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Home , Proposition (party), Yulia Tymoshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc

Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session

Forum: Security Council

Issue: The Situation in

Student Officer: Waleed Yousif

Position: Deputy President

Introduction

The Ukraine crisis when broken down to basics, is a power struggle between the Eastern and Western factions within Ukraine. The West wants to align with the and the East with Russia as they had close cultural ties. Ukraine had been an important agricultural and gas transport contributor to the 's economy between 1920 and 1991.

The current crisis erupted in Eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian armed forces and Russian- backed separatists starting in the Spring of 2014 yet never concluded. In July 2014, when it seemed that Kiev had an opportunity to reclaim all the uncontrolled territories in the East, Russia was quick to respond with acts of aggression after a full invasion of took place (1st March). An illegitimate referendum supported by Russia was held in Sevastopol, Crimea making it an annexed state followed by Russia arming and funding the LPR and DPR leading to extreme bloodshed of thousands of innocent civilians in the Donbas Region. The war has been going on for 5 years non-stop despite several attempts at ceasefires and solutions, it has been called “the forgotten war” by many.

The , Canada and the European Union are working together in efforts to heavily sanction and isolate Russia for their actions during the Ukrainian revolution. The Russian federation and its leaders have been the masterminds behind the whole conflict as they are continuing to fuel the war, including the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines MH17. is denying all allegations made and is enjoying an unjust upper hand in the situation. All documents made to solve the issue have no legal status making Russia nearly immune to action, more so, legally binding documents can be and have been vetoed.

Attempts at solving the war in Eastern Ukraine have come with little to no success. Despite numerous tries and renditions of previous agreements, the war remains active jeopardizing the safety of more than 100,000 civilians in the war zone (grey zone). The so-called Minsk Agreements were negotiated between the two parties to provide a peaceful solution, but the warfare has not come to a holt. Despite this being the case, both Ukrainian and involved international politicians publicly say that the Minsk

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session

Agreements are Ukraine’s only hope left for peace in the East. However, the accords are proving ineffective.

Definition of Key Terms

Verkhovna Rada

Founded on 25th July 1938, the of Ukraine is the unicameral (single legislative body) parliament of Ukraine. It comprises of 450 deputies led by a chairman who’s terms lasts until they resign or are dismissed by the rest of the parliament. Parliamentary meetings are held in the Rada building in Kiev.

Donetsk and Peoples Republic

The DPR and LPR are the two pro-Russian separatist/ anti-government groups that are funded and affiliated by the Russian Federation. They are currently at war with Ukraine over the Donbas region in the east and are basically fighting the war for Russia.

Donbass Region

The Donbas region is a large portion of Eastern Ukraine making up 16% of the country’s population.

The active war is taking place in Donabs as of 6th April 2014. The region is predominantly Russophone and the two major cities are Oblast and along with other smaller cities.

All Ukrainian Union “Fatherland”

All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” was officially recognized as a political party in September 1999 and by 2000 and has now become a leading party in the Ukrainian Revolution standing for becoming a part of the EU. Prior to the revolution, it served as a parliamentary faction setup to protest against after he left the Hromada party. It is led by .

Legally Binding Documents

Diplomatic documents (e.g. resolutions, memorandums) that do not allow legal action on those who violate the stated terms of the agreement.

The OSCE

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is the world's largest security-oriented intergovernmental organization. It has been involved in the Minsk-I and II aimed at creating a ceasefire in Ukraine, it is also part of the TCG.

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session

Key Issues

Yanukovych EU deal Rejection

What most consider was the trigger of the Ukraine crisis, (the former Ukrainian president) rejected the EU integration pact proposed on 21st November 2013 at the EU summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Yanukovych was under immense pressure by the Russian president Vladimir Putin to decline the EU offer despite being mentioned that the EU leaders attending the summit would not tolerate Russian interference in the bloc’s relations with former Soviet republics. Yanukovych is a member of the Eastern Ukrainian population who consist of pro-Russians and given his growing up in this region of Ukraine, his political shift towards Russia can be explained. He has always been strongly against the pro-Ukrainian political parties ever since his arrival.

