Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

Somali Futures: an exploration

Pilot Survey July 2011

Humanitarian Futures Programme 1 King’s College, London Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

Contents

Preface 6 1. Background 7 2. Methodology 8 3. Focus group findings

I. National Identity 11 a. Values and Traditions b. Clan and Clanism c. The future of the Somali Language d. The Future of Pastoralism

II. Society: Family, the Role of Women and Religion 15 a. The Family b. The Role of Women c. Religion

III. The Experience of Emigration: the Diaspora and the Role of the Business 17 Community

IV. Governance: Future Peace and Reconstruction 19 a. Future peace b. Reconstruction

V. Individuals’ views of the future 21

4. Pilot project findings 22

5. Conclusions and Recommendations 25

End notes 27 Annex I: Research Brief 28 Annex II: Brief Bibliography 30

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Executive summary

1. Somali Futures: An exploration is an initiative of King’s were under threat from foreign influences, including College, London’s Humanitarian Futures Programme to Arabic and English.

explore how Somalis see their future and that of future 6. The main findings under the topic of society included generations. Supported by the United Nations the sense that the strength of Somali families is being Development Programme ‐ Somali office, the undermined by the experience of emigration and overarching purpose of this initiative is to determine if separation. Discussants repeatedly stressed that a good there are any consistent themes that emerge from education for their children is a high priority for the extensive engagement with a sample of Somali future. Many Somalis agree that women have much to respondents that might prompt different forms of contribute to national political life, and younger women, support to the Somali people; in particular, regard the participation of women in 2. With that overarching goal in mind, this initiative is a national leadership as vitally necessary and overdue. A pilot survey that eventually will lead to four specific minority (mainly, but not exclusively, men) are strongly objectives: (i) using futures perspectives to look for of the view that women should lead only in the family. alternative ways to promote more acceptable forms of When it comes to religion, Islam is a vital part of Somalis' governance; (ii) to support UN and Somali planning sense of identity. Somalis want the country's Islamic efforts through tested forms of futures‐oriented nature and traditions to be preserved and voiced the scenario and simulation exercises; (iii) to analyse wish that their families should receive a good religious possible differences between the aspirations of those (i.e., Islamic) education. A minority hoped for an Islamic living abroad (the Diaspora) and indigenous Somalis; and government; (iv) to test a methodology based upon futures 7. Under the Experience of Emigration, it was noted that perspectives that might have applicability for other about a fifth of Somalis have gone abroad, and many of conflict‐affected countries and regions; those in the Diaspora provide regular financial support 3. The pilot survey’s methodology was based principally in the form of remittances. There was virtual unanimity upon focus groups held in various parts of Somalia, for the proposition that the Diaspora has a crucial role to Somaliland, the United Kingdom and the United States. play both in bringing peace and in rebuilding the In total 229 Somali discussants took part in the survey. country. It was accepted that the Somali business Focus groups concentrated on four themes: (i) Somalis community, both in the Diaspora and in Somalia, is today; (ii) the Somali homeland today; (iii) the Somali talented and successful, and could be of considerable homeland in the future; and (iv) Somalis and the future; importance when it comes to Somali development At

4. Focus groups’ discussion topics centred on national the same time, some groups felt that Somali identity, which included values and traditions, clan and businessmen had benefitted from the absence of state regulation and control. Some claimed that the massive clanism, the Somali language and pastoralism; society, which included family, the role of women and religion; sums received in Somalia in remittances from the the experience of emigration, including the Diaspora Diaspora were being "invested in destruction" by clan leaders and warlords. This was seen as business and business community; governance, peace and reconstruction; and individual views of the future. indirectly contributing to the lack of a functioning government. 5. Focus group findings based upon the topics noted in #4, above, suggested that under the heading of national 8. Under Governance, there was general optimism about identity, considerable pride existed in the Somali the future. Some see the absence of a functioning state as an opportunity to start afresh with a "clean sheet." language, culture and clans. On the other hand, clanism was condemned, the decline of pastoralism was Others look upon the experience of emigration as foreseen as was the rise of urban crises and the positive, equipping Somalis with education and new alienation of youth. The Somali language and culture skills which can be deployed to reconstruct the country.

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Some expressed the view that those fighting would, adapt, they were less and less in control of their own either through exhaustion or the realisation that they fates;

were getting nowhere, lay down their arms and that 12. As for cross‐cutting methodological issues, there were peace would, in time, prevail. There was also a general four inter‐related findings: (i) concepts such as “future,” view that Somalis have been responsible for the collapse “progress” and “improvements” were difficult to of their country, and that they are the ones who must separate from participants’ own experiences, and these reconstruct it. A small minority blamed external forces in turn were defined in terms of immediate problems for Somalia's plight. About half said that, without an and opportunities; (ii) having the project’s concept pass improvement in the economy, political progress was through a series of intermediaries, viz, project designers, unlikely. Discussants in and from Somaliland expressed project implementers and focus group moderators – strong approval of the political progress made in made an appreciation of the project’s purpose and Somaliland, and saw international recognition (of objectives even more difficult to inculcate in focus Somaliland as a state) as a crucial priority. groups; (iii) moderators’ guidelines (See #3, above) 9. Individual views of the future involved questions about made it too easy for participants to ignore the futures how discussants hoped to be living in ten years' time. concept and fall back into their “comfort zones” of the While a minority objected to these questions on present; and (iv) due to security issues, efforts to engage religious grounds, a striking unanimity was evident: those who do not normally have a voice about their Somalis want peace and the opportunity to provide nations’ future were difficult to identify and engage;

adequately for their families. They repeatedly stressed 13. As a pilot project, the conclusions and recommendations the importance of good educational provision. are tentative. At this stage, the project proposes two sets 10. There are three levels of findings that emerged out of each of substantive and methodological conclusions and this pilot survey: recommendations. In the former category, the first

i. The first has to do with specific topics that were conclusion is the need to reconcile the seeming paradox discussed in interviews and focus groups, and between the Somali sense that what is Somali is being eroded in fundamental ways, while on the other hand these are encapsulated in items #4‐9, above. there would appear to be an equally consistent belief ii. The second level focuses upon cross‐cutting amongst Somalis that Somalis can find their own substantive issues that arose out of the project’s solutions. From these three recommendations emerge: efforts to engage with a wide spectrum of Somalis; (i) to promote Somali solutions the business community iii. the third concerns the utility of the pilot study’s will be essential, and it can be used to promote approach and methodology eventually to arrive at employment generating small and medium sized the four “products” that would result from the commercial ventures; (ii) to build practical linkages Somali Futures focus over time (See: #2, above). between overseas academic and technical institutes that 11. Cross‐cutting substantive findings included (i) that there have Diaspora faculty with businesses and related was general consistency between the views of the institutions in Somalia and Somaliland; and (iii) to Diaspora and those of indigenous Somalis, (ii) that support indigenous efforts to promote and disseminate Somalis for this project seemed to suffer from an Somali art and literature within Somalia and Somaliland, identity crisis resulting from the difficulties of being part seeking the involvement of the Diaspora towards this of a society perceived to be in major transition; (iii) that end; there was a general belief that fundamental changes in 14. The second conclusion is that a good proportion of Somali society and customs were inevitable and that Somalis feel that the international community does not “there was no turning back;” (iv) that the concept of clan understand them, or that in some instances does not – as opposed to clanism – was acknowledged as have the best interests of Somalis at heart, Hence, it is fundamentally important; (v) that, led in no small part recommended that (i) those governments of countries by the business community, Somalis could adapt to the with Somali Diaspora and those Diaspora communities, dynamics of globalisation; and (vi) while Somalis could themselves, should develop networks intended to seek

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ways to promote greater understanding about the 16. There is a clear need to broaden the interview base in customs, needs and objectives of each, in part as one subsequent exercises in order to achieve the project’s step to promote peace and economic growth within objectives. Various constraints, eg, security, affected the Somalia and Somaliland, and (ii) through the proposed mix of participants in this pilot survey, and these might networks promote local commerce and industrial continue in the immediate term. Nevertheless, greater capacities, with focus on employment creation; attention needs to be given to explain to focus group

15. As for conclusions and recommendations pertaining to monitors and interviewers the participant mix that will be required to achieve the objectives of the project. In a methodology, it is apparent that survey participants were often unclear about what was meant by “futures” related vein, greater efforts have to be made to work and what the purpose of the enquiry was. Towards this with futures group monitors and interviewers to ensure end more futures‐oriented tools should be used, a common understanding about the project’s concept and objectives. including culturally sensitive scenario exercises. These exercises would serve as an essential preliminary step before undertaking focus group discussions;

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Preface

Two women dressed in colourful robes came out of the bush near the town of Baidoa leading camels onto the dusty road that led to Mogadishu, some 130 miles away. We stopped our vehicle, and through a translator began to talk to them about conditions in their village, crops, food availability and cattle prices. And then just before we parted, one final question that seemed to bear little relevance to the discussion we had been having. “If you think about the future, what do you wish for?” With hardly a pause, both replied, “Education for our children.”

In no small part, the basis for Somali Futures: An exploration had its genesis in that brief conversation almost a decade ago. It seemed surprising that in the midst of harsh and tumultuous times, the two women appeared able to step back from day‐to‐day challenges and be able to speculate beyond the immediate.

Nine years later – for reasons that are noted in the introduction that follows – a pilot project was put together to see if one could capture the ways that Somalis who are not normally part of the discourse on the future of their country might think about a future that they would hope to have for their children and children’s children. As will be discussed in the section that deals with methodology, this pilot project opened up complex cultural and sociological challenges, and one would hope that lessons from these can be built into the proposed follow‐up analyses.

From the perspective of those who have undertaken this pilot project, the opportunity to ask the question about Somalis’ futures was more than justified; and with that in mind, the Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) would like to thank Mr David Stephen, the lead researcher and Dr. Laura Hammond; the focus group facilitators and the survey participants for their commitment and enthusiasm; Dr. Neil MacDonald who in various ways provided some of the background to cultural determinants affecting perceptions about futures; and Ms Maya Karunaratne as a research assistant also deserves HFP’s thanks.

