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Home , Alek Skarlatos, Dan Feltes, Michelle Fischbach, Moe Davis, Nicole Galloway

Election Wrap Up and Look Ahead

November 4, 2020 0 Index

Big Picture Key Takeaways Election Results House of Representatives Senate Governors Congressional Leadership Committee Leadership Lame Duck Agenda Key Dates We are Invariant. Contact us.

1 Big Picture

Amid unprecedented early voting and historic total turnout under coronavirus pandemic conditions, voting in the 2020 election is complete. And while the count will continue, it is clear many voters like the political team they are on. In an era of taking sides – with cable news and social media offering tailored information streams and voters able to choose their own set of facts – results so far reveal an increasingly tribal electorate. President spoke early this morning from the East Room of the White House to call the vote count underway a “major fraud on our nation” and threatened he is “going to the US Supreme Court.” He described this as a “very sad moment” and called on “all voting to stop.” He concluded by claiming: “We will win this, and as far as I’m concerned, we already have won it.” Former Vice President spoke from a drive-in rally in Wilmington, Delaware to say he believes he is “on track to win this election” and that “it ain’t over until every ballot is counted.” While both candidates can credibly claim momentum going forward, vote tallies have Biden steadily adding votes in Arizona and Nevada and awaiting the count of more than one million ballots in Pennsylvania. President Trump held his ground with victories in Florida and Ohio. Patterns from 2016 reemerged, as some polls failed to capture the depth of the president’s support or the inroads he appears to have made with key constituencies in southern Florida, Texas, and elsewhere. Of course, the presidential contest was not the only race on the ballot. Senate Democrats remain in the hunt to flip control of the Senate, but odds are dimming. They picked up seats in Arizona and Colorado, but visions of a blue wave sweeping the upper chamber failed to materialize. Republicans held the open seat in Kansas and picked up Alabama. Republican incumbents beat back well-funded challengers in Iowa, Maine, Montana, and South Carolina. The potential Democratic pickup in North Carolina seems unlikely to materialize – the race remains undecided but is trending Republican. One of Georgia’s two incumbent Republicans standing for election may have avoided a runoff with more than 50 percent of the vote. The Georgia special election will go to a runoff on January 5 between incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock. Although many races remain undecided, Democrats are on track to retain control of the House. Their drive to expand that majority appears to have faltered, as at least seven House Democrats lost their seats, including freshman representing districts won by Trump in 2016 and 15-term incumbent Rep. (D-MN). The nation’s governors remain largely unchanged. Democrats retained three seats, and Republicans kept seven with a pickup in the open Montana race. What follows is what we know this morning and what we are watching in the hours and days to come.

2 Key Takeaways

Pollsters had a rough night (again). Numerous Expect Democrats to soul search. Losses among pre-election polls had Biden leading President House Democrats and a smaller-than-expected Trump by as much as ten points nationally and pickup map may prompt Democrats to start smaller margins in swing states. However, as asking whether it is time for a party shakeup. This states report results, it is clear the presidency will is the fourth cycle Democratic Senate candidates be decided on narrow margins. Similar to 2016, will seemingly come up short. Republicans defend some are attributing the polling errors to the another 22 seats in 2022, and pressure will be “silent” Trump voter – those unwilling to declare high for Democrats to recalibrate their approach. their support publicly. Public and private polling also missed big in congressional races with Republican women mount a comeback. Republicans outperforming up and down the Republican women watched as a wave of ballot. Democratic women were elected and their numbers drop to historic lows in 2018. In President Trump outperformed projections. response, the remaining GOP women rallied to Nationally, President Trump received 63 million close the gender gap through recruitment and votes in 2016 and is on pace to eclipse that total. hands-on campaign assistance, targeting female His better-than-expected performance in key candidates in suburban districts to attract battleground states also appears to have helped Republican voters rejecting the president. It paid vulnerable down-ballot Senate candidates, like off – at least six Republican women will join the Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa and Sen. Steve Daines in 117th Congress, with many races too close to call. Montana. Going into the election pollster Bill McInturff noted: “Among the roughly 3 out of 10 Latinos are not a monolith. President Trump people who say they have not voted yet, they’re increased his 2016 vote count in South Florida by voting for Donald Trump by almost 30 points.” at least two hundred thousand votes, where two Democratic House incumbents were also Mitch McConnell is the election’s biggest winner. defeated, at least in part because of the The final Senate margin depends on a few races president’s support from Cuban- and Venezuelan- too close to call and at least one January 5 runoff Americans. While Biden seems to have won over in Georgia, but Senate Republicans are well Latinos in Arizona, those in Florida proved positioned to maintain their majority. Despite a receptive to Republican messaging on the threat “Green Tsunami” fundraising advantage, of socialism from Democrats. Democrats have so far only flipped two seats in Arizona and Colorado, netting one because of the Youth voters turn out in key battleground loss in Alabama, with four too close to call. states. Early results suggest the youth vote (ages 18-29) could exceed 50 percent in swing states, building on historic 2018 turnout and a double- digit jump from 2016 turnout in the low forties.

