DOCSLIB.ORG

Theory of Change Primer

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Theory of Change Primer Theory of Change Primer A STAP Advisory Document November 2020 LEAD STAP AUTHOR: Mark Stafford Smith STAP CONTRIBUTORS: Rosie Cooney, Graciela Metternicht, Blake Ratner, Jamidu Katima, Saleem Ali, and Rosina Bierbaum STAP SECRETARIAT CONTRIBUTORS: Christopher Whaley and Guadalupe Durón SUGGESTED CITATION: Stafford Smith, M. 2020. Theory of Change Primer, A STAP Advisory Document. Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel to the Global Environment Facility. Washington, D.C. COPYRIGHT: This work is shared under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivative Works License. ABOUT STAP: The Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) provides independent scientific and technical advice to the GEF on its strategies, programs and projects. https://stapgef.org ABOUT GEF: The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was established on the eve of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit to help tackle our planet’s most pressing environmental problems. Since then, the GEF has provided close to $20.5 billion in grants and mobilized an additional $112 billion in co-financing for more than 4,800 projects in 170 countries. Through its Small Grants Programme, the GEF has provided support to nearly 24,000 civil society and community initiatives in 133 countries. http://www.thegef.org COPY EDITOR: Emily Youers DESIGN AND LAYOUT: Phoenix Design Aid A/S, Denmark COVER PHOTOS: Ron Ramtang, Marius Dobilas, Marion Smith – Byers, Lucy Brown, Tati Nova photo Mexico, Jimmy Tran, Uwe Bergwitz, by VLADGRIN Theory of Change Primer A STAP Advisory Document November 2020 CONTENTS FOREWORD ............................................................................................................................. 4 GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................ 5 ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................................... 6 1. A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THEORY OF CHANGE ................................................................... 7 1.1 What is a Theory of Change? ................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Why develop a Theory of Change? ....................................................................................... 8 1.3 When should a Theory of Change exercise be carried out? ................................................. 9 1.4 How to develop a Theory of Change ................................................................................... 10 1.5 Project or program-level Theory of Change? ...................................................................... 11 1.6 What to do with a Theory of Change after the design phase ............................................. 11 1.7 How to assess a Theory of Change ...................................................................................... 12 1.8 Getting help with a Theory of Change ................................................................................ 13 2. SHORT GUIDE TO DEVELOPING A THEORY OF CHANGE ............................................... 14 2.1 Before developing a Theory of Change............................................................................... 14 2.2 Steps in a Theory of Change process .................................................................................. 16 2.3 After developing a Theory of Change ................................................................................. 17 2.4 Summary guide to carrying out a Theory of Change process ............................................. 18 APPENDIX 1: SOME FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ...................................................... 24 Does a ToC really matter? .......................................................................................................... 24 What’s the difference between a ToC and a logframe (or a results chain)? ............................... 24 Is ToC just another name for the whole project design? ........................................................... 24 Isn’t the project identification stage too early to expect a ToC? ............................................... 24 Is a program-level ToC just the sum of the ToCs for all the projects in it? ................................ 24 Can I have one ToC for a load of similar projects? .................................................................... 25 What if we just can’t agree on barriers, enablers, assumptions or risks? ................................... 25 What if some of the change processes are political? ................................................................. 25 What if the evidence base is slim? ............................................................................................. 25 2 How long should a ToC take? .................................................................................................... 25 Does a ToC require both a visual and a narrative form? ............................................................ 26 What if stakeholders change from the time of project identification to implementation? ....... 26 Do I need to map the power and influence of stakeholders? ................................................... 26 Where in the process of ToC design should I include leverage with other initiatives that are relevant or complementary to the vision of the ToC? .................................................. 26 APPENDIX 2: A SHORT THEORY OF CHANGE FOR THEORY OF CHANGE ......................... 27 Situation analysis ........................................................................................................................ 27 Logic narrative ............................................................................................................................ 27 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 28 Monitoring, evaluation and learning .......................................................................................... 28 APPENDIX 3: SOME EXAMPLES OF THEORY OF CHANGE PRODUCTS .............................. 