MONTHLY NEWS SCAN

Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS

Vol. 24 Issue 1 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my 1 – 31 January 2019

HIGHLIGHTS stimulus plan, investors are looking BOJ leaves stimulus unchanged, cuts FOCUS once again toward Beijing as the inflation outlook again: The Bank of world economy heads for a Japan left monetary policy • World Bank warns of ‘darkening slowdown, or worse, in 2019. unchanged as it cut its inflation Booming China has accounted for outlook once again, underscoring skies’ for global economy about a third of the growth in the how far away its price target is and • IMF warns trade tensions could global economy in recent years. (11 how few options the central bank has hit growth January, Reuters) for drawing closer. The BOJ • Malaysia’s economy to grow maintained its yield curve-control 4.7pc to RM1.48 trillion in 2019 Oil prices edge down as global program and asset purchases, it said • More global banks revise growth worries threaten demand: in a statement Wednesday, a result downwards Brent forecast; Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as predicted by all but one of 50 Malaysia’s 2019 Budget concerns over global economic economists surveyed by Bloomberg. recalibration may be imminent growth stoked fears over future The bank lowered its inflation • reserves grew over RM4 demand. International Brent crude oil forecast for a fourth consecutive time billion last year futures were down 10 cents, or 0.2 in its quarterly outlook report. (23 • New ministry to improve Sabah percent, at $62.64 by 0106 GMT. January, Bloomberg) education system – CM They closed down 0.1 percent on Singapore’s Dec exports post worst Monday. U.S. West Texas INTERNATIONAL Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fall in 2 years: Singapore’s exports ANTARABANGSA were at $53.70 per barrel, down 0.1 recorded their worst decline in more percent, or 4 cents. (22 January, than two years in December as World Bank warns of ‘darkening Reuters) shipments of electronics and skies’ for global economy: The pharmaceuticals plunged, official World Bank is warning of increasing China posts strongest export data showed on Thursday. The risks, or what it calls “darkening growth in seven years in 2018 unexpected decline comes despite skies”, for the world economy. In its despite trade war: China’s exports ongoing trade talks between the annual assessment of global rose 9.9 percent in 2018, its strongest United States and China to defuse prospects the Bank predicts trade performance in seven years, trade tensions. Many economists continued, though somewhat slower, despite growing disruptions from an expect the dispute to hurt trade- growth this year and next. The escalating trade war with the United dependent Singapore in months to Bank’s forecast for the global States, customs data showed on come. Non-oil domestic exports in economy is expansion this year of Monday. Imports increased 15.8 December fell 8.5 percent from a 2.9% and 2.8% in 2020. But percent last year, resulting in a trade year earlier, data from the trade overhanging the broadly favourable surplus of $351.76 billion, the agency Enterprise Singapore showed, outlook are rising concerns that could country’s lowest since 2013. (14 slowing further from a revised 2.8 mean economic performance falls January, Reuters) percent decline the month before. (17 short. (8 January, BBC News) January, Reuters)

