Transportation Environment
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URBAN TRANSPORTATION Institute for Global Environmental Strategies global change SysTem for Analyses, Research, and Training dth ENVIRONMENT in KathmanduValley Nepal URBAN TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT and the in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Integrating global carbon concerns into local air pollution management Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Photo: Manish Koirala URBAN By Shobhakar Dhakal TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT and the in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Integrating global carbon concerns into local air pollution management Copyright © 2006 by Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan First edition 2006 Electronic edition published 2006 (http://www.iges.or.jp/en/ue/index.htm) All rights reserved. Inquiries regarding this publication copyright should be addressed to IGES in writing. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, includ- ing photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from IGES. Although every effort has been made to ensure objectivity and balance, the printing of a book or translation does not imply endorsement or acquiescence with its conclusions by IGES or by IGES financers. IGES maintains a position of neutrality at all times on issues concerning public policy. Conclusions that are reached in IGES publications should be understood to be those of the authors and not attributed to staff-members, officers, directors, trustees or funders of IGES or to IGES itself. While considerable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of thus report, the Urban Environmental Management Project of IGES would be pleased to hear of any errors or omissions together with the source of that information. Copy edited by Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal Cover photo by Manish Koirala with permission. Artwork (illustrations) by Rabindra Manadhar Printed and bound by Worldwide Print Support, Tel (+977-1) 5555989 Printed in Nepal. ISBN: 4-88788-028-6 ii Acknowledgements This study was sponsored by information, but he also was instru- START International Secretariat mental in organising a workshop under the auspices of the Advanced conducted by the author in associa- Institute on Urbanisation, Emis- tion with the Ministry of Population sion and Global Carbon Cycle. and Environment (MOPE) of His The author highly appreciates the Majesty’s Government of Nepal support Professor Roland Fuchs and (HMG/N) on 29-30 July, 2004. Mr. Dr. Virji Hassan, the Director and Dilip Khatiwada of MOPE kindly Deputy Director of START respec- offered help as the author’s coor- tively, provided throughout this dinating counterpart. The author study. Prof. Richard Rockwell of the also benefited greatly by discussing University of Connecticut and Dr. various aspects of the transport Bob Harris of the National Centre and environment problems in the for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Valley with a number of individu- USA also deserve recognition. The als, including Dr. Bhakta Bahadur author is grateful to Dr. Lee Schip- Ale of the Institute of Engineering, per of the World Resource Institute Tribhuwan University; Mr. Bikash in Washington D.C. for his sugges- Pandey of Winrock International/ tions and support. Nepal; Mr. Bhushan Tuladhar of Clean Energy Nepal; Professor Ram The author would like to acknowl- Manohar Shrestha of the Asian In- edge a number of other individuals stitute of Technology; Mr. Chiran- for their strong support, varied jibi Gautam, a technical advisor at assistance and useful suggestions. DANIDA; and a number of other The assistance of Mr. Anil Raut was individuals from Nepal Oil Corpora- the most important, for, without tion (NOC), the Kathmandu Valley it, this study would not have been Traffic Police Office (KVTPO), the completed. Anil not only helped Department of Transport Manage- to collect data and other relevant ment (DOTM), and MOPE. iii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT iv List of abbreviations ASIF Activities, structure, intensity, fuel BASE Baseline scenario CDM Clean Development Mechanism CNG Compressed natural gas CO Carbon monoxide CO2 Carbon dioxide DOTM Department of Transport Management, Nepal ELECTRIC Scenario based on increasing the number of electric vehicles EURO Scenario based on gradually reducing emission standards GHG Greenhouse gas HC Hydrocarbon IGES Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LEAP Long-range energy alternative planning LPG Liquid petroleum gas MOPE Ministry