The deal between the EU and Ukraine was an attempt to aid the countries failing economy in the previous years. Yanukovych described the offer to lend Ukraine 610m Euros from the EU as inadequate and that a minimum of 20bn Euros annually would suffice in order to upgrade its economy to “European standards”. Now Ukraine faced the risk of economic collapse given the deal was rejected, however, it was not an issue as Russia opted to provide Ukraine with a $50bn bailout which was instantly accepted by Yanukovych. This occurrence at the EU summit was displayed publicly and provoked many (Western) to feel that their “country had been sold to the Russians”. The pro-Ukrainians were stirred up and 1000’s gathered at Kiev’s Maidan square after the news had been heard to protest the actions of their president, driven by the belief that Ukraine’s economic future is greatly reliant on a deal with the EU.

Removal of Viktor Yanukovych and re-election

By the 22nd of February 2014 a was demanded by the Ukrainian parliament where MP’s of the Verkhovna Rada Committee voted to remove Viktor Yanukovych from the post of Ukrainian president, effective immediately. However, Yanukovych deemed the snap election illegal as his party disagreed with the to impeach him and he was not present to debate the notion in the parliament. Although there were no articles of , he was forced to step down on the grounds that he was incapable of fulfilling his presidential duties. Despite his determined refusal to step down from his post, Viktor Yanukovych was unofficially impeached yet considered so by the public as well as the Ukrainian parliament. The next day an interim government was formed to fill in until the upcoming presidential elections. While the former president was in hiding, crowds of curious Ukrainians streamed into Yanukovych’s compound and were in complete shock to see how he lived in such luxury never seen before in Ukraine while the rest of the country was suffering from severe economic failure.

A few months later on the 25th of May 2014 the premature Ukrainian presidential elections were held which was when the pro-European businessman Petro Poreshenko was introduced. Yulia Tymoshenko - the former Prime Minister - was released from prison on the concluding days of Research Report | Page 3 of 18

Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session after being jailed by Viktor Yanukovych for what was later found as a false accusation. These two primary representatives were fighting for similar causes since they are both pro-European politicians. The polling stations were flocked as this event was seen as the most crucial election since independence, however, the east region of Ukraine remained silent during the election as millions of citizens did not feel the need to vote. Reasons suspected were due to separatist sympathies, intimidation from pro-Russian citizens or simply a lack of polling stations. Some Ukrainian voters disliked the fact that Poroshenko was being forced upon them as the superior candidate and they believed that the politicians shouldn’t be cowering in the West or in Kiev where it is peaceful but rather in the East where people are being killed. That’s why who is a controversial radical was favoured by some, he was the only presidential candidate that visited the conflicted restive region in the East to partake in operations against separatists. Poroshenko made some remarks after being elected president mentioning he will start a dialogue with Russia, commence negotiation for a new treaty that would protect Ukraine instead of the 1994 Budapest memorandum and finally would make his first trip as president to the region of Donbass in the East. He became a President with lots of promises to fulfil.

Euromaidan

Ukraine’s largest protests since the took place between November 21st 2013 to

February 28th 2014. Around 800,000 peaceful protestors and demonstrators were recorded to have gathered at Kiev’s Maidan/ Independence square calling for the resignation of Viktor Yanukovych who had just rejected the EU trade deal in favour of a Russian bailout. Small groups of protestors would clash with riot police as they gathered to storm the presidential office and other government buildings. The situation grew dire. An attempt to surpass the line of armour-clad riot police, some 200 masked protestors commandeered a mechanical digger determined to break up the defences. Only over a week into the protests, the government decided they could not afford the chaos any longer and cracked down hard on the protestors. The violent raiding of a 1,000-strong sit-in at Independence (Maiden) square was carried out causing numerous casualties (of up to 70) of mainly students. This violent breakup of the crowd was covered up by the government and they announced that a clearance of Maiden square was necessary to make space for the hauling and mounting of the Christmas tree. A week later (January 2014) an anti- demonstration court ban was decided; however, it was ineffective as thousands filled the streets once more only further infuriated by the events of the previous week.

