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SPECIAL REPORT the ARAB SPRING July 13Th 2013 SPECIAL REPORT THE ARAB SPRING July 13th 2013 A climate of change 20130713_SRArabSpring.indd 1 27/06/2013 15:25 SPECIAL REPORT THE ARAB SPRING A climate of change The spring proved ckle, but Arabs are still yearning for it, says CONTENTS Max Rodenbeck ON FRIDAY AFTERNOONS two years ago, the picture on Arab television 3 Revolutionary potential screens developed a curious habit of multiplying. It would split in two, How many more to go? then three, then more and more lookalike frames. At the end of noon 4 Historical borders prayers, as mosques emptied in sequence across four time zones, news Fertile Croissant teams in city after city beamed up dramatic imagery that was strikingly similar. The same vast, joyous, ag-waving crowds surged into the Pearl 6 Political Islam Roundabout in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, thronged the Tahrir The power of religion Squares of Sana’a, the Yemeni capital, and of Egypt’s great metropolis, 8 Youth Cairo, and swarmed the beachfront at Benghazi in Libya and the leafy av- Give us a chance enues of Tunis. Everyone was chanting the same refrain: The people de- mand the fall of the regime. 10 The economy There were many such days in the spring of 2011, as if a hidden con- The haves and the have­nots ductor had orchestrated a pan-Arab symphony of protest, and the upris- 11 Constitution•building ing did bring momentous change. Before it began to stir in December The long march 2010, the world’s 350m Arabs had seemed oddly immune to the democ- A CKNOWLEDGMENTS racy bug that had infected most corners of the globe. Whether republics 15 After Egypt’s double spring Keep going In addition to those cited in the or monarchies, nearly all of the world’s 19 predominantly Arabic-speak- text, the author wishes to express ing states had solidied into similar political forms, their varied constitu- warm thanks to all who helped in tional veneers imsy disguises for strongman rule. The people, including many and sundry ways, among them Mohamed Ben Ahmed, Issandr El legions of often jobless youths, had no say in how things were run. Amrani, David Butter, Abu George, In breathtakingly short order the decades-old dictatorships of Tuni- A list of sources is at Michael Hanna, Peter Harling, Emile sia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen collapsed. As popular pressure mounted, Economist.com/specialreports Hokayem, Haider Kata, Karima other Arab governments announced political reforms, more public Khalil, Tayseer al Khunaizi, Jane An audio interview with Kininmont, Akram Ramadan, Lina spending and other concessions to appease their restless people. A re- the author is at Sinjab, Prashant Rao, Oussama Safa gion-wide burst of youthful energy that reminded Westerners of their Economist.com/audiovideo/ and Yezid Sayegh. own liberating social upheaval of the 1960s suggested a new sense of em- 1 specialreports The Economist July 13th 2013 1 SPECIAL REPORT THE ARAB SPRING 2 powerment. The Arab exceptionthe apparent inability of these neo-patriarchal states to move towards political norms How much democracy? 2 shared by most of the worldseemed to have been overcome. Since 2010 Those heady, hopeful days have long passed. The mood Elected New Serious Monarchy/ Head constitution political across the Arab world now is gloomy. Some say sourly that the Country Republic of state Legislature issued violence Arab spring has turned into an Islamist winter. They fear that Algeria R ✔* ✔ ✔† ✘ after losing power in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood and kin- Bahrain M ✘ ✔ ✘ ✔ dred groups with strong religious leanings that did well in the Egypt R ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Arab spring will may become even more combative. Many sus- Iraq R ✔ ✔ ✘ ✔ pect that the Islamists have every intention of following the path Jordan M ✘ ✔/✘‡ ✘ ✘ set by Iran’s revolution three decades ago, and that to such peo- ✘ ✔ ✘ ✘ ple democracy is merely a vehicle for legitimising a new form of Kuwait M authoritarianism: One man, one vote, one time. Lebanon R ✔ ✔ ✘ ✘ † Yet Arab Islamists also lament the way things have evolved. Libya R ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Now in power in many countries after decades in opposition, Mauritania R ✘ ✔ ✘ ✘ they are learning hard lessons. Translating religious ideals into Morocco M ✘ ✔ ✔ ✘ practical policies is tough when Islamists themselves are far Oman M ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ from agreed over what those ideals should be, and tougher still Palestinian Territories R ✔ ✔ ✘ ✘ when resistance to Islamist aims, whether from entrenched bu- Qatar M ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ reaucracies or from secular-minded elites, proves sti and unre- Saudi Arabia M ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ lenting. Even so, the overthrow of Muhammad