Situation Report Coronavirus Spreading Widely in Multiple Countries as Global Risk Increases Author s: Mathew Mikuni, Senior Regional Analyst – Asia/Pacific Stephanie Kiefer, Senior Regional Analyst – Europe, the Worldwide Caucasus, and Central Asia March 3, 2020 Samson Sampson, Senior Regional Analyst – Middle East and North Africa Josh Strongin, Lead Intelligence Analyst – North America
Contact : [email protected] Overview
On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) upgraded the global risk assessment for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) to “Very High,” reflecting the fact that the virus is increasing its spread across the world. In recent days, there have been more new cases reported outside mainland China compared to within mainland China. The WHO has said that South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran are the organization’s greatest concerns at this time regarding the
COVID-19 outbreak. The European Union also raised its risk level to “moderate to high,” with dozens of additional countries reporting COVID-19 cases, while the United States has also reported multiple deaths. There is a growing risk that COVID-19 could spread at a higher pace within these countries or to other countries as well.
As of Tuesday, March 3, there have been over 92,000 cases of COVID-19 reported across dozens of countries, which have resulted in at least 3,100 deaths. Around 85 percent of these cases have been reported in mainland China, although this percentage has been decreasing in recent days. Over the past week, China has only reported a few hundred new cases per day, compared to the thousands of cases before, suggesting that at the moment, they are continuing to contain the outbreak. However, there are still significant and widespread supply chain disruptions, as the return to normal production within mainland China continues to be slow.
With outbreaks accelerating across the world, customers are advised to be aware of the potential for additional supply chain impacts, especially if countries like South Korea are forced to curtail business operations to contain
Confirmed COVID-19 Cases as of Tuesday, March 3
Source: World Health Organization (WHO) the outbreak. In addition, international travelers should keep in mind that if they are traveling to a country or area that is reporting a significant outbreak, they may face bans or other restrictions when traveling to another country or returning home. Mainland China and Worldwide Supply Chain Disruptions
As of Tuesday morning, China’s National Health Commission (NHC) has reported 80,151 cases of COVID-19 across mainland China, including 2,943 deaths. This was an increase of 125 infections and 31 deaths from the previous 24-hour period. Only 11 cases were reported outside of Hubei Province, which is where the epicenter of Wuhan is located, representing a lack of new outbreaks in other parts of the country. The number of cases over the past week increased between zero and five percent per area, with multiple areas reporting no new cases. The number of suspected cases also decreased to 587, continuing the downward trend of people that still might have the disease and was significantly lower than the peak of 28,000 suspected cases in early February. The number of remaining cases, which refers to the total number of cases but subtracting those who have been cured or discharged, has also reached a low of 32,947.
Over the past week, multiple regions in mainland China have downgraded their emergency response levels for COVID-19. China operates a four-level response system, with I being the highest and IV being the lowest. Zhejiang, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Jilin, and Hainan have all downgraded their response levels from I to either II or III. Gansu, Liaoning, Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Shanxi, Shandong, and Jiangxi have also issued
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Mainland China: Confirmed and Remaining COVID-19 Cases 90,000 18,000
79,251 79,824 80,026 80,151 78,064 78,497 78,824 80,000 76,936 77,150 77,658 16,000 75,465 76,288 74,185 74,546
70,000 14,000
60,000 12,000 59,809 58,389 57,199 55,629 Before From Day Change 54,048 - 50,000 52,416 10,000 50,428 48,319 46,002 40,000 42,707 8,000 40,249 37,999
Total and Remaining CasesRemaining and Total 35,564 30,000 32,947 6,000
20,000 4,000 2,934 2,533 2,184 and CasesConfirmed Suspected New 1,638 10,000 1,530 2,000 1,038 941 834 845 779 675 705 343 254 0 0
New Confirmed Cases New Suspected Cases Total Infections Remaining Cases
Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China downgrades since February 21. The areas that have downgraded response levels now comprise around 51 percent of the country’s GDP, an increase from 33 percent on February 25.
