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Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Volume 6, Issue 1 Jan/Feb 2014
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Volume 6, Issue 1 Jan/Feb 2014 Annual Threat Assessment SOUTHEAST ASIA Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore SOUTH ASIA Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA China and Central Asia MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Somalia INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH S. RAJARATNAM SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY 2 ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT Terrorism and Political Violence in 2013 Southeast Asia peace talks were held in January 2014. Iraq, too, remains besieged by sectarian violence and constant attacks. In Yemen, Southeast Asia has seen some of its insurgencies and conflicts multiple insurgencies and a robust threat from Al Qaeda in the diminish while others have continued unabated. In Thailand, the Arabian Peninsula have hampered an already difficult political restive south continued to see violence in 2013 while Bangkok transition. In Egypt, Morsi’s ouster has seen protests continuing witnessed a political crisis with protests against the government to plague the country while the military attempts another turning violent. In Myanmar, reforms have moved forward but political transition. Libya, meanwhile, faces a persistent security communal violence continues to plague the country and has challenge in its southern border region and the success of its evolved from targeting Rohingyas towards Muslim minority transition after Gaddafi will depend on the militias which communities in general. Indonesia continues to face a potent deposed the former dictator giving up their arms. In Somalia, threat from radicalization and concern has emerged over the al-Shabaab has intensified its campaign against the role its “hard” counterterrorist approach is playing in fueling government in the wake of a hardline faction emerging further extremism. -
Syrian Armed Opposition Powerbrokers
March 2016 Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 29 SYRIAN ARMED OPPOSITION POWERBROKERS Cover: A rebel fighter of the Southern Front of the Free Syrian Army gestures while standing with his fellow fighter near their weapons at the front line in the north-west countryside of Deraa March 3, 2015. Syrian government forces have taken control of villages in southern Syria, state media said on Saturday, part of a campaign they started this month against insurgents posing one of the biggest remaining threats to Damascus. Picture taken March 3, 2015. REUTERS/Stringer All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. ©2016 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2016 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 | Washington, DC 20036 www.understandingwar.org Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 29 SYRIAN ARMED OPPOSITION POWERBROKERS ABOUT THE AUTHORS Jennifer Cafarella is the Evans Hanson Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War where she focuses on the Syrian Civil War and opposition groups. Her research focuses particularly on the al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra and their military capabilities, modes of governance, and long-term strategic vision. She is the author of Likely Courses of Action in the Syrian Civil War: June-December 2015, and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria: An Islamic Emirate for al-Qaeda. -
The East Turkistan Islamic Party (E.T.I.P.) University Honors Capstone, Spring 2014
The East Turkistan Islamic Party (E.T.I.P.) University Honors Capstone, Spring 2014 Author: Kathryn Appelman Advisor: Tricia Bacon, JLC This study investigates the motives, history, leadership, impact, and future of the East Turkistan Islamic Party (E.T.I.P.), a little-studied ethno-nationalist separatist terrorist organization in China’s Xinjiang province. Basing findings on existing literature, original Chinese news reports and press releases, and firsthand interviews with experts, it concludes that while E.T.I.P.-proper does not pose a significant threat to U.S. national security, issues surrounding it present significant foreign policy problems vis à vis China and the human rights community. However, ETIP members in Pakistan are likely cooperating with known enemies of the United States, and the United States should continue its CT efforts against them without infringing on China’s sovereignty. The East Turkistan Islamic Party (E.T.I.P.) I. Overview and Literature Review ETIP, or the East Turkistan Islamic Party, is a religious ethno-nationalist terrorist organization, made up of Uighur separatists who aim to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state in the West Chinese province of Xinjiang. In the United States, it is known largely for its connection to Al Qaeda, its threats against the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and its members detained in Guantanamo Bay. However, in China, ETIP is considered a serious threat to the internal security of the country. The study of active terrorist groups will always be a murky subject, but ETIP takes “murky” to a new level. Members of ETIP are Uighur Muslims; however, much further information, such as education level, structure, or community support, even the size of the organization, is tightly guarded by the PRC. -
Transition in Afghanistan: Filling the Security Vacuum – the Expansion of Uighur Extremism?
