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New Opportunities in the Chip Industry

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New Opportunities in the Chip Industry MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 New Opportunities in the Chip Industry Semico Summit by Semico Research, March 14, 2004, Scottsdale Keynote Speech Commentary This is a keynote speech at Semico Summit, a conference of semiconductor executives, in 2004. I was awarded the Bellwether Award after this keynote. It had been awarded annually to one person who contributed to the industry with outstanding leadership and vision in the field of semiconductors. My former winners were all distinguished people including Morris Chang of TSMC, Steve Appleton of Micron, Wally Rhines of Mentor Graphics, and Jerry Sanders of AMD, and it was quite a honor for me. Previous to Semico Summit, Dataquest conferences and In-Stat conferences were major semiconductor conferences in the US. Since 1999, Semico Summit became the major one. In the speech, I talked about macro trends in the electronics industry and tried to convey a clear message about its relationship with semiconductor technology. The main scenario was that “PC era is over and digital consumer era will come out,” showing some concrete examples. Furthermore, it was pointed out that robotics would become technology and market driver of semiconductors in the future. Supporting the evolution of robotics is the diversification of semiconductor technologies; along with high-performance and low-power SoC/SiP, highly functional devices such as sensors, called “More than Moore” devices today, would play the crucial role. <Picture at right> The bell shaped object is “Bellwether Award” with the signature of Paolo Soreli, architect and philosopher, and bellwether of “Arcology”. Jim Feldhan (left) is President and CEO of Semico Research 1 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 This is a keynote speech at the international conference where semiconductor executives gather once a year. At the time of this speech, digital consumer products were getting momentum and there would be a big opportunities here. Following digital consumer products, robotics would provide new business opportunities in the future. 2 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 Punning on "Murphy's Law of Golf", I put it as "Murphy's Law of Semiconductor". "If we learn from our mistakes, semiconductor people are the most learned people on earth”. I myself is no exception, and I made so many mistakes. Today’s talk is based on such mistakes. 3 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 4 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 December 1, 2003 was the start-up date of terrestrial digital broadcasting in Japan, the event that symbolized the spread of digitalization of consumer goods. Prime Minister Koizumi attended the ceremony because of the importance of the event. It was estimated that the overall economic effect would be 2000 B $ by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 5 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The figure shows the analog to digital conversion of TVs in Japan. As for digital broadcasting, CS started in 1996, CATV in 1998, and BS in 2000. And now, the terrestrial digital broadcasting has finally started. Analog broadcasting will end by 2011, and conversion to digitalization will be completed. 6 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The figure shows shipment trend of digital TVs in Japan. Starting to rise from 2001, about 10 million units will be shipped in 2008, and the ratio of digitalization is expected to exceed 80% then. Good news for the semiconductor industry is the increase of the semiconductor content by digitalization. It is about 6 times increase; $18 for analog to $113 for digital. 7 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 Shown above is the analog to digital conversion of cameras. Casio first commercialized a digital camera in 1995. Although the number of pixels was as low as 270,000 in this model, it sold more than expected as the easy input device to PC. After that, the digital cameras grew steadily, and finally reversed the analog in 2002. Also, the amount of semiconductor content per unit became 12 times that of analog. 8 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 Shown above is the shift from VCR to DVD as a case of analog to digital conversion. VCR has been the only TV recording means until 1998, but it would be replaced by DVD recorders eventually. In 2002, the DVD players surpassed VCR, and in 2006 the DVD recorders would replace VCRs; meaning that majority of the consumer products would be digitalized at this point. 9 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 10 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 This figure shows the paradigm shift in the semiconductor market. The blue line shows the ratio of the computer market, while the red line is the market of consumer, communications, and cars. The PC was the market driver from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s. Meanwhile digital consumers became the market driver since the mid 1990s towards 2000s. Major paradigm shift is just occurring. 11 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The figure compares the semiconductor market for PC with digital consumer segments. Although the PC was overwhelmingly large in 2001, it would be reversed in 2005, and the market driver after that would become digital consumer products. Major segments include mobile phones, DVDs, digital TVs, games, etc. This trend is more prominent in 2016, and smartphone is the largest segment. 12 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The figure shows the paradigm shift of electronics in the form of waves. The First Digital Wave driven by PC tends to be saturated, and the Second Digital Wave is growing as the major wave. At the time of this speech, it was generally thought in the US and elsewhere that "PC is the center of the semiconductor market", and my message was received with some surprises by many executives. 13 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 This table compares the features of the three waves in electronics. For each wave, "Market Drivers", "Key Devices", “Social Impacts", and "Who Leads?" are listed. For the Second Digital Wave, the "consumer products connected to networks" became the driver, but the winner was unknown yet. But now we know Apple became the decicive leader by creating the smartphone market. 14 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 15 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The figure explains the power of SoC as the representative new technology. By shifting from "system on board" to SoC, the performance becomes 4 times higher, the power to 1/5, and the chip counts to 1/4. Advanced SoC is indispensable for making high performance mobile terminals. 16 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 This is an example of SoC developed for Sony's network handycam. The SoC chip includes encoder and decoder together with 48Mbit of DRAM. In the previous system, 3 chips of logic and DRAM in 0.35 μm design were required. In the new system, a single chip SoC of 0.18 μm design did everything, and the power consumption was reduced from 3.2 W to 170 mW, which was about 1/20. 17 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 However, there are several issues to be addressed for SoC as listed in the above table. The question is: will SoC be profitable? · · · The answer is: yes in some cases, but not always. In order to make it profitable, it is important to complement the weaknesses of SoC with SiP, and to make effective use of field programmability. 18 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The mask cost was taken as a representative example of tooling cost, which increases as the miniaturization advances as shown by the blue line in the figure. On the other hand, lifetime volume of production decreases as the chip complexity increases because versatility is lost. Therefore, the mask cost per unit increases rapidly like the red line in the figure. This is the fundamental problem of SoC. 19 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 20 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The figure shows the trend of miniaturization of various electronic equipment such as calculators, video cameras, mobile phones, and PCs. For achieving such miniaturization, the packaging technology contributed greatly in parallel with the reduction of chip counts due to increase in integration level. 21 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The figure shows the outline of “Jisso” technology. Jisso is to provide "total solution" for interconnection, assembly, packaging, and system integration design. There are four levels of implementation as shown in the figure: Chip level, Package level, Module level, and Mother Board level. 22 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 A comparison of three Jisso technologies, or SoB, SiP, and SoC, is shown by radar chart. SoB is superior in flexibility, time to market, and development cost. But it is extremely inferior in terms of performance, power, and size. SoC is just opposite; superior in performance, power, and size, but inferior in other aspects. SiP is in the middle of the two, complementing SoC's weakness. 23 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 Various forms of SiP are shown here. From top left, multi-chip wire bonding type, chip stacked type, chip on chip type, package stacked type, chip rerouting type, and interposer type. 24 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The first example is a camera used for mobile phones. A CCD sensor module with 1.3 million pixels is shown in lower left. A cross section of the sensor module is shown in the center. A sensor is placed under the lens unit, and EEPROM and DSP chips are placed side by side under the sensor. ACF, or Anisotropic Conductive Film, is used for connecting the chips and the substrate. 25 MAKIMOTO LIBRARY / Exhibit VI / No.13 The second example of Jisso is for digital camera.
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