Social Change: Mechanisms and Metaphors Kieran Healy∗ August 1998 ∗Department of Sociology, 2–N–2 Green Hall, Princeton University, Princeton N.J. 08544. Email at
[email protected]. Please do not cite or distribute without permis- sion. Thanks to Miguel Centeno, Sara Curran, Paul DiMaggio, Patricia Fernandez–Kelly, Frank Karel, Lynn Robinson, Brian Steensland, Steve Tepper, Bruce Western and Bob Wuthnow for suggestions, discussion and comments. Research for this paper was funded by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. 1 2 Kieran Healy Contents Introduction 3 The Varying Fortunes of Social Change 4 The Legacy of the Nineteenth Century . 4 Social Change as Modernization . 5 The Analysis of Change 8 Prediction . 8 Metaphors of change . 11 Organic development . 11 Ecological competition and selection . 11 Diffusion and contagion . 12 Path dependence and hysteresis . 13 Complexity and self–organization . 14 Mechanisms and causes . 15 Sources of Social Change 16 Demography . 16 Technology . 17 Economic change . 20 Planned change . 21 Organizations . 23 Institutions . 25 Culture . 28 Conclusion 31 Appendix: An Annotated Bibliography 34 Demography and social change . 34 Technology and change . 38 Economic and political change . 41 Planned change and community change . 49 Organizational change . 54 Gender and social change . 62 Institutions and change . 66 Culture and social change . 69 Complexity theory . 76 Social theory and social change . 80 Social Change: mechanisms and metaphors 3 Introduction Good social science should be able to explain how and why things change. Questions about change can be posed directly, as when we wonder whether religious observance is declining in America, or try to explain why large corporations first appeared at the end of the nineteenth century.