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NASA I CP NASA Conference Publication 2257 2257 ~

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--I The Conception, Growth, $!$ Accomplishments, and Futurer( igi=”-I’ of -2----s I Meteorological Satellites

Proceedings of the session on Meteorological Satellites at the American Meteorological Society’s 62nd Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas January 11-15, 1982 TECH LIBRARY KAFB, NM

The Conception, Growth, Accomplishments, and Future of Meteorological Satellites

Proceedings of the session on Meteorological Satellites at the American Meteorological Society’s 62nd Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas January 11-15, 1982

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Scientific and Technical information Branch 1982 PREFACE

Meteorological satellites have developed to where they are now considered to be an integral part of the nation's routine meteorological observation system. Since the initial thoughts and plans were developed during the 1950's, significant progress has been made in the application of space technology for meteorological uses. New understanding of our atmosphere and useful applications of imagery at both global and local scales have resulted from the program. The papers provided in this report were prepared not only to provide an opportunity to reflect on the accomplishments, but to provide a basis from which the future potentials might be envisioned. The authors and their respective organizations have played very important roles in the meteorological satellite system development and application activities.

The papers presented in this report were prepared for presentation at the American Meteorological Society's 62nd Annual Meeting held January 11-15, 1982, in San Antonio, Texas. They comprised the session on Meteorological Satellites - Their Conception, Growth, Accomplishments and Future. The papers are published with the approval of the authors and the American Meteorological Society.

A companion session entitled Meteorological Satellites - Past, Present and Future was organized for the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics' 20th Aerospace Sciences Meeting held January 11-14, 1982, in Orlando, Florida. The session contained papers more orientated toward the various meteorological satellite sensor systems. The papers have been published in NASA Conference Publication #2227.

Dr. Thomas Vonder Haar, Colorado State University, Session Chairman; Dr. William W. Vaughan, NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center, Session Organizer; Dr. M. H. Davis, Universities Space Research Association, Session Recorder and Editor; Melanie A. Cook, Universities Space Research Association, Assistant Editor. TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page EARLY SATELLITE PROGRAM DEVELOPMENTS William W. Kellogg ...... 1

EARLY PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION MorrisTepper ...... 5

DEVELOPMENT OF THE OPERATIONAL PROGRAM FOR SATELLITE METEOROLOGY DavidS.Johnson...... 34

MILITARY APPLICATIONS EVOLUTION AND FUTURE Brig. Gen. Albert J. Kaehn ...... 41

KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS AND THE ROLE OF SATELLITES EugeneW.Bierly...... 48

COMMENTS ON SATELLITE METEOROLOGY FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES Thomas Vonder Haar ...... 72

PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE DavidAtlas ...... -... 84

REMARKS ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS DavidS.Johnson...... 97 EARLY SATELLITE PROGRAM DEVELOPMENTS

William W. Kellogg, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado

After a youth filled with enthusiasm Mexico, was published as an appendix for Buck Rogers and a fascination with to a short report by Greenfield and

the possibility of spaceflight, it was a IIIySelf, which was classified SECRET thrill for me to represent the U.S. Air in 1951 when it first came out. Now Force on the Upper Atmosphere V-2 there is a version that was declassi- Research Panel in 1945. The first V-2's fied in order that it appear in the fired-from White Sands carried concrete archives. Bjerknes wrote "...it may be in the nose cone as ballast, but it was said that the rocket pictures add a obvious that better uses could be found considerable amount of interesting for the payload-carrying capacity. The information to the ordinary weather map scientists on the panel suggested instru- analysis and, in addition, that the ment payloads. (This panel later became accumulated knowledge from the maps the Upper Atmosphere Rocket Research help us in the new problem of inter- Panel, and continued for many years.) preting what we see from high-level rocket pictures. It may be added that Several years later, while I was although in the present report the still a graduate student at UCLA, I ordinary surface and upper wind maps joined the Rand Corporation. RAND was had to be used to a great extent to already at that time (1947) working on arrive at the total picture, accumu- the concept of satellites, though it lated experience from several analyses would be more than a decade before the from joint rocket and conventional first satellite would actually be methods would make it possible to launched. The idea that satellites arrive at the right analysis by rocket could be used as weather reconnaissance pictures only." We will see in the vehicles seemed fairly obvious. I began subsequent discussions this morning to work on the problem, and found RAND whether Bjerknes' feeling was borne with its many resources the ideal place. out or not. I was joined by Stan Greenfield, newly graduated from NYU. What we needed was There were many other activities evidence that observations from a satel- in those days - projects that eventually lite would be useful in meteorology. led to the meteorological satellite. Most meteorologists were hard to con- In January, 1949, Delbert Crowson, vince that rocket and satellite data then a Major in the Air Force, published would really be useful to them. It a short paper in the Bulletin of the AMS was another group of scientists, our with the title "Cloud Observations from cousins you might say, who coined the Rockets." In it he showed for the first word "aeronomy" and who were most time a photograph taken looking down on active in this area. They were the clouds from a rocket, and he included a people who studied charged particles short analysis. However, he did not and magnetic fields and the composition take the next step to point out the of the upper atmosphere. I considered possibilities of observations from satel- myself to be a meteorologist, but, in lites. effect, I straddled the two fields of meteorology and aeronomy. The general My favorite professor at UCLA, Jot attitude of meteorologists working on Bjerknes, had great enthusiasm for the problems of the lower atmosphere was: idea of doing a detailed analysis of "I could use all this space money in rocket pictures. The case-study by better ways." Some still have this Bjerknes, in which he interpreted several point of view. For example, the AMS sets of photographs taken high above New Upper Atmosphere Research Committee, which was chaired by Bernhard Haurwitz, Due to the delays of the Vanguard and prepared - with my help - a statement Viking programs, the first US satellite that said that there should be more with a scientific payload was actually emphasis put on the development of put up after a crash program that in- meteorological satellites. (This was volved the Army's Redstone Arsenal and in about 1956.) It seemed obvious to us the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of that this would be a good idea, and CalTech. William Pickering, James meteorological satellites were already Van Allen, and Werner Von Braun did being planned at that time. To our manage to get it up in short order -- surprise, the Council of the AMS but that's another story, since it decided not to approve the statement. didn't involve meteorology. (It did Bernhard Haurwitz was furious, not so lead to the discovery of the radiation much because of the turn-down by the belts.) Still, relatively few meteor- Council, but because of the reasons ologists were interested in the potential given. The Council said that they could of satellite observations at that time. not approve the resolution because they Notable exceptions were members of the did not have an expert on meteorological Army's Evans Signal Lab group led by satellites(!). Bill Stroud, Bill Nordberg, and Verner Suomi at the University of Wisconsin. In July, 1955, Professor Joe Kaplan (I wish Vern had been able to make it who was chairman of the US-IGY Committee to this meeting to help me reminisce announced at a meeting of the Committee about the early days of satellite Speciale de 1'Annee Geophisigue Inter- meteorology.) The experiments proposed nationale (CSAGI) in Brussels that the by the Evans Signal Lab group and the President of the United States had University of Wisconsin were backed up agreed that the US would launch a satel- by ground-based work sponsored by the lite as a contribution to the IGY for Geophysics Research Directorate of the geophysical research. Kaplan liked to Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratory. call it a "long-playing rocket", since Such people as Chan Touart, William these were the early days of long-play- Widger, Arnold Glaser, and others took ing microgroove phonograph records, and rocket pictures and began to get experi- the name was popular for a while. ence analyzing them. This experience paid off when the first satellite A panel was created under the pictures began to come in. National Academy of Sciences to guide the U.S. Scientific Earth Satellite Pro- The first satellite that could be gram. I was the meteorological member. called "meteorological" was Vanguard It was chaired by Richard Porter, whom II, a 45 kg satellite launched on 17 many of you remember; he became the February, 1959. The instrumentation long-time President of COSPAR. I was developed by the Evans Signal Lab remember that the panel constantly group, Stroud and Nordberg. It in- worried about whether we would actually volved a very simple concept similar get a satellite into orbit, since the to the scanning radiometers we have Vanguard Program depended upon the now, with a photocell that would scan Viking Rocket. The Viking had been the Earth and build up a picture one developed by Martin for the Navy. It line at a time. Scanning was to be was the most advanced rocket of its done by rotation of the satellite as it time, particularly in its guidance and went along its path, and it had a tape control systems. But unfortunately it recorder that would record the output was unstable in the early stages of its of this one cell. However, uneven flight. (It was long like a pencil and separation from the launch vehicle and developed vibrational modes of oscilla- the fact that it apparently was not tion that caused the instability.) It properly balanced meant that instead was capable of only putting about 45 kg of rotating smoothly, it wobbled so into orbit, which put serious restric- that the scan on the ground made a tions on possible instrumentation and complicated.pattern that never could be power sources. unravelled. Therefore, we never

2 actually got a picture from the Vanguard that it would take a while for NASA to II. get into high gear, so as a holding operation, the Department of Defense set The second meteorological experiment up the Advanced Research Projects Agency was entirely different. It was Suomi's (ARPA) and they decided early in the proposal for the First Earth Radiation game that a meteorological satellite Experiment. As is characteristic of would be one of its projects. Roger Suomi's ideas, it was beautifully simple Warner was in charge of ARPA's meteoro- and it worked. It consisted of ping-pong logical satellite development. He balls, in effect, on the ends of trans- called a historic meeting at the Penta- mission antennas; some of them black and gon with Gordon Vaeth, Michael Ference, some white. They measured the omni- F.W. Reichelderfer, Sigmund Fritz, and directional flux of solar and infrared Harry Wexler (who up until his death radiation. The first satellite with was one of the great supporters of the Vern's ping-pong balls went "into the program). Also, several people from the drink" shortly after launch, but the Military were there: Ernst Stuhlinger, second one was launched on 13 October, Charles Bates, Arthur Bostick, William 1959 and became Explorer 6. It worked, Widger, plus Edgar Cortright from NACA, and it got the first measurements of the which was later to become NASA. One of radiation balance from the Earth; some- the first things they did was to set up thing that I think Tom Vonder Harr is a committee to oversee the development going to tell us more about later. of a meteorological satellite.

While the Vanguard Program was I was chairman of that committee. struggling for success, there were many We had the problem of designing the other things happening. One was that the first satellite, although the general Upper Atmosphere Rocket Research Panel decision had been made to go with RCA's changed its name to the Rocket and Satel- newly developed Vidicon television tube lite Research Panel. I had been a member as the basic sensor. It was ideally all this time, and some other "big guns" suited to this application for a number joined it at this time. People like of reasons, but we had some interesting James Van Allen, Homer Newell, Werner Von problems; one of them being how to Braun, William Pickering, John Townsend, mount this Vidicon on the satellite so and several others, encouraged by Joe that it could get a picture. We did Kaplan, worked very hard to sell the not have any way of stabilizing the idea of a civilian space agency. They satellite as we do now -- it was a ro- felt there were two things a civilian tating satellite. We decided to put agency could provide that the military, the Vidicon looking along the spin axis. which had, after all, supported the For this configuration you would know rocket and satellite program very well, the direction of the picture, but you could not do. One was that, if civilian, would not know its orientation. Origin- the program could be unclassified. ally, we wanted to have three cameras: a Security classification had always been wide-angle, a medium-angle and a narrow- a nagging problem in this program. And angle with about 100 meters resolution. secondly, it would show to the world The third camera was dropped, because in that the US space program, which would those days such a detailed picture was eventually have to be very large, was in considered to be too militarily sensi- the service of mankind and was entirely tive. (This attitude may seem peculiar for peaceful objectives. nowadays, since the LANDSAT pictures now have nearly an order of magnitude better In March of 1958, President Eisen- resolution than this.) hower announced that he had decided to go ahead with the creation of NASA, the TIROS-I was turned over to NASA, to National Aeronautics and Space Agency. a division under Morris Tepper and Ed That was in the spring. It was clear Cortright, in the Spring of 1959. It

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iii I iiiiII Ii iiiIi ii KHllillmKilMlM was launched on April Fools' Day, 1960. tape recorder that was on Vern Suomi's The satellite we turned over to NASA was experiment. Tape recorders were very fairly well along in its development, important in those days because there and it worked very well after the launch. weren't that many readout stations. In the years since that famous launch in April 1960, we have seen enormous advances in the science and technology of satellite meteorology. I was personally a bit dis- appointed in those early days that appli- Unidentified Speaker: cations of this new technique did not happen faster. But we will learn from As a little historical note, Dr. the rest of the talks this morning what C-F. Brooks, founder of our society, did happen in the years that followed. was very interested in the years before the satellites ever went up. I took a course by correspondence right after high school at Clark University, where Dave Johnson: he was a professor. In that correspon- dence course, we heard a lot about It may be interesting to point out Goddard (and his rocket experiments). that in the audience this morning is Brooks expressed a lot of interest in George Ludwig, who built the sensors and rockets and told us that rockets would the tape recorder for Van Allen's satel- cast light on cloud structure. So he lite. He was listed as co-author of the really should go down in the history of radiation belt paper and also built the meteorological satellites.

4 EARLY PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION Morris Tepper, NASA (retired), Silver Spring, Maryland*

The U.S. meteorological satellite First, in anticipation of acquiring program had its earliest beginnings in the responsibility for weather satellite the Department of Defense, in its Army R Ei D, NASA transferred funds to the Ballistic Missile Agency (ABMA). It was Weather Bureau for the purpose of or- there that studies were undertaken with ganizing within the Weather Bureau an the Radio Corporation of America (RCA) entity for the meteorological processing for the utilization of television and analysis of the expected data. ' In cameras in reconnaissance. The project subsequent years, the support for this was called Janus II. entity was undertaken by the Department of Commerce. This entity has grown to Then came Sputnik I on October 4, its current mature state and is known 1957. The shock of that flight provided today as the National Earth Satellite the necessary impetus to this country, Service (NESS). forcing it to reorganize its space acti- vity so as to be in a better position to On a purely personal note, I might respond to this Soviet challenge. Among mention that the Weather Bureau, in the many actions taken at that time was turn, transferred me to NASA Headquar- the consolidation of all space reconnais- ters where I was glen the responsibil- sance activities into the Air Force. It ity for the planning, direction and the was then decided to reconfigure the implementation of the program. My ABMA's Janus II project as a meteoro- critics might cynically observe that logical satellite effort, to have its the Weather Bureau came out ahead on sponsorship taken over by the Advanced both of these transfers. Research Projects Agency (ARPA), and its named changed to TIROS. (Television and Upon receiving management responsi- -Infrared -Observational -Satellite.) bility for the TIROS program, the second coordinating action which NASA took It was also then that the national immediately, was to establish the Joint civilian space agency was born. By mid- Meteorological Satellite Advisory Com- 1958, the expressed direction which our mittee (JMSAC) . This committee included country took was to separate the purely representation from every branch of the civilian space efforts from the military DOD having weather responsibilities, as efforts and to incorporate them in a well as from the Weather Bureau. In civilian controlled agency whose actions JMSAC, which existed for five years would be totally unclassified and whose until the establishment of a new format direction was to pursue space activity under the National Operational Satellite for the benefit of man. In this way NASA System (N~Mss), the smallest details of was established on Oct. 1, 1958.(Fig. 1) satellite development, including pro- gress and future plans, were reported on In the ensuing months a number of by NASA. The DOD and WB representatives programs and projects under the direction reviewed, critiqued and contributed to of the DOD were transferred to the new these plans in the context of their agency, among these TIROS. On April 13, agency requirements; and they actively 1959, NASA assumed responsibility for the participated in the trade-off decisions existing TIROS effort and with it the that were necessary as we moved towards national responsibility for meteorological an operational system. satellite research and development. In order to insure proper and continued coor- Now, the events to which I have dination with the two agencies having the been referring transpired more than 20 greatest involvement in weather activity, years ago. It is quite natural that NASA immediately took two important steps: one's memory about events, sequences and * Current affiliation, Professor, Capital Institute of Technology, Kensington, MD. 5 dates would grow fuzzy after such a long 0 TIROS 1 proved the general concept period of time. Fortunately, I have not of retrieving useful meteorological as yet disposed of my personal corre- information from space; spondence files and papers which I took with me upon retirement from NASA. Most 0 TIROS 2 extended the imaging capa- of the material I am presenting to you bility to the scanning of upwelling today comes from that personal source. infrared radiation;

Although I was a principal partici- 0 TIROS 3 and 5 were specifically pant in the events about which I read in launched so as to be useful during these files, I became completely en- the hurricane season and more grossed, and my time became completely generally in tropical weather saturated with this reading for days and, reconnaissance; I might add, nights on end. As I con- tinued to pour over this rather old 0 TIROS 4 proved highly applicable to material, my recall of many of the de- the problems of ice formation and tails improved, and I found myself its breakup in the spring; experiencing anew the enthusiasm, the pace, the excitement, even the actual joy 0 TIROS 6 launched to overlap TIROS 5 and exhilaration which we all felt during gave us experience with operating that period. two satellites in orbit at once;

For the purpose of this talk I will 0 TIROS 7 was used primarily to insure concern myself almost entirely with the continuity of observation (it duti- first decade -- that is, through the fully survived more than 30 months); 1960's.