Russian annexation of Crimea

After the removal of Viktor Yanukovych from his post as president, pro-European protests began a short-lived celebration until Russia decided to take matters into their own hands. As pro-European celebrations were winding down in Kiev and in the aftermath of the Euromaidan movement it was now turn for the Pro-Russian protestors to make their voices heard. Throughout cities across the Eastern region of Ukraine (notably Crimea), pro-Russian protestors took to the streets and began speaking for what they

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session want ending February 2014 in pro-Russian unrest. March 2014 was commenced with pro-Russian protests in Eastern Ukraine that rapidly grew over the days, the people of Crimea in particular firmly demanded a referendum in hopes of granting their wish to reunite with Russia. Vladimir Putin requested to send in thousands of military troops into the autonomous state of Crimea and was granted to do so by the Russian parliament. On the 1st of March, Russian-speaking soldiers in unmarked uniforms were seen storming the Crimean Peninsula seizing several buildings and airports in the region. The recently formed Ukrainian interim government announced this as an invasion.

Two weeks later (March 16th), the legislature of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the local government of Sevastopol (main city of Crimea) put Crimean separation up for vote as the referendum that the pro-Russians pleaded for was carried out. It was claimed that over 95% of Crimean’s wanted to reunite with the Russian Federation thus confirming Crimea as a state annexed by the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin announced that Crimea is now a part of Russia, pro-Russians celebrated the cause and even Crimea’s pro-Russian leader Sergei Aksyonov celebrated on stage by hyping up the crowd at Simferopol, Sevastopol. However, the international community were quick to respond with strong opinions against the events of the past few days. The Ukrainian government in Kiev along with the EU, NATO & US strongly condemned the referendum. The EU stated that the vote was “illegal and illegitimate and its outcomes will not be recognized” and NATO condemned what it recognized as a “so-called referendum held at gunpoint”. The Crimean referendum was Internationally recognized as illegal and Vladimir Putin Russian President received worldwide criticism.

Russia was encountered the first round of economic sanctions, The United States backed by the European Union and Canada were responsible for this wave of sanctions. Prior to the events of March

16th, more than a dozen Russian officials and defence companies were sanctioned by the trio due to their “continued aggression in Ukraine”. After Russia’s complete annexation of the Crimea Peninsula, the EU sanctioned a total of 170 individuals and 44 entities. Reasons behind the heavy sanctioning were stated by the US Treasury in March 15th saying “Today's action targets individuals and entities playing a role in Russia's unjustified attacks on Ukrainian naval vessels in the Kerch Strait, the purported annexation of Crimea, and backing of illegitimate separatist government elections in eastern Ukraine". Although the events that took place during March 2014 may seem dire, the worst was yet to come.

War in Donbass

And finally, the war. The war which sparked on April 6th 2014 only to become a raging war. The events of the past 6 months starting from November 2013 to April 2014 pilling causing for the inevitable trigger of a war. Some call it the forgotten war as it has been going on for 5 years nonstop. It was commenced with pro-Russian and anti-government groups seizing and taking over government buildings in the Eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. The pro-Russian separatists demanded a Crimean-style referendum for the Eastern cities as they waved their Russian flags. Ousted President Viktor Yanukovych

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session who is situated in Donetsk has his political base there, he and Vladimir Putin were accused of conspiring in order to fuel the tensions in Eastern Ukraine. The situation began to escalate in the cities of the East notably in the Donbass region where the violence grew. Government buildings where barricaded by crowds, people were being detained, riot armoured policemen were being carried out in stretchers and hundreds of rifles, grenades and petrol bombs were confiscated. On May 11th 2014 the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic declared the Donbass region independent from Ukraine after an illegitimate referendum was held, however, the Ukrainian Interim Government would not accept it. The Ukrainian army was sent to reclaim the region while Russia decided to fuel the separatist rebels by sending troops of their own to lead them. This was when the war in Donbass officially became active.

The fighting raged on for months on end with civilians receiving the brunt of the violence in the area. Since the conflict in Ukraine began over 10,000 people have been killed 9recorded by OSCE SMM) and about 1.5 million have been displaced (16% of Ukraine’s population lives in Donbass). During the initial months of the war Kiev’s government and armed forces were completely overwhelmed and the rebels were enjoying a military advantage. The pro-Russian separatist side of the war consists of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) both heavily funded and backed by the massive Russian Military. The pro-European side consists of mainly Ukrainian army soldier and voluntary militias which are both funded by and members of parliament. During the peak of the war, even till today Russia continues to send in troops to fuel the conflict and continues to impede on Ukraine’s sovereignty and both sides have violated what could have been the ceasefire to end it all. There have been numerous attempts at solving the war in Donbass the majority of which were ceasefires followed by precautions to maintain the ceasefire as it was largely ignored (see Previous Attempts to solve the Issue).