Germany isn’t floundering, despite Eurozone’s economic outlook IMF warns trade tensions could hit the data: After Tuesday’s darkens as growth risks increase: growth: The International Monetary disappointing industrial output data, The clouds seem to be gathering for Fund has warned that escalating trade the German economy could be the eurozone’s economy. At a news tensions could undermine global headed for a technical recession — conference after a policymaking economic growth. In a new report on two consecutive quarters of negative meeting on Thursday, European the world economic outlook, the IMF growth. “Technical,” however, is the Central Bank (ECB) president Mario also warns of risks from a no-deal operative word; the country isn’t Draghi described an outlook that is Brexit. For the world economy, the really in trouble, at least not yet, and becoming more overcast. Economic IMF is now predicting growth of the worrying data are driven by a data, he said, had been weaker than 3.5% in 2019. In October, it forecast single regulatory change that has expected, and the risks to growth 3.7%. (21 January, BBC News) wreaked havoc on the domestic car have increased. There was a clear industry. The German government hint in his remarks that it will take As world economy stumbles into reported a 1.9 percent month-on- even longer than the ECB has been 2019, eyes turn to China: Ten years month drop in industrial production, suggesting before it starts to raise after China helped stave off the threat the biggest since August 2015. (8 interest rates. (24 January, BBC of a global depression with a huge January, Bloomberg) News) 1 – 31 January 2019 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 from October but increased by 0.5 of positive. I believe that the FDI for NATIONAL a percentage point from a year ago this year would be higher than last NASIONAL which was at 67.9%. “The number of year,” he said. He was speaking to labour force in this month rose 2.5% reporters on the sidelines of the Malaysia’s economy to grow 4.7pc against November 2017 to 15.46 launch of Grab’s new office in to RM1.48 trillion in 2019: The million persons. During the same Bandar Utama here in Petaling Jaya World Bank forecasted Malaysia’s period, employed persons also yesterday. (29 January, The Star) RM1.41 trillion economy to grow at increased 2.5% to 14.94 million 4.7 per cent this year and to slow persons,” Uzir said in the statement MIER expects business conditions down to 4.6 per cent for next year. In on the labour force, employment and to improve in Q1: The Malaysian its January 2019 Global Economic unemployment. (15 January, The Institute of Economic Research Prospects report titled ‘Darkening Star) (MIER) says business conditions are Skies’, the World Bank said likely to improve slightly in the first Malaysia’s lower public investment M’sia on track to restore quarter of this year. Executive is weighing on growth, reflecting the financial health in three years: director Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid completion of several infrastructure Finance Minister said said although its fourth-quarter projects and a more prudent approach Malaysia is on track to restore its Business Condition Index, which toward new ones. The bank said in financial health within three years tracks domestic manufacturing contrast to the regional trend, import after it had been damaged by the activities, dropped to below the 100- growth in Malaysia has been weak, 1Malaysia Development Bhd point threshold to 95.3 points, the reflecting weak demand for capital scandal. In a statement, Lim Expected Index (EI) increased goods imports combined with lower highlighted that the major marginally on expectations of imports of intermediate goods. (9 international credit rating agencies – production and export sales. During January, Business Times) Moody’s, Fitch Ratings and S&P the quarter, the EI stood higher at Global Ratings – had all affirmed the 112.5 points, up by 16 points. (31 More global banks revise January. The Star) country’s credit ratings in their recent downwards Brent forecast; reports. Lim also noted that these November industrial production Malaysia’s 2019 Budget rating agencies had admittedly index above forecast at 2.5%: The recalibration may be imminent: expressed concerns about the country’s industrial output in More leading global banks are now government’s narrowing revenue November 2018 rose faster than following Goldman Sach’s footstep base, following the removal of the expected by 2.5%, above a to revise downwards the average goods and services tax (GST) that Bloomberg survey of 2.3%, Brent crude oil price forecast to was replaced with the sales and according to the Statistics US$60-US$65 a barrel for 2019. This service tax (SST). (24 January, The Department. Its chief statistician has pushed the consensus target down Star) Datuk Seri Mohd Uzir Mahidin said to US$70 a barrel for this year from on Friday the growth in November US$72 previously. The forecasters ‘Inflation remains moderate’: Inflation has remained moderate 2018 was supported by the increase are basing this on an additional key in manufacturing index (3.6%) and factor, the United States’ sanction since the abolition of the goods and services tax last June, despite the electricity index (3.2%). The mining against Iran, which is expiring in index declined by 0.7%.“The May and another major uncertainty in sales and service tax being reintroduced. Data from the Statistics manufacturing sector output the oil industry. The industry was expanded by 3.6% in November 2018 facing uncertainties due to the Department showed that inflation, measured by the change in the after registering a growth of 5.4% in ongoing trade war between China and October 2018. (11 January, The Star) United States, they said. There was consumer price index (CPI), rose at a strong fear in the market that demand slower-than-expected pace of 0.2% Malaysia launches ‘Love my palm for oil may continue to be lacklustre year-on-year (y-o-y) last December. oil’ campaign: The Ministry of moving forward, they added. (14 The figure was lower than the 0.3% Primary Industries announced a year- January, Business Times) increase projected in long “Love MY Palm Oil” campaign a Bloomberg poll of 20 economists. on Wednesday to fight anti-palm oil Unemployment rate in Nov On a monthly basis, the CPI campaigns that are threatening the unchanged at 3.3%: Malaysia’s increased 0.1% as compared to people’s livelihood. Minister Teresa unemployment rate remained November 2018. For the full year of Kok Suh Sim said the campaign’s unchanged at 3.3% in November 2018, the CPI increased 1% y-o-y, objective was to instil national pride 2018 on track for the third straight which is a nine-year low. (25 and greater appreciation for month, according to the Statistics January, The Star) Malaysian palm oil, focusing on

