. Office accounted for 13 deals totaling $12 billion of this activity followed by three multifamily deals at $6.6 billion, four hotel deals at $4.6 billion, one retail deal for $1.2 billion and one land deal for $870 million. • Appreciating Values: Asset values witnessed exceptional appreciation with a 21% year-over-year average increase in price per square foot. • Residential Market Continues Unprecedented Growth: The average sale price for Manhattan condominiums and co-ops reached a record $2,000,000 and $1,645 per square foot at the end of 2015. Despite the record pricing, there is softening in the ultra luxury segment of the market and increased inventory heading into 2016. • Rising Interest Rate Environment: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, the first rate hike in nearly 10 years. Economists predict additional quarter point hikes in 2016 predicated on higher inflation and wage growth. Despite the rise in interest rates, buyers are still able to borrow with positive leverage. NEW YORK CAPITAL New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 3 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS YTD Closed Manhattan Investment Sales Activity The following details a summary of the year-to-date closed investment sales activity in Manhattan: Total Size # % Square Units / Total % Avg Avg / SF Product Type of Deals of Deals Feet Keys Dollars of Dollars Deal Size or Unit or Key Multifamily 232 40% 22,883,633 24,289 $13,471,526,052 22% $58,066,923 $751 / $658,847 Land 135 23% 14,471,789 $8,459,661,830 14% $62,664,162 $639 Office 101 17% 39,103,809 $24,132,246,573 40% $238,933,134 $867 Retail 73 12% 1,508,437 $5,270,147,318 9% $72,193,799 $3,671 Hotel 22 4% 8,482 $7,233,281,519 12% $328,785,524 $888,870 Other 26 4% $1,715,773,040 3% $65,991,271 TOTAL 589 100% 77,967,668 32,771 $60,282,636,332 100% $102,347,430 Under Contract 27 $7,092,200 Closed & Under 616 $67,374,836,332 Contract NEW YORK CAPITAL New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 4 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS 2015 Manhattan MF Investment Sales Activity By Submarket Midtown Midtown South Downtown Uptown Total Total # of Deals 71 97 4 60 232 Total Units 3,544 15,142 814 4,789 24,289 Total Dollar Volume $3,021,228,188 $8,410,264,764 $711,907,184 $1,328,125,916 $13,471,526,052 Avg Price Per Unit $852,491 $749,282 $874,579 $316,608 $658,847 Total Square Feet Sold 3,334,345 14,190,429 884,332 4,474,527 22,883,633 Avg Deal Size $42,552,510 $86,703,670 $177,976,796 $22,135,432 $58,066,923 Avg Price PSF $901 $1,007 $804 $345 $751 Peter Cooper Village / Stuyvesant Town ($5,456,596,787 sale price and $471,866 per unit) and Riverton Houses ($201,000,000 sale price and $163,681 per unit) were excluded from the average price per unit and per square foot calculations. NEW YORK CAPITAL Uptown properties are north of 125th Street New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 5 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS 2015 Manhattan Office Investment Sales Activity By Submarket Midtown Class A Midtown Class B Midtown South Downtown Total Total # of Deals 18 36 39 8 101 Total Sq Ft 13,437,014 7,438,298 14,863,610 3,364,887 39,103,809 Total Dollar Volume $9,754,735,767 $4,443,226,919 $8,112,001,887 $1,822,282,000 $24,132,246,573 Avg Price PSF* $1,096 $770 $866 $542 $867 Avg Deal Size $541,929,765 $123,422,970 $208,000,048 $227,785,250 $238,933,134 * Excludes Bush Tower (130 West 42nd Street), a repositioning opportunity; 209 East 43rd Street, a leasehold position and 1407 Broadway, a consolidation of the leasehold and sub‐leasehold positions, that remains subject to a ground lease. YTD 2015 Manhattan Land/Redevelopment Investment Sales Activity By Submarket Midtown Midtown South Downtown Uptown Total Total # of Deals 51 59 20 5 135 Total Sq Ft 7,038,457 3,983,586 3,238,633 211,113 14,471,789 Total Dollar Volume $3,623,527,593 $3,168,239,876 $1,588,420,111 $79,474,250 $8,459,661,830 Avg Price PSF* $601 $795 $517 $376 $639 Avg Deal Size $71,049,561 $53,698,981 $79,421,006 $15,894,850 $62,664,162 * Price psf does not include the sale of 514 Eleventh Avenue as the property was put under contract in 2011, and 20 Broad Street as it is a leasehold. NEW YORK CAPITAL Uptown properties are north of 125th