Production within Mainland China and Supply Chains Remain Severely Disrupted
Signs of Improvement Over 91 percent of 48,000 state enterprises have resumed operations. Volume on metro lines has increased 65 percent from a week earlier. Increasing traffic levels in large cities suggest greater economic activity. Around 16 million people returned to work from their hometowns, bringing the total to around 290 million, according to Reuters.
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Mainland China: Suspected COVID-19 Cases 10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000 5,248 5,206 5,365 4,922 5,000 4,148
4,000 3,434 2,824 3,000 2,491 2,358 2,308
2,000 1,418 851 715 1,000 587
0 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 29-Feb 1-Mar 2-Mar
Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China
Rail freight, which has not been significantly impacted by the outbreak, grew in February despite the widespread restrictions. The U.S.-based National Retail Federation has said that supply chain disruptions are starting to subside, although this is varied between companies. Signs of Ongoing Disruptions Only around 33 percent of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) had restarted work as of February 26. Emissions from factories are still much lower than before the outbreak. There are continued reports regarding a shortage of workers and those restricted by quarantine measures. Despite roads reopening and many port facilities resuming, there are still reports about ports being clogged with containers and goods not being transported to factories due to a lack of transportation capacity. A.P. Moller-Maersk Group reported on February 27 that around 60 percent of China’s trucking capacity was back online. Factory activity and non-manufacturing activity in February reached an all-time low, even below the level seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Most importantly: Factories in other countries are still reporting significant shortages in raw materials and other intermediate goods from mainland China.
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Mainland China: Areas with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases as of Tuesday, March 3
February Percent February Percent Province/City March 2 Province/City March 2 24 Increase 24 Increase Hubei 67,217 64,768 3.8% Guangxi 252 252 0.0% Guangdong 1,350 1,347 0.2% Shaanxi 245 245 0.0% Henan 1,272 1,271 0.1% Yunnan 174 174 0.0% Zhejiang 1,213 1,205 0.7% Hainan 168 168 0.0% Hunan 1,018 1,016 0.2% Guizhou 146 146 0.0% Anhui 990 989 0.1% Tianjin 136 135 0.7% Jiangxi 935 934 0.1% Shanxi 133 133 0.0% Shandong 758 755 0.4% Liaoning 125 121 3.3% Jiangsu 631 631 0.0% Jilin 93 93 0.0% Chongqing 576 576 0.0% Gansu 91 91 0.0%
Sichuan 538 529 1.7% Xinjiang 76 76 0.0%
Heilongjiang 480 480 0.0% Inner Mongolia 75 75 0.0%
Beijing 414 400 3.5% Ningxia 74 71 4.2%
Shanghai 338 335 0.9% Qinghai 18 18 0.0%
Hebei 318 311 2.3% Tibet 1 1 0.0%
Fujian 296 294 0.7%
Source: World Health Organization (WHO) Supply Chain Disruptions are Continuing or even Intensifying outside Mainland China
Southeast Asia, particularly the garment sector, is reporting significant ongoing disruptions. Cambodia has said that ten factories with 3,000 workers are being forced to suspend operations due to a lack of raw materials from China, and this could grow to 200 factories and 160,000 workers by the end of the month. Myanmar has reported that several garment and bag factories in Yangon have had to shut down or reduce operations. Vietnam has said that a lack of Chinese labor has resulted in significant delays in the unloading of trucks at the main international crossing with China. Unloading operations now take a whole day, when previously they only took an hour. The automotive sector worldwide is still being severely impacted. India’s Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have reported that the impact on the supply of parts from China is expected to continue for at least another few weeks. In Spain’s Malaga, a factory owned by Denso that produces car audio components has said that it could be forced to reduce production from March 16 due to a lack of parts from China. The plant’s director said that that deliveries take at least three to five weeks when production restarts. Japan’s Honda said that it was reducing production at two plants in Saitama due to shortages of components like brakes and doors.