3 Progressives may have to temper their States conducted an unprecedented election expectations. The left’s vision of a Biden New with few snags. An election that some observers Deal, progressive tax reform, aggressive Wall expected could be marked by long lines, polling Street regulators, social justice reform including station problems, voter intimidation, foreign policing, an expanded Supreme Court, and interference, or other impediments saw virtually reforms to the Senate’s legislative filibuster may none of that. Instead, local election officials ran have to wait. A Biden-Harris Administration could largely smooth elections that were able to face a closely divided but largely intransigent accommodate a record turnout. Senate in 2021, one opposed to confirming left- leaning federal judges and liberal political appointees and one bent on again blocking progressive policy proposals that emerge from the House. Are mailed ballots the future? The coronavirus pandemic is an accelerant. For states, that meant quickly adapting their primary elections and then applying lessons learned to the general election. More than 100 million voters cast ballots before November 3, nearly 73 percent of the entire 2016 turnout. Voters expect new, better, faster as consumers, and it is difficult to imagine them accepting a step back post-pandemic. Look to see additional states join Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington in conducting elections by mailed ballot.

4 Election Results House of Representatives

Democratic hopes were high to expand the already historic House majority. While Democrats will hold onto control, Republicans are making gains. With 43 races too close to call, Republicans flipped seven seats – six of the Republican pickups were women – for a net gain of five, and Democrats flipped two seats in North Carolina. The 117th Congress will welcome at least 56 freshmen, 49 of whom will fill open seats. The biggest blow to incumbents was Republican Michelle Fischbach’s win over 15-term Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN), the chairman of the House Agriculture Committee.

District Party Flip Incumbent/Candidate (Vacating) Challenger AK-AL R Alyse Galvin AR-02 R Joyce Elliott AZ-01 D Tom O'Halleran Tiffany Shedd AZ-06 R Hiral Tipirneni CA-21 D TJ Cox CA-25 R Christy Smith CA-48 D Harley Rouda Michelle Park Steel CA-50 R (Vacant) Ammar Campa-Najjar CO-03 R (Tipton) Diane Mitsch Bush FL-15 R Scott Franklin (Spano) Alan Cohn FL-26 D ✓ Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Carlos Gimenez FL-27 D ✓ Donna Shalala GA-07 R Rich McCormick (Woodall) IA-01 D ✓ Abby Finkenauer IA-02 D Rita Hart (Loebsack) Mariannette Miller-Meeks IA-03 D David Young IL-13 R Rodney Davis Betsy Dirksen Londrigan IL-17 D Esther Joy King IN-05 R (Brooks) Christina Hale MI-03 I (Amash) Hillary Scholten MI-06 R Jon Hoadley MI-08 D Paul Junge MI-11 D Eric Esshaki MN-01 R Dan Feehan MN-07 D ✓ Collin Peterson Michelle Fischbach MO-02 R Jill Schupp MT-AL R (Gianforte) Kathleen Williams

