Report PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN NEW BRUNSWICK DATE For publicationNUMÉRO on DE AugustPROJET 29, 2020 METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology. From August 21st to August 26th, 2020 519 New Brunswickers, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in New Brunswick, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, level of education and presence of children in the household in order to ensure a representative sample of the population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 519 respondents would have a margin of error of ± 4.3%, 19 times out of 20. The research results presented here are in full compliance with the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. 2 METHODOLOGY Notes on Reading this Report The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers. In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents. A more detailed methodology is presented in the annex. If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected] 3 PROVINCIAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN NEW BRUNSWICK Q1A/Q1B. If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Base: All respondents TOTAL TOTAL Frede- Rest of Non Election Eligible Decided Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-John Franco ricton NB Franco 2018 voters voters Weighted n = 519 425 225 199 92 135 197 84 78 65 198 137 288 Unweighted n = 519 426 191 235 81 130 215 159 42 82 143 156 270 ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New 32% 40% 42% 36% 31% 33% 48% 43% 45% 50% 32% 28% 45% 31.89% Brunswick ...Kevin Vicker's New 26% 32% 30% 34% 27% 36% 32% 31% 21% 15% 43% 58% 20% 37.80% Brunswick Liberal Party ...David Coon's Green Party 11% 13% 12% 14% 20% 14% 9% 13% 12% 29% 8% 7% 16% 11.88% of New Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s 6% 7% 7% 7% 11% 4% 7% 3% 12% 5% 7% 1% 10% 12.58% Alliance of New Brunswick ...Mackenzie Thomason's New Democratic Party of 5% 6% 6% 7% 12% 9% 2% 8% 10% 0% 6% 5% 7% 5.00% New Brunswick ...another party 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 4% 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% 1% 2% 0.84% I would not vote 4% - - - - - - - - - - - - - I would cancel my vote 2% - - - - - - - - - - - - - I don’t know 9% - - - - - - - - - - - - - Refusal 4% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 FINAL CHOICE Based on Based on Based on Based on Based on Q1C. Is this your final choice or people people people people people are you likely to change your who intend who intend who intend who intend who intend mind? to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for Base: Respondents who were able the the the the the to say which party they intend to CPNB LPNB GPNB PANB NDP (weighted n = 55 (weighted n = 27* (weighted n = 168 (weighted n = 137 (weighted n = 30 unweighted n = 57) unweighted n = 26*) vote for. unweighted n = 174) unweighted n = 141) unweighted n = 22*) (weighted n=417, unweighted n=420) Total Final choice 48% 50% 58% 25% 56% 22% I'm likely to change my mind 50% 47% 41% 71% 44% 75% I don't know 2% 3% 1% 5% 0% 3% Refusal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5 *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. SATISFACTION WITH THE NEW BRUNSWICK GOVERNMENT Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Very satisfied 17% Brunswick government led by NET SATISFIED Blaine Higgs? Base: All respondents (n=519) 57% Somewhat satisfied 41% Somewhat dissatisfied 18% NET DISSATISFIED 32% Very dissatisfied 14% I don't know / refusal 10% 6 SATISFACTION WITH THE NEW BRUNSWICK GOVERNMENT – DETAILED RESULTS Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Brunswick government led by Blaine Higgs? Base: All respondents Rest of Non TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-John Fredericton Franco NB Franco Weighted n = 519 254 265 117 174 228 101 88 71 260 163 356 Unweighted n = 519 214 305 105 169 245 190 49 90 190 182 337 NET SATISFIED 57% 61% 54% 52% 53% 64% 62% 68% 63% 50% 33% 69% Very satisfied 17% 21% 13% 11% 15% 22% 23% 18% 22% 13% 8% 21% Somewhat satisfied 41% 40% 41% 41% 38% 42% 40% 50% 42% 37% 25% 48% NET