Sources of Tension in Afghanistan and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective Transition in Afghanistan: Filling the Security Vacuum – The Expansion of Uighur Extremism? Raffaello Pantucci and Edward Schwarck May 2014 CIDOB Policy Research Project CIDOB BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS With support from TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN: FILLING THE SECURITY VACUUM – THE EXPANSION OF UIGHUR EXTREMISM? Raffaello Pantucci and Edward Schwarck Raffaello Pantucci is Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services his paper aims to map out as clearly as possible the current threat Institute for Defence and Security from Uighur extremist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and as- Studies (RUSI). His research focuses on certain whether these groups will develop into a regional threat terrorism and China’s relations with T Central and South Asia. over the next few years. Edward Schwarck is Research Fellow It will be argued that Uighur Sunni-jihadist groups in Afghanistan and Pa- and Head of the Asia Programme at the Royal United Services Institute for kistan are unlikely to be able to fill the security void in either country after Defence and Security Studies (RUSI). His the West’s withdrawal. Traditionally, these groups have struggled to gain research centres on domestic security in China – particularly in Xinjiang – and traction within the global jihadist community. China has also done an ef- Chinese foreign policy in the Asia- fective job of building regional relationships that means local governments Pacific region. would block their ascension into power. Furthermore, the number of Ui- ghur militants remains marginal, suggesting that, at worst, they might be able to take control of some small settlements. -
Is China Prepared for Global Terrorism? Xinjiang and Beyond
IS CHINA PREPARED FOR GLOBAL TERRORISM? XINJIANG AND BEYOND DANIEL L. BYMAN AND ISRAA SABER SEPTEMBER 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY While China has never been a particularly strong counterterrorism partner for the United States, recent China has long faced low-level violence from the East tensions in trade and rhetoric make cooperation Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which seeks an especially unlikely in the near to medium term. independent Xinjiang. To counter the ETIM and other Differences in approaches to technology usage separatist Uighurs, the Chinese Communist Party and oversight and criticisms of China’s human (CCP) has passed laws regulating, and in some cases rights violations have added to the tension. restricting, expressions of Islamic and Turkic identity. Though, superficially, the United States and other Such levels of control have been used elsewhere in liberal democracies are still setting the global China where the CCP has felt threatened by separatist counterterrorism agenda, China has found opportunity movements. Since the 2014 “Strike Hard” campaign, to independently strengthen ties with states facing China’s crackdown in Xinjiang has escalated to terrorism threats. If China moves towards taking a include internment camps, forced labor, and daily leadership role in countering terrorism and its policies indoctrination programs. The CCP has also made great become the future standard, counterterrorism could use of technological advancements to surveil Xinjiang become an additional area of contention between residents. Besides surveillance cameras equipped Beijing and Washington. with facial recognition, the government also collects information such as biometric data, data usage, and location. This sweeping approach is used to combat INTRODUCTION what China considers to be a serious terrorism threat. -
Terrorism in the Indo-Pacific: the Year Gone by and the Road Ahead
FEATURE Terrorism in the Indo-Pacific * The Year Gone By and the Road Ahead DR. SAM MULLINS lobally, terrorism has been on the decline since peaking in 2014, the year that the Islamic State (ISIS) declared its “caliphate” in the Middle East. Nevertheless, terrorism levels are still approximately double what they Gwere a decade ago and around five times what they were in 2001.1 The Indo- Pacific region, which encompasses most of Asia, as well as North America, Aus- tralasia, Oceania, and parts of South America, consistently experiences some of the highest rates of terrorism in the world, and 2019 was no exception.2 This ar- ticle, though by no means an exhaustive account, provides a roughly chronological overview of significant terrorist activities in the Indo-Pacific during the past year, with a particular focus on South and Southeast Asia. This is followed by several important advances in counterterrorism (CT). The article concludes by consider- ing what these, and other developments, may portend for the future. An Evolving Threat: Significant Developments in 2019 Suicide Bombing in the Philippines The year began with a deadly, twin suicide bombing of the Cathedral of Our Lady of Mount Carmel in Jolo in the southern Philippines, in which 23 people lost their lives and scores more were injured. Executed by 35-year-old Rullie Rian Zeke and his 32-year- old wife, Ulfah Handayani Saleh, both from Indonesia, the attack was demonstrative of the enduring potency of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), which orchestrated it, as well as Jamaah Ansharut Daulah ( JAD), which the two perpetrators had been members of in Indonesia.3 It furthermore under- scored the continuing influence of ISIS (with which both ASG and JAD are aligned), the threat of foreign fighters, the heightened popularity of sectarian targets, and the importance of family ties between militants in the region. -
