TIMING IS EVERYTHING The Politics and Processes of New Zealand Defence Acquisition Decision Making TIMING IS EVERYTHING The Politics and Processes of New Zealand Defence Acquisition Decision Making PETER GREENER Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at: http://epress.anu.edu.au/timing_citation.html National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Author: Greener, Peter. Title: Timing is everything : the politics and processes of New Zealand defence acquisition decision making / Peter Greener. ISBN: 9781921536649 (pbk.) 9781921536656 (pdf.) Notes: Includes index. Bibliography. Subjects: New Zealand. Ministry of Defence--Procurement. New Zealand. Defence Force--Procurement. Defense contracts--New Zealand. Military supplies. Government purchasing--New Zealand. New Zealand--Armed Forces--Procurement. Dewey Number: 355.62120993 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. The Canberra Papers on Strategy and Defence series is a collection of publications arising principally from research undertaken at the SDSC. Canberra Papers have been peer reviewed since 2006. All Canberra Papers are available for sale: visit the SDSC website at <http://rspas. anu.edu.au/sdsc/canberra_papers.php> for abstracts and prices. Electronic copies (in pdf format) of most SDSC Working Papers published since 2002 may be downloaded for free from the SDSC website at <http://rspas.anu.edu.au/sdsc/working_papers.php>. The entire Working Papers series is also available on a ‘print on demand’ basis. Strategic and Defence Studies Centre Publications Program Advisory Review Panel: Emeritus Professor Paul Dibb; Professor Desmond Ball; Professor David Horner; Professor Hugh White; Professor William Tow; Professor Anthony Milner; Professor Virginia Hooker; Dr Coral Bell; Dr Pauline Kerr Strategic and Defence Studies Centre Publications Program Editorial Board: Professor Hugh White; Dr Brendan Taylor; Dr Christian Enemark; Miss Meredith Thatcher (series editor) Cover design by ANU E Press Printed by University Printing Services, ANU This edition © 2009 ANU E Press Contents Abstract vii About the Author ix Acknowledgements xi Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii List of Figures and Tables xvii Foreword by Gerald Hensley xix 1. Introduction—The Policy Background and the Policy Framework 1 2. The ANZACS, Part 1—The Frigate that wasn’t a Frigate 23 3. Oranges and Lemons—HMNZS Charles Upham 53 4. ‘No, Minister….’—The ANZAC Frigates, Part II 77 5. ‘The Deal of the Century’—The F-16s 89 6. ‘I see no submarines’—Upgrading the Orions 109 7. Plotting and Sedition, or Necessary Acquisition? The LAV IIIs 127 8. Politics and Processes: Reflections on the Characteristics of the 151 Decision-Making Process Appendix 1: Sole, Prime and Shared Responsibilities 157 Appendix 2: ANZAC Ship Baseline Characteristics 159 Appendix 3: User Requirement 161 Appendix 4: Recommendations of the Final Report of the Air Combat 163 Capability Study—October 1998 Bibliography 165 Index 185 v Abstract The spectre of block obsolescence of major weapons platforms loomed throughout the 1980s, facing successive governments with significant challenges as they worked to make sustainable decisions on replacement or upgraded equipment for the New Zealand Defence Force. This book identifies the critical factors that shaped and influenced defence acquisition decision-making processes from the election of the Fourth Labour Government in 1984 and the subsequent ANZUS crisis, through to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the following `war on terror'. It explores and analyses decision-making processes in relation to six acquisition decisions which have been made over a 20-year period. These are the decisions on the ANZAC frigates; the military sealift ship HMNZS Charles Upham; the second and third decisions on the ANZACs; the lease of the F-16 strike aircraft; the upgrading of the P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft; and the purchase of light armoured vehicles for the ArmyÐthe LAV IIIs. Whilst many factors are brought to bear, this book outlines how it is that New Zealand's own view of the world, external relationships, politics and political influence, and the timing of decisions are amongst the most significant elements that impact on the decision-making process, whilst individual actors play a significant part in shaping the process. Although there has been a great deal of publicity in recent years about rivalry between the Services and the place of bureaucratic politics, this book argues that nonetheless officials continued to work with rigour over time to provide the best judgement and advice possible to