6 District Party Flip Incumbent/Candidate (Vacating) Challenger NC-08 R Richard Hudson Patricia Timmons-Goodson NC-09 R Cynthia Wallace NC-11 R (Vacant) Moe Davis NE-02 R Kara Eastman NJ-02 R Amy Kennedy NJ-07 D Tom Kean Jr. NM-02 D ✓ Xochitl Torres Small NV-03 D Dan Rodimer NY-01 R Nancy Goroff NY-02 R (King) Jackie Gordon NY-11 D Max Rose NY-22 D Anthony Brindisi NY-24 R Dana Balter OH-01 R Kate Schroder OK-05 D ✓ Kendra Horn OR-04 D Peter DeFazio Alek Skarlatos PA-01 R Brian Fitzpatrick Christina Finello PA-08 D Jim Bognet PA-10 R Eugene DePasquale SC-01 D ✓ Joe Cunningham TX-03 R Lulu Seikaly TX-10 R Michael McCaul Mike Siegel TX-21 R Wendy Davis TX-22 R (Olson) Sri Preston Kulkarni TX-23 R (Hurd) Gina Ortiz Jones TX-24 R (Marchant) Candace Valenzuela TX-31 R John Carter Donna Imam UT-04 D Ben McAdams VA-02 D Scott Taylor VA-05 R (Riggleman) Cameron Webb VA-07 D Nick Freitas WA-03 R Carolyn Long WI-03 D Derrick Van Orden Winners noted in bold.

7 Key results

PICKUPS So far, Republicans flipped at least seven seats, five of which are in states Trump won in 2016, and Democrats picked up two. FL-26: Freshman Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) lost to Republican Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez FL-27: Freshman Rep. Donna Shalala (D-FL) lost to Republican Maria Elvira Salazar IA-01: Freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA) lost to Republican candidate Ashley Hinson NC-02: Democrat Deborah Ross defeated Republican candidate Alan Swain in this open seat NC-06: Democrat defeated Republican candidate Lee Haywood in this open seat MN-07: Fifteen-term Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) lost to Republican Michelle Fischbach NM-02: Freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-NM) lost to Republican Yvette Herrell OK-05: Freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) lost to Republican Stephanie Bice SC-01: Freshman Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC) was unseated by Republican candidate Nancy Mace

HOLDS AR-02: Three-term incumbent Rep. French Hill (R-AR) won reelection against Democrat Joyce Elliott FL-15: Republican Scott Franklin beat Democrat Alan Cohn after defeating Rep. Ross Spano (R-FL) in the primary GA-06: Freshman Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA) defeated Republican challenger Karen Handel in a district Trump won in 2016 IA-03: Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) beat Republican challenger David Young IL-13: Four-term Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL) claimed a narrow win over Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan MO-02: Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO) won a fifth term defeating Democrat Jill Schupp

8 NC-11: Republican Madison Cawthorn defeated Democrat Moe Davis in a tight race to fill the vacant seat left by White House Chief of Staff and former Rep. (R-NC). Cawthorn will be the youngest member of the 117th Congress at 25. He was critical of the GOP throughout the campaign and could be a thorn in the side of Republican leadership. NE-02: Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) defeated Democrat Kara Eastman for a third term NH-01: Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) held off Republican challenger Matt Mowers for a second term in a district Trump won in 2016 NJ-03: Freshman Rep. (D-NJ) beat Republican challenger David Richter in a district Trump won in 2016 NJ-05: In a district with some of the most conservative communities in northern New Jersey and which Trump won in 2016, Rep. (D-NJ) won a third term after defeating Republican Frank Pallotta NJ-11: Freshman Rep. (D-NJ) held off Republican challenger Rosemary Becchi in a district Trump won in 2016 OH-01: Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) defeated Democrat Kate Schroder and will return for a sixth term OR-04: Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) beat back a late-surging challenge from Republican Alek Skarlato to secure his 18th term TX-03: Rep. Van Taylor (R-TX) defeated Democrat Lulu Seikaly TX-21: Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) beat Democrat Wendy Davis TX-22: Republican Troy Nehls will fill the open seat of retiring Rep. Pete Olson (R-TX), defeating Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni TX-23: Republican Tony Gonzales will fill the seat of retiring Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) in a narrow win over Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones TX-31: Rep. John Carter (R-TX) will return for a tenth term, defeating Democrat Donna Imam VA-02: Freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) defeated Republican challenger Scott Taylor to return for a second term VA-05: Republican candidate Bob Good defeated Democratic candidate Cameron Webb to fill the open seat left by Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-VA) after his primary loss.