HFP also would also like to thank the United Nations Development Programme – Somalia and the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs for all their support.

Humanitarian Futures Programme King’s College, London 25 July 2011

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1. Background origins to a common source of the mythical Hiil, the fact remains that there continues to be debate about whether How does a people, a nation look at its future – not necessarily Somalia’s clanic structure has over time been a source of in terms of the immediate, but in decades’ time? All too often instability rather than stability. issues of governance, reform and security are proposed and And who in effect is a Somali? This is a nation of an estimated pursued with little attention given to the aspirations of those 7.4 million people, where almost 14% of the population have for whom they are intended, chosen to live outside Somalia. The Diaspora continue to Somali Futures: An exploration is an initiative of King’s College provide substantial resources for their families and for London’s Humanitarian Futures Programme, (HFP) and business ventures in Somalia, and it is estimated that 23% of supported by the United Nations Development Programme household income stems directly from them. The motives for Somali Office. It is intended to explore how Somalis see their such transfer flows include the assumption among many future and that of future generations. The overarching Somali Diaspora that ultimately they will return home or purpose of this initiative is to determine if there are any spend a portion of their lives in their nation of origin and a consistent themes that emerge from extensive engagement portion in their adopted countries. Hence, to be Somali is not with a large sample of Somali respondents that might prompt necessarily a matter of geography, but perhaps one of culture. different forms of support to the Somali people and their However, to what extent does becoming part of another nation. society change Somali attitudes about their own culture, and For almost twenty years, the international community has to what extent does that through what might be described as attempted to introduce measures to promote democratic the remittance culture influence Somali attitudes at home? governance, security sector reform and disarmament to a All these uncertainties pose many challenges. For this HFP nation rife with conflict, poverty and disharmony. Since the fall initiative, they present two fundamental opportunities for of Syad Barre in 1991, there have been fifteen formal planning from the future. In the first place, one needs to ask initiatives, supported by the United Nations and multilateral about the extent to which the accumulative impacts of and bilateral donors, to introduce stability through various decades of humanitarian crises, violent conflict and forms of transitional governmental arrangements. The fear deprivation might lead the people of Somalia to look for that Somalia is becoming a base for radical fundamentalism alternative futures? In other words, while one recognises that has prompted further efforts to strengthen government among so many Somalis survival and immediate stability must structures and to eliminate those that threaten such efforts. be of paramount concern, if given the opportunity to explore To date such well‐intentioned efforts by the international what might be, what would a Somali vision of the future look community have been notable for their lack of success. like? Would there be common aspirations and themes? By It may, therefore, be time to take a step back from existing asking Somalis to consider what the future might look like assumptions about Somalia’s lack of governability, and seek beyond the immediate, would the future merely be a different approaches and solutions to the seemingly perpetual reflection of the challenges of the present? crises that have haunted that nation for two decades and A second opportunity for more futures‐oriented planning more. would arise from a better appreciation of the ways that There is no doubt that the frustrations that have arisen after Somalis inside and outside their country might influence the almost two decades of attempts to restore stability and good ways that each sees prospects for the future. To what extent governance to the Somali nation have taken their toll in terms are prospects for the future inhibited or stimulated by the of the international community’s attitudes towards that environments in which each exists? Does the life of the beleaguered nation. Diaspora, for example, in Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United Somalia, despite decades of active intervention by the States influence their thinking about a Somali future, or international community, is replete with “unknowns.” alternatively is the future of that Diaspora similar to the Generally described as unusually “ethnically homogenous” for visions of those within Somalia? Africa, Somalis have ‐ despite being bound by a common language, religion and culture ‐ failed to achieve stability throughout their history. For a people who trace their clanic

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Somali Futures: An exploration has one overarching goal, in Somalia to determine the extent to which the former might namely, to open a dialogue among the people of Somalia influence the longer‐term aspirations of the latter and vice about the future that transcends the immediate anxieties and versa. The impact of the Somali Diaspora as well as the conflicts of the present. In so doing, the proposed dialogue is Diaspora from a host of other countries is significant. In many intended to help use longer‐term visions to suggest new instances, substantial portions of national populations depend objectives and approaches for planning the future of Somalia. upon the remittances and access afforded by those nationals Underpinning this project is the well‐founded assumption, who now reside abroad. That certainly is the case for Somalia. drawn from the world of scenario development and As one attempts to survey longer‐term Somali aspirations, the simulation, that when given an opportunity to speculate about Diaspora may well play important roles in two inter‐related the longer term, people tend to abandon the constraints and senses. In the first place, it would be important to determine disputes of the present for the opportunity of envisioning the extent to which their experiences overseas influence the what might be. way they see Somali futures. The second would be to see to

With that overarching goal in mind, this initiative has four what extent there is consistency between their perspective on specific objectives which will be developed further as a result futures and their clanic and community affiliations in their country of origin; of follow up surveys:

1. using futures perspectives, to look for alternative ways 4. to test a methodology based upon futures perspectives that might have applicability for other conflict‐affected to promote more acceptable forms of governance by engaging Somalis through what organisational analysts and social countries and regions. International efforts to promote peace psychologists see as “non‐threatening” forms of discourse. and stability have all too often resulted in sub‐optimal outcomes. This certainly has been the conclusion of the United This objective, principally achieved through interviews conducted within agreed locations in Somalia as well as Nations, and the record in Somalia fits sadly into that same 1 selected Diaspora centres, will result in a pilot survey of mould. However, if the exploratory exercise to be taken in Somalia demonstrates positive and useful outcomes, there attitudes and aspirations. It will be used as the basis of a series of follow‐up group meetings at various governance levels, may well be an approach and methodology that might be including community groups and clan elders, to discuss the applicable to other fragile countries. It is with this in mind that consequences of the survey for governance approaches and the joint initiative includes an experts’ review of the implications of this initiative to test its greater applicability for structures; longer‐term strategic planning for governance approaches and 2. to support UN and Somali planning efforts through structures. tested forms of scenario and simulation exercises, based upon futures perspectives. Based upon the results of the survey and The project’s abiding aim is to have practical impact upon follow‐up exercises, the joint initiative will explore ways that Somalis' options for the ways that their society may be governed in the future. Through this initial survey process, Somali visions might be implemented. This would in the first instance involve the development and implementation of described below, it is hoped that the project’s overall scenario and simulation exercises that would be conducted objectives can begin to be achieved. around the country as well as at various Diaspora centres to 2. Methodology* map alternative approaches for achieving identified governance approaches and structures. For the UN Country A pilot study, based on focus group discussions, was Team in Somalia, these exercises would also offer a conducted in Somalia, Somaliland, Kenya, the United Kingdom, methodology for strategic planning for integrated political, and the United States over a period of six weeks in February development and humanitarian support to the Somali people and March 2011. The aim was to assemble groups of Somalis, that might be more closely aligned to Somalis’ own both among those living abroad and among those who have aspirations ; continued to live in Somalia and Somaliland to seek their views about the future of Somalis from a longer‐term perspective, 3. to analyse possible differences between the aspirations from, for example, the perspective of their aspirations for their of the Diaspora and those populations that continue to reside children as adults. In all, a total of 229 Somali discussants

* see Annex I: Research brief

8 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 took part in the project (see Table). consulted, the views of established leaders or spokespersons were not sought as part of this project. In some locations it Location Number of Number of participants focus groups was noted that those “with time on their hands” (such as older persons) were more prepared to take part than others. Mogadishu 25 4 Participants overall, however, tended to be in early middle age Bossasso 55 6 (30‐39). The objective of a 50/50 division of male/female Galkayo 6 1 participants proved difficult to achieve; some women were Hargeisa 16 4 reluctant to respond positively to invitations to take part. To cope with this imbalance, some moderators convened Burao 4 1 separate focus groups of youth, women and elders. Most of Berbera 4 1 the participants were employed or self‐employed. A London 35 6 considerable proportion of participants in Somalia, Somaliland and Kenya reported that they were in receipt of remittances Bristol 37 5 from relatives living abroad. Nairobi 29 3 Moderators were asked to avoid prompting, and not to raise Washington DC 18 3 direct or leading questions about politics or religion. In other words, general guiding questions were posed, not specific Moderators of these groups were qualified and experienced questions requiring a finite answer. No information about clan male, Somali research consultants, except in the United States, was requested by the moderators nor was ethnicity raised as where a female US social scientist conducted the groups. an issue by the moderators in the focus group discussions. Discussions were, except in the United States, conducted in However, the issue of clan arose frequently, and is reported the Somali language, although there were cases, notably in the here when it was raised as a topic by participants themselves. United Kingdom, where younger Somalis preferred to use English. Moderators wrote reports on the groups, detailing the The survey was not an attitude survey or an opinion poll, and discussion points within the groups. no attempt was made to assess political attitudes. However, it was impossible for the participants to discuss the future Participants in the Focus Groups were chosen by the without some analysis of their views of the current state of "snowball" sample approach, involving the self‐selection of affairs. Because such views are an important component of contacts. Every attempt was then made to ensure that there the overall mindset of Somalis today, they are reported on was fair representation in terms of age, economic status, here. gender, and ethnicity in the focus groups. A typical group might therefore comprise a business person, heads of family The moderators reported some initial hesitation on the part of (ideally one male and one female), an older person and a some of the discussants. One said Somalis were undergoing young person. For the Diaspora, efforts were made to include what he called "research overload syndrome." In both London a fair representation of Somali‐born as well as overseas‐born and Washington, some participants voiced the complaint that participants and (in Somalia/Somaliland) those from the clans too many surveys and inquiries are being aimed at Somalis, living in the area. and doubted their usefulness. One moderator felt there was a serious problem of trust. Several participants sought Focus group sessions lasted at least two hours. Four themes reassurances that no government was involved. One were covered: Somalis today; the Somali homeland today; the interviewee, a thirty‐seven year old academic in Washington, Somali homeland in the future; and Somalis and the future. DC, asked about his dream for the future, commented, "I have All focus groups were held in neutral locations, and no fees no dreams. I see reality and how it is now. There are no were paid to participants. Probably because participants were dreams for the future." It seems clear, however, that, despite those who responded positively to an invitation to take part, some initial reservations, most participants took part fully and those who took part were ‐ in the opinion of the moderators ‐ sincerely in this exercise. probably better educated, more articulate, and with more Moderators reported lively ‐ in some cases passionate ‐ formed opinions, than the Somali population as a whole. discussions. They also reported that many participants Because the aim was to consult people who are not normally