0 TIROS 8 carried the Automatic First, let me remind you of the Picture Transmission System (APT) satellite launch achievements during that which I will mention again later; period. (Fig. 2)

0 TIROS 9 changed the orientation of Until 1965 there were nine success- the satellite to the "cartwheel" ful TIROS launches, followed by 10 in the configuration permitting vertical operational satellite series -- for a viewing of the Earth and its atmo- total of 19 successive successful TIROS sphere from space. launches. During this same ten-year period there was one Nimbus launch failure out of four attempts. Not shown The Nimbus satellite series was that here are the launches of the communica- of a truly three-dimensional Earth-stabi- tion satellites, Application Technology lized meteorological observatory, on Satellites (ATS). On ATS-1, and again on which it was possible to check out the ATS-3, the spin scan camera was flown and numerous remote sensing instruments for showed that useful cloud cover picture measuring different components of the information could be retrieved from geo- Earth, atmosphere and solar radiation. stationary orbits (over 20,000 mi away Using ingeniously developed conversion from the Earth) from which winds could be algorithms, scientists were able to ex- derived using the cloud motion. This was tract useful meteorological parameters the precursor of the Synchronous Meteoro- from the radiation information. A some- logical Satellite (SMS) series which times overlooked product of this Nimbus would be implemented in the 1970's. series was the check out and use in space of one of the first, if not the first, Let me give you some of the high- space nuclear power supplies. With this lights of these early satellite launches: information on the successes of the pro-

6 gram, let us pause a moment to review sent there to safeguard the program's our expectations prior to the launch of interests. The other was at Ft. Mon- TIROS 1. mouth, N.J. and our man there was Sigmund Fritz. In March, 1947, a camera system was launched on a captured German V-2 rocket I had had a special telephone which, I believe, provided us our first facsimile machine installed in my look at cloud structure as seen from office, courtesy of the U.S. Signal space altitude. (Fig. 3) You will Corps. The telephone permitted me to note that fine structure in the cloud stay in voice contact with Sig Fritz at systems is well discernible. These pic- the Ft. Monmouth CDA Station and hope- tures and others acquired through subse- fully the facsimile element would be used quent sub-orbital flights fired the when the first pictures from TIROS 1 imagination of early planners to think would be received at the station. in terms of developing imaging systems to fly onboard space satellites. At long last, the critical data- taking overpass took place over Ft. Our first orbital attempts, however, Monmouth. I believe it was on the second were far from encouraging. In 1959, orbit. The "bird" was acquired, interro- Explorer VI was put into space carrying gated and data was received. The meticu- a photocell which responded to the re- lously prepared system for demodulating flected radiation from cloud tops. Fig. the signal, extracting the data, and 4 shows one of the very few (if not the converting it to a hard copy worked only) reconstructed photos (April 15, flawlessly. Finally Sig was the phone. 1959). One could not get very enthusi- astic about the future of space data such "OK, Morris, we have pictures." as this. "What do they show? Can you see a Thus, at the time of the TIROS 1 horizon? Are geographic features launch, our hopes were in the direction noticeable? Can you see clouds? Can of the earlier results from the rocket you differentiate cloud types? --- " system. But, I must confess, our expectations were not so optimistic in Sig interrupted my flood of view of the Explorer results. questions.

How well I recall that eventful "Wait a second" he said calmly, "If day -- April 1, 1960 -- the launch of you will just get off the phone, I'll TIROS 1. (Fig. 5) transmit the pictures to you and you will be able to see for yourself." We had been up all morning, starting well before 4 AM, monitoring the events Since the system could not work on at Cape Canaveral, from a special brief- both modes simultaneously, I had to hang ing and communications room in NASA up and wait impatiently while the machine Headquarters. The countdown, my very slowly painted out the transmitted pic- first, was just as exciting and possibly tures line by line. even more exciting than those which I experienced in subsequent years for And finally I had them. (Fig. 6) manned flight. Finally there was the launch. My attention then turned to our Yes, it was all there, the viewed Command and Data Acquisition Stations Earth, the horizon, the Gulf of St. (CDA Stations), which would be contact- Lawrence and the cloud pattern over the ing the "bird" -- the satellite -- Northeastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada. interrogating it and acquiring data from it. One CDA Station was located at By now we were all excited. The NASA Kaena Pt., Hawaii, and Dave Johnson was Administrator, Dr. Keith Glennan, called

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I I IIII I III I I I lllllllllllllllllll the White House, and we were requested to 0 water vapor; come right over. President Eisenhower

interrupted a cabinet meeting in order to 0 ozone; view the pictures which we had brought

over and he genuinely shared in our 0 carbon dioxide; excitement. We all felt that a break- through had taken place and that we had 0 temperature of the stratosphere, ushered in a new era. And, of course, tropopause, cloud tops and the we had. Earth's surface (some of the theoretical work of Dr. Lewis As you know, progress was rapid in Kaplan suggests a more continuous improving the quality of the space de- vertical profile of temperature rived pictures. Although the early TIROS might also be possible; products (Fig. 7) revealed magnificent,

important and usable pictures, they were 0 incoming solar radiation: still pale in comparison to what we were

able to achieve later (Fig. 8) in 0 reflected solar radiation; accuracy and clarity.

0 radiation from Earth and the So far I have spoken only of the atmosphere." cloud pictures. What about the other meteorological elements?

ALSO in this report, I spoke about I found an interesting report in my our plans for satellite systems of the files. On June 22, 1959, I appeared future. Since we hadn't as yet consi- before NAS/NRC Committee on Atmospheric dered the possibility of nonsynoptic data Sciences to brief that Committee on our assimilation, our thinking was heavily plans and aspirations for meteorological based by the then regular synoptic time satellites. Remember this was almost data analysis procedures. Therefore, one year before the launch of TIROS 1. with regard to satellite systems of the I said: (Fig. 9) future, I reported to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences: "To improve our scientific under- standing of the atmosphere, to provide "Our ultimate plans envisage a proper initial conditions for forecast- system consisting of 'a group of six or iw , and to detect existing storms, are so, pole-to-pole orbiting low-level all among the objectives of the national satellites spaced longitudinally to meteorological and rocket programs. So yield a more or less synoptic surveil- far as the meteorological satellite pro- lance of the entire globe, and another gram is concerned, it is planned to ob- system of three or four equator-orbiting serve and measure the global and local satellites to view local events continu- distribution of the following by means of ously . " photocells, television cameras, infrared and short-wave radiation detectors, radar It is remarkable how little changed onboard orbiting satellites, and by have been these objectives and plans telemetering the observations to the with the passage of time. During the selected readout stations: years that followed, every one of the parameters, about which I speculated to

0 clouds - amount and type (perhaps the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences-- motion of identifiable cloud ele- every one, and more, I might add, have ments to determine winds); been retrieved to one extent or another by means of remote sensing from space.

0 precipitation - distribution and Some of these which are proven to be intensity; applicable to climate research programs are given in Fig. 10.

0 thunderstorm distribution; With respect to our visions of the developing interest and participation future meteorological satellite systems, of academia and the scientific community here too our plans proved to be prophe- in general; and in providing the public tic. The plans for the Global Experiment with general information on what we were conducted just two years ago (Fig. 11) doing, what we had accomplished, and called for an array of satellites very what we were planning to do -- and most similar to our earliest concept: two important, the significance of each of U.S. satellites (TIROS-N and NOAA-l), two these. USSR satellites (Meteor series) and the U.S. Seasat satellite in pole-to-pole I recall, for example, after the orbit and five equatorial satellites launch of TIROS-2, we were asked to come (although since the USSR satellite was to the White House immediately and to not ready, a third U.S. satellite was bring a model of the satellite with us. used). Two of us grabbed the model which must have been about 35 inches in diameter As I continued to read through and about 20 inches high, with antennas these dust-gathering files, it became sticking out the bottom and top, and clear that while we engaged in reports, raced with it across Lafayette Square to program reviews, presentations, travel, the White House. We arrived just as meetings, coordination conferences, and President Kennedy and President Ayub seminars, we were in fact pursuing Khan of Pakistan were leaving the Oval several important objectives. The ob- Office where they had been conferring. jectives which emerge clearly from the They stopped, and still breathless from intricate matrix of feverish activity our hectic run, I explained briefly what are given in Fig. 12. Each one of these it was we had. objectives has its own fascinating story of plans, approaches, personalities, "Tell President Khan how this compromises, agreements, disappointments, satellite will help Pakistan" Kennedy developments, progress and results, and said as he turned to me. yet in each the U.S. meteorological satellite program has proven to be I can only say that in situations remarkably successful. such as that one we were fortunate that we said the proper things, to the proper Unfortunately, it will be impossible people in the proper way -- because to give proper treatment to each of these during that decade we did develop and subjects in the time allotted to me. maintain a rather enthusiastic support Rather, I will simply describe briefly for the program on many fronts. what was involved in each and leave the comprehensive treatment for other occa- 2. To solve critical technological sions and other formats. However, in problems. view of my personal interest and parti- cularly active personal involvement in Here, we were confronted at almost the international aspects of the program, one and the same time with urgent needs I have added some extended remarks on to solve critical technology problems in that phase in an Appendix. such diverse fields as mechanics, ther- modynamics, electronics, telecommunica- 1. To develop and maintain support for tions, optics and data processing. the program. Examples of the problems to be solved in some of the specific areas were: Here, we were engaged with the en- tire gamut of external relations -- with a. In satellite systems -- power developing programmatic support within supply, stabilization and con- our individual agencies; with acquiring trol, heat transfer, command financial support from the administra- devices, clocks, tracking tion, from the Executive Office of the beacons, tape recorders. President, and from Congress; with the

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I lllll b. In satellite sensors -- televi- a system. During the following three sion cameras, low-light viewing and a half years, until the National devices, and in general the Operational Meteorological Satellite development of sensors that are System (NOMSS) was established in January sensitive to different portions 1964, delicate negotiations were held at of the spectrum from which at- several levels of the government and in mospheric parameter information the public sector: could be inferred.

0 to define the operational system; Fig. 13 shows this idea sche- matically. Towards the origin, 0 to clarify the role of the opera- in a clock-wise rotation, the tional system relative to the on- electromagnetic spectrum is de- going satellite research and picted, ranging from long wave- development program; lengths to short wavelengths. On the outside are listed various 0 to assure the continuity of both; sensors particularly effective in the corresponding wavelengths. In 0 to delineate agency responsibili- between are the various meteoro- ties in the operational program logical elements that might be and in the R & D program; retrieved from the measurements taken by the indicated instru- 0 to insure the needed coordination ments for the indicated wave- at all levels of the program; lengths. 0 to incorporate, as much as possi-

C. In data handling and processing -- ble and was feasible, the military telecommunications, demodulation requirements within the civilian of signals, gridding, analogue to program. digital conversion, cataloging, and all sorts of data manipula- The health and vitality of the tion techniques. National Earth Satellite Service (NESS) and the manner in which meteorological data is currently being included in In the solution of all of these routine meteorological analysis and important technical problems, expertise forecasting attests to the success of had to be found in industry or government the early efforts in establishing a or developed within government field viable operational system. centers. The program was particularly fortunate that at the Goddard Space 4. To provide the technological base Flight Center (GSFC), there was a parti- for the Global Experiment and for cularly strong technical team, the the Climate Program. Aeronomy and Meteorology Division, headed by William Stroud, that gave extraordi- I have already referred to the nary leadership and attention to the remote sensing instruments that were solution of many of these problems. developed, sensitive to various portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, and to 3. To establish an operating system. some of the meteorological products that have been derived from these Immediately after the success of measurements. As the requirements for TIROS 1, there was strong pressure for the Global Experiment were clarified, pushing on towards an operational system an active dialogue had to be established and as indicated in Fig. 1, on October between the scientists who were seeking 10, 1960, an interagency Panel on particular data and the technologists Operational Meteorological Satellites who were able to guide them in terms of (POMS) was established to plan for such what was technologically possible. The

10 resulting compromises provided the basis Fig. 15 shows a list of inter- for proceeding with the R & D. national activities which were important elements of the Meteorological Satellite As a result, most of the elements Program. A more complete description of that are depicted in Fig. 14 are being each is given in the Appendix to this made available through the use of paper. satellite systems. The derivation of information such as this by remote This then is an overview of those sensing from space carefully conducted early years -- those exciting years -- research programs for: those highly successful years.

