Evaluating the Opportunities for High Blend Liquid and Gaseous Biofuel
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Evaluating the opportunities for high blend liquid and gaseous biofuel penetration in Prepared for the UK Low CVP by Study Report in association with Version 1.1 Final December 2009 Evaluating the opportunities for high blend liquid & gaseous biofuel penetration in the UK Study Report Prepared for Low-CVP by in association with Author(s) Tom Parker, Sofia Girnary, Keith O’Connor Quality Control Alan Lewis Version 1.1 Final Date December 2009 File location \\Ttdc01\Company\TTR Projects\Current Projects\LowCVP Biofuels\Technical\reporti ng\LowCVP_biofuels_stu dy report_final v1.1.doc Last edited 09 December 2009 This report has been prepared for LowCVP. Transport & Travel Research Ltd cannot accept any responsibility for any use of or reliance on the contents of the report by any third party. ISOISO 9001 9001 REGISTEREDRegistered Firm FIRM GB2000157 Opportunities for high blend liquid and gaseous biofuel – Final Report CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Background and purpose of the report 1 Policy context 1 Study scope 1 Potential benefits 3 Costs 6 Effect of Discounting Fuel Duty 6 Effective vehicles and fuel combinations 8 Barriers and Recommendations 9 1 INTRODUCTION 13 1.1 Background and purpose 13 1.2 Fuels included in the study 13 1.3 Contents of this report 14 2 SECTOR ANALYSIS 15 2.1 Introduction 15 2.2 Factors affecting suitability for high-blend biofuels 15 2.3 Current status of the UK vehicle parc 20 2.4 Rationale for high-blend biofuels 33 2.5 Potential for GHG savings 35 3 DRIVERS, BARRIERS AND SUPPORT MECHANISMS 38 3.1 Introduction 38 3.2 Drivers 38 3.3 Relevant policies 40 3.4 Barriers 48 3.5 Support mechanisms 57 3.6 Conclusions 77 4 OPTIONS ASSESSMENT 78 4.1 Introduction 78 4.2 Method 78 4.3 Bus 80 4.4 HGV 93 4.5 MGV 106 4.6 LGV 113 4.7 Car 124 4.8 Emissions relevant to local air quality 136 Transport & Travel Research Ltd December 2009 Opportunities for high blend liquid and gaseous biofuel – Final Report 4.9 Analysis of fuel duty to promote uptake of high blend biofuels 139 4.10 Summary of results and conclusions 146 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 150 5.1 Introduction 150 5.2 Potential benefits and cost effectiveness 150 5.3 Overcoming barriers to market expansion 153 5.4 Vehicles and fuels 155 5.5 Future work 162 A1 OPTION ASSESSMENT INPUT DATA A1 A1.1 Toxic emissions 1 A1.2 Greenhouse gas emissions 2 A1.3 Fuel consumption data 4 A1.4 Fuel cost data 6 A1.5 Vehicle cost data 8 A2 BIODIESEL (FIRST GENERATION) A11 A2.1 Summary assessment 11 A2.2 Background 11 A2.3 Examples of high-blend use 13 A2.4 Environmental impacts 14 A3 BIOETHANOL A15 A3.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 15 A3.2 Background 15 A3.3 Availability of vehicle and examples of high-blend use 15 A3.4 Environmental impacts 18 A4 BIOMETHANE (COMPRESSED) A20 A4.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 20 A4.2 Background 20 A4.3 Vehicle availability and examples of high-blend use 21 A4.4 Environmental impacts 23 A5 BIOMETHANE (LIQUEFIED) A24 A5.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 24 A5.2 Background 24 Transport & Travel Research Ltd December 2009 Opportunities for high blend liquid and gaseous biofuel – Final Report A5.3 Vehicle availability and examples of high-blend use 25 A5.4 Environmental impacts 26 A6 PURE PLANT OIL A27 A6.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 27 A6.2 Background 27 A6.3 Vehicle availability and examples of high-blend use 29 A6.4 Environmental impacts 30 A7 BIODIESEL (SECOND GENERATION) A31 A7.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 31 A7.2 Background 31 A7.3 Examples of high-blend products 32 A7.4 Environmental impacts 33 A8 HYDROGEN A34 A8.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 34 A8.2 Background 34 A8.3 Examples of high-blend use 35 A8.4 Environmental impacts 35 A9 E-DIESEL A36 A9.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 36 A9.2 Background 36 A9.3 Examples of high-blend use 36 A9.4 Environmental impacts 37 A10 BIOBUTANOL A37 A10.1 Summary assessment of fuel and relevance 37 A10.2 Background 37 A10.3 Examples of high-blend use 37 A11 STUDY QUESTIONS A38 Transport & Travel Research Ltd December 2009 Opportunities for high blend liquid and gaseous biofuel – Final Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background and purpose of the report This study has been conducted by Transport & Travel Research Ltd (TTR), in association with Fleetsolve and commissioned by the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership (LowCVP). The purpose was to investigate: the opportunities for liquid and gaseous biofuels with blends greater than 10% by volume; their potential for penetration into the UK fuel mix; the associated commercial and environmental benefits as well as barriers, and; recommend the most appropriate mechanisms to stimulate take-up. LowCVP had identified that the use of these biofuels in high blend form could make a positive