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There has been a significant drop in demand for new car sales within mainland China. The lack of air cargo capacity due to suspended flights will continue to pose serious issues for shipping automotive parts out of mainland China. Infrastructure projects in other countries are still negatively affected. Taiwanese construction companies have cut 50,000 workers and lowered the hours of 80,000 more due to a lack of cement from mainland China. Two solar power projects in the Philippines were delayed in Tarlac and Bulacan due to a lack of photovoltaic panels from China. The Multipurpose/heavy-lift (MPV/HL) sector is experiencing significant disruptions due to a shortage of large project components and modules used in industrial construction. Construction on oil and gas infrastructure affected as a result. Labor-intensive sectors like construction and mining in other countries that rely heavily on Chinese workers are unable to get enough people due to travel bans remaining in place on people from China. There is a serious risk of an additional round of disruptions if the public health situation worsens in other countries. While the focus was previously on supply chains connected to mainland China, this could expand to other countries like South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, etc. Supply chains between China, Japan, and South Korea are heavily connected. . For example, disruptions to production in Japan and South Korea could affect production in China. Disruptions to businesses in Japan could impact the automotive, electronics, machinery, and chemical sectors. . Japan’s factory activity is already sharply contracting due to a lack of demand from China and ongoing supply chain issues. For South Korea, around 90 percent of its exports are intermediate goods, which are used to make finished products in other supply chains. This includes critical electronics components, such as displays and semiconductors. At the moment, businesses in South Korea, Japan, and Italy have not instituted any restrictions that have severely affected business operations. The electronics sector is still impacted by supply issues. Taiwan is heavily dependent on raw materials from mainland China for use in semiconductor production, the information and communications technology (ICT) sector, and the production of flat-panel displays. . Many component makers and manufacturing hubs are located in Guangdong and the outbreak epicenter of Hubei, which is still under strict quarantine restrictions. Apple factories are getting closer to full production, although global iPhone supply is expected to be constrained.
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Confirmed Cases Outside Mainland China as of Tuesday, March 3
Country/Region March 3 February 25 Country/Region March 3 February 25
South Korea 4,812 977 Sweden 15 1
Italy 2,036 229 Lebanon 13 1
Iran 1,501 61 Israel 10 2 Diamond Princess 706 691 Macau 10 10 Cruise Ship Croatia 9 0 Japan 268 147 Iceland 9 0 France 191 12 Belgium 8 2 Germany 157 16 San Marino 8 0 Spain 114 2 Finland 7 1 Singapore 108 91 Greece 7 0 Hong Kong 101 85 Qatar 7 0 United States 64 53 Ecuador 6 0 Kuwait 56 2 Oman 6 2 Bahrain 49 8 Algeria 5 0 Thailand 43 37 Denmark 5 0 Taiwan 42 31 India 5 3 United Kingdom 39 13 Mexico 5 0 Australia 33 22 Pakistan 5 0 Switzerland 30 0 Azerbaijan 3 0 Malaysia 29 22 Czechia 3 0 Canada 27 10 Georgia 3 0 Iraq 26 1 Philippines 3 3 Norway 25 0 Romania 3 0 UAE 21 13 Russia 3 2 Austria 18 0 Brazil 2 0 Netherlands 18 0 Egypt 2 1 Vietnam 16 16 Source: World Health Organization (WHO) and Other Media Sites
Spread of COVID-19: Asia South Korea
South Korea continues to report hundreds of new COVID-19 cases every day and it does not appear that the virus has reached its peak. As of Tuesday morning, there have been 4,812 cases of COVID-19 that have resulted in 28 deaths. This is an increase of 600 infections and six deaths over the past 24 hours. A week
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Confirmed Cases Outside Mainland China as of Tuesday, March 3 (Cont.)