9 TOO CLOSE TO CALL AZ-06: Democratic candidate Hiral Tipirneni holds a narrow lead over Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) CA-21: Republican David Valadao is leading freshman Rep. TJ Cox (D-CA) CA-25: Republican Mike Garcia won the special election in May to replace Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA), but Democrat Christy Smith is leading the rematch for a full term CA-39: Republican holds a slight edge over freshman Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-CA) CA-48: Freshman Rep. Harley Rouda (D-CA) and Republican Michelle Park Steel are neck-and-neck GA-07: Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux carries a narrow lead over Republican Rich McCormick to replace retiring Rep. Rob Woodall (R-GA) IA-02: In the race for retiring Rep. David Loebsack’s (D-IA) seat, Democrat Rita Hart and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks are neck-and-neck IN-05: Republican Victoria Spartz defeated Democrat Christina Hale to hold the seat of retiring Rep. Susan Brooks (R-IN) NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D-NY) is behind Republican challenger Nicole Malliotakis NY-18: Rep. (D-NY) leads Republican challenger Chele Farley NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) leads Republican challenger Kyle Van De Water NY-22: Former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) is leading freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-NY) NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R-NY) is leading Democrat Dana Balter for a fourth term TX-24: Republican Beth Van Duyne leads progressive Democrat Candace Valenzuela in the race to replace retiring Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-TX) UT-04: Freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) holds a narrow lead over Republican former NFL player Burgess Owens VA-07: Freshman Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is statistically tied with Republican challenger Nick Freitas

10 Senate

Republicans faced a challenging map this cycle, defending 23 seats to Democrats’ 12. Of the 15 competitive races, 12 were held by Republican incumbents. But Republican senators outperformed polling across the board, likely benefitting from President Trump’s strong performance. Republicans look poised to maintain their Senate majority, despite the defeats of Sens. Cory Gardner (R-CO) and Martha McSally (R-AZ). Tommy Tuberville defeated incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL). Four races are too close to call in Alaska, Georgia (Perdue), Michigan, and North Carolina. Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) conceded to Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) in the Georgia special election requiring a 50 percent majority to win. This race now heads to a January 5 runoff between the top two vote getters Loeffler and Democratic candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock.

State Party Flip Incumbent/Candidate (Vacating) Challenger Alabama D ✓ Doug Jones Tommy Tuberville Alaska R Dan Sullivan Al Gross Arizona R ✓ Martha McSally Mark Kelly Colorado R ✓ Cory Gardner John Hickenlooper Georgia R David Perdue Jon Ossoff Georgia Raphael Warnock / R Kelly Loeffler (special) Doug Collins Iowa R Joni Ernst Theresa Greenfield Kansas R Roger Marshall (Roberts) Barbara Bollier Maine R Susan Collins Sara Gideon Michigan D Gary Peters John James D Jason Lewis Montana R Steve Daines Steve Bullock North Carolina R Thom Tillis Cal Cunningham South Carolina R Lindsey Graham Jaime Harrison Texas R John Cornyn MJ Hegar Winners noted in bold. Runoff in italics.