30 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 36 3 By Uwe Bergwitz FOREWORD This document provides a synthesis of guidance anonymous correspondent commented: “ToC is specifically aimed at Theory of Change (ToC) challenging as it requires you to deconstruct your processes in a Global Environment Facility (GEF) assumptions and the mini-outcomes towards goal context, as part of a growing suite of Scientific and achievement in a much more detailed way. It takes Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) documents that a lot of practice to be able to use the tool/process support the design of interventions in meeting the in a comprehensive and intelligent way.” This is GEF’s goal to apply leading practices to deliver very true, but as articulated in an Annie E. Casey transformational change. ToC interacts with many Foundation publication: “Communities have too other elements of project and program design. In much at stake to engage in work without a clearly this primer, these interactions are only discussed defined purpose.”2 This primer aims to structure the briefly in terms of their implications for ToC and complexity of ToC so that significant improvement cross-references to other STAP, GEF or external in outcomes can be achieved with as little pain as sources are often provided for more detail. possible. In drawing up this primer, STAP spoke with diverse practitioners in the GEF family, whose inputs were greatly appreciated. A wide range of sources, online and in the peer-reviewed literature, were also reviewed; more details can be found in the companion Supplement to this primer (a short literature review and annotated bibliography).1 One 1 Stafford Smith, M. 2020. Theory of Change Supplement: A short literature review and annotated bibliography, A STAP Advisory Document. Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel to the Global 2 Organizational Research Services, Theory of Change: A Practical Environment Facility. Washington, DC. Available at Tool for Action, Results and Learning (Baltimore, Annie E. Casey https://stapgef.org/theory-change-primer Foundation, 2004), p. 39. 4 GLOSSARY Some terms are used in subtly different ways in input. Any resources, skills, funding, personnel, different Theory of Change guides. There is no thinking, etc., provided by an intervention to absolute standard of right and wrong, but in this enable its activities and deliver its outputs. primer the following terms are used consistently as follows: intervention. General term that covers program- and project-level activities enabled by Global activity. An action taken in an intervention that Environment Facility investments and entrained leads – independently or together with other resources. activities – to its outputs. At the program level, activities include the development and outcome. A flow-on effect outside the intervention coordination of projects as well as the pursuit expected as a result of the outputs interacting of additional program-level actions, such as with events and activities in the wider world. knowledge management or regional and value Outcomes may be short or long term, chain engagement. decreasingly within the sphere of influence of the intervention (see figure I). In some guides, assumption. A belief that is accepted as true or outcomes
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Using Theory of Change to Design and Evaluate Public Health Interventions: a Systematic Review Erica Breuer1*, Lucy Lee2, Mary De Silva2 and Crick Lund1
    Breuer et al. Implementation Science (2016) 11:63 DOI 10.1186/s13012-016-0422-6 SYSTEMATIC REVIEW Open Access Using theory of change to design and evaluate public health interventions: a systematic review Erica Breuer1*, Lucy Lee2, Mary De Silva2 and Crick Lund1 Abstract Background: Despite the increasing popularity of the theory of change (ToC) approach, little is known about the extent to which ToC has been used in the design and evaluation of public health interventions. This review aims to determine how ToCs have been developed and used in the development and evaluation of public health interventions globally. Methods: We searched for papers reporting the use of “theory of change” in the development or evaluation of public health interventions in databases of peer-reviewed journal articles such as Scopus, Pubmed, PsychInfo, grey literature databases, Google and websites of development funders. We included papers of any date, language or study design. Both abstracts and full text papers were double screened. Data were extracted and narratively and quantitatively summarised. Results: A total of 62 papers were included in the review. Forty-nine (79 %) described the development of ToC, 18 (29 %) described the use of ToC in the development of the intervention and 49 (79 %) described the use of ToC in the evaluation of the intervention. Although a large number of papers were included in the review, their descriptions of the ToC development and use in intervention design and evaluation lacked detail. Conclusions: The use of the ToC approach is widespread in the public health literature. Clear reporting of the ToC process and outputs is important to strengthen the body of literature on practical application of ToC in order to develop our understanding of the benefits and advantages of using ToC.
    [Show full text]
  • Ids Working Paper
    IDS WORKING PAPER Volume 2017 No 499 Theories of Change for Promoting Empowerment and Accountability in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings Duncan Green October 2017 This paper is published in association with the Action for Empowerment and Accountability Research Programme (A4EA). Action for Empowerment and Accountability Research Programme In a world shaped by rapid change, the Action for Empowerment and Accountability Research programme focuses on fragile, conflict and violence affected settings to ask how social and political action for empowerment and accountability emerges in these contexts, what pathways it takes, and what impacts it has. A4EA is implemented by a consortium consisting of: the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), the Accountability Research Center (ARC), the Collective for Social Science Research (CSSR), the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS), Itad, Oxfam GB, and the Partnership for African Social and Governance Research (PASGR). Research focuses on five countries: Egypt, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Pakistan. A4EA is funded by UK aid from the UK government. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the official policies of our funder. Theories of Change for Promoting Empowerment and Accountability in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings Duncan Green IDS Working Paper 499 © Institute of Development Studies 2017 ISSN: 2040-0209 ISBN: 978-1-78118-405-9 A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library. This is an Open Access paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 International licence, which permits downloading and sharing provided the original authors and source are credited – but the work is not used for commercial purposes.
