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Many Quantitative Psychological Theories
Psychological Review (in press) Running head: Testing Theories With Free Parameters How Persuasive is a Good Fit? Seth Roberts Harold Pashler University of California, Berkeley University of California, San Diego Quantitative theories with free parameters often gain credence when they "fit" data closely. This is a mistake, we argue. A good fit reveals nothing about (a) the flexibility of the theory (how much it cannot fit), (b) the variability of the data (how firmly the data rule out what the theory cannot fit), and (c) the likelihood of other outcomes (perhaps the theory could have fit any plausible result)–and a reader needs to know all three to decide how much the fit should increase belief in the theory. As far as we can tell, the use of good fits as evidence receives no support from philosophers of science nor from the history of psychology; we have been unable to find examples of a theory supported mainly by good fits that has led to demonstrable progress. We consider and rebut arguments used to defend the use of good fits as evidence–for example, that a good fit is meaningful when the number of free parameters is small compared to the number of data points, or when one model fits better than others. A better way to test a theory with free parameters is to (a) determine how the theory constrains possible outcomes (i.e., what it predicts); (b) assess how firmly actual outcomes agree with those constraints; and (c) determine if plausible alternative outcomes would have been inconsistent with the theory, allowing for the variability of the data. -
Diet and Cognition: Data, Theory, and Some Solutions from the Playbook of Psychology
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315135312 Diet and cognition: Data, theory, and some solutions from the playbook of psychology Article · March 2017 DOI: 10.15310/2334-3591.1060 CITATIONS READS 0 117 1 author: Aaron P Blaisdell University of California, Los Angeles 85 PUBLICATIONS 1,322 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: My life in a nutshell View project All content following this page was uploaded by Aaron P Blaisdell on 12 April 2017. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are added to the original document and are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately. Journal of Evolution and Health Volume 2 Issue 1 Special Issue of the Ancestral Health Article 8 Symposium 2016 3-14-2017 Diet and cognition: Data, theory, and some solutions from the playbook of psychology Aaron P. Blaisdell University of California, Los Angeles, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://jevohealth.com/journal Part of the Behavioral Neurobiology Commons, Behavior and Behavior Mechanisms Commons, Biological Psychology Commons, Clinical Psychology Commons, Cognitive Psychology Commons, Health Psychology Commons, Human and Clinical Nutrition Commons, Mental Disorders Commons, Nutritional Epidemiology Commons, and the Psychological Phenomena and Processes Commons Recommended Citation Blaisdell, Aaron P. (2017) "Diet and cognition: Data, theory, and some solutions from the playbook of psychology," Journal of Evolution and Health: Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 8. https://doi.org/10.15310/2334-3591.1060 This Extended Abstract is brought to you for free and open access by Journal of Evolution and Health. -
Self-Experimentation As a Source of New Ideas: Ten Examples About Sleep, Mood, Health, and Weight
BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES (2004) 27, 227–288 Printed in the United States of America Self-experimentation as a source of new ideas: Ten examples about sleep, mood, health, and weight Seth Roberts Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-1650. [email protected] Abstract: Little is known about how to generate plausible new scientific ideas. So it is noteworthy that 12 years of self-experimentation led to the discovery of several surprising cause-effect relationships and suggested a new theory of weight control, an unusually high rate of new ideas. The cause-effect relationships were: (1) Seeing faces in the morning on television decreased mood in the evening (>10 hrs later) and improved mood the next day (>24 hrs later), yet had no detectable effect before that (0–10 hrs later). The effect was strongest if the faces were life-sized and at a conversational distance. Travel across time zones reduced the effect for a few weeks. (2) Standing 8 hours per day reduced early awakening and made sleep more restorative, even though more standing was associated with less sleep. (3) Morning light (1 hr/day) reduced early awakening and made sleep more restorative. (4) Breakfast increased early awakening. (5) Stand- ing and morning light together eliminated colds (upper respiratory tract infections) for more than 5 years. (6) Drinking lots of water, eat- ing low-glycemic-index foods, and eating sushi each caused a modest weight loss. (7) Drinking unflavored fructose water caused a large weight loss that has lasted more than 1 year. While losing weight, hunger was much less than usual. -
Separate Modifiability and the Search for Processing Modules
