RA TRANSPORTATION URBAN Institute for Global Environmental Strategies global change SysTem for Analyses, Research, and Training dth ENVIRONMENT nKtmnualyNepal KathmanduValley in URBAN TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT

and the in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Integrating global carbon concerns into local air pollution management Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Photo: Manish Koirala URBAN By Shobhakar Dhakal TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT

and the in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Integrating global carbon concerns into local air pollution management Copyright © 2006 by Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan

First edition 2006 Electronic edition published 2006 (http://www.iges.or.jp/en/ue/index.htm)

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Copy edited by Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal

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ii Acknowledgements

This study was sponsored by information, but he also was instru- START International Secretariat mental in organising a workshop under the auspices of the Advanced conducted by the author in associa- Institute on Urbanisation, Emis- tion with the Ministry of Population sion and Global Carbon Cycle. and Environment (MOPE) of His The author highly appreciates the Majesty’s Government of Nepal support Professor Roland Fuchs and (HMG/N) on 29-30 July, 2004. Mr. Dr. Virji Hassan, the Director and Dilip Khatiwada of MOPE kindly Deputy Director of START respec- offered help as the author’s coor- tively, provided throughout this dinating counterpart. The author study. Prof. Richard Rockwell of the also benefited greatly by discussing University of Connecticut and Dr. various aspects of the transport Bob Harris of the National Centre and environment problems in the for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Valley with a number of individu- USA also deserve recognition. The als, including Dr. Bhakta Bahadur author is grateful to Dr. Lee Schip- Ale of the Institute of Engineering, per of the World Resource Institute Tribhuwan University; Mr. Bikash in Washington D.C. for his sugges- Pandey of Winrock International/ tions and support. Nepal; Mr. Bhushan Tuladhar of Clean Energy Nepal; Professor Ram The author would like to acknowl- Manohar Shrestha of the Asian In- edge a number of other individuals stitute of Technology; Mr. Chiran- for their strong support, varied jibi Gautam, a technical advisor at assistance and useful suggestions. DANIDA; and a number of other The assistance of Mr. Anil Raut was individuals from Nepal Oil Corpora- the most important, for, without tion (NOC), the Kathmandu Valley it, this study would not have been Traffic Police Office (KVTPO), the completed. Anil not only helped Department of Transport Manage- to collect data and other relevant ment (DOTM), and MOPE. iii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

iv List of abbreviations

ASIF Activities, structure, intensity, fuel BASE Baseline scenario CDM Clean Development Mechanism CNG Compressed natural gas CO Carbon monoxide

CO2 Carbon dioxide DOTM Department of Transport Management, Nepal ELECTRIC Scenario based on increasing the number of electric vehicles EURO Scenario based on gradually reducing emission standards GHG Greenhouse gas HC Hydrocarbon IGES Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LEAP Long-range energy alternative planning LPG Liquid petroleum gas MOPE Ministry of Population and Environment, Nepal NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards

NOx Nitrogen oxides PACKAGE Scenario based on implementing a comprehensive set of measures

PM10 Particulate matters less than 10 microns in diameter POP Scenario based on reducing in-migration to the Kathmandu Valley PUBLIC Scenario based on a shift in mode from private to public transportation

SO2 Sulfur dioxide SPM Suspended particulate matters START Global Change SysTem for Analyses, Research and Training VOC Volatile organic compound

v URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

vi Table of contents

Acknowledgements iii List of abbreviations v Executive summary xi chaper ONE About this study 1 1.1 Global context 3 1.2 Past research 5 1.3 Local context 6 1.4 Goals, research questions and objectives 7 chapter TWO Asian urban transport and environment issues: Regional perspectives 9 chapter THREE Nepal's national context 15 chapter FOUR Kathmandu: A city experiencing rapid change 23 4.1 Population, urbanisation and land use 25 4.2 Air pollution 29 4.3 Transportation picture 30 4.4 Emissions from motor vehicles 38 4.5 Policies and institutional arrangements for managing emissions from motor vehicles 39 chapter FIVE Analytical framework 41 5.1 ASIF framework 43 5.2 Methodology and data 45

vii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

chapter SIX Past trends in energy consumption and pollutant emissions: Historical trends in travel demand, energy consumption and pollutant emission 53 6.1 Travel demand 55 6.2 Energy consumption 56

6.3 Emission of air pollutants and CO2 61

chapter SEVEN Future scenarios 65 7.1 Baseline scenario (BASE) 67 7.2 Alternative scenarios—definitions and criteria for evaluation 72 7.3 Implications of alternative scenarios 77

chapter EIGHT Removing barriers to the implementation of the scenarios 87

8.1 Synergies between and conflicts over air pollution and CO2 mitigation 89 8.2 Policies and implementation gaps: The ASIF approach 91 8.3 The nature of short- and long-term measures: The results of the policy dialogue 93

chapter NINE Conclusions and recommendations 97

References 105 Annexes 111

Figures Figure 3.1 Real GDP growth at constant 1994/95 prices 17 Figure 4.1 Expansion of urban settlements in Kathmandu Valley over time 26 Figure 4.2 Population growth in the Kathmandu Valley 27

Figure 4.3 PM10 concentrations in the Valley 29 Figure 4.4 Average annual growth rates of vehicles in the Kathmandu Valley 32 Figure 4.5 Increase in the number of registered vehicles in the Kathmandu Valley 33 Figure 4.6 Composition of the registered vehicle population in the Kathmandu Valley 33 Figure 4.7 Age of registered vehicles in 2004 34 Figure 4.8 Trends in the number of traffic accidents in the Valley 36 Figure 5.1 Structure of the study components 44 Figure 5.2 Structure of analysis using LEAP 49 Figure 6.1 Structure of passenger travel demand in the Valley between 1989 and 2004 55 Figure 6.2 Share of travel modes in the Valley between 1989 and 2004 56 Figure 6.3 Energy consumption by fuel in the Valley (1989-2004) 57 viii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Figure 6.4 Energy consumption by passenger transportation in the Valley by fuel type 59 Figure 6.5 Energy use of passenger transportation in the Valley by vehicle type 59 Figure 6.6 Structure of total energy consumed by passenger transportation in the Valley 60 Figure 6.7 Average energy intensity of various transportation modes in 2004 in the Valley 60 Figure 6.8 Emissions of various air pollutants in the Valley 61 Figure 6.9 Comparison of emission intensities of various travel modes in grams/passenger-km 63 Figure 7.1 Indicators for the numbers of vehicles in intermediate years in the baseline scenario 68 Figure 7.2 Vehicles per km of road in BASE 68 Figure 7.3 Energy consumption in BASE and the shares of fuel and vehicle types 70 Figure 7.4 Emissions of priority pollutants in BASE 71 Figure 7.5 Energy consumption in alternative scenarios and reductions from BASE 78 Figure 7.6 Electricity consumption in alternative scenarios and percentage increase from BASE 79 Figure 7.7 Share of electricity in total energy use by passenger transportation in alternative scenarios 79

Figure 7.8 CO2 emissions in alternative scenarios and CO2 intensity of passenger transportation 80

Figure 7.9 PM10 reduction potential of alternative scenarios from BASE 81 Figure A1 Valley population: past and future 119 Figure A2 Travel demand under assumptions of low, moderate, and high economic growth 119

Tables Table 3.1 Expenditure on and revenue from Nepal's road sector (in million rupees) 19 Table 3.2 Selected indicators of transport and environment for South Asian countries, 1997 22 Table 4.1 Peak-hour modal split in Kathmandu Valley 31 Table 4.2 Typical seating capacities of public transportation in Kathmandu Valley 35 Table 4.3 Emission standards for in-use vehicles (2000) 38 Table 5.1 Factors and challenges in the ASIF framework 44 Table 5.2 Critical parameters of the estimation of energy and emissions in 2000 46 Table 5.3 Vehicle emission factors for different pollutants 48 Table 6.1 Comparison of estimated energy consumption of various modes of passenger transportation 58 Table 6.2 Shares of vehicles and modes in the total pollutant emissions in the Valley in 2004 62 Table 7.1 Estimated average emission factors of vehicle fleet in 2025 in g/l 69 Table 7.2 Number of vehicles reduced from BASE in 2025 81 Table 7.3 The number of electric in 2025 in alternative scenarios 82 Table 7.4 Percentage reduction from BASE of priority pollutants in alternative scenarios 83 Table 7.5 Performance of various scenarios over BASE in 2025 85 Table 8.1 ASIF portrayal of the PACKAGE scenario and the challenge to its implementation 92 Table 8.2 Results of the policy dialogue with stakeholders: short- and long-term solutions to transport-energy-environment problems 94 Table A1 Total number of vehicles registered in the Bagmati Zone 118 Table A2 Estimated number of vehicles in baseline scenario 120 Table A3 Average fuel efficiencies of new cars 121 Table A4 Average fuel efficiencies of vehicle fleets 122 ix URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

x Executive summary

This study presents analyses an accounting model, a number of of the current status of the emis- scenarios that reflect local condi- sion of air pollutants and carbon tions and potential intervention dioxide (CO2) and the energy use avenues were formulated. These in the Kathmandu Valley which is scenarios were then evaluated using associated with urban transporta- a few indicators that are relevant to tion. It also includes a discussion the local context (changes in PM10 of past trends and future scenarios emissions, number of vehicles, in order to help identify plausible and conservation and utilisation of synergistic mitigation measures. In indigenous energy resources) and this pursuit, the study developed the global context (mitigation of CO2 an inventory of priority air pollut- emissions). ants, energy use and CO2 emission associated with passenger transpor- The results of this study indicate tation in the Kathmandu Valley for that Kathmandu Valley’s motorised the past and projected these values travel demand increased 8.7-fold into the future with the help of a in 2004 from nearly one billion bottom-up, dynamic accounting passenger-km in 1989 and suggest model and a scenario approach. In that it will increase to 27 billion the process, a policy dialogue was passenger-km by 2025. Despite the held with relevant stakeholders in drastic increase, the modal share of the Valley to identify issues of local public and private transport modes priority (which were identified as have changed little since 1989:

PM10 emissions, congestion and public transport still meets a little energy use), past achievements, over 50 per cent of the demand for and the potential present and future motorised travel. As a result, the avenues for policy interventions in number of vehicles operating in the the Valley. Using the outcomes of Valley will triple, expanded from this dialogue, available data, and the 170,00 currently operating to xi URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

about half a million by 2025. In the better than private transportation same period, the rate of ownership from the viewpoints of reducing of cars and motorcycles is expected vehicle numbers, saving energy and to double and the length of road meeting travel demand. available per vehicle to decline by one-third. The consumption of The data from six air quality moni- energy by passenger transportation toring stations in the Valley show in 2004 was seven times greater than that the concentrations of most of the 658 thousand giga-joules (GJ) the priority pollutants are within consumed in 1989. Projections for the limits of the National Ambient 2025 suggest that energy consump- Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

tion will increase only about 2.2 Concentrations of PM10, however, times as more fuel-efficient vehicles are twice the NAAQS limits in penetrate the system. As is the case winter months. While it is estimated

now, gasoline is expected to be the that PM10 emissions from passenger dominant fuel; electricity and LPG transportation increased by 4.5 times will make nominal contributions. in the five years from 1989 to 2004, emissions are expected to decrease Private cars and motorcycles, which over the next five years if emission make up 71% of the total number of from in-use emissions does not operational vehicles, currently meet increase and if the current trends just 41% of the total travel demand in other variables persist. The likely

but consume 53% of the total energy. decrease in PM10 emission can be at- High-occupancy public transport tributed to several factors: increased vehicles like buses and minibuses penetration of EURO-I vehicles into comprise only 1.4% of the total the fleet, expected improvements in number of vehicles but meet 37% the fuel efficiencies of new vehicles, of the travel demand and consume phasing out of vehicles older than just 13% of the total energy. Using 20 years, banning of two-stroke the amount of energy consumed per three-wheelers and motorcycles, passenger-km on a bus as a standard and slower growth in travel demand unit, we find that minibuses use for three to four years due to the 20% more energy than buses, that expected slowdown in economic motorcycles and microbuses use growth. The decrease will be short- twice as much energy as buses and lived, however—unless there is a that private cars use 6.5 times more. considerable tightening of emis- It is clear that public transport is far sion standards—as the emission xii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT performance of newly introduced, transport to low-occupancy public EURO-I-compliant vehicles will transport which runs on petroleum decline and the number of vehicles products (gasoline, diesel or liquid will rise. As a result, the level of petroleum gas [LPG]) will not help

PM10 emission will catch up to and to reduce CO2 emissions. Such a even exceed the present level by shift would, however, substantially

2025. Although other priority air reduce PM10 emissions. pollutants are within the NAAQS limits, future standards may need to According to our survey, past and be more stringent because the con- ongoing policy initiatives and coun- centrations of CO, nitrogen oxides termeasures are not comprehensive;

(NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are instead, they focus mostly on con- expected to increase significantly in trolling emissions at the tail-pipes the future. of vehicles. This study emphasises the need for developing a compre-

The volume of CO2 emission from hensive policy accompanied by a set passenger transportation in the of practical countermeasures which Valley is less than it is in cities in cover all major components of the developed regions of the world activity-structure-intensity-fuel because of the low per capita vehicle (ASIF) framework. It also under- ownership rates. This rate, however, scores the fact that small pro-active has already increased 5.2 times since and upstream countermeasures such 1989 due to the increasing number as managing travel demand and pro- of private cars and motorcycles and moting a modal shift towards public it is estimated that by 2025 it will transportation will reduce a good have doubled from the 537 thou- deal of pressure on downstream sand tonnes produced in 2004. Most countermeasures such as mitigating of the CO2 emitted will come from tail-pipe emissions. burning gasoline. A person who travels by private car or motorcycle Based on the baseline scenario, the will generate over four times as many study has formulated five alterna- grams of CO2 emission per km as tive scenarios. Each incorporates one who travels by bus or minibus. a number of short- and long-term

Interestingly, the level of CO2 emis- countermeasures. They focus sions from microbuses is as high as respectively on 1) reducing travel that from private cars. As a result, demand by curbing in-migration, encouraging a move from private 2) promoting public transportation xiii URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

over private cars and motorcycles, have no impact on congestion. For 3) utilising electric vehicles on its part, implementing progressively a large scale, 4) introducing a more stringent emission standards- progressive tightening of emission up to EURO-III in 2015—would standards, and 5) implementing a not help reduce congestion or save package of measures with small- energy and would not utilise more scale interventions designed with electricity. Some of the core mes- various ASIF components in mind. sages from the analyses of the five scenarios follow: The study shows that each scenario • Implementing EURO-II norms has certain advantages but that none from 2010 can significantly alone would be able to meet all five reduce emissions over the major criteria for the city: control- current EURO-I norms, but the

ling PM10 emissions, saving energy, implementation of EURO-III for using more indigenous energy new vehicles in 2015 would have sources, reducing vehicle numbers nominal benefits by 2025. to relieve congestion, and cutting • Tightening emission standards

CO2 emissions. While it concludes is very effective in reducing SO2,

that substantially reducing travel PM10 and NOx. It is, therefore, a demand may be able to address all necessary but insufficient step. the objectives, it also recognises that • The introduction of a large-scale this is a long-term measure (and one bus system as a means to improve which will not have much effect in public transportation will con- the short-term) and that failures in siderably reduce the number of implementation of various urban cars, motorcycles, and low-occu- development plans of the past call pancy public transport vehicles into question the likelihood of its and thereby reduce congestion success. It shows that increasing and energy usage. the share of demand met by buses and minibuses by 15% from the In sum, a package of counter- baseline scenario, for example, measures designed to bring about would relieve congestion but result small-scale improvements in each

in a 23% increase in PM10 in 2025. component of the ASIF framework The introduction of electric vehicles is the best way to address the mul- on a large scale, on the other hand, tiple objectives of the city. Such a would yield nominal advantages for package would, by itself, embrace

PM10 and CO2 reduction but would all of the objectives each scenario xiv URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT independently addresses. Another ures, priorities may differ and likely advantage of introducing in- conflicts may arise, but to meet cremental interventions in multiple the overall objectives of the city sectors is less complexity in terms outlined at the policy dialogue–con- of management and political fea- trolling PM10 emissions, saving oil, sibility of implementation than to using more electricity, mitigating doing too much in only one sector. congestion and reducing CO2 emis- This balanced package can reduce sions–the best choice is to adopt this

CO2 emissions by 20%, PM10 emis- set of policy measures, whether CO2, sions by 47%, the number of cars the global objective, is considered and motorcycles by 132,824, and or not. Because of this synergy, the energy use by 18%. Electricity usage Kathmandu Valley can benefit from will rise by 8 million KWH from the climate policy-motivated interna- baseline case in 2025 alone. tional financial mechanisms such as Clean Development Mechanisms This study shows that there is a (CDMs) and from other mechanisms strong synergy between local and introduced by bilateral and multi- global objectives in the Kathmandu lateral institutions. Valley. For specific countermeas-

xv URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

xvi chaper ONE

About this study Photo: Dilip K. Munankarmi

About the study About the study About the study About t 3 Global context About the study About the study About the study About the study 5 Past research About the study About the study About the study About the stu 6 Local context About the study About the study About the study About th 7 Goals, research questions and objectives About the study About the study About the study About the study About the study About the study About the study About the s About the study About the study About the study About the study chapter ONE ABOUT THE STUDY

1.1 Global context

The global environmental conse- not all local measures will reduce quences of anthropogenic green- CO2 emissions, there are many op- house gas (GHG) emissions are an portunities for cities to consider urgent concern in the scientific global environmental considerations community. The United Nations in their local air pollution manage- Framework Convention on Climate ment practices. Regardless of the Change (UNFCCC), which was idiosyncratic attributes of any given adopted in May 1992, sets an ulti- city—its size, income, or scale of mate objective of stabilising GHG emissions—it must create a synergy concentrations in the atmosphere between local and global interven- at a level that will prevent danger- tions. ous human-induced interference with the climate system. The Third In a recently published report Assessment Report of the Inter-gov- entitled “Mobility 2030: Meeting ernmental Panel on Climate Change the Challenges to Sustainability,” (IPCC) states clearly that the factor the World Business Council for primarily responsible for climatic Sustainable Development (WBCSD) changes is the emission of anthro- estimates that worldwide transport- pogenic GHGs. Cities, especially related GHG emissions (from well to rapidly growing ones, can play a wheel and including air, water and vital role in mitigating the emission road transportation) will increase of anthropogenic GHGs, both di- from slightly over six giga-tonnes 1 2 rectly and indirectly. The nature of (Gt) of CO2 in the year 2000 to over urban transportation in the cities of 14 Gt by the year 2050 (WBCSD, developing countries is crucial due 2004). Light-duty vehicles are to rapid growth in motorisation and responsible for the majority of emis- the consequent upsurges in levels sions, while freight trucks and air of local air pollution and carbon transportation are the second and dioxide (CO2) emissions. Though third greatest emitters respectively

1. Direct emissions. 3 2. Emissions embedded in materials and service. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

(pp 37). The International Energy non-motorised modes, buses, rapid Agency estimates that globally road transit and other measures) vis-à-vis transport accounts for the majority private transportation, it does bring

of CO2 emissions from the transport several major issues to the forefront: sector and that road transport alone the need to cope with growing mo-

generated 18% of the world’s CO2 torisation, find solutions to increas-

emissions from fuel combustion in ing CO2 emissions which take into the year 2000 (IEA, 2002). In the account air pollution mitigation, case of OECD countries, this share promote energy saving, and mitigate stands at 23%. The WBCSD projec- congestion in dense and growing

tions indicate that CO2 emissions Asian metropolises. from each transport mode and from every region around the world will Asian cities, unlike North American increase but that the majority of the and European cities, tend to be additional growth will come from denser at the centre and to sprawl developing regions. In particular, at the periphery. Sprawling leads to the 18% and 29% declines in energy the creation of largely unorganised consumption through improved peri-urban areas that over-stretch the energy efficiency in light-duty distribution and transport systems vehicles and heavy-duty trucks re- of the city. The emergence of peri- spectively between 2000 and 2050,3 urban areas outside of Bangkok which is the only factor slated to and the construction of fourteen reduce emissions, will not offset the satellite towns outside Beijing’s fifth projected 123% and 241% rates of ring road, for example, may place growth in the transport activities of additional burdens on both cities these types of vehicles. China and if urban functions are not well al- India together surpass the transport- located. The densification of cities related emissions from all other is desirable because it promotes Asian countries due to their size a high utilisation rate of urban in- and to their rapid rates of motorisa- frastructures, increases the cost ef- tion; this was the case in the year fectiveness of public transportation, 2000 and will again be the case in and results in compact distribution 2050. Although the WBCSD report and supply networks of energy and does not pay enough attention to other services. As a city becomes non-technological aspects of mobil- denser, however, it becomes more ity issues and issues such as the role challenging to manage concerns like of public transportation (railways, air pollution from motor vehicles, 4 3. The global average; values differ from region to region. chapter ONE ABOUT THE STUDY congestion, and urban environmen- taking into account air pollution, tal services such as water, wastewa- energy saving, congestion, and CO2 ter and solid waste management. emissions. Although safety, equity, Recent estimates by the UN Popula- financial stability and other issues tion Division show that about half of also play a role in the debate, this the mega cities (cities with popula- author believes that congestion, tions over ten million) and medium- CO2 emissions and the development size cities (cities with populations of public transportation (and, in over one million) worldwide will particular, mass transportation) will be in Asia by 2015 (UN, 2002). be the most serious challenges in

Although CO2 emissions are sig- the next 20 to 30 years. The WBCSD nificantly less from Asian countries study supports this position. Its than from OECD countries, Asian modeling shows that transport- countries are urbanising rapidly related conventional emissions will and their cities are quickly becom- decline sharply in OECD countries ing economically developed. If we over the next two decades and that in consider Asian giants such as China non-OECD countries levels of lead, and India, it becomes clear that the CO and volatile organic compounds current trends of motorisation alone (VOCs) will gradually decrease but will pose a serious challenge. To that levels of NOx and PM10 may make mobility sustainable in the not start declining for another two future requires balancing private, decades. public and mass transportation and

1.2 Past research

The nature of the transportation- pipe emissions. The actual relation- energy-emission complex in the ship, however, is far more complex. cities of many developing countries, Such a limited consideration often especially those in South Asia, is results in unwanted consequences, poorly understood. A number of or a “rebound effect”4. What is studies have been carried out in lacking is a comprehensive and in- cities, but they focus merely on tail- tegrated analysis (and a strategic ap-

4. The “rebound effect” refers to unaccounted for negative implications (or feedback loops). For example, road construction and widening decreases congestion but may increase the number of vehicles and their usage on roads. In practice, gains made from supply side management often increase the scale 5 of the problem rather than solving it. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

proach) involving the interaction of planning, land-use and core trans- urbanisation, transportation, energy, portation studies analyse emissions and emissions (local air pollution solely as a function of travel demand and carbon). The lacuna exists even and automobile dependency; they in the case of well-studied Asian usually limit their recommenda- cities such as New Delhi and Beijing tions to appropriate ways to reduce and other cities outside Asia. The travel demand and automobile shortcoming is primarily due to the dependency. The studies of energy differences between and the limita- planners, in contrast, start from the tions of the sector-specific approach perspective of a technological fix, of urban planners, transportation fuel substitution and fuel quality. engineers and energy-environment These two approaches are seldom experts. The existing literature integrated. This study will attempt points to two clear trends in the to remedy that deficiency by pursu- nature of studies on the factors ing an integrated approach. driving energy and emissions. Urban

1.3 Local context Kathmandu Valley suffers from • Aging vehicles serious air pollution (Shrestha and • Weak institutional capacity and Malla, 1996; Shah and Nagpal, arrangement; widespread insti- 1997; Dhakal, 1996; Devkota, 1993; tutional failure LEADERS, 1999). Piecing together • Weak enforcement of emission a number of past studies yields an standards and inspection and outline of the major problems the maintenance (I&M) systems for Valley faces: in-use vehicles • Growing congestion and supply- • Low-quality fuels and wide- side problems spread fuel adulteration • Chaotic public transportation • Serious air pollution The concentrations of pollutants, • Rapid growth in the number of mainly particulate matters, in the private cars and motorcycles Valley exceed WHO guidelines5 • Two- and three-wheelers with by several times. Measurements

two-stroke engines show that the 24-hour average PM10

3 3 6 5. 70 mg/m and 120 mg/m are the 24-hour averages for PM10 and TSP respectively. chapter ONE ABOUT THE STUDY concentrations are 225, 135 and studies consider the implications 126 mg/m3 and that TSP concentra- of different options for meeting the tions are 376, 214 and 137 mg/m3 energy demands and controlling respectively in the core, sub-core the environmental emissions of the and remote parts of the city (NESS, transportation sector of the Valley. 1999). Since Kathmandu is sur- The most important ones are Dhakal rounded by mountains, topographic (2003a), Shrestha and Malla (1996), condi-tions exacerbate the pollut- Pradhan (1994) and Adhikari (1997). ant concentrations and accelerate Dhakal (2003a) focuses on passenger the photochemical reaction rates transportation, while Shrestha and responsible for smog formation Malla (1996) inventory pollutants and visibility loss. Visibility has rather than pose options. There is a decreased significantly from 1970 to clear need for studies which explain 1993 (Shrestha, 1995). Kathmandu the holistic interaction between Valley residents are exposed to high urbanisation, transportation and concentrations of PM10 in their daily emissions. Although the scale of CO2 lives and their health and welfare is emissions from Kathmandu Valley seriously threatened by pollutants. is not likely to be large, studies of Studies report that the transporta- the synergies and conflicts between tion sector is the major contributor local pollution management and a (Shrestha and Malla, 1996; Shah carbon-friendly development path and Nagpal, 1997). Only a few ought to be carried out.