Country/Region March 3 February 25 Country/Region March 3 February 25 Indonesia 2 0 Lithuania 1 0 Portugal 2 0 Luxembourg 1 0 Afghanistan 1 1 Monaco 1 0 Andorra 1 0 Morocco 1 0 Armenia 1 0 Nepal 1 1 Belarus 1 0 New Zealand 1 0 Cambodia 1 1 Nigeria 1 0 Dominican Republic 1 0 North Macedonia 1 0 Estonia 1 0 Saudi Arabia 1 0 Ireland 1 0 Senegal 1 0 Jordan 1 0 Sri Lanka 1 1 Latvia 1 0 Tunisia 1 0
Source: World Health Organization (WHO) and Other Media Sites ago, only 893 cases of COVID-19 were reported. The majority of cases have been reported in Daegu (75 percent) and neighboring North Gyeongsang Province (Gyeongbuk) (14 percent). Around two-thirds of all cases have been linked to the Shincheonji church at the epicenter of the outbreak in Daegu. This leaves around one-third of cases not being directly linked to the church, which strongly suggests that the virus is circulating within the local population.
The U.S. CDC increased its notice to the highest level “Warning – Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel” last week, while the U.S. Department of State also increased its Travel Advisory to “Level 3: Reconsider Travel,” with a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” for Daegu. The alert levels were increased due to the widespread community transmission of the virus across the country. More than 91 countries and regions have restricted the entry of people with recent travel history to South Korea, with 37 of them implementing some form of travel ban.
South Korea is increasing its response to the outbreak, but the number of cases is likely to rise in the coming weeks and months.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on February 28 that the peak of the virus is not in sight. The start of the school year has been delayed for at least two weeks. Rallies and other large gatherings have been banned in Seoul. President Moon Jae-in has pledged to spend U.S. $25 billion to respond to the virus, saying that the country is in a critical phase. Healthcare services, especially in Daegu, are reportedly being strained by the high number of cases.
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South Korea: Confirmed Cases as of Tuesday, March 3
Percentage Percent of Area March 3 February 25 Increase Total Daegu 3601 499 622% 74.83% North Gyeongsang 685 225 204% 14.24% Seoul 98 36 172% 2.04% Gyeonggi 94 40 135% 1.95% Busan 90 38 137% 1.87% South Chungcheong 81 1 8000% 1.68% South Gyeongsang 64 21 205% 1.33% Gangwon 20 6 233% 0.42% Ulsan 20 2 900% 0.42% Daejeon 14 3 367% 0.29% Gwangju 11 9 22% 0.23% North Chungcheong 11 3 267% 0.23% North Jeolla 7 3 133% 0.15% Incheon 7 2 250% 0.15% South Jeolla 5 2 150% 0.10% Jeju 3 2 50% 0.06% Sejong City 1 1 0% 0.02%
Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC)
In areas outside of Daegu and North Gyeongsang, a significant percentage of cases (between 18 and 100 percent) have not been classified into an existing cluster or are still under investigation. This suggests that limited community spread is occurring across the country. The vast majority of new cases every day are still taking place in Daegu and North Gyeongsang, suggesting that at the moment, the majority of the public health risk is in those areas.
Supply chain disruptions are increasing due to the outbreak, but not to the level seen in mainland China. The government has not yet imposed the type of movement restrictions or quarantines that would cause major disruptions, although this could change in the future.
Samsung and LG shut down factories making smartphones and smartphone components in Gumi, North Gyeongsang Province, on March 2, after COVID-19 cases were confirmed among employees. Hyundai Motor suspended production for a day at a factory in Ulsan after a worker tested positive. Dozens of Lotte department stores, E-Mart branches, and Lotte Mart branches have been closed due to visits from infected individuals. Travel bans and suspension of flight routes disrupts not only passenger travel, but also air cargo capacity for goods placed on passenger planes.
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Japan
Japan has reported over 270 cases of COVID-19, which have resulted in six deaths. Around 118 cases have been reported over the past week. The highest number of cases is in Hokkaido Prefecture (79), which has reported new cases every day since February 19. Aichi (41), Tokyo (40), Kanagawa (31), Chiba (14), and Wakayama (13) have all reported over a dozen cases as well. The CDC continues to list Japan at “Alert – Level 2, Practice Enhanced Precautions.”
