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World Bank Document Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 5 1434-LV INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM DOCUMENT FOR THE FIRST SPECIAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF EURO 100 MILLION (US$143,900,000 MILLION EQUIVALENT) Public Disclosure Authorized AS PART OF A PROPOSED LENDING PROGRAM OF TWO LOANS TO THE REPUBLIC OF LATVIA TO SUPPORT A SAFETY NET AND SOCIAL SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM Public Disclosure Authorized February 12,201 0 Human Development Sector Management Unit Central Europe and the Baltic Countries Department Europe and Central Asia Regional Office Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents mav not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. LATVIA CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective December 3 1,2009) EUR 1:00 : US$ 1.439 : LVL 0.708 ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS& TERMS AAA Analytic and Advisory Activities Reconstructionand Development ALMP Active Labor Market Programs IMF International Monetary Fund BoL Bank of Latvia LFS Labor Force Survey CEE Central and Eastern Europe LVL Latvian Lats CoM Cabinet of Ministers MoE Ministry of Economy CSB Central Bureau of Statistics MoES Ministry of Education and DC Defined Contribution pension Science plan, in Latvia, funded and MoF Ministry of Finance privately managed MoH Ministry of Health DG ECFM EC Directorate-Generalfor MOW Ministry of Welfare Economic and Financial Affairs MoRDLG Ministry of Regional DG European Commission Development and Local EMPLOYMENT Directorate for Employment Government EC European Commission NDC .Notional Defined Contribution, ECA Europe and Central Asia Region pay-as-you-go pension plan ECB European Central Bank NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units ERM2 Exchange Rate Mechanism (2nd for Statistics (EU geo-code phase) identification) ESA European System of Accounts OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ESF European Social Fund PER Public Expenditure Review ESSNS Emergency Social Safety Net Strategy PFM Public Finance Management EU European Union PHC Primary Health Care FDI Foreign Direct Investments PISA Program for International Student Assessment GDP Gross Domestic Product PIT Personal Income Tax GMI Guaranteed Minimum Income means tested social assistance PPP Public Private Partnerships benefit SEA State Employment Agency GNI Gross National Income SOE State Owned Enterprises GPPHC General PractitionerPrimary UI Unemployment Insurance Health Care VAT Value Added Tax HBS Household Budget Survey EU SILC Survey of Incomes and Living IBRD International Bank for Conditions Vice President: Philippe H. Le Houerou Country Director: Peter C. Harrold Sector Director: Tamar Manuelyan Atinc Country Manager: Thomas Blatt Laursen Sector Manager: Jesko Hentschel Task Team Leader: Truman G. Packard ii FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF LATVIA SAFETY NET AND SOCIAL SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM SPECIAL DEVELOPMENTPOLICY LOAN(SDPL) FIRST IN A PROPOSED PROGRAM OF TWO SDPLS TABLEOF CONTENTS LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY ............................................................................ v I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 I1. COUNTRY CONTEXT ............................................................................................... 4 2.1. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN LATVIA .................................. 4 2.1(a) Growing macro imbalances and buildup of vulnerability ......................... 4 2.1(b) The Stabilization Program ......................................................................... 7 2.2. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY .............11 2.4. SOCIAL SECTOR POLICY ISSUES ............................................................... 20 2.4(a) Health ....................................................................................................... 20 2.4(b) Education................................................................................................. 23 2.4(c) Social Protection ...................................................................................... 26 2.5. POLICY ISSUES IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ....................................... 31 I11. THE GOVERNMENT’S REFORM PROGRAM ................................................. 31 3.1. FISCAL CONSOLIDATION............................................................................. 31 3.2. CRISIS-INDUCED EXPENDITURE CUTS AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS IN THE SOCIAL SECTORS .................................................................................... 32 3.2(a) Health ....................................................................................................... 32 3.2(b) Education................................................................................................. 