Election Wrap Up and Look Ahead November 4, 2020 0 Index Big Picture Key Takeaways Election Results House of Representatives Senate Governors Congressional Leadership Committee Leadership Lame Duck Agenda Key Dates We are Invariant. Contact us. 1 Big Picture Amid unprecedented early voting and historic total turnout under coronavirus pandemic conditions, voting in the 2020 election is complete. And while the count will continue, it is clear many voters like the political team they are on. In an era of taking sides – with cable news and social media offering tailored information streams and voters able to choose their own set of facts – results so far reveal an increasingly tribal electorate. President Donald Trump spoke early this morning from the East Room of the White House to call the vote count underway a “major fraud on our nation” and threatened he is “going to the US Supreme Court.” He described this as a “very sad moment” and called on “all voting to stop.” He concluded by claiming: “We will win this, and as far as I’m concerned, we already have won it.” Former Vice President Joe Biden spoke from a drive-in rally in Wilmington, Delaware to say he believes he is “on track to win this election” and that “it ain’t over until every ballot is counted.” While both candidates can credibly claim momentum going forward, vote tallies have Biden steadily adding votes in Arizona and Nevada and awaiting the count of more than one million ballots in Pennsylvania. President Trump held his ground with victories in Florida and Ohio. Patterns from 2016 reemerged, as some polls failed to capture the depth of the president’s support or the inroads he appears to have made with key constituencies in southern Florida, Texas, and elsewhere. Of course, the presidential contest was not the only race on the ballot. Senate Democrats remain in the hunt to flip control of the Senate, but odds are dimming. They picked up seats in Arizona and Colorado, but visions of a blue wave sweeping the upper chamber failed to materialize. Republicans held the open seat in Kansas and picked up Alabama. Republican incumbents beat back well-funded challengers in Iowa, Maine, Montana, and South Carolina. The potential Democratic pickup in North Carolina seems unlikely to materialize – the race remains undecided but is trending Republican. One of Georgia’s two incumbent Republicans standing for election may have avoided a runoff with more than 50 percent of the vote. The Georgia special election will go to a runoff on January 5 between incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock. Although many races remain undecided, Democrats are on track to retain control of the House. Their drive to expand that majority appears to have faltered, as at least seven House Democrats lost their seats, including freshman representing districts won by Trump in 2016 and 15-term incumbent Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN). The nation’s governors remain largely unchanged. Democrats retained three seats, and Republicans kept seven with a pickup in the open Montana race. What follows is what we know this morning and what we are watching in the hours and days to come. 2 Key Takeaways Pollsters had a rough night (again). Numerous Expect Democrats to soul search. Losses among pre-election polls had Biden leading President House Democrats and a smaller-than-expected Trump by as much as ten points nationally and pickup map may prompt Democrats to start smaller margins in swing states. However, as asking whether it is time for a party shakeup. This states report results, it is clear the presidency will is the fourth cycle Democratic Senate candidates be decided on narrow margins. Similar to 2016, will seemingly come up short. Republicans defend some are attributing the polling errors to the another 22 seats in 2022, and pressure will be “silent” Trump voter – those unwilling to declare high for Democrats to recalibrate their approach. their support publicly. Public and private polling also missed big in congressional races with Republican women mount a comeback. Republicans outperforming up and down the Republican women watched as a wave of ballot. Democratic women were elected and their numbers drop to historic lows in 2018. In President Trump outperformed projections. response, the remaining GOP women rallied to Nationally, President Trump received 63 million close the gender gap through recruitment and votes in 2016 and is on pace to eclipse that total. hands-on campaign assistance, targeting female His better-than-expected performance in key candidates in suburban districts to attract battleground states also appears to have helped Republican voters rejecting the president. It paid vulnerable down-ballot Senate candidates, like off – at least six Republican women will join the Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa and Sen. Steve Daines in 117th Congress, with