0 Combining raw telemetry tapes One could question how it was containing sensor data, ephemeris possible, in a mere decade of time . . . data, and spacecraft operating condition data. to establish and execute such a viable program plan for the 0 Converting telemetry information development of meteorological into physical units. satellites;

0 Developing and applying an algor- - to develop the necessary confidence ithm for interpreting the physical in sister government agencies so units in terms of geophysical that they would work in a mutually parameters. supportive mode;

0 Validating the data using ground to stimulate U.S. industry to truth; and establishing error respond enthusiastically and in a levels. timely manner;

0 Applying the data to specific to achieve the incredible record scientific problems. of so many successful launches;

to overcome the initial inertia of This is the long and tedious process the scientific community so that characteristic of research in the inter- space meteorology was included, pretation and utilization of remote both in its research and in its sensing, and we can indeed be proud that operations; the record is so full of valuable results. to maintain the momentum in tech- 5. To share developments with other nology development so that various countries and give them a sense of instrument and systems improve- participation in it. ments were on the drawing board even before the original version The national civilian space effort was launched; was established with the objectives of pursuing the "peaceful uses of outer to enlist the cooperation and the space" and "to share the benefits of support of the Administration and space activity with the other countries Congress so that resources were of the world." Nowhere were these ob- available when needed; jectives more enthusiastically adopted and more successfully achieved than in - to recruit the participation and the U.S. Meteorological Satellite Program. interest of scientists in other Actions in the direction of these objec- countries into the program, thus tives were undertaken almost immediately permitting a meaningful Global after the successful launch of TIROS 1. Atmospheric Research Program (GARP);

11 to overcome the limited image of and its successes. All of this brought weather and weather forecasting as -out the best in effort, the best in it existed before the 60's, to its creativity, the best in production, the role in big science in the 70's best in results on the part of everyone. and today. Second: There was quite a bit of I naivite on the part of the participants. As I look back, I believe that two Any experienced bureaucrat would have unique features were at work: known when we started that it simply was not possible to lay out a program plan First: In addition to the availa- such as this, much less to implement it bility of technical competence, there in the short period of ten years. was exceptionally high morale and wide- spread informality among participants; But very few of us were experienced high professional integrity; there was bureaucrats, at that time. We simply personal commitment -- personal identi- didn't know that it could not be done. fication with the program, its objectives So we went ahead and did it! APPENDIX

EFFORTS MADE TO SHARE DEVELOPMENTS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES AND TO GIVE THEM A SENSE OF PARTICIPATION IN THE PROGRAM

-a. Transmission of nephanalyses and This workshop was the precursor of other summaries on facsimile circuits in numerous workshops on varied meteoro- order to make information operationally logical satellite topics sponsored by useful at the earliest possible time. both the WMO and individual countries.

Fig. 16 contains two such nephanaly- -e. The initial TIROS camera system ses. Note that the one for 18292 con- operated in,both a direct and storage tains information from hitherto data mode. The direct mode provided only the sparse areas. local scenes and the storage mode pro- vided scenes taken during orbits since b. Arrangements were made with the last passage over a CDA station. As interested foreign countries to provide was mentioned earlier, nephanalyses of them with accurate information on satel- cloud patterns as analyzed by the lite overpass over their territory. In Weather Bureau were transmitted to this way, they could mount programs of foreign weather services. ad hoc ground-based observations for the study of special situations. This arrangement served well in the analysis of large extratropical storms C. On request, the provision was that persist for several days and in- madeof specific satellite data to fluence the weather over large areas. foreign research groups studying parti- However, for rapidly developing systems, cular weather situations. This sharing systems of shorter duration and lesser of data familiarized foreign scientists geographic extent, the elapsed time with satellite data, its utilization and between satellite passage and receipt potential for the future. This famili- of nephanalyses by local authorities arity was indispensable in the future proved to be too great. planning for GARP. The Automatic Picture Transmission The execution of the first three (APT) Subsystem initially developed activities was handled almost exclusively under the Nimbus program overcame this by the U.S. Weather Bureau working difficulty. Using a special slow scan through its representation in the World vidicon, this system transmitted con- Meteorological Organization (WMO). tinuously and reception of its signal was possible by any properly equipped d. By the summer of 1961, three TIROS rather inexpensive local station within satxlites had been successfully launched its line of sight. and their data was being incorporated by the Weather Bureau in the daily ana;lysis. On July 1, 1976, we had information NASA and the Weather Bureau organized an that APT stations existed in about 120 international workshop inviting partici- countries.(Fig. 18) The amount of pation by countries adhering to the WMO coverage possible at a given station to come and learn (through actual labora- is clearly illustrated here. However, tory exercises) how to handle the satel- since specifications for an APT station lite data and incorporate it into their have been widely distributed and con- operations. 37 representatives from 28 struction is rather straightforward countries attended this first satellite with readily available parts, there is workshop. Fig. 17 shows the participants really no way of knowing where and how in a laboratory exercise session. many APT stations exist.

13 f. By the middle of the 60's, the feature of this cooperative effort U.S.had organized a Meteorological was a program for co-located measure- Rocket Network (MRN) for the purpose of ments for the purpose of instrument making vertical soundings of the strato- data processing intercomparison. This sphere and mesosphere. Other countries was followed by a program of co-located recognized that the rocketsonde technol- measurements by airborne remote micro- ogy and launching procedures were in a wave instruments in a special Bering small way a stepping stone to the space Sea observation exercise in order to activity that might follow. Consequently, intercompare these instruments before as a result of a suggestion by Argentina, they were committed to space flight. a special rocketsonde observational pro- gram was set up in the Western Hemi- h. Other countries were also making sphere -- the Experimental Inter-American rap= strides in space activity. France Meteorological Rocket Network (EXAMETNET) . embarked on the development of an ambi- The participating stations are shown to tious space system for the interrogration the left of Fig. 19. Their north-south and location of instrumented platforms. orientation was for the purpose of mea- At the same time they developed a sophis- suring the variations in the stratosphere ticated constant level balloon system along a longitudinal transect. Countries capable of supporting a number of instru- participating directly in EXAMETNET were: ments for making in situ measurements. Argentina, Brazil, France and the U.S. Both of these developments were then Other countries having rocket launching incorporated in their first space venture, capabilities were attracted by the EOLE. We cooperated very closely with scientific and technological advantages the French in these developments. Then of EXAMETNET and became adjunct members finally the French system for interro- of the program. These included: Mexico, gating and locating remotely located Japan, Spain, India, Pakistan and instrumented platforms was incorporated Australia. A major feature of this into the U.S. Operational Meteorological cooperative effort was the exchange of Satellite System. Also, the UK sounder measurements and resulting analyses among of the upper atmosphere - the Mesospheric the participants and periodic meetings Sounding Unit (MSU), was developed with for the purpose of discussing these U.S. cooperation and support and is now measurements and results. a feature of our operational system.

g. In view of the demonstrated capa- 1. The reality of meteorological billy of both the U.S. and the Soviet satzlite systems which permitted the Union in conducting space activity, it viewing of the Earth and its atmosphere was recognized early by both sides that globally and continuously, made possible it would be to their mutual advantage to the planning and execution of the Global conduct bilateral discussions leading to Experiments under GARP. The U.S. joint space efforts. In March of 1963, Meteorological Satellite Program pro- the first such discussions were held in vided a good deal of the leadership as Rome. In the area of space meteorology, well as the technological base and the we established a data link between Moscow satellite technology essential to the and Washington across which operational implementation of the operational phase meteorological data was exchanged between of this program. the USSR Hydrometeorological Service and the U.S. Weather Bureau. Later, a co- j. The Committee on the Peaceful operative program in rocket observations Uses of Outer Space was the focus was established. The USSR set up a line within the U.N. for international dis- of meridional stations in the Eastern cussion, negotiation and agreement on Hemisphere (Fig. 19) in parallel to the international space activity. Again in EKAMETNET line in the Western Hemisphere. view of its successful execution, the In addition to periodic exchange of ob- U.S. Program details of progress was con- servations and results, another important tinuously made available to the Committee.

14 SOME CAUSES AND EFFECTS

October 4, 1957 : Sputnik I

October 1, 1958 : NASA established

April 13, 1959 : TIROS transferred from ARPA to NASA

April 1, 1960 : TIROS I launched

October 10, 1960 : POMS established

January, 1964 : National Operational Meteorological Satellite System (NOMSS) established

FIGURE 1 METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE LAUNCHES (1960 - 1969)

TIROS 1 April 1 ,196O

TIROS 2 November 23 ,196O

TIROS 3 July 12 ,196l

TIROS 4 February 8 ,1962

TIROS 5 June 19 ,1962

TIROS 6 September 18 ,1962

TIROS 7 June 19 ,1963

TIROS 8 December 21 ,1963

TIROS 9 January 22 ,1965

Nimbus 1 August 28 ,1964

Nimbus 2 May 15 ,1966

Nimbus B May 18 ,1968 -failed- Nimbus 3 April 14 ,1969

OPERATIONAL SATELLITES

OT-1 July 2 ,1965

ESSA 1 February 3 ,1966

ESSA 2 February 28 ,1966

ESSA 3 October 2 ,1966

ESSA 4 January 26 ,1967

ESSA 5 April 20 ,1967

ESSA 6 November 10 ,1967

ESSA 7 August 16 ,1968

ESSA 8 December 15 ,1968

ESSA 9 February 16 ,1969

FIGURE 2

16 Fig. 3. Composite photograph obtained from rocket while at altitudes between 80 and 101 miles. The pictures do not match exactly owing to varying angles of direction of the camera. (Courtesy U.S. Navy Dept.)

17 Fig. 4. Explorer VI photocell results - radiation reflected from cloud tops (April 15, 1959). Fig. 5. Launch of TIROS 1 (April 1, 1960)

19 Fig. 6. First TIROS 1 photographs, cloud cover over Northeastern U.S. and Canada. TIROSCLOUD PATTERNS

FIGURE 7. SMS-1 Visible image, June 30, 1975 (hurricane Amy (1 N. Mi. resolution) FIGURE 6. TEMPERATURES WEATBUDGET STRATOSPHERE TROPOPAUSE CLOUDTOPS REFLECI’EDSOLAR RADIATION SURFACEd$, RADIATIONFROM EARTH;ciATMospHERE

CiOUDS

/ WVERJYPE,MOTION CARBONDIOXIDE livq HEIGHI,LAiERS)RAwR THUNDERSTORMSpREC'p'TAT'DN FIGURE 9. APRIL 30. MAY l,lB?O

.- .

IMPORTANT CLIMATE RELATED PARAMETERS PROVIDED BY SATELLITE SYSTEMS

FIGURE 10. (Transferred from color to B&W) GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM THE FIRST GARP GLOBAL EXPERIMENT 1978 - 1979

USSR METEOSAT (ESA) 0’ LONGITUDE GMS (JAPAN)

GOES-2

FIGURE 11. U.S. METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE PROGRAM OBJECTIVES (1959 - 1969)

1. To develop and maintain support for the program

2. To solve difficult technological problems

3. To establish an operational system

4. To provide the space technology base for GARP

5. To share space developments and results with other countries, and to give them a sense of participation in the U.S. program

FIGURE 12. METEORO'LOG'l'CA'L'I‘NSTRUMENTAT'ION 'IS BASED,ON ATMOSPHER'IC PROPERTIES& CHARACTERISTICSIN THE VARIOUS SPECTRALREGIONS

-

NASA SF 65-1716 FIGURE 13. 10-26-65 COMPOPKNTSOFTHE CLBMATIC SYSTEM

CHANGES OF SOLAR RADIATION

SPACE

u ATMOSPHERE TERRESTRIAL RADIATION e H20, Np,02, C02.03 ETC. PRECIPITATION

ATMOSPHERE.LAND COUPLING ATMOSPHERE.ICE EVAPORATION .CE AA COUPLING ISHEETS ‘It “It SNOW Ii’ WIND STRESS

* CHANGES Of COUPLING OCEAN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION t . 1 EARTH CHANGES OF LAND FEATURES, I (-)RC)~pADU”-..--., F.rIIl, \,Cc.CTATlnhl“LULlrnll”l”. I ALBEDO, ETC. 1

FIGURE 1.4. NASA HO ER77-‘I378 (I) 1-13-77 To share space developments and results with other countries, and to give them a sense of participation in the U.S. program

0 Transmission of nephanalyses and other summaries

0 Notification of periods of satellite overfly

0 Provision of satellite data

0 International Meteorological Satellite Workshop (November 1961)

0 Automatic Picture Transmission System (APT)

0 Meteorolqgical rocket sounding (EXAMETNET)

0 U.S./U.S.S.R. bilateral activities

0 Foreign technology on board U.S. satellites

0 Support of GARP

0 Support of U.N. Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space

FIGURE 15.

INTERNATIONALMETEOROLOGICAL SATELLITEWORKSHOP WASHINGTON,D.C., NOV. 13-22,196l I

FIGURE 17. k AUTOMATS~TURE ~ANSMISS~N(APT) SITES LOCATED’INABOUT 120 COUNTIES

. *

L .

l APT SITES

FIGURE 18. USA - USSR EASTERN - WESTERN HEMISPHERE NETWORK r

/ KLNNEDY --G-!-L -3 . ..-4.l&. .--..--s-2y-A~+ -v ..4t, c; L. -+- f. SHE---- - L . .--CT-* .-4 w W-l-H-#-i-H. W I NATAL-i7

r’.-4-&4-&C u-4-l-w -- , -,J I

.

.I . ,.4--..+ . 1 . . . . I ‘. 1, . - --- __-. . .-- - - ..- .- , . . . ., ,,, ,. I , . ..I -. I . , . . w -. - I I. ..--...C..‘**.-I..‘.... &aan*..,.* FIGURE L9. DEVELOPMENT OF THE OPERATIONAL PROGRAM FOR SATELLITE METEOROLOGY

David S. Johnson, Former Assistant Administrator for Satellites, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.*

The current operational system is parameters than were possible from the complementary sum of two kinds of the geostationary satellites. We are satellites; the geostationary satellites now, however, moving to the ability which provide a nearly continuous view to obtain atmospheric soundings from of the middle and tropical latitudes of geostationary satellites; this new the Earth, and the polar satellites which capability may change our thinking give a view of the entire Earth. about satellite systems in the future. Geostationary satellites have the There are systems contributed by tremendous advantage of continuously several countries. The only gap in geo- monitoring a major portion of the stationary satellite coverage at the Earth's surface for tracking mesoscale present time is over the Indian Ocean. features, severe storms, etc. India is, however, planning to launch INSAT in 1982, which will fill this gap. Fig. 1 shows the coverage of the INSAT will be the only one of the five network of geostationary satellites in geostationary meteorological satellites existence now (when INSAT becomes not compatible with respect to some of operational). The solid circles are the services that the others provide. the imaging coverage and the dashed It will be a multi-purpose satellite, circles represent the communications since meteorology isn't its main objec- coverage. tive. It is primarily for television broadcast and telecommunications, but The advanced TIROS-N spacecraft an imager will be included onboard. It in polar orbit, the first of which may is being built by Ford, and will be be launched later this year, is simi- launched by NASA. We have indeed come a lar to the TIROS N series which has long way in achieving a system of such been flying since 1979. However, the great complexity through informal inter- body has been stretched to enable NASA national agreement, without treaties. It to fly scientific experiments in addi- was done with the same kind of coopera- tion to the operational sensors that tive effort that Morris Tepper described, NOAA uses. NOAA also is adding an by people who really wanted to see some- operational satellite instrument for thing happen and then made it happen. measuring ozone profiles, based on the one which was developed in the NIMBUS The geostationary satellites and program. NASA will fly the Earth- the polar satellites complement each Radiation Budget Experiment, and a other. The polar satellites cover the search and rescue experiment in co- entire Earth a few times a day. Each operation with a number of other satellite passes over the poles twice a countries. Thus, the one spacecraft day, and, because of their closer will have the capability to support proximity to the Earth, have provided operations and at the same time to more precise measurements of radiation carry on experimental work. This is

* Mr. Johnson's colleagues at the National Earth Satellite Service of NOAA provided much of the technical information upon which this paper is based.

