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1 UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO Faculdade De Filosofia, Letras E UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas PÉRICLES TESONE DE SOUZA Jogo de Espelhos: uma análise da visão geopolítica de Zbigniew Brzezinski sobre a Rússia NÍVEL: MESTRADO São Paulo 2017 1 PÉRICLES TESONE DE SOUZA Jogo de Espelhos: uma análise da visão geopolítica de Zbigniew Brzezinski sobre a Rússia Dissertação apresentada à Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas da Universidade de São Paulo para obtenção do título de Mestre em História Social Área de Concentração: História Social Orientador: Prof. Dr. Angelo de Oliveira Segrillo São Paulo 2017 2 SUMÁRIO AGRADECIMENTOS ............................................................................................. p. 4 RESUMO ................................................................................................................... p. 5 ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... p. 6 INTRODUÇÃO ........................................................................................................ p. 7 CAPÍTULO 1: A GEOPOLÍTICA COMO GRAMÁTICA BÁSICA PARA A WELTANSCHAUUNG BRZEZINSKIANA ......................................................... p. 15 CAPÍTULO 2: BIOGRAFIA E TRAJETÓRIA PROFISSIONAL DE BRZEZINSKI.......................................................................................................... p. 53 CAPÍTULO 3: DESCRIÇÃO E ANÁLISE DO POSICIONAMENTO TEÓRICO E POLÍTICO DE BRZEZINSKI, ESPECIALMENTE EM RELAÇÃO À RÚSSIA/URSS....................................................................................................... p. 101 CAPÍTULO 4: BRZEZINSKI SOB O OLHAR CRÍTICO DA LITERATURA ESPECIALIZADA ............................................................................................... p. 195 CONCLUSÃO ....................................................................................................... p. 221 FONTES E BIBLIOGRAFIA ............................................................................... p. 239 3 AGRADECIMENTOS Ao meu orientador, Prof. Dr. Angelo de Oliveira Segrillo, pela constante confiança, apoio e sugestões na elaboração deste projeto. Aos membros convidados da banca examinadora, pela disponibilidade da partilha deste momento. Aos meus pais, que sempre me apoiaram e me ajudaram a superar obstáculos e enfrentar novos desafios. 4 RESUMO O presente trabalho se propõe a refletir acerca da trajetória e pensamento geopolítico e estratégico do acadêmico e analista político Zbigniew Brzezinski, incluindo o período em que atuou como Conselheiro de Segurança Nacional do presidente norte-americano Jimmy Carter entre 1977 e 1980. Como estrategista focado na política externa dos EUA, sobretudo em relação à Eurásia, ele teve durante toda a sua carreira um posicionamento muito intenso e controverso em relação à União Soviética e à Rússia, sobretudo baseado nas teorias geopolíticas clássicas de John. H. Mackinder e Nicholas J. Spykman. O enfoque deste estudo é relacionado às continuidades e mudanças em seu pensamento estratégico, principalmente buscando compreender melhor suas percepções sobre o papel e alinhamento político global da Rússia. Pretende-se, desta forma, aprofundar o entendimento e posicionamento de Brzezinski em relação ao pertencimento cultural e estratégico da Rússia na Eurásia e no mundo. Palavras-chave: Zbigniew Brzezinski; Geopolítica; Estratégia; Eurásia; Rússia; União Soviética. 5 ABSTRACT This paper aims to reflect on the geopolitical and strategic thought and trajectory of the academic and political strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski, including his period as National Security Advisor of North-American President Jimmy Carter between 1977 and 1980. As a strategist focused on the foreign policy of the USA, particularly regarding Eurasia, he had during his whole career some very intense and controversial positions regarding the Soviet Union and Russia, especially based on the classic geopolitical theories of John H. Mackinder and Nicholas J. Spykjman. The focus of this study is related to the continuities and changes of his strategic thought, seeking mainly to better understand his perceptions on the role and global political alignment of Russia. It is intended therefore to elaborate on Brzezinski’s understanding and positions regarding Russia’s cultural and strategic belonging in Eurasia and the world. Keywords: Zbigniew Brzezinski; Geopolitics; Strategy; Eurasia; Russia; Soviet Union. 