SternbergA&P XX: Separate Modifiability & Modules 8/8/03 Page 1 . Separate Modifiability and the Search for Processing Modules Saul Sternberg* Abstract One approach to understanding a complexprocess or system starts with an attempt to divide it into modules:parts that are independent in some sense, and functionally distinct. In this chapter Idiscuss a method for the modular decomposition of neural and mental processes that reflects recent thinking in psychology and cognitive neuroscience. This process-decomposition method, in which the criterion for modularity is separate modifiability,iscontrasted with task comparison and its associated subtraction method. Four illustrative applications of process decomposition and one of task comparison are based on the event-related potential (ERP), transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). * E-mail: [email protected] Tel: 215-898-7162 Fax: 215-898-7210 Address: Department of Psychology University of Pennsylvania 3815 Walnut Street Philadelphia, PA19104-6196, USA SternbergA&P XX: Separate Modifiability & Modules 8/8/03 Page 2 Separate Modifiability and the Search for Processing Modules Saul Sternberg 1. Modules and Modularity The first step in one approach to understanding a complexprocess or system is to attempt to divide it into modules:parts that are independent in some sense, and functionally distinct.12In the present context the complexentity may be a mental process,aneural process,the brain (an anatomical processor), or the mind (a functional processor). Four corresponding senses of ‘module’ are: Module1:Apart of a mental process,functionally distinct from other parts, and investigated with behavioral measures, supporting a functional analysis. Module2:Apart of a neural process,functionally distinct from other parts, and investigated with brain measures, supporting a neural-process analysis. -
Modular Processes in Mind and Brain Saul Sternberg* Running Head
SternbergModular Processes in Mind and Brain - draft 10.05.22 Page 1 Modular Processes in Mind and Brain Saul Sternberg* . Running Head: Modular Processes in Mind and Brain Abstract One approach to understanding a complexprocess starts with an attempt to divide it into modules: subprocesses that are independent in some sense, and have different functions. In this paper I discuss an approach to the modular decomposition of neural and mental processes. Adozen examples of process decomposition are presented. Tw o are of well-established and purely behavioral realizations of the approach (signal detection theory applied to discrimination data; the method of additive factors applied to reaction-time data), and lead to the identification of mental modules.Other examples, leading to the identification of modular neural processes, use brain measures, including the latencyand amplitude of electrophysiological events, and fMRI measures. Some measures are pure (reflecting just one process), while others are composite.Two of the examples reveal mental and neural modules that correspond. Tw o promising but incomplete applications are attempts to relate brain regions to behaviorally defined processing modules, using a brain manipulation (transcranial magnetic stimulation, TMS), but suffer from flaws in design or analysis. Ishowwhy the process-decomposition approach discussed here, in which the criterion for modularity is separate modifiability,issuperior for modular decomposition to the more frequently used task comparison procedure (often used in cognitive -
Do Nutritional Supplements Improve Cognitive Function in the Elderly?
ORAL SUPPLEMENTATION AND COGNITIVE FUNCTION IN THE ELDERLY: LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 3. According to Table III, the scores of “deficient” and “ade- Do Nutritional Supplements Improve quate” subjects overlapped remarkably little. Figure 1 shows Cognitive Function in the Elderly? this problem for three of the tests (the most extreme exam- ples). The normal distributions shown in Figure 1 are based To the Editor: In 2001 in this journal, R. K. Chandra reported that on the means and standard deviations. For each test, the scores of “deficient” and “adequate” subjects were linearly a vitamin and trace-element supplement taken for a year greatly transformed so that the scores of the “adequate” subjects had improved the performance of elderly subjects on tests of memory a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1, and the “defi- and other cognitive functions.1 Because the subjects were drawn cient” scores were less than the “adequate” ones. This from the general population, the results seemed to imply that degree of separation is highly implausible because the def- millions of people would benefit from such supplements, as the inition of “deficient” was arbitrary (the lowest 5%) and 2 New York Times report on this paper would imply. Chandra holds general (a deficiency in any of 14 nutrients would cause a 3 a patent on the particular formula used, which is now being subject to be classified “deficient”). marketed. Moreover, at least some of the results bore little resemblance to We began to question the results, as did Shenkin et al.,4 because other uses of the same tests with persons the same age. -