Malaysia Airlines MH17 crash in Crimea

29th July 2014 is the day that really caught the attention of the world. Malaysia Airlines MH17 en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam was shot down, crash landing over the Eastern city of Donetsk. All 283 passengers, including 15 crew members died. A lengthy 15 month investigation was carried out immediately after the crash by the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) where they came to the conclusion (in October 2015) that a Russian-made Buk missile hit the airplane.

For a long time the blame for the downing of the airplane was being tossed around as Russia constantly denied the allegations until the DSB discovered that the crash was caused by the detonation of a Russian-made 9N314M-type warhead carried on the 9M38M1 missile, launched from a territory controlled by the Russian-backed separatists. In May 2018, the Dutch-led joint investigation team (JIT) concluded that the Buk missile system belonged to a Russian brigade and was announced that Australia and the Netherlands held the Russian Federation accountable for the downing of flight MH17. The JIT found bulks of similar evidence they call “irrefutable evidence” which all implied that a Russian Buk missile

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session was brought to Russian-separatist territory and launched with the intentions of mass destruction. A year after the incident Malaysia presented a draft resolution that established a tribunal for prosecution of those held accountable for the downing of the airplane, however, many attempts similar to these were all vetoed by Russia. A solid exhibition of of power.

Major Parties Involved and Their Views

The European Union

The EU is one of the two major parties involved in the Ukraine crisis. The country is divided between pro-Russians (situated in the east) who wish to merge with the Russian Federation and pro-Europeans (situated in the West) who wish to maintain their interests in the EU and NATO and keep their land. The EU wants to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine, ensure stability within the country and create a prosperous economy and democratic future for all the citizens. The Minsk-I agreements which were signed by the EU are seen as the basis for a sustainable political and safety solution in their eyes which is why harsh diplomatic measures such as economic sanctions and visa restrictions have implemented in response to Russia’s aggression. The European Union strongly condemned several of Russia’s acts (e.g. annexation) and will not reengage with them until Russia begins contributing to a solution.

Russia

Ukraine and Russia hold a rich history where they gained their close cultural and heritage ties, which can be argued as one of the main motives behind the whole conflict. Dating back to the 9th century Russia continuously oppressed Ukraine as it went through different forms of independence and faced several different rulers. Modern day Eastern Ukraine became totally absorbed into the Tsardom of Russia in 1654, explaining the close cultural ties of Eastern Ukraine to Russia.

Ukraine continued to be an oppressed ethnic group part of the Russian Empire until the Russian Revolution of 1917. Following the overthrow of the Tsars, Ukraine gained its short-lived independence until 1922 when the USSR (CCP) instantly claimed Ukraine as part of the newly established union. Ukraine served as a great agricultural provider for the rest of the USSR and trade with Europe, additionally its importance grew during the industrial age as a network of pipelines transported great quantities of from Europe to Asia and vice versa, giving Russia even more reason to want Ukraine back in the

Federation. On the 24th of August 1991 90% of Ukrainians voted to leave the USSR and follow its own laws leading to Ukraine’s official independence. The independence paved the way towards the USSR’s dissolution on the 26th of December that year. With that, Ukraine’s economy lived off its high agricultural output and natural gas transportation, nevertheless it faced a plethora of economic challenges and instability.

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On March 16th 2014 a referendum was held in Crimea by the Russian Federation while they carried out the annexation of the autonomous state. Vladimir Putin was heavily criticized for his actions in Crimea regarding the annexation and fueling of the war in Donbass although he claims the annexation of 2014 was to “Protect the interests of ethnic Russians there”, a statement deemed as laughable.

Currently, Russia is trying to regain control over its once unified neighbor Ukraine for several reasons including that Russia wishes to use Ukraine’s gas pipelines (which once belonged to them) for ease of transport, convenience & overall increased profit from their gas industry. Russia considers Ukraine a ‘miniature version of itself’ since during the Russian Empire, small parts of modern Ukraine were called ‘little Russia’. With the lack of Ukraine there is no Eurasian union, a vision which Putin desired to form. Russia believes Ukraine can be influenced by their choices and its history is inextricably linked. Lots of Ukrainians still speak Russian, predominantly in the Eastern region. Lastly, Russia fears a rising revolution which the state has no interest in dealing with

Evidently the long history present between the two countries has made a solution to the political matter at hand, just that much more complex.