9 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 commented afterwards that they had found the exercise Futurism is a discipline that is still coming of age. Only useful and enlightening. Several participants expressed relatively recently has “the future” as part of a discourse on gratitude for having been invited to take part. Many “progress” emerged, and that for the most part has been a appreciated the Somali Futures approach and said that they Western phenomenon.3 More and more, however, scholars hoped the findings of the project would be useful to Somalis in are recognising that the West’s perceived “monopoly of general. Overall, discussants were hopeful, although in some dreams” presents a false spectre.4 Clearly other cultures can cases there were swings (notably among long‐time residents have rather different and non‐linear views of the future, as in abroad) between what one moderator termed "dream‐like the cyclical Hindu cosmology.5 nostalgia for the homeland, and a realism bordering on In a related vein it is worth recalling the warning that “when cynicism." But, as another moderator put it, "Even the drawing up a questionnaire we tend to forget how pessimists were not hopeless about the future of Somali and circumscribed our own experience is, and we take for granted Somalis." that whatever the word means to us, it will mean the same to

Methodology in a cultural and sociological context someone else.”6 Where in this context, is there a common

One of the reasons for embarking upon this pilot project, as understanding of that very word, “future” ? noted in #4, above, was to see to what extent the Added to the possible challenges posed by culture and methodology and products in this initiative can be used for definition is that of context. To what extent are responses other situations in which conflict‐afflicted societies and states about the future circumscribed by the prism of the present. As may be seeking to define their future. This objective has noted by a leading theoretician in the realm of futures, a “less methodological implications worth noting. remarked danger is that a preoccupation with what is likely to

A small number of discussants in the Somali Futures pilot happen tends to obscure outcomes that may be unlikely but still possible and potentially more desirable….(lulling) us into a project were uncomfortable when asked to set out their visions of the future. They said that this was a "Western" false sense of having exhausted the available options, thereby 7 approach, since the future was a matter for Allah alone to narrowing the set of choices considered actionable.” decide. In that sense, these respondents raised a fundamental issue about the possibility of cultural determinants affecting responses about the future.2

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3. Focus group findings family members" were, for him, the characteristics that had seen Somalis through a period of anarchy. In Nairobi and I) National Identity Washington discussants told of incidents where Somalis had come to the aid of fellow‐countrymen, for example, after Summary : Discussants were asked to consider what defines accidents in the street. London groups concluded that them as Somali, what features of their country they are proud generosity and sharing resources were part of being Somali. of, and how they see the future for the society, including its Somalia is, according to one discussant, " The only place where language and culture and the pastoralist lifestyle. What Somalis feel masters of their own world.....coming to another emerged was a strong sense of pride in being Somali, and in country, not only do they not feel masters, their self‐esteem the culture, language and traditions of Somalis, including has been crushed." pride in Somali values ("peace and milk") and in the beauty of Somali countryside. Pride in being Somali is not specifically Those in and from Somaliland consistently expressed pride in linked to a given political entity, however, except in the case of the political achievements of Somaliland, and in the peace Somaliland. Generally, it was felt that belonging to a clan was achieved there. Elsewhere, being Somali was seen a crucial aspect of Somali identity, but clanism, or clan chau‐ (Washington) as involving identification with a common vinism, was condemned as negative. A strong sense of identifi‐ culture, language, traditions, art, music, dance and literature, cation with the notion of being Somali, however, existed or (Bristol) as speaking the same language and sharing the alongside an awareness that Somali values derive, historically, same culture and religion. In Puntland and Nairobi almost all from a pastoralist way of life that is now dead or dying, and discussants agreed that "belonging to the same country and unsustainable in a globalised world. It was also widely felt sharing the same culture and religion...regardless of physical that the Somali language is in serious danger. There was a location" made them Somali. Being Somali involves shared general view that the relationship between rural Somalia and language, coming from the Horn of Africa and being born of the cities was in crisis. Rural incomers to the cities, particularly Somali parents (Bristol). Pride in the beauty and fertility of unemployed youths, were seen as rootless, violent, beggars, much of Somalia, including its sea coast, was also seen as part who provided recruits for, and therefore sustain, armed of being Somali. groups. However, confidence that Somalis would solve their Even though armed conflict was regarded as the greatest political problems was widespread. There was some evidence challenge facing Somalis, and children in Somalia had never (notably in the UK) that some younger overseas Somalis do known stable Somali government, with "even normal not hold the same views as their parents and have little or no television footage on Somalia showing someone interest in Somali language and culture. fighting" (Hawa, 40, mother), there remained a strong sense of pride in being Somali. In Somaliland, this took the form of a. Values and Traditions pride in the peace that has been achieved there. Hawa said she was pleased that "(Somaliland)...is so united and strong‐ Although one discussant in Mogadishu thought the physical headed in our sovereignty. " Somalilanders also voiced pride in appearance of Somalis made them distinctively Somali, the country's education system and in the democratisation geography, clan, and adherence to Islam were generally seen process. "I'm pleased with the fact that I am able to access all as defining elements of Somali identity. Other characteristics, social services without any discrimination. This kind of peace too, were also seen as crucial. Groups in Nairobi and Puntland of mind is very healthy, " said Abdihakim, 32, a lawyer. "I linked "Somali songs, poetry, shared culture, shared religion, thank Allah everyday that I don't have any other country," said land, resources, livestock, and belonging to one culture Halima, 40, unemployed. Nasra said, "I walk around because of a shared blood line" with "helping each other, and downtown Hargeisa in the afternoons, and I can't help but be a way of life which is egalitarian or communitarian in nature," in awe of the progress our business community has made." according to the moderator. Others in Somaliland said that the elections there had been "Being resilient and with a survival spirit was what made me better than those held in Kenya or Ethiopia. Somali" said Abdi, a fifty‐year old London businessman. In Yet, despite the violence in parts of Somalia, Somalis Mogadishu, Jalle, a mechanic, saw being Somali as in itself a consistently expressed pride in their country's values and way of life: "supporting others in time of need, hosting and traditions and voiced confidence in its future. Groups in providing food for travellers and guests, and taking care of

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Washington attached great importance to the Somali culture using the internet, as well as by making personal telephone of "peace and milk". Participants valued the blue flag, the calls. Many said they frequently watch Universal, the Somali rivers, the fish in the ocean: Somalia was seen as a "land of language cable TV channel, or Aljazeera, and listen to the BBC poets." In Bristol discussants remembered family as the best Somali Service and the Voice of America. Nevertheless, there thing in Somalia. Somali women in Bristol saw family, the seems to be a tendency for younger Somalis to receive news warm tropical climate, and the food, as good points in about their country through their parents. A 29‐year old Somalia, contrasting the open nature of Somali society with female from Bosaasso said, "Even if you don't listen to radio, what they considered to be the closed nature of British people will call you and tell you what is happening." In Nairobi society. Most discussants agreed with the proposition that and in Puntland, more than 90% of respondents reported that Somalia is a destroyed country, but there was also a strong they follow events in Somalia constantly. A 42‐year old shop conviction that Somalis can and will rebuild their country owner in the Washington district said that he phones Somalia "once a credible government is in place... Somalis are tough at least once a week, despite having been in the US for 25 people and the country will ultimately prevail," said a fifty‐five years. Others noted that Somalia is a "very oral culture," some year old man living in Washington DC. of whom added that since there were few jobs available

Somalis revealed deep knowledge and awareness of people have time to "waste in teashops and around marfashes (qat chewing sessions.)" In Hargeisa Ahmad, 27, a student, international and Somali current affairs. Indeed, it became clear that, except for a small minority (mainly of Somali youths commended, in particular, a BBC programme called "Talk to living in the UK), Somalis take an avid interest in events in their your People." Nasra, 52, civil society, agreed. "It's truly unprecedented," she said. country by listening to the radio, watching television, and

