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E Different Faces of e dierent faces of "so power": the Baltic States and Eastern Neighborhood between Russia and the EU Editors: Toms Rostoks and Andris Spruds Editors: Toms Rostoks and Andris Spruds Andris and Rostoks Toms Editors: 2015 The different faces of “soft power”: the Baltic States and Eastern Neighborhood between Russia and the EU Editors: Toms Rostoks and Andris Sprūds This publication aims to provide a thorough analysis and conceptual (re)definition of “soft power” projected by the EU and Russia in the shared neighbourhood. The book will have a special focus on Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia among the EU’s Eastern Partners. It will also examine the experience of the Baltic States, which, despite being full-fledged members of the EU, still remain an area of interaction and contestation. Editors: Toms Rostoks and Andris Spruds Authors: Victoria Bucataru, Sergi Kapanadze, Linas Kojala, Jakub Korejba, Andis Kudors, Kai-Olaf Lang, Ahto Lobjakas, Victoria Panova, Gatis Pelnens, Leonid Polyakov, Diāna Potjomkina, Toms Rostoks, Rafal Sadowski, Andris Spruds, Aivaras Zukauskas The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, its partners or any other institution. English language editor: Emily Kernot (endtoend editing) Design and layout: Līga Rozentāle ISBN: 978-9984-583-61-7 (printed) 978-9984-583-62-4 (PDF) UDK: 32(4)+316.77(4) Di382 © Authors of the articles, 2015. © Līga Rozentāle, cover design and layout, 2015. © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2015. Contents Introductory Remarks /Andris Spruds/ 6 Forms of Russian and EU Power in the ‘New Eastern Europe’ /Toms Rostoks/ 8 Germany, the European Union, and Their Gentle Force in the European Neighbourhood – A Comparison of Two Soft Power Engines /Kai-Olaf Lang/ 30 Poland’s Soft Power in Eastern Europe /Rafal Sadowski/ 64 Russia’s ‘Soft’ Policies towards the Baltic States /Victoria V. Panova/ 80 Will Russia Ever Be Soft? /Jakub Korejba/ 100 Ukraine: Bread with, or without, Freedom? /Leonid Polyakov/ 122 Moldova Still at a Crossroads: Is the European Path Irreversible? /Victoria Bucataru/ 141 Russia’s Soft Power in Georgia – A Carnivorous Plant in Action /Sergi Kapanadze/ 162 Russia’s Soft Power in Lithuania: The Impact of Conflict in Ukraine /Linas Kojala, Aivaras Zukauskas/ 184 Estonia: Fearing ‘Decoding by Russia’ /Ahto Lobjakas/ 202 Diverging Faces of ‘Soft Power’ in Latvia between the EU and Russia /Andis Kudors, Gatis Pelnens/ 220 Soft Power of the EU and Russia in Eastern Europe: Soft Power vs (not so) Soft Manipulation? /Toms Rostoks, Diana Potjomkina/ 243 About the Authors 256 Introductory Remarks /Andris Spruds/ his is a book about the different faces of soft power and its projection in the shared neighbourhood of the European Union (EU) and Russia – or the ‘New Eastern Europe’. “Soft power” has recently achieved the status of Tan extensively applied concept in both academic analysis and public discourse. Above all, it describes the ability to attract, rather than coerce, as a means of persuasion and efficient foreign policy. Soft power aims primarily to address and attract the hearts and minds of other societies. However, the concept has not escaped methodological and political controversy as it evolved in the context of a transforming international and regional environment and within adjusting national strategies. Susceptibility to outside soft power influences and correlating societal and strategic orientations are a continuously important issue in the Baltic and Black Sea regions. The countries in these regions have experienced a dramatic transformation during the last two decades following the breaking-up of the Soviet Union. Both regions essentially still remain “in the making”. Interaction with and power projection by the EU and Russia has had a considerable imprint on transforming post-Soviet societies. Soft power has become an increasingly important inducement in the process of making societal and strategic prefer- ences. However, there have also been considerable divergences between the two regions. While Baltic countries are determined to orient themselves to the West and seek the membership in the Euro-Atlantic community, the strategic choices of Black Sea societies underwent a variety of trajectories and manifestations. Recent events in Ukraine have served as a stark reminder of the com- plex interplays of power wielded by Russia, the EU and separate EU Member States, and obstacles standing in the way of multilateral dialogue and integra- tion of Eastern neighbours into Euro-Atlantic structures. The EU and Russia apply a variety of instruments of influence and power projection, and many of them can be classified as “soft”– cultural, societal, and economic influence, and the attractiveness of societal performance rather than political or military pressure. These “soft” instruments are indispensable for achieving long-term gravitation from neighbouring states and societies towards either the EU or Russia. At the same time, the nature and impact of these instruments have been difficult to accurately appraise. Moreover, what is deemed “soft power”, can in many cases be considered “soft manipulation” when cultural, humanitarian, and economic tools become instrumental to gain influence over partners. 