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Directors' Report 32 Directors’ Report Directors’ Report I. ECONOMIC BACKDROP AND BANKING ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC European countries including Russia, Italy, with a fair distribution of rainfall across Hungary among others and escalation of major parts of country in 2018. SCENARIO sanction issue in Iran are other key risks Global economic activity gathered that could dampen the growth prospects. As a result of normal rainfall during monsoon momentum in the second half of last year 2017 and various policy initiatives taken by and it continues to grow in 2018. World Another major development having an the Government, the country has witnessed GDP growth recovered to an estimated impact on global economy is the oil record foodgrain production at 279.50 3.8% in 2017 compared to 3.2% in the price which has recovered to over US$ million tonnes for FY2018, 1.6% higher previous year. Both the developed and 80 per barrel recently. Looking ahead, than the previous record achieved in FY2017 the developing countries performed well, geo-political tensions in middle-east with (275.1 million tonnes). The production growing at 2.3% and 4.8% respectively. probable sanctions on Russia may affect of rice, pulses and coarse cereals touched The US economy grew more than expected oil price dynamics. new highs during the year, but wheat against the backdrop of abatement of production declined. past exchange rate appreciation impact and oil price movement coupled with INDIA’S ECONOMIC Gross value added in the industrial sector support from good consumption growth at basic prices decelerated to 6.8% and rebound in investment. Euro area SCENARIO in FY2018 from 9.8% in FY2017. The also surprised positively witnessing its India’s economic growth is expected to slowdown in FY2018 was due to a sharp fastest pace of growth in a decade and gather momentum in FY2019, benefitting deceleration in mining and quarrying. In the surpassing the US growth in 2017. The from a conducive domestic and global mining sector, contraction was on account uncertainty surrounding Brexit weighed environment. The factors that will help in of slowdown in its key constituents such on the UK economy, however it recovered achieving 7.4% GDP growth in FY2019 as coal and natural gas production, and in the final months of the year. In Japan, compared to 6.7% in FY2018 are: (i) the decline in crude oil output. The growth improved global demand for technological troubles relating to implementation of of manufacturing, on the other hand, products stimulated investment in high- the GST have been sorted out, (ii) credit improved with the waning of the transient end sectors including auto, machinery off-take has improved and is becoming effects of GST. including robots and semi-conductors. increasingly broad-based, (iii) large resource mobilisation from the primary On the external front, the current account Among the emerging and developing world, market strengthening investment activity, deficit (CAD) increased to 2% of GDP economic contraction ended in Russia and (iv) the process of recapitalisation of PSBs (US$ 13.5 billion) in Q3 FY2018 from 1.4% Brazil, thereby adding to growth. However, and resolution of distressed assets under of GDP (US$ 8.0 billion) a year ago. For despite improvement in oil dynamics Saudi the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code may FY2018, we believe CAD would be around Arabia witnessed negative growth owing improve the business and investment 1.8% of GDP compared to 0.7% of GDP to low oil output and sluggish performance environment, (v) global trade growth has in FY2017. This slight increase in CAD of non-oil sector. Even Mexico suffered accelerated, which should encourage during FY2018 is due to US$ 156.8 billion against the backdrop of uncertainty exports and reduce the drag from net trade balance, which is at a 5-year high. surrounding NAFTA and presidential exports, and (vi) the thrust on rural and elections. Meanwhile, China witnessed its infrastructure sectors in the Union Budget BANKING ENVIRONMENT first annual acceleration since 2010 with 2018-19 could rejuvenate rural demand export growing at their quickest pace in and also encourage private investment. FY2018 remained an eventful year for the four years. banking fraternity. Asset quality, resolution Inflation, both CPI and WPI remain under of stressed assets and muted credit growth India’s GDP growth is expected to have control for entire FY2018. Average CPI in H1 continued as major challenges moderated to 6.6% in FY2018. However, was 3.6% in FY2018 compared to 4.5% in for most banks during the current year. this is likely to be transitory. Meanwhile, FY2017, while the corresponding figures Higher NPAs impacted interest income Government reforms continue to provide for WPI are 2.9% and 1.8%, respectively. adversely and led to elevated provisions, support to aggregate demand. Assuming a normal monsoon and no thus putting pressure on the profitability of major