12 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 b. Clan and Clanism the need for Somali leaders to look to the future and forget about negative episodes in their history. A group of women in The clan system was seen as an essential part of Somali national identity. The clan system made Somalis know about Bristol listed clan chauvinism as a major challenge confronting their families, relatives and their "bigger Somali family." One Somalia, together with violent conflict, desertification, environmental degradation, qat and family disintegration and moderator commented that "their tribal heritage and knowing where they descended from was also very important to them breakdown caused by separation. In Somaliland, one and it offered them uniqueness that differentiated them from discussant said that while she recognised that the concept of clan had been helpful in mobilising support for the other people." The practice of remembering genealogy or abtiris ‐ whereby Somalis learn their family tree by heart ‐ was establishment of Somaliland, there was now a danger of clan agreed in one London focus group to be a vital part of Somali chauvinism in the area. Several Somalilanders agreed with this identity. "It is what can unlock the history of our collective point of view. For Zahra, 23, "Clan has been beneficial in some regards , but tends to take us back." Clan chauvinism and greater Somali family," said Ahmed, 70, a grandfather. Khadra, a Mogadishu housewife, said, "This is my country because it is nepotism are the biggest challenge for Ige, 63. She deplored where my children can be surrounded by their family and the fact that "each clan has its own propaganda machine." relatives." c. The Future of the Somali Language In Somaliland and among Somalilanders there was some All groups voiced concern about the future of the Somali emphasis on the shared colonial experience. In other words, language. While the efforts of President Guelleh of Djibouti in those who had been ruled by the same colonial power ‐ such seeking to preserve Somali culture and support Somali as Somalilanders under the British ‐ were thought to be linked scholars were commended, most discussants were pessimistic by a shared experience. Other Somalilanders, however, made about the future of the Somali language. About a third of the a distinction: they saw themselves as ethnically Somali but discussants believed that as long as there are Somalis in the Somalilanders by nationality. Others from Somaliland world, they will maintain the Somali language, while others expressed concern that the name "Somaliland" appeared to be stated that the preservation of the language will be dependent exclusionary. There was though a general view among upon the stability of the country ‐ "all will be solved once the Somalilanders that the colonial inheritance was on balance country is stable." An academic, aged 55, living near positive and something which was likely to be helpful to them Washington, DC, commented however that "the language is in their quest for international recognition. There was a good deteriorating and everyone is leaving. Over two million deal of discussion about this issue in groups held in Somalis are scattered from Australia to Alaska. Children are Somaliland. Some discussants observed that Somaliland had losing our tradition, culture and language. It is a disaster for had – unlike other parts of Somalia where foreigners had come us... .Somalis are a nomadic people who are wild and in by sea – relatively little contact with outsiders and one, untameable. Al‐Shebaab are armed and empowered Suhur, 29, said that many Somalilanders had never heard extremists. They are making a lot of money from the pirates... . people from the south speak until the influx from the south Something must be done, but nothing is in the hands of following the Ethiopian invasion. He also thought Somaliland Somalis." 30% of the respondents in Nairobi and Puntland was more purely Somali because, apart from a few Arabs and agreed with the proposition that teaching in English and Arabic Indians in the port of Berbera, few Somalilanders had had is undermining Somali. contact with non‐Somalis. In Somaliland, Abdikarim, 32, a lawyer, observed, "As a society However, if belonging to a clan was seen as an important we have failed our language by thinking that learning and component of Somali national identity, many respondents communicating in other languages is fashionable. The youth identified "clanism" as a negative influence on Somali society. are now the biggest problem...If you use an unfamiliar word he In London, clanism was blamed "more than anything else" for will call you names asking whether you're from the the current conflict. They saw a future united Somalia countryside." "Every elder that dies is dying with a part of the "without negative clan practices..." "Bad things have language because it is part of our heritage," said Halima, happened that no‐one can ever forget ‐ like killing, raping and unemployed, 40. She noted that plastic is replacing clay and looting. Something that has damaged us all," said Zahra, a wood so that the Somali names for wooden tools and pottery, grandmother living in London. Others in London mentioned as well as those for women's clothes, are dying out. Others in

13 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

Somaliland said that the Somali language is dying, overtaken These views were typical, across the board. In Somaliland, one by English and Arabic, noting that "even ministries in group noted that the peace achieved in Somaliland came from Somaliland prepare their documents in English." Nasra, 52, traditions nurtured by elders in rural settings, but "they have said, "The language has to be given priority if it is to flourish." now moved into the cities and the city corrupts them They have abandoned the culture of compromise and peace‐ d. The Future of Pastoralism making." In Bristol it was noted that the collapse of All the groups, saw the cultural values of Somalis as being a pastoralism has "a negative influence on Somali traditions, product of their nomadic background. At the same time there customs and values toward conflict resolution... and even was a clear awareness, of the huge changes affecting the rural spills over into urban areas." sector of society in all the groups, in particular the pastoralist The collapse of the rural economy was widely regarded as lifestyle which has traditionally underpinned Somali life and having a bad influence on traditional values. One group in customs. Su'ad, a young nurse in Mogadishu, observed, "I London concluded that the traditional way of life was dying as think pastoralism is dying because 60% of the rural people are elders were dying without passing on their knowledge to the now coming to settle in towns.....even the pastoralists are next generation. One discussant in Somaliland said that the changing their customs.....using plastic cans and even covering fact that milk now has to be imported from the Yemen spoke their dwellings with plastic sheets." In several of the focus volumes. The reasons for the collapse were listed as the groups, it was noted that herdsmen now regularly use cell‐ destruction of eco‐systems, over‐grazing, changes in grazing phones, and even travel in jeeps or 4x4's to look after their patterns as people have settled around water‐sources and a camels. Zeynab, an accountant from Mogadishu, recalls that massive increase in charcoal production. Some also blamed her parents used to "tell many tales of pastoralists, listen to the Diaspora: families abroad sent monthly allowances and the pastoralist poets and have good relations with pastoralist pastoralists became financially dependent. "If we all come to relatives...but now all that has gone." Zeeko, a primary the towns, how is life to be sustained?", asked Haydar, 57, a schoolteacher from Mogadishu, summed up the view there professor. when he said, "I believe that pastoralism is dying as a way of life, because pastoralist communities are moving to urban Opinions in Somaliland were strongly expressed. There was virtual consensus that pastoralism was dying because of abuse areas due to recurring droughts and fighting over water and of the environment caused by cutting down trees, for pasture." While a small number of discussants in Somalia felt that pastoralism might survive, the majority of discussants example, for charcoal production, while mass production of were clearly of the view that nomadic life and pastoralism are cattle for export has replaced subsistence methods of production. Exports of cattle on‐the‐hoof, therefore, became dying. While some of the women in groups in London felt that Somali children should be taught more about clan they at the a major export earner for the government but this badly same time felt that nomadism is often romanticised. In reality affected the environment. One group agreed that "money, money, money is the problem as the subsistence‐based mode its relationship with the environment is in crisis. Dangers come from disappearance of nomadic knowledge. "Nomads don't of production is replaced by a purely commercial mode where make use of their surroundings anymore. There are ugly the aim is to export as many heads of cattle as possible." One Somaliland group concluded that pastoralism was dying, killed plastic sheets and plastic containers everywhere...," said Beydan, a grandmother. by climate change, poor management of the rangelands and unregulated use of land. The reasons for the collapse in pastoralism were broadly agreed to include urban pull, drought, climate change, and a Only a small minority of discussants ‐ notably in the lack of coherent policies for the rural sector. A 23, a student, Washington, D.C., area ‐ felt that the pastoralist lifestyle would continue unscathed into the future. Some felt that, were the saw the decline of pastorialism fundamentally linked to the survival of Somali society. "The most important impact of this fighting to come to an end, and the right policies introduced, loss of a way of life will be the loss of knowledge of our the pastoral lifestyle could be saved. In the meantime, many traditions and the essence of our cultural values. The urban Somalis concluded that the collapse of the rural/pastoralist lifestyle was having very negative effects on life in the cities, and rural sectors used to be mutually supportive; they needed and balanced each other. This is no longer the case." adding to the numbers of the unemployed and providing recruits for armed groups, including pirates. Begging was the

14 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 only option for uneducated former rural people who came to Few clear recommendations were put forward to remedy the live in the cities. "Those left in the countryside are those who situation. Many felt that, with a stable government, new weren't able to leave because they don't have anyone in the policies could be introduced to strengthen the rural sector. cities or those who still have some pride, not being prepared Others saw a role for individual Somalis: to protect their way to degrade themselves by coming begging in cities." said Elmi, of life, Somalis must teach children about Somali culture, 40, activist. "If you don't have qualifications or an uncle like history and lifestyle. dahabshiil, asking (shaxaad) is the only option open to the rural person," claimed Dekha, 45, a businesswoman. She said II) Society: Family, the Role of Women and Religion she spoke from experience: she had four uninvited relatives Summary: There was concern that the foreign‐born children staying with her from the countryside, but cannot afford to of Somalis are losing touch with their roots. There also was look after them properly. Jalle, a mechanic in Mogadishu, went great concern that the strength of Somali families ‐ seen as a further. He argued that people from rural areas were fuelling bulwark of Somali social structure ‐ was being undermined by civil war, chaos and unrest in the country because they the experience of emigration and separation. On the other brought into the towns a rural culture based on revenge. Half hand, discussants repeatedly stressed that for them securing of the group agreed with Jalle. In London, one group, asked a good education for their children was a high priority for the whether the Somali state had, in its view, collapsed, future. Many Somalis agreed that women had much to responded that not only the state but also the culture, sense contribute to national political life, and younger women, in of nationhood, livelihood and even the family unit itself were particular, regarded the participation of women in national in a state of collapse. Within Somalia, there was a strong leadership as vitally necessary and overdue. A minority feeling that the collapse of rural life was bringing into the cities (mainly, but not exclusively, men) were strongly of the view groups of people ‐ particularly young men ‐ who fell prey to that women should lead only in the family, when it came to drugs and immoral lifestyles. One focus group in Mogadishu religion. Islam was regarded as a vital part of Somalis' sense concluded that "people moving to towns or cities are a threat of identity. Somalis wanted the country's Islamic nature and to civilisation... with a very bad impact on the well‐being and traditions to be preserved and voiced the wish that their integration of urban societies," while, in another, Zeinab, an families should receive a good religious (i.e., Islamic) educa‐ accountant, warned that health problems, overcrowding and tion. Religious Somalis would like to go abroad, for example, crime would increase. to Saudi Arabia, for religious education. A small minority of discussants expressed the wish for an Islamic government.

