Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy Hamburg (ed.) osC e 21 Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg / IFSH (ed.) OSCE Yearbook 2015 Yearbook on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) • OSCE Yearbook osCe 2015 Nomos BUC_OSCE_2015_2982-1_HC.indd 1 02.12.15 10:04 Articles of the OSCE Yearbook are indexed in World Affairs Online (WAO), accessible via the IREON portal. Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available on the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de ISBN 978-3-8487-2982-1 (Print) 978-3-8452-7365-5 (ePDF) British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-3-8487-2982-1 (Print) 978-3-8452-7365-5 (ePDF) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg/IFSH (ed.) OSCE Yearbook 2015 Yearbook on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) IFSH 460 p. Includes bibliographic references. ISBN 978-3-8487-2982-1 (Print) 978-3-8452-7365-5 (ePDF) 1. Edition 2016 © Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, Germany 2016. Printed and bound in Germany. This work is subject to copyright. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers. Under § 54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use a fee is payable to “Verwertungs gesellschaft Wort”, Munich. No responsibility for loss caused to any individual or organization acting on or refrain- ing from action as a result of the material in this publication can be accepted by Nomos or the editor. BUT_OSCE_2015_2982-1.indd 4 07.03.16 10:35 Contents Lamberto Zannier Foreword by the Secretary General of the OSCE 9 Ursel Schlichting Preface 13 I. States of Affairs – Affairs of State Focus: The OSCE and European Security 40 Years after Helsinki Frank-Walter Steinmeier Not a Concert of Powers, But an Ensemble of Peace: What We Can Learn from Helsinki for European Security in the 21st Century 23 Reinhard Mutz The CSCE up to the End of the Cold War: What It Achieved and Where It Failed 35 Matthew Rojansky The Geopolitics of European Security and Co-operation: The Consequences of US-Russia Tension 55 Mikhail Troitskiy Russia and the West in the European Security Architecture: Clash of Interests or a Security Dilemma? 67 David J. Galbreath On Reinvigorating European Security 81 Maxime Lefebvre The Ukraine Crisis and the Role of the OSCE from a French Perspective 91 5 The OSCE Participating States: Domestic Developments and Multilateral Commitment David Aprasidze Consolidation in Georgia: Democracy or Power? 107 Ghaffor J. Mirzoev The Relationship between Religious and National Elements in the Social Consciousness of Tajiks 117 Thomas Kunze/Michail Logvinov Islamist Threats to Central Asia 125 Arne C. Seifert The Political Requirements for IS Prevention in Central Asia 137 Jenny Nordman Nationalism, EU Integration, and Stability in the Western Balkans 151 Daniela Pisoiu/Reem Ahmed Capitalizing on Fear: The Rise of Right-Wing Populist Movements in Western Europe 165 II. Responsibilities, Instruments, Mechanisms, and Procedures Conflict Prevention and Dispute Settlement Jennifer Croft Non-Citizens in Estonia and Latvia: Time for Change in Changing Times? 181 Gyorgy Szabo The OSCE Project Co-ordinator in Uzbekistan 197 Samuel Goda The Current and Future Challenges for the OSCE Mission to Moldova 205 6 Focus on the Ukraine Crisis Heidi Tagliavini Mediation in the Crisis in Eastern Ukraine up to 23 June 2015 217 Claus Neukirch The Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine in Its Second Year: Ongoing OSCE Conflict Management in Ukraine 229 Fred Tanner The OSCE and the Crisis in and around Ukraine: First Lessons for Crisis Management 241 Jean P. Froehly OSCE/ODIHR’s Responses to the Crisis in and around Ukraine 251 Hans-Joachim Schmidt The Link between Conventional Arms Control and Crisis Management 267 P. Terrence Hopmann The OSCE’s Contrasting Roles in Managing the Ukraine/Crimea Crises in 1992-96 and 2014-15 277 Comprehensive Security: The Three Dimensions and Cross-Dimensional Challenges Reinhold Mokrosch How Tolerant Do Religions Need to Be to Serve Peace? Considerations of Tolerance and Satire after the Attacks in Paris and Copenhagen in January and February 2015 297 Omar Grech/Monika Wohlfeld Managing Migration in the Mediterranean: Is the EU Failing to Balance State Security, Human Security, and Human Rights? 