Hacking Health
Hacking Life • Hacking Life Chapter 6: Hacking Health Joseph Reagle Published on: Apr 09, 2019 License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0) Hacking Life • Hacking Life Chapter 6: Hacking Health In September 2008 a small group of enthusiasts met in the San Francisco home of Kevin Kelly, former executive editor of Wired and Cool Tools wrangler. Kelly had gathered about thirty people interested in health, enhancement, genetics, and life extension. The group included Gary Wolf, a colleague from Wired, and Kelly and Wolf had organized this get-together as the inaugural meeting of what they called the “Quantified Self” (QS). This was the movement’s first Show & Tell for those interested in increasing “self knowledge through numbers”—the QS motto. Kelly believes that QS can help answer questions both prosaic and transcendent. Through it, we might learn how to better manage our email or live to be a hundred years old. It might even answer the central question of the digital age: “What is a human?… Is human nature fixed? Sacred? Infinitely expandable?” Kelly is characteristically optimistic and tools-focused. We believe that the answers to these cosmic questions will be found in the personal. Real change will happen in individuals as they work through self- knowledge. Self-knowledge of one’s body, mind and spirit. Many seek this self- knowledge and we embrace all paths to it. However the particular untrodden path we have chosen to explore here is a rational one: Unless something can be measured, it cannot be improved. So we are on a quest to collect as many personal tools that will assist us in quantifiable measurement of ourselves. -
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of My Self-Experimentation
ARTICLE IN PRESS Medical Hypotheses xxx (2010) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Medical Hypotheses journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/mehy The unreasonable effectiveness of my self-experimentation Seth Roberts * Tsinghua University, Beijing, China University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States article info summary Article history: Over 12 years, my self-experimentation found new and useful ways to improve sleep, mood, health, and Received 16 April 2010 weight. Why did it work so well? First, my position was unusual. I had the subject-matter knowledge of Accepted 20 April 2010 an insider, the freedom of an outsider, and the motivation of a person with the problem. I did not need to Available online xxxx publish regularly. I did not want to display status via my research. Second, I used a powerful tool. Self-experimentation about the brain can test ideas much more easily (by a factor of about 500,000) than conventional research about other parts of the body. When you gather data, you sample from a power- law-like distribution of progress. Most data helps a little; a tiny fraction of data helps a lot. My subject- matter knowledge and methodological skills (e.g., in data analysis) improved the distribution from which I sampled (i.e., increased the average amount of progress per sample). Self-experimentation allowed me to sample from it much more often than conventional research. Another reason my self-experimentation was unusually effective is that, unlike professional science, it resembled the exploration of our ancestors, including foragers, hobbyists, and artisans. Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. -
Big Gaps in Psychology and Economics
2014, 27 (2), 190-203 A. Blaisdell & W. D. Stahlman Special Issue Peer-reviewed How Little We Know: Big Gaps in Psychology and Economics Seth Roberts Tsinghua University University of California, Berkeley A rule about variability is reducing expectation of reward increases variation of the form of rewarded actions. This rule helps animals learn what to do at a food source, something that is rarely studied. Almost all instrumental learning experiments start later in the learning-how-to-forage process. They start after the animal has learned where to find food and how to find it. Because of the exclusions (no study of learning where, no study of learning how), we know almost nothing about those two sorts of learning. The study of human learning by psychologists has a similar gap. Motivation to contact new material (curiosity) is not studied. Walking may increase curiosity, some evidence suggests. In economics, likewise, research is almost all about how people use economically- valuable knowledge. The creation and spread of that knowledge are rarely studied. Several years ago, my colleagues and I proposed a rule: Reducing expectation of reward increases variation in the form of rewarded actions (Gharib, Derby, & Roberts, 2001). It was based on experiments in which reducing a rat’s expectation of reward increased variation in how long it pressed a bar for food. The rule was a new idea about what controls variability, but it also revealed the limits of what animal learning experiments study. By varying how they press a bar, rats learn the best way to press a bar. -
Nutritional Supplements and Infection in the Elderly: Whydothe findings Conflict?
