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Monthly News Scan MONTHLY NEWS SCAN Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS Vol. 24 Issue 9 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my 1 – 30 September 2019 HIGHLIGHTS to media reports. (26 September. a 0.5% drop. Manufacturers surveyed FOCUS BBC News) by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect output to rise • France and Germany united on Eurozone gets fresh help to bolster 1.9% in September and decline 0.5% strategy to fight global flagging growth: The European in October, the data showed. (30 slowdown: French minister Central Bank has unveiled fresh September, Reuters) • US and Japan agree initial trade stimulus measures to bolster the deal focusing on agriculture eurozone, including cutting a key South Korea inflation expectations • Miti: M’sia committed to working interest rate. The deposit facility rate, fall, raise chance of rate cut: South with the US for mutual benefits paid by banks on reserves parked at Korean consumers’ inflation • Fitch Research sees FDI into the ECB, was already negative, but expectations fell to the lowest on Malaysia picking up has now been cut from minus 0.4% to record, a survey from the Bank of • Franchise sector is growing in minus 0.5%. The ECB also said it Korea (BOK) showed, bolstering the was re-starting quantitative easing. It Sabah chances for another rate cut in will buy €20bn of debt a month from October. Consumers’ median • RM20m for Sabah Pantas 1 November. The eurozone’s main inflation expectations for the next 12 programme interest rate has remained unchanged months fell to 1.8% in September, at zero. (12 September, BBC News) down from 2.0% in August and the INTERNATIONAL lowest since the data was first ANTARABANGSA Cooling U.S. consumer spending released in February 2002. The underscores risks to economy: U.S. nation’s consumer price index was France and Germany united on consumer spending barely rose in unchanged in August from a year strategy to fight global slowdown: August and business investment earlier, the weakest pace since the French minister: France and remained subdued amid lingering country began releasing inflation data Germany agreed on a joint strategy to trade tensions, prompting economists in 1965 and far below the central respond to a global economic to slash their economic growth bank’s 2% target and annual forecast slowdown at a time of international estimates for the third quarter. The of 0.7%. (26 September, Reuters) trade tensions, French Finance reports from the Commerce Minister Bruno Le Maire said in a Department, however, likely do not China plans to step up efforts to lift statement. In a news conference signal a recession looming as economy -central bank: China plans alongside Germany’s Finance and consumer spending remains to step up economic adjustments to Economy Ministers, Le Maire said supported by solid income growth, counter its slowing economy while the strategy was based on three thanks to the lowest unemployment providing adequate liquidity in the pillars: “Reducing public debt where rate in nearly 50 years and a huge economy, said the central bank. The it is necessary. And it is the case in savings buffer. (27 September, United States and China have been France; Pursuing structural reforms, Reuters) locked in an escalating trade war for as we are doing in France; Having more than a year, which has hit budget policies that can take up the Russia seen cutting rate further in China’s already slowing economic baton from monetary policy.” (19 2019 as inflation slows: Reuters growth. The statement was posted on September, Reuters) poll: Russia is expected to cut the official Twitter-like Weibo interest rates further this year amid account of the Peoples’ Bank of US and Japan agree initial trade slowing inflation and sluggish China. (29 September, Reuters) deal focusing on agriculture: The economic growth, a monthly Reuters US and Japan have agreed an initial poll showed. The central bank is seen UK growth rebound eases trade deal that will eliminate or lower cutting its key interest rate to 6.75% in the fourth quarter of 2019, recession fears: The UK’s economy tariffs on certain products traded grew faster than expected in July, between them. Duties on some according to a consensus forecast of 20 analysts and economist polled in easing fears that it could fall into agricultural goods will be removed or late September. The previous poll recession. The economy grew 0.3% lowered, while digital products will published in late August predicted in July, the UK’s official statistics also benefit. US President Donald that the central bank would lower the body said, helped by the dominant Trump said the world's first and third key rate to 6.75% only in the first services sector. Growth was flat over largest economies achieved a quarter of 2020. (30 September, the three months to July, but this was “tremendous” deal. The trade Reuters) an