Department. Its chief statistician MITI confident FDI in 2019 will socio-economic importance, health, Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin surpass last year’s levels: nutrition, and food and non-food said on Tuesday the number of International Trade and Industry applications. Prime Minister Tun Dr unemployed persons was 516,200 Minister Datuk is is scheduled to which was an increase of 2.2% from upbeat on higher inflows of foreign officiate at the official launch of the a year ago. He said the labour force direct investment (FDI) into the “Love MY Palm Oil” campaign in participation rate in November 2018 country this year compared with the first quarter of 2019. (9 January, fell 0.1 percentage point to 68.4% 2018. “The FDI outlook is very The Star) 1 – 31 January 2019 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 2

International Cruise Terminal (ICT) Sabah usaha pasarkan produk asas LOCAL and the proposed Ferry Terminal. (7 tani di pasaran tempatan, global: TEMPATAN January, The Borneo Post) Sabah berusaha keras menjual produk berasaskan taninya di pasaran Sabah reserves grew over RM4 Sabah ministry to further develop tempatan dan antarabangsa billion last year: Sabah reserves cruise ship tourism sector — DCM: memandangkan kebanyakan grew over RM4 billion last year: The Ministry of Tourism, Culture and produknya tidak dikenali pengguna, The outlook of Sabah’s finances Environment will explore the kata Menteri Pertanian dan Industri appears to be entering positive potential of further developing the Makanan negeri Datuk Junz Wong. ground after head of Sabah Treasury, cruise ship tourism sector, said Sehubungan itu beliau meminta Rusdin Riman revealed estimated Deputy Chief Minister Datuk semua pihak agar bekerjasama dan reserves grew by over RM4 billion . “I will discuss with menjalankan tanggung jawab masing- last year. “We are in good position; the Permanent Secretary (William masing untuk mempromosikan definitely there is a slight increase in Baya) and Sabah Tourism Board produk tempatan, manakala jabatan Sabah’s reserves,” he said but General Manager (Suzaini Datuk dan agensi berkaitan di bawah declined to divulge the full figures of Sabdin Ghani) ways to promote the kementerian pula perlu memainkan Sabah’s financial reserves until the sector as another tourism frontier,” peranan proaktif dalam usaha federal audit is completed. Speaking she said after touring SuperStar Virgo pemasaran. “Bagaimanapun, to reporters after his department’s recently. The 13-storey vessel is the usahawan industri kecil dan event yesterday, Rusdin pointed flagship of the Star Cruises fleet in sederhana (IKS) berasaskan tani Sabah’s finances registered ‘slightly Asia. (10 January, The Borneo Post) perlu mengambil langkah bijak higher’ based on the 2018 report, in dengan memanfaatkan usaha badan comparison to the 2017 financial ‘Papar will boom with an airport dan agensi ini. (10 Januari, New report which recorded RM4billion in in Kimanis’: Papar would become a Sabah Times) reserves. (29 January, New Sabah developed district within the next 15 Times) years particularly after the relocation Sapulut getting RM500,000 Tamu: of the Kota Kinabalu International The State government and Sedco are New ministry to improve Sabah Airport (KKIA) to Kimanis. Minister jointly allocating a sum of education system – CM: The State of Laws and Native Affairs Datuk RM500,000 to build a Tamu ground Government launched the new Aidi Moktar said he hoped the for Mukim Sapulut at Kg Sinsingon Education and Innovation Ministry to project would be realised within the which includes constructing a improve the education system in next 10 to 15 