1.4 Goals, research questions and objectives

The goal of this study is to con- energy and emissions and provided tribute towards reducing local air plausible strategies for overcoming pollution and GHG emissions by the problems detected. producing scientifically sound analyses of various options of The study addresses the following practical policy significance in the specific questions: Kathmandu Valley. To do so, this • Among the various factors which research project has created a better govern air pollution and CO2 understanding of the interactions emissions from transportation, among urbanisation, transportation, which are the most important?

7 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

• What strategies can reduce to institutional, technological, financial, geographic, socio- energy use, air pollution and CO2 emissions? cultural, and regulatory (stand- • What are the implications of ards, rules and regulations) these strategies for energy use, sectors to use for framing possible strategies air pollution and CO2 emissions? What barriers might impede the • Develop a simple, bottom-up implementation of such strate- systems model for energy use gies? and emissions • Quantify the implications of The objectives of this project were various scenarios formulated defined as follows: using different strategies • Create an up-to-date and time series quantitative database of This study considers only passenger various factors governing energy transportation and excludes trucks use and emissions from transpor- and tankers. It was carried out in tation conjunction with a series of other • Collect up-to-date qualitative studies that the principal investiga- information related to transpor- tor is involved in at the Institute for tation, energy use and emissions, Global Environmental Strategies such as information pertaining (IGES).

8 chapter TWO Asian urban transport and environment issues Regional perspectives Photo: Naoko Matsumoto

Asian urban transport and environment issues Regional perspect Asian urban transport and environment issues Regional perspectives Asian urban transport and environment issues Regional perspective Asian urban transport and environment issues Regional perspectives Asian urban transport and environment issues Regional perspectives Asian urban transport and environment issues Regional persp chapter TWO ASIAN URBAN TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT ISSUES REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES

The impacts of urban transport now taking place in ten in rapidly on air pollution in Asian cities are industrialising cities. The result significant and have been gradually is that managing air pollution has increasing over the last few decades become a greater burden than it ever (ADB, 2003). In Japanese cities such was.6 In big cities, industries are as Kitakyushu, Kawasaki, Osaka, slowly but steadily being relocated and Tokyo, the levels of traditional to the peripheries of cities or even air pollution produced by indus- outside city boundaries. One study tries—sulfur oxides, smoke and demonstrates that the consistent rise dust—have dramatically declined in the tertiary sector and fall in the in the last four decades; urban primary industry in 22 East Asian transport-related air pollution, such cities (Dhakal and Kaneko, 2002), has made cities slowly become more as NOx and SPM, however, is posing an increasingly serious challenge commercial. As this change occurs, to policy makers. Rapidly industri- urban mobility, rather than levels alising cities in North Asia such as of industrialisation, gradually has Beijing, Shanghai and South East become the primary determinant of Asian cities such as Ho Chi Minh urban air pollution. (Hanoi), Bangkok, Jakarta and Manila exhibit a similar trend. On the one Epidemiological studies show that hand, industry-related air pollutants air pollution results in thousands are decreasing, but, on the other of deaths and a number of health hand, transport-related pollutants problems in cities. It also increases are becoming increasingly difficult medical costs and decreases pro- to control (IGES, 2004). Due to rapid ductivity. The following pollutants motorisation and little competi- released by urban transport pose a tion for private modes, time-space threat to health: lead, dust (due to re- 7 compression is being experienced: suspension), PM, NOx, and VOCs. issues that evolved gradually over The photochemical oxidant ozone, forty years in developed cities are which is formed by NOx and VOCs 6. For more discussion of the “telescopic time-space compression” of urban environmental issues, see Marcotullio and Lee (2003). 7. Other pollutants, such as carcinogenic poly-nuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and aldehydes 11 are also present. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

in the presence of heat and sunlight, of air pollutants and that its health is another significant pollutant. Of impact runs into millions of dollars course, transport is only one of many (Shah and Nagpal, 1997). Another contributors to urban air pollution, study conducted by the World but as household cooking switches Bank in Mumbai, Shanghai, Manila, to modern fuels (gas, LPG, and elec- Bangkok, Krakow and Santiago indi- tricity); as low-quality industrial cates that the total social cost of air fuels like lignite or low-grade coals pollution in these cities was as high and dirty heavy diesel are replaced as 2.6 billion 1993 US$ (Lvovsky et by cleaner coals, oils and natural al., 2000). A 1998 study of Delhi sug- gas; and as industries are moved out gested that 7,500 premature deaths, of cities, the contribution of transport four million hospital admissions rises dramatically. Stationary sources and 242 million incidences of minor are easy to spot and regulate, espe- sickness could be avoided if air cially as they often cause annoyance pollution conformed to the WHO- to the polluters themselves. Mobile suggested levels in areas where the sources, in contrast, are harder to transport sector accounts for over spot and regulate, and rarely disturb 70% of air pollution (Xie et al., polluters directly. 1998). A recent report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) shows

The impacts of these pollutants that SPM and PM10 levels in Asian are highly location-specific. Before cities are higher than WHO and U.S. leaded gasoline was phased out, lead EPA 1997 limits respectively (1990- was a major health threat. Studies 1999 average, citing WHO’s Air estimate that in Bangkok there were Information Management Database). 400 additional deaths per year due In particular, SPM concentrations to the effects of lead (Michaelowa, in Shanghai, New Delhi, Mumbai, 1997). Recently, respirable PM and Guangzhou, Chongquin, Calcutta, ozone have become increasingly Beijing and Bangkok exceed WHO more serious pollutants in Asian limits (90 μg/m3) by between two

cities and urban transport is becom- and five times (ADB, 2003). PM10 ing more responsible for creating exceeds the US EPA limit (50 μg/m3) them. World Bank's UrbAir study by several times in a number of conducted in Greater Mumbai, cities; New Delhi and Calcutta, for Kathmandu Valley, Jakarta and example, have four times the limit. Metro Manila shows that urban Similarly, a benchmark report of the transport accounts for the majority Air Pollution in Mega-Cities of Asia 12 chapter TWO ASIAN URBAN TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT ISSUES REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES

Project shows that NOx and PM are must not only mitigate air pollution a serious challenge for Asian cities but also reduce congestion. (APMA, 2002). Data from Tokyo shows that SPM increased rapidly Many urban transport issues concern from 40 μg/m3 in the early 1980s to energy use. Because so much of over 70 μg/m3 in the early 1990s. world politics revolves around oil Since then, levels of SPM have de- supplies, rapid motorisation poses creased or stagnated but it is again an energy security concern. The becoming increasingly difficult to consensus is that oil will continue contain them (TMG, 2004). It is im- to be a major transportation fuel portant to note that the health impacts and that the world has to deal with of air pollution are determined by the environmental implications the concentrations of pollutants that of oil-based transport for at least populations are exposed to. All these three to four more decades. There reports indicate that SPM, PM10 and little disagreement that hydrogen-

NOx are particularly problematic and based fuel cell vehicles will evolve that the transport sector is a major in the future, but major questions, contributor to their creation. like how long it will take and how hydrogen will be obtained, remain. In addition to its impact on local The fuel cell system will be more air pollution, growing motorisation efficient than the internal combus- results in a significant toll on conges- tion engine but cost, energy loss tion, too. Incomes in cities are rising and GHG emissions will determine rapidly and improvements in the its real benefits. Some researchers efficiency of public transportation, argue that even if a hydrogen-driven especially mass transportation, have fuel cell automobile became cost been slow. As a result, Asian cities effective today (and the technology such as Bangkok, Jakarta, Beijing, is just being developed), it would Manila, Delhi and Kathmandu are still take over fifty years to clean dominated by personal, low-oc- our air if we accounted for the time cupancy vehicles, whose numbers required for designing, technology exacerbate congestion and pollutant refinement, cost reduction through concentrations. The expansion and economies of scale, developing sup- improvement of roads only serves porting infrastructure, marketing, to encourage increased vehicle and penetrating the existing fleet.8 numbers and use. Policy makers Heywood and Bandivadekar (2003)

8. Personal communications with John Heywood, Professor of Automotive Science, Massachusetts In- stitute of Technology, Cambridge, during an OECD Ministerial Roundtable on Sustainable Mobility, 13 September 2004. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

show that the new technology must transport sector in energy use have penetrate over 35% of new vehicle been phenomenal in other Asian production and over 35% of the total cities too. Energy use by transport in- mileage driven to have an impact. In creased by over two times in Beijing, addition, it will take more time for Shanghai and Delhi between 1990 fuel cells to penetrate developing and 2000. Even in relatively mature Asian countries than they do to cities it climbed—by 25% in Tokyo penetrate the developed economies and by 50% in Seoul, for example. of Asia, North America, and Europe. The latest figure indicates that Since the Rio Earth Summit was oil accounts for more than 95% of held in 1992, the issue of climate total energy use in transportation in change has been gaining attention almost all OECD countries (Fulton, in political, scientific and all other 2001) and that Asian cities are no dif- policy sectors. Russia's recent ferent. Energy use by oil-based urban ratification of the Kyoto Protocol transport has increased dramatically paved the way for the document to in Asian cities owing to rapid mo- enter into force in early 2005. Now torisation. In rapidly growing mega Annex I countries are obliged to cities such as Beijing and Shanghai fulfil their Kyoto commitments, and the share of urban transport in total instruments such as CDMs, joint energy consumption is low—just 7 implementation and carbon trading to 9%—but its rate of growth is over will be operational. The role of cities 11% (IGES, 2004). In Ho Chi Minh and especially of urban transport is City, the share is greater—20%—and very important in reducing carbon in commerce-dominated cites such emissions because transportation a as Tokyo and Seoul, it is well over major GHG-emitting sector. 35%. The share and the growth of the

N

14 Nepal's n chapter THREE

Nepal's national context Photo: Dilip K. Munankarmi

Nepal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's nation Nepal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's national con Nepal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's national co epal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's national contex Nepal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's nation national context Nepal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's national context Nepal's national c chapter THREE NEPAL'S NATIONAL CONTEXT

Nepal is a land-locked the world.12 Agriculture is a major country dominated topographi- contributor to GDP, but in the last cally by mountains.10 Sandwiched decade, the share of non-agricultural between two Asian giants, India and GDP increased to about 50-60%.13 China, its 147,000 sq.km is home to The country is largely rural: just 24 million people.11 Its gross domes- 14% of its population lives in urban tic product (GDP) was 5.8 billion areas.14 The urban population is US$ in 2003, and, with a per capita concentrated in a few cities, notably GDP of 240 US$, the country is one the five in Kathmandu Valley, where of the least developed countries in 30% of the total population live. 10

8

6

4

Percentage 2

0

-2 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03* Year 2003/04** -4 Real GDP (at 1994/95 Price) Agriculture Non-Agriculture

Source: Economic Survey, 2004 Note: GDP figures are at factor costs and curves are smoothened. * Revised estimate; ** Preliminary estimate Figure 3.1 Real GDP growth at constant 1994/95 prices

10. About 77% of the land mass is covered by hills and mountains 11. The 2001 national census figure is 23.214 million (Central Bureau of Statistics). The estimated popu- lation in 2004 was 24.74 million (Economic Survey 2004, Ministry of Finance). 12. Data from the fiscal year 2002/2003 is used. GDP at current prices (factor costs) is 435.531 billion Rs. (statistical Table 1.1). The population is 24.2 million and the exchange rate, 75.1 Rs. per US$ (Table 1e). See Economic Survey 2004. 13. Agriculture accounted for 39% of the GDP in the fiscal year 2002/03 (from Economic Survey 2004). 17 14. The urban population is expected to reach 20% by 2015. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

The mountainous terrain poses a far- and mid-western regions are far significant barrier to the develop- less developed than the rest of the ment of a road- and rail-based country. Although Nepal has used transportation system in the country five-year national plans to direct as building such an infrastructure the economy and the country as a demands considerable technical whole since 1956, the government skill and physical labour and is has found it difficult to balance capital intensive. Not surprisingly, income, economic growth and the per capita total road availability sound infrastructure development is lower than that of Nepal’s South across the regions. In response to Asian neighbours; it a mere 0.64 the macro-economic crisis17 of the meters, only one-third of which is mid-1980s and pressure from the black-topped.15 One major feature World Bank and IMF, the govern- of the country’s roads is the low ment implemented a Structural volume of traffic plying on them. Adjustment Program (SAP) in 1986. Outside the Kathmandu Valley, the A number of reforms in trade, maximum number of vehicles along investment, banking, finance and key routes to the Indian boarder is other areas have been made since 2,500 to 3,000 vehicles per day. The then.18 Nepal has adopted liberal average figure for key links in the investment policies and made Tarai (southern plains) is just 300- efforts to attract foreign investment. 1000 and on main hill roads it is still The investment climate has not, less, at 100-200.16 Ninety percent of however, improved drastically, and passenger transportation on roads is transport infrastructure remains provided by buses, most of which particularly neglected. The majority are run by private operators. of infrastructure projects, including road construction, are supported Administratively and politically, the largely by international donors country is divided into five develop- through either grants or loans. The ment regions and 17 districts. The revenue to expenditure ratio in the

15. As of July 2004, the total road length was 16,042 km, of which 4,658 km was black top; 4,037 gravel; and 7,347 fair weather. 16. “Report and Recommendations of the President to the Board of Directors on a Proposed Loan to the Kingdom of Nepal” for the Road Network Development Project, November 2001, Asian Development Bank Report RRP: NEP 29472. 17. GDP growth stagnated around 3%, exports stalled at 5% of GDP, and imports rose significantly to 17% of GDP in 1986/87. 18. “Economic Policy and Civil War in Nepal” by Kishor Sharma, Paper for the UNU/ WIDER (World 18 Institute for Development Economics and Research). Conference on Making Peace Work, 4-5 June, 2004, Helsinki. chapter THREE NEPAL'S NATIONAL CONTEXT road sector has consistently fallen ment (MOPE) in 1995. It passed the in recent years (see Table 3.1). The Environmental Protection Act (EPA) present leftist rebellion in different and Rules in 1997. National Trans- parts of the country has caused a port Policy 2058 was unveiled in rapid upsurge in rural-urban migra- 2001; this document includes a wide tion, a fact which, in view of the range of transport-related strategies limited infrastructure of urban areas, and is well formulated. How well it will only increase the burden of is implemented, however, will be absorbing them. Although statistics the true test of developing sustain- are not available, experts agree that able mobility. Vehicle emission signs of stress are distinctly visible standards for new vehicles follow in a number of cities and district EURO-I standards (see Annex I), headquarters. but emissions standards for in-use vehicles are not very stringent; this The air quality in Nepal's major cities duality reflects the fact that there are has worsened over the last decade. a significant number of old and inef- The levels of air pollution in Kath- ficient vehicles in the transportation mandu, Biratnagar, and Birgunj are system. categorised as unacceptable in terms of human health considerations by The situation in India has a major WHO guidelines. In a few major impact on Nepal’s transport and cities, the contribution of motor environment-related decisions such vehicles to pollution has increased as emission standards, fuel quality, gradually in recent years. Realising fuel prices and various taxes. The an independent ministry was needed majority of vehicles in Nepal are to look after environmental issues, manufactured in India, and Nepal the government established the buys oil from the state-owned Ministry of Population and Environ- Indian Oil Corporation. The largely

Table 3.1 Expenditure on and revenue from Nepal's road sector (in million rupees)

Item 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 Expenditure 1,469 1,449 1,872 3,330 5,135 4,206 5,328 Revenue 1,351 1,428 1,744 2,059 2,321 2,483 2,656 Revenue/Expenditure 92% 98.6% 93.2% 61.9% 45.2% 75.1% 66.6% Source: "Report and Recommendations of the President to the Board of Directors on a Proposed Loan to the Kingdom of Nepal" for the Road Network Development Project, November 2001, Asian Development Bank Report RRP: NEP 29472. 19 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

unregulated open border between estimated net GHG emissions (CO2 Nepal and India renders the prices equivalencies) of 39 million tonnes of petroleum products essentially in 1994/1995. Per capita emission is the same in both countries. If Nepal only 1.9 million tonnes.19 The trans- adopted any standard higher than port sector is not a very large source: that in India, it would likely fail. per capita, it generates only 22 kg, six times less than in China and The Nepalese parliament passed the 180 times less than in the United Local Self-Governance Act in 1999 to States.20 However, the transport provide a legal basis for decentralised sector contributes about one-third

self-rule by locally elected bodies of the total CO2 emissions from fuel such as municipalities and village combustion in the country.21 These and district development committees statistics are primarily attributable (VDCs and DDCs). This Act grants to Nepal's low vehicle ownership city authorities the power to make rates: Nepal had 59 people per decisions about infrastructure and vehicle and 348 people per car in environmental management, to enact mid-2004.22 Motorcycles dominate by-laws, and to control local taxation. motorised modes; cheap and widely City authorities are gradually assum- used, they account for 62% of the ing a greater role and building their total registered vehicles. In short, capacities, but, functionally speak- in both per capita and absolute ing, key responsibilities that affect numbers, Nepal's total GHG emis- transportation infrastructure and sions and road transport emissions urban environmental management are insignificant compared to those decisions still lie with the national of its neighbours. However, although government. the scale of motorisation is currently small, the rate of growth is rapid and Nepal’s GHG emissions are the numbers of cars and motorcycles relatively small. The country’s first are skyrocketing. Experts suggest national communication to UNFCCC that GHG emissions from transport

19. This is net GHG emissions. CO2 contributes only about 25%. See Nepal’s First Communication to UNFCCC available at http://www.mope.gov.np

20. Nepal First National Communication to UNFCCC. CO2 from transport in 1994/95 was 456 Gg, pp. 16.

For comparison, China has 122 kg per capita, six times more than Nepal (CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion 1997-1998, International Energy Agency. 2000, Paris, pp. II.82-II.84).

21. The share of CO2 emissions from the transport sector was 31% of the total fuel combustion in 1994/1995. 22. This figure represents the stock of registered vehicles. “Cars” means light-duty vehicles, including 20 cars, jeeps, and vans. As of March 2004, the total registered vehicles reached 418,910: there were 70,897 cars, vans and jeeps and 262,067 motorcycles. Source: Economic Survey 2004. chapter THREE NEPAL'S NATIONAL CONTEXT could increase four-fold by 2030 if bilateral mechanisms will also open the present trend continues.23 up possibilities. Nepal’s transport sector may, for example, be able Because Nepal’s transport sector to accumulate certified emission is currently not efficient in terms reduction credits to supplement the of either its energy use or mix of growing financial burden of develop- modes, there are many prospects ing urban transportation infrastruc- for reducing CO2 emissions. The tures. The country recently entered future prospects (costs aside) for into an agreement for a carbon off- battery-operated electric vehicles setting program in the bio-gas sector (EVs) and electric transportation with the prototype carbon fund of such as trolley buses and trains the World Bank; this contract alone, are good as electricity is provided experts estimate, will generate by environmentally clean run-of- five million US dollars in revenue river hydropower plants. Russia’s inflow. Some key indicators of the recent ratification of the Kyoto state of Nepal's transport sector Protocol has given new life to flex- and environment are compared to ible mechanisms like CDMs and those of neighbouring countries in financial mechanisms like a global Table 3.2. environmental facility and other

23. National Communication of Nepal to UNFCCC, July 2004, pp. 46. 21 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Table 3.2 Selected indicators of transport and environment for South Asian countries, 1997

Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka General Surface area (sq. km) 144,000 3,287,260 147,180 796,100 65,610 Total population 124,381,408 962,377,664 21,444,880 128,457,312 18,552,000 Population density (people per sq. km) 956 324 150 167 287 GDP per capita, PPP (current US$) 1,388 2,034 1,221 1,802 3,041

CO2 emissions (mttonnesper capita) 0.19 1.07 0.13 0.73 0.41

CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 0.14 0.52 0.11 0.41 0.14 Urban population (% of total) 23 27 11 35 23 Transportation Per capita road availability (m) 1.6 2.6 0.62a 1.8 0.6 Roads, paved (% of total roads) 9.5 56.5 31a 44 95 Vehicles (per km of road) 0.6 3.0 16b 4.3 53.1 Two-wheelers (per 1,000 people) 1.2 26.7 5.2b 13.3 38.3 Vehicles (per 1,000 people) 1.0 7.7 9.9b 8.0 31.9 Passenger cars (per 1,000 people) 0.4 4.8 2.2 (all cars)b 4.7 14.1 Source: World Development Indicators 2004, The World Bank. Data older than the most current data are used to make sure that all indicators are available for all countries. a. Calculated by the author from the 1997 population of 21,331,362 (Nepal Population Report 2002, MoPE) and the road length for 1997/98 of 13,223 km (Economic Survey 2003/4). b. The total number of vehicles in 1997/98 was 211,981. Vehicle Statistics, DoTM.