improvement on the 0.2% agreement did not mention car tariffs contraction seen in the April-to-June of up to 25%, which were previously Japan August factory output falls quarter. This contraction, coupled threatened by the US. But Japanese 1.2% month/month: Japan’s with some weak business surveys, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he industrial output fell 1.2% in August, raised concerns the UK was heading had received assurances that no such government data showed, coming in for recession. (9 September, BBC tariffs would be imposed, according below the median market forecast for News) 1 – 30 September 2019 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 weakness in new orders. (4 Inflation set to trend low at below NATIONAL September, Bernama) 1.0 pct -- MIDF Research: Inflation NASIONAL is forecast to return to a low level of Report: Malaysia to cut interest below one per cent in upcoming Miti: M’sia committed to working rate in Dec: Malaysia’s export months as the lower base effect with the US for mutual benefits: momentum has outperformed in resulting from the tax holiday period Malaysia is committed to continue South-East Asia, according to the last year is coming to an end. working with global economies for Institute of Chartered Accountants in According to MIDF Research, the mutual benefits, including with the England and Wales’ (ICAEW) latest fixed petrol price for RON95 at United States (US) of which we have Economic Update: South-East Asia RM2.08 will also continue to put a had over six decades of strong report. The momentum it said, downward pressure on the overall relationship in terms of trade and reflected a more modest deceleration inflation, especially that of transport. investment, said the Ministry of in export growth and resilient “Even with the removal of RON95 International Trade and Industry domestic demand, comparing the price cap, the prices are expected to (Miti) in a statement. Miti said that be on the low side in line with global growth of trade-dependent economies Malaysia’s bilateral trade with the US crude oil prices which are affected by grew by 1.2% in 2018 to such as Singapore, Thailand and the multiple headwinds,” it said in a RM155.76bil. This constitutes 8.3% Philippines which have seen slower research note today. (25 September, of Malaysia’s total trade in that same momentum in the second quarter of Bernama) year. Miti said that exports to the US 2019. “However, despite the have increased by 2.4% to outperformance of the Malaysian Malaysia’s timber products export RM90.81bil – the highest recorded economy to date, Bank Negara is hits RM12.5 billion: Malaysia has since 2008. (20 September, The Star) expected to lower interest rates by 25 exported about RM12.5 billion worth basis points (bp) in December, with a of timber products between January Fitch Research sees FDI into further 25 basis points cut in the first and July this year, said Malaysian Malaysia picking up: Fitch quarter of 2020. (24 September, The Timber Industry Board (MTIB) Solutions Macro Research expects Star) director-general, Mohd Kheiruddin foreign direct investment (FDI) into Mohd Rani. Among the high value- Malaysia to likely to continue picking Malaysia’s labour force added products exported were wood up over the coming quarters and participation rate falls to 68.5% in chips (RM512.3 million) and wooden continue decreasing Malaysia’s July: The labour force participation frames (RM75.1 million). “MTIB is vulnerability to outflows. In its rate in Malaysia dropped 0.1 confident that timber product exports outlook report on the Malaysian percentage point to 68.5% in July as will continue to increase following economy, it said this view was firstly compared to the previous month, said the high demand for the products in supported by Malaysia’s successful the Department of Statistics the global market, backed by the renegotiation and resumption of the Malaysia. Similarly, the labour force rapid growth of the construction RM44bil East Coast Rail Link and participation was 0.1 percentage industry in the respective importing other China-backed projects would point lower from July 2018.Chief countries,” he told reporters after the likely to bring more direct investment statistician Datuk Sri Mohd Uzir closing of the Kelantan Wood-based into the country. Fitch Research said Mahidin reported that the labour Furniture and Lifestyle Exhibition.. there was further upside risk from the (28 September, Bernama) possibility of other projects being force in July rose 2% against July 2018 to 15.7 million persons. He resumed, such as the Kuala Lumpur- M’sia likely to turn more inward to Singapore High Speed Rail, added that employed persons also increased 2% to 15.18 million hold up economic growth – RHB: especially if the government manages Malaysia is likely to turn more to decrease its high public debt load persons over the same month.
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