The United States of America

Similar to the EU, the US is trying to help Ukraine in achieving peace in the war zone, however, in recent years, following president Trump's election, the US has supplied weapons to the Ukrainian forces including anti-tank missiles. Trump has appeared to be more active in the situation than former president .

President Putin and President Barack Obama spoke over the phone, discussing the crisis in Ukraine. The Kremlin and the White House later released contrasting accounts of the conversation. The Kremlin mentioned that both leaders agreed to work towards a solution in stabilizing Ukraine, although Putin had stressed that the Kiev government had failed to restrain "rampant violence by ultra-nationalists". Barack Obama on several accounts condemned the illegal referendum and called for Moscow to support an international monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine. The EU foreign ministers and US coordinators met to discuss the planned sanctions to be placed on Russia. The US, EU and Canada collaborated to sanction entities (44) and individuals (77) involved in Russia’s illegal actions against Ukraine.

Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc

The All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” is one of the major political parties in the . This is the name given to the bloc of political parties in Ukraine led by the Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Firstly, Yulia Tymoshenko was the first woman elected as Prime Minister of Ukraine and served two terms being 24th January to 8th September 2005 and once again from 18th December 2007 to 4th March 2010. Tymoshenko, though only 58 years old has achieved so much worldwide recognition Research Report | Page 8 of 18

Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session and is seen as an idol to female politicians. She was placed third in Forbes magazine’s List of top 100 powerful women of 2005. Prior to her political involvement, Yulia established the “The Ukrainian Petrol Corporation” in 1991 which supplied fuel to the agricultural industry of Dnipropetrovsk, she worked as the general director. In 1995 the company recognized itself as United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU) and was used as the main importer of Russian natural gas into Ukraine. She was made president, was given the nickname “gas princess”.

Leading into her political career, Tymoshenko was elected to become a member of parliament (MP) of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament). She grew to become a very influential politician in the Verkhovna Rada and formed the All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” (AKA Batkivshchyna) in March 1999. The All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” has now become a leading party in the Ukrainian Revolution standing for becoming a part of the EU.

Now for Yulia Tymoshenko’s more recent political involvement. On October 11th 2011 Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison by the President at the time who was Viktor Yanukovych after she was found guilty of abusing her office when brokering the 2009 gas deal with Russia. Upon her release on the 22nd of February 2014, the concluding days of Euromaidan, a revision of the Criminal Code of Ukraine was carried which lead to the immediate decriminalization of her actions which imprisoned her in the first place. The she allegedly committed was deemed “not a crime” by the Ukrainian Supreme Court after the revision and she was relieved of all her charges. Given the reason of her release, Viktor Yanukovych the man who imprisoned her, had an ulterior motive. Tymoshenko was well known for being a prominent pro-European political party leader yet the former President is a pro-Russian with strong ties to their government meaning he opposed what she stood for. Imprisoning her would eliminate the probability of pro-Europeans challenging him.

Immediately after her release Yulia Tymoshenko travelled to Kiev to attend a makeshift memorial for the slain protestors and gave a speech on Maiden stage. In her speech, she called for action to stop what she mentioned as “Russian aggression” by addressing the European Union, leaders of western democracies and countries which were involved in or signed the Budapest memorandum. Tymoshenko continues to partake in parliamentary activities involving statements given on behalf of the All Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” (AKA Batkivschyna), meeting the coordinator of the US State Department on the issue of Russian sanctions, helping in establishing peace in eastern Ukraine & partaking in the latest 2019 Presidential elections placing 3rd behind and Volodymyr Zelenskiy with 13.4% of the vote.

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Development of Issue/Timeline

Date Event Outcome

1922 The USSR is formed shortly after Ukraine was instantly absorbed the 1917 Russian Revolution by the USSR ending its short- lived independence

August 24th 1991 90% plus choose to leave the Ukraine gained independence. USSR.

December 26th 1991 The USSR dissolves. Along with Ukraine, several other nations that were absorbed by Russia gain independence.