34 very necessary in years of austerity. required to reduce the bias and the There is a wide variety of applications r.m.s. error, especially in the lower of the environmental satellite data in layers of the atmosphere where it is the civil sector; some examples follow. most important. Use of improved micro- wave temperature sensors appears to hold Images produced from the data ac- the greatest promise at this time. quired by the Advanced Very High Resolu- tion Radiometer (AVHRR) on the TIROS N On the current TIROS N series, series are used to produce ice analyses there is an instrument called ARGOS, for the Arctic and the Antarctic. In the provided by the French government, which absence of clouds, the infrared channels relays data from and locates platforms. of the AVHRR are used to look at the sea- During the First GARP Global Experiment surface. The images can be enhanced by (FGGE), this system was used to track a minicomputer to provide higher temper- several hundred buoys that were drifting ature contrast of the sea-surface being in the Southern Hemisphere. Sensor data analyzed, for example, in the Gulf Stream. were relayed via the satellite for The very large eddies that develop along central processing and distribution. the shear zone of the Gulf Stream are This system has been working fine since clearly visible. Routine analyses of the first launch of TIROS-N in 1979, and these images are now produced and trans- locates platforms with an r.m.s. error mitted by facsimile or in coded messages of less than 1 km. to marine interests. This information is of considerable importance to shipping; Let us turn now to the geostation- also fishing; I am sure that it has ary satellites, the U.S. version of military applications as well. which is called the Geostationary Opera- tional Environmental Satellite (GOES). Quantitative values of sea-surface The satellite contains a large aperture temperature for the entire globe are also telescope (40 cm) for imaging; and the derived by objective techniques from the latest versions also have infrared AVHRR data. A new computational system sounding capability. The rotation of was introduced operationally in November, the satellite around its spin-axis 1981 which has resulted in a significant generates the East-West scan, while a improvement in the quality of the sea- tilting mirror provides the North-South surface temperature derivations. Compar- scan. Under normal operation, the ison of the new satellite temperatures Earth is viewed once every thirty with 74 observations from buoys and minutes in both the visible and the research ships showed a bias of 0.02O and infrared. The frequency of observations an r.m.s. deviation of 0.58. The December can be increased to every three minutes results are equally good, including a few (the fastest we have been using) but comparisons with buoy data in the then the extent of North-South scan must Southern Hemisphere. The reduction in be sacrificed. bias is a major step forward. Fig. 2 is a particularly dramatic There has been a continuous improve- image illustrating the primary function ment in quantitative data derived from of GOES -- monitoring severe weather satellite observations -- nothing parti- events. This image of severe thunder- cularly dramatic -- but a stepwise pro- storms conveys the quality of today's gression to the point where there is a images in terms of dynamic range and real impact on the quality of numerical resolution. As Morris Tepper mentioned, weather predictions. For example, a new it is hard now to imagine why we were so algorithm for correcting for cloud cover ecstatic about that first picture from contamination in the infrared temperature TIROS 1. But that was the beginning; we sounder data introduced in 1980 has re- have come a long way in a short time. sulted in significant improvement in the temperature accuracy in the lower layers I'd like to stress something that of the atmosphere. More improvement is we tend to forget. All this technology

35 isn't worth much unless the information essentially 850 millibars and upper gets to somebody who can use it. The levels, generally 200-300 millibars. operational character of the current The question, of course, is: How system must be stressed; it has led to good are they? Fig. 3 is a plot for the response that has developed in the winds, derived by NESS, showing the last twenty years in the acceptance of vector difference between observations many of these data by the operational derived from the cloud motions and meteorologist, as well as the research radio wind observations. worker. Part of this acceptance has resulted from a major effort to improve Notice the larger difference in the dissemination of information. But the high cloud winds. This is pri- there is a long way to go and major marily due to the inability to deter- improvements will be expensive. For mine the altitude of the clouds example, let's say it costs $100,000 for accurately; any vertical shear will be an interactive display device, which reflected in an error in the derived obviously every weather office should winds. Those who use winds derived have. The National Weather Service has from data from geostationary satellites 52 forecast offices and around 250 weather of different nations should realize service offices. Multiplying $100,000 that different procedures result in each by about 300 locations, gives different error characteristics. For $30,000,000, a very large capital invest- example, the Japanese technique is ment; which must be followed by signifi- different from that of Europe and the cant sums for maintenance and operation. U.S. The Japanese results indicate much larger errors in the upper level A major concern is to get the end winds. Even so, the winds have become product of the satellite system out to a very useful input to numerical pre- the user. NESS now uses a "sectorizer" dictions, and are now used in a very system, as it's called, located at Suit- routine manner. land, to process images and transmit them to the 52 forecast offices every half an Sequences of images from the hour. Within 20 minutes after each geostationary satellite in the thermal satellite image is received by NESS, infrared also can be used to estimate selected images (more than twenty can be the amount of convective precipitation. selected by dial-up telephone) go out Flash flooding is a very major problem. from Suitland to the forecast office Because of early success with this through the Satellite Field Service Sta- technique, NESS now is supporting the tions. The latter are advisory-consul- Weather Service by making this kind of tant units of NESS at seven locations precipitation estimate whenever flash which assist the forecasters in the field. flooding potential is high. With the There is a long way to go, but the steps introduction of a new interactive pro- already taken toward immediate dissemi- cessing system, it is planned to nation of satellite information have expand this service by the end of 1982. accomplished more than anything else to make this new technology useful to the Another application in Florida uses forecasters. geostationary satellite infrared images on clear nights when there is strong As Morris predicted, geostationary radiative cooling, to improve frost warn- satellite images can be used to track ings. Computer processing emphasizes the clouds from which the winds at cloud O°C line so that pockets of surface air -- altitude can be inferred. This is some- warmer and colder than freezing -- can be thing Professor Verner Suomi and his readily identified by the Weather Service colleagues developed. This kind of office near Tampa to assist the agricul- information is produced for two levels: tural industry in protecting citrus crops.

36 There is a problem with the polar 6.7 m band. These now are being pro- orbiting satellite data in filtering out duced on an operational basis twice a cloudy areas to determine sea-surface day. In the sounding mode, temperature temperatures by infrared techniques. changes over a period of a few hours However, with the GOES, a new infrared can be monitored. One can operate image is obtained every thirty minutes, through breaks in the clouds, because 24 hours a day. Unless there is a very of the very high resolution of the persistent, solid overcast area, the sensor. The combination of high movement of breaks in the cloud cover spatial and temporal resolution pro- will enable the sea-surface temperature vides soundings not otherwise obtainable to be determined at some time during each with the polar satellite or the radio- 24 hour period. An automated process has sonde network. This new tool may prove been introduced by NESS for the U.S. con- to be extremely important in studying tinental shelf areas, in which the sea- and forecasting mesoscale phenomena. surface temperature is updated frequently and stored on a computer disk file in Suitland, which is available for output Comment: on a remote terminal by a dial-up system. The VAS data is available every Now there is a new instrument in three hours each Thursday on the East space on GOES called the "VAS", or VISSR Satellite, and every Tuesday on the Atmospheric Sounder, which again comes West Satellite, starting at 02302 from Professor Suomi's fertile mind. Thursdays, all the way up to 11302, and that program has been extended up There are three basic modes of to the 31st of January, 1982. operation of the VAS. There is the normal operational imaging mode, in use since 1974, which has a visible channel Johnson: with 1 km resolution, and a thermal infrared window (11 1~m) channel with 8 km There will be another program resolution. The multispectral imaging starting during 1982 to make more VAS mode provides the full resolution visible data available for research. It's channel plus any three of the 11 infrared having to be done on a non-conflict channels (IR windows, plus CO2 and water basis. NESS is installing some addi- vapor bands). The third mode is the tional equipment that will allow a 'fair sounding mode, in which all of the amount of VAS data to flow. This is infrared channels are used. To obtain not an operational program, but it will the signal-to-noise ratio needed to allow for more experimental development. derive quality soundings, repetitive scanning of the same area is used in the sounding mode, compared to the single Dutton: scan of each area used in the two imaging modes. This limits the north- Would you say something about the south area from which soundings can be distribution of errors in the winds? derived, or the frequency of observa- tion. If soundings are desired once an Is it skewed? Peaked? hour, coverage is limited to about a twenty degree latitude, zone. Flexi- What do we know about it? bility in modes, frequency, and extent of coverage is available by ground command. Johnson:

Most dramatic are images showing I don't know, but the data are moisture patterns as observed in the available from NESS.

37

i i i Ii iliiIi IiiIii ilil iii HI IiiiH 0” 20” 60” loo0 140”

4o”

-- METEOSAT GOES WEST I I, A I II ”

4o”

72a 0” 2o” 60’ 100” 140” 140” I I I I 00 74OE 140°E l35OW LONGITUDE

Figure 1. Imaging and communications coverage of the global network of meteorological satellites as of early 1982. Figure 2. Full resolution visible image from a Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite showing several severe thunderstorms over the midwestern United States on 31 May 1976. Note shadows of penetrating convective towers which are cast on the surrounding cirrus shields. b RMS Vector Difference (GOES - RAWIN) I

79/Smr. 80/Wntr. 80/Sm r. 8VWn tr. 8VSmr. 82/Wn tr.

Year/Season

Figure 3. RMS vector difference between winds measured by radio-wind techniques and those inferred from cloud displacements measured in sequences of images acquired by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOFS). MILITARY APPLICATIONS EVOLUTION AND FUTURE

Brig. Gen. Albert J. Kaehn, Jr., Commander Air Weather Service, Scott AFB, Illinois

In this presentation I would like to conflict, global environment data to give you some of my thoughts on the mili- support worldwide DOD operations. This tary applications of METSAT data and, in mission demands at least two opera- particular, on the evolution of AWS's use tional spacecraft in orbit at all of the Department of Defense METSAT, the times, with the sensor complement and polar-orbiting Defense Meteorological orbit times selected to provide the Satellite Program (DMSP) , originally maximum environmental support to known as Data Acquisition and Processing military decisionmakers. Program (DAPP). The DMSP history has been one of I will focus on our METSAT use at constant evolution. The system was Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC), originally conceived and designed in our centralized facility, and by our the 1960's to satisfy important, scien- field units deployed around the world. tific military requirements. The early In addition, I'll point out some examples vehicles carried videcon cameras pro- of the DOD mission payoffs the DMSP has viding only IR and visual cloud imagery. provided in the past, and some of our Since its inception, a cornerstone DMSP ideas for future DMSP enhancements. requirement was to put data in the hands of the military decisionmakers as The primary mission of AWS is to soon as possible. Therefore, DMSP was support Air Force and Army combat opera- configured to provide data in two ways: tions. Important keys to successful the recorded and direct readout data combat operations include target detec- modes. tion, identification, tracking, and destruction. In modern warfare, the In the recorded data mode, data presence or absence of clouds directly are recorded aboard the spacecraft and impacts the ability to successfully and downlinked to readout sites at Loring economically perform these missions, and AFB, Maine, and Fairchild AFB, Washing- with the recent development of extremely ton. In the earlier days, the data expensive cloud-sensitive weapons systems were passed to the Air Force Global (such as TV, IR and laser-guided bombs Weather Central (AFGWC) at Offutt AFB, and missiles), the accuracy of cloud Nebraska, by landlines. Today, they information assumes an even greater role. are passed by a communications satel- lite. In recent years, the system has AWS uses all available data to included a comsat downlink to Fleet satisfy mission requirements. Peacetime Numerical Oceanography Center in cloud data sources include the Defense Monterey, California, and an additional Meteorological Satellite Program, NOAA readout site at Kaena Point, Hawaii. Polar and Geostationary Satellites, Worldwide Surface and Upper Air Data, and Though the routing of the recorded That vehicle carried a tropospheric In the next few minutes, I will temperature sounder and a precipitating amplify on the use of recorded and electron spectrometer. The first Opera- direct readout DMSP data by the Air tional Linescan System (OLS), a vastly Force. Recorded DMSP data received at improved system for cloud sensing, was AFGWC results in documented savings of flown in September of 1976. hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Recorded data are used to support world- The initial transportable terminals, wide operations such as the Rapid Deploy- using the direct readout data, supported ment Joint Task Force, hurricane/typhoon Air Force and Army commanders around the positioning, aerial refueling and the world. The Navy came on board with their Strategic Air Command aircraft reconnais- requirement for direct readout data in sance missions. Direct readout data are 1971, installing their first shipboard used by meteorologists in forward areas capability on the USS Constellation. to support battlefield commanders con- ducting combat operations. Critical to The DMSP antennas were located mid- the effectiveness of both capabilities, ship below and on either side of the especially recorded data, is spacecraft flight deck. In two separate incidents command and control. ('72 and early '73), aircraft (an A-7 and an F-4) broke the arresting cable on To meet rigid operational support landing. The cable wrapped around the timelines, command and control must be DMSP antenna, destroying it in each case, responsive. Therefore, the spacecraft and the barrier held. Therefore, DMSP ground command and control system is (Weather) could be considered to have co-located with the AFGWC. If we need saved two aircraft. DMSP data that are not normally collected to satisfy a short-notice requirement, Today, direct readout data continue new software commands can be generated to provide direct cloud imagery support and implemented within 6 hours through to Army and Air Force field commanders the control readout sites. and Navy operations afloat. DMSP con- tinues to grow and change to meet DOD Military requirements for forecasts requirements. Unique capabilities are: of icing, turbulence, severe weather, DOD command and control unconstrained by fields of small cell cumulus and snow/ external agreements, the capability of cloud discrimination, demand immediate encrypted communications into combat manual application of high-quality 0.3 zones, orbits and sensors specifically and 1.5 nm resolution visual and IR selected to satisfy DOD requirements, imagery data. These data are displayed flexibility to alter coverage to respond on "hard copy" transparencies for use to rapidly changing DOD support needs, by forecasters at AFGWC. (After the and a system designed to minimize delay data are no longer operationally useful in readout of critical recorded data. the transparencies are archived at the University of Wisconsin for public use.) In addition, today's DMSP possesses At the same time, the data flow into a other characteristics extremely valuable completely automated processing system. to AWS: Its constant cross-scan high resolution imaging is valuable for snow/ The telemetry data are split off cloud discrimination and "black stratus" for command and control purposes. analysis. Its low light nighttime capa- Atmospheric and space environmental data bility is valuable in determining the are stripped out and processed by sensor- magnitude and extent of the aurora1 oval. unique software. Temperature sounder data Finally, it has a full complement of are currently used globally in the strato- ionospheric sensors critical to many DOD sphere as well as in the troposphere; both systems operating in or through the near- in the Southern Hemisphere and data-sparse Earth environment. ocean areas in the Northern Hemisphere.