Kath

Kathma Kath 22 Kathman Kathma chapter FOUR Kathmandu: A city experiencing rapid change Photo: Dilip Munankarmmi

Kathmandu: 25 A Population, city experiencing urbanisation rapid andchange land use Kathmandu: A city exper hmandu: A29 city experiencing Air pollution rapid change Kathmandu: A city experiencing Kathmandu: 30 A Transportation city experiencing picture rapid change Kathmandu: A city experi andu: A city 38 experiencing Emissions rapidfrom changemotor vehicles Kathmandu: A city experiencing ra mandu: A 39 city experiencing Policies and institutionalrapid change arrangements Kathmandu: for managing A city experiencin g ndu: A city experiencingemissions rapid from change motor vehicles Kathmandu: A city experiencing rap ndu: A city experiencing rapid change Kathmandu: A city experiencing ra chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE

4.1 Population, urbanisation and land use

Surrounded by high mountains, of the three districts. The Valley Kathmandu Valley is home to three exercises unparalleled political and districts, Kathmandu, Lalitpur economic power and is undergoing and Bhaktapur,24 and the nation's rapid societal transformation and capital, Kathmandu Metropolitan modernisation. City, in Kathmandu District. Each district includes a core city area as Kathmandu is home to one-and-a- well as rural territory which extends half million people in its 666 sq. km beyond the Valley into the hills and area.25 Three-quarters of the popula- mountains. The Valley’s five cities tion lives in urbanised areas. Its are so small and so interlinked that average population density is 1,372 it makes no sense to separate them in people per sq. km, but the density analysis. The Valley houses a major- of core areas reaches 4,250.26 To ity of Nepal's urban developments, compare, its density is half that of all five of its municipalities, the Shanghai and less than a quarter of majority of its total population and that of Delhi. The densest areas of 30% of its urban population, and Shanghai and Delhi are 15 and five virtually all of the urban road infra- times more dense than the densest structure and transportation system areas of Kathmandu.27

24. Nepal is divided into 75 districts. 25. This figure (1.58 million) includes only the population of the three districts that resides within the Kathmandu Valley. The number was arrived at by excluding the populations of the 17 VDCs that belong to the three districts but are not within the physical boundaries of the Valley. The 2001 Census figure for the population of the three Valley districts is 1.64 million. The area of the three districts is 899 sq. km. The urban population is one million. However, a number of VDCs in the Valley are already urbanised yet not counted as part of the urban population because they fall beyond municipality boundaries. Including urbanised VDCs, the urban population is 1.21 million or 76% of the total. (Source: IUCN, 1999 pp. 115 and pp. 8, and Census 2001). The latest report issued by the Kathmandu Valley Town Development Committee gives the Valley area as 666 sq. km (See Development Plan 2020 of Kathmandu Valley) though previous studies used the figure of 640 sq. km. 26. The core area is Kathmandu Metropolitan City’s wards nos. 12, 17-28 and 30, which together cover 2.75 sq km and house a population of 116,885. For details, see Joshi (2004). 27. A tentative estimated based on a report by the Centre on Global Climate Change, Washington DC, 25 2001 and 2002. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

27 km ringroad

1984 1991 2000* 2015

Source: Courtesy of Pushpa Sundar Joshi and CDS (2001) Figure 4.1 Expansion of urban settlements in Kathmandu Valley over time

26 chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE

Ancient Kathmandu was a small to other regions. Since then, and concentrated city with three major especially in the last two decades, urban clusters and a few small Kathmandu suddenly entered a towns near transportation corridors new phase—largely haphazard and that linked the city to outlying uncontrolled urban settlement. Till regions. Its population in 1950 1984 its urban settlements were was four times less than its present largely confined to within the 27-km population is and barely 40% of the Ring Road and to two major clus- total lived in urban areas.28 When ters, Bhaktapur and Kirtipur. Since the country opened itself to the then, however, it has expanded in outside world in the 1950s, many almost all directions; the most rapid development efforts were initiated, expansions are along transportation some of which involved developing corridors (see Figure 4.2). motorable roads linking the city

Note: The population show includes only those people who reside in the Valley. It excludes the population of those VDCs of the three districts that lie outside of the Valley. Source: IUCN (1999) and CBS (2001). In 2001, the urban share was 76% of the populations of urbanising villages, whose population growth is over 4%. Source: Joshi (2004). Figure 4.2 Population growth in the Kathmandu Valley

28. See IUCN (1999) pp.115. The 1952/54 population was 410,995 with 196,777 in urban areas 27 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Migration from other parts of the (KVUDPP) carried out with the country has played a major role in ADB’s support in 1991 and "Regu- contributing to the high population lating Growth: Kathmandu Valley" growth rate of Kathmandu in recent carried out by IUCN and HMGN in decades. It registered a moderate 1995, were surpassed in 2001. average annual population growth rate in 1961/71 (about 2%). Since There have been phenomenal then it has doubled, recording an changes in the land-use patterns of over 4% annual average growth rate the Valley in the last few decades. over the decade from 1991 to 2001. The share of agriculture land was Most of the growth taking place is 64% in 1984; in 2000, it was just outside the historical core areas. 41% (KVTDC, 2002)30 as conversion In the large municipalities of Kath- into built urban infrastructures mandu and Lalitpur, the population continued. In contrast, the amount growth rate is decreasing due to the of forested land has not changed sig- saturation of physical space. In a nificantly. Past development plans few core areas negative growth has repeatedly advocated a containment been observed.29 policy which would control sprawl, increase urban density inside the Past studies predict that the popula- present Ring Road, preserve the tion of Kathmandu will continue to surrounding agricultural land, and increase drastically from the 1.58 maintain the ecological balance of million who presently live there. the city. Despite this goal, the city A recent estimate in Development has sprawled, extending on all sides, Plan 2020 of Kathmandu Valley but mostly along its transportation predicts that the population will corridors. The result is increased double, reaching 3.3 million, by pressure on urban planning, infra- 2031. In fact, some urban popula- structures (such as roads) and en- tion projections for 2015, like those vironmental services (like sewerage of the Kathmandu Valley Urban and waste management). Development Plans and Programs

29. Twelve of the 35 wards in Kathmandu Metropolitan City have population growth rates of less than 3%. 28 30. This plan was approved by the national government in August 2002. Owing to the political stalemate in the country, no proper institutional arrangement for their implementation had been devised as of 2004. chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE

4.2 Air pollution

Section 1.3 outlined the past air pol- pollution monitoring stations. The lution problems of the Valley. The sites include one suburban site, one levels of air pollutants, especially mixed residential and commercial

PM10, are significantly above the site, two heavily congested road- healthy limits set by the WHO. Dust side sites and two localised urban re-suspension due to motor vehicles centres (Bhaktapur and Kirtipur). and construction, smoky vehicles, The results show that levels of PM10 and the release of PM by small- are alarmingly high along roadsides: scale industries such as brick kilns they exceed the NAAQS of 120 are major sources of air pollution. μg/m3 (24-hour average) 75% of the Data collected by road-sides and on time, especially in winter months, holidays demonstrates that motor when dispersion is low. In the peak vehicles are the primary source. months between December and

March, PM10 concentrations reach Since October 2002 air pollution as high as two times the NAAQS. in six sites in the Valley has been Figure 4.3 shows the trend of PM10 monitored using automatic air concentrations in the monitored

300 Bhaktapur Kirtipur 250 Patan Putalisadak Thamel Machhegau 200

150 NAAQS

100 Microgram per cubic meter

50

0 3 ., 0 ., 04 Jul., 03 Nov., 02Dec., 02Jan., 03Feb., 03Mar., 03Apr., 03May, 03Jun., 03 Aug., 03Sep., 03Oct., 03Nov Dec., 03Jan., 04Feb Mar., 04Apr., 04 Month Source: Received through personal communication with MOPE in July 2004. (Cour- tesy of Bhai Raja Manandhar). The two sites whose values are lower than the NAAQS are the suburbs.

Figure 4.3 PM10 concentrations in the Valley 29 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

sites. The data also shows that the operate. Recently, however, the gov-

weekly average SO2 concentrations ernment has prohibited such kilns; in Bhaktapur are sometimes above it now promotes vertical shaft brick the NAAQS, especially during the kiln technology, which reduces pol- winter, when old, fixed brick kilns lutants significantly.

4.3 Transportation picture

Road transportation is the only 4.3.1 Road infrastructure means of travel in the Valley at present and into the foreseeable The 27-km Ring Road circumscribes future.31 The transportation system the main city area and connects all in the Valley is characterised by major radial roads, which are linked inadequate road length, narrow and to rural settlements or provide congested roads, unmanaged traffic, transportation corridors to high- an inadequate traffic management ways or neighbouring cities. Nepal infrastructure, a combination of has five categories of roads: national old and new vehicles, and a multi- highways, major and minor feeder modal public transportation system roads, district roads and urban road. (from three-wheelers to buses) in Kathmandu Metropolitan City clas- which the role of high-occupancy sifies its roads based on the number public transportation is growing in- of lanes and width. The largest, a creasingly marginalised. In the last path, has at least four 3.5 meter-wide two decades, limited improvements paved lanes, while the smallest, a have been made in traffic manage- non-motorable galli, is less than three ment, emission control, and public metres wide. In 2001, the Valley had transportation promotion, but they 1,331 km of roads.32 The density are offset by the declining role of was 1,232 people per km of road33 or high-occupancy public transport, about two km of road per sq. km of rapidly rising transportation activ- land.34 KVTDC (2002) reported that ity, and the growth in the number of this amounted to between five and private cars and motorcycles. six percent of the net developable

31. There are no plans to develop a rail-based transport system, and there has been no discussion of this option either. 32. Road Statistics 2001, Department of Roads. The actual road length in the Valley is slightly less. This data is the sum of the road lengths of the three districts. 33. In 2001 the population of the three districts was 1.64 million. 30 34. Assuming that almost all roads are located inside the 666 sq. km Valley floor. The area of the three districts is 899 sq. km. chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE land, a low but not atypical figure in number) meet just 6% of travel for the capitals of many developing demand. The share of non-motorised countries. Only about 54% of the modes in peak-hour travel demand total length of roads is paved and is significant (22.4%). almost 24% is neither paved nor gravelled. 4.3.3 Vehicle ownership trends: structure and type 4.3.2 Travel characteristics About 57% of the total vehicles regis- The number of studies which char- tered in the country are registered in acterise the travel patterns in the the Kathmandu Valley.35 In the case Valley is limited. While information of passenger cars and motorcycles, on the detailed travel behaviours the figures are 68% and 64% respec- of travellers and factors that affect tively. The fact that these figures their choice of modes is unavail- are so high suggests that the Valley able, the modal split of peak hour plays a significant role in shaping travel reveals that the majority of the transportation policy of the demand is met by public transporta- whole country. In the 15 years from tion (see Table 4.1). Public transport 1989 to 2004, the number of regis- vehicles (which comprise 19% of the tered vehicles increased 6.8 times to total) meet 57% of travel demand reach 249,282 in July 2004. Vehicles while motorcycles (which are great include private cars, jeeps, pick-ups,

Table 4.1 Peak-hour modal split in Kathmandu Valley

Mode Average peak-hour modal split % of daily No. of No. of % of % of passenger vehicles passengers vehicles passengers travel Public transportation 5289 93872 19.3 63.5 56.5 Motorcycle 11633 15123 42.5 10.2 5.8 Passenger car and taxi 4457 7593 16.3 5.1 5.3 Bicycle 5996 5996 21.9 4.1 4.3 Pedestrian 25349 17.1 18.1 Total 27375 147933 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Passenger Travel & Modal Split Estimation of Kathmandu Valley, Broersma, K and N Pradhan, Mission Report 4, Kathmandu Valley Mapping Program, Kathmandu Metro- politan City/European Commission, Kathmandu, 2001. (Kind courtesy of Mr. P.S. Joshi)

35. Source: Vehicle statistics available from the Department of Transport Management. All vehicles reg- istered in the Bagmati Zone are assumed to be used in Kathmandu. This is a reasonable assumption 31 because other districts in this zone are hilly areas and largely un-motorable. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

vans and microbuses, buses, mini- show that the proportions of various buses, trucks, three-wheelers and modes of transport used has changed motorcycles. The annual average significantly in the last 15 years and growth rate of the total registered that motorcycles now dominate. vehicles in the Valley in 1990-2004 was over 13% (See Figure 4.4). The Another important issue is the growth rate of motorcycles is par- number of old vehicles, though this ticularly high, over 17%, and rising number is difficult to state with very rapidly, owing to their low cost confidence. The estimate given here and high mobility on congested is based on various assumptions and narrow roads. The growth rate made regarding the data of previous of cars, vans and jeeps (light-duty studies and this study. The DOTM vehicles) is the next highest. Regis- reported in 2004 that the new gov- tered taxis number about 7,500 (Ale, ernment policy (which has not yet 2004). Since 2001, there has been a been implemented due to pressures dramatic rise in new registrations from transport entrepreneurs) of of motorcycles. The reason is not banning vehicles older than 20 years known but could be due in part to would affect about 10,857 vehicles various financial options offered (including 5224 small private vehi- by local financial institutions and cles, 2600 large public vehicles, and motorcycle distributors. Statistics 1200 government cars) in the Valley.

17% 16% 17% 15.4% 13.8% 13.2%

10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% Growth rate Car/Jeep/van Two-wheeler Bus/Minibus Total registered vehicles Car/Jeep/van Two-wheeler Bus/Minibus Total registered vehicles Car/Jeep/van Two-wheeler Bus/Minibus Total registered vehicles

1995/1990 2000/1995 2004/2000 Year Figure 4.4 Average annual growth rates of vehicles in the Kathmandu Valley 32 chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE

300,000 Total Two-wheeler Car/Jeep/Van 249,282 250,000 224,098

200,000 173,646 156,410 150,000

Number 109,489

100,000 64,142

45,361 50,000 39,333 28,915 51,541 20,440 14,617 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Figure 4.5 Increase in the number of registered vehicles in the Kathmandu Valley

Tractor 2.5% Bus and Minibus Bus and Minibus 1.9% 3.5% Other Tractor Other 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% Car/Jeep/Van Truck/Tanker Car/Jeep/Van 32.6% 3.0% 20.7% Two-wheeler Two-wheeler 69.7% Microbus 51.9% 0.4% Pick-up 0.4%

Three-wheeler 2.0%

Microbus 0.0%

Pick-up Three-wheeler 0.0% 4.9% 1992 2004 Registered vehicle composition Registered vehicle composition

Figure 4.6 Composition of the registered vehicle population in the Kathmandu Valley 33 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

However, this is not necessarily the Most of the newly added private cars actual number of operational vehi- are Indian models between 800 and cles that will be displaced (there is a 1,300 cc. All motorcycles registered history of bargaining with the govern- after 2002 are four-stroke motorcy- ment to get tax breaks for replacing cles, which emit significantly fewer old with new vehicles; this policy air pollutants than do two-stroke encourages owners to claim tax motorcycles. breaks for non-operational vehicles to cover the cost of replacing them). Ale (2004) reported that about 43% of 4.3.4 State of public transport the nation’s total of registered buses and minibuses (2,339) operate in the Public transportation is provided Valley. As shown in Figure 4.7, data by a mixture of low- and high-oc- on registrations provides an image cupancy vehicles. About 2,339 of the age of vehicles. The share of buses and minibuses, one thousand older vehicles could be significantly LPG and electric battery-operated smaller than is shown but caution three-wheelers, one thousand LPG, should be taken as the share of new gasoline and diesel microbuses, and vehicles is inflated by the rise in the six to seven thousand taxis make number of motorcycles. up the public transport system in the Valley. Public transport serves 100% about 57% of the total passengers Over 15 90% during peak hours. Almost all 80% 10-15 years public transportation is provided by 70% the private sector. The state-owned 60% 5-10 years Sajha Yatayat and electric trolley 50% buses are almost on the brink of col-

40% lapse due to management problems.

30% Only three electric trolley buses and 1-5 years 20% very few Sajha Yatayat buses were

10% in operation in 2004 though plans to revive trolley buses are being made 0% Total with the help of the private sector. A Figure 4.7 Age of registered study demonstrates that it is feasible vehicles in 2004 to operate trolley buses on the Ring (Caution: This is not the number of Road (CEMAT, 1999). operational vehicles) 34 chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE

In 2004, 5,085 three-wheelers were To counter the dominance of low- registered. By July all gasoline models occupancy public transportation had been banned. After 1992 no vehicles, rapidly rising numbers of registration of diesel three-wheelers private cars and motorcycles, heavy was allowed and this type of vehicles traffic congestion, and pollution was completely phased out in 1995. problems, it is essential to reform Since then, the use of battery-oper- public transportation through the ated electric three-wheelers has risen promotion of high-occupancy vehi- due to the efforts of the government, cles. A policy dialogue carried out NGOs and donor communities. In as part of this study reached this 2000 there were about 600 EVs and a conclusion, but awareness amongst Rs. 500 million industry comprised of decision-makers about the urgent vehicle manufacturers, battery-charg- need to restrain private transporta- ing stations and vehicle operators had tion and promote high-occupancy been established (IGES, 2004). Since public transportation is low. then the industry has stalled due to competition in the market, mostly from microbuses with long routes. 4.3.5 State of vehicular traffic At present, there are about one thou- and management sand, half battery-operated and half LGP-powered vehicles. In core city Since a JICA study was conducted areas, microbuses and minibuses in 1991/92 (see JICA, 1993), no dominate public transportation; they other systematic study of vehicular are convenient for passengers but traffic in the Valley has been carried collectively take up more road space out. However, ground realities have than buses do. The typical seating changed significantly since 1991 as capacities of public transportation the most dramatic changes in urban vehicles are shown in the Table 4.2. transportation have taken place

Table 4.2 Typical seating capacities of public transportation in Kathmandu Valley

Vehicle type Seating capacity Large buses 40+ Minibuses 25-30 Microbuses 14-16 Three-wheelers 12-14 Electric three-wheelers 11 35 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

within the last decade. There are no hinder flow and the lack of overhead reliable statistics, for example, on passes is a serious infrastructural current average traffic speed. Some shortcoming. Recent data shows that old studies (Devkota, 1992; JICA, 590 traffic police personnel are re- 1993) conducted in the early 1990s sponsible for managing traffic in the report an average speed of 20-30 km Valley; of them, just 70% are trained. per hour but speeds have visibly The average number of hours of duty declined in recent years and traffic is as high as 12 in 24.36 jams are frequent in key central areas. New estimates suggest that average speeds are less than 20 km 4.3.6 Trend in traffic accidents per hour (Ale, 2004). Some traffic lights have been introduced in recent The number of traffic accidents years (at present there are lights at 11 reported to the traffic police is, junctions, 10 of which the Japanese naturally, less than the actual Government supported, and in over number. Since few car owners and 60 junctions traffic police manu- drivers have vehicle accident insur- ally control traffic), yet unmanaged ance, usually only unsettled cases pedestrian movement and crossings and big accidents are reported. and non-compliance with traffic rules Nonetheless, the official statistics

4000

3500 Motorcycle 1316 3000 763 1053 2500

2000 Light 708 1279 1690 1720 1500 Number of accidents 1000 1004 1306 Heavy 500 770 827 408 0 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 Year Figure 4.8 Trends in the number of traffic accidents in the Valley37

36. Personal communication with Valley Traffic Police Office. 37. Based on presentation by the Deputy Superintendent of Police, Mr. Govinda Niraula, entitled “State of Traffic Management in the Kathmandu Valley” at the Roundtable Workshop on Strategies to Miti- gate Air Pollution from Urban Transportation in Kathmandu Valley, 29-30 July, 2004, Park Village 36 Resort, Kathmandu. Organised by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan, in collaboration with MOPE. chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE for 2004 do show that the number of and maintenance programmes, accidents is on the rise. About 35% phasing out old vehicles, increasing of accidents occur at night. Trucks traffic speed, and promoting public and buses, mainly those travelling transportation, all aid in CO2 mitiga- on highways, account for 45% of ac- tion. However, not all air pollution cidents, while small vehicles on city measures can reduce CO2 emissions; roads account for 42%. Motorcycles tail-pipe emission control strategies have the highest accident rate. are especially ineffective.

The promotion of EVs can reduce CO2 4.3.7 Carbon-friendly transport emissions. The growth of the battery- operated three-wheelers so popular As discussed earlier, a Valley priority in the late 1990s has stalled since is to combat air pollutants and dust, 2000, but several studies demonstrate specifically PM10. Any resultant miti- that EVs, whether three-wheelers gation of CO2 emissions is a benefit in or trolley buses, are feasible. Some a real sense. The choice to maximise even believe that driving conditions

CO2 benefits when implementing air in the Valley are suitable for electric pollution mitigation measures needs cars such as the India-manufactured to be considered. Two questions REVA.38 Since electricity is generated arise: “What does it take to choose by run-of-river hydropower plants, carbon-friendly air pollution mitiga- the use of EVs can reduce air pollu- tion measures?” and “Is it possible to tion as well as reduce oil imports and implement such measures?”. mitigate CO2 emissions. EV use can also help to improve the load factor Improving energy efficiency is one of power generation and to reduce the measure that can reduce air pol- average cost of electricity by making lution and CO2 emissions. For a possible the use of otherwise wasted country like Nepal, which is fully off-peak-hour energy.39 An EV-based dependent on foreign oil, utilising approach, if integrated well with poli- indigenous energy sources and cies to restrain private cars, promote saving foreign exchange are equally high-occupancy public transportation important. Typical energy-centred and improve energy efficiency, can air pollution mitigation measures, make a big improvement. The fact such as improving fuel efficiency, that Kathmandu already has experi- implementing better inspection ence with EVs is promising.

38. See Pradhan (2004), Bhatta and Joshi (2004), Dhakal (1996), Dhakal (2003a), CEMAT (1999). 37 39. Dhakal (1996) URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

4.4 Emissions from motor vehicles

Table 4.3 Emission standards for in-use vehicles (2000)

Fuel Vehicle type Model year CO, % HC, ppm HSU40, % Test Up to 1980 4.5 Four-wheeler 1000 - Idle After 1981 3.0 Up to 1991 4.5 Petrol Three-wheelers 7800 - Idle After 1992 3.0 Two-wheelers All 4.5 7800 - Idle LPG/CNG All categories - 3.0 1000 - Idle Up to 1994 75 (k41 = 3.22 m-1) Free Diesel Four-wheelers -- After 1995 65 (k = 2.44 m-1) acceleration Source: www.mope.gov.np/environment/green.php. Accessed on July 20, 2004. The country introduced emission non-compliance fee is nominal and standards for new vehicles equiva- there is no proper system for getting lent to EURO-I (Nepal Vehicle Mass non-complying vehicles repaired. Emission Standard, 2056) effective The improper maintenance of ve- from January 2000. In-use vehicles, hicles, overloading, poor road and however, continue to pose a serious transport infrastructures, and fraud challenge because inspection and and corruption are often cited as maintenance programmes in the major obstacles to emission manage- Valley are weak. At present only ment. Studies note that the preva- vehicles with green stickers can ply lence of two-stroke engines such as inside the Ring Road and spot-check- motorcycles and three-wheelers and ing of emissions is frequently done low scrapping rates are other major by traffic police in coordination with problems (SOMEN, 2001). Loop- the DOTM, which together run three holes in the inspection system are emission-testing stations. All com- a third difficulty. Ale and Nagarkoti mercial vehicles are tested twice a (2003) reported that tampering with year and all other vehicles are tested carburettors and injection pumps is once a year, irrespective of their age. common and that vehicle owners do Road-side tests demonstrate that not get proper repairs done. Instead, failure rates, even among cars with they have temporary adjustments green stickers, are high (more than made just to pass emission tests. 20% of all tested vehicles and up Bribing officials is another impedi- to 70% of diesel vehicles fail). The ment to emissions control.