Losing Their Last Refuge: Inside Idlib's Humanitarian Nightmare
Losing Their Last Refuge INSIDE IDLIB’S HUMANITARIAN NIGHTMARE Sahar Atrache FIELD REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 Cover Photo: Displaced Syrians are pictured at a camp in Kafr Lusin near the border with Turkey in Idlib province in northwestern Syria. Photo Credit: AAREF WATAD/AFP/Getty Images. Contents 4 Summary and Recommendations 8 Background 9 THE LAST RESORT “Back to the Stone Age:” Living Conditions for Idlib’s IDPs Heightened Vulnerabilities Communal Tensions 17 THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE UNDER DURESS Operational Challenges Idlib’s Complex Context Ankara’s Mixed Role 26 Conclusion SUMMARY As President Bashar al-Assad and his allies retook a large swath of Syrian territory over the last few years, rebel-held Idlib province and its surroundings in northwest Syria became the refuge of last resort for nearly 3 million people. Now the Syrian regime, backed by Russia, has launched a brutal offensive to recapture this last opposition stronghold in what could prove to be one of the bloodiest chapters of the Syrian war. This attack had been forestalled in September 2018 by a deal reached in Sochi, Russia between Russia and Turkey. It stipulated the withdrawal of opposition armed groups, including Hay’at Tahrir as-Sham (HTS)—a former al-Qaeda affiliate—from a 12-mile demilitarized zone along the front lines, and the opening of two major HTS-controlled routes—the M4 and M5 highways that cross Idlib—to traffic and trade. In the event, HTS refused to withdraw and instead reasserted its dominance over much of the northwest. By late April 2019, the Sochi deal had collapsed in the face of the Syrian regime’s military escalation, supported by Russia. -
Putin's Syrian Gambit: Sharper Elbows, Bigger Footprint, Stickier Wicket
STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES 25 Putin’s Syrian Gambit: Sharper Elbows, Bigger Footprint, Stickier Wicket by John W. Parker Center for Strategic Research Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is National Defense University’s (NDU’s) dedicated research arm. INSS includes the Center for Strategic Research, Center for Complex Operations, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, and Center for Technology and National Security Policy. The military and civilian analysts and staff who comprise INSS and its subcomponents execute their mission by conducting research and analysis, publishing, and participating in conferences, policy support, and outreach. The mission of INSS is to conduct strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the unified combatant commands in support of the academic programs at NDU and to perform outreach to other U.S. Government agencies and the broader national security community. Cover: Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, August, 2012 (Russian Ministry of Defense) Putin's Syrian Gambit Putin's Syrian Gambit: Sharper Elbows, Bigger Footprint, Stickier Wicket By John W. Parker Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives, No. 25 Series Editor: Denise Natali National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. July 2017 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this work may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. -
11 July 2006 Mumbai Train Bombings
11 July 2006 Mumbai train bombings July 2006 Mumbai train bombings One of the bomb-damaged coaches Location Mumbai, India Target(s) Mumbai Suburban Railway Date 11 July 2006 18:24 – 18:35 (UTC+5.5) Attack Type Bombings Fatalities 209 Injuries 714 Perpetrator(s) Terrorist outfits—Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT; These are alleged perperators as legal proceedings have not yet taken place.) Map showing the 'Western line' and blast locations. The 11 July 2006 Mumbai train bombings were a series of seven bomb blasts that took place over a period of 11 minutes on the Suburban Railway in Mumbai (formerly known as Bombay), capital city of the Indian state of Maharashtra and India's financial capital. 209 people lost their lives and over 700 were injured in the attacks. Details The bombs were placed on trains plying on the western line of the suburban ("local") train network, which forms the backbone of the city's transport network. The first blast reportedly took place at 18:24 IST (12:54 UTC), and the explosions continued for approximately eleven minutes, until 18:35, during the after-work rush hour. All the bombs had been placed in the first-class "general" compartments (some compartments are reserved for women, called "ladies" compartments) of several trains running from Churchgate, the city-centre end of the western railway line, to the western suburbs of the city. They exploded at or in the near vicinity of the suburban railway stations of Matunga Road, Mahim, Bandra, Khar Road, Jogeshwari, Bhayandar and Borivali. -
Operation “Retribution”: Putin's Military Campaign in Syria, 2015-16