11 Key results

PICKUPS Alabama: Republican former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville defeated Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), flipping the most vulnerable Democratic seat in the Senate. Tuberville led Jones throughout in both fundraising and the polls, having defeated former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) in the primary election. Arizona: Former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) in Arizona’s special election to serve the remaining two years of the late Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) term. Kelly outraised and outpolled McSally, who was the most vulnerable Republican incumbent throughout the cycle. Colorado: Former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper defeated Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Hickenlooper was a popular governor and polled ahead of Gardner since announcing his campaign in August 2019. Hickenlooper’s likely double-digit margin reflects the state’s changing demographics (Sen. Michael Bennett (D-CO) won in 2016 by six).

HOLDS Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) won reelection after a bruising race against Democratic candidate Theresa Greenfield, having trailed her opponent for much of the campaign. Trump outperformed expectations in the state, bolstering down-ballot contests. Kansas: Rep. Roger Marshall (R-KS) defeated Democrat Barbara Bollier for the open seat held by retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS). After a difficult primary against Kris Kobach, Marshall consolidated support to defeat the better-funded Bollier. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) beat back a challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon in a state won by Biden. Minnesota: Despite some last-minute angst, Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) won her reelection race handily, defeating challenger Jason Lewis by almost five percent. Montana: Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) won reelection, defeating Democratic Governor Steve Bullock (D- MT). South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) handily defeated Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, who shattered fundraising records and who polling suggested was neck-and-neck. Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) won reelection, defeating Democrat MJ Hegar. Cornyn raised more money and outpolled Hegar throughout.

12 TOO CLOSE TO CALL Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) leads Democrat Al Gross by a substantial margin from in-person votes, but mailed ballots and early votes will not be counted until November 10, delaying results. Gross made the contest competitive, outraising Sullivan and polling within the margin of error. Georgia: Republican Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff with more than 50 percent of the vote, probably avoiding a runoff. Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel pulled conservative votes away from Perdue. Georgia Special: Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) conceded to Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, setting up a runoff on January 5 with Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock after none of the three secured more than 50 percent of the vote. The odds get longer for a Warnock victory in January in a head-to-head runoff, especially if Perdue succeeds outright against Ossoff. Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) trails Republican John James by a slim margin. If Trump performs well in the state, the down-ballot effect could give James the boost needed to succeed. North Carolina: The race between Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Democratic State Senator Cal Cunningham is razor-thin. Cunningham led Tillis in both polling and fundraising throughout the election cycle, but the late revelation of a sexting scandal halted Cunningham’s momentum. Ballots postmarked by Election Day will be accepted until November 12, which could delay a final call.

13 Governors

Eleven states held gubernatorial contests yesterday. Going into Election Day, there were only three toss- up states – , Montana, and North Carolina. Unlike Senate and House races, there was little change to party control across the country. Democrats retained three seats, and Republicans kept seven with a pickup in Montana. Governors were scrutinized for their coronavirus pandemic response but in the end, voters largely decided to stick with the candidate they know. Missouri: Incumbent Republican Governor won reelection with more than 55 percent of the vote, beating Democratic Nicole Galloway. Montana: Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) bested Democratic Lt. Governor Mike Cooney. North Carolina: Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won reelection, defeating Republican Lt. Governor Dan Forest. Democrats hoped to flip at least one chamber of the statehouse, but Cooper heads into a second term with a Republican-controlled general assembly.

State Party Flip Incumbent/Candidate (Vacating) Challenger Delaware D John Carney Julianne Murray Indiana R Eric Holcomb Woodrow A. Myers Missouri R Mike Parson Nicole Galloway Montana D ✓ Mike Cooney (Bullock) Greg Gianforte R Dan Feltes North Carolina D Roy Cooper Dan Forest North Dakota R Doug Burgum Shelley Lenz Utah R Spencer Cox (Herbert) Chris Peterson Vermont R Phil Scott David Zuckerman Washington D Jay Inslee Loren Culp West Virginia R Jim Justice Ben Salango Winners noted in bold.