15 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 a. Family Life kids are growing up in a culture that puts more value on traditions and not material things; it all comes down to where Among Somalis abroad, there was concern that their children were adopting the lifestyles of their adpopted countries. Some an individual sees he can lead the best life possible." Groups in the United Kingdom said that they would like their children in Nairobi said that they would prefer their children to grow up in Somalia "where they are free and can live a dignified life, to go back to Somalia to see what it means to be Somali: they would prefer their children to grow up in Somalia but realised rather than live as a refugee in a foreign country." Fear of this may not be possible. Some felt that a Muslim Arab country families losing contact with their religion was frequently expressed. Some expressed the wish to have their children would provide the best educational environment for their children. "I would like my children to grow up in the Gulf grow up in Arab countries so they can better learn Arabic and states or any other Arab state. ...Being able to raise my Islam. On the other hand, some felt at home in societies which children in an Islamic environment is very important (Zahra, were not predominantly Muslim. A young man in London said, "I believe the UK is also my country. This country is also student, 23, Somaliland). "I don't think I would be able to handle living abroad on a permanent basis" Hawa, 43, a multicultural and multi‐religious." Others stressed the need to housewife. One discussant in the United States said that she return home for "moral and religious safety" reasons, although others were concerned about the education and health tried to keep her children informed about Somalia, through Aljazeera and Universal TV, but they "have two brains, one provision they would forfeit if they returned to Somalia. A that's Somali and another from the host country. It's an group of Somali women in Bristol said that they prefer life in the UK while there was not peace in Somalia, so their children identity crisis." In Bristol, young Somalis said they would be happy for their children to grow up in the UK, but also thought could grow and develop in "a healthy and peaceful and an Arab country would be best if they are to learn about the progressive society like the UK." They never the less said they would return and would want their children to return when religion. Some of the Bristol Somali youths ‐ a minority among respondents ‐ felt that some Somalis in Somalia are "crazy" there was peace, but that is “elusive." and said that they "definitely don't want to live there." b. The Role of Women

Almost everyone agreed on the importance of education. In general, discussants felt that women should be given more Young people gave priority to education in setting out their responsibility for decision‐making in Somali society. However, plans and hopes for the future. The importance of having even this proposition was not accepted by some individuals. educated people able to help rebuild the country was One group in Bristol (all male) concluded that now was not the repeatedly stressed in the focus groups. In Mogadishu, Mama time for women to take the lead; their place was in the home. Asha, a businesswoman, commented, "If the Somalis were In a furious debate on this issue within the group, one man educated they would have been able to sort themselves out." was challenged to produce evidence for his assertion that for In another Mogadishu group, Halane, a lecturer, spoke of the women to take part in politics was contrary to Islamic youth as Somalia's greatest asset. Others warned, however, teaching. He failed to produce evidence to back up his that the lack of employment opportunities was destroying that argument. Others commented that some Somalis were very youth. In Washington, one group said there was a need to confusing Arab practices with Islamic teachings. In general, "create a connection" between Diaspora Somali youth and while a minority, mainly of men and often religious their country of origin. In London, Fartun, a student, said that traditionalists, strongly opposed the idea of women becoming "our generation is the only group that can rebuild Somalia, involved in decision‐making, and categorically ruled out the especially those that have seen the world and know that there notion of a woman becoming engaged, for example, in politics, is a normal life different from chaos in Somalia." others ‐ perhaps two thirds of respondents ‐ were equally One important reason for those abroad wanting to return fervent in asserting that women were less tribalistic, more home is concern about their children's upbringing and able to compromise and break deadlocks and should have a education. Women in particular voiced similar thoughts to public role. In one group in London some asserted that "things those of Hibo, aged 60, in London: "(if we do not go will continue to be bad" unless women participated in politics. home) .....our children will get lost, they will lose their identity There seemed to be a generational divide over the role of and not know about their heritage." Dekha, 45, a women. Younger women stated that women must now lead businesswoman in Somaliland, said, "I like the fact that my the political process in Somalia. They felt that history and

16 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 culture were on their side, recalling the role of Araweelo, the radicalisation of Somali youth. Ahmaed, a Grandfather living Somali Queen. Some older women, on the other hand, felt it in London noted that "in our mosque our young do not listen was not a woman's role to lead anything except her home. to the Somali sheikhs but listen to English‐speaking sheikhs They felt their religion obliged them to play a fostering, and we do not know what they teach them." nurturing and supportive role in society. Some men took this Abdi, 50, wants "Somalia with one Islam that we understand." position and said now was not the time for women to take leadership roles. They were willing to let women lead by III. The Experience of Emigration: the Diaspora and influencing their sons, husbands, brothers, etc. . All agreed in the Role of the Business Community one way or another that women should be more actively involved in Somali society; 50% of respondents agreeing that Summary: About 14% of Somalis have gone abroad, and Somalia or Somaliland could have a woman president. For the many of those in the Diaspora provide regular financial sup‐ younger ones the issue was equal rights, a concept they had port, in the form of remittances, to their family members living become familiar with, living in a democracy. In one group in in Somalia and Somaliland. There was virtual unanimity of London two women and one man agreed it was time for men support for the proposition that the Diaspora had a crucial "to take a back seat." Several discussants pointed out that role to play both in bringing peace and in rebuilding the coun‐ women were in a majority in places such as Mogadishu, and try. It was accepted that the Somali business community, both were, increasingly, playing an important role in business in in the Diaspora and in Country, was talented and successful, Somalia and Somaliland. and could be of considerable importance when it came to So‐ mali development. At the same time, it was stated in some of c. Religion the groups that to some extent Somali businessmen had bene‐ Ali, a lecturer in Mogadishu, said, "In ten years' time I hope to fitted from the absence of state regulation and control. They be living abroad, perhaps in Saudi Arabia, for its holiness." On paid no taxes, for example. Some claimed that the massive the other hand, there was some concern that traditional sums received in Somalia in remittances from the Diaspora religious teaching was being supplanted by newer, different, were being "invested in destruction" by clan leaders and war‐ approaches. In general the majority agreed that Islam was part lords. This was seen as business indirectly contributing to the of core Somali identity and some noted that religion had lack of a functioning government. become stronger in Somali culture following the onset of the civil war. On the other hand, one woman discussant in London Among those in the Diaspora who took part in this project, as recalled a time "when Somalis did not know much about well as among respondents in Somalia/Somaliland, there was Islam... and yet in those days were more conscientious, more general agreement about the causes of emigration, and the caring, more respectful of each other. Today you see most relative advantages and disadvantages that those in the women with hijabs and most men with big beards and most of Diaspora offer. Most started from the premise that Somalia or them are not caring, respectful or kind, so who was more Somaliland was their homeland, where they would like to live religious?" (or continue to live) when and if security and peace was assured. Both those country, and those who have gone In groups in London when religious issues were discussed, a abroad took roughly the same position; namely, that for minority felt that Al‐Shebaab was positive for Somalia because people to go abroad as long as there was no security at home. they were "non‐foreign." Others took a diametrically opposed Life abroad was often difficult; but those in the Diaspora had position, arguing that they were extremist and murderers, access to better education and health care, especially for the abusing the name of religion and Somalia's dead forefathers. children. There was evidence of a strong wish among the "Abuse of religion for political purposes" was seen as a Diaspora to return once peace had been restored, and, among challenge by one of the focus groups in London. A minority those who have stayed behind, an optimism that those saw Al‐Shabaab as a Somali, non‐foreign (and therefore returning ‐ once there was peace and effective government ‐ desirable) initiative, while others saw it as extremist," killing would bring resources and skills to rebuild the country. These people and abusing the name of religion and Somalia's dead views were often accompanied by fear that Somalis would lose forefathers." their cultural and religious identity if they did not return home. Some Somalis living abroad expressed concern about the

17 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

In Somalia little or no criticism or resentment of those living While the majority view was that it was normal and abroad was noted; indeed, the same hard‐headed appraisal of understandable to move abroad for personal security and care advantages and disadvantages (of joining the Diaspora) was (e.g., in old age) concern about the influence of Western common. Zeynab, an accountant in Mogadishu, said, "I society was also widespread. One Somaliland group believe that if only we get education, health and peace then concluded that they would not like to raise a family abroad, we would be very comfortable in our homeland." More than because (among other things) "women there have too many half the younger people, however, said they would like to go rights." Some linked the issues faced by the Diaspora with the abroad to study, to improve their qualifications. Most said broader problems of society at home. In Somaliland, one that they would prefer their children to grow up in Somalia. respondent stated that "many of us that are even doing well The views of Nasra, a female primary school teacher in here don't really live here. Our hearts are in Europe, or Mogadishu, were typical: "I would like to see my children Canada, or Australia" (Mohamed, 29, journalist). On the other growing up in Somalia, because this is where they can get the hand, according to Elmi, 40, from civil society, when it comes right guidance and counselling and get education, and learn to the Diaspora, “There are more losers than gainers. It's no the Islamic way of life." Also in Mogadishu, Mama Asha accident that many of the Somalilanders in Europe are in commented, "My relatives in the Diaspora have had too many dysfunctional families." problems with their children. I started advising them to bring Even those Somalis and Somalilanders who have acquired new their children back, to avoid the troubles of indiscipline, school citizenships and carry other passports said that they would drop‐out, substance abuse and misleading in western schools." return. One respondent who is a US citizen said he would be The minority view was that of Zeeko:"I want my children to prepared to move back to Somalia "if the nation needs me to grow up abroad...(and to experience) new languages, new be involved in national reconstruction." One Somalilander, a culture, new people, new experiences." In Somaliland, Hibo, Swedish citizen, said, "I'm not prepared to live there anymore. 25, a teacher, said there were more opportunities abroad: Life here offers me a great deal...." In Puntland, one male "People are better able to make something of their lives there participant, visiting from Sweden, said he would return to than here." Somalia with his children "if Somalia can offer me a better future." One female discussant in Nairobi said "some of my