    [Show full text]
  • Theory of Change
    THEORY OF CHANGE UNDAF CAMPANION GUIDANCE 1 ! UNDAF COMPANION GUIDANCE: THEORY OF CHANGE TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 3 ................................................................................................................................. 2. THE CONCEPT 4 What is a theory of change? ............................................................................................................................. 4 Purpose: Why use a theory of change? .............................................................................................................. 4 Methodology: How to develop a theory of change? .............................................................................................. 4 Key principles for developing a theory of change ................................................................................................ 5 Key steps for developing a theory of change ...................................................................................................... 5 3. MOVING FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE ................................................................................. 6 Step 1: Focus ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Step 2: Change analysis .................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Methodological Brief No.2: Theory of Change
    Methodological Briefs Impact Evaluation No. 2 Theory of Change Patricia Rogers UNICEF OFFICE OF RESEARCH The Office of Research is UNICEF’s dedicated research arm. Its prime objectives are to improve international understanding of issues relating to children’s rights and to help facilitate full implementation of the Convention on the Rights of the Child across the world. The Office of Research aims to set out a comprehensive framework for research and knowledge within the organization, in support of UNICEF’s global programmes and policies, and works with partners to make policies for children evidence-based. Publications produced by the Office are contributions to a global debate on children and child rights issues and include a wide range of opinions. The views expressed are those of the authors and/or editors and are published in order to stimulate further dialogue on impact evaluation methods. They do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF. OFFICE OF RESEARCH METHODOLOGICAL BRIEFS UNICEF Office of Research Methodological Briefs are intended to share contemporary research practice, methods, designs, and recommendations from renowned researchers and evaluators. The primary audience is UNICEF staff who conduct, commission or interpret research and evaluation findings to make decisions about programming, policy and advocacy. This brief has undergone an internal peer review. The text has not been edited to official publication standards and UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. Extracts from this publication may be freely reproduced with due acknowledgement. Requests to utilize larger portions or the full publication should be addressed to the Communication Unit at [email protected] To consult and download the Methodological Briefs, please visit http://www.unicef-irc.org/KM/IE/ For readers wishing to cite this document we suggest the following form: Rogers, P.
    [Show full text]
  • Oxfam Strategic Plan, 2013-2019 Cover Photo: Caroline Gluck the POWER of PEOPLE AGAINST POVERTY 3 OXFAM STRATEGIC PLAN, 2013 – 2019
    Oxfam Strategic Plan, 2013-2019 Cover photo: Caroline Gluck THE POWER OF PEOPLE AGAINST POVERTY 3 OXFAM STRATEGIC PLAN, 2013 – 2019 Contents 1. foreword Foreword 5 Oxfam’s Vision 6 The power of people against poverty 7 Oxfam’s guiding principles 10 2. SIX GOALS TO CHANGE OUR WORLD Introduction 13 Goal 1: The Right to be Heard – People claiming their right to a better life 14 Goal 2: Advancing gender justice 15 Goal 3: Saving lives, now and in the future 16 Goal 4: Sustainable food 17 Goal 5: Fair sharing of natural resources 18 Goal 6: Financing for development and universal essential services 19 3. six goals to change the way we work Introduction 22 Operational Goal 1: Creating a worldwide influencing network 23 Operational Goal 2: Program quality, monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) 24 Operational Goal 3: Strengthening accountability 25 Operational Goal 4: Investing in people 26 Operational Goal 5: Cost effectiveness 27 Operational Goal 6: Income strategy 28 4. benchmarks and budget Measuring the impact of our work for people in poverty 30 Funding the ambition for poverty reduction in this Strategic Plan 30 Glossary of abbreviations 31 1. foreword Photo: Rachel Corner THE POWER OF PEOPLE AGAINST POVERTY 5 OXFAM STRATEGIC PLAN, 2013 – 2019 Oxfam has a vision: nine billion people will live equitably There are plenty of reasons for hope. Rejection of the ‘old’ and free from the injustice of poverty, on a planet that has economic growth paradigm opens crucial opportunities the natural resources to sustain them. for new thinking and approaches that favour a just and sustainable future.
