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Modeling the Undiscovered Gross Domestic Product

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Modeling the Undiscovered Gross Domestic Product MODELING THE UNDISCOVERED 2010/2018 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2010/2018 Gross domestic product is the total value of goods produced and services provided within a country during one year. The problem is there are neither fiscal policy instruments nor records of GDP during Pagume in Ethiopia. Thus, the hypothesis is there is no relationship between the UGDP and Undiscovered Gross Pagume over the long run. The general objective of the study is to model the Domestic Product Undiscovered GDP in Ethiopia. The specific objectives of the study are to (UGDP), Broadening analyze the difference between Ethiopian budget year and Gregorian budget income tax bases, year (modeling three categories of four years in the medium term), estimate the model of undiscovered GDP over the study period (1989-2004), Additional income tax determine the amount of undiscovered GDP at the base year (1988) and its revenue and Additional growth rate and forecast the Undiscovered GDP (2005-2017). The disposable income, Linear undiscovered gross domestic product (UGDP) was generated as the product Trend Analysis of the of average daily gross domestic product (actual GDP divided by 360 days) UGDP model, Growth and 5 days (if the year was an ordinary) and 6 days (if the year was leap Trend Analysis of year). Next, the undiscovered gross domestic product is regressed against time over years. The findings are we reject the null hypothesis and accept Undiscovered Gross the alternative that there is strong relationship between UGDP and time, as Domestic Product, time increases by a unit UGDP increases by 402.50 millions Birr; 432.51 Forecasting the UGDP million Birr is the adjusted level of UGDP for the base year (1988) and the with Linear and Growth undiscovered gross domestic product increased at a 18.02 % annual rate Trend Comparison. from 1988 to 2004. Therefore, if the government amends and applies universal business income tax schedules the undiscovered Gross Domestic Product will be discovered. Contents Pages 1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................3 1.1. Statement of the Problem ............................................................................................................3 1.2. Objectives of the study .................................................................................................................5 1.3. Significance of the study ...............................................................................................................5 1.4. Concepts of the Undiscovered Economics .....................................................................................5 2. Literature Review..................................................................................................................................6 2.1. Critical review of theory of time.....................................................................................................7 2.1.1. Ancient Babylon ....................................................................................................................7 2.1.2. Ancient Greek........................................................................................................................7 2.1.3. Ancient Ethiopia....................................................................................................................8 2.1.4. Ancient Rome........................................................................................................................8 2.2. Birth of Christos ............................................................................................................................8 2.2.1. Amete Mehret and Anno Domini..........................................................................................8 2.2.2. Map of the first globe ...........................................................................................................8 2.3. The European Renaissance ...........................................................................................................9 2.3.1. Copernicus’ theory was not as accurate as Ptolemy’s..........................................................9 2.4. Empirical evidence ......................................................................................................................12 2.4.1. Moderate and extreme seasons .........................................................................................12 2.4.2. Recording technology .........................................................................................................13 2.4.3. Economics as Science..........................................................................................................13 2.5. Benefits of the previous literatures..............................................................................................15 3. Methodology.......................................................................................................................................16 3.1. Descriptive and Inferential methods ..........................................................................................16 3.2. Study periods and source of data ...............................................................................................16 3.4. Model Specification ....................................................................................................................17 CHAPTER FOUR ...........................................................................................................................................19 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION..................................................................................................................19 4.1. Model of the Undiscovered Gross Domestic Product.................................................................19 4.1.1. Results of the Undiscovered Gross Domestic Product...................................................19 4.1.2. Linear Trend Analysis of the UGDP model ...........................................................................19 4.2. Growth Trend Analysis of Undiscovered Gross Domestic Product .....................................23 1 4.3. Forecasting the UGDP with Linear and Growth Trend Comparison..................................25 5. Conclusion and Policy Implications ................................................................................................27 5.1. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................27 5.2. Policy Implications....................................................................................................................29 6. References ..........................................................................................................................................30 7. Appendices..........................................................................................................................................32 2 MODELING THE UNDISCOVERED GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1. Introduction 1.1. Statement of the Problem Gross Domestic Product is the total value of final goods and services produced in a country during a calendar year. GDP per person is the simplest overall measure of income in a country. Economic growth is measured by change in GDP from year to year [Streak, 2003:129]. But, GDP’s definition of calendar year is too general. Because, we discovered there are two new theories of time. New theories of time are the Tropics rotate and revolve faster than the Temperates. Consistently; there are also two technologies of time1. The first technology of time that records faster day, week, month and year of Amete Mehert is called Ethiopian calendar. Whereas the second technology that records slower day, week, month and year of Anno Domini is called Gregorian calendar. Besides recording, each calendar uses to make fiscal instruments that link factors of production, organization and productive labour force. For example, financial regulation of the country declared the Ethiopia’s budget year runs from 1st Hamle of this year to 30th Sene of next year. This budget year or fiscal year months’ use to make fiscal policy instruments such as income tax schedules. Income tax schedules in turn use to estimate, legislate and execute activities of budget during a year, medium period (4 years) and long year period (28 years). Consistently, Ethiopia’s income tax law verbally obliges every employer how to apply the individual income tax base of 12 months such as 11 of 30 days (Meskerem to Hamle) and one special month of 35 and 36 days (Nehase and Pagume). “Employers have an obligation to withhold the tax from each payment to an employee, and to pay the withheld amounts to the Tax Authority the amount withheld during each calendar month, in applying preceding income attributable to the months of Nehase and Pagume shall be aggregated and treated as the income of one month.” Income tax law (series of income tax laws: 1953, 1994 and 2008). Nonetheless, there are several economic, natural and social problems. The first problem is that neither salary income and rental income nor income tax revenue is operational for 5 and 6 marginal days in the short run. The second problem is moderate seasons and shorter variations of day and night of the year in which we are naturally observing, but not recognized and institutionalized. The third problem is the current growth and transformation plan (GTP) projected
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