DISSATISFIED 32% 30% 34% 28% 35% 31% 31% 22% 31% 36% 56% 21% Somewhat dissatisfied 18% 16% 20% 14% 23% 16% 19% 12% 23% 18% 24% 15% Very dissatisfied 14% 14% 14% 15% 13% 15% 12% 10% 8% 18% 32% 6% I don’t know 8% 8% 8% 17% 8% 4% 5% 10% 5% 9% 7% 9% Refusal 2% 1% 4% 3% 4% 1% 1% 0% 1% 4% 4% 2% 7 BEST PREMIER OF NEW BRUNSWICK Q3. In your opinion, which provincial party leader would make the best premier of New Brunswick? Base: All respondents (n=519) 30% 16% 10% 6% 3% Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “None of them,” “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses. 8 SECOND CHOICE – ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTIONS Q4. If you could not vote for < insert Q1A/Q1B answer >, what would be your second choice? Base: Respondents who were able to say which party they intend to vote for. TOTAL CPNB LPNB GPNB PANB NDPNB Weighted n = 417 168 137 55 30 27 Unweighted n = 420 174 141 57 22* 26* ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 22% 16% 40% - 16% 16% ...Kevin Vicker's New Brunswick Liberal Party 15% 18% - 39% 13% 24% ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New 12% 19% 1% 12% - 38% Brunswick ...Mackenzie Thomason's New Democratic Party 11% 9% 12% 21% 4% - of New Brunswick ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party 9% - 14% 4% 41% 12% of New Brunswick ...another party 2% 3% 1% 4% 0% 0% I would not vote 7% 9% 6% 4% 2% 3% I would cancel my vote 5% 5% 9% 2% 0% 0% I don’t know 17% 20% 14% 13% 25% 5% Refusal 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 9 *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN Q6. Which of the following issues is most important to you in the coming election campaign? Base: All respondents (n=519) Rebuilding the economy post COVID-19/Job creation 23% The healthcare system/Home healthcare 21% Management of the COVID-19 crisis 16% The situation of the elderly 10% The language issue in New Brunswick 9% Environmental protection 7% Management of public finances 6% Access to education 6% The election of a majority government 4% 10 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN – DETAILED RESULTS Q6. Which of the following issues is most important to you in the coming election campaign? Base: All respondents Rest of Non TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-John Fredericton Franco NB Franco Weighted n = 519 254 265 117 174 228 101 88 71 260 163 356 Unweighted n = 519 214 305 105 169 245 190 49 90 190 182 337 Rebuilding the economy post 23% 26% 20% 28% 25% 19% 24% 20% 36% 20% 19% 25% COVID-19/Job creation The healthcare system/Home 21% 10% 31% 19% 13% 28% 23% 23% 18% 20% 21% 20% healthcare Management of the COVID-19 crisis 16% 15% 16% 19% 18% 12% 16% 19% 16% 14% 11% 18% The situation of the elderly 10% 10% 11% 5% 10% 13% 9% 15% 3% 11% 13% 9% The language issue in New 9% 14% 4% 16% 5% 8% 9% 6% 3% 11% 15% 6% Brunswick Environmental protection 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 4% 3% 13% 7% 5% 8% Management of public finances 6% 8% 4% 2% 8% 7% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5% 7% Access to education 6% 5% 6% 5% 13% 0% 5% 7% 3% 6% 5% 6% The election of a majority 4% 5% 2% 0% 2% 6% 5% 2% 1% 4% 6% 2% government 11 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN – ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTIONS Q6. Which of the following issues is most important to you in the coming election campaign? Base: Respondents who were able to say which party they intend to vote for. TOTAL CPNB LPNB GPNB PANB NDPNB Weighted n = 519 168 137 55 30 27 Unweighted n = 519 174 141 57 22* 26* Rebuilding the economy post COVID-19/Job creation 23% 20% 26% 24% 16% 35% The healthcare system/Home healthcare 21% 17% 23% 13% 22% 21% Management of the COVID-19 crisis 16% 19% 13% 14% 6% 10% The situation of the elderly 10% 9% 13% 9% 6% 0% The language issue in New Brunswick 9% 6% 12% 2% 37% 10% Environmental protection 7% 6% 1% 27% 6% 9% Management of public finances 6% 10% 3% 6% 4% 5% Access to education 6% 6% 6% 3% 3% 6% The election of a majority government 4% 6% 4% 2% 0% 3% 12 *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only.