    [Show full text]
  • Learning from the Women's Empowerment Index
    ‘ Learning from the Women’s Empowerment Index: Case Studies on the Income and Time Domains Columbia University Workshop Team 2015-2016 Lisa Bacon Nicole Figot Krista Jorstad Aly Marczynski Julia Nethero Albane Sautory Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ 4 Acronyms ....................................................................................................................... 5 List of Figures ................................................................................................................ 6 List of Boxes ................................................................................................................... 6 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER 1 Project Framework and Background ...................................................... 9 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 10 The Hunger Project: An Organizational Overview ................................................. 11 The Hunger Project’s Programs ................................................................................ 12 The Hunger Project’s Monitoring & Evaluation System .......................................... 12 The Women’s Empowerment Index .......................................................................... 13 Research Framework and Background
    [Show full text]
  • Social Change: Mechanisms and Metaphors
    Social Change: Mechanisms and Metaphors Kieran Healy∗ August 1998 ∗Department of Sociology, 2–N–2 Green Hall, Princeton University, Princeton N.J. 08544. Email at [email protected]. Please do not cite or distribute without permis- sion. Thanks to Miguel Centeno, Sara Curran, Paul DiMaggio, Patricia Fernandez–Kelly, Frank Karel, Lynn Robinson, Brian Steensland, Steve Tepper, Bruce Western and Bob Wuthnow for suggestions, discussion and comments. Research for this paper was funded by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. 1 2 Kieran Healy Contents Introduction 3 The Varying Fortunes of Social Change 4 The Legacy of the Nineteenth Century . 4 Social Change as Modernization . 5 The Analysis of Change 8 Prediction . 8 Metaphors of change . 11 Organic development . 11 Ecological competition and selection . 11 Diffusion and contagion . 12 Path dependence and hysteresis . 13 Complexity and self–organization . 14 Mechanisms and causes . 15 Sources of Social Change 16 Demography . 16 Technology . 17 Economic change . 20 Planned change . 21 Organizations . 23 Institutions . 25 Culture . 28 Conclusion 31 Appendix: An Annotated Bibliography 34 Demography and social change . 34 Technology and change . 38 Economic and political change . 41 Planned change and community change . 49 Organizational change . 54 Gender and social change . 62 Institutions and change . 66 Culture and social change . 69 Complexity theory . 76 Social theory and social change . 80 Social Change: mechanisms and metaphors 3 Introduction Good social science should be able to explain how and why things change. Questions about change can be posed directly, as when we wonder whether religious observance is declining in America, or try to explain why large corporations first appeared at the end of the nineteenth century.
    [Show full text]
  • Theory of Change Primer
    GEF/STAP/C.57/Inf.04 December 11, 2019 57th GEF Council Meeting December 17 - 19, 2019 Washington, D.C. THEORY OF CHANGE PRIMER Theory of Change Primer A STAP document December 2019 Theory of Change primer A STAP document Foreword This document provides a synthesis of guidance specifically aimed at carrying out Theory of Change processes in a GEF context, as part of a growing suite of STAP documents designed to support the design of interventions within GEF’s goal to apply leading practices to deliver transformational change. Theory of Change interacts with many other elements of project and program design, which this document is not intended to replicate, so these interactions are only discussed briefly in terms of their implications for ToC, and are often cross-referenced to other STAP, GEF or external sources for more details. In drawing up this primer, STAP spoke with diverse practitioners in the GEF family, whose inputs were greatly appreciated; a wide range of sources, on-line and in the peer-reviewed literature, were also reviewed, more details about which can be found in the companion Supplement to this Primer (a short literature review and annotated bibliography)1. As one correspondent commented, “ToC is challenging as it requires you to deconstruct your assumptions and the mini-outcomes towards goal achievement in a much more detailed way. It takes a lot of practice to be able to use the tool/process in a comprehensive and intelligent way.” This is very true, but as The Annie E. Casey Foundation says bluntly, “Communities have too much at stake to engage in work without a clearly defined purpose.” This primer aims to structure the complexity of ToC so that significant improvement in outcomes can be achieved for as little pain as possible.