40. HSU (Hatridge Smoke Unit) is the percentage opacity measurement for a column of smoke 430 mm high. 38 41. “K” is the coefficient of light absorption, a measure of the “blackness” of smoke. It is independent of the measurement length. chapter FOUR KATHMANDU: A CITY EXPERIENCING RAPID CHANGE

Fuel choice and quality influence soon improve fuel quality to meet tail-pipe emissions. Because Nepal Bharat Stage II emission norms. In buys its petroleum products from 2002, India unveiled its Auto Fuel India, its fuel quality is influenced Policy, which proposes various fuel by fuel quality in India. Ale (2004) qualities and a road map for meeting reported that the gasoline now the emission reduction objectives of used is lead-free and 0.2% sulfur EURO-III and EURO-IV equivalents while diesel is 0.25% sulfur. India in the future. India’s efforts will adheres to BIS 2000 Specification have a significant impact in Nepal. for Gasoline and Diesel42 but will

4.5 Policies and institutional arrangements for managing emissions from motor vehicles

A number of initiatives have been to vehicles which met emission taken in the past to combat rising standards. air pollution in Kathmandu Valley, • MOPE was established in 1995. especially that from automobiles. • EPA 2056 and Rules were enacted Some are given below. in 1997. • The government first responded • In 1998, the government for- to the growing problem of air mulated NVMES in 2056; these pollution in Kathmandu Valley standards, equivalent to EURO-I by stopping the new registration emission norms, went into effect of three-wheelers in November from January 2000. All new ve- 1991. hicles imported since then have • The government set emission had to comply. standards for in-use vehicles in • In 1997 the government provided 1994 (65 HSU for diesel vehicles subsidies to battery-operated and 3% CO by volume for gasoline electric three-wheelers in the vehicles43) as part of the UNDP- form of tax breaks. assisted Kathmandu Valley Ve- • In 1999, the operation of diesel hicular Emission Control Project three-wheelers was banned in (1992). Green stickers were given Kathmandu Valley, Pokhara

42. See “Report of the Expert Committee on Auto Fuel Policy,” Government of India, August 2002. Downloaded from the web-site of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas at http://petroleum.nic. in/afp_con.htm on July 20, 2005. 43. This was later loosened. For motorcycles, 4.5% CO was set in early 1998. It was further revised in 39 2000 to add LPG and other vehicles (see Table 4.3 for details). URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

and Lumbini. About 600 diesel- vehicle age and, although it did operated three-wheelers stopped so weakly, it did try to discourage operating in the Valley. Owners the use of older vehicles through were given tax incentives to buy fiscal instruments. other vehicles. • The National Transport Policy • In November 2000, the govern- 2001 was endorsed in the Ninth ment announced a ban on all Five-Year National Plan (1997- public vehicles older than 20 2002). This policy is directed years and all vehicles in Kath- primarily towards infrastructure mandu Valley having two-stroke development but there are key engines. The policy was to be ef- provisions related to cleaner fective from 16 November, 2001, transportation systems, too. The but the government was unable outcome of this policy document to implement the decision. is not yet clear. • The registration of new two- • In 2003, the NAAQS for various stroke motorcycles was curbed air pollutants was introduced. in late 2000. • From July 2004, two-stroke • The emission standards of in-use three-wheelers were banned in vehicles were further improved the Valley. The provision to ban after 1998 to include HC- and 20-year-old vehicles has yet not gas-operated vehicles such as been implemented, however. LPG and compressed natural gas • Apart from its transportation- (CNG) in 2000. Earlier, LPG ve- related emission, recently the hicles had not been subjected to government banned polluting emission standards and enjoyed bull’s trench kilns from Kath- clean vehicle benefits. mandu Valley, one-and-a-half • In July 2001, while releasing the years after first announcing it national budget, the government would. announced a 10% additional • The government also decided vehicle tax per year on vehicles to move the now defunct Himal Anal older than 15 years. This is the Cement Factory outside the first time a tax was linked to Valley. Analytic Anal 40 Analytica Analytic chapter FIVE

Analytical framework Photo: Manish Koirala Analytical framework Analytical framework Analytical framewo lytical framework 43 ASIF framework Analytical framework Analytical framework Analytical 45 framework Methodology and Analytical data framework Analytical framewor cal framework Analytical framework Analytical framework ytical framework Analytical framework Analytical framework al framework Analytical framework Analytical framework cal framework Analytical framework Analytical framework chapter FIVE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

5.1 ASIF framework

The analyses carried out in this study Total emissions = Sum of emissions by all use the ASIF framework outlined in transport modes. “Flexing the Link between Trans- port and GHG Emissions” (Schip- The broad decomposition follows: per et al., 2000). The framework is GHG emissions = a function of (travel ac- based on a simple decomposition of tivities), (structure of travel mode), (intensity emissions into pre-defined factors, of energy use), (fuel quality and choice) where emissions are the function of travel (activity), transport mode E = F (A, S, I, F) (structure), energy (intensity) and fuel. This approach has been used In the ASIF framework, A and S widely in the past by end-use deal mostly with behavioural and modellers to consider energy, and lifestyle aspects while I and F deal air pollution and GHG emissions. A with technology aspects. Interven- simple illustration of a decomposi- tions in AS are possible in the long- tion for emissions from cars can be term and need consistent action shown as over time. Assessments made by researchers show that the cities Emissions from cars = (emissions per unit of in Asia have had limited success energy use) x (energy use per passenger-km in intervening in AS though there of travel) x (pass-km of travel per vehicle-km travelled) x (vehicle-km of travel per vehicle) are limited good experiences' such x (number of vehicles) as those in Singapore. In contrast, intervention in IF is short-term and The above equation provides an widely adopted for air pollution easy but powerful framework and control in Asian cities. A reason- includes a variety of factors that are able balance of interventions in AS influenced by strategies and policies. and IF, which is usually necessary, When we aggregate this framework is rarely practised (Dhakal and for all travel modes, it becomes, Schipper, 2005).

43 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Table 5.1 Factors and challenges in the ASIF framework

Components Major factors or determinants Related options AS • Income • Reorganising urban activities towards reducing • Rate of urbanisation needs to travel by motorised modes • Urban form • Improving the efficiency of public and mass • Urban functions transportation • Rate of motorisation • Limiting personalised transport such as cars and • Non-motorised modes motorcycles and their rate of use • Modal mix, para-transit • Reducing congestion by increasing the efficiency • Utilisation rate of personalised modes of transport infrastructure • Other • Other IF • Energy efficiency of modes and vehicles • Controlling tail-pipe emissions through emission • Size, engine type and age of vehicles control technology • Occupancy rates (capacity mix and • Improving energy efficiency of existing vehicles utilisation) and of other travel modes • Congestion • Choosing alternative fuels such as electricity, • Fuel quality: lead, sulfur content, CNG, bio-fuels and making them cost effective reformulation, octane enhancements • Improving I&M systems for in-use vehicles • Fuel choice: CNG vs. diesel, electricity, • Banning decades-old vehicles and promoting fuel gasoline, bio-fuels efficient vehicles • Emission control technologies • Other • Other

Figure 5.1 shows the factors likely considers the emission of CO2 as well to be associated with each of the as the following other air pollutants

components of ASIF in the case of are considered: CO, HC, NOx, SOx,

the Kathmandu Valley. This study, TSP and PM10.

Travel Modal Energy Fuel X X X demand structure intensity quality

Geographical conditions Passenger Freight Vehicle speed Fuel quality Urbanisation trends Vehicle occupancy Fuel choice Transportation infrastructure Public Private Heavy-duty Vehicle age distribution Sulfur content Transportation investment Light-duty Vehicle engine size Ash content Economic growth Fuel type Octane number Socio-cultural factors Heat value Rail Road Motorised Non-Motorised Adulteration

Subway Bus Private cars Surface rail Taxis Two-wheelers Emission factors Light rail transport Three-wheelers Other Figure 5.1 Structure of the study components 44 chapter FIVE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

5.2 Methodology and data

The above-mentioned analyti- Vehicles on the street, Vi(t), are cal framework was implemented estimated from vehicle registration through a number of spreadsheet data obtained from the DOTM and models and long-range energy alter- from operation factors, or the share native planning (LEAP) software (see of operational vehicles in the total details in Section 5.2.2). This study stock of registered vehicles (see Ap- considers only passenger transport. pendix). Emission factors, EFij(t), are Historical analyses of energy, travel estimated from published literature; demand and emissions were carried and average fuel economies of ve- out using Excel spreadsheets, while hicles, Fi(t), are obtained from past analyses related to the future were surveys carried out by the author carried out using LEAP software. (Dhakal, 1996) and other published literature (Shrestha and Malla, 1996; Bose and Srinivasachary, 1997; 5.2.1 Past trends Pradhan, 2004). Because of data constraints, VKTi(t) and EFij(t) are This study estimates the past trends assumed to be the same for all past in energy consumption and pol- years but Fi(t) is changed over time. lutant emissions from passenger These data render the model rela- transportation based on numbers tively static in nature for historical of vehicles and other determining analyses. Establishing precise emis- factors such as emission factors, sion factors is a major problem as no annual average vehicle travel and emission tests have yet been carried fuel economy. This methodology out on the urban driving cycle of was used extensively in past studies Kathmandu. As a result, this and all of the transportation sector. past studies are constrained by their

E (t) = ∑V(t) x VKT(t) x EF (t) x F(t) (1) j i i i ij i

Travel demand (t) = ∑Vi(t) x VKTi(t) x vehicle occupancy rate (t) (2) i

Ej(t) = ∑ pass kmi(t) x (1/vehicle. occupancy rate(t) x EFij(t) x Fi(t) (3) i Where, Ej(t) is the total emission of emission type j in year t by passenger transportation in tonnes, Vi(t) is the number of vehicles on the street, VKTi(t) is the average annual vehicle-km travelled by a vehicle of type i in year t, EFij(t) is the emission factor of pollutant type j of vehicle type i in year (t) in g/l, and Fi(t) is the fuel economy of vehicle type i in year (t) in l/km.

45 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

reliance on emission factors given data and with the results of other in the existing literature, especially studies. Past trends in passenger studies on Indian cities; fortunately, travel demand and the modal split similarities in vehicle type, condi- in passenger-km is estimated by tions, and fuel economy make it equation 2 in a way similar to how possible to extrapolate. Tables 5.2 equation 1 was used, including the and 5.3 below show the major data number of vehicles, average annual used in this study. Since data on the travel and average occupancy rate critical parameters of the model are (number of passengers per vehicle). borrowed from other literature, the Energy consumption by fuel type is results of the model are validated by estimated by removing the emission comparing its energy consumption factors in equation 1. estimates with past energy sales

Table 5.2 Critical parameters of the estimation of energy and emissions in 2000

Fuel efficiency, Registered Operation Load VKT3 km/l (km/Kw-h vehicles1 factor2 factor4 for electric)5 LDV Total 53,442 Private car/jeep 39,800 0.80 • Gasoline vehicle 35,820 0.80 16349 2.6 11.34 • Diesel vehicle 3,980 0.80 16349 2.6 8.00 Commercial 9,367 • Taxi 8,065 0.97 37125 2.6 10.60 • Diesel microbus 902 0.97 37125 12 8.00 • Mini microbus - 0.90 37125 18 • LPG microbus 400 0.88 37125 12 8.00 Government 4,275 • Gasoline car 3,206 0.80 24830 2.6 11.14 • Diesel jeep 1,069 0.80 24830 2.6 8.90 Bus Total 2,214 • Diesel 2,192 0.31 39600 50 3.90 • Trolley bus 22 0.14 39600 50 0.75 Minibus Total 2,437 0.68 37125 30 5.40 3-wheeler Total 5,085 • Battery 650 0.91 32340 10 5.83 • Petrol 3,175 0.64 32340 1.8 11.65

46 chapter FIVE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

Fuel efficiency, Registered Operation Load VKT3 km/l (km/Kw-h vehicles1 factor2 factor4 for electric)5 • Diesel 669 - 32340 10 12.50 • LPG 591 0.72 32340 10 14.70 Motorcycle Total 173,646 • Two-stroke 38,202 0.70 10950 1.6 38.40 • Four-stroke 135,444 0.70 10950 1.6 53.80

Sources: 1. The number of registered vehicles quoted is as of July 2004. In the original data available from the DOTM, the vehicle categorisations are very broad, namely, car/jeep/van, pick-up, microbus, bus, minibus, three-wheeler, and motorcycle. The numbers of vehicles by type of use (private, commercial, government, etc.) and fuel (gasoline, diesel, LPG, electric) have been disaggregated using various assumptions and past studies (see Dhakal (2003a), Dhakal (1996), JICA (1993), WECS (2000), Bhatta and Joshi (2004), Ale (2004), etc.). For motorcycles, 22% are assumed to be two-stroke. To estimate the number of three-wheelers with different fuel types, actual numbers of vehicles given in various reports and information obtained from the workshop that was organised as a part of this study were used. Out of the 22 existing trolley buses, only three are operational. 2. “Operation factor” is defined as the ratio of operational to registered vehicles. Operation factors for buses, minibuses, microbuses and three-wheelers are esti- mated using actual numbers based on route permits issued by the DOTM. Operation factors are high in some of the categories due to the large number of new vehicles. 3. All VKT data is taken from Dhakal (2003a) and SOMEN (2001). 4. “Load factor” is defined as the average number of passengers. All data are taken from Dhakal (2003a), which comes from mostly Bose and Srinivasachary (1997). 5. There is no reliable estimate of the fuel efficiencies of vehicles. There is no established urban driving cycle and no data comes from scientifically reliable test results. Instead, these data come from surveying drivers about their monthly fuel use and distance travelled and do not provide much information on fuel efficiency by type, age, engine size or the level of loading or on emission deterioration rates. These data have come from a variety of sources based on the expert judgment of the author: gasoline car/vans—WECS (2000); diesel car/jeep/vans—Pradhan (2004); taxis—WECS (2000); diesel and LPG microbuses—Pradhan (2004); government vehicles—WECS (2000); diesel buses—Pradhan (2004); trolley buses—Bhatta and Joshi (2004); three-wheelers—Dhakal (2003a), WECS (2000); motorcycles—Dhakal (2003a).

47 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Table 5.3 Vehicle emission factors for different pollutants

CO HC NOX SO2 PM10 CO2 LDV Private • Gasoline 261.93 87.98 17.11 1.50 2.27 3984.8 • Diesel 24.80 10.40 11.20 4.92 7.20 3440.0 Commercial • Taxi vans 261.93 87.98 17.11 1.50 2.27 3984.8 • Diesel microbus 24.80 10.40 11.20 4.92 7.20 3440.0 • LPG microbus 36.45 15.93 9.56 0.00 0.00 1620.0 Government/semi • Gasoline cars 261.93 87.98 17.11 1.50 2.27 3984.8 • Diesel car/jeep 24.80 10.40 11.20 4.92 7.20 3440.0 Bus • Diesel 24.00 11.10 35.61 4.92 11.70 3440.0 • Trolley 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Minibus Diesel 24.80 10.40 11.20 4.92 8.10 3440.0 Three-wheeler • Battery 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 • Gasoline 248.60 155.40 2.20 1.50 5.83 3984.8 • Diesel 28.13 15.75 162.50 4.92 21.00 3440.0 • LPG 36.45 15.93 9.56 0.00 0.00 1620.0 Motorcycle • 2-stroke 184.32 234.24 3.84 1.50 19.20 3984.8 • 4-stroke 726.30 69.94 11.30 1.50 4.30 3984.8

Sources:

1. The emission factor for SO2 is calculated based on the sulfur content of fuels. Gaso- line is 1000 ppm and diesel is 3000 ppm. The density of gasoline is 0.75 kg/l; and of

diesel, 0.82 kg/liter. The molecular weight of S and SO2 are 32 and 64 respectively.

2. Emission factors for CO, NOX, and HC are taken from Dhakal (2003a).

3. For PM10, values are borrowed from World Bank (1997). In the case of three-wheel- ers and motorcycles, values are borrowed from the case of Delhi (see Michael Walsh, Impact of Fuel Conversion on Emission Levels of 2-3-wheelers, Reduction of Emissions from 2-3-wheelers, 5-7 September, 2001, organised by Asian Develop- ment Bank, Hanoi, Vietnam).

48 chapter FIVE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

5.2.2 Future projections sophisticated simulations. Because LEAP uses the concepts of sector, LEAP, which was developed by sub-sector, end-use and devices, Stockholm Environment Institute in demand and resource analysis can Boston, is a useful tool for scenario be carried out at each stage, from analyses as it allows for comparing end-use to primary energy level. In and analysing alternative scenarios this study, we limited our analyses systematically and easily through to demand. For future projections, its various software functions. 2004 was selected as the base year The ASIF structure can be built and a planning horizon up to 2025 into LEAP software. Although was considered at five-year inter- LEAP is basically an accounting vals—2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. framework, users can also carry out

Sector Sub-sector(s) End-use Device (passenger-km) (share) (by vehicle and fuel type) (1/occupancy rate)

Light duty vehicles Fuel density, kg/liter Energy intensity Private l/km Gasoline Energy content, MJ/kg Diesel Two-wheelers Emission factor Two-stroke g/l Four-stroke Public Taxies—gasoline Microbuses Diesel LPG Three-wheelers Gasoline Diesel Battery-operated LPG Government vehicles Gasoline Diesel

Minibuses—Diesel

Buses—Diesel Diesel Electric trolley buses Figure 5.2 Structure of analysis using LEAP

49 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

In this study, sector, i.e. travel nomic growth of the Valley, and demand in passenger-km, is taken time; the dependent variable was as the base level for aggregation. travel demand. The adjusted R2 of Travel demands up to 2025 were the regression was 0.87.44 exogenously estimated using multi- ple regression analysis of past travel In regression, population estimates demand, past and future Valley were taken from CBS (2001) and population, and the past and future IUCN (1999) and Gross City Prod- expected economic growth in Excel ucts were estimated from projected spreadsheet and then supplied to national GDP (past GDP is taken LEAP. The second level of aggrega- from Economic Survey 2004 and past tion is sub-sector, or the share of volumes) and the 13% contribution road and rail transportation in the of the Kathmandu Valley (based on total travel demand. The third level JICA, 1993). It is assumed GDP will of aggregation is end use, or the grow by 4% till 2007 and by 6.5% split of travel demand among each after that (this is a moderate scenario mode as a share of the total demand. for GDP growth; scenarios for low The fourth level is device, which is and high rates of GDP growth will characterised as vehicle space per also be presented). passenger (the inverse of vehicle oc- cupancy) and energy intensity (fuel Although LEAP was used to analyse economy in l/km). Emission factors the future, two of the variables

for CO2, CO, HC, NOx, SO2, and needed were estimated using Excel

PM10 are specified, in g/l. Scenarios spreadsheets: were constructed for business-as- • Average future fuel efficiencies usual and alternative policies for of the vehicle fleet by type of the future, and the implications for vehicle energy demand and environmental • Average emission factors of the emissions under these scenarios vehicle fleet by type of vehicle were analysed. This study estimates the average In this study, the future projections fuel efficiencies of the vehicle fleet of travel demand were calculated with the help of spreadsheet models using multiple regression analyses. consisting of (1) the average fuel The independent variables of the efficiency of the base year (2) fuel regression analyses were the future efficiencies of new vehicles (3) the population of the Valley, the eco- addition of new vehicles into the 50 chapter FIVE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK fleet, and (4) the scrapping of newly-added vehicles, (3) the addi- 20-year-old vehicles. A roll-back tion of new vehicles into the fleet, method is used, as shown in equa- (4) the scrapping of 20-year-old tion 4. Similarly, the average emis- vehicles (or 10-year-old vehicles sion factors for future years are in the case of three-wheelers and estimated with the help of (1) the motorcycles), and (5) the emission average emission factor in the base deterioration rate of vehicles. year, (2) the emission factor of

NVP x NFE +[VP - NVP ] x AFE n n n-1 n-20 n-1 (4) AFEn= VPn

Where, n is the year, i is vehicle age, AFEn is the average fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet in year n, NVPn is the number of vehicles added in year n, NFEn is the average fuel efficiency of vehicles added in year n,

NVPn-20 is the number of vehicles retired in year n, VPn-1 is the number of vehicles in the previous year,

AFEn-1 is the average fuel efficiency of the previous year, and VPn is the total number of vehicles in year n.

15 NVPn x NEFn+[VPn-1 - NVPn-20] x AEFn-1 + ∑(VPn x DEFn-i+1) i i-1 AEFn= (5)

VPn

Where, AEFn is the average emission factor in year n; NEFn is the emission factor of new vehicles in year n; DEF is the emission deterioration level of vehicles which are used in year n with i age. The number of vehicles in equations 4 and 5 are back-calculated using travel demand projections and making assumptions about modal share and occupancy rates.

The emission factors for SO2 are calculated independently from the above equations.

64 SO = S x ƒ x (6) 2 32

Where, SO2 is the emission factor of SO2 in g/l, S is the sulfur content of the fuel in ppm (0.001 for gasoline; 0.003 for diesel), f is the density of fuel in kg/l (0.75 for gasoline and 0.82 for diesel), and 64 and 32 are the molecular weights of SO2 and S respectively.

44. The regression equation is: Y = 18843631354 + 1407306196 * t - 23226.69781 * Population + 51 0.163220275 * Gross City Product URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Past

Past co Past 52 Past cons Past con chapter SIX Past trends in energy consumption and pollutant emissions Historical trends in travel demand, energy consumption and pollutant emission Photo: Manish Koirala

Past consumption and pollutant emissions Past consumption and pollutan t consumption55 andTravel pollutant demand emissions Past consumption and pollutant Past consumption56 Energy and consumption pollutant emissions Past consumption and pollutant onsumption and pollutant emissions Past consumption and pollutant emissio 61 Emission of air pollutants and CO2 consumption and pollutant emissions Past consumption and pollutant emis sumption and pollutant emissions Past consumption and pollutant emission nsumption and pollutant emissions Past consumption and pollutant emissio chapter SIX PAST TRENDS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS

6.1 Travel demand

The passenger travel demand by unchanged. In recent years, however, motorised modes in the Valley especially after 2001, the share of increased from nearly one billion in microbuses seems to be rising. The 1989 to 8.7 billion passenger-km in share of buses and minibuses has 2004.45 In those 15 years, despite a decreased slightly and is being met dramatic rise in the number of cars by low-occupancy public transport and motorcycles, the shares of each modes (taxis, three-wheelers and of the major transport modes in the microbuses). total travel demand remained largely

10,000 Two-wheelers 9,000 Three-wheelers 8,000 Minibus 7,000 Bus 6,000 Government Cars and Jeeps 5,000 LPG microbuses 4,000

Passenger-km (in millions) (in Passenger-km Diesel microbuses 3,000 Taxis Private cars/ 2,000 Vans/Jeeps 1,000

0

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year

Figure 6.1 Structure of passenger travel demand in the Valley between 1989 and 2004

45 It is assumed that there were no changes in either the load factor of the vehicles or in their annual travel distances. 55 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

1.00 Government/Semi-government 0.90

0.80 Private Modes 0.70

0.60

0.50 High Occupancy Public Transport Modes 0.40 Passenger-km 0.30

0.20 Low Occupancy 0.10 Public Transport Modes 0.00 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Y Figure 6.2 Share of travel modes in the Valley between 1989 and 2004

In 2004, public transport modes met buses meet about 6% of the total about 57% of the total travel demand travel demand, whereas buses and in the Valley, while private modes, minibuses together meet 37% of the such as cars and motorcycles, met total travel demand but make up 41%. Motorcycles and private cars only 1.4% of the total operational constitute 71% and 17% of the total vehicle. Clearly, high-occupancy operational vehicles respectively, public transport is very important but they meet about 25% and 16% in the Valley. of the total travel demand. Micro-

6.2 Energy consumption

The total energy use by passenger times in 2004.46 Gasoline consump- transportation in the Valley in 1989 tion increased by a factor of five was about 658 thousand GJ; that and diesel by seven. LPG began to figure had increased by about seven be consumed in the transport sector

46. The estimates assume a 10% deterioration in the average energy efficiency of each vehicle fleet from 1989 to 2004. This figure was increased to 20% after 2004. As it turns out, energy efficiency impacts 56 were nominal, both in terms of the absolute number of vehicles as well as the structure and shares of various travel modes. chapter SIX PAST TRENDS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS in 1999. In 1997 battery-operated diesel (22.8%), LPG (1.4%) and elec- electric three-wheelers started to tricity (0.3%). Private modes—cars use electricity; their introduction and motorcycles—consume about caused electricity consumption to 53% of the total energy consumed increase, countering the decline in and meet 41% of the total travel consumption associated with a de- demand. Low-occupancy public crease in the number of operational transport modes consume 28% of trolley buses. Though electricity the total energy used. While buses use has stagnated since 2000, LPG and minibuses consume as little as usage has continued to rise due to 13% of the total energy consumed, its use in microbuses in addition to they meet 37% of the total travel three-wheelers. The share of energy demand. It is evident that buses and consumption of each of the major minibuses are more efficient energy travel modes has changed little in consumers than any other mode of the last 15 years. transport (see Figure 6.7). Energy intensity is defined as the energy In 2004, gasoline accounted for 75.5% consumed by a single passenger to of the total energy demands of pas- travel one kilometre. Energy inten- senger transportation, followed by sity estimates suggest that cars (in-

120 4.00

3.50 100 3.00 80 2.50

60 2.00

1.50 40 1.00 20 0.50

Litres of Gasoline and Diesel (in millions) 0 0.00 LPG (litre) and Electricity (KWH in millions)

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Total Gasoline Consumption, Litres Total Diesel Consumption, Litres Total LPG Consumption, Litres Total Electricity Consumption, KWH

Note: Electricity is measured in KWH; all other fuels are in given in litres.