309 7 Paul Holtom The OSCE and the Arms Trade Treaty: Complementarity and Lessons Learned 327 Rory McCorley The 1999-2004 Georgia Border Monitoring Operation and the 2005-2009 Follow-up Projects – Lessons Learned and Potential Offerings for Future Engagement 343 III. Organizational Aspects OSCE Institutions and Structures Natascha Cerny Ehtesham/Laurent Goetschel Civil Society in the OSCE: From Human Rights Advocacy to Peacebuilding 363 Annexes Back to Diplomacy Final Report and Recommendations of the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project 377 Forms and Forums of Co-operation in the OSCE Area 409 The 57 OSCE Participating States – Facts and Figures 411 OSCE Conferences, Meetings, and Events 2014/2015 429 OSCE Selected Bibliography 2014/2015 435 Abbreviations 451 Contributors 459 8 Lamberto Zannier Foreword by the Secretary General of the OSCE The year 2015 marked the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Helsinki Final Act, the founding document of the Organization for Security and Co- operation in Europe (OSCE). Revolutionary for its time, the Final Act repre- sented a historic triumph of co-operation over confrontation and paved the way for the end of the Cold War. Its ten fundamental principles have become pillars of the European security order. It also pioneered the comprehensive approach to security by recognizing a direct link between its politico-military, economic and environmental, and human rights aspects. The international security landscape has changed significantly since then. With the end of the Cold War and the disappearance of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) faced new realities, including the emergence of new states in Central and Eastern Europe, South-eastern Europe, and Central Asia. The CSCE soon turned into the OSCE, transforming primarily from a venue for political dialogue into an organization equipped with permanent structures and operational capacities. Over time, the OSCE has successfully managed to apply its unique comprehensive and multidimensional approach to security to an increasing number of challenges: from arms proliferation and the promo- tion of military transparency to the resolution of protracted conflicts, support for transition processes and democratic reforms, and combating transnational threats. It has developed and strengthened its ability to provide expert advice and capacity-building support in areas such as good governance, economic reform, environmental protection, protection of the rights of national minor- ities, tolerance and non-discrimination, anti-terrorism, border management, and combating human trafficking. It has built strong partnerships with other multilateral actors as well as its neighbours in the southern Mediterranean and Asian regions to jointly respond to common security challenges. Ultim- ately, the OSCE’s inclusiveness, impartiality, and comprehensive approach to security have proved to be its key comparative advantages in responding to today’s rapidly changing security environment and in addressing new chal- lenges such as those related to terrorism and increasing violent radicalization or moving to include new themes on its agenda, such as those relating to the security impact of climate change. And as Europe faces unprecedented in- flows of migrants and refugees, the OSCE’s comprehensive approach and the richness of its toolbox are proving invaluable in addressing many aspects of this unfolding crisis. While over the last 40 years the CSCE/OSCE has repeatedly demon- strated its enduring relevance in flexibly adapting to changing security needs in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian region, the ongoing crisis in and around 9 Ukraine is perhaps the most difficult challenge the Organization has faced since the end of the Cold War. Since the beginning of the crisis, the OSCE has played a central role in the international community’s efforts to stabilize the situation. As the only regional security organization involving all key stakeholders with vested in- terests, the OSCE has proved to be well placed to de-escalate the conflict and support the political process. Its longstanding presence on the ground in Ukraine and its established record as an impartial observer and a credible and neutral facilitator were no less important. The rapid deployment of the Spe- cial Monitoring Mission to Ukraine and its ability to quickly adapt to chang- ing realities, particularly when it was entrusted with supporting the imple- mentation of the Minsk Agreements, is a huge achievement for the Organiza- tion. But in fact, the entire OSCE toolbox has been mobilized to respond to the unfolding crisis, and the scope of the OSCE’s response has covered all phases of the conflict cycle. The OSCE has amply demonstrated that it can deliver in times of crisis in spite of existing divisions among its participating States. However, re- gardless of the accomplishments of the OSCE at the operational level, we must also address the underlying causes of these ruptures, which stem from long-term challenges to European security at the political level. Dividing lines had begun to re-emerge well before the turmoil in Ukraine erupted, and mistrust among participating States had been undermining co-operation and constructive engagement in various areas for some time.