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WHY DO PEACE NEGOTIATIONS FAIL? a Case Study of the 2012-2015 Peace Talks Between Turkey and the PKK

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WHY DO PEACE NEGOTIATIONS FAIL? a Case Study of the 2012-2015 Peace Talks Between Turkey and the PKK Université de Montréal WHY DO PEACE NEGOTIATIONS FAIL? A Case Study of the 2012-2015 Peace Talks between Turkey and the PKK par Serkan Yarali Département de science politique Faculté des arts et des sciences Mémoire présenté en vue de l’obtention du grade de Maîtrise en science politique January 2017 © Serkan YARALI, 2017 Université de Montréal WHY DO PEACE NEGOTIATIONS FAIL? A Case Study of the 2012-2015 Peace Talks between Turkey and the PKK par Serkan Yarali Département de science politique Faculté des arts et des sciences Mémoire présenté en vue de l’obtention du grade de Maîtrise en science politique January 2017 © Serkan YARALI, 2017 Résumé Pourquoi les négociations de paix échouent-elles ? Pour répondre à cette question, ce mémoire synthétise la littérature sur les théories de la négociation et l’intervention de tierces parties dans les conflits intra-étatiques. À l’aide de la méthode de l’étude de cas, j’applique ce cadre théorique au troisième cycle de négociations de paix entre la Turquie et le Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan, qui s’est tenu de la fin décembre 2012 à Juillet 2015. Le modèle de négociation de guerre met l’accent sur les problèmes d’information asymétrique et engagement crédible qui mènent à l’échec de négociations. Les problèmes d’information asymétrique et engagement crédible sont habituellement plus aigus dans les conflits intra- étatiques. Car il est plus difficile d’obtenir les informations sur les capacités militaires des groupes armés non-étatiques (GANE) et il y a généralement de grandes asymétries de pouvoir entre les États et les GANE. Cette étude de cas apporte ainsi quatre contributions à la compréhension du sujet. Premièrement, lors d’un processus de paix, les deux parties impliquées peuvent consciemment faire des choix qui ne leur permettront pas d’atteindre leurs objectifs. Deuxièmement, ces choix résultent des mesures mal-conçues dans les pratiques de négociation et/ou l’absence de tierce partie qui rétablirait l’équilibre relatif de pouvoir et qui le maintiendrait pendant les négociations de paix. En fin de compte, cela accentue les problèmes d’engagement crédible. Troisièmement, les changements exogènes perturbateurs en matière des capacités relatives, en particulier en faveur des GANE, peuvent produire les problèmes d’information asymétrique. Quatrièmement, certains conflits ne se prêtent pas à l’intervention de tierce partie. Il peut être très difficile ou lourd de conséquence pour les tierces parties de rétablir l’équilibre relatif des pouvoirs. Mots-clés : Turquie-PKK; théorie de négociation; intervention de tierces parties ; échec des négociations ; processus de paix; engagement crédible; information asymétrique I Abstract Why do peace negotiations fail? Answering this question, this dissertation synthesizes the literature on bargaining theory and third party involvement in intrastate conflicts. Using qualitative case study methods, I employ this theoretical framework to the third round of the peace talks between Turkey and Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which was held between December 2012 and July 2015. Bargaining model of war highlights the problems of information asymmetries and credible commitment that lead to bargaining failures. Information asymmetries and commitment problems are usually more severe in intrastate conflicts because it tends to be more difficult to obtain information about the military capabilities of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) and there tends to be larger power asymmetries between states and NSAGs. The case highlights four sets of implications. First, both sides in a peace process can willingly make choices that fail to achieve the ends to which they aspired. Second, these choices result from ill-designed measures in bargaining practices and/or the lack of a third party that would redress the relative balance of power and maintain it during the peace talks. This ultimately intensifies the problems of credible commitment. Third, disruptive exogenous shifts in relative capabilities, especially in favor of the NSAG, may produce asymmetric information problems. Fourth, some conflicts do not lend themselves to third-party involvement, as it may be too difficult or costly for third parties to redress the relative balance of power. Keywords : Turkey-PKK; bargaining theory; third-party involvement; negotiation failures; peace processes; credible commitment; asymmetric information II Table of Contents RÉSUMÉ ................................................................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................................................... II TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... III LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................. V ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................................................... VIII INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Methods and Data Collection ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Structure of the Research ............................................................................................................................................ 9 CHAPTER I: LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...................................... 11 1. NEGOTIATION FAILURES IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ............................................................................................ 11 1.1. The bargaining theory of war in the termination of intrastate conflicts ..................................... 12 1.2. Third-Party Intervention ................................................................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER II: PKK-TURKEY CONFLICT BACKGROUND AND HISTORY ............................................ 20 1. TURKEY’S KURDS: DEMOGRAPHY AND GEOGRAPHY .............................................................................................. 20 2. THE KURDISH QUESTION IN TURKEY ........................................................................................................................ 21 2.1. The Ottoman Era (until 1923) ........................................................................................................................ 22 2.2. The Early Republican Era (aka The One-Party Era, 1923 - 1943) .................................................. 23 2.3. The Multiparty Era (1946 - present) ............................................................................................................ 26 2.4. The Kurdish Question in the 2000s ............................................................................................................... 29 3. THE KURDISH NATIONAL MOVEMENT ..................................................................................................................... 35 3.1. The organization ................................................................................................................................................... 35 3.2. The Ideology ............................................................................................................................................................ 40 3.3. The Leadership ....................................................................................................................................................... 42 3.4. Competing Leadership Factions and Fragmentation ........................................................................... 45 4. HISTORY OF THE ARMED CONFLICT ........................................................................................................................... 47 4.1. Outset of confrontation (1984-1993) ........................................................................................................... 47 4.2. In the aftermath of the acknowledgment of the military defeat (1993-1999) .......................... 48 III 4.3. Capture of Öcalan and Deadlock of the Conflict (1999-2007) .......................................................... 51 4.4. Earlier Failed Peace Process (2007-2011) ................................................................................................ 52 CHAPTER III: THE THIRD ROUND OF PKK-TURKEY .......................................................................... 55 PEACE TALKS .................................................................................................................................................. 55 1. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................... 55 1.1. Onset of the third round of peace talks ....................................................................................................... 58 1.2. New and Revitalized Initiatives Take off ...................................................................................................
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