Five Ridings That Will Decide the Election
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20 août 2018 – Times & Transcript Five ridings that will decide the election ADAM HURAS LEGISLATURE BUREAU They are the ridings that the experts believe will decide the provincial election. “Depending on what happens in about five ridings, it will be a Progressive Conservative or Liberal government,” Roger Ouellette, political science professor l’Université de Moncton said in an interview. J.P. Lewis, associate professor of politics at the University of New Brunswick added: “It feels like the most likely scenario is a close seat count.” Brunswick News asked five political watchers for the five ridings to watch over the next month leading up to the Sept. 24 vote. By no means was there a consensus. There were 14 different ridings that at least one expert included in their top five list of battlegrounds that could go one way or another. “Right now, based on the regional trends, it’s really hard to call,” MQO Research polling firm vice president Stephen Moore said. Six ridings received multiple votes. The list is heavy with Moncton and Fredericton ridings. Meanwhile, a Saint John riding and another in the province’s northeast were cited the most as runoffs that could make or break the election for the Liberals or the Progressive Conservatives. Gabriel Arsenault, political science professor at l’Université de Moncton 1. Saint John Harbour: “It was tight last time and (incumbent MLA Ed) Doherty screwed up, so I’m putting my bets on the Tories,” Arsenault said. The Progressive Conservatives called on Doherty, the former minister in charge of Service New Brunswick, to resign amid last year’s property tax assessment fiasco. 20 août 2018 – Times & Transcript He has decided not to reoffer. Four out of five experts listed this riding in their top five ridings that could sway the election result. The fifth gave the riding an “honourable mention.” Doherty won the riding by 71 votes last time around. 2. Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou: The only other riding that four out five experts pointed to, this northern riding was won by a margin of 44 votes last time around. Liberal inclumbert Wilfred Roussel will seek reelection after upsetting former deputy premier Paul Robichaud in 2014. “The Progressive Conservatives did pretty well in Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou last time, and now Robert Gauvin, a ‘star candidate’ comes in (for the Tories), so this riding is definitely winnable for him,” Arsenault said. 3. Moncton South: “Tory Moira Murphy might win,” Arsenault said. The Progressive Conservatives count the Moncton lawyer as another one of their star candidates, although she’s up again Liberal Cathy Rogers, New Brunswick’s first ever female finance minister. 4. North: “The Liberals comfortably won in Kent-Nord in 2014, but Kevin Arseneau truly is a star candidate and is very popular among francophones. He’s been working hard in his riding for a while now, so who knows,” Arsenault said. It’s a high mountain for Arseneau, the Green party candidate in the riding, to climb, but the farmer and Acadian activist is well known. He current is the chair of his local service district advisory committee and sits on the Kent Regional Service Commission. 5. Saint John East: “It was so tight last time, the Tories might just win this time,” Arsenault said. He means in the general election. In 2014, Liberal candidate Gary Keating won by nine votes over Glen Savoie. 20 août 2018 – Times & Transcript But Keating resigned in the immediate aftermath of the election, leading to Savoie to convincingly win a byelection a few months later. Jamie Gillies, political scientist at St. Thomas University 1. Saint John Harbour: “Perhaps a toss up here as the NDP might be more competitive with their leader running, the Greens are running a strong candidate, and the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals had similar support in the last election,” Gillies said. The addition of NDP Leader Jennifer McKenzie to what has been a notoriously close riding in recent history creates a new element of intrigue. 2. Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou: “This should test the strength of Liberal support in Chaleur,” Gilles said. 3. Fredericton North: “The Liberals cannot afford to lose too many ridings outside of their strongholds so this one is a key to returning with a majority government,” Gillies said. Liberal incumbent Stephen Hors-man won in 2014 by 144 votes. 