Overall, Japan has not seen a spike in new reported cases over the past week, although the wide distribution and the fact that the source of transmission is unknown in many of the new infections highlight the public health risk and the threat of a more severe outbreak in the future.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked elementary, junior high, and senior high schools nationwide to close early from March 2. Hokkaido Prefecture has declared a state of emergency and asked residents to stay indoors during the weekend. Transportation services have not been initially affected. There are concerns that strict criteria for COVID-19 testing is resulting in the number of cases being underreported. People with mild symptoms are asked to self-quarantine at home and only those with serious cases are told to contact a hotline, which can direct them to a facility that carries out testing. Multiple countries have imposed restrictions on Japanese travelers. China’s Shanghai has said that all travelers arriving from Japan will need to be quarantined at home or in specified facilities for two weeks, potentially impacting the operations of 10,000 Japanese companies in the city. International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach has said that the IOC is fully committed to holding the Summer Olympic Games between July 24 and August 9 in Tokyo and that athletes should continue to prepare “with great confidence.”
Spread of COVID-19: Europe
Italy
While northern Italy continues efforts to slow the spread of the virus in the hotspots of Lombardy and Veneto, the government said on Tuesday, March 3, that it is also considering whether to add any municipalities with high or growing case numbers in the Bergamo area to the list of towns with restricted access. Of 2,263 cases confirmed as of Tuesday afternoon, 79 people have died, though the fatalities have been concentrated in the elderly and/or others with previously compromised health. While there has been a small number of recent confirmed cases of the virus in Lazio, the region home to Rome, the capital does not have a local outbreak with community spread at this time.
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European Union/EEA: Confirmed Cases as Tuesday, March 3
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
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Distribution of New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Day in Europe
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
The U.S. State Department and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued Level 3 warnings for Italy on Saturday, February 29, advising that travel to the country be reconsidered, in addition to advising against all travel to the regions of Lombardy and Veneto.
More than 70 countries have implemented restrictions or containment/quarantine requirements for people arriving from Italy. Flights continue operating, though services, particularly for northern destinations, have been reduced by airlines in response to the outbreak and lower demand. While 13 percent of Italy’s economy is in the tourism sector, there have been reports of hotel cancellations climbing up to 90 percent depending on the area of the country. The manufacturing and service association Confindustria reported a drop in industrial production in February compared to January in Italy, though the broader effects of the virus are expected to come to light in the spring months as impacts within Italy and around Europe are likely to expand.
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The Italian government announced a U.S. $4 billion stimulus package to support businesses hard- hit by the slowing economy. Two Amazon employees in Milan have been confirmed to have contracted the virus and were placed in quarantine. Amazon has advised employees to avoid non-essential travel. France
The number of confirmed cases in France has exceeded 200, with cluster zones of infection primarily in the northern region of Brittany and department of Oise. Primarily in the most affected areas, about 120 schools have been ordered to close temporarily to stem the spread of the virus, though there are no associated town or city quarantines at this time.
The French government announced it will requisition the production and stocks of face masks in the country in the coming months. Authorities will distribute masks to health professionals and individuals who have contracted the virus. Medical supplies, including thousands of surgical masks, have been reported stolen from healthcare facilities around the country, according to local media. Gatherings of 5,000 people or more in an enclosed area have been temporarily banned across the country. In Oise, all gatherings were banned temporarily to stem the rate of transmission. The United Kingdom
The British government announced its coronavirus action plan on Tuesday, March 3, with National Health Service (NHS) England declaring a level 4 incident – the highest level – to facilitate planning and response measures. The government has a four-phase plan to combat the virus: contain, delay, research, and mitigate. The UK has more than 50 confirmed cases, with the number of infections expected to rise. Though there has not been sustained community transmission, as the preponderance of cases have been linked to foreign travel, increased spreading is likely in the coming days and weeks.