35 3.2(c) Social Protection ...................................................................................... 39 3.3. FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND THE PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REFORM PROGRAM .............................................................................................. 41 3.4. THE EMERGENCY SOCIAL SAFETY STRATEGY ..................................... 42 3.5. GOVERNMENT’S CONSULTATION ............................................................. 43 IV. BANK SUPPORT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM ............................. 44 4.1. LINK TO COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY ...................................... 44 4.2. RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER BANK OPERATIONS .................................... 45 4.3. ANALYTICAL UNDERPINNINGS ................................................................. 46 V . THE PROPOSED SPECIAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN ....................... 46 5.1. ANALYTICAL AND ADVISORY ASSISTANCE .......................................... 51 6.1. POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT ................................................................ 53 6.1 (a) Impact of the economic contraction ........................................................ 53 6.2(b) Poverty and social impacts of ESSNS measures ..................................... 54 6.3. ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS ....................................................................... 57 6.4. IMPLEMENTATION MONITORING AND EVALUATION......................... 57 6.5. FIDUCIARY ASPECTS .................................................................................... 58 6.5(a) Public Financial Management System and Budgetary Resources........... 58 6.5(b) Foreign Exchange Environment .............................................................. 58 6.6. DISBURSEMENT, AUDITING AND PROCUREMENT ............................... 59 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties . Its contents may not be otherwise disclosed without World Bank authorization. VII. RISKS AND RISK MITIGATION ........................................................................ 59 ANNEX 1: GOVERNMENT’S LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY (LDP) ..62 ANNEX 2: ASSESSMENT FROM INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ........ 70 ANNEX 3: POLICY MATRIX ...................................................................................... 71 ANNEX 4: MONITORING AND RESULTS FRAMEWORK .................................. 74 ANNEX 5: LATVIA’S MULTI-PILLAR RETIREMENT SECURITY SYSTEM ..81 ANNEX 6: SPENDING, COVERAGE AND DISTRIBUTION OF LATVIA’S SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS AND BENEFITS ......................................... 85 ANNEX 7: LATVIA AT A GLANCE............................................................................ 91 ANNEX 8: MAP OF LATVIA ....................................................................................... 92 This loan, the first in a proposed program of two, was prepared by an IBRD team consisting of Charles Griffin (Sr. Advisor, ECAVP), Mohammed Ihsan Ajwad (Sr. Economist, ECSHD), Michael Mertaugh (Consultant Lead Education Economist, ECSHD), Asta Zviniene (Sr. Social Protection Specialist, HDNSP), Kathy Lalazarian (Sr. Public Sector Specialist, ECSPS), Paulina Holda (Country Economist for the Baltic Countries, ECSPE), Emilia Skrok (Country Economist, ECSPE), Stanislav Polak (Country Economist, ECSPE), and Truman G. Packard (Task Team Leader, Lead Economist, ECSHD). Mehtabul Azam (Economist, ECSHD); Mihails Hazans (Consultant, University of Latvia) and Inga Vilka (Consultant, University of Latvia) provided key analytical input to the lending program. Regina Nesiama (Program Assistant, ECSHD), Katerzyna Popielarska (Sr. Executive Assistant, ECCPL) and Malgorzata Michnowska (Program Assistant. ECCPL) urovided essential SUDUO~~to the task team. iv LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY REPUBLIC OF LATVIA SAFETY NET AND SOCIAL SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM FIRST SPECIAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN Borrower REPUBLIC OF LATVIA Implementation MINISTRY OF FINANCE Agency Amount EUR 100 Million (US$143,900,000 equivalent) Financing IBRD Special Development Policy Loan (SDPL), with a front end fee of 100 basis points; 8 year average maturity; 10 year final maturity; 5 year grace period; and interest rate equal to Libor + 200 basis points. Tranching Single tranche (part of a proposed program of two single tranche SDPLs) Description This is the first of a proposed program of two loans focused on Safety Net Support and medium term social sector expenditure reform. The objectives of the proposed program are: (i)to protect vulnerable groups with emergency safety net support during the economic
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