18 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 children were born here and they go to school here. The crisis reconciliation process. Even more consistently were hopes in Somalia continues, certainly I want them to grow up here, that the business‐led Diaspora would find ways to support but if there is peace back home, I would want them to grow up education, health and social services. there". Again, there was a strong, diverse, minority view. Nasra, 52, civil society, from Somaliland said, "I wouldn't mind IV. Governance: Future Peace and Reconstruction if my children grew up abroad. They would be able to have a Summary: Alongside an acute awareness that Somalia had greater understanding of the world, and appreciation which become a failed state, there was a general wish for peace, a would enable them to make something of their lives. They democratic government and "normality." Overall, there was a would also be better educated than they would be if they grew general optimism about the future. Some saw the absence of up here". There was agreement that the Diaspora was a vital a functioning state as an opportunity to start afresh, with a asset. "They have contributed much, they have provided "clean sheet." Others looked upon the experience of resources and know‐how and have instilled in Somalilanders emigration as positive, equipping Somalis with education and the value of education. They make up the largest group in our new skills which could be deployed to reconstruct the country. current government, which says a lot about their role in the Some expressed the view that those fighting would, either development of our country," said Abdi Rahman, 27, through exhaustion or the realisation that they were getting businessman. nowhere, lay down their arms and that peace would, in time, A relatively small number of respondents argued that Somalis prevail. There was also a general view that Somalis had been will not be returning home soon. Much more widespread was responsible for the collapse of their country, and that they the view expressed in Puntland that people would return were the ones who must reconstruct it. A small minority when there was a stable government. In London discussants blamed external forces for Somalia's plight. About half said noted that tough UK immigration laws meant that family that, without an improvement in the economy, political pro‐ reunion was more difficult, which would mean people would gress was unlikely. Discussants in and from Somaliland ex‐ choose to return home. In Somaliland it was said that the pressed strong approval of the political progress made in country should prepare for a mass return by the Diaspora. Somaliland, and saw international recognition (of Somaliland Others agreed that the country was not ready to handle a as a state) as a crucial priority. mass return from overseas. Groups tended to stress the need for unity, and for new And while the importance of the Diaspora, particularly those in political approaches avoiding the traditional emphasis on clan. the business community was acknowledged, several One London group was unanimous in its conclusion that "the discussants noted that the picture at times could be mixed. solution has to come from Somalis calling for unity and taking The import into Somali of time‐expired goods, especially inspiration from their culture and social structures. Unity is the pharmaceuticals, for example, and the manipulation of the basis for overcoming all of the challenges including poverty exchange rates (of both the Somali and Somaliland shilling) and extremism." On the other hand, reviving the old state was were due to unscrupulous Somali businessmen. not recommended. New forms of governance had to be The absence of controls and regulation was noted, and seen as considered. "Somali people need to find other ways of having both negative and positive effects. Where controls and organising their societies that can make them less dependant regulations were in place, some felt that functioning on tribalism, such as professional associations, social groups administrations at regional levels had become overly and regional organisations," suggested Ahmed, student, 23. bureaucratic, an impediment to business expansion. A There was general acceptance that one could not expect businessman in Bristol said that doing business in Somaliland "immediate results in a collapsed state and broken society,” and Puntland was not easy because of the control and and there was a strongly held view that the country's influence exerted by politicians. problems should be "fixed by inside forces." One of the Bristol Conversely, as suggested in Mogadishu there was confidence discussants said, "Peace will return to Somalia only when a that the Diaspora would return to rebuild the country and a Somali‐led‐initiated‐and‐financed peace process was strong view that returning young people would make a big conducted." He argued that the last fourteen peace contribution to rebuilding the country. In that context, there processes were led by the UN and foreigners, and negatively were calls for the business community to finance a influenced and hi‐jacked by Ethiopia and Eritrea and exploited

19 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 financially by Kenya." and investing in human capital. Lack of trust, poverty, conflict, and "religious ideologies that are alien to Somalis", the warrior In Washington, there was some optimism that the "nationhood" of Somalia was still alive: "Somalia is a failed mentality that "existed for centuries but has now gone to a state but as a nation it exists, and is recognised by the different level," prolonged state collapse, predatory businesses that "have become fat on the anarchy and are international community. "In London, Ayaan, a housewife and mother, 40, said, "I want to see a surprise peace in Somalia." difficult to wean off their predation", were mentioned by one She said her aspiration was to see the whole country at peace, group in London as constituting the main challenges the country faced. There was a general view that clanism was so that she could drive herself in her own car from one end of Somalia to the other without difficulty. There was approval for harmful. One London group stated unequivocally that younger discussants who said that Somalis should "implement "institutionalising clan is wrong." the peace they agree on." A minority expressed strong views about the role of Somalia's

For Somalilanders, seeking international recognition is a top neighbours, especially Ethiopia. One of the Washington priority. This would, says Guled, 38, a civil society worker, discussants said, "The arch‐enemy is Ethiopia...and the US, for the way it is handling the war. Anyone who supports them bring much more investment than the country is now getting, because "without recognition we're even cheated of what the wants the destruction, genocide and elimination of Somalia." world has given us, because Somalia gets the lion's share." He added that "the US, UK, UN, AU all help to perpetuate this situation. The US and Ethiopia are the ones who created and One discussant in the United States voiced frequently held views: "We have to deal with clanism, the absence of armed are empowering Al‐Shebaab". Some discussants felt that forces, too many armed civilians, too many restrictions...," but, Somalia's open borders allowed foreign forces easy access to the country. Mukhtar, a student in Mogadishu, voiced similar he added, "the biggest challenge is in the people...Somalis need to listen to each other and forget about tribal views: "One of the biggest challenges our homeland faces is loyalties....Somalia is destroyed big time, but I still have hope foreign intervention.... no‐one understands the Somali problem and no‐one is committed to helping the Somali for it." Another respondent in the United States noted, "Somalia is destroyed, but this provides an opportunity to people." Food'adde, a lecturer in Mogadishu, summed up this rebuild in a way that the nation learns from its past mistakes view: "The greatest challenge is lack of government...this was and sets foundations for a new Somalia." Others in caused by Somalis, themselves, and involved pressure from other countries. All other problems are the symptoms and Washington said, "People have learned a lot in their travels, and something positive may emerge." consequences of the lack of a functioning government." Groups in Nairobi and Puntland identified the key challenges Abdi, 50, seemed to voice a general fear that changes in as "foreign forces" (including Al‐Shebaab), lack of education, Somali culture and attitudes, and in particular the erosion of widespread poverty and the lack of a functioning government, the pastoralist lifestyle, were leading to new political while in Bristol one group singled out the "negative influence phenomena. Halane, a lecturer in Mogadishu, said the of countries like Ethiopia and Kenya who want to keep Somalia problems were lack of government and poverty, and they had in conflict and profit from the misery of our people." A in turn given rise to religious extremism and piracy. Mama pessimistic view was expressed by one group in Bristol, who Asha, in Mogadishu, attributed Somalia's difficulties to said that "Somalis will stay abroad, and there will be no ignorance and illiteracy, a commonly‐held view. Nasra, 52, solution to the country's problems, because neighbouring thinks qat consumption, particularly among young people, is a countries do not want Somalia to return to statehood." major challenge. In Bristol, there was agreement in one group that Somalia was destroyed, not only because there was no Views in Somaliland were notably different. Enormous peace but also because but also because "the economy satisfaction was expressed by Somalilanders about their achievements. In addition, there was pride in Somaliland's (farming and pastoralism) and even the language are destroyed." In Washington, one respondent summed up the leaders, government and in the education system in challenges as internal peace and security, lack of functioning particular. One group expressed particular pride in institutions, lack of education and development, hunger, and Somaliland's achievements in education and religious freedom. For Zahra, 42, student, "The mere fact that I have a corruption. He added that they could all be addressed by a democratic government, establishing functioning institutions, country to call home is something that gives me a great deal of

20 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 gratification." "The fact that Somaliland hasn't caved in after question about Somalis' dreams for the future) is a very twenty years of disregard by the international community" Western question. Everything is preordained and so I would was a source of pride for one male student. Weli said, “Our like to be where Allah has written for me to be. I only hope it is peace is something I'm really proud of", while Ahmad added, pleasant. " Dekha, 45, a Somaliland businesswoman, said she "I'm very satisfied with the role the public has played in the wanted education and a good standard of living but added, affairs of the state." The point was also affirmed by Guled "It's difficult to say, really. This all depends on Allah's will, but when he noted that "we haven't been recognised, but we have a decent life anywhere Allah wills. I love my country, but if it remained steadfast and have not lost sight of what's comes to me living outside the country then I will go and live important. This is something that truly gratifies me." there." In Mogadishu, Abdimajid, a primary schoolteacher,

On the other hand, there is no illusion among Somalilanders said he wanted a family which would be religious and "follow that Somaliland has problems which remain to be tackled. the Islamic way of life", but he also wanted his family to have "full education in every field." Somaliland respondents also Groups singled out nepotism, corruption, clan chauvinism and lack of accountability. Some respondents said there were "too emphasised their wish for prosperity, good health, a decent many bureaucrats and too many systems brought in from education for children and to be married with children. One said she hoped to see something of the world, perhaps outside which are not appropriate for Somaliland." And in London fears were expressed that devolved governances through a period of overseas study. But in several cases might use clanism as a political instrument. This was seen as respondents in Somaliland also said they dreamed that their country would receive international recognition. endangering the process of national reunification. One group spoke of the need for an "inclusive, functioning, just Discussants in Somalia emphasised that, with peace and a government that all Somalis can feel part of." functioning government, they would have no need or wish to

The theme of leadership ‐ or its alleged lack ‐ was raised in go abroad. Some comments showed the strength of the wish many groups. In one London group, all participants agreed for education: "my dream is to raise my children well, give them a good education." "Hope to go abroad to get a proper that there is a "crisis of leadership" in Somalia. "Somalia's problems are being prolonged because the right people are education." One discussant said, "I hope to be here with my not coming forward. Many injustices had been committed by family, them with an education, and life to be much better past Somali governments. We should now look for people who than today." "I just hope to be healthy and I hope to see my beloved country recognised and prosperous", said Nasir, 40, a are nationalist (i.e., who have a national rather than clan perspective) and determined and prepared to look beyond professor in Somaliland. narrow tribal and personal interests", concluded this group. In Mogadishu virtually all discussants said they dreamed of The challenge of leading the country to peace was not peace and good education and social services. Idil, a underestimated. Zahra, a grandmother living in London, said businesswoman, said she dreamed of a functioning that all Somalis had been damaged by what had happened: government able to provide free education and health "things like raping, killing and looting" that no‐one could services. Amina hoped for "enough money to educate and forget. For her, too, the need was for new leaders who could shape the future of my family," while Abdulkadir, a look into the future. businessman, said he wanted to see "a functioning government which can bring back law and order" and, for V. Individuals' Views of the Future himself, "all of the means of life, including clean water, cheap electricity, free primary education and health care, in addition Summary: Discussants were asked to outline their personal to my own home." aspirations, to say how they hoped to be living in ten years' time. While a minority objected to these questions on reli‐ The wish for a better material standard of living was strong in gious grounds, a striking unanimity was evident: Somalis all groups and unanimous in one group in Mogadishu. In a wanted peace and the opportunity to provide adequately for group in Bristol, there was more variation: one wanted peace their families. They repeatedly stressed the importance of and prosperity, and good health, another agreed, adding that good educational provision. he also wanted inner peace; another wanted political involvement in the rebuilding of his homeland; another One respondent, Mohamed, 29, a journalist, said, "This (the wanted a democratic Somalia plus a secure life and a good