6 INTRODUÇÃO Após o fim da Guerra Fria e o colapso da União Soviética no início dos anos 1990, alguns líderes políticos e autores, como por exemplo Fukuyama (1992) e Trenin (2002), previam uma nova ordem mundial baseada em um mundo multipolar, o fim do conflito Leste-Oeste e a propagação da democracia e livre mercado como vetores de uma maior cooperação global. Algumas destas visões e explicações, contudo, mostraram-se ao menos em parte insuficientes com a chegada do novo milênio, quando alguns temas geopolíticos importantes envolvendo a Rússia voltaram à tona. Duas frases relativamente recentes ilustram bem a importância desses temas no mundo atual. Em 2005 o presidente russo Vladimir Putin disse em uma declaração na televisão que o colapso da União Soviética foi um enorme desastre geopolítico do século: “The collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century”.1 Ele ainda se referiu ao fato de uma significativa população russa ter ficado fora da Rússia, enfraquecendo a unidade nacional e dificultando a capacidade de se proteger essas populações no exterior. À época alguns alegaram um saudosismo de Putin pela URSS, embora ele também possa ter aludido à questão de ter ocorrido um deslocamento da hegemonia de uma potência eurasiana para um eixo de poder atlântico liderado pelos EUA. Pelo outro lado, no início de 2012,2 o candidato à presidência dos EUA, Mitt Romney, em uma entrevista à emissora televisiva CNN declarou que a Rússia era o inimigo geopolítico número um dos EUA: “This [Russia] is without question our number one geopolitical foe”.3 Ao ser contestado pelo jornalista, ele acrescentou que o Irã e a Coreia do Norte eram as grandes ameaças de segurança que os 1 http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2005/04/25/2031_type70029type82912_87086.shtml, acessado em 17/07/2015 2 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/9168533/Mitt-Romney-Russia-is-Americas- number-one-geopolitical-foe.html, acessado em 03/12/2014 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5weGTPkaL7o, acessado em 03/12/2014. 7 EUA enfrentavam, mas que a Rússia permanecia o grande oponente geopolítico aos interesses norte-americanos em questões globais, evidenciando um tipo de rivalidade mais estrutural. Apesar de ter sido contestado e até ridicularizado na época pela mídia e por seu opositor Barack Obama, suas declarações ganharam nova atenção recentemente, sobretudo após as ações russas na Crimeia no início de 2014,4 e os conflitos separatistas nas províncias ucranianas orientais de Donetsk e Lugansk ao longo de 2014.5 A continuidade da importância de uma análise da Rússia de um ponto de vista geopolítico no mundo atual passa pelo entendimento que mesmo após o colapso da URRS, a Rússia segue sendo um ator internacional de grande importância, por seu tamanho, sua população, sua economia rica em recursos naturais e seu forte poderio militar de alcance regional em grande parte da Eurásia, além de um protagonismo proeminente em diversas questões globais, principalmente com outros Estados eurasianos de seu interesse. Mesmo com um período de forte crise nos 1990 após o colapso da URSS, a alta no preço de insumos energéticos e a ascensão de um líder forte como Putin nos anos 2000 contribuíram para a implementação de uma política externa russa mais assertiva em questões políticas, militares e econômicas, em especial quanto a seus interesses nos Estados da CEI e do que costumou-se chamar de seu “exterior próximo”. As declarações de Putin e Romney inserem-se claramente em um viés de cunho mais estrutural, que independeria de eventos circunstanciais e influenciaria na definição de interesses econômicos e de segurança de longo prazo, aludindo a uma tradição braudeliana de longue durée.6 Alguns importantes autores geopolíticos clássicos da escola ocidental, como Alfred T. Mahan (1890), John H. Mackinder (1904; 1919; 1943) 4 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26686949, acessado em 03/12/2014. 5 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27360146, acessado em 03/12/2014. 6 BRAUDEL & MATTHEWS, 1982. 8 e Nicholas J. Spykman (1944) reconheceram e destacaram a importância da geografia como um elemento perene ou de mudança muito lenta, cuja estabilidade estrutural influenciaria no comportamento dos atores políticos e estatais no cenário internacional. Um dos fatores estruturais mais relevantes que esses autores clássicos identificaram foi o antagonismo entre poder marítimo e poder terrestre, que remontaria por exemplo à rivalidade entre Atenas e Esparta na Grécia Antiga, entre a Grécia liderada por Atenas e o Império Persa, o “Grande Jogo” entre Reino Unido e Rússia no século XIX, e a Guerra Fria entre EUA e URSS durante a segunda metade do século XX. Esse conflito entre potências marítimas e potências terrestres pela hegemonia regional ou global ao longo da história foi um tema central para esses autores ao desenvolverem e formularem suas análises geopolíticas durante o final do século XIX e a primeira metade do século XX, ressaltando particularmente a grande importância da URRS/Rússia na Eurásia como uma forte potência terrestre central
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