6 This book aims to contribute to the understanding of these trends, the driving factors, and dynamics regarding soft power in the shared neighbour- hood between the EU and Russia. The publication particularly focuses on Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia among the EU’s Eastern Partners, and juxta- poses their experiences to those of the three Baltic States. The latter countries already belong to the European Union but remain a playing field where EU and Russian “soft powers” still intersect - and the EU is often treated as an external player, as a ‘them’. Hence, a thorough examination of the EU’s and Russia’s soft power vectors and tool-boxes is important. The publication also offers a re-assessment and re-conceptualization of “soft power”. The authors analyse in their respective chapters, people-to-people relations, economic ties, information tools, cultural affairs, and trans-border cooperation. This com- parative perspective allows the identification of differences among countries and the involved stakeholders, and defines the nature and scope of the dynam- ics and impact of soft power on societal preferences and different countries’ strategic choices. This publication intends not only to address these issues in a comparative perspective but also endeavours to provide policy recommenda- tions to encourage the application of soft power in order to facilitate a mutual understanding and attractiveness. Russia’s adventurism and the conflict in Ukraine has considerably undermined a mutual trust and invoked notions of a “hybrid war”, “manipulative power”, and “weaponization of soft power”. However, promotion of attractiveness and role models for a societal gravi- tation for other nations still remains a much more efficient and benevolent leverage in the long-term and an important, positive stabilizer in the wider neighbourhood between the EU and Russia. The Latvian Institute of International Affairs would like to extend its most sincere gratitude to all authors and partners who made this publication possible, and to the readers maintaining interest in understanding soft power, its consequences and prospects in the shared space between the European Union and Russia. 7 Forms of Russian and EU power in the ‘New Eastern Europe’ /Toms Rostoks/ his study is about power in the ‘New Eastern Europe.’ The security landscape in Eastern Europe has changed considerably in recent years, and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and the ongoing military conflict Tin eastern Ukraine, has prompted experts and policy-makers to reassess their perceptions of the security situation in Eastern Europe. Once again, the inter- est in power and its application is on the rise. Although the events in Ukraine have underlined the importance of hard power, this book discusses more sub- tle forms of power, because concerns over Russia’s hard power are just one part of what worries countries in the ‘New Eastern Europe.’ This chapter has two parts. The first part defines power and discusses various typologies of power. Its aim is to provide the authors of subsequent chapters with a broad array of conceptual instruments for discussing forms of EU and Russian power in the ‘New Eastern Europe’, and perceptions of the EU and Russian power on the part of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia. The second part builds upon a number of softer aspects of power, and provides suggestions as to how these forms of power can be used in order to assess the interplay between the EU and Russian power in the ‘New Eastern Europe.’ Although it is soft power that is the main focus of this chapter, it also points to the complex relationship between soft and hard forms of power. Countries that belong to the ‘New Eastern Europe’ have been the targets of Russia’s soft power efforts for a number of years. What worries these countries most, however, is Russia’s readiness to cross the line between soft and hard power. In other words, this study builds on the widespread per- ception that, in the case of Russia, soft power is simply a prelude to application of hard power, if soft power falls short of achieving Russia’s core aims with regard to its neighbouring countries. Power: definitions and typologies Hans J. Morgenthau has asserted that power is the currency of interna- tional relations, and “international politics, like all politics, is a struggle for power … whatever the ultimate aims of international politics, power is always 8 the immediate aim.”1 Although some might disagree with this statement, few would go so far as to ignore the importance of power in world politics. Power is important because states are yet to prove that harmonious coexistence is possible. States still seek power, and acquiring power is seen as a pre-requisite for security (at a minimum) and influence (at a maximum).
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