Middle East Policy, Vol. XXIII, No. 4, Winter 2016 Operation “Retribution”: Putin’s Military Campaign in Syria, 2015-16 Brian Glyn Williams and Robert Souza Dr. Williams is Professor of Islamic History at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth and the author of Counter-Jihad. The American Military Experience in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria (University of Pennsylvania Press, November 2016). He previously worked for the CIA’s CTC in Afghanistan and in Kabul for the Army’s Information Operations. Mr. Souza is an assistant managing editor at Young Professionals in Foreign Policy in Washington, D.C., and a research analyst for the Center for the Study of Targeted Killings. eptember 30, 2016, marked the It soon became widely apparent, first anniversary of Russian Presi- however, that the Russians had conflated dent Vladimir Putin’s decision to ISIS with CIA-backed rebels and various involve his nation militarily in the other anti-Assad Sunni rebel forces with no SSyrian conflict on the side of Moscow’s known connection to ISIS, creating the false longtime ally, the Assad regime. Accord- narrative of a united terrorist monolith that ing to initial Russian Defense Ministry needed to be eradicated in order to preserve statements and Putin himself, the mission stability in Syria. In the process, Putin was had the primary objective of joining the able to successfully “shift the sands” of the U.S.-led coalition in fighting ISIS. Russia’s conflict and bolster the endangered Assad chief of staff of the Presidential Executive regime while simultaneously cultivating Office at that time, Sergei Ivanov, using his image domestically as a strong leader: an alternative name for ISIS, laid out his able to stand up to the West, project power country’s official objectives on September abroad, and support an embattled ally 30, 2015: “The military goal of the opera- against international jihadists. -
Violent Resistance in Xinjiang (China): Tracking Militancy, Ethnic Riots and ‘Knife- Wielding’ Terrorists (1978-2012)
HAO, Núm. 30 (Invierno, 2013), 135-149 ISSN 1696-2060 VIOLENT RESISTANCE IN XINJIANG (CHINA): TRACKING MILITANCY, ETHNIC RIOTS AND ‘KNIFE- WIELDING’ TERRORISTS (1978-2012) Pablo Adriano Rodríguez1 1University of Warwick (United Kingdom) E-mail: [email protected] Recibido: 14 Octubre 2012 / Revisado: 5 Noviembre 2012 / Aceptado: 10 Enero 2013 / Publicación Online: 15 Febrero 2013 Resumen: Este artículo aborda la evolución The stability of Xinjiang, the northwestern ‘New de la resistencia violenta al régimen chino Frontier’ annexed to China under the Qing 2 en la Región Autónoma Uigur de Xinjiang dynasty and home of the Uyghur people –who mediante una revisión y análisis de la officially account for the 45% of the population naturaleza de los principales episodios in the region- is one of the pivotal targets of this expenditure focused nationwide on social unrest, violentos, en su mayoría con connotaciones but specifically aimed at crushing separatism in separatistas, que han tenido lugar allí desde this Muslim region, considered one of China’s el comienzo de la era de reforma y apertura “core interests” by the government3. chinas (1978-2012). En este sentido, sostiene que la resistencia violenta, no In Yecheng, attackers were blamed as necesariamente con motivaciones político- “terrorists” by Chinese officials and media. separatistas, ha estado presente en Xinjiang ‘Extremism, separatism and terrorism’ -as en la forma de insurgencia de baja escala, defined by the rhetoric of the Shanghai revueltas étnicas y terrorismo, y Cooperation Organization (SCO)- were invoked probablemente continúe en el futuro again as ‘evil forces’ present in Xinjiang. teniendo en cuenta las fricciones existentes Countering the Chinese official account of the events, the World Uyghur Congress (WUC), a entre la minoría étnica Uigur y las políticas Uyghur organization in the diaspora, denied the llevadas a cabo por el gobierno chino. -
Cry Havoc Règles Fr 20/07/17 10:50 Page1
ager historique UK_cry havoc règles fr 20/07/17 10:50 Page1 HISTORY & SCENARIOS ager historique UK_cry havoc règles fr 20/07/17 10:50 Page2 © Buxeria & Historic’One éditions - 2017 - v1.0 ager historique UK_cry havoc règles fr 20/07/17 10:50 Page3 SELJUK SULTANATE OF RUM Konya COUNTY OF EDESSA Sis PRINCIPALITY OF ARMENIAN CILICIA Edessa Tarsus Turbessel Harran BYZANTINE EMPIRE Antioch Aleppo PRINCIPALITY OF ANTIOCH Emirate of Shaïzar Isma'ili COUNTY OF GRAND SELJUK TRIPOLI EMPIRE Damascus Acre DAMASCUS F THE MIDDLE EAST KINGDOM IN 1135 TE O OF between the First JERUSALEM and Second Crusades Jerusalem EMIRA N EW S FATIMID 0 150 km CALIPHATE ager historique UK_cry havoc règles fr 20/07/17 10:43 Page1 History The Normans in Northern Syria in the 12th Century 1. Historical background Three Normans distinguished themselVes during the First Crusade: Robert Curthose, Duke of NormandY and eldest son of William the Conqueror 1 Whose actions Were decisiVe at the battle of DorYlea in 1197, Bohemond of Taranto, the eldest son of Robert Guiscard 2, and his nepheW Tancred, Who led one of the assaults upon the Walls of Jerusalem in 1099. Before participating in the crusade, Bohemond had been passed oVer bY his Younger half-brother Roger Borsa as Duke of Puglia and Calabria on the death of his father in 1085. Far from being motiVated bY religious sentiment like GodfreY of Bouillon, the crusade Was for him just another occasion to Wage War against his perennial enemY, BYZantium, and to carVe out his oWn state in the HolY Land.