Sternberg&Roberts WhyDothe Findings Conflict? 7/6/06 Page 1 Nutritional supplements and infection in the elderly: Whydothe findings conflict? Saul Sternberga,*,Seth Robertsb aDepartment of Psychology,University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 − 6228, USA bDepartment of Psychology,University of California, Berkeley,CA, 94720 − 1650, USA ______________________________________________________________________ Abstract Background Most of the randomized placebo-controlled trials that have examined the clinical effects of multivitamin-mineral supplements on infection in the elderly have shown no significant effect. The exceptions are three such trials, all using a supplement with the same composition, and all claiming dramatic benefits: a frequently cited study published in 1992, which reported a 50% reduction in the number of days of infection (NDI), and two2002 replication studies. Questions have been raised about the 1992 report; a second report in 2001 based on the same trial, but describing effects of the supplement on mental functions, has been retracted by Nutrition.The primary purpose of the present paper is to evaluate the claims about the effects of supplements on NDI in the tworeplication reports. Methods Examination of internal consistency(outcomes of statistical tests versus reported data); comparison of variability of NDI across individuals in these tworeports with variability in other trials; estimation of the probability of achieving the reported close agreement with the original finding. Results The standard deviations of NDI -
The 4-Hour Body
The 4-Hour Body AN UNCOMMON GUIDE TO RAPID FAT-LOSS, INCREDIBLE SEX, AND BECOMING SUPERHUMAN Timothy Ferriss CROWN ARCHETYPE NEW YORK !"##$%&'()(&*+)+)($*,$-.$#/01233444511 /(6/76/(44478))49: CONTENTS START HERE Thinner, Bigger, Faster, Stronger? How to Use This Book 2 FUNDAMENTALS— FIRST AND FOREMOST The Minimum Effective Dose: From Microwaves to Fat- Loss 17 Rules That Change the Rules: Everything Popular Is Wrong 21 GROUND ZERO—GETTING STARTED AND SWARAJ The Harajuku Moment: The Decision to Become a Complete Human 36 Elusive Bodyfat: Where Are You Really? 44 From Photos to Fear: Making Failure Impossible 58 SUBTRACTING FAT BASICS The Slow- Carb Diet I: How to Lose 20 Pounds in 30 Days Without Exercise 70 The Slow- Carb Diet II: The Finer Points and Common Questions 79 Damage Control: Preventing Fat Gain When You Binge 100 The Four Horsemen of Fat- Loss: PAGG 114 !"##$%&'()(&*+)+)($*,$-.$#/012334445 /(6/76/(44478))49: CONTENTS xi ADVANCED Ice Age: Mastering Temperature to Manipulate Weight 122 The Glucose Switch: Beautiful Number 100 133 The Last Mile: Losing the Final 5–10 Pounds 149 ADDING MUSCLE Building the Perfect Posterior (or Losing 100+ Pounds) 158 Six- Minute Abs: Two Exercises That Actually Work 174 From Geek to Freak: How to Gain 34 Pounds in 28 Days 181 Occam’s Protocol I: A Minimalist Approach to Mass 193 Occam’s Protocol II: The Finer Points 214 IMPROVING SEX The 15- Minute Female Orgasm—Part Un 226 The 15- Minute Female Orgasm—Part Deux 237 Sex Machine I: Adventures in Tripling Testosterone 253 Happy Endings and Doubling -
Reply to Rodgers and Rowe (2002)
UC San Diego UC San Diego Previously Published Works Title Reply to Rodgers and Rowe (2002) Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9rc977dd Journal Psychological Review, 109(3) Authors Roberts, Seth Pashler, Harold Publication Date 2002 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California Reply to Rodgers and Rowe 1 September 18, 2001 Reply to Rodgers and Rowe (2002) Seth Roberts and Harold Pashler University of California, Berkeley and University of California, San Diego Running head: Reply to Rodgers and Rowe Please send proofs to Seth Roberts Department of Psychology University of California Berkeley CA 94720-1650 email [email protected] phone 510.418.7753 fax 510.642.5293 Reply to Rodgers and Rowe 2 September 18, 2001 Abstract That a theory fits data is meaningful only if it was plausible that the theory would not fit. Roberts and Pashler (2000) knew of no enduring theories initially supported by good fits alone (good fits, that is, where it was not clear that the theory could have plausibly failed to fit). Rodgers and Rowe (in press) claim to provide six examples. Their three non- psychological examples (Kepler et al.) are instances of what we consider good practice: How the theory constrained outcomes was clear, so it was easy to see that data might plausibly have contradicted it. Their three psychological examples are flawed in various ways. It remains possible that no examples exist. Reply to Rodgers and Rowe 3 September 18, 2001 Reply to Rodgers and Rowe (2002) Were we to sit down at a table with Rodgers and Rowe, we like to think that the four of us could eventually agree on many things–for instance, that there are important differences between Mendel’s support for his theory and goodness-of-fit evidence for mathematical learning theories.