of Population and Environment, Nepal NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NOx Nitrogen oxides PACKAGE Scenario based on implementing a comprehensive set of measures PM10 Particulate matters less than 10 microns in diameter POP Scenario based on reducing in-migration to the Kathmandu Valley PUBLIC Scenario based on a shift in mode from private to public transportation SO2 Sulfur dioxide SPM Suspended particulate matters START Global Change SysTem for Analyses, Research and Training VOC Volatile organic compound v URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT vi Table of contents Acknowledgements iii List of abbreviations v Executive summary xi chaper ONE About this study 1 1.1 Global context 3 1.2 Past research 5 1.3 Local context 6 1.4 Goals, research questions and objectives 7 chapter TWO Asian urban transport and environment issues: Regional perspectives 9 chapter THREE Nepal's national context 15 chapter FOUR Kathmandu: A city experiencing rapid change 23 4.1 Population, urbanisation and land use 25 4.2 Air pollution 29 4.3 Transportation picture 30 4.4 Emissions from motor vehicles 38 4.5 Policies and institutional arrangements for managing emissions from motor vehicles 39 chapter FIVE Analytical framework 41 5.1 ASIF framework 43 5.2 Methodology and data 45 vii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT chapter SIX Past trends in energy consumption and pollutant emissions: Historical trends in travel demand, energy consumption and pollutant emission 53 6.1 Travel demand 55 6.2 Energy consumption 56 6.3 Emission of air pollutants and CO2 61 chapter SEVEN Future scenarios 65 7.1 Baseline scenario (BASE) 67 7.2 Alternative scenarios—definitions and criteria for evaluation 72 7.3 Implications of alternative scenarios 77 chapter EIGHT Removing barriers to the implementation of the scenarios 87 8.1 Synergies between and conflicts over air pollution and CO2 mitigation 89 8.2 Policies and implementation gaps: The ASIF approach 91 8.3 The nature of short- and long-term measures: The results of the policy dialogue 93 chapter NINE Conclusions and recommendations 97 References 105 Annexes 111 Figures Figure 3.1 Real GDP growth at constant 1994/95 prices 17 Figure 4.1 Expansion of urban settlements in Kathmandu Valley over time 26 Figure 4.2 Population growth in the Kathmandu Valley 27 Figure 4.3 PM10 concentrations in the Valley 29 Figure 4.4 Average annual growth rates of vehicles in the Kathmandu Valley 32 Figure 4.5 Increase in the number of registered vehicles in the Kathmandu Valley 33 Figure 4.6 Composition of the registered vehicle population in the Kathmandu Valley 33 Figure 4.7 Age of registered vehicles in 2004 34 Figure 4.8 Trends in the number of traffic accidents in the Valley 36 Figure 5.1 Structure of the study components 44 Figure 5.2 Structure of analysis using LEAP 49 Figure 6.1 Structure of passenger travel demand in the Valley between 1989 and 2004 55 Figure 6.2 Share of travel modes in the Valley between 1989 and 2004 56 Figure 6.3 Energy consumption by fuel in the Valley (1989-2004) 57 viii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT Figure 6.4 Energy consumption by passenger transportation in the Valley by fuel type 59 Figure 6.5 Energy use of passenger transportation in the Valley by vehicle type 59 Figure 6.6 Structure of total energy consumed by passenger transportation in the Valley 60 Figure 6.7 Average energy intensity of various transportation modes in 2004 in the Valley 60 Figure 6.8 Emissions of various air pollutants in the Valley 61 Figure 6.9 Comparison of emission intensities of various travel modes in grams/passenger-km 63 Figure 7.1 Indicators for the numbers of vehicles in intermediate years in the baseline scenario 68 Figure 7.2 Vehicles per km of road in BASE 68 Figure 7.3 Energy consumption in BASE and the shares of fuel and vehicle types 70 Figure 7.4 Emissions of priority pollutants in BASE 71 Figure 7.5 Energy consumption in alternative scenarios and reductions from BASE 78 Figure 7.6 Electricity consumption in alternative scenarios and percentage increase from BASE 79 Figure 7.7 Share of electricity in total energy use by passenger transportation in alternative scenarios 79 Figure 7.8 CO2 emissions in alternative scenarios and CO2 intensity of passenger transportation 80 Figure 7.9 PM10 reduction potential of alternative scenarios from BASE 81 Figure A1 Valley population: past and future 119 Figure A2 Travel demand under assumptions of low, moderate, and high economic growth 119 Tables Table 3.1 Expenditure on and revenue from Nepal's road sector (in million rupees) 19 Table 3.2 Selected indicators of transport