Street New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 6 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS 2015 Manhattan Retail Investment Sales Activity By Submarket Midtown Midtown South Downtown Uptown Total Total # of Deals 30 37 5 1 73 Total Sq Ft 899,978 517,071 76,124 1,508,437 1,508,437 Total Dollar Volume $3,248,792,322 $1,888,741,307 $120,113,689 $12,500,000 $5,270,147,318 Avg Price PSF $3,883 $3,846 $1,594 $819 $3,671 Avg Deal Size $108,293,077 $51,047,062 $24,022,738 $12,500,000 $72,193,799 2015 Manhattan Hotel Investment Sales By Submarket Midtown Midtown South Downtown Total Total # of Deals 14 7 1 22 Total Keys 6,846 1,408 228 8,482 Total Dollar Volume $6,115,967,519 $967,314,000 $150,000,000 $7,233,281,519 Avg Price Per Key $1,236,441 $687,013 $657,895 $888,870 Avg Deal Size $436,854,823 $138,187,714 $150,000,000 $328,785,523 NEW YORK CAPITAL Uptown properties are north of 125th Street New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 7 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS Unemployment Rate – US/NYC MSA/Manhattan 10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 % Unemployment % NYC MSA 4.8% 5.5 Manhattan: 5.2% 4.5 US: 5.0% 3.5 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 4Q2006 2Q2007 4Q2007 2Q2008 4Q2008 2Q2009 4Q2009 2Q2010 4Q2010 2Q2011 4Q2011 2Q2012 4Q2012 2Q2013 4Q2013 2Q2014 4Q2014 4Q2015 United States NYC Metropolitan Statistical Area Manhattan The December jobs report came in at +292,000 new jobs vs an expected 200,000. The Department of Labor expects the labor market to continue its strong pace into 2016 with an eye towards an uptick in wage growth. NEW YORK CAPITAL Source: Moody’s.com New York Quarterly MARKETS GROUP Snapshot 8 4Q2015 MANHATTAN CAPITAL MARKETS New York Market Perspective New Office Building Construction by Decade Average = 63.6 MSF per decade 71 270 Park Ave - 1,132,460 1285 Sixth Avenue - 1,473,950 62 643 West 43rd St - 1,128,000 58 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza- - 1,898,158 153 East 53rd St - 1,492,860 399 Park Ave - 1,250,000 1166 Sixth Avenue- 1,430,000 237 Park Ave - 1,142,196 60 Broad St - 1,014,041 1211 Sixth Avenue- - 1,734,105 55 East 52nd St - 1,050,000 200 Park Ave - 2,254,274 1 Bankers Trust Plaza- - 1,363,334 101 Park Ave - 1,137,000 1290 Sixth Avenue - 1,987,328 1633 Broadway - 2,240,000 590 Madison Ave - 1,016,413 277 Park Ave - 1,529,945 1 Penn Plaza- - 2,072,136 335 Madison Ave - 1,046,984 Inventory reduced by 31 MSF due to World 1301 Sixth Avenue - 1,764,411 1 Liberty Plaza- - 2,121,437 85 Broad St - 1,040,000 Trade Center (15 MSF) and residential 11 Times Square – 1,100,000 59 Maiden Ln - 1,043,007 55 Water St - 3,600,000 101 Barclay St - 1,140,000 conversions (16 MSF) 200 West Street – 2,000,000 th 245 Park Ave - 1,611,046 9 West 57th St - 1,500,000 787 Seventh Ave - 1,429,610 450 W 14 Street – 135,000 51 Astor Place – 430,000 26 Federal Plaza- 1,109,969 1114 Sixth Avenue- - 1,310,000 1 WFC - 1,461,365 50 W 47th Street – 745,000 Square Feet (millions) 140 Broadway - 1,200,000 1185 Sixth Avenue- - 1,000,000 3 WFC - 2,300,000 Average = 14.2 MSF per decade 540 Madison – 300,000 1 WTC – 3,500,000 909 Third Ave - 1,125,000 1221 Sixth Avenue- - 2,200,000 4 WFC - 1,600,000 4 WTC – 2,300,000 th 767 Fifth Ave - 1,637,379 1251 Sixth Avenue- - 1,893,652 2 WFC - 2,200,000 21 250 West 55 Street – 1,050,000 7 Bryant Park – 470,000 1345 Sixth Avenue - 1,640,000 1515 Broadway - 1,417,450 7 WTC - 1,855,000 383 Madison Ave - 1,200,000 745 Seventh Ave - 1,036,741 2 Penn Plaza- - 1,500,000 1 WTC - 3,958,091 Financial Sqr - 1,000,301 5 Times Square - 1,062,203 1 NY Plaza- -2,103,750 2 WTC - 3,958,091 825 Eighth Ave - 1,550,212 Columbus Center - 1,016,000 11.56 10 731 Lexington Ave – 1,300,000 345 Park Ave - 1,600,519 2 NY Plaza- - 1,345,919 388 Greenwich St - 1,600,000 300 Madison Ave - 1,200,000 450 West 33rd St - 1,500,000 60 Wall St - 1,587,849 1585 Broadway - 1,220,732 7 Times Square - 1,000,000 7 WTC - 1,700,000 4 Times Square - 1,477,631 1101 Sixth Avenue- - 2,100,000 620 Eighth Ave - 1,500,000 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 - Present Net addition to supply over past 3 decades (1990’s + 2000 + 2010-Present) = 3.9 MSF per decade.
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