14 Congressional Leadership Democratic Leadership

HOUSE The is looking at the possibility of a smaller majority, which may throw leadership elections into question. Prior to the election, the Caucus was scheduled to select its slate of leadership on November 18 through a series of staggered in-person and proxy voting, similar to official voting on the House floor. Speaker (D-CA), Majority Leader (D-MD), Majority Whip (D-SC), and Caucus Chair (D-NY) are all currently running unopposed and are all expected to be reelected, but the losses on election night could provide an opportunity for a challenge. In addition, there are contested races between popular, and ambitious, Members in the lower ranks of leadership which could prove contentious.

The fourth-ranked Assistant Leader slot is vacant, with Rep. Ben Ray Luján’s (D-NM) Senate win. Current Vice Chair (D-MA) is running against Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC) Chairman (D-RI) and BOLD PAC Chairman Tony Cardenas (D-CA) for that position. Reps. (D-CA), Deb Haaland (D-NM), and (D-IL) are vying for the open vice chair position. In the 116th Congress, Speaker Pelosi opened some historically appointed seats to be elected positions by the majority and expanded her leadership team to include newer Members. DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos (D-IL) is unlikely to remain in that position, but with election results still being tabulated, next steps for the DCCC are murky. The Caucus will eliminate the DPCC chair position but will still elect three DPCC co-chairs. Rep. (D-CO) is running along with current co-chairs Reps. (D-MI) and (D- CA). Reps. (D-TX), (D-CO), and (D-MI) will vie for one leadership slot dedicated to someone serving fewer than ten years. The incoming freshman class will elect at least one leadership representative. A wild card is whether any Members serving in leadership are tapped to serve in a potential Biden Administration.

16 16 SENATE Despite current results suggesting Democrats will not flip enough seats to control the Senate in January, we do not expect significant changes to the Democratic leadership team. Senator Schumer’s colleagues will likely reelect him Democratic Leader during closed-door elections in the coming weeks. Other leadership who will stay in place: • Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) • Assistant Leader Patty Murray (D-WA) • Democratic Policy & Communications Committee Chair (DPCC) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) • DPCC Vice Chair Joe Manchin (D-WV) • Conference Vice Chair (D-MA) • Conference Vice Chair Mark Warner (D-VA) • Steering Committee Chair (D-MN) • Outreach Chair (I-VT) • Conference Secretary Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) The Caucus will likely elect a new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair to replace Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) and Senator-elect Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) may run, the latter of whom is coming off a successful term as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

17 Republican Leadership

HOUSE Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is in a strong position to remain Republican Leader following a stronger-than-expected showing. Touting his vote counting expertise, McCarthy recently claimed to have the votes sewn up (he only needs a majority of the Republican Caucus to remain leader). Representative (R-LA) is expected to remain Republican Whip. While Rep. (R-WY) is likely to remain at the helm of the House Republican Conference, she rubbed some colleagues the wrong way by publicly rebuking the president and backing a failed primary challenge to a conservative colleague. Rumors abound there is an effort to recruit someone to challenge her, but pushing out the highest-ranking woman in GOP leadership will be difficult. National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman (R-MN) is expected to seek another term. Flipping at least seven Democratic seats in what was thought to be a “Blue Wave” year only strengthens Emmer’s odds. Rep. (R-IN) is expected to be elected to the open Republican Study Committee chairmanship. Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is vacating that post to run for Republican Conference vice chair, an open position after Rep. Mark Walker’s (R-NC) retirement. Policy Committee Chairman Rep. (R-MS) and Conference Secretary Rep. (R-MO) are both expected to retain their positions. Republican leadership elections are November 17. SENATE Republican leadership will largely remain in place. Following the smooth confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court and a steady hand through election day, few see any threat to Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). • Whip Sen. John Thune (R-SD) • Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-WY) and Vice Chair Joni Ernst (R-IA) • Policy Committee Chair (R-MO) Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is the leading candidate to replace Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) as National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair.