5th December 1994 The UK, The US, & The Russian Ukraine handed over 1,900 Federation sign the Budapest nuclear warheads to Russia for Memorandum on Ukraine disassembly meanwhile security assurance as long as they comply with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

21st November 2013 Former President Viktor Enraged by the choices of the Yanukovych rejects economic pro-Russian leader, peaceful pact proposed by the EU during protestors demonstrated on the the 2013 EU summit favoring a streets of Kiev notably at the bailout of $50bn offered by the Independence AKA Maiden Russian Federations president square Vladimir Putin

22nd February 2014 A snap election was demanded to Pro-European celebrations took remove Yanukovych from post as place across the West. The new President on the grounds that he Ukrainian interim government could not fulfil his duties as was formed to run the country till president. His response was the upcoming presidential strong refusal to step down yet elections. finally ended in his impeachment

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session

28th February 2014 The Euromaidan protests slowly Pro-Russian unrest begins in came to a holt after Yanukovych Eastern Ukraine, the trigger to the and his party were removed from war power.

1st March 2014 Russian-speaking soldiers in Russia annexed the Autonomous unmarked uniforms were seen Republic of Crimea. Russian storming the Crimean Peninsula president Vladimir Putin is heavily seizing several buildings and criticized and the Ukrainian airports in the region. interim govt. calls it an invasion.

16th March 2014 Crimean referendum for leaving 95% plus of the population vote to Ukraine and becoming a part of leave Ukraine. Putin declares Russia. Crimea part of Russia and is slapped with heavy economic sanctions from the US and EU. Celebrations in Crimea occur.

6th April 2014 Death toll of approx. 10,000 with mass displacement.

28th March 2014 UNGA Resolution 68/262 on the Ukraine’s borders are “Territorial Integrity of Ukraine” internationally established and the so-called Crimean

referendum held on the 16th of March 2014 was recognized internationally as illegitimate.

25th May 2014 Early Ukrainian presidential A strongly pro-European active election take place, bringing leader is in power giving the pro- Petro Poroshenko into office. Europeans a shot a solution.

5th September 2014 Minsk-I is formed and signed by A memorandum detailing the the TCG & OSCE. process of establishment of the agreement. Minsk-I fails 2 months later after separatists resume live ammunition.

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12th February 2015 Minsk-II is formed adding onto Unsuccessful as it fails to stop the Minsk-I and is signed by the same conflict in the “grey zone” parties. (Donbas)

31st March & 21st April 2019 A two-rounded election system A new hope for Ukraine at solving resulting in the presidency of the war, with a more Russia- . friendly leader.

Previous Attempts to solve the Issue

Budapest Memorandum

The Budapest memorandum was actually signed far before the crisis in Ukraine in fact closer to its independence from the USSR. The diplomatic memorandum at hand shows relevance to the crisis since a large part of its purpose was to protect Ukraine from acts of war and invasion, securing its sovereignty evidently something that has been violated.

After the dissolution of the USSR, the nuclear warheads once owned by the Soviet Union were left scattered across countries. Ukraine happened to inherit the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world, 1900 of which programmed to strike the US. So, on the 5th of December 1994 in Budapest, Hungary, the United States, the United Kingdom & the Russian Federation put forth an exchange deal of sorts for Ukraine (predominantly) as well as a few other states. The agreement, among other things, stated that Ukraine was to become a party to the Treaty of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and transfer their 1,900 nuclear warheads to Russia for its disassembly. In return the 3 states pledged to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” as well as to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against Ukraine. Since the day of the signing Ukraine have abided by the terms of the agreement while the Kremlin decided to severely violate their commitments from seizing Crimea to arming and supporting pro-Russian separatists in the East fueling the war.

The issue with the memorandum is its unclarity as to whether it is legally binding or not. Technically the document does not impose legal provisions should the terms of the agreement be violated. However, the US and EU have collaborated to impose increasingly heavy sanctions on Russia as mentioned before.

Minsk Protocol/ Minsk-I

On 5th September 2014 Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE (members of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, TCG) signed the Minsk Protocol later to be known as Minsk-I. The Minsk Protocol (Minsk-I) was formed in the Belarusian capital, Minsk (hence the name) along with the Minsk memorandum of September 2014 and the package of Measures for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements (Minsk-II) are the Research Report | Page 12 of 18

Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session documents signed over the course of the war in Donbass all aimed at resolving the conflict in the war zone. Representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic (DPR & LPR) along with the TCG signed the Minsk Protocol, however, the agreement failed to put an end to the fighting. Despite it not ending the war, the agreement did significantly reduce fighting in the conflict zone (grey zone) for several months until it collapsed in Dec 2014 to Jan 2015 after the separatists violated the ceasefire and resumed the violence.