21 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011 standard of living for himself; another, a good job, good salary example, to such issues as the durability of the language or the and better involvement in the community. One said he did not Somali way of life and gender, but the differences between the know where he'd be in the future; others thought they would Diaspora were consistent with the differences between those be in the UK for a long time. But the striking feature of this who lived in Somalia and Somaliland. part of the study is the very strong wish among Somalis for Somalis believed that they ‐ those now living abroad as well as education and peace. those at home ‐ could and should resolve the country's 4. Pilot project findings problems themselves. While the will clearly existed for new, Somali‐led efforts, there was a perceived absence of Somali There are three levels of findings that emerged from this pilot leadership and of institutions able to mobilise, lead and survey. The first has to do with specific topics which were coordinate development and reconstruction efforts. discussed in interviews and focus groups, and these are 2. Identity crisis tensions and dimensions. As one looks to encapsulated at the beginning of each of the topic sections. the future, it is evident that there is a range of tensions that The second level focuses on cross‐cutting substantive issues reflected what was described as “identity crises.” Within that arose out of the project’s efforts to engage with a wide Somalia, those who had abandoned rural for urban life were spectrum of Somalis. The third concerns the utility of the pilot perceived to lack a sense of roots or place within the society. study’s approach and methodology to eventually arrive at the Even those who stayed with relatives in towns and cities were four “products” that would then result from the Somali often described as “lost.” For those who lived outside the Futures focus over time (See: page 8). country, the identity crisis for at least Diaspora youth was Substantive findings reflected in the so‐called “two brains” syndrome – one that 1. Consistency of views between the Somali Diaspora and was Somali and the other of the host country. Parents in some indigenous Somalis. There had been an assumption at the instances tried to resolve such tensions by encouraging outset of this pilot survey that there would be a difference children to return to Somalia/ Somaliland to regain their between the views of the Diaspora and those who lived in culture and identity. At the same time there was a number of Somalia, but this proved to be wrong. On the whole, the views first generation Diaspora who dealt with such tensions by just between the two were quite consistent. That is not to say that accepting that they were both, but that their final homes and all were in agreement by any means when it came, for businesses were or would be in Somalia/ Somaliland;

22 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

3. Fundamental changes were inevitable; there was no living abroad were regarded as a possible valuable resource turning back to a Somali past. There was a consistent longing for future development. Many who have not themselves gone for a return to past Somali values and modes of living. At the abroad have nevertheless become more "international" in same time there was a deep tension between those who felt their outlook, that is to say that they appear to see the such a return was plausible and those who felt that there was advantages of what the developed world has to offer, no prospect of a return to some of the most fundamental including education. aspects of what being a Somali was. The former’s voice The "Diaspora" were now perceived as the default financiers appeared more aspirational, while the latter’s reflected of Somalia: remittances, rather than exports of camel‐meat, disillusion with day‐to‐day changes. They noted the plastic sustain the Somali economy. Some Somalis argued that future that not only replaced traditional tools, but that also political efforts to re‐establish a state in Somalia should be run symbolically littered the natural environment, the mass influx by the business community. However, urgent efforts must be into urban areas, the abandonment of the Somali language for undertaken to reduce the dependence of some sections of the English and Arabic and traditional livestock economies Somali community on remittances from overseas, by creating replaced by more sophisticated livestock enterprise. real jobs. The business community inside Somalia would have 4. A robust Somali identity supported by clan culture to be brought within a clear legal framework, including an versus clanism. Though there were deep differences about obligation to pay taxes to the state; Somalia’s fate once the present conflict came to an end, the 6. Nothing is in the hands of the Somalis. There was a concept of clan was seen as a persistent and positive theme general sense that so much of what purports to be Somali is now and in Somalia’s future. This and the implications of no longer in the hands of Somalis. The sorts of changes that abtiris – the Somali tradition of memorising family trees – were identified in focus groups were linked to what might be were seen as core to the very nature of the Somali. There was described as the forces of external actors. There was a a consistent and generally agreed differentiation made perceived general loss of control, and for reasons that might between positive aspects of clan and the negative aspects of be understandable, there was a sense that the fate of Somalis clanism. The latter was associated with clan chauvinism, was in some very fundamental ways slipping out of their including the violent practices that emerged out of clan hands. Whether it be the consequences of “teaching in competition and nepotism. Whether or not it was realistic, English” or that “two million Somalis are scattered from there was a clear link between continuation of clans – not Australia to Alaska,” the aspiration of an irredentist Somalia clanism – and Somalis’ future; and the return to Somali values seemed to confront a deep 5. Adapting to the dynamics of globalisation. In many contradiction that stemmed from a sense that Somalis were ways the victims of globalisation, Somalis also appeared to no longer in charge of their most basic hopes. recognise that they could adapt to it. They point to the fact In a related vein, it was also evident that there was that they have become avid consumers of news, and users of considerable disillusion about what they saw as the extremely electronic data services. They make use of the new media to negative portrayal of Somalia in the international media. receive and exchange news and information. They recognize Based upon these findings, Somalis did not have high that they have in many cases taken advantage of exile to expectations about the international community. There was a acquire education, skills and new perspectives, and they also strong view ‐ not held by all Somalis, however ‐ that the sense that Somalis are often talented at business. They run international community, especially the neighbouring profitable currency exchange businesses relying on countries ‐ had failed to improve Somalia's condition because international electronic data transfers, and have been they did not have Somalia's true interests at heart. successful in import‐export. Methodological issues In that context, it is worth noting that despite the massive challenges which were well recognized, including the 1. Limited scope for determining futures. It has been lamentable state of the countryside, the crises of the cities and suggested that “ordinary citizens often judge progress based the increase in crime such as piracy, there is considerable faith on change in their own lives. Improvements in areas outside that the Somali business community can tackle these their immediate interests (although important in the greater challenges if given the chance. The remittances of Somalis context) are not always viewed as progress by the average

23 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

person.”8 This point flags up a difficult methodological issue in mind, questions were designed to start off with the world found in the research for this study. Such concepts as “future,” that participants knew before exploring the worlds that they “progress” and “improvements” are difficult to separate out would want or that might be. As the results seem to suggest, from participants’ own experiences. And in no small part these participants stayed normally within their “comfort zones,” in turn would seem to relate, in many ways, to immediate focussing primarily upon the present and only incrementally problems and opportunities. The project’s intention to get venturing into the future; individuals and focus group participants to think beyond the 4. The target groups. One of the key objectives of the immediate, to step away from day‐to‐day tribulations was not Somali Futures initiative was to give a voice to those who on the whole successful; normally do not have one about their nation’s future. In reality 2. Clarity and the Chinese whispering game. The concept a combination of security, resources and lack of time meant of “future” is not easy to translate. As noted earlier, it is a that the effort that was needed to identify and engage with concept that is culturally bound in some instances, and very that “silent majority” was never really achievable. This is not often constrained by the prism of the present. It was probably to say that in Somalia the effort was not made, but rather that difficult for the participants to understand what the project the reality was that focus groups were for the most part designers meant by futures. However, having the project’s dependent upon those whom moderators knew directly or concept pass through a series of intermediaries, viz, project indirectly; and, given the insecure situation in much of Somalia designers, project implementers and focus group moderators while this initiative was underway, groups depended upon a – made an appreciation of the project’s purpose and limited range of peoples that were readily available. Hence, in objectives even more difficult. A methodological finding many ways a relatively vocal minority replaced a silent therefore was that the series of intermediaries most likely majority. When it came to the Diaspora, researchers relied on reduced the original intention of the futures research; a relatively well‐established network of interlocutors. The

3. The uneasy balance stemming from the research brief. exception to this seemed to be in the category of youth in the United Kingdom. Overall, however, reliance upon a familiar The project designers recognised that focus groups might need to progress from the present to the future in an incremental network of Diaspora did not seem to detract from the overall way in order to build up to the intended objective. With that objective of the project.

24 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

5. Conclusions and recommendations effective way to provide training in a Somali context; iii. support indigenous efforts to promote and disseminate As a pilot project, the proffered conclusions and Somali art and literature within Somalia and Somaliland, recommendations are tentative. They are but the first attempt seeking the involvement of the Diaspora towards this end. at seeing the extent to which they resonate with the ultimate stakeholders, namely, the Somalis themselves, and also the 2. Promoting international networks. There is a general extent to which they offer ways to improve engaging Somalis sense that the international community does not understand about futures in the future. With this in mind, this section, like the Somalis, or amongst some that the international the previous section, is divided into substantive and community does not have the best interests of Somalis at methodological conclusions and recommendations. The heart. This perception needs to be overcome because it stands former attempts to pose issues and means of addressing them in the way of promoting mutually beneficial opportunities for that have to do with the future of the Somalis; the latter is those states that host Somalis as well as for developing links primarily concerned with improving the methodology to between indigenous Somalis and the international community pursue this and subsequent efforts to understand the ways at large. With this in mind, efforts should be made to develop that peoples see their futures. a more robust network of Somalis and relevant member states that host Somalis. On the whole the Somali Diaspora across Substantive conclusions countries in Europe, Australasia and the Gulf states are 1. Reconciling a seeming paradox. Despite the large relatively well connected. The “missing link” is the member numbers of Somalis who have settled outside Somalia and states that should together be actively engaged as part of that Somaliland, there would appear to be a consistent belief network. amongst the Diaspora as well as indigenous Somalis that Recommendations: Somalis’ futures depend principally upon the Somalis, themselves. In so saying, one must accept a certain paradox, i. those governments of countries with Somali Diaspora and for on the one hand there is a sense that what is Somali is those Diaspora communities, themselves, should develop being eroded in fundamental ways, while on the other hand networks intended to seek ways to promote greater there would appear to be an equally consistent belief amongst understanding about the customs, needs and objectives of Somalis that they can find their own solutions. Reconciling this each. Greater understanding that would stem from such possible paradox is the challenge for all who focus on ways to networks should lead not only to greater harmony within the support a positive future for the Somalis. host nations, but also greater understanding about ways to promote peace and economic growth within Somalia and Recommendations: Somaliland; i. one way to promote Somali solutions for Somali futures is to ii. through the proposed networks promote local commerce recognise what Somalis generally perceive as a formidable and industrial capacities, with focus on employment creation; strength, namely, their business community. With that in mind, supporting and promoting indigenous small and medium‐sized Methodological issues commercial ventures throughout Somalia and Somaliland, with 1. Broadening the concept of futures. Greater clarity particular emphasis on activities that could create employment about the nature of the exercise and more specifically greater in urban areas, is a fundamental way to restore Somali faith in effort to explain what one meant by “futures” and what the themselves and a Somali way forward; purpose of the enquiry was will be needed in subsequent ii. promoting practical linkages between the Diaspora and exercises. With that in mind, greater attention will have to be indigenous Somalis may be a second way to reconcile the given to providing insights into what one means by the future. paradox. These sorts of linkages could take the form, for There is a well‐established methodology on enabling people to example, of promoting training linkages between overseas think more creatively about the future with particular academic and technical institutes that have Diaspora faculty emphases on futures in a cultural context.9 These tools should with businesses and related institutions in Somalia and be used to ensure a more futures‐oriented approach for Somaliland. The use of the Somali Diaspora and the Somali longer‐term strategic analysis: language to transmit skills across continents would be an

