Assessing the Sustainability Implications of Expansions and Innovations in Refrigerated
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Assessing the Sustainability Implications of Expansions and Innovations in Refrigerated Food Supply Chains by Brent Heard A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Resource Policy and Behavior) in the University of Michigan 2020 Doctoral Committee: Associate Professor Shelie A. Miller Senior Research Specialist Martin A. Heller Professor Gregory A. Keoleian Professor Michael R. Moore Brent Heard [email protected] ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9761-2043 © Brent Heard 2020 Acknowledgements This dissertation would not have been possible without the support of a number of people. First, I’d like to thank my advisor, Dr. Shelie Miller, for the invaluable guidance and teaching she has provided throughout the past five years. Shelie, your unwavering support and patience have allowed me to investigate compelling and unique research topics, and I truly appreciate the trust and advice you have offered me. I would also like to thank my PhD committee: Dr. Gregory Keoleian, Dr. Martin Heller, and Dr. Michael Moore. The insights you all provided were essential to informing the systems approach that my dissertation takes, and enabled me to investigate this topic through a variety of methods and approaches. I would like to thank the University of Michigan’s Rackham Graduate School and National Science Foundation Award #1804287 for supporting my work. Additionally, I would like to extend my thanks to Dr. Andrew Jones and the entirety of the Leveraging Existing Data and Insights into the Policy Process to Accelerate Progress toward Achieving Sustainable Diets in the Global South (EATS) research team for their collaboration. This dissertation also would not have been possible without the excellent support provided by the staff at the SEAS Office of Academic Programs. ii My interest in academic sustainability research was stoked by Dr. H. Scott Matthews. Scott provided invaluable mentorship to me as an undergraduate student at Carnegie Mellon University, motivating my decision to pursue a PhD. Thanks, Scott! I’d like to thank my parents, Diana and Robert, whose care and guidance shaped the person I am today. I am also grateful for the community of colleagues and friends who provided invaluable support throughout these past five years: Sara, Lauren, Jen, Rich, Kevin, Peter, Ping, Morteza, Elham, Stefania, Amelia, and Stan, among many others. Finally, thank you, Chloe. You’ve been endlessly supportive and a constant source of joy in my life. I am so happy to be starting this next chapter with you. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements ii List of Tables v List of Figures viii List of Appendices xiii Abstract xiv Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Critical Research Needed to Examine the Environmental Impacts of Expanded Refrigeration on the Food System 9 Chapter 3: Potential Changes in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Refrigerated Supply Chain Introduction in a Developing Food System 58 Chapter 4: The Influence of Household Refrigerator Ownership on Diets in Vietnam 96 Chapter 5: Greening the Cold Chain 127 Chapter 6: Comparison of Life Cycle Environmental Impacts from Meal Kits and Grocery Store Meals 158 Chapter 7: Conclusion 204 Appendicies 209 iv List of Tables Table 1.1: Overview of dissertation chapters and their corresponding analyses ............................ 3 Table 2.1: Identified food product studies addressing refrigeration, their scope, and inclusion of non-intrinsic factors as scenarios. Slashes indicate the category is partially addressed, and non- intrinsic factors are presented in bold ........................................................................................... 18 Table 4.1: GAMLSS Zero Adjusted Gamma model coefficients for refrigerator ownership and per capita expenditure, predicting on the consumption of food types. The first regression coefficients (1) by food type are for the strictly positive portion of the distribution (μ, log-linked) and the second (2) are for the log odds of zero consumption of each food type (ν, logit link). Control variable coefficients not listed for brevity, but full regression outputs are included in Appendix B.3. ............................................................................................................................. 109 Table 4.2: Percentage of Households in each VHLSS response year which report consuming no quantity of each food type (kcal/day-adult equivalent) and either do or do not own a refrigerator ..................................................................................................................................................... 114 Table 5.1: Cold chain emissions reduction interventions modeled ............................................ 139 Table 5.2: Percentage (top) and absolute reductions (bottom) from the baseline emissions resulting from each intervention modeled. Values are shaded to correspond to the magnitude of emissions reductions compared with the baseline. ..................................................................... 141 v Table 6.1: Monte Carlo Model and Parameter Descriptions ...................................................... 178 Table A.1: Agricultural Production Loss Rate (푅1) Triangular Distribution Parameters by Region and Food Type (% Loss at each FSC Stage) .................................................................. 214 Table A.2 Postharvest Handling and Storage Loss Rate (푅2) Triangular Distribution Parameters by Region and Food Type (% Loss at each FSC Stage) ............................................................. 215 Table A.3: Processing and Packaging Loss Rate (푅3) Triangular Distribution Parameters by Region and Food Type (% Loss at each FSC Stage) .................................................................. 216 Table A.4: Retail Distribution Loss Rate (푅4) Triangular Distribution Parameters by Region and Food Type (% Loss at each FSC Stage) ..................................................................................... 217 Table A.5: Demand (퐹5) Normal Distribution Parameters by Region and Food Type (kg food per capita).................................................................................................................................... 218 Table A.6: Demand-Weighted Agricultural Emissions Factor (퐸퐴) Normal Distribution by Region and Food Type Parameters (kg CO2e/kg food) .............................................................. 219 Table A.7: SSA Demand-Weighted Agricultural Emissions Factor (퐸퐴) Normal Distribution by Developed Region and Food Type Parameters (kg CO2e/kg food) ............................................ 220 Table A.8: Cold Chain Emissions Factor (퐸퐶) Normal Distribution Parameters by Region and Food Type Parameters (kg CO2e/kg food).................................................................................. 223 Table A.9: 365-Day Per Capita Consumption of Each Food Type for Modeled Nationally Recommended Diet for Sub-Saharan Africa .............................................................................. 226 Table B.1:Conversion table and food groups ............................................................................. 233 Table B.2: VHLSS Summary Statistics (2004-2014) ................................................................. 236 vi Table B.3: Starchy Staple Foods GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output .................................... 239 Table B.4 Nuts and Seeds GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output ............................................... 242 Table B.5: Pulses GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output ............................................................ 245 Table B.6: Eggs GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output .............................................................. 248 Table B.7: Flesh Foods GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output ................................................... 251 Table B.8: Vegetables GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output ..................................................... 254 Table B.9: Fruit GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output ............................................................... 257 Table B.10: Dairy GAMLSS ZAGA Regression Output ........................................................... 260 Table B.11: Average kcal/day/adult equivalent in VHLSS Data (2004-2014) ........................... 261 Table C.1: Supply Chain Model Baseline Values ...................................................................... 274 Table D.1: Meal Kit Ingredients and Food-Specific Packaging Masses .................................... 279 Table D.2: Grocery Meal Ingredients and Food-Specific Packaging Masses ............................ 283 Table D.3: Food and Packaging Emissions Characterization Values ......................................... 290 Table D.4: Food Loss and Waste Rates, Retail Refrigeration Indicator ..................................... 293 Table D.5: Monte Carlo Simulation Results ............................................................................... 294 Table D.6: Meal Kit Median Emissions Contributions by Process ............................................ 295 Table D.7: Grocery Meal Median Emissions Contributions by Process .................................... 297 Table D.8: Additional Environmental Impact Values for the Production of Food and Packaging ..................................................................................................................................................... 307 vii List of Figures Figure 1.1: Visual representation of the relationship between refrigeration, the food system, and the food-energy-water