Figure 6.3 Energy consumption by fuel in the Valley (1989-2004)

57 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

cluding taxis) and gasoline-operated particularly those of Shrestha and three-wheelers are the most energy Malla (1993), Shrestha and Malla intensive travel modes in the Valley, (1996) and the NOC sales figures while buses and minibuses are the cited by Devkota (1992). Our esti- least. In consequence, promoting the mates of gasoline consumption are latter is key to reducing petroleum higher than those of Mathur (1993), imports. and Gautam (1994), but details on the methods they used are not avail- It was impossible to compare energy able. Our figures may be slightly consumption precisely as there are different from the actual situation no published statistics on fuel use as detailed data on the numbers in the Valley. The data needed is of vehicles by fuel economy and fuel use by various modes of pas- annual distance travelled by fuel senger transportation, which is very type, engine size, and vehicle age difficult to obtain. We chose instead are not available and because there to compare our results with those are other practical problems such as of past studies. Our findings are fuel adulteration. The estimates do, presented in Table 6.1. however, provide a tentative picture of past trends for use in analysing Our estimated energy demand data future trends and evaluating the tallies closely with past estimates, implications of different scenarios.

Table 6.1 Comparison of estimated energy consumption of various modes of passenger transportation

Source Year Gasoline Diesel Remarks ('000 litres) ('000 litres) Shrestha and Malla, 1993 28,015 22,955 Shrestha and Malla, 1993, estimate the entire transport sector, not only passenger Current estimate 1992/93 31,357 7,223 transportation. Gasoline consumption is similar to our study, but diesel consumption differs because our study does not include freight transportation, tractors or construction-related vehicles. NOC sales data cited in 20,093 70,317 This data is not just for the passenger Devkota, 1992 transport sector; diesel may have included freight transport, industrial and Current estimate 1990/91 24,638 5,664 power sector consumption too. Our estimate closely resembles the gasoline estimate as it includes only the transport sector. 58 chapter SIX PAST TRENDS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS

5,000 Total Electricity Consumption, GJ 4,500 4,000 Total LPG Consumption, GJ 3,500 Total Diesel consumption, GJ 3,000 2,500 Total Gasoline Consumption, GJ 2,000 1,500

Energy consumption by pass 1,000 transportation (in thousand GJ) 500 0

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Figure 6.4 Energy consumption by passenger transportation in the Valley by fuel type

5,000 4,500 Two-wheelers 4,000 Three-wheelers 3,500 Minibus 3,000 Bus 2,500 Gov. Cars and Jeeps 2,000 LPG Microbus 1,500 Disel Microbus

Energy consumption by pass Taxies transportation (in thousand GJ) 1,000 Private Cars/Vans/Jeeps 500 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year

Figure 6.5 Energy use of passenger transportation in the Valley by vehicle type 59 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

1.00 Government/Semi-government 0.90 0.80 Private 0.70 0.60

0.50

0.40 High Occupancy Public Transport Modes 0.30

Energy Consumption, GJ 0.20 Low Occupancy 0.10 Public Transport Modes 0.00 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Figure 6.6 Structure of total energy consumed by passenger transportation in the Valley

0.55 Average for passenger transportation

0.39 Motorcycle, four-stroke

0.55 Motorcycle, two-stroke

Gasoline three-wheeler 1.60

0.21 Minibus

0.18 Bus

0.27 LPG microbus

0.36 Diesel microbus

1.22 Taxi/Van

Private LDV (Cars, Vans and Jeeps) 1.19

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 Energy intensity in mega joule/passenger-km

Figure 6.7 Average energy intensity of various transportation modes in 2004 in the Valley

60 chapter SIX PAST TRENDS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS

6.3 Emission of air pollutants and CO2

Our analyses suggest that CO, HC, source was fixed chimney-type

NOX, SO2, PM10 and CO2 emissions brick kilns, which have since been from passenger transportation in de-registered by the government. the Valley have increased signifi- cantly in the last 15 years: values Table 6.2 shows the shares of total were four to six times more in 2004 emissions of passenger transporta- than in 1989 (see Figure 6.8). The tion in 2004 by vehicle type, fuel volume of PM10, a serious problem type and travel mode. Private trans- in the Valley, has increased by port modes such as cars, vans, jeeps about 4.5 times. Emissions reaches and motorcycles are responsible nearly 700 tonnes in 2004. CO2 has for 71% of CO, 63% of HC, 50% of increased by 5.2 times; it reached NOX, 43% of SO2, 53% of PM10 and

537 thousand tonnes in 2004. 55% of CO2. Low-occupancy public transportation vehicles are the next

The concentration of SO2, which most polluting; high-occupancy is not a problem in the Valley, has vehicles are the least. Gasoline vehi- increased by similar proportions. cles account for a very high share of

Levels of SO2 exceeded, NAAQS in CO2, CO and HC emissions. Diesel

Bhaktapur in recent winter months. vehicles contribute less CO2, CO The contribution of transportation and HC but emit large amounts of was nominal, however; the major NOx, SO2 and PM10.

40,000 2,500 800,000 35,000 700,000 2,000 30,000 600,000 (in tonnes) 10 25,000 1,500 500,000 20,000 400,000 Tonnes (in tonnes) 1,000 2

15,000 and PM 300,000 2 CO 10,000 200,000

, SO 500 5,000 x 100,000 NO - 0 - 2003 1989 1997 1999 2001 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1993 1995 2001 2003 1989 1991

CO HC CO2 NOx SO2 PM10 Figure 6.8 Emissions of various air pollutants in the Valley

61 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Table 6.2 Shares of vehicles and modes in the total pollutant emissions in the Valley in 2004

By vehicle type CO HC NOx SO2 PM10 CO2 By vehicle type • Private car/jeep/van 29.6% 33.9% 37.6% 29.9% 20.1% 34.8% • Motorcycle 3.8% 8.1% 1.0% 2.7% 4.7% 4.4% • Taxi/van 19.3% 22.0% 22.5% 13.0% 8.9% 20.2% • Government car/jeep 4.2% 4.8% 6.0% 6.5% 4.3% 5.8% • Diesel microbus 0.3% 0.4% 2.2% 6.4% 4.2% 2.6% • LPG microbus 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% • Three-wheeler 3.8% 8.1% 1.0% 2.7% 4.7% 4.4% • Bus and minibus 1.2% 1.8% 18.1% 28.7% 24.9% 11.7% By fuel type • Gasoline 97.7% 96.6% 73.8% 51.0% 61.8% 79.2% • Diesel 2.1% 3.0% 25.0% 49.0% 38.2% 20.0% • LPG 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% By travel mode • Private 71.1% 62.6% 49.5% 42.8% 53.0% 54.7% • Low-occupancy public 23.5% 30.7% 26.5% 22.1% 17.8% 27.8% • High-occupancy public 1.2% 1.8% 18.1% 28.7% 24.9% 11.7% • Government/semi-government 4.2% 4.8% 6.0% 6.5% 4.3% 5.8%

The contrasts between the shares are likely targets for PM10 control.

of various modes for CO2 and PM10 The relative importance of various are worth noting since these are the transport modes in the Valley can be most important emissions in the further illustrated through emission Valley from the global and the local intensity per passenger-km. The

perspective respectively. Any syn- amounts of PM10 and CO2 emitted ergies in or conflicts over local air when a passenger travels one kilo- pollution management and global metre by various modes are shown mitigation of GHGs from passenger in Figure 6.9. Since vehicles are the transportation are likely to emerge only means to meet travel demand, from managing these modes. For a passenger’s choice of mode can example, light-duty cars and vans play a very important role in reduc-

are the primary targets for CO2 miti- ing emissions. The choice to travel gation, while buses and minibuses one kilometre by low-occupancy 62 chapter SIX PAST TRENDS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS public transport instead of private sions by 77%. Buses have the lowest transport can, for example, reduce emission intensity of all modes.

PM10 by 36%, while moving from Motorcycles also have a low emis- low-occupancy to high-occupancy sion intensity but they take up more public transport reduces CO2 emis- space than buses and minibuses do.

Estimated PM intensity for 2004 10 Estimated CO2 intensity for 2004 0.12 160 140.45 144.59 140.35 0.10 0.10 140 120 0.08 0.08 0.07 100 0.06 0.06 0.05 80 53.45 0.04 60 grams/passenger-km grams/passenger-km 40 35.83 0.02 0.02 20 11.21 16.88 - 0.00 0

Bus Bus LPG Van LPG

Diesel Diesel ep/ Minibus wheeler Minibus

microbus microbus e-wheeler microbus microbus e-wheeler

Car/Jeep/Van Two-wheeler Car/Je Two-

Thre Thre

Average CO intensity of passenger-km Average PM intensity of trave modes 2 10 by travel modes 0.12 90 0.11 84.49 85.56 0.10 80 70 0.08 0.07 60 50 0.06 0.05 40 0.04 30 20 19.68 grams/passenger-km

grams/passenger-km 0.02 10 0.00 0 Private Low-occupancy High-occupancy Private Low-occupancy High-occupancy public public public public

Figure 6.9 Comparison of emission intensities of various travel modes in grams/passenger-km

63 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Futu

Future Futur 64 Future sc Future s chapter SEVEN

Future scenarios Photo: Dilip K. Munankarmi

Future scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios 67 Baseline scenario (BASE) re scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios Future scenari Future scenarios72 Alternative Future scenarios scenarios – definitions Future and scenarios criteria for Future evaluation scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios 77 Implications of alternative scenarios re scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios Future scenario cenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios Future scenarios chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS

7.1 Baseline scenario (BASE)

Imagining the future is a challenging dependent variable in our regression task. One method widely used to analyses. Low, moderate and high foresee the future consists of setting a estimates were made. Assuming the baseline, usually a business-as-usual current problems would continue, we scenario, and then evaluating alter- projected a 4% economic growth rate native strategies by comparing them till 2007; after 2007, the low estimate to that baseline. This study follows we used is 5%; the moderate, 6.5%; the essence of this strategy but also and the high, 8.2%. The variations in makes allowances for new initiatives travel demand for low, moderate, and launched by the government and for high estimates are shown in Appen- other expected developments. dix 3. For further analyses, moderate growth was taken as a reference point for BASE and alternative scenarios. 7.1.1. Travel demand and Under moderate growth assump- vehicles tions, the passenger travel demand of the Valley will be three times more As discussed in the methodology in 2005 (27.2 billion passenger-km) section, travel demand is obtained than in 2004 (8.7 billion passen- from multiple regressions of time, ger-km). The expected numbers of population growth and economic vehicles are shown in Figure 7.147. It growth. Due to the ongoing politi- is expected that there will be twice as cal crisis prevailing in the country, many cars and motorcycles in 2025 there is more certainty about future as there were in 2004. In 2025, the population growth than about future numbers of cars and motorcycles economic growth. We used the will have quadrupled and tripled, viewpoints of a number of experts on respectively reaching nearly 132 and likely economic growth as a major in- 390 thousand in 2025.

47 This figure is back-calculated from travel demand in passenger-km assuming the same modal share, vehicle travel demand and load factor as those of 2004. The load factor for private cars gradually declined from 2.6 to 2 by 2004 due to the expected rise in the number of cars. The shares of various modes are assumed to be the same except for small, anticipated changes. This means that the number 67 of each vehicle type will increase proportionately with travel demand. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

15 600,000 566,513 s le 12.95 ic 500,000 h le e 12 p v eo r p 11.48 e 00 437,107 g 1 n er e p ss 389,388 le 9.97 400,000 a yc p rc l 9 to ta Mo 331,330 o s 8.26 T le yc 300,000 rc 304,317 to 6.85 o 239,629 f m 6 r o 233,215 be 200,000 171,204 m le Nu p Number of vehicle peo 170,261 100 rs per 4.41 ate ca 121,550 3 Priv 3.65 cars 100,000 er of 132,590 2.97 Numb 2.32 96,714

Number of vehicles per 100 people 69,485 1.79 47,744 31,837 0 0 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025

Figure 7.1 Indicators for the numbers of vehicles in intermediate years in the baseline scenario

The increase in the number of 450 429 vehicles, if not complemented with 400 the construction of additional road Total passenger vehicles 350 per km of road infrastructure (1,319 km in 2004) 331 and appropriate traffic management, 300 is likely to result in an increase in 250 251 200 the level of congestion. In BASE, the 181 number of vehicles per km of road 150 129 will increase by about three and half 100 times. 50

Number of vehicles per km road length 0 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 7.1.2 Baseline energy and Figure 7.2 Vehicles per km of emissions road in BASE

The average emission factors and fuel performance. This dynamism is efficiencies of vehicle fleets change incorporated in BASE. The fuel effi- over the years due to the introduc- ciencies of the cars newly introduced tion of progressively more stringent in the Valley (the majority of which emission standards and new, fuel- have 800-1000-cc engines) are about efficient vehicles and to the deterio- 14-16 km/l. In Japan, the average fuel ration of fuel economy and emission efficiency of new gasoline vehicles 68 chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS has increased from 12.1 km/l in life of 20 years to four-wheelers and 1996 to 14.7 km/l in 2003 and 80% 10 to three-wheelers and motorcy- of these cars have reached the 2010 cles. Another feature incorporated in fuel efficiency target for the average BASE is the phase-out of two-stroke of all weight classes of vehicles.48 three-wheelers, which has already Expecting future improvements, we been implemented in the Valley, and assumed a 20% increase in the fuel the gradual retirement of two-stroke efficiency of new vehicles by 2025. motorcycles, the new registration of which was prohibited in late 2000. Since the government has already Since there are no plans to intro- implemented EURO-I emission duce low-sulfur fuels in the Valley, standards for new vehicles, there BASE does not reflect such a change will be a gradual increase in the although India’s plans to introduce penetration level of EURO-I-compli- low-sulfur fuel may impact Nepal. ant vehicles into the fleet. However, at the moment there are no plans or We feel that in the absence of stand- discussion of a phase-wise approach ards in Nepal, Nepal will import the to moving to adopt EURO-II or higher commonly available lower-grade levels. The share of vehicles older fuel rather than better quality fuels than 20 years is significant in the total targeted for supply to key Indian me- number of operational vehicles and tropolises. Based on these assump- the government has plans to phase tions, the estimated average emission out such vehicles. BASE considers factors of priority pollutants and CO2 this phase-out, assigning an average in 2025 are shown in Table 7.1.

Table 7.1 Estimated average emission factors of vehicle fleet in 2025 in g/l

CO HC NOx SOx TSP PM10 CO2 Private gasoline vehicle 88.4 3.7 26.5 1.5 2.1 0.6 3984.8 Private diesel vehicle 11.0 5.6 11.8 4.9 10.8 1.8 3440.0 Taxi/van 88.4 3.7 26.5 1.5 2.1 0.6 3984.8 Diesel microbus 15.2 7.6 15.3 4.9 13.8 2.7 3440.0 LPG microbus 47.8 4.5 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1620.0 Government gasoline vehicles 88.4 3.7 26.5 1.5 2.1 0.6 3984.8 Government diesel vehicles 11.0 5.6 11.8 4.9 10.8 1.8 3440.0 Diesel bus 23.5 5.5 35.2 4.9 16.3 11.7 3440.0 Minibus 28.8 5.6 8.6 4.9 12.7 1.8 3440.0 LPG three-wheeler 36.5 15.9 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1620.0

48 Shinsuke Ito, Automobile Divisions of Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japan, Presentation 69 made at International Conference on Transport and Environment, Aichi, Japan, 3 August, 2005. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

In BASE, energy use by passenger taxis will account for the majority transport will be 2.2 times greater of energy consumption (76%) while in 2025 than in 2004. Gasoline the energy consumption of high- will continue to be a major trans- occupancy public travel modes portation fuel; its share in energy will remain at about 14%. The terms will be nearly 74%, followed estimates in this study are lower by diesel (23.5%). The shares of than those made by the same author LPG (2.17%) and electricity (0.37%) (Dhakal 2003a) using a static ac- will be nominal. Categorising fuel counting model which did not take consumption by vehicle shows that into account improvements in fuel motorcycles, private vehicles and economy or vehicle retirement.

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 12,000 LPG 10,000 10,216 2.2% Diesel 8,432 8,000 23.5% 6,822 7,553 6,000 5,349 6,209 Electricity 4,751 4,000 5,021 0.4% 3,937 2,403 3,591 2,016 1,638 2,000 1,083 1,292 103 140 177 222 Energy consumption (in thousand GJ) 65 0 Gasoline 29 38 12 17 23 73.9% LPG Gasoline Electricity Diesel Total

12,000 Three-wheeler 1.1% Microbus 10,000 Minibus 5.4% Government 7.8% Taxi/Vans vehicles Bus 8,000 18.1% 6.6% Gov. vehicle 2.3% Public 6,000

Private cars/ Motorcycle 4,000 vans/jeeps 25.5% 33.0%

2,000 Private Energy consumption (in thosand GJ)

0 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 Figure 7.3 Energy consumption in BASE and the shares of fuel and vehicle types

70 chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS

Given the rapid rise in energy Of the priority pollutants, only HC consumption, it can be expected is expected to decrease; all others, that emissions from passenger except PM10 will increase in the first transportation will also increase five years. The anomalous reduction rapidly. However, due to the greater of PM10 in 2010 is mainly attribut- penetration of EURO-I vehicles, the able to the following factors: scrapping of over-20-year-old vehi- • Rapid phase-out of 20-year-old cles and the improving fuel efficien- vehicles, which exist in signifi- cies of new vehicles, emissions are cant number in 2004 expected to decrease significantly. • Increase in the fuel efficiency of The introduction of more EURO-I newly-added vehicles vehicles and fuel quality improve- • Greater penetration of EURO-I ments will not, however, have any vehicles into the fleet effect on CO2 emissions, which are • Phase-out of two-stroke three- estimated to double by 2025 from the wheelers in mid-2004 and retire- 2004 level of 537 million kg. In 2025, ment of two-stroke motorcycles, 78% of such emissions will come whose new registration has not from gasoline use. Private transport been allowed since late 2000, by modes such as cars, vans, jeeps and 2010 motorcycles will account for 61% of • Slower travel demand growth total CO2 emissions though they will (and slower growth in vehicle meet only 41% of the total passenger numbers) assumed for the first travel demand, while high-occupancy few years beginning in 2004 public transport modes—buses and owing to the expected low rate minibuses—will account for only of economic growth because

12.7% of CO2 emission and meet of the ongoing problems in the 37.5% of the total passenger travel country. demand. ) 80 1400 2 0.80 0.75 7 71.27 0.70 0.68

70 ) 0.68 1200 0.70 ) 2 59.53 6 x 60 0.57 1000 0.60 0.56 6.1 48.56 and SO 0.49 5 1149 50 10 0.50 39.64 800 4 37.15 948 0.46

40 0.40 4.5 600 0.31

767 3 30 0.30 0.36 602 400 3.2

538 2

20 Million kg (CO

0.20 Million kg (NO

6.9 2.3 7.04 7.13 6.46 200 2.1 Million kg (CO and HC) 10 0.10 1 10.92 0 0 Million kg (PM 0.00 0 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025

NO SO PM CO2 CO HC x 2 10 Figure 7.4 Emissions of priority pollutants in BASE 71 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Controlling priority pollutants will that the existing measures will not continue to challenge decisions- be very effective in reducing pollut-

makers for years to come. As PM10 ants since the number of vehicles is concentrations are already higher increasing rapidly. than healthy limits, it is evident

7.2 Alternative scenarios—definitions and criteria for evaluation

This study investigated a number • Introduction and implementation of hypothetical alternative policy of a pragmatic “policy package” options derived from a policy dia- (ASIF control) logue with key stakeholders in the Valley. Not all the options discussed These options are evaluated using a could be evaluated; only the major number of criteria, as listed below. options, those deemed important Although cost is one major criterion, and easily assessed using the model cost comparisons were beyond the developed in this study, were exam- scope of this study. ined. These options are as follows. • PM10 control • Reducing population stress in the • CO2 mitigation Valley through the decentralisa- • Congestion tion of economic, political and • Energy independence administrative functions (activity control) The practicality of some of the • Improving the public transport options is be questionable, especially system and restraining private the one aimed at restraining popula- modes using push-pull strategies tion. The extent that others can be (structural control) implemented is also arguable. • Increasing the penetration of electric vehicles into the transport system (intensity and fuel control) 7.2.1 Population reduction • Gradually implementing EURO-II scenario (POP) and EURO-III standards in a phase-wise manner along with In this scenario, it is assumed that fuel quality improvements (in- population stress in the Valley will tensity and fuel control) be reduced by decentralising the po- 72 chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS litical, economic and administrative are more inefficient on a passenger- functions of the Valley. Although km basis), a significant modal shift there is no plan in this direction, the from private to public transport and idea has been addressed time and from low- to high-occupancy public again by all levels of administra- transport is possible—and desirable. tive and political establishments. A number of policy measures exist It would also balance regional for implementing this so-called development in the country. In the push-pull option. Singapore and absence of existing studies, it was Shanghai, for example, both have assumed that the average annual caps on the numbers of vehicles reg- population growth rate of 2.54% istered annually. Singapore also uses (as estimated in Development Plan a bidding system called a vehicle 2020 of Kathmandu Valley pub- quota system, in which owners buy lished by Kathmandu Valley Town licenses to own vehicles through Development Committee in 2002) competitive bidding. It is possible in BASE would be 2%. This rate of to curb vehicle use through road growth would reduce the population pricing, fuel taxes, parking control by 12% (3 million in BASE) and the and other measures. Electronic road population density would decline pricing in Singapore, road pricing in from 3,343 people per sq. m to 2,943 London (five pounds to enter down- in 2025. It was also assumed that town), and tolls on expressways in travel demand would decrease pro- several cities are examples. portionately. Since such measures are long-term, a 6% reduction was Car-restraining policies may not be projected by 2020 and 12% by 2025. popular for a government to adopt but their importance is growing as the numbers of cars and motorcycles 7.2.2 Public transport scenario are rapidly increasing and the Valley (PUBLIC) is choked already. A study carried out by DOTM shows that the vehicle- It is important to promote public carrying capacity of the existing transportation as it can reduce emis- roads in the Valley has already been sions, congestion, and energy use. If exceeded.49 There was an attempt this measure is complemented with by the government to halt the new policies to restrain private transport registration of public vehicles for means such as cars and motorcycles some time. In the future, however, it (which take up more road space and should be private, not public vehicles 73 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

that are the target. The assumptions 7.2.3 Electric vehicles scenario of the PUBLIC scenario follow. (ELECTRIC) • The share of public transport in the total passenger transport In this scenario, the role of EVs in demand will increase progres- the Valley’s transportation system sively over time from 58% in is greatly enhanced. Since electric- BASE to 70% in PUBLIC in 2025. ity comes from hydropower plants, • The increase in the share of public electric vehicles are carbondiox- transport will come solely from ide-friendly; besides, they are free curbing private transportation. of tail-pipe emissions. They also • The load factor of buses and obviate the need to import oil and minibuses will decrease from promote greater dependence on local 50 to 40 and 30 to 25 respectively energy sources. Battery-operated EVs because greater comfort is desir- have been in operation in the Valley able for promoting a shift from since 1996; driving conditions (short private to public modes. distances, low speed and accelera- • The share of high-occupancy vehi- tion, and flat topography) render the cles in passenger public transport major technical limitations associ- will increase from 64.7% to 80%. ated with EVs non-problematic. The Buses will meet 53% of the travel government has already provided demand for high-occupancy huge tax breaks and waived customs public transport due to improve- duties on the EV industry and EVs. ments in the quality of service This sector will also benefit from and preferential policies such as time-of-day electricity pricing, which exclusive lanes. (This figure is will allow it to use off-peak electric- obtained by maintaining the same ity and thereby improve its financial share of minibuses in total public base through CDMs; route preference transport—37.28%—and attribut- for trolley buses and three-wheelers; ing all additions to buses. This and others incentives. makes the share of buses 42.78% (80-64.7+27.48), or 53% of the This scenario consists of the follow- high-occupancy share (80%). ing features: This means that the share of • Expanding the existing fleet of low-occupancy public transport battery-operated three-wheelers will decrease gradually over time through preferential policies so but that in absolute value it will that all three-wheelers would be remain the same as in BASE. battery-operated by 2010. 74 49 Personal communication with the Technical Director of DOTM on 29 July, 2004. chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS

• Introducing some battery-oper- forward from EURO-I. India’s 2002 ated four-wheelers such as Auto Fuel Policy provides for Bharat India’s 800-cc REVA. Govern- Stage II (equivalent to EURO-II) to ment purchase of such vehicles be adopted from April 2005 and can boost this niche market. It EURO-III to be adopted from 2010 is assumed that 30% of the total all over the country. Bharat Stage II travel demand by government was implemented in Delhi, Mumbai, gasoline cars will be met by elec- Channai and Kolkata in 2000 and tric cars in 2025. 2001 and in seven additional cities50 • Trolley bus services, which are in in April 2003. The Auto Fuel Policy a state of collapse, will be intro- proposes to introduce EURO-III duced to the Ring Road, where a equivalent standards in April 2005 study has shown it is feasible to and EURO-IV in April 2010 for all operate them. Favourable govern- private vehicles and for city public ment policies will attract private service and commercial vehicles in investment. It is assumed that these cities. The “Auto Fuel Policy trolley buses will meet 20% of Report” states that the Indian stand- the total bus travel demand by ard for motorcycles and three-wheel- 2025. Based on a recent study by ers is already more stringent than that CEMAT Consults Pvt. Ltd., the in other regions, but that standards value for energy consumption need to be tightened because there used is 1.2 Kw-h/km, which is are so many vehicles. The European 0.024 Kw-h/passenger-km with Union has also revised its fuel quality a load factor of 50 and 0.03 Kw- and emission norms every four to five h/km with a load factor of 40 years. Thus, a phase-wise approach (CEMAT, 1999). is very appropriate.