many races too close to call. Montana. Going into the election pollster Bill McInturff noted: “Among the roughly 3 out of 10 Latinos are not a monolith. President Trump people who say they have not voted yet, they’re increased his 2016 vote count in South Florida by voting for Donald Trump by almost 30 points.” at least two hundred thousand votes, where two Democratic House incumbents were also Mitch McConnell is the election’s biggest winner. defeated, at least in part because of the The final Senate margin depends on a few races president’s support from Cuban- and Venezuelan- too close to call and at least one January 5 runoff Americans. While Biden seems to have won over in Georgia, but Senate Republicans are well Latinos in Arizona, those in Florida proved positioned to maintain their majority. Despite a receptive to Republican messaging on the threat “Green Tsunami” fundraising advantage, of socialism from Democrats. Democrats have so far only flipped two seats in Arizona and Colorado, netting one because of the Youth voters turn out in key battleground loss in Alabama, with four too close to call. states. Early results suggest the youth vote (ages 18-29) could exceed 50 percent in swing states, building on historic 2018 turnout and a double- digit jump from 2016 turnout in the low forties. 3 Progressives may have to temper their States conducted an unprecedented election expectations. The left’s vision of a Biden New with few snags. An election that some observers Deal, progressive tax reform, aggressive Wall expected could be marked by long lines, polling Street regulators, social justice reform including station problems, voter intimidation, foreign policing, an expanded Supreme Court, and interference, or other impediments saw virtually reforms to the Senate’s legislative filibuster may none of that. Instead, local election officials ran have to wait. A Biden-Harris Administration could largely smooth elections that were able to face a closely divided but largely intransigent accommodate a record turnout. Senate in 2021, one opposed to confirming left- leaning federal judges and liberal political appointees and one bent on again blocking progressive policy proposals that emerge from the House. Are mailed ballots the future? The coronavirus pandemic is an accelerant. For states, that meant quickly adapting their primary elections and then applying lessons learned to the general election. More than 100 million voters cast ballots before November 3, nearly 73 percent of the entire 2016 turnout. Voters expect new, better, faster as consumers, and it is difficult to imagine them accepting a step back post-pandemic. Look to see additional states join Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington in conducting elections by mailed ballot. 4 Election Results House of Representatives Democratic hopes were high to expand the already historic House majority. While Democrats will hold onto control, Republicans are making gains. With 43 races too close to call, Republicans flipped seven seats – six of the Republican pickups were women – for a net gain of five, and Democrats flipped two seats in North Carolina. The 117th Congress will welcome at least 56 freshmen, 49 of whom will fill open seats. The biggest blow to incumbents was Republican Michelle Fischbach’s win over 15-term Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN), the chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. District Party Flip Incumbent/Candidate (Vacating) Challenger AK-AL R Don Young Alyse Galvin AR-02 R French Hill Joyce Elliott AZ-01 D Tom O'Halleran Tiffany SheDD AZ-06 R David Schweikert Hiral Tipirneni CA-21 D TJ Cox David Valadao CA-25 R Mike Garcia Christy Smith CA-48 D Harley Rouda Michelle Park Steel CA-50 R Darrell Issa (Vacant) Ammar Campa-Najjar CO-03 R Lauren Boebert (Tipton) Diane Mitsch Bush FL-15 R Scott Franklin (Spano) Alan Cohn FL-26 D ✓ Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Carlos Gimenez FL-27 D ✓ Donna Shalala Maria Elvira Salazar GA-07 R Rich McCormick (Woodall) Carolyn Bourdeaux IA-01 D ✓ Abby Finkenauer Ashley Hinson IA-02 D Rita Hart (Loebsack) Mariannette Miller-Meeks IA-03 D Cindy Axne David Young IL-13 R Rodney Davis Betsy Dirksen Londrigan IL-17 D Cheri Bustos Esther Joy King IN-05 R Victoria SpartZ (Brooks) Christina Hale MI-03 I Peter Meijer (Amash) Hillary Scholten MI-06 R Fred Upton Jon Hoadley MI-08 D Elissa Slotkin Paul Junge MI-11 D Haley Stevens Eric Esshaki MN-01 R Jim Hagedorn Dan Feehan MN-07 D ✓ Collin Peterson Michelle Fischbach MO-02 R Ann Wagner Jill Schupp MT-AL R Matt Rosendale (Gianforte) Kathleen Williams 6 District Party Flip Incumbent/Candidate (Vacating) Challenger NC-08 R Richard Hudson Patricia Timmons-Goodson NC-09 R Dan Bishop Cynthia Wallace NC-11 R Madison Cawthorn (Vacant) Moe Davis NE-02 R Don Bacon Kara Eastman NJ-02 R Jeff Van Drew Amy Kennedy NJ-07 D Tom Malinowski Tom Kean Jr.