Electoral Fraud and the Erosion of Democratic Gains in Kenya1 James D. Long
[email protected] Department of Political Science & Center for the Study of African Political Economy University of California, San Diego Paper prepared for the Working Group in African Political Economy (WGAPE) meeting, April 30-May 1, Pomona College ** This paper is a draft; please do not cite without permission** 1 This paper is a draft of Chapter Six of my dissertation, ―Voting, Fraud, and Violence: the Problem of Elections in Emerging Democracies,‖ Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego. I would like to thank Nic Cheeseman, Danielle Jung, Karuti Kanyinga, Adrienne LeBas, and David Ndii for comments on previous versions of this chapter. I would also like to thank Clark Gibson, Ken Flottman, Norbert Aluku, and Peter Oriare for their help in the management of the exit poll, and the many Kenyan enumerators from Strategic Research for their excellent assistance in the implementation of the poll. All errors remain with the author. Despite voters‘ attempts to use elections as mechanisms of accountability, weak institutional environments in emerging democracies do not always succeed at providing its supply. Indeed, a number of institutional deficiencies affect the lives of citizens in developing countries, from poor rule of law and ineffective courts to corrupt police and security forces. As we have seen in previous chapters, in equilibrium democratic elections should allow citizens to improve government performance by allowing them to sanction errant leaders and vote for politicians that promise to enact reforms. In this chapter, I examine a specific institutional failure with respect to Kenya‘s 2007 election that severely vitiated the accountability mechanism elections are designed to promote.