Minsk-I showed great similarity to Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s “fifteen-point peace plan” formed on 20th June 2014. The agreement established the following points: “ensure an immediate ceasefire; carry out decentralization of power, allowing temporary local self-government in areas of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine under a "special status" law; immediately free all hostages and illegally detained persons; ensure monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian border and a security zone; ensure the holding of snap local elections in Donetsk and Luhansk; remove illegal armed groups, military hardware, and all fighters and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory; pass a law against the prosecution and punishment of people over certain events in Donetsk and Luhansk region.”

A follow up memorandum was created and signed two weeks after the Minsk Protocols (19th September) which detailed the process of establishing a ceasefire for examples, it established a 30km demilitarization zone, banned offensives as well as the use of military aviation. This memorandum was a crucial document for the Minsk-I to work, however, did not mention any time frame making it easier to bend the rules. The whole initiative was destined to fail as it was a rushed and lacked solid details.

The package of Measures for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements/ Minsk-II

The Russian-backed separatist groups broke the ceasefire agreement 2 months into its implementation after they resumed the live ammunition and continued to illegally occupy Crimea and Donbass. Two months later Minsk-II was signed by the same representatives (DPR, LPR & TCG) in aims at reviving the initial peace agreements of Minsk-I. Simply put, the Minsk Protocol along with the memorandum failed at resolving the conflict in the so-called “grey zone”. The agreements were adopted as a compromise between the interests of both sides, however, due to its lack of a time frame Russia insisted Ukraine implement the political section of the agreement prior to the security leaving Ukraine’s concerns (safety) for last.

Which is why on the 11th of February 2015, direct negotiations between Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin, presidents of the opposing parties, took place in Minsk. The 16-hour presidential discussions were supervised by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Hollande given that the solution would be preceded by the summit leaders of Germany and France. The negotiations resulted in the formation of the Minsk-II agreements which was the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”, more or less containing the same points as the Minsk-I except in more detail. Its intentions were not to replace the first agreements but to revive and add on in hopes of increasing the chances of a successful ceasefire. A large issue as to why the Minsk agreements are Research Report | Page 13 of 18

Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session ineffective is due to the fact that its international legal status does not exist. The agreements are considered as political accords by the signatories but is Ukraine’s only peace agreements with Russia therefore making it an obligation to them.

Possible Solutions

The situation in Ukraine has not been solved and the war in the East has not subsided. More so, the politically instability in that Region is bad and worsening with international press naming Ukraine’s former leaders as “perfect examples of corruption”. To really understand what is causing the problem one must look into the motives of the two parties.

It is already known that the Western side of Ukraine wishes to join the European Union and keep the East in their possession as the country and its people have gone through a lot to gain independence. Ukraine does not wish to become absorbed into the Russian Federation just like it did in 1922, whether it will benefit the people or not since the citizens (western) believe the countries pride is more important. Conversely, the Russian Federation wishes to retie their cultural link to Ukraine as well as improve and benefit from their agriculture and gas transportation from Asia to Europe. Both countries have different priorities that clash making it hard to compromise.

Hope was given when the new President Volodymyr Zelensky who was elected in Spring of this year came into office as it was said that Ukraine would experience a fundamental change in leadership looking towards a less anti-Moscow nationalist and more cosmopolitan political expert. However, since the inaugural months have passed it has become clear that there is little Zelensky can do about the war since he cannot and does not want to give up Ukraine’s interest in the NATO and EU blocs. Additionally, giving up Ukrainian territory and impeding the sovereignty of the Donbass region, cannot be used as a means to achieve peace with Russia.

In conclusion, a solution for Ukraine’s crisis could be minutes away or another few years away, either way the war in Donbass is currently relying on Russia to take advantage of the new Russia-friendly leader and compromise its self-interest in the country.

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session

Bibliography

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Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2019| 12th Annual Session

Appendix or Appendices

I. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdxG-fLv0vI II. https://medium.com/nonviolenceny/summary-of-the-ukraine-conflict-and-the-situation-today- 3a3119a68c3e III. https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/UA_140905_MinskCeasfire_en.p df IV. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnZ1pr0naF8

Research Report | Page 18 of 18