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Dean Laslett Phd Thesis Fast track to renewables Low emission electricity for south west Australia by 2030 Meekatharra Murchison Kalbarri Leinster Mount Magnet Coronation Mullewa Laverton Walkaway 2 Geraldton Morawa C Walkaway Mingenew Paynes Find Greenhough River Morawa Mumbida Morawa D Mingenew C Morawa B Warradarge Mingenew B Badgingarra Carnamah Kalgoorlie Emu Downs Eneabba Kalgoorlie DandaraganWongan Hills Nilgen Merredin Southern Cross Goomalling Collgar E 30% PerthPerth Norseman Hyden PV 6840 MW Narrogin Williams Bunbury ST 22800 MWhr Ravensthorpe Bridgetown Esperance Milyeannup Cape Leeuwin Grasmere Albany Albany Dean Laslett BSc, BEng This thesis is presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of Murdoch University 2017 Supervisors: Professor Philip Jennings and Doctor Chris Creagh Produced in the open source LibreOffice word processor and Zotero bibliographic management software. © 2017. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Declaration I declare that this thesis is my own account of my research and contains as its main content work that has not been previously submitted for a degree at any tertiary education institution. ......................................................................... (Dean Laslett 2017) Publications Four journal articles have been composed as part of this thesis: 1. Laslett, D., C. Creagh, and P. Jennings. 2014. “A Method for Generating Synthetic Hourly Solar Radiation Data for Any Location in the South West of Western Australia, in a World Wide Web Page.” Renewable Energy 68 (August): 87–102. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2014.01.015. 2. Laslett, D., C. Creagh, and P. Jennings. 2016. “A Simple Hourly Wind Power Simulation for the South-West Region of Western Australia Using MERRA Data.” Renewable Energy 96 (October): 1003–14. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2016.05.024. 3. Laslett, D., C. Carter, C. Creagh, and P. Jennings. 2017. “A Large-Scale Renewable Electricity Supply System by 2030: Solar, Wind, Energy Efficiency, Storage and Inertia for the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) in Western Australia.” Renewable Energy (under review). 4. Laslett, D. 2017. “Greenhouse emissions and provisional costs for 100% renewable scenarios for the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) in Western Australia, based on solar, wind, energy efficiency, and battery storage.” Renewable Energy and Environmental Sustainability (under review). Abstract Could renewable energy be implemented rapidly and on a large scale to supply the demand of stationary electrical grid systems? This thesis takes a step towards answering this question by simulating 100% renewable energy scenarios for the South-West Interconnected System (SWIS), which supplies electricity to most of the population and industry in the south- west of Western Australia (SWWA). The SWIS is remarkable in that it is both isolated from other grids and currently has little available hydro-power. Solar and wind energy were chosen as the energy sources to be simulated because they are commercially mature technologies, already have a presence in the SWIS, are widely available in many other parts of the world, yet they are geographically and temporally variable. To simulate the operation of rooftop solar PV and large scale solar and wind power plants, heuristic models were built to generate synthetic hourly values of solar and wind energy resources anywhere within the SWWA. An integrated simulation of the SWIS grid was built using simple models of population increase, energy efficiency, distributed battery storage and seasonal power to gas storage. The construction schedules required to build a 100% renewable system for the SWIS by the year 2030 were found to be achievable for scenarios with a mix of solar PV, solar thermal and wind. If solar PV, wind and battery storage capacity could maintain exponential growth, then the required growth rates are less than current global growth rates. Energy efficiency would need to improve at a greater rate, though still moderate, than the current global improvement rate. However, the more that energy efficiency is improved, the lower the total demand, and the easier the task becomes for the other technologies. The findings of this thesis have positive implications for world-wide rapid transformation to low emission electricity generation. Acknowledgements My gratitude, appreciation and thanks to my Supervisors Philip Jennings and Chris Creagh for making this PhD thesis possible, and to Murdoch University for supporting the candidature that allowed this thesis to be developed. Thanks to Craig Carter for much helpful advice and feedback; Martina Calais and Jonathan Whale for helpful comments; Ian Foster, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia, Jatin Sala, and Tom Lyons in providing meteorological station data and for access to supercomputer climatic data. Thanks also to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for providing open access to the MERRA database. Thanks to Dan Churach for many funny or stimulating conversations which reaffirmed the reasons to stay motivated on this project; my writing space mates Graeme Thompson, Jane Genovese, Keegan Martens, and Jessie He, we kept our dreams alive together. The author Kim Stanley Robinson challenged global society to change. Justin Wood channelled much insightful analysis onto social media which also helped with motivation and writing inspiration. Thanks to Adzira Hussain, Siti Salmi Jamali, Maryam Shahabi, Asma Meda and Zakia Afroz for making me welcome in the IT PhD room with many good times and yummie food, and to all my friends, colleagues and bush walking companions who helped keep me sort of sane throughout this time. Dean Laslett 2017 Table of Contents 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................1 1.1 Global warming..................................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Greenhouse emissions from stationary electrical generation, and the SWIS grid...........2 1.2 Pathways to emissions reduction....................................................................................................3 1.3 Research questions.............................................................................................................................4 1.4 Methodology.......................................................................................................................................5 1.5 Thesis structure..................................................................................................................................6 2 Overview of low emissions technologies..............................................................9 2.1 Nuclear power....................................................................................................................................9 2.1.1 Current status..........................................................................................................................10 2.1.2 Life-time of reserves...............................................................................................................11 2.1.3 Grid penetration......................................................................................................................13 2.1.4 Radioactive waste...................................................................................................................14 2.1.5 Safety.........................................................................................................................................15 2.1.6 New reactor designs...............................................................................................................17 2.1.7 Breeder and burner reactors..................................................................................................18 2.1.8 Thorium cycle..........................................................................................................................19 2.1.9 Nuclear fusion.........................................................................................................................20 2.1 Carbon capture and storage (CCS)................................................................................................20 2.1.1 Global potential.......................................................................................................................22 2.1.2 Australian potential................................................................................................................22 2.1.3 Current technological status..................................................................................................23 i 2.1.4 Advantages and problems of CCS........................................................................................24 2.1.5 Lifetime of world fossil fuel reserves...................................................................................26 2.2 Renewable energy............................................................................................................................27 2.2.1 Global potential of renewable energy..................................................................................27 2.2.2 Solar energy.............................................................................................................................28 2.2.2.1 Solar PV........................................................................................................................29
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