18 18 Committee Leadership House of Representatives

Democrats generally decide committee leadership based on seniority while Republicans operate under term limits. The most high-profile change will come at the House Appropriations Committee, where Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-NY) is retiring along with two key subcommittee chairmen – Reps. Pete Visclosky (D-IN) and Jose Serrano (D-NY). The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee is expected to meet the week of November 30 to make its recommendations for chairmen, which will then be put to a full caucus vote. The House Republican Steering Committee is also expected to meet in November to choose nine new ranking members. Our projections for committee chairs and ranking members are below, including the Members expected to challenge for open positions atop committees.

AGRICULTURE BUDGET • Chairman – Reps. David Scott (D-GA), Jim • Chairman – Rep. (D-KY) Costa (D-CA), Marcia Fudge (D-OH) [Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) lost] • Ranking Member – Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) [Rep. (R-AR) will give up the • Ranking Member – Reps. G.T. Thompson (R- ranking member position to take over as PA), Rick Crawford (R-AR) [Rep. Mike Conaway ranking member at the House Appropriations (R-TX) is retiring] Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government] APPROPRIATIONS EDUCATION AND LABOR • Chairwoman – Reps. (D-OH), Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Debbie Wasserman • Chairman – Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) Schultz (D-FL) [Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY) is retiring] • Ranking Member – Rep. (R-NC) • Ranking Member – Rep. (R-TX) ENERGY AND COMMERCE ARMED SERVICES • Chairman – Rep. (D-NJ) • Chairman – Rep. (D-WA) • Ranking Member – Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) [Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) is • Ranking Member – Reps. Joe Wilson (R-SC), retiring] Michael Turner (R-OH), Mike Rogers (R-AL) [Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX) is retiring] FINANCIAL SERVICES • Chairwoman – Rep. (D-CA) • Ranking Member – Rep. Patrick McHenry (R- NC)

20 FOREIGN AFFAIRS RULES • Chairman – Reps. (D-CA), • Chairman – Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) (D-NY), Joaquin Castro (D-TX) [Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY) lost his primary] • Ranking Member – Rep. (R-OK) • Ranking Member – Rep. Michael McCaul (R- SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY TX) • Chairwoman – Rep. (D- HOMELAND SECURITY TX) • Chairman – Rep. (D-MS) • Ranking Member – Rep. Frank Lucas (R-OK) • Ranking Member – Reps. John Katko (R-NY), SMALL BUSINESS (R-LA) [Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) is • Chairwoman – Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) challenging for the ranking member on House Armed Services] • Ranking Member – Reps. (R- OH), (R-OK) [Rep. Steve Chabot (R- HOUSE ADMINISTRATION OH) is term-limited) • Chairwoman – Rep. (D-CA) TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE • Ranking Member – Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL) • Chairman – Rep. Pete DeFazio (D-OR) INTELLIGENCE • Ranking Member – Rep. (R-MO) • Chairman – Rep. (D-CA) VETERANS’ AFFAIRS • Ranking Member – Reps. Michael Turner (R- • OH), (R-OH) [Rep. Chairman – Rep. (D-CA) (R-CA) is term-limited] • Ranking Member – Reps. (R-FL), (R-MI), (R-IL) [Rep. Phil JUDICIARY Roe (R-TN) is retiring] • Chairman – Rep. (D-NY) WAYS AND MEANS • Ranking Member – Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) • Chairman – Rep. (D-MA) NATURAL RESOURCES • Ranking Member – Rep. (R-TX) • Chairman – Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) • Ranking Member – Reps. (R- CO), (R-VA), Tom McClintock (R- CA) [Rep. Rob Bishop (R-UT) is retiring] OVERSIGHT AND REFORM • Chairwoman – Rep. (D-NY) • Ranking Member – Rep. (R-KY) [Comer took over as ranking member after Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) resigned to serve as White House chief of staff]