The Unite union warned on Tuesday that factories could be forced to reduce or halt operations due to shortages of parts coming from China should the crisis not improve in the next three to four weeks. During potential “peak weeks” of the virus, the government estimates up to 20 percent of UK workers could be absent due to the virus. Unions have called for full sick pay to be provided. Germany
Nearly 200 people have contracted the virus in Germany, with the single largest number of cases in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. Between Saturday and Sunday, the number of confirmed infections in the country doubled, underscoring the swift spread of the virus. Almost all federal states in the country now have confirmed cases of COVID-19.
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A BMW employee tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday, and about 150 BMW staff in Munich were told to self-quarantine for 14 days as a precaution, though operations were continuing without disruption. Machine tool manufacturer DMG Mori closed its Ostallgäu plant Monday and Tuesday due to a confirmed infection of an employee.
Spread of COVID-19: Middle East More than 2,530 cases of COVID-19 have been reported across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since the virus first appeared in the region on January 29. At least 17 countries have reported positive cases, including Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia, all of which have announced their first infections in recent days. Iran remains the epicenter of the regional outbreak, as the country’s ministry of health had recorded 2,336 confirmed cases and 77 deaths as of March 3. The vast majority of those elsewhere in the region have involved individuals who recently traveled to Iran. COVID-19 cases have also been imported from Italy and France, notably in the North African countries of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia.
Iran and Other Countries
It has been reported that COVID-19 has spread to all of the country’s 31 provinces since authorities announced the first case on February 19. The city of Qom, the capital of the central province bearing the same name and home to several religious sites, remains the worst-hit city, though the capital Tehran and Mashhad also continue to witness a surge in new infections. On March 3, Iran’s health ministry said that the number of confirmed cases had risen by more than 50 percent for the second consecutive day. This suggests that local authorities have yet to gain a handle on the situation, meaning the ongoing, rapid spread of the virus is likely to continue in the near future.
On February 29, the U.S. CDC increased its risk rating for Iran in light of the COVID-19 outbreak. The CDC assigned Iran the highest “Warning – Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel” rating, citing “limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas” and noting that the elderly and individuals with chronic medical conditions could be at increased risk for “severe disease.”
Iranian authorities continue to adopt measures to limit COVID-19 spread; overall response remains disjointed.
The Ministry of Health has announced plans to deploy 300,000 troops to screen citizens and disinfect homes, while more than 54,000 inmates have been released on bail from overcrowded prisons. Rather than containing the virus, critics have claimed that such steps could instead spread COVID-19.
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Rather than ordering quarantines, Iranians have been urged not to travel within the country, while temperature screenings are being conducted at city entrances.
Mosques and shrines in Qom remain open to visiting pilgrims, albeit with restricted access.
Multiple reports by Western media outlets, some corroborated by Iranian lawmakers, say that the country’s leadership is pressuring doctors to hide fatalities or otherwise conceal the extent of the outbreak. When coupled with the current case mortality rate—about three percent— speculation is rife that the actual number of cases is significantly greater than the official numbers. Hospitals in Gilan Province have reportedly reached full capacity, with designated centers for COVID-19 treatment said to be turning away patients.
Expanding travel restrictions and other preventative measures to increasingly weaken local economies by reducing tourism and visits by foreign religious pilgrims.
Countries across the MENA region continue to adopt and tighten travel restrictions and other measures aimed at combatting COVID-19. Saudi Arabia has instituted a 14-day entry ban on citizens and residents of its five Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) counterparts—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—suspended the umrah pilgrimage, barred GCC citizens from visiting Mecca and Medina, and banned tourists from at least 25 countries affected by the coronavirus. Qatar has imposed entry restrictions on anyone arriving in the emirate from multiple countries. Most flights from the country to mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan have been canceled. Bahrain has indefinitely suspended flights to and from Iraq, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates. Manama has also postponed two oil and gas conferences. Such measures stand to deprive regional economies and local businesses of tourist revenues. Anti-COVID-19 efforts could also disrupt supply chains and various manufacturing sectors, while potentially making it difficult for travelers and expatriates to depart from locations affected by the virus.
