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Pdf/523747/Wio9781780401263.Pdf by IWA Publishing User on 04 March 2019 Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall ©2019 The Author(s) This is an Open Access book distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives Licence (CC BY-NC- ND 4.0), which permits copying and redistribution for non-commercial purposes, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). This does not affect the rights licensed or assigned from any third party in this book. This title was made available Open Access through a partnership with Knowledge Unlatched. IWA Publishing would like to thank all of the libraries for pledging to support the transition of this title to Open Access through the KU Select 2018 program. Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/523747/wio9781780401263.pdf by IWA Publishing user on 04 March 2019 Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems and Urban Drainage Extremes Change on Rainfall Climate Impacts of Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems P. Willems, J. Olsson, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, S. Beecham, A. Pathirana, Impacts of Climate I. Bülow Gregersen, H. Madsen and V.T.V. Nguyen Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Change on Rainfall Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and Extremes and Urban hydraulics. This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the Drainage Systems climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage P. Willems, J. Olsson, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, infrastructure design and management. Nguyen H. MadsenA. Gregersen, and V.T.V. I. Bülow Pathirana, P. Willems, J. Olsson, K. Willems, J. Olsson, Beecham, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, S. P. S. Beecham, A. Pathirana, I. Bülow Gregersen, H. Madsen and V.T.V. Nguyen www.iwapublishing.com ISBN: 9781780401256 (Paperback) ISBN: 9781780401263 (eBook) Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/523747/wio9781780401263.pdf by IWA Publishing user on 04 March 2019 Practices Impacts layout_3.0.indd 1 28/07/2012 16:34 Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/523747/wio9781780401263.pdf by IWA Publishing user on 04 March 2019 Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems Patrick Willems, Jonas Olsson, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Simon Beecham, Assela Pathirana, Ida Bülow Gregersen, Henrik Madsen and Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/523747/wio9781780401263.pdf by IWA Publishing user on 04 March 2019 Published by IWA Publishing Alliance House 12 Caxton Street London SW1H 0QS, UK Telephone: +44 (0)20 7654 5500 Fax: +44 (0)20 7654 5555 Email: [email protected] Web: www.iwapublishing.com First published 2012 © 2012 IWA Publishing Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act (1998), no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the publisher, or, in the case of photographic reproduction, in accordance with the terms of licenses issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency in the UK, or in accordance with the terms of licenses issued by the appropriate reproduction rights organization outside the UK. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here should be sent to IWA Publishing at the address printed above. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for errors or omissions that may be made. Disclaimer The information provided and the opinions given in this publication are not necessarily those of IWA and should not be acted upon without independent consideration and professional advice. IWA and the Author will not accept responsibility for any loss or damage suffered by any person acting or refraining from acting upon any material contained in this publication. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 9781780401256 (Paperback) ISBN 9781780401263 (eBook) Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/523747/wio9781780401263.pdf by IWA Publishing user on 04 March 2019 Contents About the IGUR ............................................................. xi About the Authors ......................................................... xiii Acknowledgements ....................................................... xvii Acronyms ................................................................. xix Executive Summary ...................................................... xxiii Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................ 1 1.1 Need for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Urban Drainage . 1 1.2 Overview of Climate Change Impact Assessment for Urban Drainage . 2 1.3 Scope and Limitations . 5 1.4 Book Outline . 5 Chapter 2 Modelling and analysis of rainfall extremes in a stationary context ........... 7 2.1 Stochastic Rainfall Generation by Point Process Theory . 7 2.2 Multifractal and Cascade Processes . 12 2.3 Rainfall Disaggregation . 14 2.4 Statistical Rainfall Extreme Value Analysis . 17 PDS/POT based analysis . 17 Extreme value distributions . 17 Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/523747/wio9781780401263.pdf by IWA Publishing user on 04 March 2019 vi Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems Distribution parameter estimation . 19 Regional analysis . 21 2.5 IDF Relationships . 22 2.6 Design Storms . 24 2.7 Point Versus Areal Rainfall . 25 2.8 Discussion . 26 Chapter 3 Variability, trends and non-stationarity in extreme rainfall and runoff ........ 27 3.1 Trends in Rainfall Processes and Extremes . 27 Methods ................................................................ 27 Results ................................................................. 30 3.2 Trends Versus Climate Oscillations . 38 3.3 Trends in Urban Runoff: Changes due to Climate and Urbanization . 45 3.4 Discussion . 45 Chapter 4 Climate models ............................................................ 47 4.1 Atmospheric Modelling . 47 Weather versus climate modelling . 47 Physical basis . 48 Boundary conditions . 49 Regional models . 50 4.2 Climate Forcing Scenarios . 52 4.3 GCM Simulations . 55 4.4 Discussion . 57 Chapter 5 Dynamical approach to downscaling of rainfall ............................. 59 5.1 Dynamical Downscaling . 60 5.2 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) . 60 RCMs in general . 60 Precipitation computation in RCMs . 61 Nesting in RCMs . 62 Local data for RCM simulations . 63 5.3 RCM Simulations . 63 5.4 Limited Area Models (LAMs) . 64 5.5 Fine-Scale Rainfall Results in Case Studies . 65 Orography and rainfall . 66 Better results from dynamic downscaling . 66 Urban land use change and local rainfall . 70 5.6 Discussion . 72 Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/523747/wio9781780401263.pdf by IWA Publishing user on 04 March 2019 Contents vii Chapter 6 Evaluation of dynamically downscaled rainfall .............................. 73 6.1 Reliability of Climate Simulations by GCMs and RCMs . 73 6.2 Reason of Differences between GCM/RCM Results and Observations . 79 6.3 Uncertainty in Climate Impact Projections from Various GCMs/RCMs and Different Scenarios . 82 6.4 Discussion . 86 Chapter 7 Statistical approach to downscaling of urban rainfall extremes .............. 89 7.1 Motivation for Statistical Downscaling as Compared to Dynamical Downscaling . 89 7.2 Delta Change and Climate Factors . 92 7.3 Empirical Transfer Functions . 94 General empirical downscaling . 94 Separation of downscaling and bias correction steps . 96 Quantile mapping . 98 7.4 Re-Sampling Methods or Weather Typing . 99 7.5 Conditional Probability-based or Stochastic Modelling . 103 7.6 Verification of Statistically Downscaled Climate Model Results . 105 7.7 Discussion . ..
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