Nepalese standards cannot surpass 7.2.4 Phase-wise emission Indian standards because of practi- standards scenario (EURO) cal realities; however, Nepal can try to catch up with the most advanced In this scenario, emission standards emission standards and fuel quality grow progressively more stringent which India uses for its major over time. Nepal adopted EURO-I cities. In this scenario, EURO-II equivalent emission standards for equivalent emission norms will be all new vehicles a few years ago, implemented for new vehicles by but it still lacks a plan for moving 2010 and EURO-III standards will be 50 Bangalore, Pune, Hyderabad, Surat, Ahmedabad, Kanpur, and Agra. 75 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

implemented by 2015. It is possible as a package of various measures. that EURO-II could be introduced One measure alone is usually not before 2010 because Nepal imports very effective as the gains made are all its vehicles and fuels from India often neutralised or overshadowed and other Third World countries by their impact (“rebound effect”) and therefore does not need to on other areas. PACKAGE is a set worry about automobile industry or of measures based on the entire petroleum refining-related issues. ASIF framework. No measure is Nepal will have to match emission overly ambitious (or, in different standards with relevant fuel quality words, they are relatively doable) specifications, especially sulfur but all are reasonably comprehen- content, because of its impact on the sive. PACKAGE has the following emission of PM. In accordance with features: past research and expert input, BASE • Activity control uses a sulfur content of 1000 ppm for – Reducing the population in gasoline and 3000 ppm for diesel. In the Valley slightly as dis- India, the specifications of the Bureau cussed earlier but at slower of Indian Standards (BIS) for 2000 for rates so that the population gasoline and diesel (BIS 2796 and BIS of the Valley will be reduced 1460 respectively) are 1000 ppm and by 10% in 2025. 2500 ppm respectively for rural areas • Structural adjustment of travel and 500 ppm for both in designated modes (making it essentially areas.51 For EURO-II and EURO-III multi-modal) norms, the sulfur content of gasoline – Increasing the share of should not exceed 500 ppm and 150 public transport to 65% ppm respectively and that of diesel from the 58% share in BASE. should not exceed 500 ppm and 350 This rise is assumed to come ppm. For EURO-IV, fuels should be from decreasing the share of sulfur-free. private cars and motorcycles in equal proportion. Within public transport, the share 7.2.5 Policy package scenario of high-occupancy modes (PACKAGE) is assumed to gradually in- crease from 64.75% to 80% In practice, policies and plans for by 2025 with buses meeting air pollution control from vehicles 10% more of the demand are formulated and implemented than minibuses. 76 51 Report of the Expert Committee on Auto Fuel Policy, Government of India, August 2002. chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS

– Increasing the comfort of – Meeting 5% of the travel public transport by gradually demand of buses by trolley reducing occupancy in buses buses by 2025. and minibuses from 50 to 40 – Implementing EURO-II from and 30 to 25 by 2025. 2010 and reducing the sulfur • Energy intensity and fuel im- content of both gasoline and provements52 diesel to 500 ppm. – Gradually making all three- wheelers electric (not LPG) by 2025.

7.3 Implications of alternative scenarios

In this section, all scenarios are com- are gradually put in place by 2025, pared to BASE, and their potentials for the reduction potential is greater reducing CO2, PM10, congestion and in later years. Analysis shows that energy resources are examined. The PACKAGE can reduce BASE con- major indicators used for comparison sumption levels by about 1.8 GJ. are, as described earlier, the amount of The next best scenario is PUBLIC, “avoided” energy, emissions, number with a 1.3-GJ reduction in 2025. of vehicles, and the substitution of The energy reduction potential of indigenously-produced electricity for ELECTRIC is nominal because the petroleum imports. number of electric trolley buses, electric cars, and battery-operated three-wheelers is so small. 7.3.1 Energy consumption reduction potential The share of gasoline in total energy use in 2025 is 74% in BASE. In fact, Results show that energy consump- in all alternative scenarios, gasoline tion will stay as it is or decrease in will continue to dominate. However, the future in all scenarios. Since its share decreases to 60% in PUBLIC various measures of each scenario due to the introduction of more

52 The effects of increasing traffic flow, introducing better inspection and maintenance programmes, and controlling fuel adulteration are important issues discussed during the policy dialogue, but they could not be incorporated because information was limited. However, since the average emission factors for 2004 were borrowed from various sources (and not calculated), reliably incorporating these features would have been difficult anyway. No attempt was made to do so. In the future, if local emission factors for vehicles by size, type and age are established, then reliable average emission factors can be 77 calculated and the effects of speed, I&M programmes and fuel adulteration can be examined. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

11 20% Public Package POP PUBLIC PACKAGE 18% 10 Electric POP ELECTRIC 16% 9 EURO BASELINE 14% 8 12% 7 10% 8% 6 6% 5 4%

Energy consumption (in Million GJ) 4 2% Percentage reduction from baseline 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 Figure 7.5 Energy consumption in alternative scenarios and reductions from BASE

buses and minibuses at the expense government subsidies, the Nepal of private cars and motorcycles. The Oil Corporation (NOC) still has a share in PACKAGE is about the same large debt. Electricity, in contrast, is 64%. In ELECTRIC, the share of locally produced. If it is not utilised, gasoline increases nominally (about it spills away. A lot of discussion is 0.5%), as diesel buses are replaced going on about the role of electric- with electric trolley buses. ity in the transportation system, but most is dominated by emission reduction viewpoints. Although the 7.3.2 Share of indigenously impact of EVs on the total energy produced energy system is expected to be small, they can help to alleviate the petroleum Increasing the share of indigenous- problem a little bit and, at the same ly-produced energy (electricity) time, help electric utilities improve is important for Nepal. Importing their energy utilisation rates. petroleum put pressures on the na- tion’s balance of payments, widens The amount of electricity used in its trade gap, and increases its BASE is nominal (37.6 thousand GJ): vulnerability to price fluctuations its use is limited to about 1,855 three- in the international oil market. The wheelers in 202553. Electricity use in resultant need for making periodic urban transportation will increase by re-adjustments to petroleum product 354% in ELECTRIC and also increase prices in the domestic market is in PACKAGE. It will, however, one of the most politically sensitive decrease nominally in PUBLIC and issues in the country. Despite heavy POP, where the role of low-occupancy

53 BASE is optimistic about battery-operated three-wheelers. This number is obtained from the assump- 78 tion that the current modal shares of public transportation and three-wheelers will persist in 2005 even if travel demand increases substantially in the future. chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS public transport will be curtailed and use is merely 1.7%. This share is travel demand will be decreased. not that small in absolute numbers, however, in the ELECTRIC scenario, The share of electricity in total Nepal will have to import 3.9 million energy use in BASE remains litres less diesel, 1.5 million litres nominal (0.37%) in 2025. Even in less gasoline and 1614 fewer tonnes the case of ELECTRIC, where the of LPG in 2025 alone. The savings in role of EVs is greatly elevated, the costs at current local retail prices is share of electricity in total energy about five million US dollars.54

184 400% 164 350% 144 300% 124 250% 104 200% 84 150% 64 44 100% 24 50% 4 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 Electricity consumption, thousand GJ

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 Percentage increase from base case -50% PUBLIC PACKAGE POP PUBLIC PACKAGE POP ELECTRIC EURO BASELINE EURO ELECTRIC

Figure 7.6 Electricity consumption in alternative scenarios and percentage increase from BASE

1.8% PUBLIC PACKAGE POP 1.6% ELECTRIC EURO 1.4% BASELINE 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Share of electricity in total energy use 0.0% 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025

Figure 7.7 Share of electricity in total energy use by passenger transportation in alternative scenarios

54 The prices used are diesel, 46 Rs./l; gasoline, 67 Rs./l (as of 20 August, 2005), and Rs. 900 for a 14.2-kg 79 gas cylinder. The exchange rate used was 75 Rs.=1 US$. URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

PACKAGE offers the most effective 7.3.3 CO2 mitigation potential measures for reducing PM10 emis- sions. Promoting PUBLIC would be Analyses of CO2 emissions show that PACKAGE has the highest potential very effective in reducing energy consumption and CO emissions to mitigate CO2 emissions from pas- 2

senger transportation; it does a 20% but it would increase PM10 emis- better job than BASE. PUBLIC can sions by 23% in 2025 (due to the reduces emissions by 15%. Incorpo- increase in the number of buses,

rating EVs will have only a minor whose PM10 emissions are higher than those of other modes) if there impact on CO2 mitigation as they cater only to a niche market. The were no improvements over BASE in the emission performances of ve- average CO2 intensities of passenger transportation in each alternative hicles. PACKAGE, which proposes scenario are shown in Figure 7.8. to implement EURO-II equivalent emission norms for vehicles from

2010 onwards, will reduce PM10 more than the EURO scenario, in 7.3.4 PM10 reduction potential which emission norms alone are greatly strengthened (EURO-II is Figure 7.9 shows the PM10 reduction potentials of each of the alterna- implemented in 2010 and EURO-III tive strategies from 2004 to 2025. in 2015).

1200 65 Public Package Public Package POP POP Electric Electric EURO Business as usual Business as usual 1100 60 EURO

1000 55

900 50 800

emissions (in million kg) 45 2 grams/passenger-km intensity of passenger transportation,

700 2 CO

40 600 Aggregate CO 500 35 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025

Figure 7.8 CO2 emissions in alternative scenarios and CO2 intensity of passenger transportation 80 chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS

60% of congestion on roads. The total Public Package POP Electric EURO number of vehicles will not decrease 50% in either EURO or ELECTRIC sce- 40% narios, which will only affect emis- 30% sion performance and fuel choice, respectively. Promoting PUBLIC 20% will result in the greatest decline 10% in the numbers of vehicles; in 2025 0% there will be nearly 160,000 fewer 2010 2015 2020 2025 vehicles, a 28% greater reduction -10% than in BASE. The decline is largely -20% Percentage reduction from baseline scenario the result of the reduction in private -30% transport vehicles such as cars and motorcycles as well as the accom- Figure 7.9 PM reduction potential 10 panying but smaller increase in the of alternative scenarios numbers of buses and minibuses. from BASE PACKAGE results in the second largest reduction in the number of 7.3.5 Numbers of vehicles vehicles (about 145,000 or 26% less reduction potential than BASE).

The numbers of vehicles will differ Table 7.2 shows the additional according to assumptions made numbers of vehicles beyond BASE about modal shares and modal that each scenario eliminates. shifts and will determine the level

Table 7.2 Number of vehicles reduced from BASE in 2025

Low-occupancy High-occupancy Light-duty vehicles Total reduction public vehicle public vehicle Car/Van/ Motor- Three- Taxi, Bus Minibus In number In % Jeep cycle wheeler Microbus POP 16,415 46,726 389 3,553 263 634 67,980 12% PUBLIC 38,807 113,967 221 9,909 (1,850) (1,217) 159,837 28% ELECTRIC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% EURO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% PACKAGE 34,054 98,770 1,387 12,704 (1,244) (46) 145,625 26% Figures in brackets represent increases in the number of vehicles. 81 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

The above figures do not show the ably decrease, but the exact amount number of EVs that will operate in will depend on the number, type and each of these alternate scenarios. size of vehicles and other factors. ELECTRIC, in particular, assumes Such considerations are reflected in that large numbers of electric trolley the EURO and PACKAGE scenarios. buses will meet 20% of the total bus The implications of the alternative travel demand in 2025, that EVs scenarios on priority pollutants in will met 30% of the travel demand the Kathmandu Valley are shown in of government vehicles, and that Table 7.4. three-wheelers will be battery-oper- ated. The number of EVs presented The analyses show that tightening in Table 7.3 under each of these emission standards alone cannot scenarios is not unrealistic. achieve dramatic reductions in

Table 7.3 The number of electric in 2025 in alternative scenarios

Battery-operated Electric Electric cars three-wheelers trolley buses BASE 0 1,884 0 POP 0 1,658 0 PUBLIC 0 1,755 0 ELECTRIC 948 3,243 438 EURO 0 1,884 0 PACKAGE 0 1,855 171

7.3.6 Priority pollutants pollutants because of the long lives reduction potential of vehicles. Since the differences between the emission factors of

Except for PM10, most priority pol- EURO-II and EURO-I vehicles lutants in the Valley are within the and the pre-EURO-I and EURO-I country’s NAAQS. Since emissions vehicles already incorporated in will increase significantly in the BASE are small, EURO’s effect is future in BASE, their impacts on pol- not much greater than that of BASE. lutant concentrations are expected However, EURO also reduces the to increase. In the future, fuel quality sulfur content of gasoline and diesel is expected to improve and emission to meet EURO-II and EURO-III

norm s to tighten. Thus, emissions norms and thus reduces SO2 emis- on a per vehicle-km basis will prob- sions 86.7% more than does BASE 82 chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS

Table 7.4 Percentage reduction from BASE of priority pollutants in alternative scenarios

2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 CO HC PUBLIC 7.8 14.4 21.0 27.5 7.2 13.4 19.5 25.1 PACKAGE 6.8 14.0 22.3 31.2 4.7 10.4 18.2 22.3 POP 0.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 ELECTRIC 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 EURO 0.4 1.9 4.2 6.6 0.4 1.5 4.6 2.9 BASE ('000 kg) 37,151 39,642 48,559 59,535 10,919 6,905 7,036 7,134

SO2 NOx PUBLIC 1.1 -0.3 -2.4 -5.4 2.0 3.4 5.9 9.1 PACKAGE 62.4 63.7 65.0 66.1 7.8 21.9 38.4 51.1 POP 0.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 ELECTRIC 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.6 3.1 3.3 EURO 67.0 86.7 86.7 86.7 4.4 18.0 36.3 52.0 Baseline scenario 314 359 457 564 2,316 3,172 4,483 6,112 value ('000 kg) in 2025. The EURO scenario also till 2010 than they are after 2010. reduces greater amounts of NOx This is due to a number of as- than other scenarios do. In general, sumptions, including (1) slower PACKAGE reduces the largest economic growth till 2007, which amount of pollutants. PUBLIC can will dampen the growth of travel reduce CO and HC emissions but demand, (2) retirement of two- increases SO2 emissions due to the stroke three-wheelers effective introduction of a large number of from July 2004, (3) retirement of diesel buses and minibuses. all vehicles more than 20 years old, and (3) replacement of old vehicles by large numbers of new 7.3.7 Major outcomes EURO-I-compliant vehicles. Large from alternative scenario amounts of priority pollutants can discussions be reduced by implementing the existing EURO-I emission norms • In all scenarios, the increases in and phasing out older vehicles travel demand, energy use, and as long as in-use emission can emissions are relatively smaller be checked. The most interest-

83 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

ing effect is on PM10 emissions, consumption. However, if no pro- whose levels will drop drastically gressive emission standards are by 2010, but, in the absence of introduced, PUBLIC will result in

any further countermeasures, will increases in the levels of PM10 and

soon start to rebound. SO2. PM10 is particularly undesir- • An interesting observation about able as the high concentration of

the effectiveness of higher emis- PM10 is already one of the biggest sion norms in the Valley is that problems in the Valley. the implementation of EURO-II norms from 2010 can reduce For the short-term—the next five large amount of emissions over years—the analyses show that the EURO-I norms, but that any combination of existing and planned additional gains in emission measures for the Valley will be effec- reduction made by introduc- tive in reducing emissions if they are ing EURO-III in 2015 would be properly implemented and if in-use nominal in 2025. This difference emission control is strictly enforced. is highlighted by comparing the Although the number of vehicles will EURO and PACKAGE scenarios. continue to grow, the rate of growth • The tightening of emission stand- will slow. For the next five to 20 years ards in EURO is very effective in a number of measures are necessary.

reducing concentrations of SO2, We emphasise that no single measure

PM10 and NOx but ineffective in will be able to meet the multiple

reducing CO2 emissions or energy objectives that the public dialogue use, promoting the utilisation of identified. A balanced approach is indigenous energy sources and needed to address pollution, public reducing congestion by reducing transport, congestion, and energy se- the number of vehicles on streets. curity, and, if possible, to contribute

Tightening emission standards to the global cause of reducing CO2 is a necessary but not sufficient emissions. measure for the Valley. • The large-scale introduction The PACKAGE scenario formulated of a bus system as a means to in this study addresses a number of improve public transportation factors in the ASIF framework which will reduce large numbers of cars, hold promise for the Valley. It consists motorcycles, and low-occupancy of a package of measures with small public transport modes and help improvements in transport activ- to reduce congestion and energy ity control, a modal shift, decreases in 84 chapter SEVEN FUTURE SCENARIOS energy consumption and emissions, shown in Table 7.5. It is also more ad- and improvements in fuel quality. ministratively and politically feasible This comprehensive package seems than a scenario which seeks to make to be the best option for meeting the major interventions in just one or two various objectives of the Valley, as areas.

Table 7.5 Performance of various scenarios over BASE in 2025

Car and Cumulative Increase in Total electric Total energy CO emission PM emission motorcycle CO reduction electricity vehicles, Scenario 2 10 consumption 2 reduction, % reduction, % reduction, 2005-2025 use in 2025, number in reduction, % number million t thousand Kw-h 2025 POP 12 12 63,141 12 0.71 1,254 1,658 PUBLIC 15 (23) 152,774 13 1.54 (715) 1,755 ELECTRIC 2.1 6.2 0 1.2 0.24 37,092 4,629 EURO 0 37.7 0 0 0 0 1,884 PACKAGE 20 47.2 132,824 18.3 2.04 8,002 2,026

85 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Rem

Future Rem 86 Removin Removin chapter EIGHT Removing barriers to the implementation of the scenarios Photo: Manish Koirala

Removing 89 barriers Synergies to the between implementation and conflicts of the over scenarios air pollution and moving barriers toCO the2 mitigation implementation of the scenarios Removing barriers t Removing 91 barriers Policies to the and implementation implementation of gaps: the scenarios The ASIF approach Removing barr scenarios 93 TheFuture nature scenarios of short-and Future long-term scenarios measures: Future scenarios oving barriers toThe the results implementation of the policy of thedialogue scenarios Removing barriers to g barriers to the implementation of the scenarios Removing barriers to the ng barriers to the implementation of the scenarios Removing barriers to th chapter EIGHT REMOVING BARRIERS TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SCENARIOS

8.1 Synergies between and conflicts over air pollution and CO2 mitigation

The scientific community recognises are scarce, institutions for urban that reducing GHG emissions from environmental management are the rapidly rising transport sector is undeveloped, policy enforcement essential for the future of Asia, espe- mechanisms are feeble, the involve- cially considering the large volumes ment of stakeholders is minimal, of GHGs emitted by India and China. local pollution issues are the main Given that the developed nations of priority, and problems are often Annex-I55 are still struggling to reduce intricately interwoven with poverty GHG emissions, it is hardly expected issues. A number of cities of South that Asians cities will be able to cope Asia and Southeast Asia, such as in the near future. Certain general Dhaka, Kathmandu, Delhi, Calcutta, challenges for the policy-makers of and Karachi, fit in this category. Asian cities in terms of mitigating GHG emissions from urban transpor- Rapidly developing/industrialising tation include building awareness, cities: In these cities, the capacity identifying resource constraints, and of local policy-makers is improving promoting scientifically sound re- rapidly, resources are scarce but search (IGES, 2004). Although there starting to build up locally, and local are no precise groups under which institutions are being strengthened. Asian cities can be classed, the fol- Local issues dominate attention lowing three categories highlight but there is growing awareness of priorities and differences that affect the need to consider newly emerg- emission policies (see Dhakal and ing issues such as global warming. Schipper, 2005). Beijing, Shanghai, and Bangkok belong in this category. Developing cities: In these cities, the capacity and authority of local Relatively developed/mature cities: policy-makers are weak, resources In these cities, conditions are better

55 Belonging to Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 89 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

than they are in the rest of Asia increases vehicle speeds, potentially and local governments are under reduces emissions, and improves growing pressure to tackle emerging fuel efficiency. Some studies report global environmental issues. The that increasing traffic speeds from standards of these cities are much between 10 and 20 km/h can cut

higher than those in other cities, but CO2 emissions by 40% (Kojima and they still struggle to control fine PM Lovei, 2001). While optimism does and ozone. Cities in Northeast Asia, exist, other studies from Mexico and such as those in Japan and South Chile show that locally favoured Korea, are examples. options do not always match GHG mitigation objectives and that global Policy-makers in developing coun- benefits are limited (Eskeland and tries still view GHG mitigation as a Xie, 1998). In Tokyo, vehicle growth diversion from their immediate needs has nearly stagnated, vehicle mileage and as a barrier to economic growth. travel is largely unchanged, and fuel The keys to changing this percep- efficiency in all sizes of vehicles con-

tion are (1) to link GHG mitigation tinues to improve. Still, CO2 emis- with clear local benefits such as air sions from transport are on the rise, pollution and energy savings and (2) primarily due to a behavioural factor: to facilitate the transfer of financial car owners in Tokyo are gradually resources from developed countries shifting towards driving bigger cars.

to developing countries for local The levels of NOx and SPM emis- benefits (Kojima and Lovei, 2001). sions remain a major issue in Tokyo; Developing an integrated policy interventions in GHG-friendly diesel response to air pollution, energy vehicles are needed (Dhakal, 2003b). efficiency and GHG emission reduc- In many developing countries in tion is not an easy task though energy Asia, a technology fix at the tail-pipe efficiency improvement can provide is a common solution to air pollution an easy entry point (OECD, 1995). In problems, but this measure does developed countries, while the rate nothing to reduce GHG emissions. of motorisation is unprecedented, improvements in the fuel economy of The exact impacts of the measures vehicles have played a major role in best suited for mitigating prior- decreasing air pollution (Kojima and ity air pollutants on reducing GHG Lovei, 2001). Another area with the emissions have not been thoroughly potential for integrated response is studied and the levels of their poten- mitigating traffic congestion, which tial synergy and conflict are largely 90 chapter EIGHT REMOVING BARRIERS TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SCENARIOS

unexplored in terms of ground exclusively for CO2 mitigation are realities. What, for example, are the neither practical nor feasible. For this effects of various PM10 mitigation reason, this study opted for a number measures and associated policies of locally possible measures and on GHGs? Answering this question evaluated their implications against becomes more complicated when a number of locally important indi- the local solution proposed is to cators, including CO2 emissions. The change the entire fuel cycle, fuel scenario analyses suggested that no type or vehicle technology, changes single measure could fully meet the which require first evaluating global local expectations of the city. Instead, benefits over the entire life cycle. a package of measures addressing a The first steps in implementing any range of issues is most suitable. The integrated measures (apart from fuel PACKAGE scenario offers the best efficiency and average vehicle speed solution to the Valley for address- improvements) is to identify reason- ing locally important issues such as able, synergistic measures, to en- reducing PM10 emissions, improving courage policy-makers in developing public transport and increasing the countries to implement them, and to share of electricity. It is interesting provide financial mechanisms such to note that PACKAGE also offers the as CDMs and other multilateral and best way to mitigate CO2 emissions. bilateral means. Change cannot be In short, there is a synergy between achieved without the strong desire the air pollution reduction measures of international institutions and and CO2 mitigation measures suitable developed countries to get involved for the Valley. Conflict could arise, in the local environmental problems though, from the fact that not all of developing countries. individually-implemented air pollu- tion reduction measures, especially Kathmandu falls in the first class of ones that fix emissions at the tail-pipe cities, where strategies that are meant only, can reduce CO2 emissions.