Morsi, Egypt’s Sudan R ✘ ✘ ✔† ✘ Muslim Brotherhood president, by a combination of popular re- Syria R ✔* ✔ ✔ ✔ jection and military muscle came as a shock. Tunisia R ✔ ✔ ✔† ✔ Other critics worry less about the Islamists’ intentions or UAE M ✘ ✔/✘‡ ✘ ✘ the danger of political polarisation than about the messy, pro- Yemen R ✔ ✔ ✘ ✔ longed political transitions now in progress, which so far have *Flawed election †Preparing to issue done nothing to alleviate the social problems that spawned the Source: Freedom House, The Economist new constitution ‡Part elected, part appointed upheavals in the rst place. Nowhere, as yet, has the right to vote or greater freedom to speak translated into markedly better gov- ernment, more jobs or brighter short-term prospects. No Arab strife. When the police in the tiny island kingdom of Bahrain country has emerged as a model for others to follow. Despair failed to stamp out a raucous pro-democracy mutiny, the ruling seems to be winning over hope. Countries such as Tunisia and family panicked. It invited nearby Sunni monarchs to send in Egypt could remain turbulent for years to come, whoever is in troops, which lead to scores of deaths and hundreds of arrests. government there. The result is a grim stand-o between the country’s embittered And those newly democratic countries have done relative- two-thirds majority of Shia Muslims and a wary Sunni minority. ly well. Elsewhere, the rst owerings of protest in the spring of Not only has Bahrain failed to progress, it has turned the clock 2011 brought not freedom but more tyranny and vicious civil back to where it was after a previous bout of sectarian tensions in the 1980s. Even that outcome pales next to the carnage in Syria. What has unfolded is far beyond the worst imaginings of the protesters The rites of spring 1 who dared to challenge the government with peaceful marches Protests begin in Tunisia, sparked by self-immolation of Muhammad Bouazizi two years ago. The death toll so far has now passed 100,000; more than a quarter of Syria’s 21m people have been displaced; President Ben Ali flees Tunisia half its main cities are in ruins; and, predicts the UN, half its pop- In Egypt demonstrators occupy Cairo’s Tahrir Square ulation will be in need of food aid by the end of this year. What Egypt’s president Hosni Mubarak resigns, army takes control began as an inclusive popular uprising has turned into a fratri- Democracy protests start in Bahrain cidal war with no end in sight. The only conceivable scenarios for the conict’s outcome are dismally bleak. Protests erupt in Libya, eastern half of country falls to rebels A victory for the regime of Bashar Assad would perpetuate Thousands protest peacefully in Morocco, a cruel dictatorship in a physically devastated, psychologically 1 King Mohammed VI promises new constitution soon Uprising in Bahrain is suppressed with help of Saudi troops Islamists win Egypt’s parliamentary election, having earlier polled strongly in Tunisia UN no-fly zone imposed over Libya, NATO bombardment begins President Ali Abdullah Saleh leaves Yemen Government troops in Sana’a, Regime begins Muhammad Morsi of New mass protests in Egypt, Yemen’s capital, kill 45 protesters. shelling Homs, the Muslim Brotherhood leading to army taking control Demonstrations persist Syria’s third- elected president of Egypt and ousting President Morsi largest city, In Syria, 72 protesters killed when thousands of Rebels launch Regime forces security forces fire on crowds at Deraa Sunnis flee offensive to take together with Aleppo, Syria’s Hizbullah seize town Muammar Qaddafi largest city of Qusayr, Syria killed in Sirte, Libya. War ends D JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJJ 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: The Economist 2 The Economist July 13th 2013 SPECIAL REPORT THE ARAB SPRING 750 km Tunis 22.0 A: PALESTINIAN Algiers ATLANTIC Rabat TUNISIA M TERRITORIES e d Casablanca i t e 4.8 33.8 B: BAHRAIN 11.0 r r a LEBANON SYRIA O C E A N MOROCCO n e a n C: S e a 4.3 A QATAR Marrakech IRAQ Tripoli Benghazi 7.2 3.3 D: UNITED 33.0 Cairo ARAB 39.2 JORDAN KUWAIT EMIRATES WESTERN L I B Y A The 2.1 SAHARA SAUDI Gulf (sovereignty 6.2 B disputed) ALGERIA EGYPT ARABIA C 84.7* 9.1 R Riyadh 1.3 e D Muscat 3.9 d S 3.6 e MAURITANIA a 28.8 N Nouakchott e A il M N O 24.4 GDP per person, 2012 Population, 2013 S U D A N Sana’a $’000 at PPP † Estimate, m Khartoum N E M E Above 50 25-10 Below 5 Total: 355.7 30.9* Y 50-25 10-5 No data *Government figures Sources: UN; Economist Intelligence Unit †Purchasing-power parity 2 traumatised and politically isolated land. Victory for his foes end-point, the wave of change may have only just begun. Judg- could unleash horric sectarian vengeance against Syria’s multi- ing by experience elsewhere, such transitions take not months ple minorities by the long-oppressed and now enraged 70% Sun- but years, even decades.
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