exogenous/policy shocks, CPI is banks. Further, some Public Sector Banks Looking ahead, as per IMF projections expected to remain in the range of 4.0- (PSBs) have been put under the Prompt the world economy is poised to grow at 4.5% for FY2019 and even go below 3.5% Corrective Action (PCA) framework of RBI, 3.9% in 2018 as well as 2019. However, for some months in Q3 FY2019. Major which puts restrictions on key areas viz. looming threat of trade wars against the risks to the inflation outlook are crude oil dividend payment, branch expansion, etc. background of increase in tariffs by the US and other commodity prices and fiscal and retaliation by China is one of the risks slippage at both the central and state After remaining depressed for nearly to global growth. World trade is recovering levels. two years, the bank credit built upon the smartly in 2017, registering a growth uptick that started around June, 2017 and of around 10% and 11% for exports For the third consecutive year, Indian expanded in double digits from December, and imports respectively, but rising Meteorological Department (IMD) has 2017. The resurgence in credit growth was protectionism and trade war can threaten forecasted that monsoon would be observed across bank groups, though the trade and economic growth. In addition, “Normal” or around 97% of Long Period pace of growth continues to vary among uncertainty surrounding elections in many Average (LPA) with an error of ± 5% and bank groups. The YoY growth rate of bank 33 credit for ASCBs was 10% as on 30th PSBs for meeting their regulatory capital OUTLOOK March, 2018. Credit extended by private requirement and growth needs. sector banks is higher than PSBs, while The coming years will be very challenging credit extended by foreign banks has State Bank of India has merged its five for the banking system as a whole. The returned to positive territory after a long associate banks and Bharatiya Mahila operating environment has become contraction. Credit to sectors is becoming Bank Ltd. with itself from 1st April, increasingly complex. Although, resolution broad-based, with off-take by industry 2017. This is the first such large scale of stressed assets has progressed turning positive after a protracted period consolidation in the Indian Banking satisfactorily, the final outcome will take of contraction. Due to the continued industry. With this merger, your Bank is some more time to reflect in the P&L. This stress in other sectors, most of the banks ranked at the 54 position among the top delay is mainly because new laws take made efforts to lend to retail sector, which 1,000 global banks, as per the global some time to mature in practice. However, registered reasonably good growth, with ranking by “The Banker” in July 2017. the structural transformation of banks most banks expanding their retail loan This merger helped your Bank to reduce must move beyond the NPA resolution book. However, with resolutions through 1,805 branches and rationalised 244 and address other pressing issues, National Companies Law Tribunal (NCLT) administrative offices, which saves around such as frauds, customer retention and expected to gather momentum and ` 1,099 crore per annum. We believe that servicing, human resource, cyber security global growth and private investment in the long-term benefits of the merger and governance. India beginning to pick up, green shoots will significantly outweigh the near term of credit demand have started appearing. challenges and the efficiencies generated The policy initiatives over the last four On the other hand, the aggregate deposits through the merger will help the Bank to years have gathered momentum with far growth (YoY) continued to decline and is sustain the mission of being an enduring reaching structural transformation in all at 54-year low of 6.2%, due to the base value creator. sectors. GST is moving to the next phase effect and currency withdrawal by public. with the introduction of e-ways module. Meanwhile, under the Pradhan Mantri Infrastructure growth has notably picked During the last quarter of FY2018, the Jan Dhan Yojna (PMJDY), banks have in roads, civil aviation and railways. bond yields continued to firm up which opened 31.4 crore accounts with Digitalisation will gather pace as evident hit severely the banks’ balance sheet, due ` 79,012 crore deposits (around 6% of from the Report of the Taskforce on to the mark-to-market losses incurred the total demand deposits of the ASCBs) Artificial Intelligence. It is unlikely that by the banks in their investments. In the till 4th April, 2018 deposited in their banks will escape these transformations. post-demonetisation period, banks have accounts. Out of the 31.4 crore accounts, Digitalisation of banking process will invested a huge amount of money in PSBs have opened 25.4 crore accounts, continue during the next year creating new Government bonds due to tepid credit RRBs have opened 5.1 crore accounts, improved service experience.
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