Spread of COVID-19: The United States The United States has seen a significant uptick in COVID-19 cases over the last week. As of Tuesday, there are 122 total cases, including 74 cases of individuals infected within the U.S. and an additional 48 cases from repatriated U.S. citizens. The 74 cases within the U.S. is a dramatic increase from last week when only 15 such cases were being reported. The 74 cases within the U.S. have been reported in 13 states so far: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington state, and Wisconsin. Washington and California
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have seen the most cases so far with 27 and 22, respectively. Washington has also seen nine fatalities, the only COVID-19 deaths reported so far in the United States.
King County and the greater Seattle area appear to have several clusters of outbreaks, including one at the Life Care Center of Kirkland where over 50 people have reported symptoms and at least four deaths have occurred. The facility is now locked down. On Tuesday, Vice President Mike Pence announced the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is expected to issue new testing guidance that will allow any clinician or health authority to administer a test. The number of U.S. cases is likely higher than what is currently being reported due to a lack of regular testing, the accuracy of tests, and prior to Tuesday, narrow testing criteria. There are no current restrictions on domestic travel, including domestic airlines. A number of conferences and expos have been closed as a precaution. This includes the Mobile World Congress in January, the Facebook F8 developer conference in February, the Game Developer Conference in February, and the Google I/O event scheduled to take place in May. The CDC still considers the risk to the general population as low.
Travel Restrictions Update The number of countries restricting travel from areas with COVID-19 outbreaks continues to expand. In the past week, South Korea, Iran, and Italy have been the countries most frequently added to travel ban lists. Restrictions to mainland China remain in place despite the apparent improving of their public health situation. International travelers should be aware of the risk of going to any countries with a COVID-19 outbreak, as other countries can impose bans and other restrictions on short notice. The following is a list of countries that have imposed new bans on entire countries in the past week. Many other countries have increased quarantine requirements or banned travel from parts of certain countries.
Angola – Foreigners who have recent travel to Algeria, mainland China, Egypt, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Nigeria are not allowed to enter.
Bahrain – Egypt, Italy, Japan, and Lebanon have been added to the travel ban list.
Cayman Islands – Foreigners with travel to mainland China within the past 14 days are banned from entering the country.
Cook Islands – Individuals with travel to Cambodia, mainland China, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
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El Salvador – Foreign travelers from mainland China, Italy, and South Korea are not allowed to enter.
Fiji – Foreigners with travel to mainland China, Iran, Italy, or parts of South Korea within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
French Polynesia – Travelers from Cambodia, mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam must present a medical certificate dated within five days before entering the country.
India – Visas have been invalidated for nationals of Iran, Italy, Japan, and South Korea.
Iraq – Foreign travelers from Hong Kong, Iran, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Macau, Singapore, and Thailand within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
Israel – Italy added to the list of banned countries with travel in the past 14 days.
Jamaica – Foreign nationals with travel to Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Singapore in the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
Jordan – Italy added to the list of banned countries with travel in the past 14 days.
Kuwait – Nationals from Italy, Japan, Iraq, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand are not allowed to enter.
Lebanon – Nationals from mainland China, Iran, Italy, and South Korea are not allowed to enter.
Madagascar – Travelers from mainland China, Iran, Italy, and South Korea within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
Maldives – Foreign travelers from Iran and parts of South Korea within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter. The arrival of cruise ships has also been banned.
Marshall Islands – Individuals with travel to mainland China, Hong Kong, Italy, Iran, Japan, South Korea, and Macao since December 31, 2019, are banned from entering.
Nauru – Travelers from mainland China, Hong Kong, Italy, South Korea, and Macao within the past 21 days are banned from entering.
New Zealand – Iran added to the list of banned countries with travel in the past 14 days.
Oman – Nationals of China, Iran, and Italy are not allowed to enter the country.