Ministers. Three out of six of the case studies which have been analysedÐthe ANZAC frigates, the upgrade of the P-3 Orions and the LAV IIIÐhave been implemented or are in the process of successful implementation. In each case, officials worked to ensure that they provided the Government of the day with the most appropriate advice upon which to base decisions, although that advice has not always been popular. Each case study demonstrates key aspects of the decision-making process, providing specific insights into the way defence decisions are made. vii About the Author Peter Greener is Senior Fellow at the Command and Staff College, New Zealand Defence Force, Trentham, Wellington. Professionally qualified as a psychotherapist, he has a Master of Public Policy from Victoria University of Wellington, and a PhD in Politics from the University of Auckland. Dr Greener joined the New Zealand Defence Force in 2008, having previously been Head of School, School of Public Health & Psychosocial Studies at the Auckland University of Technology where he had been a senior staff member since 1997. Prior to joining AUT he had been Director of the Auckland Family Counselling and Psychotherapy Centre for some 12 years. Dr Greener has been a Visiting Fellow at the University of Bradford, and Fellow of the Asia Pacific College of Security Studies, Honolulu. From 1995±99 he was Chair of the Auckland Branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Dr Greener's research interests include the aetiology, management and resolution of conflict; post conflict development; and the politics of defence decision-making. He brings to these interests the perspective of his many years experience as a psychoanalytic psychotherapist. Dr Greener has edited and contributed to a number of books including Turning the tideÐA New Approach to Conflict Resolution (2001); Push for Peace (2005); Legacy of ArmisticeÐwhy Afghanistan? (2006); The Balkan QuestionÐis there an answer in sight? (2007); and ªvery, very, very good friendsº? New Zealand United States Relationships (2008). He was also a contributing author to The No-Nonsense Guide to Conflict and Peace (2005 and 2006). ix Acknowledgements My grateful thanks go to my PhD supervisor, Associate Professor Steve Hoadley, for his unwavering patience, unstinting support and insightful challenge over the time it took to complete the thesis on which this book is based. During the course of my research I interviewed a large number of officials and Service personnel both active and retired, academics and non-governmental organisation representatives. Their reflections, recollections and considered comment have been of immense value, contributing significantly to my understanding of the politics and processes involved in defence decision making. I would like to thank particularly Gerald Hensley, former Secretary of Defence, who not only gave of his time and expertise in answering my questions, but also kindly agreed to write the Foreword to this publication; and Graham Fortune, Andrew Wierzbicki, Hamish Bunn and Esther Mendoza at the Ministry of Defence, who together ensured that I was furnished with all of the official information that I requested, and spent a considerable amount of time answering my queries. The staff of the Defence Library was also unfailingly helpful, as was Andrew South, librarian at AUT University's North Shore campus, who provided significant support and advice as I searched for research material. I want to thank Captain Helen Marks of the Royal Australian Navy, who put me in touch with Admiral Michael Hudson and Rear Admiral David Campbell, each of whom had a great deal of involvement with the ANZAC frigate project. Kate Dewes at the Christchurch office of the Foundation for Peace Studies Aotearoa-New Zealand provided access to extensive archive material regarding the ANZAC frigate debate. I also want to thank the Gleisner family who always welcomed me and provided hospitality on my many trips to Wellington to undertake research. Finally my love and thanks to my wife and family, whose tolerance and patience has known no bounds over the years. xi Acronyms and Abbreviations ABCA America, Britain, Canada, Australia ADF Australian Defence Force ANZAM Anglo-New Zealand-Australia-Malaya ANZUK Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom ANZUS Australia, New Zealand and United States Treaty APC Armoured Personnel Carrier APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ASLAV Australian Light Armoured Vehicle ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare CA Chief of Army CAB Cabinet CAF Chief of Air Force CDF Chief of Defence Force CDR Closer Defence Relations CGS