years, adding that the building and trading area. Of the Sabah, said Chief Minister Datuk existing airport would not be able to funding, Chief Minister Datuk Seri Seri Mohd . Shafie said accommodate the influx of tourists by Mohd Shafie Apdal said the State however this cannot be done without then. “KK is no longer capable of government allotted RM300,000 the help of educational institutions, supporting the international airport; while RM200,000 came from Sedco parents and the students themselves. the government had planned to move to fulfil the need of the traders and He reiterated that one of the efforts to it to Kimanis but perhaps for some villagers involved in trading activities help the less fortunate families was reasons, they were not able to at the Tamu every Friday. He said the Yayasan Sabah one-off assistance implement it before this. (2 January, this during the celebration of the Ilau for students at higher learning New Sabah Times) Panawari Festival, Nabawan level, at institutions like Universiti Malaysia Datuk Lindung Tunon hall of SMK Sabah (UMS) and secondary schools Pelaksanaan sistem perniagaan Sapulut here in Nabawan. (14 January, Daily Express) in Sabah. (25 January, The Borneo barter suburkan aktiviti Post) perniagaan di Sabah: Shafie: POIC Lahad Datu to cover 4,000 Pelaksanaan sistem perniagaan tukar acres of palm oil industries: Mega developments at KK Port: barang atau perdagangan barter The POIC Lahad Datu, developed Mega developments are on the cards antara Sabah dan negara jiran dapat since 2005, will eventually cover in the old Kota Kinabalu Port area menyuburkan lagi aktiviti perniagaan some 4,000 acres of palm oil-based that will further propel the cruise and di negeri ini khususnya di kawasan value-adding and related industries. tourism industry in Sabah. With its pantai timur Sabah seperti Sandakan, And, its port infrastructure, located strategic geographical location dan Kudat. Ketua Menteri on the shores of the park near here fronting the South China Sea against Sabah Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal (Lahad Datu), includes a liquid a backdrop of the majestic Mount berkata selain merancakkan aktiviti terminal, a dry bulk terminal, a barge Kinabalu, the entire Kota Kinabalu perniagaan, sistem berkenaan juga landing and a recently commissioned Port land is in the process of being mendatangkan keuntungan kepada container terminal. It has been re-developed into multi-billion negeri Sabah. “Kalau kita lihat described as the most comprehensive commercial projects. These projects sejarah pelaksanaan sistem ini, ia port strategically located in include the 15-acre Sabah banyak menguntungkan kepada the BIMP-EAGA (Brunei-Indonesia- International Convention Centre Sabah kerana mereka (peniaga dari Malaysia-Philippines East Asean (SICC), Kota Kinabalu Convention negara jiran) membeli banyak barang Growth Area) region and will in the City (8.33 acres) Jesselton Quay daripada kita berbanding kita future become a key port along the (16.25 acres), seven-acre One membeli barang daripada mereka. (9 Lombok-Makassar shipping route. Jesselton Waterfront, the proposed Januari, New Sabah Times) (29 January, New Sabah Times) 1 – 31 January 2019 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 3

SELECTED FACTS AND FIGURES FAKTA MUTAKHIR

(Source: 11 January, Department of Statistics Malaysia)

(Source: 30 January, Department of Statistics Malaysia)

(Source: 11 January, Department of Statistics Malaysia)

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(Source: 30 January, Department of Statistics Malaysia)

(Source: 21 January, BBC News)

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