Summary Mozambique Is Experiencing Dry Weather Conditions, As Normal for This Period of the Year
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Mozambique Food Security Update: September 20, 2000 Summary Mozambique is experiencing dry weather conditions, as normal for this period of the year. However, Vilanculos (Inhambane Province) and Beira Districts (Sofala Province) had above- normal rains during the first and second dekads of August. Overall food security is good because of increased food availability and improved food access. Thanks to the recent harvest, marketed volumes of maize increased considerably during the month and food prices decreased in most locations largely due to good supplies. Land preparations for the first crop season of the 2000/2001 production year have started in some areas of the southern region. However, some 186,400 farm households in central and southern Mozambique face a lack of seeds, tools and fertilizers, largely due to a combination of poverty and poorly developed markets in rural areas. Seed needs, in particular, are tremendously higher this production year (213% higher for maize and 115% for pulses) than in 1999/2000. In some cases, household seed reserves were washed away by the devastating floods and cyclones in February/March. In other cases, crops failed completely and farmers were also left without seeds. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) is working closely with seed companies to guarantee a sufficient supply of seeds on credit for the 2000/2001 production year. Programs to restock chickens, goats and cattle for recovering flood victims are under way in Gaza and Maputo Provinces. Neither major diseases nor water and forage shortages have been reported. This indicates that animals are in good condition. Food availability increased in August as a result of the first season harvest that ended in July. Estimated national-level stocks of maize stood at 163,000 MT at the beginning of August, compared to monthly human consumption needs estimated at 95,000 MT. Maize prices are dropping in most markets located in the formerly flooded southern region. However, these prices remain considerably higher than prices in the northern region. People in Chicualacuala and Massagena districts (Gaza Province) continue to be under very close surveillance due to their slow recovery from the floods. WFP bought 7,000 MT of local white maize for free food distribution to the most vulnerable populations. Church groups and NGOs are also providing significant support to the population in these districts. Six months after the floods, Mozambique has achieved an economic growth rate of 3.8%, a remarkable feat. The Maputo monthly inflation rate decreased slightly as the Mozambican Metical gained value against the US dollar and South African Rand during August. Consumers in both rural and urban areas are currently enjoying low prices due to the availability and good flow of agricultural commodities. As of August 18, 2000, the status of post-floods reconstruction aid pledged at the Rome Conference in May stood at: $154.7 million in reconfirmed pledges; $100.0 million in signed agreements; $64.6 million in disbursements; and $36.3 million received in the treasury. The Ministries of Finance and Planning are coordinating the use of these funds. The National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC), WFP and local authorities are making contingency plans at the district level to improve early warning and disaster preparedness. 1. Overview of Recent Developments 1.1. Rainfall Dry weather conditions prevailed across the country during August, as normal for this period of year. The National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) reports that Vilanculos District (Inhambane Province) and Beira District (Sofala Province) experienced above normal rainfall in the first and second dekads (10-day periods) of August. No waterlogging was observed in either location. 1.2. Agricultural Prospects and Conditions Overall food security remains good in the country thanks to the recent second-season harvest that ended last month in the northern and central regions. There are no reports that indicate post-harvest losses of the main crops ― cereals, beans, cassava and groundnuts ― due to poor storage conditions or pests. However, because crops were harvested with high moisture content, the field staff of the Ministry of Agriculture (MADER) needs to keep a close eye on storage conditions and recommend steps to minimize post-harvest losses. Harvesting of the second-season crops in the southern region is nearly completed. There are no firm figures yet to indicate the contribution of the second-season crops. Land preparation for the first season of the 2000/2001 production year has started in some locations in the southern region. Farmers are expecting rainfall at any time and have started the process of acquiring inputs, including new tools, and selecting seeds. However, in many districts (including the northern and central surplus districts) farmers