42 Unique space environmental data are 25 run resolution three-dimensional cloud provided by the precipitating electron analysis. Data covering high priority spectrometer, the plasma monitor, and the areas are analyzed immediately upon visual cloud sensor. The visual data and receipt, while the normal global the electron spectrometer locate the analysis is accomplished every three aurora1 oval -- important to forecasts hours. The process is totally automated for high frequency radio communications with the exception that analysis in in polar regions, and to the high lati- high priority areas can be manually tude early warning and tracking radar modified if needed. We have now begun network in North America and Europe. The work to develop a real-time cloud analy- plasma monitor provides in situ. electron sis model that will analyze all satel- densities -- essential to space system lite data immediately upon receipt. ephemeris calculations and anomaly in- Thus the real-time analysis will always vestigations as well as transionospheric include the most current satellite data. propagation for the Space Detection and Tracking System. The cloud analysis initializes the final step in the process -- the auto- Visual and IR imagery are mapped mated cloud forecast model. It is pro- into a satellite global data base, a cessed every three hours and forecasts digital data base with a 3 nm resolution. cloud cover and precipitation out to 48 This data base is constantly updated by hours in the Northern Hemisphere and 24 continuous on-line processing of the hours in the Southern Hemisphere. imagery and is available in visual and IR display for both hemispheres. As you can see, recorded data are used today at AFGWC in a complex system Under the shared METSAT data con- relying on a considerable amount of cept , the satellite global data base is computer hardware and software. Yet, planned to be provided to NOAA, NESS and the system is extremely reliable. Over FNOC. We apply the automated data base 95% of the DMSP data are routinely pro- in three ways: cessed through the system and are used in the forecast models. Not only do 1. High quality displays are sent by units in the field receive analysis and digital facsimile to Air Force forecast products from AFGWC to support command and control centers. The tactical requirements, but they also data are also relayed to a myriad have access to DMSP direct readout data. of other government agencies. The DMSP direct readout data capa- 2. Displays are used as large over- bility satisfies DOD requirements for lays for forecast applications worldwide, responsive, secure, high within AFGWC. resolution METSAT information. The system is complete and self-sufficient, 3. The third application is unique and the transportable terminals have to AWS. AFGWC is a pioneer in their own power supply and data pro- using computers to blend satellite cessing capability. In this mode, DMSP data with other data and build provides timely visual and infrared automated cloud analyses which, in imagery directly to transportable ter- turn, are used to initialize minals co-located with battlefield automated cloud forecasts. commanders.

The automated cloud analysis model Through these few examples: the integrates the visual and IR imagery, support of critical decisions in remote sensed temperature soundings and Vietnam; support to U.S. forces in conventional observations, to create a data-denied areas such as Israel; the

43 support to Europe where weather data will the 7th AF planners from the DMSP be used as a weapons multiplier: support tactical terminal at Saigon were of U.S. readiness forces such as REDCOM crucial in identifying the best and TAC; and support of U.S. resource weather window possible to achieve protection efforts in the Pacific... I the precision timing necessary for plan to show how we've used the DMSP in this mission, while maintaining the the past and how we're currently using it. secrecy necessary in such a sensitive military operation. General Momyer, AF Commander in Vietnam, relating his experience with the Global war is not necessary to DMSP system said, "AS far as I'm con- affect the free exchange of meteoro- cerned, this (DMSP) weather picture is logical data among nations. Increased probably the greatest innovation of the local tensions between two or more war." In his book, while discussing the nations can cut the flow of necessary scheduling, targeting and launching of weather data. During the Yom Kippur strike missions against North Vietnam, War all nations in the area of conflict he went on to say that, "Without them stopped transmission of standard meteor- (meaning the DMSP photos)... many missions ological data over civil communications would not have been launched." circuits -- despite international agreements to the contrary -- because The responsiveness of the DMSP to weather data could possibly aid the military requirements was first demon- opposition commanders in making military strated during the early stages of decisions. Early in the U.S. resupply Vietnam when a satellite was launched to effort of Israel, Lad Airport at Tel support our bombing missions. AF com- Aviv was closed due to heavy fog and manders in Vietnam making go/no-go de- stratus and our resupply flow was dis- cisions affecting strike missions used rupted. Weather data from the DMSP DMSP because it is a complete system with enabled us to determine that the a tactical readout capability. The weather pattern was frontal in nature tactical, or direct readout terminal, and to accurately predict clearing, located in Saigon, provided processed, ensuring earliest possible completion analyzed pictures of the weather in the of the vital airlift during the initial various target areas in a matter of phases of the war. During a European minutes after being observed. This in- war, our enemies will almost certainly formation was used to update and adjust stop transmitting weather data. In strike targets and the life sustaining addition, our allies may stop trans- refueling areas based on the current mitting weather data because of its weather observed by the DMSP. usefulness to Warsaw Pact countries, and the encrypted DMSP data available In late 1970, very specific weather at tactical terminals in Europe may be was required to support the mission to the only weather data our European extract U.S. prisoners of war from a forces have to use. During August of North Vietnamese prison camp. This 1979, we used DMSP to support opera- mission, the Son Tay Prison Raid, was tions in Nicaragua from the tactical scheduled to coincide with the break in terminal at Howard AFB, in Panama, weather between two tropical storms. when conventional data were not avail- Conventional weather data were denied able in Nicaragua during the overthrow and an aerial weathes reconnaissance of the Somoza Regime. flight might tip off the operation. The need for secrecy and for limiting the The U.S. Readiness Command's number of people who knew of our interest mission requires short notice deploy- in the weather near Son Tay was satis- ment of a joint task force to virtually fied by the operational secrecy available any area of the world. High resolution with the DMSP. The DMSP data provided to satellite data, responsive to the

44 deployed military commander, are often density monitor for detailed profiles the sole source of weather data in a of electron density. The microwave contingency area where data are either imager will allow us to recover aerial sparse or denied. In support of U.S. extent and rates of precipitation over commitments to NATO, the U.S. regularly the globe. We envision that these data deploys tactical fighter squadrons from will give us an improved cloud analysis U.S. bases to designated allied airfields capability, and over data-denied areas, in Europe. Decisions to launch, delay or will, when combined with knowledge of change refueling areas, not only for the \ the terrain, provide improved traffica- fighter aircraft but also for the tanker bility forecasts for army commanders. aircraft needed for refueling, are often This will allow commanders to more made based solely on the high resolution effectively employ their heavy tanks, data available from the DMSP. trucks, and artillery pieces in their overall strategy. Finally, increased A DMSP tactical terminal, as well as system survivability and reliability recorded data from AFGWC, provides cover- will increase the DMSP utility at the age necessary for the Air Force weather Air Force Global Weather Central. We satellite support to the Joint Typhoon plan to improve the automated imagery- Warning Center (JTWC) located at Guam in processing system by installing inter- the Pacific. JTWC provides typhoon active and softcopy display consoles to warnings and accurate fixes of storm increase data base accessibility and positions, and also provides DOD with reduce critical processing timeliness. resource-protection warnings necessary in Also, the cloud analysis model is being this predominantly data-sparse area. In improved so that incoming data will up- 1978 and 1979, more than half of the date the analysis continuously. There- JTWC's warnings in the Western Pacific fore, cloud forecasts can be run at any were based on satellite positions of time using the latest data available. tropical cyclones. In the Indian Ocean, where aircraft and land-based radar were AF is currently deploying an im- not available, over 95% of the JTWC's proved direct readout terminal for warnings were based on satellite fixes. tactical use. The Mark IV is a totally This information, required by military self-sufficient tactical terminal, commanders throughout the Pacific, is transportable on C-130 type aircraft, also made available to civil and inter- as opposed to the larger C-5 sized air- national agencies. craft needed to airlift our current tactical terminal. The examples I've just discussed highlight the extensive use of DMSP by In the future, multiple sensor Air Weather Service. Limited military data, such as microwave imagery and resources and continued tensions world- atmospheric sounder data, are planned wide call for increased responsiveness to be included in the direct readout of the DMSP system. In addition, com- mode. These data will increase the manders using more complex, sophisticated capability of the battlefield meteor- weapons systems which are highly sensi- ologist to provide the tactical com- tive to environmental factors dictate mander with critical support information the further exploitation and expansion when conventional weather data are of the DMSP. To meet these growing denied. In addition, .we plan to include operational support requirements during a data processing capability in the the 1980's, we have programmed additional future tactical van. This system will capabilities for the DMSP. be able to provide instantaneous up- dates on the weather to the tactical The space environment mission will commanders' automated systems. The be strengthened with the addition of both commanders will then be able to make a topside ionosonde and a refined plasma immediate changes to targets or tactics,

45 maximizing the potential of their auto- Kaehn: mated command and control systems. In the Air Force we have a rather The DMSP, a system responsive to extensive historical program. If we military requirements, has grown consi- knew exactly how far you wanted to go derably during the past decade. The back, we could find the people and the close interaction among the weatherman right information for you. at the tactical readout terminal directly supporting the tactical commander, the Air Force Global Weather Central, build- Kellogg: ing and applying its worldwide data base, and dedicated command and control of the I want to first remind the audience on-orbit DMSP satellites has provided a of the.cover of the Bulletin of the AMS finely tuned military system capable of that showed a nighttime picture of the responding to national security require- U.S. from the Air Weather Service that ments. In short, military METSAT appli- was taken by the very sensitive camera cations have proven to be a vital source that was mentioned. You mentioned that of data for AWS's support to national the Defense Meteorological Satellite defense, and will continue to evolve to Program shares its data with our own meet the changing needs of military Weather Service. Do you also share decisionmakers. this data with other countries -- Japan, Europe, elsewhere? Is it fed into the Global Meteorological Network which is a WMO function? Atlas:

We keep hearing about measuring Kaehn: precipitation from space, and I still have my doubts about the use of the SSMI It is made available at the or any other microwave radiometer to do University of Wisconsin and anybody this. What do you think? who wants it can get it from there. We don't feed it to the network.

Kaehn: Kellogg: Well, I do think that it offers a way with some potential. There is a The Global Telecommunications problem, but there appears to be poten- Network carries meteorological satellite tial. This appears to offer one of the information as well as conventional most promising ways to obtain the infor- meteorological information for other mation. If you ask me to forecast the countries, and I wondered if DMSP data degree of success -- I would be presump- is included. tuous if I attempted a definite predic- t!on. But we're working on the problem as hard as we can. It is data that we Kaehn: have got to have. No.

Ludwig:

In the context of the first half Phillips: the morning's discussion, I notice a hole in the early history of the DOD Meteoro- Why don't you do that? logical Satellite Program. IS there some prospect that this rich early history might be filled out by including the DOD portion at some time?

46 Kaehn: isn't there. Emphasis is on quantitative data -- winds and temperatures. Those It is just a question of cost. Who are produced by NESS and are available would pay for it? We do make use of the on the GTS. There have been arrangements data provided by the civilian meteoro- made with respect to some of the tactical logical satellite network, and conversely, sites to meet certain specialized data we provide data in cases where it is requirements as mutually agreed to be- needed. There is a close cooperation. tween the Air Weather Service and NESS. There is a shared METSAT data initiative Data is made available in certain cir- that we are doing now, where we analyze cumstances where it makes a very signi- the clouds, NESS will do the temperature ficant contribution beyond those data soundings, and the Navy will look at the that would otherwise be available through sea-surface temperatures. We will show the civil systems. It is done on a the federal community that we can share special case-by-case basis, however, not the data and do these three analyses routinely. separately -- but it all takes money.

--Johnson: Kaehn: With respect to the Global Tele- Another point is that we need to communications System (GTS), practically look at different parts of the world on no image data is sent. The capacity just different days.

47

III IIII I I III IllIIIIIIllIIlllllllllllllllllllIllIIllllllllllll KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS AND THE

ROLE OF SATELLITES

Eugene W. Bierly, Director, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, National Science Foundation

Traditionally, NSF has not strongly 1979 monsoon, but I will describe it. supported activities in the satellite On the 14th of June, a vortex began area. In fact, when I first came to NSF to develop in the eastern part of the some fifteen years ago, we purposely did Arabian Sea and then moved off to the not support research that dealt with west. At the same time, the flow in- satellites. We transferred those pro- tensified. That was the onset of the posals to NASA and what is now NOAA/NESS. monsoon of 1979. The film shows the Then GARP, the Global Atmospheric whole evolution of this flow, and, of Research Program, came along, and the course, the onset of rains around the situation changed. It is still true, 18th of June over central India is though, that much of the expertise very important. The circulation just resides in NASA and NOAA and scientists prior to this period was characterized which they support. by an explosive development of this tropical storm called the onset vortex. I have chosen to look at some of the The storm moved westward, bringing in, research opportunities that are currently to the north and to the west, strong available from geostationary satellite moist westerlies with it and thus the data, especially from MONEX during the monsoon began. Global Weather Experiment; to look at the cloud configurations that are now known In most years the Indian monsoon as Mesoscale Convective Complexes; to say is accompanied by the formation of an something about the International Cloud intense vortex like this one of 1979. Climatology Program; and finally to look Detailed examination of the onset vortex at some of the data that oceanographers and the commencement of heavy monsoon need that are derived from satellite data rains over central India has revealed on ocean winds. that the kinetic energy of the winds over the Arabian Sea increases ten-fold During the Global Weather Experiment, about one week prior to the occurrence the U.S. moved a geostationary satellite of the rains. Krishnamurti calculated over the Indian Ocean to fill the posi- the day-by-day changes of atmospheric tion that the Russian satellite did not kinetic energy, which is a measure of occupy. You have already seen several the wind speed. It was expected that diagrams of the coverage. Fig. 1, taken the winds would increase over the from T.N. Krishnamurti's 1979 Atlas, shows Arabian Sea prior to the rains, but a fully developed monsoon circulation on the sharp and intense increase that 27 June 1979 at 850 mbars. Data on this occurred one week before the rains map come from various sources: dropwind- began was unexpected. Remember that sondes, constant level balloons, ships was for 1979. Now we may have an ele- and rawinsondes, but over the Indian ment that could be used as a predictor Ocean and the Arabian Sea, almost all of for the monsoon onset about a week in the data are from satellite derived advance. That would be quite important winds. About 99% are from that source. to the people in that part of the world.