8.2 Policies and implementation gaps: The ASIF approach There are distinct gaps in the of air pollution control measures countermeasures currently being revolves around vehicle tail-pipes implemented in the Valley, as and does not recognise the activi- described in Section 4.4. The focus ties and structure (AS) part of the 91 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

solution. Interestingly, public advocated in the Valley, such meas- transportation vehicles have often ures have not been implemented of been blamed during policy discus- the fact that travel demand reduc- sions. In response, the government tion-related measures could not be did not allow new public transport incorporated well into these analy- vehicles to register for a brief period ses due to a number of technical a few years ago, though it placed no problems is a weakness of the study. restrictions on private vehicles. Table 8.1 shows the measures used in PACKAGE, the most desirable While urban planning-related issues scenario, and the challenges associ- such as containment, land pooling ated with implementing each. and mixed land-use have long been

Table 8.1 ASIF portrayal of the PACKAGE scenario and the challenge to its implementation

Component Approach Associated challenges A Reducing travel • Reducing in-migration through regionally balanced Activities demand by reducing national development and decentralisation of the political, the rate of in-migration administrative and economic functions of the Valley. to the Valley • Increasing political commitment to implement urban development plans. • Fostering comprehensive planning by overcoming the fragmented jurisdiction of the Valley by many municipalities and VDCs. • Calming downtown traffic by improving roads, intersections and link roads. Structure Increasing the share of • Reforming the bus system and improving its reliability and public transport and quality reducing that of cars • Managing parking and introducing other ways (fiscal, and motorcycles economic, physical) to control the numbers of cars and motorcycles • Improving the robustness of I&M programmes Intensities Phasing out vehicles • Implementing measures in spite of fierce opposition from older than 20 years concerned stakeholders Fuel Implementing • Mobilising government agencies to implement new emission progressive emission standards standards and • Finding the right incentives for the electric vehicle industry promoting the use of • Reviving and expanding the trolley bus system more battery-operated three-wheelers and trolley buses 92 chapter EIGHT REMOVING BARRIERS TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SCENARIOS

8.3 The nature of short- and long-term measures: The results of the policy dialogue

A number of solutions to the barriers NOC, and the National Planning to reducing transport-energy-emis- Commission) sion problems in the Valley have • Municipal government repre- been proposed. These proposals, sentatives such as those from as described below, are essentially the Kathmandu Metropolitan those addressed by PACKAGE but Corporation and others are not limited to that scenario • Transport entrepreneurs such as alone. They address the challenges the Federation of Nepal Chamber from both a short- and a long-term of Commence and Industry and perspective. These prescriptions representatives of the EV indus- are not a direct result of this try study’s quantitative analyses but • Local environmental NGOs were obtained through a focused such as Clean Energy Nepal and two-day policy dialogue (essen- Winrock International/Nepal tially a brainstorming exercise • Media persons (such as the Nepal with relevant stakeholders). These Forum for Environmental Jour- outcomes are useful for presenting nalists and other media outlets) barriers and possible solutions in • Donor community representa- a practical way. The participants tives such as the EU Delegation in this dialogue included various Office and Japan International stakeholders, as indicated below. Cooperation Agency (JICA). • Locally-recognised experts from academic and non-academic A summary of the discussion is institutions such as the Institute presented below. It is divided into of Engineering as well as the air three types of issues: (a) regulatory, quality management advisors of such as standards and legislation donor-assisted projects. and their enforcement, (b) urban • International experts from the and transportation planning and Asian Institute of Technology; management, and (c) technological Clean Air Resources, the Nether- aspects such as fuel quality, vehicle lands; and IGES, Japan. technology and alternative fuels. • Government decision-makers (in- cluding MOPE, DOTM, KVTPO,

93 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Table 8.2 Results of the policy dialogue with stakeholders: short- and long-term solutions to transport-energy-environment problems

Area Short-term actions Long-term actions Standards, • Developing a standard emission testing procedure by the MOPE and the • Developing progressive emission legislations DOTM. standards for new vehicles using a and their • Setting fuel quality standards and making them public by allowing step-by-step approach and a clear enforcement people to check the quality of fuel at Nepal Bureau of Standards and road map Metrology (NBSM)-accredited laboratories. • Improving fuel quality by • Regular checking of fuel quality at gas stations and publishing results coordinating between the MOPE in the media so that consumers can make good decisions even if and other line ministries and government enforcement mechanisms do not penalise culprits. involving the private sector in fuel • Establishing penalties for emission violators which are higher than the supply. cost of making repairs in order to comply with emissions. The MOPE • Procuring the best quality of fuel can formulate such legislation. that India supplies to its major • Finding appropriate ways, such as odd-even license numbers, to curb metropolitan cities. the usage of private cars and motorcycles. • Increasing awareness about the • Enforcing emission standards for in-use vehicles by regular testing, road- emission of vehicles and its likely side testing, calling smoky vehicles for emission tests and prohibiting effects by the MOPE with the smoky vehicles in certain places. This can be done by the DOTM, the support from NGOs and the KVTPO, or by private workshops. The current efforts are not sufficient. media. • The frequency of testing should be increased for heavy diesel vehicles, older vehicles and all commercial vehicles. • Increasing the cost of testing so that it recovers the actual cost and there by reduces the financial burden on the government. Coordinating the efforts of the two key enforcement authorities, the DOTM and the KVTPO, is necessary.

Urban and • Improving the transport policy formulation process. A separate, detailed • Relocating major institutions transportation transportation policy that deals with the long- and short-term needs to outside Kathmandu in a planned planning and be made with the participation of various stakeholders. fashion in order to reduce management • Focusing the Valley’s short-term transport policy on pollution reduction in-migration to Kathmandu from vehicles, improving the performance of public transportation, Valley. and traffic management by developing bus lanes, introducing proper • Constructing an Outer Ring Road one-way management and reducing encroachment on the transport round the Kathmandu Valley to infrastructure. reduce pressure on core areas • Pooling land and planning an Outer Ring Road. • Developing appropriate forms • Implementing JICA study’s recommendations on widening roads and of MRT between the city cores improving major intersections. of Kathmandu, Kirtipur and • Reducing peak-hour traffic by staggering the official hours of offices, Bhaktapur schools, and other trip-generating activities. • Developing a comprehensive • Improving the reliability and quality of public transportation with clear transport management system timetables, comfort, punctuality and route maps. plan and following up on it • Prohibiting large and wide-body vehicles from travelling on narrow consistently routes. • Promoting a non-motorised • Managing pedestrians by creating awareness about their duties and transportation system with clear rights. policies and incentives • Promoting electric vehicles in high population density, tourist and • Imposing progressively increasing heritage places. annual registration fees on • Developing an Inner Ring Road within Kathmandu Valley and extending vehicles based on age, size, and and widening the Ring Road to make it faster. efficiency

94 chapter EIGHT REMOVING BARRIERS TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SCENARIOS

Area Short-term actions Long-term actions Technological • Strengthening the fuel quality control mechanisms of the NOC • Ending the monopoly of NOC aspect such as • Studying the potential of alternative fuels such as CNG, LPG, and over fuel supply and distribution fuel quality, ethanol-blended gasoline and involving the private sector vehicle • Setting the price of fuel according to international oil price fluctuations so that the market can determine technology by reviewing prices every two weeks, as is being done in India the quality and price of fuel and alternative • Enhancing R&D in electric vehicles both in terms of policy and technical • Updating to EURO-I standards fuels research. Efforts are needed to reduce the cost by lowering the price of to make sure that Nepal follows off-peak electricity (which would not affect government revenues as it standards similar to those in major is currently wasted). This could be done through time-of-day metering. Indian cities. In the long term, A number of ways to enhance the niche market of battery-operated Nepal should adopt the highest vehicles is possible, including the introduction of airport shuttles and standards that India adopts. school buses to make a wider range. • Introducing trolley buses to the Ring Road and expanding the current service route

95 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Conc

Conclus Conc 96 Conclusio Removin chapter NINE Conclusions and recommendations Photo: Dilip K. Munankarmi

Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations clusions and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations sions and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations Concl clusions and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations Con ons and recommendations Conclusions and recommendations Conclus ng barriers to the implementation of the scenarios Removing barriers to th chapter NINE CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Due to rapid rates of motorisa- or locally prioritised measures in tion, urban transport is gradually the transport sector have multiple determining the state of air pollution benefits. Tail-pipe measures are in many Asian cities. Not surpris- particularly limited. Other meas- ingly, combating air pollution from ures reduce air pollutants but either vehicles is a top priority of urban do not impact or actually increase centres. CO2 mitigation efforts CO2 emissions. Each city has its in Asia will have to confront the own characteristics, synergies and issues of local priorities, resource conflicts with respect to CO2 and air constraints and inadequate aware- pollutant mitigation. ness. Studies show that the best entry point for CO2 mitigation in This study aimed to study the nature developing countries is to integrate of air pollutant emission, energy use it into urban development and local and CO2 emission in the Kathmandu environmental priorities and to Valley, to look at past and future strengthen international financial scenarios, and to identify plausible mechanisms such as CDM and other synergistic mitigation measures. multilateral and bilateral sources The study developed an inventory of which facilitate cities in choosing indicators for air pollutants, energy

CO2-friendly local actions. Improv- use and CO2 emission by passenger ing the energy performance of the transportation in the Kathmandu transport sector is one entry point Valley for the past and projected with multiple benefits. A modal shift them into the future using a bottom- from private to public transport is up, dynamic accounting model and another beginning; it can reduce the a scenario approach. The study then level of congestion, air pollutants, held a policy dialogue with relevant

CO2 emission and energy use. Re- stakeholders to identify local pri- straining motorised travel demand orities (PM10, congestion and energy and utilising renewable energy are use, in this case), past achievements, other measures with multi-dimen- and potential present and future sional benefits. Not all air pollution avenues for policy interventions.

99 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Using the outcomes of the dialogue, GJ it used in 1989. Projections show available data, and the model, a that it will increase only about 2.2 number of hypothetical scenarios times by 2025 as more fuel-efficient that reflected local conditions and vehicles penetrate the transporta- potential intervention avenues were tion system. As before, gasoline is formulated. These were then evalu- expected to dominate transportation ated using a few relevant indicators fuel; electricity and LPG will play

for local concerns (PM10 reduction, nominal roles. the number of vehicles [a proxy for congestion], energy saving, and Currently, private cars and motor- utilisation of indigenous energy cycles, which make up 71% of the resources) and for the global context number of operational vehicles,

(CO2 mitigation). meet 41% of travel demand and consume 53% of the total energy. The results of this study indicate High-occupancy public transport, that in 2004 Kathmandu Valley’s i.e. buses and minibuses, on the motorised travel demand had other hand, make up only 1.4% of increased 8.7-fold from nearly one the number of vehicles but meet billion passenger-km in 1989 and 37% of travel demand and consume that it would further increase to only 13% of the total energy. Using 27 billion by 2025. The share of the amount of energy consumed to public and private transport modes, travel one passenger-km by bus as however, had changed little in those a point of reference, the amount five years; public transport still is double for motorcycles and meets a little over 50% of demand. microbuses, 6.5 times for private This means that the number of cars, and 20% more for minibuses. vehicles operating will increase Public beats private transport in to half a million from the existing terms of its ability to reduce vehicle 170 thousand. By 2025, the rates of numbers, save energy and meet ownership of cars and motorcycles large travel demands. Passengers’ are both expected to double and the choice of travel modes, thus, has an number of vehicles per km of road important role in determining levels length to triple. Energy consump- of emissions. tion by passenger transportation in the Valley has also increased; The data from six air quality moni- in 2004, transport consumed seven toring stations in the Valley show times more than the 658 thousand that most of the priority pollutants 100 chapter NINE CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

are within the limit of NAAQS, increase. NOx has been particularly

PM10, however, is two times NAAQS difficult to control in the cities of a in winter months. It is estimated number of industrialised countries, that PM10 emissions from passenger including Japan. Although this transportation increased by 4.5 times study has not been able to show how between 1989 and 2004. The emis- a rise in the emissions of priority sion of PM10 from passenger trans- pollutants will affect air quality in portation is expected to decrease in the future, caution is necessary and the next five years, if emission from emissions must be decreased. in-use vehicles does not increase and it current modal shares persist. Because of Nepal's low per capita The decrease can be attributed to vehicle ownership rates, the volume several factors: greater penetration of CO2 emissions from passenger of EURO-I vehicles into the fleet, transportation in the Valley is lower expected improvements in the fuel than that in cities in developed efficiencies of new vehicles, the regions of the world. This rate has phasing out of vehicles older than however, increased 5.2 times since 20 years, the banning of two-stroke 1989 due to the rising number of three-wheelers and motorcycles, and private cars and motorcycles. It slower growth in travel demand in is estimated that the volume will the next three or four years due to double again by 2025 from 537 the expected slowing of economic thousand tonnes in 2004. The ma- growth. Levels will soon increase jority of CO2 emissions will come again, though, unless standards are from gasoline use. In particular, tightened, because of the deteriora- private cars and motorcycles emit tion in the emission performance of four times more CO2 in grams per newly introduced EURO-I-compliant passenger-km than buses and mini- vehicles and because of the rise in the buses do. Interestingly, the emission number of total vehicles. PM10 emis- of CO2 from microbuses is as bad as sion will likely catch up to and even that from private cars. Shifting from exceed the present level by 2025. private transport to low-occupancy public modes which run on petro- Although other priority air pollut- leum products (gasoline, diesel or ants are within Nepal’s NAAQS, LPG) clearly does not help to reduce these standards may need to be made CO2 emissions. The change would, more stringent in the future. Level however, reduce PM10 emissions of CO, NOx and SO2 are expected to noticeably. 101 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

Past and present policy initiatives the major objectives of the city (con-

and countermeasures are not com- trolling PM10, saving energy, using prehensive as most focus on tail-pipe more indigenously-produced energy emissions. This study emphasised sources, reducing the number of the need to develop a comprehen- vehicles to mitigate congestion, and

sive policy accompanied by a set of reducing CO2 emissions). It shows practical countermeasures covering that reducing travel demand by a all major components of the ASIF significant amount may be able to framework. It re-emphasises that address all objectives but that this small, pro-active and upstream is a long-term measure (which will countermeasures such as managing have no effect in the short-term) and travel demand and fostering a modal that its feasibility is questionable shift towards public transportation due to the past failures of various will reduce a large amount of the urban development plans. A shift of pressure to implement downstream 15% of the modal share to buses and countermeasures such as tail-pipe minibuses, for example, is likely to

emission control. increase PM10 by 23% in 2025. The introduction of EVs on a large-scale, The five alternative scenarios for- in contrast, would not reduce con-

mulated in this study are based on gestion and would reduce PM10 and

a policy dialogue and incorporate CO2 only nominally. Implementing a number of short- and long-term progressively more stringent emis- countermeasures. These scenarios sion standards to EURO-III in 2015 focus on (1) reducing travel demand will not help to reduce congestion, by dampening the population influx, save energy, or utilise more elec- (2) promoting public transportation tricity. Some of the key ideas that over private cars and motorcycles emerged from the scenario analyses (3) encouraging large-scale utilisa- follow. tion of EVs, (4) tightening emission • Implementing EURO-II norms standards gradually, and (5) im- starting in 2010 can reduce plementing a package of measures emissions substantially, but the with small interventions to address benefits in emission reduction various ASIF components. gained by 2025 through introduc- ing EURO-III for new vehicles in The study shows that each scenario 2015 would be nominal. has certain advantages but that • Tightening EURO emission none alone would be able to meet standards will very effectively 102 chapter NINE CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

reduce SO2, PM10 and NOx, but but to meet the overall objectives of it is not a sufficient step for the the city (as outlined in the policy Valley. dialogue), the best choice is a single • The large-scale introduction scenario, whether or not reducing

of a bus system as a means to CO2 emissions is seen as an objec- improve public transportation tive. will reduce large numbers of cars, motorcycles, and low-oc- This study recommends implement- cupancy public transport modes ing the countermeasures of the and thus help reduce congestion PACKAGE scenario. They include and energy usage. promoting buses and minibuses, restraining private cars and motor- This study shows that a package cycles, adopting EURO-II emission of countermeasures with small standards, using 500-ppm diesel and improvements in each of the com- gasoline, expanding trolley buses, ponents of the ASIF framework is and further promoting battery-oper- best able to address the multiple ob- ated three-wheelers in niche sectors jectives of the city. Such a package of urban transportation. will integrate the abilities of each scenario to address a particular Finally, in order to direct future objective. Further, by avoiding research some limitations of this too much intervention in any one study must be highlighted. It was sector, the package is less likely greatly hindered by a lack of in- to be unpopular politically. The formation about and data on key package would reduce CO2 emis- parameters of the model. The major sions by 20%, PM10 levels by 47%, compromises lie with the emission the number of cars and motorcycles factors, which are borrowed from by 132,824, and energy use by 18%. various other sources and with the It would also increase electricity use assumptions that were made to by 8 million KWh from the baseline disaggregate vehicles by type, fuel, case in 2025. size, and age. Due to the lack of data, the effect of various inspection and In the Kathmandu Valley, there is maintenance programmes for in-use more synergy than conflict between vehicles on emissions could not be local and global objectives. For studied. One additional limitation specific countermeasures, priorites of this research is the weak con- may differ and conflicts may arise, nection between urbanisation and 103 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

travel demand. There is almost no reduce adverse health impacts. past research on this area, so it is Emission-based studies need to be difficult to make a judgment. This linked to pollution concentration- area needs large-scale research. related research and to population The author recommends carrying exposure analyses and health effects. out research to determine the local Research on these links in the Valley emission factors of various vehicles is lacking. Research would give deci- by their type, size, speed and age. sion-makers better feedback on their Developing average emission factors proposed policies and help them for the fleets is an important first evaluate existing policies more ef- step. While this study provides an fectively and make appropriate and emission-based analysis, the actual beneficial revisions. purpose of emission control is to

104 References

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CDS (2001). City Development Strategies. Katmandu Metropolitan Corporation, Kathmandu. CEMAT (1999). Pre-feasibility study for extending trolley bus services within Kathmandu Valley. Final Report for REPSO/NEPAL, Winrock Interna- tional prepared by CEMAT Consultants P. Ltd., Kathmandu, Nepal. Devkota, S.R. (1992). Energy utilisation and air pollution in Kathmandu Valley. Unpublished Masters' thesis, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok. Devkota, S.R. (1993). Ambient air quality monitoring in Kathmandu. Project report of Kathmandu Valley Vehicular Emission Control Project (UNDP/ 92-034), Kathmandu. Dhakal, S. (1996). Electric vehicles as transportation option for Kathmandu Valley: Economics, and implications for electricity planning and the environment. Unpublished Masters' thesis, Asian Institute of Tech- nology, Bangkok. Dhakal, S. (2003a). "Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal". Energy Policy, Volume 31, Number 14, pp. 1493-1507, Elsevier Sciences. Dhakal, S. (2003b). "Assessment of local strategies for countering greenhouse gas emissions: Case of Tokyo". Working Paper, Urban Environmental Management Project, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kanagawa, Japan. Available at http://host-3.iges.or.jp/en/ue/pdf/ dhakal/dhakal_tokyo.pdf Dhakal, S. and L. Schipper (2005). "Transport and environment in Asian cities: Reshaping the issues and opportunities into a holistic framework". Inter- national Review for Environmental Strategies, Vol. 5, N. 2, pp. 399-424. Dhakal, S. and S. Kaneko (2002). "Urban energy use in Asian Mega-Cities: Is Tokyo a desirable model?" Proceedings of IGES/APN Mega-City Work- shop on Policy Integration of Energy Related Issues in Asian Cities, 23-23 January, 2002, Kitakyushu, Japan, pp 173-181. Eskeland, G.S., and J. Xie (1998). "Acting globally while thinking locally: Is global environment protected by transport emission control pro- grams? Policy Research Working Paper 1975". World Bank, Public Economics, Development Research Group, and Global Environment Unit, Environment Department, Washington, D.C. 106 REFERENCES

Gautam (1994). Study Report on Automobile Fuel: Its Import, Supply, Distribution and Quality Assurance in Nepal, Gautam and Associates, Kathmandu. Heywood, J. B. and A. Bandivadekar (2004). "Assessment of future ICE and fuel cell powdered vehicles, and their potential impacts", 10th annual Diesel Engine Emission Reduction (DEER) conference, 29 August- 2 September, San Diego, USA.

IEA (2002). CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 1971-2000 (2002 ed.), Inter- national Energy Agency, OECD, Paris. Dhakal, S. (2004). Urban energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Asian mega-cities: Policies for a sustainable future. Institute for Global Envi- ronmental Strategies (IGES), Kanagawa, Japan. IUCN (1999). Environmental Planning and Management of the Kathmandu Valley, IUCN–The World Conservation Union and His Majesty’s Gov- ernment of Nepal, Kathmandu. JICA (1993). The study on Kathmandu Valley urban road development, Final Report, Japan International Cooperation Agency, Kathmandu, Nepal. Joshi (2004). "The state of urbanisation, land use and transport planning issues in Kathmandu Valley". Paper by P.S. Joshi to IGES/START/MoPE Workshop, 29-30 July 2004, Kathmandu, available at http://host-3.iges. or.jp/en/ue/pdf/dhakal/ktm_workshop.htm. Kojima, M. and M. Lovei (2001). Coordinating transport, environment and energy policies for urban air quality management: World Bank Per- spectives, The World Bank, Washington D.C. KVTDC (2002). Development Plan 2020 of the Kathmandu Valley. Kathmandu Valley Town Development Committee, Kathmandu. KVUDPP (1991). Kathmandu Valley Urban Development Plans and Programs. Halcrow Fox, PPK and CEMAT Consult, Kathmandu. LEADERS (1999). A comparative study of air pollution in three major cities of Nepal. Leaders Nepal, Kathmandu. Lvovsky, K., G. Hughes, D. Maddison, B. Ostro and D. Pearce (2000). Environ- mental costs of fossil fuels: A rapid assessment method with application to six cities. Pollution management series, Paper No. 78, The World Bank, Washington D.C.

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Marcotullio, P. and Y. S. Lee (2003). "Urban transitions and urban transporta- tion systems", International Development Planning Review, Vol 24 (3) 325: 354, Liverpool University Press. Mathur, H.B. (1993). Final Report on the Kathmandu Valley Vehicular Emis- sion Control Project. HMG/UNDP Joint Project for Environmental Protection, Kathmandu. Michaelowa, A. (1997). "Phasing out lead in gasoline: How developing coun- tries can learn from the experiences of the industrialised world". In Fairclough, Anthony (ed.): World development aid and joint venture finance 1997/98, London, p. 268-272. NESS (1999). Ambient air quality monitoring of Kathmandu Valley. Final report of ADB-TA-2847-NEP Project prepared by Nepal Environmen- tal Services for Asian Development Bank, Kathmandu. OECD (1995). Urban Energy Handbook: Good Local Practice. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Pradhan, D. (1994). Policy analysis of selected transport sector options for mitigating air pollution: The case of Kathmandu Valley. Unpublished Masters' thesis, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok. Pradhan, S. (2004). An investment option in transport sector through Clean Development Mechanism: A case study of trolley buses in Ring Road. Unpublished Masters' thesis, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuwan University, Nepal. Schipper, L. and A. Golub (2003). Transportation and Environment in Mexico City: Reviving a Bus System or Giving in to the Auto? Proceedings of the ECEEE 2003 Workshop, European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, France. Schipper, L., C. Marie-Lilliu and R. Gorham (2000). Flexing the link between transport and greenhouse gas emission: A path for the World Bank. International Energy Agency, Paris, June. Shah, J. and T. Nagpal (1997). Urban air quality management strategies in Asia. A set of four World Bank Technical Papers: Kathmandu Valley (No. 378), Greater Mumbai (No.381), Jakarta (No. 379), and Metro Manila (No. 380), The World Bank, Washington D.C.