21 Lame Duck Agenda Lame Duck Agenda

There is plenty of work left to be done in the final weeks of 2020. Until the dust settles, it is unclear how robust of a lame duck legislative session we will see. The Senate and House return on November 9 and 16, respectively. Both chambers will recess for Thanksgiving. The expiration of government funding on December 11 provides a natural backstop for the 116th congressional session. In the four short weeks that at least one chamber is in session, the laundry list of what would normally be considered “must pass” legislation is long. • Reauthorization of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) (failure to do so would mark the first time in its 60-year history) • A set of health extenders are set to expire on December 11, followed by traditional tax extenders at the end of December • Many in Congress would also like to pass an additional coronavirus relief package to help bridge the gap between the end of the year and the new Congress. A relief package may need to go beyond the list of issues that Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Steven Mnuchin were negotiating and include extending previous provisions set to expire at the end of the year. • Funding for the government expires on December 11. It is likely that if Congress fails to address some of these “must pass” items, lawmakers will tack areas of agreement onto a government funding bill or further continuing resolution. Here is historical context for how previous sessions of Congress functioned during tumultuous lame ducks: • 2000 was the last time election results were not determined on Election Day. Congress passed a series of short-term continuing resolutions before agreeing on a full-year funding package in mid- December after Bush v. Gore was settled. • After the 2008 election, Congress could not come to an agreement on an aid package for U.S. automakers following the financial crisis, leading Presidents George W. Bush and each to take executive action to provide relief to the industry. • After the 2014 midterm election when the GOP gained control of the Senate, Democrats approved 252 nominations during the lame duck period. Congress also agreed on a continuing resolution to fund the government through the end of fiscal year 2015 and other must-pass legislation including the National Defense Authorization Act in mid-December.

23 Key Dates November 2020 9 Senate reconvenes 11 Veterans Day (federal holiday) 12 Orientation for incoming House freshmen 16 House reconvenes 17 House Republican Caucus leadership elections 18-19 House Democratic Caucus leadership elections 23-27 House and Senate recess 26 Thanksgiving Day (federal holiday) 30 House and Senate reconvene

December 2020 5 Louisiana runoff (if needed) 8 Electoral College Safe Harbor Deadline (35 days post-election) 10 Hanukkah begins at sundown Continuing Resolution expires 11 Various Medicare and Medicaid extenders expire House adjourns (tentative) 14 Electoral College delegates vote in their states 18 Senate adjourns (tentative) 25 Christmas Tax extenders expire Several Section 301 (China) tariff exclusions expire CARES Act provisions expire, including Treasury, state and local government loan authority, various temporary tax breaks, emergency sick and family leave provisions, 31 pandemic unemployment assistance, provision that allows tax exempt employer contributions to employees' student loans, and temporary relaxation of section 163(j) business interest expense limitation Deadline for small businesses to rehire employees included in their PPP loan calculation January 2021

1 New Year’s Day 4 117th Congress convenes (tentative) 5 Georgia runoff(s) (if needed) 6 Joint Session of Congress to count Electoral College votes and certify results 18 Martin Luther King Jr. Day (federal holiday) 20 Fifty-Ninth Presidential Inauguration

25 We are Invariant.

Teal Baker Mark Besonen Janie Blanco Chris Bohórquez Carolyn Coda Quincy Enoch [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sofia Ferber Mark Friedmann Lawren Geer Erin Hayden Mark Ingram Tanea Jackson [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Laura Joshua Ben Klein Noah Kowalski Varun Krovi Penny Lee Anne MacMillan [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Tim Martin Annabell McWherter Jonny Montano Annie Palisi Heather Podesta Eric Rosen [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Matt Russell Lindley Kratovil Sherer Joey Smith Stephanie Smith Mary Beth Stanton [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Landon Stropko Nicole Venable Jenny Werwa Katie Wise Lyle Yoder [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

26 Contact us.