I will not have time to show a film Satellite cloud vectors are also that I have on the development of the used to initialize and verify model

48 simulations. These same data provided the world to organize on the mesoscale the inspiration for an attempt to predict and yet there is a serious deficiency the life-cycle of the Arabian Sea cyclone in understanding the fundamental factors and its impact on monsoon onset and the that govern this organization. With the attendant rainfall. Again, predictions availability of detailed infrared were based on a model designed by T. N. imagery from geostationary satellites, Krishnamurti. The work was accomplished studies have been made, this being one by Dr. Ramanathan, a visiting scientist of them, where a previously unrecognized from India. The rainfall predicted up to large organized mesoscale convective five days in advance bore a close resem- weather system has been identified. blance to the actual distribution of rain These are now called Mesoscale Convec- along the west coast of India. The po- tive Complexes. (See Fig. 4.) These tential societal and economic impact on systems seem to be generated when a India of useful rain predictions is number of individual thunderstorms are staggering. formed in a region which is favorable for convection. Regional modification That these wind fields are now being of the environment takes place, which used to study the monsoon in some detail subsequently allows the organization of is gratifying. I am sure we are going to large mesoscale systems. This is shown see a great deal more work done in this in the next series of Figures. Fig. 5a area. After all, the data have just be- at 00302, shows the beginning of some come available from MONEX. The next five convective activity. Fig. Sb, 3f hours years will see an explosive development later, indicates the broadening of this of research associated with this work. activity. Finally, another 4 hours later, Fig. SC, the coming together of Another result that comes from these very large systems, has been identified cloud-derived wind fields is shown in from the satellite images. The MCC is Fig. 2. It is the average of the July important because it is the dominant 1979 satellite winds averaged from daily weather system that produces precipita- values at 900 mb. It was done by John tion and severe weather (tornadoes, Young and his group from the University floods, and so forth) during the grow- of Wisconsin. These data compare favor- ing season over the central U.S. Since ably with those of Findlater. Wind they are organized in a distinctly non- fields, such as the one shown in the randum manner, on scales that are first figure, can be used to calculate definitely not subgrid in nature, they other fields such as vorticity, shown in really had not been seen until satellite Fig. 3a, and also the geopotential field, observation made them apparent. Now it shown in Fig. 3b. The geopotential field is very important that we begin to has been computed using the equations of utilize this information and get it motion with parameterized friction. The into the operational forecast system. results compare favorably with Hasten- That is the work that is being done at rath's 70-year climatology of mean sur- ERL. It is very important that we face pressure in the region. Thus, the understand the system, that we under- satellite wind fields become the grist stand the physics of the system. Once for research in several important areas. we understand the life cycle, the meteor- ological characteristics -- the up and The next area that I would like to down scale environmental interactions -- say a few words about is that of Meso- we may be able to parameterize them into scale Convective Complexes. This is the large scale models. As mesoscale pro- work basically of Maddox and Frisch of cesses are studied more and more, we will NOAA's Environmental Research Labora- continue to hear more about these things. tories (ERL). It is based on Maddox's dissertation from CSU. There is a com- The third area I would like to mon tendency for clouds in all parts of touch on briefly is called the Interna-

49 tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Pro- grade our climate models. We will ject. (See Fig. 6 for details.) In 1974, have to do a lot of analyses, monitoring the Joint Organizing Committee for GARP and making use of the data we already (JCC) study pointed out two major have for testing purposes. Fig. 8 indi- stumbling blocks likely to limit progress cates what the data.requirements are. in climate modeling. One is an under- Fig. 9 shows the coverage of the five standing of cloud radiation and the other geostationary satellites. Fig. 10 is a is an understanding of ocean processes. time table. Note that India expects to When the World Climate Research Program launch its satellite in May or April of was developed, these two areas -- the 1982. When that satellite goes up, there effect of clouds on radiation budget of will be coverage from five geostationary the climate and on ocean processes -- were satellites. The Chinese also have plans again identified as major stumbling to launch a satellite over the Indian blocks. In 1980, at the first session of Ocean. the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), which is the overall guiding committee The data processing is a tremen- for the World Climate Research Program, dously large job. Fig. 11 gives some the importance of cloudiness and radiation idea of who the interested parties are related to the World Climate Research that would be involved in such an Program were restated. These include: activity. You can see that there is a the sensitivity of climate to cloud good distribution of countries and of radiation feedback, the prediction pro- institutions around the world that are blem of cloud generation in climate interested. The types of data needed models, empirical studies of the in- for this project are summarized in fluence of clouds on climate, and the Fig. 12. establishment of an adequate cloud climatology. The major questions con- Fig. 13 is the summary of the cerning clouds and climate are simply importance of clouds to climate pre- stated: . . . "Will changes in cloudiness diction - why we really need this in- cause changes in climate?" and "Will formation. Let me just emphasize: the changes in climate cause changes in understanding of the role of clouds in cloudiness?" People have ideas, but the climate and the proper representation answers to these questions are not in. of cloud radiation feedback in modex is of primary importance in climate An International Satellite Cloud prediction. That is really why we are Climatology Project (ISCCP) has been involved. Fig. 14 asks, "Why wait 9 proposed for the period 1983 to 1987, years and why now?" It turns out that whose goal is to acquire a global data we did have some global coverage during set of reduced radiances and cloudiness the Global Weather Experiment, but it parameters of manageable proportions for has lapsed. Because of some new com- a period of about five years. The puters and other hardware, now is a quantity of data is potentially staqqer- good time. The interest of the com- ing, but that problem is being worked on munity is beginning to peak again in and, hopefully, will be under control. this particular area. Another important Figs. 7a and 7b describe the program. consideration is that a mechanism, the In 1983, we intend to begin to collect World Climate Research Program, now satellite radiance data from U.S. satel- exists and is the vehicle by which such lites and to accelerate our national a project can be carried out. research. Tests using the FGGE data that already exists will be run to deter- The last area that I want to dis- mine methods to get cloud information cuss is one that deals more with ocean- from radiances and to develop data ography than with meteorology. We must handling schemes. The required global keep in mind that meteorological satel- cloud climatology data will involve an lites provide the data. In the summer understanding of the interdependence of of 1978, NASA launched SEASAT, which clouds and climate. We will have to up- was equipped with several experimental

50 instruments. This satellite operated for ing calculations. It has been ob- one hundred days over fifteen hundred served that the strength and the orbits. One of the major instruments on position of currents such.as the Gulf board was a scatterometer -- a radar in- Stream vary throughout the year. The strument capable of producing estimates Gulf Stream meanders; it creates rings of wind speed and direction in an ocean and eddies, and we do not know what patch about 50 km on a side. Some of the all that means. We are trying to data from SEASAT have been examined care- model the Atlantic Ocean, To do so, fully by oceanographers and meteorolo- we have to know what is going on gists. There is cautious agreement that physically before we can ever be the scatterometer is capable of measuring successful. There is no doubt that wind speeds in many weather situations to data such as was obtained by SEASAT within 2 meters per set (approximately 5 will be very useful in modeling and miles per hour). This scatterometer, understanding the physical mechanisms. mounted on an orbiting spacecraft, is capable of providing surface wind speed The El Nizo is another area of and direction below its path as it moves interest to many people in this room, around the Earth. If the orbit were ad- and especially to many oceanographers. justed to altitudes of about 2400 km, the If our present ideas are correct, we satellite could cover the entire globe should be able to make predictions of within a few days. This would be the an El Ni'no from scatterometer-type first time in our history that we would instruments by measuring winds over the have global coverage of the oceans, with Western Pacific along the equator. The new wind estimates over the oceans every appearance of strong westerly winds in week or so. Such information could be the trigger region may allow us to used in a variety of ocean models to de- forecast an impending El Ni'no. termine ocean surface currents on many space and time scales. Oceanographers Using infrared sea-surface temper- would then be able to estimate the dis- ature measurements, we should be able tribution of ocean currents over the en- to measure from space the development tire ocean area on a day-to-day basis, of warm anomalies along the coast. something they never had before. Meteorologists and oceanographers believe that the Indian Ocean heat content may Fig. 15 shows one of the results be a factor in the behavior of the mon- from SEASAT. Data from the scatterometer soon. Furthermore, the distribution of wind measurements give us the wind vec- the heat in the Indian Ocean is deter- tors that you see around the hurricane. mined by sea-air interaction in the This is Hurricane FICO, just before SEASAT general ocean circulation. The ability passed over it on July 20, 1979. From to measure the winds in that area and data such as these, oceanographers feel the ability to calculate the ocean cir- they really could make great progress. culation will greatly enhance our under- Unfortunately, the satellite failed, but standing of the monsoon. Hinton and there will be others in the future. In Wally at Wisconsin estimated monthly the meantime, that small data base has average sea-surface wind stress over the been utilized quite well. We anticipate Indian Ocean using empirical relations that ocean surface currents will be de- from in situ measurements made by the termined from other orbiting instrument qeostationary satellite over the Indian platforms in the future. They will be Ocean during FGGE and from some of the as informative and instructive to the FGGE ships. Wind stress is the kind of oceanographers as the early cloud pic- information oceanographers really want, tures were to meteorologists. and this kind of information will be very valuable in the development of air- Using quality data on wind fields, sea interaction models. oceanographers can make new and interest-

51 There is a tremendous amount of group at NASA/GLAS. It shows the satellite-related activity going on and I monitoring of areas of ice in the have only scratched the surface. There Northern and Southern Hemispheres. just is not time to do the subject I am sure that the Canadians and the justice, or to mention all the groups DOD are working in this area too. that are doing important, exciting things. NSF certainly would be interested in I will stop at this point. funding research in this area, pro- vided a good proposal was submitted.

Question:

What is NSF's position on the pos- Vonder Haar: sibility of studying the cryosphere? The cryosphere has been identi- fied as of great importance in regional Bierly: and global climate. We got a good start on the microwave sensing of ice One of the vu-graphs that I have, with the NIMBUS satellites and we are but did not show, was from Dave Atlas' worried about a gap in that program.

52 850 MB WINDS 12 GMT 27 JUNE 1979

40N

30N

20N

10N

ON

10s

20s

30s 30E 40E 50E 60E 70E 80E 90E 100E 110E 120E

Fig. 1. (Taken from T.N. Krishnaumurti's 1979 Atlas.) 40E SOE 60E 70E 80E 90E 1 OOE 40?loE, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ( , , , , m l %N -...... -- ;:\/-; ...... - <, -...... ‘C...... *...*- . : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :- 30N -. **...... ,., ;; ;.,...... t *...... -

Fig. 2. Cloud-derived wind fields, July 1979 average. (after J. Young)

54 ?9188 RBSVOR LQW

40

30N 3oN aZON

10N

- -Mu -

I1Il!ltlllllI1llIlIIllIIl 70E 80E 90E 1OOE

Fig. 3a. Absolute vorticity - calculated from the wind fields of Fig. 2.

55

II II I IllIII II II II 11211 ,

73212 CHIR LQW.

40E 5OE 60E 7OE 80E 9C)E 1OOE ,IIJ;lll~1111~1111~11I~~.IIIl)~~”I~”

3ON 30N

-i 2ON

1ON

EQ

10s

,zos

~~1~~~~“~11~~1’~~‘~ OE 40E 50E 6OE 70E 8OE 9cl;

Fig. 3b. Geopotential field - calculated from the wind fields of Fig. 2.

56 (B.ASED UPON ANALYSES OF ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY)

PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS

A-CLOUD SHIELD WITH CONTINUOUSLY LOW IR TEMPERATURE < - 32OC AND AN AREA 2100,000 KM*

B-INTERIOR COLD CLOUD REGION WITH TEMPERATURE < -52OC AND AN AREA X50,000 KM*

l DURATION: SIZE DEFINITIONS MET FOR A PERIOD26 HR

Fig. 4.

ATM812078 4-21-81 Fig. 5a. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX,

Fig. 5b. Fig. 5c. 3NTERNATIONAL SATELLITE CLOUD CL1’MATOLO.Y PROJECT 4 983-i 987 l Goal: Acquire a Global Data Set of Reduced Radiances and Cloudiness Parameters of Manageable Proportions, for a Period of About Five Years 0 Data Source: Radiance Data from 4 or 5 Geostationary Satellites Plus Polar Orbiting Satellites @ Target Data Set: Reduce Multi-Channel Radiance Information From Original Volume of Order 500,000 Tapes/Year to Compressed Radiances of Order 500 Tapes/Year Eventually Cloud Information of Order 5 Tapes/Year 0 Data Pracassors: A World-Wide Community of Scientific Institutions (Government and Academic)

Fig. 6. ISCCP

GLOBAL CLOUD CLIMATOLOGY DATA REQUIRED FOR:

l UNDERSTANDING INTERDEPENDENCE OF CLOUDS AND CLIMATE

l UPGRADING CLIMATE MODELS

l ANALYZING CLIMATE CHANGE

l MONITORING WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION AND WATER USE

l MAKING MAXIMUM USE OF SOLAR ENERGY

Fig. 7a.

62 INTERNATIO,NAL SATELLITE CLOUD CLIMATOLOGY PROJECT

U.S.A. PARTICIPATION l BEGIN A 5YEAR PROJECT IN 1983 TO COLLECT SATELLITE RADIANCE DATA IN INTERNATIONAL FORMAT FROM U.S. SATELLITES. l ACCELERATE NATIONAL RESEARCH IMMEDIATELY - TO USE FGGE DATA TO RUN TESTS - TO DETERMINE METHODS TO GET CLOUDS FROM RADIANCES - TO DEVELOP DATA HANDLING SCHEMES

Fig. 7b.

I III II I II lIIIIlIIIIIIllllllll ISCCP: DATA REQUIREMENTS (PRELIMINARY)

AVERAGING

1. Horizontal Averaging - 250 x 250 Km boxes 2. Time Sampling - 3-hourly samples 3. Time Averaging - 309day averages (of 8 daily samples) 4. Parameters - For each parameter, box averages and variances are required (or comparable statistical measure of the shape of temporal distribution)

Fig. a. W CD a a > 0

Fig. 9.

65 e, llllll I ISCCP: STATUS OF SATELLITES, 1980-84

Meteosat-2

Indian Ocean

METEOR-y

ERBS

3266A(Ej

Fig. 10.

66 INTERNATIONAL PARTICIPANTS IN DATA PROCESSING FOR ISCCP

METEOSAT ESOC (DARMSTADT), CMS (LANNION), OTHERS GOES-EAST U.S.A., CANADA, CMS (LANNION) GOES-WEST U.S.A., CANADA GMS (SUNFLOWER) JAPAN, AUSTRALIA INDIAN OCEAN SATELLITE INDIA, USSR, CMS (LANNION) ARCTIC REGIONS U.S.A. (NESS), USSR ANTARCTIC REGION U.S.A. (NESS), AUSTRALIA, SOUTHERN AFRICA

Fig. 11 DATA PURPQSE SOURCE I) 11 pm Radiances Day and Night All Satellites (Primary ISCPP Data) Non-Cirrus Cloudiness 2) 0.5 pm Radiances Daytime All Satellites (Primary ISCPP Data) ’ Non-Cirrus 3) 6.7 pm Cirrus METEOSAT, PossiblyGOES.D.E,F 4) 3.7 pm Cirrus Phase NOAA-6,7 (Ice/Water) Low Level : Cloudiness at Night 5) CO Sounding Cirrus NOAA-6,7, Ra8iance (2 or 3 Meteor Channels; Peak Near Tropopause, e.g. 750 & 715 cm’l) 6) Clear Column Cirrus NOAA =6,7 Radiance 7) 1.55 and/or Precipitating NOAA=6,7, 0.8 cm Cumulus Meteor 6) Microwave Multiple Layers Polar Orbiters

Fig. 12

68 SUMMARY POINTS ON IMPORTANCE OF CLOUDS TO CLIMATE PREDSCTIO~~ 1. World Climate Program’s Primary Goal is to Predict Climate Through the Use of Climate Models 2. Earth’s Climate is Sensitive to Small Changes in Global Energy Balance 3. Clouds Represent one of the Largest Sources of Uncertainty in Models. Therefore, 4, Understanding the Role of Clouds in Climate and Proper Representation of Cloud-Radiation Feedback in Models is of Primary Importance to Climate Prediction.