contribution to reducing emissions in the transport sector. However the potential and viability of this contribution or potential obstacles to the development of a high blend and gaseous biofuels market were not well understood. To better understand market deployment opportunities and barriers this study considers a wide range of factors including: vehicle duty cycles within major vehicle classes, blend limits and refuelling strategies and additional capital and operational costs. Policy context The Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sets a target for 10% renewable transport fuels use by 2020. Most of this target is expected to be met through supply of liquid biofuels of low blends of petrol and diesel. The development of EU regulations incorporated into CEN fuel standards provides a mechanism to support progress towards these targets. As road transport fuels contain steadily increasing proportions of biofuel, new vehicles will be designed to use these latest EN standard fuels. The UK is legally obliged to achieve the RED 2020 10% target. Current vehicle specifications only enable around 6.5% of the RED target to be achieved using low blends. High blend liquid and gaseous biofuels create potential pathways to achieving the 10% target as do other mechanisms such as hydrogenated vegetable oils. Encouraging and supporting the implementation of high-blend biofuel may offer a suitable, effective option to deliver the RED targets and further decarbonise transport fuels. This study has sought to identify near term options, the contribution which high blend biofuels could make to the required carbon reductions and mechanisms to stimulate market expansion. Study scope The study has assessed the status of current and near-market fuels including availability and practicability of use and compatibly with vehicles. It has estimated the Transport & Travel Research Ltd Page 1 December 2009 Opportunities for high blend liquid and gaseous biofuel – Final Report potential for GHG emissions reductions through assessing the use of various fuel types in different vehicle classes. Well to wheel lifecycle GHG emissions for different biofuels have been derived from RED default values. The current legislative, policy and fuel taxation environment has also been reviewed and summarised. The information used in the study has been obtained from a limited number of trials in the UK and experience from overseas plus various literature and other resources. Existing models for specific fuels and vehicles have also been used and further modelling conducted to meet the purpose of this study. The study has reviewed the costs, performance and impacts of 13 different fuels: • Euro V diesel • bioethanol ED85 • Euro V petrol • Biomethane (compressed) • biodiesel B5 • Biomethane (liquefied) • biodiesel B30 • Pure Plant Oil (PPO) • biodiesel B50 • Biomass To Liquids (BTL) • biodiesel B100 • Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil • Bioethanol E5 (HVO) Suitable fuels have been assessed for use in vehicles in 8 classes: • Car • Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) • Light Good Vehicle (LGV) rigid small • Bus • HGV rigid large • Medium Goods Vehicle (MGV) • HGV articulated small • HGV articulated large In total 72, vehicle-fuel combinations have been assessed. For each type of vehicle considered the impact of different vehicle/fuel options is based on estimated numbers of vehicles in each class for which switching to high-blend biofuel operation is possible in the medium term. This takes into account the practicality of supplying high-blend biofuels to different parts of the UK vehicle parc, based on existing fuelling infrastructure and vehicle re-fuelling practices. For example, with HGV the proportion of vehicle in each target fleet are based on the number of vehicles registered to owners with HGV fleets of over 50 vehicles, because these are very likely to practice own-tank fuelling. An assumption has been made that the same proportion will apply for MGV fleets. For local buses about half of all vehicles operating services in Passenger Transport Executive (PTE) areas have been assumed. Less ambitious targets are used for the LGV and car sectors (5% of total vehicles), due to the reported difficulties of fuel supply industry to service public forecourts. The actual market proportions used in the analysis are shown in the table below. Transport & Travel Research Ltd Page 2 December 2009 Opportunities for high blend liquid and gaseous biofuel – Final Report Vehicle parc proportions used in the analysis No of No of vehicles % considered for Vehicle sector biofuelled (2007/2008) biofuels use vehicles HGV artic. large 1,12,255 21% 23,541 HGV artic. small 9,699 21% 2,034 HGV rigid large 72,662 21% 15,238 HGV rigid small 100,443 23% 23,140 MGV 151,164 20% 30,233 Bus (local services) 31,184 20% 6,237 LGV 3,187,000 10% 318,700 Car 27,000,000 5% 1,350,000 Total 30,664,407 5.8% 1,769,123 Each combination of vehicle and biofuel has been compared to the baseline cost to an operator of a vehicle using conventional fuels.