    [Show full text]
  • Examples of Theories of Change Collated and Annotated by Isabel Vogel (Consultant) and Zoe Stephenson, DFID EVD, July 2012
    Appendix 3: Examples of Theories of Change Collated and annotated by Isabel Vogel (consultant) and Zoe Stephenson, DFID EVD, July 2012 Contents Examples of Theories of Change ...................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1 Types of theory of change ....................................................................................................... 2 1.2 DFID Evaluation Department Draft Checklist for theories of change (July 2012) ..................... 3 2. DFID Country and Sector Theories of Change .............................................................................. 4 2.1 DFID Programme: Theory of Change for Improving the Quality of General Education in Ethiopia ......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 DFID Programme: Theory of Change for India Poorest States Inclusive Growth Programme (PSIG) ......................................................................................................................................... 11 2.3 DFID Programme Theory of Change: Roads in East DRC .................................................... 17 3. Generic causal pathways for policy areas ................................................................................... 29 3.1 DFID How To Note: Theory of Change for interventions
    [Show full text]
  • Supporting Young People to Make Change Happen a Review of Theories of Change
    A joint working paper by ActKnowledge and Oxfam SUPPORTING YOUNG PEOPLE TO MAKE CHANGE HAPPEN A REVIEW OF THEORIES OF CHANGE SYNTHESIS REPORT FEBRUARY 2013 Written by Eoin Collins and Heléne Clark Supported By TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 2. Understanding of and Approach to the Brief ................................................................... 1 2.1 Theory of Change: Defining the Concept ..................................................................... 1 2.2 Framing the Research ................................................................................................. 2 3. Theories of Change Underpinning Support for Youth to Create Change ........................... 3 3.1 Young People Participate in Political, Policy and Other Decision-Making Structures .... 6 3.2 Young People are Civically Engaged and Active in their Communities ......................... 8 3.3 Young People Engage Specifically on Positive Change through Youth-led Initiatives or Effective Inter-generational Partnerships........................................................................ 10 3.4 Young People have Leadership Skills to Work at Local and Global Levels .................. 16 4. Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 19 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Use of Theories of Change in Media and Governance Programmes
    The Use of Theories of Change in Media and Governance Programmes Final Report to SDC 10 November 2019 By Christoph Spurk and Dr. Carmen Koch IAM Institute of Applied Media Studies Winterthur The Use of Theories of Change in Media and Governance Programmes Final Report to SDC © Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC 2019 All rights reserved. Reproduction, copy, transmission, or translation of any part of this publication may be made only under the following conditions: • with the prior permission of the publisher; or • with a licence from the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd., 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE, UK, or • from another national licensing agency; or • under the terms set out below. This publication is copyright, but may be reproduced by any method without fee for teaching or nonprofit purposes, but not for resale. Formal permission is required for all such uses, but normally will be granted immediately. For copying in any other circumstances, or for re-use in other publications, or for translation or adaptation, prior written permission must be obtained from the publisher and a fee may be payable. Contacts SDC Network on Democratisation, Decentralisation and Local Governance Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) Democratisation, Decentralisation and Local Governance Tel: +41 (0)58 462 12 01 E-mail: [email protected] www.shareweb.ch/site/DDLGN Institute of Applied Media Studies (IAM) Christoph Spurk and Carmen Koch Institute of Applied Media Studies (IAM) Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) Theaterstrasse 15c CH 8401 Winterthur Switzerland Email: [email protected]; [email protected] www.zhaw.ch/linguistik/iam/institute-of-applied-media-studies 1 Content I Introduction ................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Theory of Change Paper, UNICEF Strategic Plan, 2018–2021 Realizing the Rights of Every Child, Especially the Most Disadvantaged
    UNICEF/2017/EB/11 Distr.: General 18 July 2017 Original: English For information United Nations Children’s Fund Executive Board Second regular session 2017 12-15 September 2017 Item 4 of the provisional agenda* Theory of Change Paper, UNICEF Strategic Plan, 2018–2021 Realizing the rights of every child, especially the most disadvantaged Contents I. Theory of Change overview ........................................................................................................... 3 A. Introduction: theories of change and the UNICEF Strategic Plan, 2018-2021 ....................... 3 B. Overview of the Theory of Change ........................................................................................ 3 C. Goal Areas (outcomes) ........................................................................................................... 6 D. Links to the Sustainable Development Goals and Convention on the Rights of the Child ..... 7 E. Outputs ................................................................................................................................... 8 F. Risks and assumptions .......................................................................................................... 11 G. Implementation strategies (HOWs) ...................................................................................... 15 H. Organizational performance enablers ................................................................................... 18 II. Goal Area 1 theory of change ...................................................................................................
    [Show full text]