Fig. 13

(1) Global Satellite Coverage First Achieved in FGGE (1979); Expected Again in 1982 (2) Now Possible Because of Hardware: Relatively Inexpensive Direct Read-Out Station, Antenna, Powerful MidiComputers (3) Growing Nucleus of Cloud Physicists, Climate Modelers, Radiation Experts Who Are Interested in the Cloud- Radiation Problem (4) International Resources and a Mechanism Exists (GARPIWCRP) to Make it Happen

Fig. 14

70 Fig. 15. Wind vectors from SEASAT scatterometer data. July 20, 1979.

71

&7; lllllIIIII I I lllll COMMENTS ON SATELLITE METEOROLOGY

FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES

Thomas Vonder Haar, Colorado State University

We were to hear from Vern Suomi on only as places from which to observe geostationary satellites, but as you the weather, but also as communications know, Vern was unable to come today, so platforms to broadcast the data back to Dave Atlas and I will attempt to fill in. many weather observers. The use of Then Dave Johnson will come back to the satellite information in studying podium and help us think about the severe storms will be talked about a future. lot in the AMS Conference on Severe Storms. Fig. 1 is the Spin Scan Cloud Camera Experiment which Vern Suomi and Bob Fig. 3 was taken in 1969 during Parent (together with a lot of help from the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteor- their friends) put together in the late ological Experiment. The locations of 1960's. It was flown in 1967 on NASA's some of NOAA's research ships are in- ATS-1 Satellite. Waiting for this dicated in a fan pattern with the sequence of photographs to come back island of Barbados at the apex. This from 40,000 km was probably as thrilling experiment in 1969 was one in which we and exciting as watching that first pho- were able to use satellite data perhaps tograph come in from TIROS 1. We began for the first time in an integrated to explore the time-domain of our manner in a high frequency domain to weather satellites. study systems -- in this case a tropical wave moving through a network. And as The ATS-3 satellite, as many of you we plan future field experiments, we remember, actually had three photomulti- almost take for granted the availability pliers that measured in the red, green, of geostationary satellite data. Back and blue wavelengths. Suomi, Parent and in 1969 we began an experiment on the crew were able to put together the first joint use of satellites, aircraft, color picture of the Planet Earth (Fig. radars, and ships, since satellite data 2) - Color helped us differentiate clouds had entered the time domain. We were before we were able to obtain infrared tracking clouds to obtain wind from pictures from that far away. These data cloud motion. This was something that were used in the late '60's and early Vern Suomi himself worked on. Figs. 4 '70's and we obtained the cloud view that and 5 are two computer plots taken near is now familiar to everyone through TV the equator in the Central Pacific from weather programs. When you watch the TV ATS-1, late in 1967. The experiment was programs of weather forecasters, you simply to track the clouds from tl to often see pictures of weather patterns t2. The time interval here was 46 minutes on the Earth from the geostationary and Suomi and some of us were able to satellites. Many of the operational obtain estimates of wind from the cloud meteorologists also use the geostationary motion. We are still trying to use satellite data -- receiving it from NESS these to the best advantage. as Dave Johnson described. Back in the late 1960's, these were quite exciting Fig. 6 is an example of a present developments that the group at the Uni- use of geostationary satellites. It is versity of Wisconsin pioneered. an example of one of the sectors that Dave talked about, which was selected in In 1968 we began to study the time a computer and developed for research rate-of-change of cumulus clouds and purposes on a new minicomputer digital cloud systems. These new platforms es- imaging system which many groups are sentially hung in space and served not now beginning to use.

72 The Air Weather Service will be dis- satellite pictures -- and it's the playing satellite data out of their com- bringing together of various kinds of puter data base in the form of pictures data such as radar and satellite data made by the computer. Here's my state, (see Fig. 10) that is the new challenge Colorado (see Fig. 7), with the counties for the 1980's. Although we are using superimposed, because in the summer of this type of display just for research 1980 we were running an informal experi- purposes now, by using the minicomputer ment with the National.Weather Service systems and data sets that are being Forecast Office in Denver. These digital produced by NESS, as well as research images, actually special weather data being done at NASA, this integrated products derived from satellite data, were data will be commonly available to the transmitted to the forecast office in operational meteorologist in the 1980's. Denver in less than 15 minutes after re- I should mention that there is a pro- ception processing at Colorado State Uni- gram under way at NOAA-ERL that is versity. Such high-resolution visible really going to move this technology pictures are very useful for forecasting into the National Weather Service fore- severe weather, and in our mountains of casting area: the so-called PROFS -- the West are extremely valuable for pro- (Prototype Regional Operational Forecast viding warning of possible flooding. System) program.

Fig. 8 was taken during the time of I'd like to summarize with the a very severe hail storm in Ft. Collins, comment that the geostationary satellites where I live, and, again, it's one more that began in the 1960's are going into example of how imagery is now coming out the 1980's with yet-to-be-realized po- of the computer where it is mated with tential, both for observing the weather political boundaries, watersheds, and the and for communicating that information. like. Many of you remember the tragedy, We have a great deal of work to do yet, the flood we had in the Big Thompson so we've got to keep good international Canyon several years ago. We are hoping programs of the kind that Morris Tepper that with the aid of satellite informa- mentioned going. We should work in our tion and other systems, we can be more own country and in the international forum alert to this kind of situation. to make satellite potential come to be realized for forecasters and operational Fig. 9 is to remind you that we can meteorologists. put the streamline fields on top of the Now, I'd like to call on Dave Atlas.

73

Fig. 2. First satellite color picture of Earth. (for the purposes of this report, transferred from color to B & W - for approximate color, see graph on figure) 75 Fig. 3. Picture taken during 1969 BOMEX.

i r-, l . . . I ydii. + . . . #. .’ ...... : : * ; ...... * - . #‘.’ A +A *. . s . , * ...... : .. . . . ; i...... A+ -#rw

p),-J/.+.~...+ . . . . -+ . . . . +.:. . ;1, -c

Fig. 5. Wind fields derived from data shown in Fig. 4.

78

I

80 Fig. 8. Computer-generated false-color image showing a severe hail storm together with political boundaries. (For this report, transferred from color to B & W, colors noted-where possible.) Fig. 9. Example of computer superposition of streamline fields. (For this report, picture transferred from color to B & W. Arrow lines-green, range from white to dark blue.) Fig. 10. Combined radar and satellite data. (For the purposes of this report, this picture was trans- ferred from color to B & W. Color range, as indicated shows lightest areas yellow, to green, to red.) PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE

David Atlas, Chief NASA/Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences

Thank you, Tom, good morning. I'm February 1979. First, let us look sorry that Vern Suomi, to whom we owe at the sea-ice mapping. This field tremendous credit for the entire develop- of sea-ice extent for January 1979 ment of this field, couldn't be with us; (Fig. 1) is derived from the emissivity but I thank him for the opportunity of of the surface as determined primarily squeezing in a little time on our own. from observations in the 50.3 GHZ MSU channel, using ground temperatures By the way, in Gene Bierly's presen- obtained primarily from the 3.7 urn and tation, he left out a number of important 4.0 pm channels on HIRS-2. Oceanic contributors to the weather and climate areas in which the emissivity, averaged business in NASA. I'd particularly like for the month, is greater than 0.7 are to mention our friend Bill Vaughan from indicated as ice-covered. For compari- Marshall Space Flight Center, and our son, we have a field of sea-ice concen- friends at Langley Research Center, and tration greater than 25% as derived Ames and JPL. from SMMR (NIMBUS 7) observations with 25 km resolution, for the last 5 days In some respects the future is here in January. The agreement between the now. I'm going to show you some of the two fields is quite remarkable. results which have just come out of the computer at Goddard/GLAS and I want to The next slide (Fig. 2) shows credit a few of the people who are re- sea-surface temperatures. A couple of sponsible for this; particularly Joel years ago the problem of measuring sea- Susskind, GLAS, and Moustafa Chahine from surface temperatures accurately was one JPL. The other part of the work is of the major ones we all faced in credited to Dennis Chesters and Louis oceanography and climate. Suddenly we Uccellini. By the way, the work I'm now have three methods, all of which going to talk to you about with respect seem to be giving sea-surface tempera- to the Global Weather Program and infer- tures to useful accuracy. This is again ence of new parameters from the existing from the HIRS/MSU system. The algorithms system, comes from an effort at GLAS to are complicated but you can see that get as much coordinated information as climatology of the monthly temperatures possible during the FGGE SOP-l, the from this system is really beautiful. Special Observing Period in January, 1979. You can see all the proper currents The idea was to squeeze as much informa- here: the Gulf Stream, the Humbolt and tion as possible out of that data set. in the Pacific, the cold Eastern Pacific It turns out that, particularly in these Region. times of stringent budgets, we find that we can do a great many things for which The next slide (Fig. 3) shows the we thought we would have had to design anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. new satellites. This is the sea-surface temperature anomaly field for January 1979 obtained The HIRS-2/MSU operational sounding by differencing the observed tempera- data on TIROS-N has been analyzed at GLAS tures from the 20-year average, averaged by direct physical inversion of the multi- over 4O latitude by So longitude. We spectral radiative transfer equation to have a very cold anomaly in the Northern produce a number of atmospheric and Hemisphere, the agreement with ships and surface fields for the period January to buoys is very good. In the Southern

84 Hemisphere it is less good, but that is Fig. 5 shows the 3.9 1~m channel, due, we think, to the paucity of ship and the best and cleanest window, and re- buoy coverage. The fact is that in the presents the surface temperatures plus North Atlantic, we find that the r.m.s. a little reflection from the sun. You difference between the temperatures from can see the surface temperature gradients ships and buoys and the satellite is run- from about Arkansas to Kansas. ning about 0.4OC, and in the North Pacific about 0.6OC. Fig. 6 shows the 6.7 l.lm water vapor channel representative of the water vapor While the HIRS/MSU system was de- in about a 200 mb layer, nominally cen- signed for temperature profiles, we also tered near the 400 mb level. The actual get sea-surface temperatures, cloud level sampled is variable, being lower height and cloud amount, microwave sur- where there is less water vapor, and face emissivity, sea-ice and snow cover. higher where there is more water vapor. We are currently working on schemes to The water vapor itself is a determinant get humidity profiles and cloud and sur- in controlling the level. at which the face albedo. In the future, we think we observations are relevant. There is a can get a handle on soil moisture by vortex in the Kansas and Colorado region monitoring the day-night differences of at roughly the 400 mb level which was land surface temperature. Research is well confirmed in the radiosonde obser- under way to see if it is possible to vations themselves, but would not have determine air-sea temperature differences been seen without the water vapor image. by incorporation of boundary layer theory The dark region in the northeast is a into the retrieval algorithm. However, jet of about 100 knots showing drying. I'm very skeptical about obtaining the boundary layer wind speed over the ocean Vonder Haar: and rainfall over the ocean. This situation happened to be In the Global Weather Experiment July 13, 1981, at the same time that during the SOP, we made 76 test forecasts the CCOPE experiments were going on in to determine the impact of satellite ob- Southeast Montana. This will probably servations on forecast skill. The solid be one of the most studied cases of bars in Fig. 4 represent the number of CCOPE, one of the many good cases they forecasts in which the satellite provided captured this summer. You can see the an increased skill, the dashed bars are alternating moist and dry bands, moving those in which the no-sat forecast pro- into that system. vided increased skill, and the dotted are those in which there was no change in Atlas: skill (Halem, M., E. Kalnay, W. E. Baker, and R. Atlas, 1982: An assessment of the We thought originally that with FGGE Satellite Observing System during VAS we would not be able to get the SOP-l. BAMS, April, 1982). You can see lower level moisture. But Dennis that in the Southern Hemisphere the im- Chesters has very recently come up with pact was just overwhelming. It decreases a very interesting scheme to do this. slightly with the number of days of the forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, Fig. 7 shows you a combination of where we are data-rich, the skill is two channels that are used. What we do better with satellite observations and is to use a split window approach where the difference increases with time out the difference in the radiative signal to about the fifth day. in the 11.2 and 12.7 pm channels are used to determine the low level water Now I switch to the VAS system. I'm vapor. The three pieces of information stealing Louis Uccellini's thunder from upon which those data are dependent are the severe storms conference, but I want the surface skin temperature, air to show you that the future is indeed here. temperature, and the transmission of

85 ,&g$ I I II II I I III1IIlllIlIl llIllllllIllllllllllllll the air, which is moisture-dependent. By The infrared arrays are in a more taking the ratio of the.two moisture developmental stage than the others. channels and estimating the air tempera- There are incredible new optics that ture for a 300 mb layer (700 - JO00 rnb) allow you to image the entire Earth we can reduce the problem to two equations with resolution of one-third of a and two unknowns. The two unknowns which kilometer, or better if you want, in appear as radiative transmission "signals" the visible, and 1 km in the IR. are the surface skin temperature and the low level moisture. This estimate repre- That's terribly important. One sents the moisture in the lowest 300 mb, of the things that we note is that we roughly between 1000 and 700 mb, and is are currently using 10 km IR resolution. depicted on the figure in a color code When we track cells, we forget that the representing precipitable water with a system is biased toward those large scale that runs from 1 gm to about 9 gm. cells, which fill an IR pixel. These In the region of East Oklahoma and North- are the long-lived cells and, by defini- east Texas, there is about 5 gm of preci- tion, they aren't the ones that move pitable water, going to a significantly with the winds. It is the small-short- dry region in Kansas and Nebraska. lived ones that are the better tracers, and that's one of the reasons we have to Now, we develop another picture by go to higher resolution in the visible taking the 6.7 ~.lm moisture band and over- and in the IR. We also have to go to laying it. Fig. 8 then shows yellow higher resolution in time because if a streaks, which represent contrast between storm lives a half-hour, we can't trust the low level moisture from the split it as a tracer. We think we can image window and dryness aloft from the 6.7 Pm the entire globe in 5 to 10 minutes, channel at the 400 mb level, showing the rather than 20 or more, and that's going potential for convective instability. to leave time to cover the local and This figure and the next (Fig. 9) show regional "hotspot" areas in seconds to the clouds breaking out 6 hours later and minutes. One can then develop time- we have very good convective activity in lapse movies of the development of two streaks in Oklahoma. These results individual storms and fit them into the are very exciting in terms of the future local and regional forecast system on of utilizing the VAS in a very effective call using some queuing system. way. Soundings will be available, as Needless to say my enthusiasm demon- will onboard processing. Coming out of strates that I have been converted to previously classified defense work there satellite meteorology. It is really will be onboard processing systems that quite remarkable what has been done and will obtain cloud track winds very what the future portends. simply. We will then transmit the winds down to the ground. Spectral imaging Now I want to take a quick look into will be done on board, and the ratioing the future. The concepts I am about to of 2 or more channels will also be done discuss are due to a combination of on board to save bandwidth. And, of brainstorming by Vern Suomi and my col- course, soundings will be done on board leagues at Goddard, Hughes, and RCA. In as well. Climatologically there will the area of geosynchronous satellites we be some problems, because you may want are going to see three-axis stabilized to save some raw data in the hope of systems with pointing capability. Avail- using them later in some unanticipated able now are two-dimensional multilinear way. arrays in which you can pack millions of detectors in a few square centimeters, so Finally, I want to finish up by that you can take an entire image instan- mentioning a spinning radiometer under taneously, in any band that you select. development that will view the entire

86 globe for sea-surface temperature, for MOS. And, of course, there will be precipitation and storms, quantitatively active radars in space looking at pre- over the oceans, and qualitatively over cipitation and lidars looking at a host the land. Dual satellite stereography of other things. is coming along at a rapid pace. The work on oceanography is also remarkable. In short, technologically, the We hope TOPEX will fly in the late 1980's, future is very bright; if the budgetary depending upon the budget situation. But outlook were better, my optimism would certainly ESA will be launching the ERS-1 be unbounded. In any case, the years and the Japanese will be launching the ahead will be very exciting ones.

87 HIRS2iMSU ICE EXTENT JAN 1979 125 KM SMMR ICE EXTENT JAN 1979 25 KM 44 .:...:...::...... ::.::.. . ‘.I.. ., r AbY

Fig. 1. Sea-ice mapping from HIRS-2 on TIROS-N (January 1979). MONTHLY MEAN SST JAN 1979 FROM HIRS2iMSU

hJ P 9 .