have difficulties finding new tools through the market. Rural poverty and poor roads links discourage traders from supplying these rural markets. Hand hoes, axes, and implements for animals, in particular, are not readily available. Most districts are also short of fertilizers; one of the most critical constraints to achieving higher yields in food crop production. This situation is particularly bad in several southern and central districts affected by the floods (Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Manica, and Sofala Provinces,) and in some northern districts affected by erratic rain distribution (Nampula and Cabo Delgado Provinces). According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MADER), approximately 186,420 farm households in central and southern Mozambique need seeds and tools for the 2000/2001-production year that starts between mid-October and the beginning of November. Table 1. Projected Seed Needs, Area Planted and Production in Mozambique for 2000/01, compared with 1999/2000 Maize Pulses Cassava 1999/2000 2000/01 1999/2000 2000/01 1999/2000 2000/01 Seeds (MT) 812 2,559 777 1,654 -- -- Area (ha) 1,307,197 1,563,638 418,523 473,696 1,066,382 1,145,072 Production (MT) 1,612,893 1,637,465 234,139 236,283 6,415,446 6,376,932 Source: MADER/SNAP Table 1 shows the official projections of seed needs, area planted and production plans for the 2000/01 production year compared with the 1999/2000 production year. Although projected area planted and crop production for the 2000/01 production year are similar to those of last year, seed needs have increased tremendously. For example, seed needs have increased by 215% for maize and 113% for pulses. The devastating floods are the main cause of this increase. In some cases, household seed reserves were washed away by the devastating floods and cyclones in February/March. In other cases, crops failed completely and farmers were also left without seeds. The Ministry of Agriculture (MADER) is collaborating with seed companies to meet farmer needs. MADER estimates the amount of seeds required and shares these figures with seed companies. These companies then sell seeds on credit to farmers. While the most vulnerable farmers receive free seeds, both MADER and the seed companies prefer to sell seeds rather than give them away. Meanwhile, Pannar Seed Lda plans to sell 1,500 tons of maize, sorghum, millet, sunflower, and vegetable seeds as a business venture without government subsidy. 2. Livestock Production Animal restocking programs are underway in the formerly flooded areas of Manhiça and Marracuene Districts (in Maputo Provinces and Chokwe District (Gaza Province). These programs are carried out mainly by NGOs, together with local authorities. Animals, mostly cattle, are given free to livestock farmers and the first offspring returned to the NGO for distribution to other needy farmers. Some chickens and goats are also distributed. There are no reports of diseases or pest problems or food and water shortages for animals. Livestock are generally enjoying good health and food conditions. 3. Maize Supplies and Market Prices White maize grain is readily available. The National Directorate of Internal Commerce (MIC/DNCI) within the Ministry of Industry and Commerce estimated that available stocks of maize at the beginning of August stood at 163,000 MT while monthly human consumption was around 95,000 MT. Moreover, according to MADER/SNAP, 300,000 MT of maize are available from the recent harvest in the central and northern regions. Imports from South Africa and Swaziland augment supplies in the southern region. Increased supplies go hand in hand with lower prices. Table 2 shows that retail prices Table 2. Retail White Grain Maize Prices in of white maize dropped in most markets Mozambique: June – July 2000 (Metacais/kg) between June and July in the formerly June July Percent flooded southern region. Yet, these prices Change remain considerably higher than prices in the Maputo 3,178 2,747 -13.6 northern region. Xai-Xai 2,143 1,813 -15.4 This is a normal trend for this time of the Maxixe 1,727 1,455 -15.7 year. In the surplus production areas of the Beira 1,034 1,156 11.8 northern and central regions (Nampula, Chimoio 1,371 1,371 0.0 Pemba and Tete), retail prices of white maize Tete 1,040 842 -19.0 in July 2000 were lower than prices in July Nampula 1,001 1,040 3.9 1999. Conversely, retail prices in the Pemba 914 894 -2.2 southern region (Maputo, Xai-Xai and Linchinga 1,429 1,429 0.0 Maxixe) were considerably higher than prices Source: MADER/SIMA in July last year. The increasing availability and lower prices of white maize are reflected in the volume of maize transactions, as measured by the Agricultural Market Information System (SIMA) in major markets (figure 1). Between June and July, the average daily volume of maize transactions jumped by 78% in Manica (central region) and 51% in Maputo (southern region), which is the largest market in the country. Transactions increased by 25% in Nampula (northern region).