4. Fredericton-Grand Lake: “The People’s Alliance were close here in 2014 so this likely will remain competitive this September and the PCs cannot afford to lose too many incumbents if they want to form government,” Gillies said. People’s Alliance Leader Kris Austin takes a third run at winning the riding after coming within 26 votes in 2014. 5. Edmundston-Madawaska Centre: “With the PC incumbent not running and the Liberals making gains in 2014, this should be competitive in 2018 and the Liberals may need this to flip to get re-elected with a majority,” Gillies said. Madeleine Dubé isn’t reoffering, putting into play the only francophone seat the Tories currently hold. J.P. Lewis, associate professor of politics at UNBSJ 20 août 2018 – Times & Transcript 1. Saint John Harbour: Doherty isn’t reoffering after winning the riding by 71 votes and NDP Leader Mc-Kenzie is in the mix, but there’s even more at stake, Lewis said. “It’s also a test of political efforts the Liberals have put into the Saint John region.” 2. Fredericton-Grand Lake: Incumbent Progressive Conservative MLA Pam Lynch won by 26 votes in 2014 over Austin. But another factor is that 47 votes behind Austin was the Liberal candidate, making this a three-horse race, Lewis said. 3. Saint Croix: “It’s an important southwestern seat for the Liberals,” Lewis said. It was won by incumbent cabinet minister John Ames in 2014 by 194 votes and the Tory candidate is well-known veteran MP Greg Thompson. 4. Fredericton South: Incumbent Green Party Leader David Coon is up against someone Lewis says is a “star” Liberal candidate in Susan Holt. It’s a riding that was held in 2014 by Tory Minister Craig Leonard. 5. Fredericton West-Hanwell: Incumbent Tory MLA Brian Macdonald is not reoffering. He’s being replaced by the New Democrat candidate he beat in the riding in 2014. “This is a test for new Progressive Conservative candidate and former NDP leader Dominic Cardy,” Lewis said. Stephen Moore, MQO Research polling firm vice president 1. Saint John Harbour: “The Liberals claimed this seat in 2014 and the Tories won in 2010,” Moore said. “In both cases the margin of victory was very small. “Our polling shows the Liberals and the Tories in a statistical tie in the Saint John area.” 2. Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou: “Our polling shows the northern part of New Brunswick is solidly red. However, this is still a seat to watch,” Moore said of the seat the Liberals won by 44 votes in 2014. “Premier Gallant’s personal numbers are also strong in this region and he has a substantial lead over Blaine Higgs for 20 août 2018 – Times & Transcript preferred premier. That will help the incumbent Wilfred Roussel, but won’t guarantee victory.” 3. Fredericton-Grand Lake: “Our latest poll shows a very tight race in the Fredericton region,” Moore said. “Will the Tories hold (in Grand Lake)? If not, can the People’s Alliance leader steal enough of their support to win the seat or can the Liberals benefit from a split vote and come out on top?” 4. Moncton Southwest: In 2014, Sherry Wilson won this riding for the Tories by less than four percentage points. “Currently, the Liberals and Tories are tied for public support in Moncton,” Moore said. “However, there are a lot of undecided voters in the Moncton area.” 5. Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton: “Another riding in Fredericton makes the list because of a tight regional race and because the incumbent Tory Jody Carr will not be re-offering,” Moore said.“This is a long-time Tory seat, but it could become a swing riding in Fredericton.” Roger Ouellette, political science professor l’Université de Moncton 1. Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou: “The son of Jean Gauvin is running so I’ll watch that,” Ouellette said. Jean served as a Progressive Conservative MLA in the region twice for a combined 15 years. 2. Moncton Centre: “Chris Collins will be running as an independent and at the very least he will divide the Liberal vote, meaning this riding could swing to the (Progressive) Conservatives,” Ouellette said. 3. Moncton South:“This is (Finance) Minister Cathy Rogers’ riding, but she’s now against Moira Kelly,” he said, noting Kelly has been using “Murphy” on her signage. Her husband is former politician and Liberal leadership candidate Mike Murphy. 4. Fredericton North: “Stephen Horsman only narrowly won that riding,” Ouellette said. 20 août 2018 – Times & Transcript 5. Saint Croix:“Ames had a small victory last time and a former MP is now in the running,” Ouellette said. .