N 70N

50N

30N

10N

10s

30s

50s

G 70s .5 St : I . J 160W 120w 80W 4ow 0 40E 80E 120E 160E SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (JAN. 1979) - (20 YEAR JAN. AVERAGE) ,+l”m<-loL-1 HI RS21MSU SST 70N

50N

30N

10N

10s

30s

50s 0 60E 120E 180 12ow 60W 0

SHIPS AND BUOYS SST 70N

50N

30N 10N

0 60E 120E 180 12ow 60W 0

Fig. 3. Sea-surface temperature anomaly - present data minus 20-yr. average.

90 SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FORECASTS

NORTH AMERICA & EUROPE SOUTH AMERICA 8 AUSTRALIA

60 I q:i.:I: Same SkiI 1 -j I EaSAT worse $z$,SAT better La ;::,.:.:.::::.:.:.. ,.:.:.::: n.‘.‘.I ::. ::_::. :::::. _ 11/:.:.::.:.:. :::.‘_‘.” :::

1 2 3 1 2 3 FORECAST DAYS FORECAST DAYS

Fig. 4. Satellite data impact on forecast skill. ul N

Fig. 5. VAS data.

I: 111E I:; !f, - ._IU L ‘T’ 1 3 .I’ :3 1 - 1 5 132 Z - I::l-l A t4t4 E L 1 2 I::1.1.l 1 t.111 I:I lj.1 + ::;1-l t.1.; 4 . ‘3 ~11I:: R III 1.1::I

Fig. 7. VAS split window moisture data.

94 Fig. 8. Moisture (yellow) from the split window, dryness aloft from 6.7 w channel. (For the purposes of this report, this picture was transferred from color to B & W. Color range, as noted on the graph above, shows darkest areas dark blue to lightest areas going from yellow to white.)

95 YELLOV? LIGHT YELLObJ

Fig. 9. Same as Fig. 8, six hours later. (For the purposes of this report, this picture transferred from color to B & W. Color range is same as Fig. 8.)

96 REMARKS ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

David Johnson

That's quite a plan Dave Atlas has One has to make some compromises, but suggested. Reminds me of one incident they're not all that great when you from history that might be worth noting. really come down to it. And there are I'm going to be a skeptic now, and that a lot of strengths. For example, the may be surprising to many of you. I re- data are pumped through in almost real call in late 1958, just about the time time, regardless of whether it's for NASA opened its doors, everyone was operations or research, and this helps scurrying around trying to figure out everyone. I would hope that with the how to spend intelligently all the space bigger Advanced TIROS-N polar orbiting development money that was flowing out spacecraft, it will be possible to of a concerned Congress, like water from start squeezing in some ocean observa- a huge faucet. A group of us went to tions, even beyond those contemplated see the top decision-makers and within for TOPEX. TOPEX must be a dedicated 48 hours, approval was granted to spend mission, and I hope it gets funded. millions and millions of dollars on Potentially, a scatterometer could be developing a promising new satellite flown on the Advanced TIROS-N satellite. system, which was launched in about 3f My feeling is that scatterometer obser- years. vations for surface winds over the oceans are near the top of the list for Well, that isn't the way it is both meteorology and oceanography. today. Somebody has their hand on the Microwaves are the way to go for ocean faucet -- and someone is trying to pull observations to get around clouds, but the plug in the bathtub. If you're I am not a strong believer in microwave lucky today, it will be between 8 and 10 observations of the sea-surface alone. years from the time one knows exactly I think it's got to be microwaves and what is wanted and needed, to the time infrared. when it is launched -- and that does not include unusual delays in budget approval. I believe that we need and will It means that we can't think that every- have operational soundings from geo- thing's going to be solved tomorrow. How stationary orbit. I think that the will we decide which of all those needed pressure in a year or two, when the data outputs Dave listed are going to be research results now being developed obtained from a single satellite? Right are available, will clearly show the now, to give you an example, NESS has payoff of this capability, even in real difficulty controlling the GOES austere budget times. It will present satellites to satisfy the diverse research real operational management challenges, needs as well as operational requirements. requiring decisions between imaging and It's not that the NESS people are against soundings. I'm very pleased with what research. But everything can't be done our colleagues in NASA and NOAA have simultaneously. The satellite itself been doing in arranging for the forth- has tremendous capabilities, but it can coming experimental period where accom- only do a few things at a time. modation has been made by both opera- tional and research people. One would With those cautionary notes, I'd hope that the sounding versus imaging like to indicate what may still be feasi- conflict problems can be resolved. ble, in spite of my pessimism. I want to However, care must be taken not to put underscore what Dave has said, that this a lot of other things onto the satel- new way of looking at the world, like lite, if they would lead again to a using a spacecraft bus for both opera- serious conflict between operations tions and research, saves a lot of money. and research. In other words, there

97

I! I I!II!! l!I!ll!Il!Il!!lll!! I

must be a balance in the needs of the research and thereby avoiding some two communities. of the conflicts that are inevitably there with two different groups with Turning briefly to the polar orbit- hands on the trigger. ing satellites, the next step forward must be the highest quality microwave Johnson: sounding that can be obtained. We know how to do it now. It is expensive, pro- It would be more expensive, it's bably on the order of 30 to 50 million that simple. If you put research sen- dollars to develop the first instrument, sors on an operational spacecraft, then just the sensor. The cost for each sub- the research budget does not have to sequent operational instrument would be fund the launch costs or basic space- perhaps 10 million dollars. But this is craft costs, telemetry, etc. Funds are cheap compared to the price tag on Dave's required only for the add-on cost of dream. the sensor itself, its integration into the spacecraft and then whatever data Now to discuss problems and issues. processing is required. First is the question of research and development, and operations. What is Vonder Haar: the program going to be, from a policy and management point of view? No one Without a NIMBUS program to carry can answer this question today. It is these experiments, we're eating our being debated now in the Administration, seedcorn if we don't continue to fly but what the outcome is going to be, no experiments that lead to the future one knows. I'm sure that you've heard operational systems. of the proposals to transfer the weather satellite program to the private sector. Johnson: Questions are also being raised with re- spect to the entire National Weather We need to recognize that when we Service in this regard. Where this is piggy-back on operational spacecraft, we all going to lead, I don't know. Regard- have a very finite limitation on the kinds less of the policy decisions, I hope funds of sensors that can be tested. There are will be provided for the near-term im- very serious limitations. But I was an- provements that I have touched upon, as swering from the cost point of view. well as sufficient funding to provide some new technology for the future. I per- Tepper: sonally don't think the rate of progress in the first two decades of the space age One of the things that we all anti- will be maintained, but I don't think cipated back in the early days was that that should discourage us. A lot can be these systems would be producing a lot of done without needing the enormous sums of data, a lot of new data. I am reminded of money that are requied for the develop- some visits I made to NCAR and other places ment and launch of entirely new space where I tried to involve people in utilizing systems. the data, and almost every time we talked about the development of a system we said the major problem would be utilization. I'm Vonder Haar: glad to see Dave Atlas has referred to the utilization of the data that exists. One of This idea of sharing a satellite the looks at the future that I would between operational and research purposes like to strongly encourage to the gives a lot of economies, just as you younger people who are coming along is have been sharing facilities with the not to "abandon the data cemeteries," Air Weather Service. What would you as one of my friends has said. There think of dedicating every 4th or 5th in is a lot of good stuff buried there, the series of satellites more towards and one should get it out and use it

98

L before we worry too much about developing Atlas: new systems to give us more things to bury in data repositories. There is a great deal of work going on at Goddard on soil moisture The second comment I would like to by microwave methods. It requires 20 make is with reference to the open faucet to 50 cm microwave wavelengths. You that was gushing millions of dollars into can get qualitative information about our pockets in the 1960's, and the notion soil moisture fairly well, but it is that all we had to do was take the money affected by roughness and vegetation and spend it. We were in a period of and what-have-you. I personally am growing science at that time, and any doing a little research on this now growth situation is characterized by an with a colleague at GLAS and we find exponential growth curve. Thus, the we can get soil moisture out of the things we were doing were in big leaps daily trend of IR temperature. When and it was easier to convince people that you walk on the beach at the water satellite meteorology was a great thing. line, the sun doesn't heat it up, and One of the first things we did when we you're quite comfortable; while on faced budget people was to explain to dry sand, it's hot. We're using that them why meteorological satellite develop- sort of signal. But we normalize it ment was necessary. They didn't pour in an interesting way. This is squeezing money into our pockets until they heard new and important information out of our story -- until we told them what the existing data. As far as ice depth is system could produce. Yes, it was easier concerned, there are some concepts for to do then. We would show them a picture it but I don't know them well enough to of a hurricane and this they understood. discuss them. I might note, however, that the community must make the decision Things are tougher now, not because as to whether they want to fly lidars we have a Dave Stockman and other such for monitoring the icecap. It is a very hard-nosed people at the faucet, but be- important climatological problem. You cause it's really tougher convincing don't have to do the measurement more people that what we're going to get out often than once every decade or so. of new systems will be that much of an But it is an exceedingly important thing increment over the past. So, in summary, and nobody can visualize a better way I want to plan events in perspective. of doing it than with a lidar system. One reason the money was there in the early days was because it was easier to Freeman: explain why satellite meteorology was a great thing. It's not so easy anymore. I would like to emphasize and even It is more difficult to explain why get- formalize Dave's statement about the ting another tenth of a degree of accur- scatterometer and the insistance that acy out of a system is worth all that it be a weather measurement. This is money. I think future support will de- a measurement prospect that is similar pend upon the successful utilization of to the one of seeing the clouds, since the data that we already have, the ex- you can now get the surface winds over traction of more information which will the ocean areas. The ocean has been make predictions a little bit more the place that has been the least ob- accurate and useful. served in the past, and now it suddenly becomes the most observed. The surface wind is really just as important as the Fleagle: cloud height and the existence of clouds in studying meteorology. We can formalize In Dave Atlas' talk, I don't think this and say that it is the duty of the I heard anything about soil moisture and weather establishment to obtain the ice depth. surface winds over the oceans. It is

99 possible to do it, so let's marshal1 the are coming rapidly now, but it is resources in spite of the political situ- costing the country a lot to maintain ation. It is very important scientifi- that flow of papers and research. I cally. don't see an exponential growth of funding anywhere and that is the Atlas: dilemma. Even if we get constant fund- iw , if we want new sensors and new I feel that a great deal of the systems, what will we do? You can't progress that has been made has been the have them while it's costing so much to result of our close association with the maintain the present system. academic community. They deserve tremen- dous credit. Unfortunately, there are ~___Vonder Haar: only three university departments in the United States that have the resources to The base of users has increased do an in-depth job in satellite meteor- tremendously. In the early days, all ology . Not to mention that if you look those dollars were spent by a small in the literature, you will find that if number of people, for a small number you count the number of publications, of experiments in universities and you'll find that satellite observations NASA. Now the base of users is much are part and parcel of the vast majority broader. The dollars in the satellite of papers. But most cannot utilize satel- business are spread much wider, and lite data in depth. I appeal to you in a therefore, the impact per person, per time when budgets are tight, that the professional, is much greater. We are university community really should be in the age of using new tools, not the supported intensively. UCAR should get least of which are the mini-computers. into this satellite business and make it There would be a lot of benefit if we more accessible to the universities. could give each Air Weather Service Officer or each university man an inter- Dodge: active system. I don't think we need to increase the amount of data. Rather, I would like to try to put Dave we should increase the output that comes Atlas' and Morris Tepper's comments to- from that pile of bits. gether here. I liked the picture of the growth of meteorology, especially the Wilson: concept of an exponential growth, like a capacitor with the voltage going up. But For daily meteorology and for unfortunately, when you reach the full climate studies, a lot of us are depend- charge, the voltage levels off, and that ing upon the satellites to give us is where we are now. It is costing a lot records of many things, like the snow to maintain the systems, to do all the cover, the sea-surface temperatures, research that Dave spoke about. NASA's radiation budget estimates. In view of programs alone are annually somewhere the signs of the budget cuts, do you between 20 and 25 million dollars for data think we will be able to defend the interpretation. We are not putting up operational integrity of the system that very many new space systems right now, nor we have built up over all these years -- are we developing very many new sensors. geostationary and polar-orbiting satel- It is costing us a great deal just to lites -- not worrying about the research maintain the extensive research effort questions or the new concepts. Are we with all of its interactive systems, such going to be able to retain all this? as computers, along with massive organized collective data interpretation schemes. It's a good effort. I manage the Severe Johnson: Storms Program, and we've supported 27 -- papers that will appear in the conference that follows this one. The applications ~11 I can say is that I hope so.

100 Ludwig: field. Again, comparing it with the microwave imaging that Dave talked Just to stimulate your thinking about, it certainly is something that further; on the-other end of the spectrum, is possible. It is just a matter of away from reality, the technology now money at this point. I think that one appears to be approaching where it should of the things that has to be done is be possible to measure the three-dimen- that there has to be a process gone sional wind field on a global basis, through by the use of data that we have several times a day in the absence of now, and perhaps some more intermediate clouds, by the use of lidar techniques -- experiments, to find out the relative scattering off atmospheric aerosols. This values of these various things. We are is a technology which is growing out of probably not going to be able to obtain the military development of high-powered everything that is technologically pos- lasers. It is not outside the possibility sible. Sorting out the relative that in ten years time, it might be pos- importance of research questions in terms sible, given the infusion of quite large of their end objectives -- forecasting sums of money, to make that an operational the weather -- or whatever they may be -- reality -- a three-dimensional wind is extremely important.

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A I I I llllllIllIIlIllIIlllIIlIllllllllIIllIll1 3. RECIPIENT’S CATiiOG NO. NASA CP-2257 7 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. REPORT DATE The Conception, Growth, Accomplishments,and Future November 1982 of Meteorological Satellites 6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE

~- .-__- 78. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPOR r 7. AUTHOR William W. Vaughan, Organizer 1 9. PERFORM,ING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS lo. WORK UNIT, NO. George C. Marshall Space Flight Center M-391 Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama 35812 Il. CONTRACT OR GRANT NO. /,S. TYPE OF REPOR;. & PERIOD COVERt 2. SPONS0RlNt AGENCY NAME ANO ADDRESS National Aeronautics and Space Administration Conference Publication Washington, D. C. 25046 14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE

15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1 This report was prepared under the sponsorship of the Atmospheric Sciences Division, George C. Marshall Space Flight Center.

16. ABSTRACT The papers contained in this conference proceedings are those presented in the session on Meteorological Satellites during the San Antonio, Texas, American Meteorological Society's 62nd Annual Meeting held January 11-15, 1982. They provide reviews of past activities and assessments of the current and projected role of meteorological satellites, with emphasis on the program's development and achievements.

7. KE’i WORD5 18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT Meteorology Meteorological satellites - history Unclassified - Unlimited Satellite instrumentation Spacecraft Subject Category 47

2. SECURITY CLASSIF. &‘f thh rapti) 20. SECURITY CLA! 81F. (of thh pqs) 21. NO. OFFAGES 22. PRICE Unclassified Unclassified 101 A06 I * For sale by the National Technical Information Service, Springfield. Virginia 22161 NASA-Langley. 1982

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