Paraguay – Visas for Chinese nationals have been invalidated. Mandatory 14-day quarantines enacted for travelers from mainland China, Iran, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand.
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Qatar – Foreign travelers from Egypt are banned from entering.
Russia – Nationals or people with passports belonging to China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Iran are banned from entering.
Samoa – Italy, Iran, and Kuwait added to list of banned countries with travel in the past 14 days. A medical certificate is still required.
Saudi Arabia – Tourists from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Lebanon, Macao, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Somalia, Syria, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Yemen are not allowed to enter.
Seychelles – Travelers who visited mainland China, Hong Kong, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Macao within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
Solomon Islands – Foreign travelers who visited mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Iran, Italy, Japan South Korea, Macao, Singapore, and Thailand within the past 14 days are banned from entering.
Somalia – Foreign travelers who visited mainland China within the past 20 days are not allowed to enter.
Tajikistan – Foreign travelers who visited Afghanistan, mainland China, Iran, Italy, and South Korea in the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
Tonga – Foreign travelers who visited mainland China, Taiwan, and Macao within the past 14 days are banned from entering.
Turkey – Foreign travelers who visited mainland China, Iran, Iraq, Italy, and South Korea within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
Vanuatu – Foreign travelers who visited mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Macao, and Singapore within the past 14 days are not allowed to enter.
A list maintained by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) regarding COVID-19 travel restrictions can be found here: https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document- news/1580226297.htm.
The Risk Intelligence Monitoring Center (RIMC) is monitoring travel restrictions in over 70 countries and territories due to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak via a ‘Worldwide - Travel Advisory.’ Information on all travel restrictions in place can be found within the ‘Worldwide - Travel Advisory’ event.
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Assessment Over the past week, COVID-19 cases outside of mainland China have grown significantly and major outbreaks have been reported in multiple other countries. In the cases of Italy and Iran, the serious outbreaks there have spread across Europe and the Middle East and threaten to contribute to a worldwide pandemic. In South Korea, which has the highest number of cases outside of mainland China, hundreds of new cases are reported every day and it does not appear that the outbreak has reached its peak. For Italy and South Korea, the majority of the public health risks are still largely located in specific geographic regions—the northern part of Italy and the Daegu and North Gyeongsang areas of South Korea. However, this could change in the future if the outbreak spreads within these countries or new major outbreaks are reported in other countries. In addition to the negative impacts on public health, the outbreaks also have the potential to severely disrupt business operations and associated supply chains. While none of the countries have imposed the widespread quarantines, transportation restrictions, and mandatory shutdowns similar to those carried out by China, they may be forced to in the future if the current control measures prove ineffective.
In mainland China, the outbreak appears to be significantly easing, with the number of new cases reported per day continuing to decline and multiple areas reporting zero new cases within the past week. This could still change in the future though and the country overall is still at a relatively high risk for additional outbreaks. Despite the apparent improving public health situation and the focus on restarting normal economic activity, there is strong evidence that connected supply chains are still facing severe disruptions. This is due to many factors, including a lack of workers, quarantine restrictions, travel bans from other countries, and just general delays and the fact that complex production lines take time to restart.
Customers should closely monitor the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak due to the multitude of public health and economic impacts. It is likely that the number of cases across the world will continue to grow, with additional outbreaks in new countries taking place. If the outbreak intensifies or spreads to other countries, there is a risk that supply chain disruptions could spread well beyond mainland China and have an even greater impact on business operations. Individuals should follow advice from their governments regarding travel, along with national and international health organizations regarding precautions to avoid contracting COVID-19.
About the Author
Mathew Mikuni is the Regional Analyst for Asia/Pacific. Mathew earned his BA with a double major in Diplomacy and World Affairs and Asian Studies from Occidental College. He spent three years living in Japan and assisted NC4 with on-the-ground reporting as a foreign correspondent. Mathew also has comprehensive experience as a real-time international, domestic, and support analyst.
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