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Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposal in a Deep Horizontal Drillhole Repository Sited in Shale: Numerical Simulations in Support of a Generic Post-Closure Safety Analysis

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Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposal in a Deep Horizontal Drillhole Repository Sited in Shale: Numerical Simulations in Support of a Generic Post-Closure Safety Analysis DI-2020-01-R0 Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposal in a Deep Horizontal Drillhole Repository Sited in Shale: Numerical Simulations in Support of a Generic Post-Closure Safety Analysis Revision 00 May 5, 2020 Deep Isolation, Inc. 2120 University Ave., Suite 623 Berkeley, California 94704 USA This work was supported by Deep Isolation, Inc., Berkeley, California, USA DISCLAIMER This report may concern work in progress that may have had limited review. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither Deep Isolation Inc. nor any Sponsor of this work make any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of this information, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Any use which a third party makes of the information presented in this work, or any reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third parties. © 2020. Deep Isolation Inc. All Rights Reserved. REVISION HISTORY Revision Date Description 00A 12/20/2019 Initial draft, for internal review 00B 01/06/2020 Internal review comments addressed; concurrence copy 00C 01/24/2020 Final draft 00D 01/28/2020 Added instant waste mobilization scenario; addressed additional review comments 00 05/05/2020 Sensitivity to repository depth added; editorial changes and other minor additions _________________________________________________________________________ POST-CLOSURE SAFETY CALCULATIONS, REV00 i IMPORTANT NOTE This document describes post-closure safety calculations for a generic deep horizontal drillhole repository. The calculations are preliminary and do not derive from a specific geographic location or geological site. The layout and design of the repository represent only the general disposal concept as no site-specific characterization data or detailed technical designs are available. The conceptual and numerical models, as well as assumptions and parameters and their uncertainties, are reflective of this context. Generic calculations are a necessary step toward developing a comprehensive, site-specific safety analysis that eventually supports the safety case of a deep horizontal drillhole repository in compliance with all applicable regulations. _________________________________________________________________________ POST-CLOSURE SAFETY CALCULATIONS, REV00 ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents generic post-closure radiological safety calculations of a horizontal drillhole repository for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) sited in an argillaceous host rock. The disposal concept consists of an array of deep horizontal drillholes bored into suitable host rocks using directional drilling technology. Individual spent fuel assemblies are contained in canisters, which are then placed end-to-end into the sub-horizontal disposal section of a cased drillhole with a diameter of 0.48 m. A system of multiple engineered and natural barriers is relied upon to provide safety from radiological exposure. The performance of this barrier system with respect to waste isola- tion from the accessible environment has been quantitatively evaluated using a physics- based numerical model that accounts for coupled thermal-hydrological fluid flow and radionuclide transport processes. The model incorporates most subcomponents of the repository system, spanning spatial scales from that of an individual waste canister to the regional scale of the geosphere. Moreover, the time scale covered by the model starts with repository closure, contains the thermal period, and extends to ten million years, a period long enough to capture the time of peak dose. Including these relevant spatial and temporal scales in a single model helps maintain a consistent and transparent treatment of features and processes, and avoids artificial interfaces between submodels of disparate levels of complexity. The main performance measure evaluated by the post-closure model and used for judging adequate safety is the maximum annual dose to a person at the surface who drinks poten- tially contaminated water from a well located directly above the center of the repository. This and other safety metrics have been evaluated for a wide range of conditions and alternative system evolutions, using deterministic simulations of a nominal scenario, sensitivity analyses to examine assumptions and bounding cases, and a probabilistic analysis to evaluate the impact of uncertainties and spatial variability. The results of these post-closure radiological consequences—calculated using a simplified representation of a generic deep horizontal drillhole repository located in shale— show for both the nominal case and disruptive-event scenarios that (a) the estimated maximum annual dose is low, and (b) the dose estimate is robust to changes in key assumptions as well as uncertainties inherent in the analysis. Furthermore, the calculations suggest that the key safety function of long-term isolation from the accessible environment is provided by the depth of the repository and the attributes of its configuration (i.e., linear arrangement of waste canisters in a drillhole with small cross-sectional area, small perturbation of the host formation). Long-term confinement of radionuclides in the stable waste matrix and long migration times allow for radioactive decay to occur within the repository system, considerably reducing the activity of radionuclides potentially being released to the accessible environment. Retardation and spreading of radionuclides in the geosphere, dilution in the near-surface aquifer and attenuation in the biosphere lead to low annual doses that are calculated to be significantly below a dose standard of 10 mrem per year. The main objectives of this report are to: _________________________________________________________________________ POST-CLOSURE SAFETY CALCULATIONS, REV00 iii • Assemble a preliminary list of relevant safety aspects that need to be analyzed and assessed when seeking a regulatory license for a deep horizontal drillhole reposi- tory. • Demonstrate that long-term safety from the hazards presented by SNF can be evalu- ated for a deep horizontal drillhole repository sited in a sedimentary host formation, using established simulation tools and analysis methods. • Provide arguments in support of a generic post-closure safety analysis as a basis for a subsequent, site-specific safety assessment and license application for such a repository. • Establish a template for reports describing a site-specific safety analysis. • Develop a technical basis for discussions with the public, stakeholders, regulators, and collaborators regarding the performance and safety of a horizontal drillhole repository for spent nuclear fuel. • Determine the suitability of argillaceous formations (specifically shale) as a host rock for a horizontal drillhole repository containing heat-generating nuclear waste. • Improve the understanding of the safety functions performed by each component of the multi-barrier system of the deep horizontal drillhole repository. • Assess the robustness of the analyzed disposal system to inherent uncertainties as well as adverse events. • Determine which elements of a future site-specific safety analysis cannot be supported by a generic analysis because of the lack of relevant characterization data, system understanding, or analysis capabilities. It is understood that repository performance will have to be reassessed as new information becomes available, and reevaluated for each potential disposal site, accounting for the final repository design and site-specific conditions. Nevertheless, these generic calculations are considered a useful if not necessary step toward developing a comprehensive, site-specific safety analysis which will support the safety case of a deep horizontal drillhole repository in compliance with all applicable regulations. _________________________________________________________________________ POST-CLOSURE SAFETY CALCULATIONS, REV00 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose and Role ................................................................................................................ 1 1.3 Scope .................................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Document Outline and Conventions ................................................................................. 4 2 Safety Strategy ............................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Context ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Safety Analysis Process and Approach ............................................................................. 6 3 System Description ......................................................................................................... 9 3.1 General Description of Geologic Disposal Facility .......................................................... 9 3.2 Overall Description of Horizontal Drillhole Repository Configuration ...................... 10 3.3 Engineered Barrier System .............................................................................................
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