ABSTRACT ESCALATION AND RADICALIZATION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: A MICRO-COMPARATIVE STUDY OF GENOCIDE Damir Kovačević, Ph.D. Department of Political Science Northern Illinois University, 2018 Michael Clark, Director Why does genocide occur in some locations and at some times but not in other locations or at other times? My project seeks to analyze the complex, dynamic, and extraordinary phenomenon of genocide by applying the micro-comparative method. I argue that genocide should not be studied as a two-stage process of policy and implementation, but rather as part of a multi-dimensional framework that is subject to various conditions. By framing the research this way, we can answer two important shortcomings in current studies of genocide: Why is genocide the outcome in some cases of political violence, but not in other cases? And, what explains leaders’ decisions to escalate violence over time? I am proposing that genocide is not a singular act, but rather a radical and cumulative process dependent on events, interactions, ideologies, and actors. My study adopts a nuanced theory that accounts for the necessary structural and agency factors to better explain the process of genocide. I situate my micro-comparative study within the case of the Bosnian Civil War (1992-1995), by examining how and why genocide occurred across different municipalities. NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY DEKALB, ILLINOIS MAY 2018 ESCALATION AND RADICALIZATION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: A MICRO-COMPARATIVE STUDY OF GENOCIDE BY DAMIR KOVACEVIC ©2018 Damir Kovačević A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Doctoral Director: Michael Clark ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the encouragement and guidance of some very amazing people. First, I would like to thank my dissertation committee, Dr. Michael Clark, Dr. Ches Thurber, and Dr. Scot Schraufnagel, for their invaluable direction and feedback these last couple of years. Dr. Michael Clark, you have shaped my knowledge of comparative politics, beginning with my first semester as a lowly Master’s student, to my candidacy exam period, and now to the dissertation stage. Dr. Scot Schraufnagel, you were the first person to welcome me to Northern Illinois University during my visit in April of 2012. You instilled in me the importance of scholarship from day one. This is something I will never forget as I embark on my career as a political scientist. Dr. Thurber, I would like to add a special thanks to you. You were new to Northern Illinois University when you agreed to work with me on my dissertation. Since that day, you have been nothing short of excellent as mentor. I could not have developed my methodological and theoretical skills without your leadership. Thank you for showing enthusiasm for my dissertation, and more importantly, thank you for always remaining humble and positive. Next, I would like to thank my amazing support group – those individuals who were my rock over the past six years of this journey. Jackie Nevarez, you are a special person. Whenever I hit a low, you lifted me up each and every time. You also kept me grounded and humble and made sure I never developed that irritating academic ego. I am grateful for these last couple of iii years, and I look forward to post-dissertation life with you. I would also like to extend my gratitude to Ben Dunning, Chris Brough, Evan Kasemeotes, Li-Yin Liu, Paul Van Rooy, and Sean Daly. I am so lucky to have found other individuals who embrace their quirks as much as I do. Thank you for being YOU, always, and thank you for being wonderful friends. Lastly, I would like to add a special thanks to Dr. Pete Myers and Dr. Steven Majstorovic. Dr. Myers, you are the most articulate individual I have had the pleasure of knowing. As an undergraduate student, you pushed me to be the very best student I could be. Your classes were tough, but also the most memorable. You are an incredible scholar and teacher and I’m grateful to be your colleague after all these years. Dr. Majstorovic, never did I imagine I would meet someone like myself – similar background, history, and upbringing – in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. You are truly the most interesting person I have had the pleasure of knowing. You are passionate in what you do, and this passion inspired me to follow in your footsteps. I remember sitting in your Eastern European Politics class in the Fall of 2009 and deciding at that point that I wanted to continue with my education and ultimately obtain my Ph.D. in Political Science. I now get to call you a colleague and our offices are next to each other. That is super cool. DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my parents and all the courageous survivors of the Bosnian war. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES …………………………………………………………………………….. vii LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………………viii Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………………………1 Background ……………………………………………………………………….1 Puzzle ……………………………………………………………………………..2 Implications ……………………………………………………………………….7 Organization ……………………………………………………………………..10 2. MICRO-COMPARATIVE THEORY OF GENOCIDE ……………………………12 Definitions ……………………………………………………………………….12 Second-Generation Literature on Genocide ……………………………………..18 Micro-Comparative Method and Political Violence …………………………….27 Argument ………………………………………………………………………..31 Research Design and Methods ……………………………………………..……46 3. THE DISSOLUTION OF YUGOSLAVIA AND THE RISE OF NATIONALISM …………………………………………51 Early History ……………………………………………………………...……..51 Rise of Serbian Propaganda and Nationalism …………………………….……..54 Militarization of Bosnia and Herzegovina …………………………………..…..66 vi 4. ZVORNIK ……………………………………………………………………….…..80 Background …………………………………………………………………..….80 Development and Mobilization, 1990 – 1992 ……………………………….…..83 Violence in Zvornik, 1992 ………………………………………………………88 The Greater Serbia Campaign, 1992 ……………………………………………96 Analysis ………………………………………………………………………...105 5. PRIJEDOR …………………………………………………………..……………..114 Background …………………………………………………………………….114 Development and Mobilization, 1990 – 1992 ………………………........…….117 Violence in Prijedor, 1992 …………………………………………………..…124 The Greater Serbia Campaign, 1992 …………………………………………..133 Analysis ………………………………………………………………………...146 6. BRATUNAC ………………………………………………………………………153 Background …………………………………………………………………….153 Development and Mobilization, 1990 – 1992 ………………………………….156 Violence in Bratunac, 1992 …………………………………………….………161 Bosnian Serb Obstacles, 1992 – 1993 ………………………………………….168 Bosnian Muslims Defensive, 1992 – 1993 …………………………………….172 Analysis …………………………………………………………………….…..178 7. CONCLUSION ………………………………………………………………….…186 Goals …………………………………………………………………..……….186 Implications …………………………………………………………………….188 Final Remarks ………………………………………………………….………198 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Dependent and Independent Variables ………………………………………………….45 2. Case Selection Overview ………………………………………………………………..49 3. Dependent and Independent Variables – Zvornik ………………………………………82 4. Dependent and Independent Variables – Prijedor ……………………………………..116 5. Dependent and Independent Variables – Bratunac ……………………………………155 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Political Violence Framework …………………………………………………..…..16 2. Examples of Political Violence ……………………………………………………...17 3. Opportunity Model …………………………………………………………………..44 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Background Each year on July 24, survivors, relatives of victims, and fellow Bosnians, gather to commemorate the killings at the Keraterm concentration camp. Camp Keraterm, in addition to Omarska and Trnopolje, was regarded as one of the most notorious concentration camps in the Prijedor region during the Bosnian civil war. On the days of July 20 and 21, 1992, Room 3 at the Keraterm camp was filled with new detainees cleansed from the Brdo area. The newly arrived detainees were denied food and subjected to physical abuse for the first couple of days.1 But on the night of July 24, armed guards dressed in military uniforms and red berets entered the camp and placed a machine-gun in front of Room 3. On that day, nearly 200 Bosnian Muslims were massacred. The event exemplified the atrocious group-targeted violence that would sweep the Balkans, and especially the multiethnic state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. As Eastern Europe was embarking on the democratization process, the republics of Former Yugoslavia spiraled into a dark and hyper-nationalistic path of violence akin to that of Holocaust during World War II. The Keraterm massacre occurred at the onset of the Bosnian civil war, but it was only one instance of the type of violence that developed throughout the country during the three-year period. Prior to 1991, Yugoslavia was composed of six republics, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia. Fighting and hostility 1 Prosecutor v. Milomir Stakić (Judgement) IT-97-24-T (31 July 2003). 2 ensued with the secessions of Slovenia and Croatia, but it was Bosnia’s declaration of independence in March 1992 that escalated the violence to a new level. The term Etničko čišćenje, as used by Serbian military groups, gained international prominence as a euphemism for a final solution. Ethnic cleansing – or the systematic removal of ethnic or religious groups from a given territory to create a purely homogeneous society – quickly became the narrative used for far more haunting acts when described in detail. The severity of ethnic cleansing included but was not limited