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Shrestha, R.M. and S. Malla (1993). Energy use and emission of air pollutants: Case of Kathmandu Valley. Unpublished manuscript, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok. Shrestha, M.L. (1995). Meteorological aspects and air pollution in Kathmandu Valley. Final report to Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, His Majesty's Government of Nepal, Kathmandu. Shrestha, R.M. and S. Malla (1996). Air pollution from energy use in a de- veloping country city: The case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Energy International Journal, 21 (9) 785-794. SOMEN (2001). Report on Vehicular Exhaust Mission with Reference to Age of Vehicles, Road Conditions and Fuel Quality Aspects; Authored by Rajbahak, H.L.; Joshi, K.M. and Ale, B.B.; Society of Mechanical Engi- neers Nepal (SOMEN), 2001. TMG (2004). Tokyo Metropolitan Government web-site http://www.kankyo. metro.tokyo.jp/ kouhou/english2002/honpen/main_1.html. Accessed on 7 December, 2004. UN (2002). World Urbanisation Prospects, 2002 Revisions. U.N. Population Division, New York. WBCDS (2004). Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability. A report published by Sustainable Mobility Project, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, July 2004, Switzerland. WECS (2000). Detailed energy consumption survey in transport sector of Nepal. Submitted by Technology and Rural Upliftment Service Team (TRUST) Pvt. Ltd, to Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS), Ministry of Waster Resources, Kathmandu. Xie, Jian, J. Shah and C. Brandon (1998). Fighting urban transport air pollution for local and global good: The case of two-stroke engine three-wheelers in Delhi, The World Bank, Washington D.C.

109 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

110 Annexes

annex ONE Nepal Vehicle Mass Emission Standard, 2056 (For Gasoline- and Diesel-Operated Vehicles)

A. Vehicles Fuelled with Gasoline (Positive Ignition Engines) 1. For Passenger Cars with up to Six Seats and Gross Vehicle Weights Less Than 2.5 Tonnes

1.1 Type 1 Test: Verifying exhaust emissions after a cold start

CO (g per km) HC and NOx (g per km) Type approval* 2.72 0.97 Conformity of production** 3.16 1.13 Note: The test shall be conducted as per the driving cycle adopted by different countries, with a cold start on a chassis dynamometer. (* Please see the explanatory note. ** Please see the explanatory note.)

1.2 Type II Test: Carbon monoxide emission at idling speed This test applies only to vehicles fuelled with leaded gasoline. The CO content by volume of the exhaust gases emitted with engines idling must not exceed 3.5% at the settings used for the Type I test.

1.3 Type III Test: Verifying emissions of crankcase gases The crankcase ventilation system must not permit the emission of any gases into the atmosphere.

1.4 Type IV Test: Determination of evaporative emission This test applies to all vehicles fuelled with leaded and unleaded gasoline. Evaporative emissions shall be less than 2 g/test.

1.5 Type V Test: Durability of pollution control devices. This test applies only to vehicles fuelled with unleaded gasoline. The test represents an endurance test of 80,000 km driven on the road or on a chassis dynamometer.

111 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

2. For Light-Duty Commercial Vehicles and Vehicles with Gross Vehicle Weights More Than 2.5 Tonnes

2.1 Type 1 Test: Verifying exhaust emissions after a cold start CO HC and NO Reference mass (kg) x (g per km) (g per km) Type approval 2.72 0.97 RM < 1250 Conformity of production 3.16 1.13 Type approval 5.17 1.40 12501700 Type approval 6.90 1.70 Conformity of production 8.00 2.00 Note: • The test shall be as per the driving cycle adopted by different countries, with a cold start on a chassis dynamometer. • Reference mass means the unladen mass, or the mass of the vehicle in running order without crew, passengers or load, but with the fuel tank full and the usual set of tools and spare wheel on board (when applicable) of the vehicle increased by a uniform figure of 100 kg. • Includes passenger vehicles with seating capacities of more than six persons or reference masses of more than 2,500 kg.

2.2 Type II Test: CO emission at idling speed This test applies to vehicles fuelled with leaded gasoline only. The CO content by volume of the exhaust gases emitted with engines idling must not exceed 3.5% at the settings used for the Type I test.

2.3 Type III Test: Verifying emissions of crankcase gases The crankcase ventilation system must not permit the emission of any of the crankcase gases into the atmosphere.

2.4 Type IV Test: Determination of evaporative emission This test applies to all vehicles fuelled with leaded and unleaded gasoline. Evaporative emissions shall be less than 2 g/test.

2.5 Type V Test: Durability of pollution control devices This test applies to vehicles fuelled with both leaded and unleaded gaso- line. The test represents an endurance test of 80,000 km driven on the road or on a chassis dynamometer.

112 ANNEXES

3. For Two-and Three-Wheelers

3.1 Type I Test: Verifying exhaust emissions after a cold start.

CO (g per km) HC and NOx Two-wheeler Three-wheeler Two-wheeler Three-wheeler Type approval 2.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 Conformity of production 2.4 4.8 2.4 2.4 Note: The test shall be as per the driving cycle adopted by different countries, with cold start on a chassis dynamometer.

3.2 Type II Test: CO emission at idling speed. This test applies to vehicles fuelled with leaded gasoline only. The CO content by volume of the exhaust gases emitted with engines idling must not exceed 3.5% at the settings used for the Type I test.

3.3 Type III Test: Verifying emissions of crankcase gases The crankcase ventilation system must not permit the emission of any gases into the atmosphere.

3.4 Type IV Test: Determination of evaporative emission. This test applies to vehicles fuelled with leaded and unleaded gasoline. Evaporative emissions shall be less than 2 g/test.

3.5 Type V Test: Durability of pollution control devices. This test applies only to vehicles fuelled with unleaded gasoline. The test represents an endurance test of 80,000 km driven on the road or on a chassis dynamometer.

B. Vehicles Fuelled with Diesel (Compression Ignition Engines) 1. For Passenger Cars with up to Six Seats and Gross Vehicle Weights Less Than 2.5 Tonnes

1.1 Type 1 Test: Verifying exhaust emissions after a cold start.

CO (g per km) HC and NOx (g per km) PM (g per km) Type approval 2.72 0.97 0.14 Conformity of production 3.16 1.13 0.18 Note: The test shall be as per the driving cycle adopted by different countries, with a cold start on a chassis dynamometer.

1.2 Type II Test: CO emission at idling speed Not applicable 113 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

1.3 Type III Test: Verifying emissions of crankcase gases The crankcase ventilation system must not permit the emission of any gases into the atmosphere.

1.4 Type IV Test: Determination of evaporative emission. Not applicable

1.5 Type V Test: Durability of pollution control devices. The test represents an endurance test of 80,000 km driven on the road or on a chassis dynamometer.

2. For Light-Duty Commercial Vehicles and Vehicles with Gross Vehicle Weights of More than 2.5 t

2.1 Type 1 Test: Verifying exhaust emissions after a cold start

Reference mass CO (g per km) HC and NOx (g per km) PM (g per km) Type approval 2.72 5.17 0.14 RM < 1250 kg Conformity of production 3.16 1.13 0.18 Type approval 6.9 1.4 0.19 12501700 kg Conformity of production 0.97 2.0 0.29 Note: The test shall be as per the driving cycle adopted by different countries, with a cold start on a chassis dynamometer. • Reference mass means the unladen mass, or the mass of the vehicle in running order without crew, passengers or load, but with the fuel tank full and the usual set of tools and spare wheel on board (when applicable) of the vehicle increased by a uniform figure of 100 kg. • Includes passenger vehicles with seating capacities of more than six persons or reference masses of more than 2,500 kg.

2.2 Type II Test: Carbon monoxide emission at idling speed Not applicable

2.3 Type III Test: Verifying emissions of crankcase gases The crankcase ventilation system must not permit the emission of any gases into the atmosphere.

2.4 Type IV Test: Determination of evaporative emission Not applicable

2.5 Type V Test: Durability of pollution control devices The test represents an endurance test of 80,000 km driven on the road or on a chassis dynamometer.

114 ANNEXES

3. For Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Vehicles with Gross Vehicle Weights (GVW) of More Than 3.5 Tonnes

3.1 Type I Test: Verifying exhaust emissions after a cold start Conformity of Pollutant Type approval production CO (g per Kw-hr) 4.50 4.90 HC (g per Kw-hr) 1.10 1.23

NOx (g per Kw-hr) 8.00 9.00 PM (g per Kw-hr) [for engines with power less than 85 Kw] 0.61 0.68 PM (g per Kw-hr) [for engines with power more than 85 Kw] 0.36 0.40 Note: The test shall be as per the test driving cycle adopted by different countries with a 13-mode emissions engines dynamometer test.

3.2 Type II Test: CO emission at idling speed Not applicable

3.3 Type III Test: Verifying emissions of crankcase gases The crankcase ventilation system must not permit the emission of any gases into the atmosphere.

3.4 Type IV Test: Determination of evaporative emission Not applicable

3.5 Type V Test: Durability of pollution control devices The test represents an endurance test of 80,000 km driven on the road or on a chassis dynamometer.

Explanatory Notes

Type approval

Most countries require some form of certification or type approval by vehicle manufacturers in order to demonstrate that each new vehicle sold is capable of meeting applicable emission standards. Usually, type approval requires the emission testing of prototype vehicles representative of planned production vehicles. Under ECE and Japanese regulations, such compliance is required only for new vehicles. U.S regulations require that vehicles comply with emission standards throughout their useful lives when maintained according

115 URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBON CONCERNS INTO LOCAL AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

to the manufacturer's specifications. The advantage of a certification or type-approval programmes is that it can influence vehicle design prior to mass production. It is more cost effective than other programmes because manufacturers identify and correct problems before production actually begins.

Approval of a vehicle

Vehicle manufacturers apply for the approval of a vehicle type with regard to exhaust emissions, evaporative emissions and durability of pollution control devices to the authority responsible for conducting the tests. The application for approval also includes details like a description of the engine type and all its particulars, drawings of the combustion chamber and piston, a description of the evaporative control system, particulars concerning the vehicles, and descriptions of pollution control devices. Only if the vehicle type submitted for approval meets the requirements of the various types of tests mentioned, is approval granted.

Conformity of production

The conformity of production is an assembly-line testing system. Its objective is to enable regulatory authorities to identify certified production vehicles that do not comply with applicable emission standards, to take remedial actions (such as revoking certification and recalling vehicles) to correct the problem, and to discourage the manufacture of non-complying vehicles. This test provides an additional check on mass-produced vehicles to ensure that the designs found adequate in certification are satisfactorily translated into production and that quality control on the assembly line is sufficient to provide reasonable assurance that vehicles in use meet standards. The basic difference between test approval and conformity of production is that the former is based on prototype vehicles or designs of vehicles while the latter measures emissions from vehicles actually produced

As per the requirements set forth by the European Union, a sufficient number of random checks are made of serially-manufactured vehicles bearing the type approval mark for all the types of tests mentioned above. The tolerance limits for conformity of production are provided in Type I tests. 116 ANNEXES

annex TWO National Ambient Air Quality Standards

Parameters Units Averaging time Maximum Test methods concentration in ambient air, Annual TSP (total μg/m3 Annual - High-volume sampling suspended particulates) 24 hours * 230 μg/m3 Annual - Low-volume sampling PM 10 24 hours * 120 μg/m3 Annual 50 Diffusive sampling based on weekly averages SO2 24 hours ** 70 To be determined before 2005 μg/m3 Annual 40 Diffusive sampling based on weekly averages NO2 24 hours ** 80 To be determined before 2005 CO μg/m3 8 hours** 10,000 To be determined before 2005 15 minutes 100,000 Indicative samples *** μg/m3 Annual 0.5 Atomic absorption spectrometry, Lead 24 hours – analysis of PM10 samples**** μg/m3 Annual 20**** Diffusive sampling based on Benzene 24 hours – weekly averages Note: *The 24-hour values shall be met 95% of the time in a year. The standard may be exceeded on 18 days per calendar year but not on two consecutive days.

**The 24-hour standards for NO2 and SO2 and the eight-hour standard for CO are not to be controlled before the MOPE has recommended appropriate testing methodologies. This will be done before 2005. *** Control by spot sampling at roadside locations. A minimum of one sample per week was taken over 15 minutes during peak traffic hours, i.e. from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. or from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. on a workday. This test method will be re-evaluated by 2005.

**** Representativeness can be proven and yearly averages can be calculated from PM10 samples from selected weekdays from each month of the year. ***** To be re-evaluated by 2005.

117 118 INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBONCONCERNSINTO LOCAL AIRPOLLUTION MANAGEMENT URBAN TRANSPORTATION ANDTHEENVIRONMENT: INKATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL

annex THREE Table A1 Total number of vehicles registered in the Bagmati Zone

Vehicle Type 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Bus 560 663 718 792 958 1,045 1,163 1,298 1,403 1,632 1,744 1,858 2,061 2,214 Minibus 1,024 1,168 1,277 1,352 1,388 1,430 1,468 1,500 1,527 1,610 1,804 2,172 2,387 2,437 Bus Minibus 1,468 1,526 1,584 1,831 1,995 2,144 2,346 2,475 2,631 2,798 2,930 3,242 3,548 4,030 4,448 4,651 Truck/Tanker 2,292 2,631 2,950 3,343 3,781 4,113 4,483 4,759 4,811 5,295 5,484 6,274 6,991 7,370 Car/Jeep/Van 14,617 15,621 16,625 17,867 19,244 20,748 22,640 24,801 27,153 28,915 30,919 35,993 40,674 43,409 45,361 51,541 Pick-up 521 999 Microbus 232 902 Three wheeler 1,638 1,746 1,854 2,666 3,844 3,844 3,844 3,844 3,844 3,925 4,262 4,778 4,949 5,073 5,073 5,085 Two wheeler 18,520 20,440 22,359 28,407 32,240 37,774 43,506 49,299 58,029 64,142 71,612 94,217 112,000 134,852 156,410 73,6461 Tractor 557 1,156 1,349 1,615 1,623 1,635 1,670 1,672 1,672 1,672 1,672 1,673 1,673 1,677 1,677 Other 2,561 2,678 3,012 3,020 3,278 3,311 3,338 3,350 3,356 3,385 3,411 Total 36,800 39,333 45,870 54,751 61,888 72,037 80,430 89,214 100,832 109,489 119,517 148,535 171,678 198,667 224,098 49,282

Note: Source: DOTM. 1989/90 data was not available so it was interpolated. From 1988/89 to 1992/93 the data includes both for bus and minibus data. All data are for July 1 of the year specified; 2004 means 2003/2004 ANNEXES

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000 Population (in thousands) 500

0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Year Figure A1 Valley population: past and future

40 38 35 33 30 28 25 23 20 18 15 13

Passenger-km (in billions) 10 8 5 3 0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Year High growth Low growth Past Moderate growth Figure A2 Travel demand under assumptions of low, moderate, and high eco- nomic growth 119 120 INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBONCONCERNSINTO LOCAL AIRPOLLUTION MANAGEMENT URBAN TRANSPORTATION ANDTHEENVIRONMENT: INKATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL

Table A2 Estimated number of vehicles in baseline scenario

Total no. of vehicles Year Private cars per 100 people Motorcycle per 100 people No. of cars No. of motorcycles Total no. of vehicles 56per km of road 2004 1.79 6.85 31,837 121,550 171,207 129 2005 1.84 6.93 33,387 126,067 177,269 134 2006 1.90 7.10 35,445 132,352 186,386 141 2007 1.98 7.33 37,958 140,141 197,661 149 2008 2.08 7.61 40,874 149,193 210,764 159 2009 2.20 7.92 44,150 159,296 225,407 170 2010 2.32 8.26 47,744 170,261 241,333 182 2011 2.44 8.60 51,622 181,924 258,318 195 2012 2.57 8.95 55,755 194,150 276,175 209 2013 2.70 9.30 60,120 206,826 294,755 223 2014 2.84 9.64 64,700 219,867 313,943 238 2015 2.97 9.97 69,485 233,215 333,662 252 2016 3.11 10.29 74,474 246,837 353,873 268 2017 3.24 10.60 79,673 260,725 374,569 283 2018 3.38 10.90 85,095 274,899 395,792 300 2019 3.51 11.19 90,765 289,405 417,613 316 2020 3.65 11.48 96,714 304,317 440,147 333 2021 3.79 11.76 102,987 319,734 463,550 351 2022 3.93 12.05 109,638 335,783 488,018 369 2023 4.08 12.34 116,733 352,616 513,787 389 2024 4.24 12.64 124,353 370,415 541,139 410 2025 4.41 12.95 132,590 389,388 570,399 432

56 Assuming that there will be no significant increase in the road length in the Valley. Table A3 Average fuel efficiencies of new cars

Two-stroke Four-stroke Light duty Light duty Diesel LPG Diesel Trolley Diesel Three-wheeler Three- Year wheeler Two- Two- gasoline vehicle diesel vehicle microbus microbus bus bus minibus battery LPG wheeler wheeler 2004 16 12 10 8 4 0.75 8 5.83 14.7 40 55 2005 16.15 12.11 10.09 8.07 4.03 0.75 8.07 5.83 14.7 40 55 2006 16.3 12.22 10.18 8.14 4.06 0.75 8.14 5.83 14.7 40 55 2007 16.45 12.33 10.27 8.21 4.09 0.75 8.21 5.83 14.7 40 55 2008 16.6 12.44 10.36 8.28 4.12 0.75 8.28 5.83 14.7 40 55 2009 16.75 12.55 10.45 8.35 4.15 0.75 8.35 5.83 14.7 40 55 2010 16.9 12.66 10.54 8.42 4.18 0.75 8.42 5.83 14.7 40 55 2011 17.05 12.77 10.63 8.49 4.21 0.75 8.49 5.83 14.7 40 55 2012 17.2 12.88 10.72 8.56 4.24 0.75 8.56 5.83 14.7 40 55 2013 17.35 12.99 10.81 8.63 4.27 0.75 8.63 5.83 14.7 40 55 2014 17.5 13.1 10.9 8.7 4.3 0.75 8.7 5.83 14.7 40 55 2015 17.65 13.21 10.99 8.77 4.33 0.75 8.77 5.83 14.7 40 55 2016 17.8 13.32 11.08 8.84 4.36 0.75 8.84 5.83 14.7 40 55 2017 17.95 13.43 11.17 8.91 4.39 0.75 8.91 5.83 14.7 40 55 2018 18.1 13.54 11.26 8.98 4.42 0.75 8.98 5.83 14.7 40 55 2019 18.25 13.65 11.35 9.05 4.45 0.75 9.05 5.83 14.7 40 55 2020 18.4 13.76 11.44 9.12 4.48 0.75 9.12 5.83 14.7 40 55 2021 18.55 13.87 11.53 9.19 4.51 0.75 9.19 5.83 14.7 40 55 2022 18.7 13.98 11.62 9.26 4.54 0.75 9.26 5.83 14.7 40 55 2023 18.85 14.09 11.71 9.33 4.57 0.75 9.33 5.83 14.7 40 55 2024 19 14.2 11.8 9.4 4.6 0.75 9.4 5.83 14.7 40 55 2025 19.2 14.4 12 9.6 4.8 0.75 9.6 5.83 14.7 40 55 ANNEXES 121 122 INTEGRATING GLOBAL CARBONCONCERNSINTO LOCAL AIRPOLLUTION MANAGEMENT URBAN TRANSPORTATION ANDTHEENVIRONMENT: INKATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL

Table A4 Average fuel efficiencies of vehicle fleets

Three- Three- Two-stroke Four-stroke Light duty Light duty Diesel LPG Diesel Trolley Diesel Year wheeler wheeler Two- Two- gasoline vehicle diesel vehicle microbus microbus bus bus minibus battery LPG wheeler wheeler 2004 11.34 8.00 8.00 8.00 3.90 0.75 5.40 5.83 14.70 38.40 53.80 2005 11.82 8.41 8.43 8.01 3.92 0.75 5.74 5.83 14.70 38.33 53.93 2006 12.31 8.83 8.51 8.02 3.93 0.75 6.06 5.83 14.70 38.26 54.05 2007 12.78 9.23 8.61 8.03 3.95 0.75 6.35 5.83 14.70 38.10 54.16 2008 13.23 9.60 8.72 8.05 3.98 0.75 6.61 5.83 14.70 37.91 54.28 2009 13.63 9.94 8.83 8.06 4.00 0.75 6.85 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.37 2010 14.00 10.25 8.94 8.09 4.02 0.75 7.05 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.45 2011 14.28 10.47 9.04 8.11 4.05 0.75 7.17 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.55 2012 14.53 10.68 9.15 8.14 4.08 0.75 7.29 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.62 2013 14.78 10.89 9.25 8.17 4.11 0.75 7.44 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.68 2014 15.02 11.08 9.35 8.20 4.13 0.75 7.56 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.73 2015 15.24 11.26 9.44 8.24 4.15 0.75 7.65 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.77 2016 15.46 11.44 9.53 8.27 4.19 0.75 7.73 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.80 2017 15.67 11.61 9.62 8.30 4.21 0.75 7.81 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.82 2018 15.88 11.77 9.70 8.34 4.24 0.75 7.88 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.84 2019 16.06 11.91 9.79 8.37 4.26 0.75 7.95 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.85 2020 16.24 12.06 9.87 8.57 4.29 0.75 8.01 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.86 2021 16.46 12.23 9.95 8.62 4.33 0.75 8.09 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.86 2022 16.67 12.40 10.03 8.67 4.35 0.75 8.20 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.87 2023 16.84 12.53 10.51 8.71 4.37 0.75 8.34 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.88 2024 17.01 12.66 10.59 8.76 4.41 0.75 8.44 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.88 2025 17.24 12.84 10.71 8.83 4.45 0.75 8.50 5.83 14.70 36.80 54.89 URBAN

This study presents analyses of the current status of the emission of air

TRANSPORTATION pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) and the energy use in the Kathmandu Valley which is associated with urban passenger transportation. It also includes a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to help identify plausible synergistic mitigation measures. In this pursuit, the study

developed an inventory of priority air pollutants, energy use and CO2 emission

associated with passenger transportation in the Kathmandu Valley for the an d

past and projected these values into the future with the help of a bottom-up, th e

dynamic accounting model and a scenario approach. In the process, a policy ENVIRONMENT dialogue was held with relevant stakeholders in the Valley to identify issues of local priority (which were identifi ed as PM10 emissions, congestion and energy use), past achievements, and the potential present and future avenues

for policy interventions in the Valley. Using the outcomes of this dialogue, in

available data, and an accounting model, a number of scenarios that refl ect Kathmandu local conditions and potential intervention avenues were formulated. These scenarios were then evaluated using a few indicators that are relevant to the

Valley

local context (changes in PM10 emissions, number of vehicles, and conserva- ,

tion of energy and utilisation of indigenous energy resources) and the global Nepal

context (mitigation of CO2 emissions).

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies www.iges.or.jp HEADQUARTERS TOKYO OFFICE KANSAI RESEARCH CENTRE KITAKYUSHU OFFICE PROJECT OFFICE IN BANGKOK 2108-11, Kamiyamaguchi, Nippon Press Center I.H.D. CENTER 3F, Kitakyushu International c/o UNEP-RRC. AP, Hayama, Bldg. 8F, 2-2-1 1-5-1 Wakinohamakaigan- Conference Center 6F, Outreach Bldg., 3F, AIT Kanagawa, Uchisaiwai-cho, Dori, Chuo-ku, 3-9-30, Asano, Kokurakita-ku, P.O. Box 4, Klongluang, 240-0115, Japan Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Kobe, Hyogo Kitakyushu, Fukuoka, Pathumthani 12120, Tel +81-46-855-3700 100-0011, Japan 651-0073, Japan 802-0001, Japan Thailand Fax +81-46-855-3709 Tel +81-3-3595-1081 Tel 81-78-262-6634 Tel +81-93-513-3711 Tel +66-2-524-6441 E-mail [email protected] Fax +81-3-3595-1084 Fax 81-78-262-6635 Fax +81-93-513-3712 Fax +66-2-524-6233