25 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

Recommendations: i. culturally sensitive scenario exercises should precede focus group discussions. These scenario exercises would be based upon well‐established culturally sensitive methodologies and would have to be seen as an essential preliminary step before undertaking focus group discussions;

2. Broadening the interview base. As discussed previously, lack of time, insecurity and lack of resources prevented researchers from having the range of interviews that would really have been more reflective of what earlier had been described as the “silent majority.” While such constraints may well persist in the foreseeable future, focus group monitors and interviewers might be able to offset some of these by having a better appreciation about the sorts of individuals who should be involved in the project.

Recommendations: i. greater attention needs to be given to explain to focus group monitors and interviewers the mix that will be required to achieve the objectives of the project; ii. in a related vein, greater efforts have to be made to work with futures group monitors and interviewers to ensure a common understanding about the concept and objectives of the project.

26 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

End notes

1. United Nations Secretary General, In Larger Freedom, 21 March 2005, para 155

2. The authors would like to thank Dr Neil MacDonald who in various ways provided some of the background to cultural determinants affecting perceptions about futures.

3. Robert Heilbroner,Visions Of The Future The Distant Past, Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow The New York Public Library/Oxford University Press, 1995

4. Arjun Appadurai, “Tactical Humanism,” in Jerome Binde, ed, The Future of Values: 21st Century Talks, UNESCO Publishing, Paris, 2004, p.17

5. Ming Dong Gu, Chinese Theories of Fiction State University of New York Press, 2006. Ming argues that Ming Dong Gu that these differences underlie differences between Chinese and Western literature, accounting for the dominant Western literary mode being realism and that of China being fantastic.

6. A.N. Oppenheim, Questionnaire Design, interviewing and attitude measurement, Continuum Books, London, 2005, p.124

7. Riel Miller, “Futures Literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method,” Futures, #39, 2007, p.342

8. Andrea L. Levy, Looking Toward the Future: Citizens’ attitudes about peace, governance and the future in Somalia, National Democratic Institute in International Affairs, Washington DC, 6 December 2010, p.3

9. Sohail Inyatullah (undated) Using the Future to Explore Visions of Globalization (http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/ UsingtheFuturetoExploreVisionsofGlobalization.htm)

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ANNEX I: Research brief ‐recorded by the moderator, purely to assist in the writing of the reports. Focus group participants are to be given an Background assurance that no individual will be named in the report, or subsequently. The tape‐recordings will be treated as This pilot project is being run by the Humanitarian Futures confidential and securely stored. Programme of King's College, London, a British university. Its aim is to meet a wide cross‐section of ordinary Somalis around Composition of Focus Groups the world to ask them what they think about their future and While it is clearly impossible to obtain a perfect scientific that of their families. The aim is to have a better sample of Somalis, every attempt should be made to ensure understanding of what the Somali people would like to that there is fair representation in terms of age, economic achieve. status, gender, and ethnicity in the focus groups. Each group The project is being coordinated by David Stephen, former might therefore comprise: a successful businessperson; heads Representative of the United Nations Secretary‐General for of family (ideally one male and one female), an older person Somalia. and a young person. The groups will be as inclusive as possible, including (for the diaspora) a fair representation of Somali‐ The research is being undertaken in the belief that, while born as well as overseas‐born participants and (in Somalia/ politicians and diplomats have well‐known opinions on Somaliland) those from the clans living in the area. Focus Somalia, those of the Somali people are crucial yet have rarely groups should also be gender‐balanced. Because the aim is to been sought. This project is not connected with governments consult people who are not normally consulted, the views of and has no political agenda. established leaders or spokespersons will not be specifically Approach sought as part of this project. The key tool for the research will be focus group discussions. It Conduct of focus groups is planned to hold about six focus groups of five or six people Focus group sessions, under the moderator, should cover the in about six sites in Somalia, Somaliland, the United Kingdom, four themes in turn. The moderator will take notes on the Kenya, and the United States. Since the project is limited in discussions: the written report should therefore be divided scope, it will not at this stage be possible to cover other into four chapters, also covering each theme in turn. European countries than the UK, or other sites in North America than Baltimore. However, the sample covered by the At the start of each focus group, participants should be told focus groups should total about 2000 Somalis and the findings that this is not a political survey or opinion poll and that the should, therefore, present a broad picture of Somali opinion aim is to hear the views of Somalis ‐ whose voices have rarely world‐wide. If this pilot project produces interesting been heard in the past. conclusions, it is likely that funding will be sought for a further, However, if there is consensus among focus group participants full‐scale, project. that the themes are wrong, or that other issues are more Focus group moderators important, the group should be allowed to say so, (and the discussion should be recorded in the moderator's report.) In each site, focus groups will be invited to a neutral location The moderator will ensure that all members of each group are for a discussion lasting no more than two hours. A Somali‐ given time to contribute to the discussions. The key point is to speaking moderator will convene the focus groups, preside have Somalis speak about themselves and the future they see over the group discussions, and write up the main points. for themselves and their families. Refreshments will be provided. No payment will be made to focus group participants. After explaining to the participants the objectives and nature of the focus group, moderators should write down on a single Focus group sessions will cover four basic themes (see below), piece of paper ‐ as a cover sheet for the written report ‐ some introduced by the moderator. The moderator will ensure that key information about the group. A template is attached to the structure is followed, but prompting in general, and this paper. While it should be made clear that participants will especially direct or loaded questions about politics or religion, not be identified in any report, some participants may give are to be avoided. The language of the focus groups will be their consent to their being quoted using a nickname. If that is Somali, though the reports will be in English. the case, the nickname may be recorded on the cover sheet. In With the consent of the interviewees, discussions may be tape these circumstances, statements made in the groups can be

28 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

quoted in the written report and attibuted by nickname. • Would you be prepared to live abroad or in Otherwise, no names should appear on the cover sheet. Somalia, and for what reasons?

For each focus group held, the aim of the cover sheet is: • Is pastoralism dying as a way of life?

(i) to identify the focus group by the site, location, time • More and more Somalis are now living in towns and date of the session, and; and cities. What impact does this have on the (ii) to record key data about the group members Somali way of life? including age, gender, occupation, residence and Theme 2: SOMALIS' HOMELAND IN THE PRESENT family situation. Please note: • As Somalis, what do you find the most gratifying ‐ Age should be estimated by the moderator and aspects of your homeland? recorded as young (up to 25); middle (25‐40) or older • What do you see as the greatest challenges that (above 40); confront your homeland? ‐ occupation should be general, i.e., pastoralist, urban • How would you address them? trader, businessman. housewife/head of household; • Is Somalia destroyed? ‐ residence means, is the participant Somali‐born or born in the diaspora; Theme 3: SOMALIS' HOMELAND IN THE FUTURE ‐ under "family situation" the moderator should record • Who will re‐build Somalia, and how? whether the person is living with his/her family; • Do you expect Somalis to continue to live in other ‐ Ethnicity (i.e., clan) should not be raised as an issue countries in the future? Why do you say that? by the moderator and clan affiliations should not • Do you think that those abroad now will return to normally be recorded. However, the issue of clan their country? should be reported on if it arises as a topic in the discussions. While moderators will seek to avoid • Why do you say that? issues that are overtly political, political issues will • What do you see as the greatest assets which the inevitably emerge. Again, if that happens, it should homeland of the Somalis will offer in the future? be noted in the report. • Describe your dream of the Somali future. Report • Should women get more involved in Somalia's The essential outcome of each focus group should be a decision‐making processes? If so, how? concise, informative report written by the moderator • Is there more that the business community can setting out the main conclusions of the group and the do? answers to the questions raised. Theme 4: SOMALIS AND THE FUTURE On specific issues, moderators should say what percentage of the focus group participants held certain • What is the future of the Somali way of life? views (e.g., "30% of the group thought the diaspora • What is the future of the Somali language? would one day return.") • What do you most want for yourself and your Themes for discussion family in ten years' time?

Theme 1: SOMALIS TODAY • Where do you expect to be in ten years' time ‐ physically, and in terms of living standards? • Do you keep informed about what is happening in Somalia/Somaliland? If so, how? What are your • (for those not living in Somalia) Are you happy for main sources of information? your children to grow up in a Western society? Are you prepared for the possibility that you may not • What does "being Somali" mean? Language? return home to live? Geographical location? Way of life?

• Where would you like to see your children grow up?

29 Somali Futures Pilot Survey July 2011

ANNEX II: Brief bibliography

Abdulsamed, F., Somali Investment in Kenya, Africa Programme, Royal Institute of International Affairs, March 2011

Conference/Congress of Somali Intellectuals, Hoogga Soomaaliyeed Iyo Hil Aqoonyahan (Somali Catastrophe and Intellectuals’ Succor), Djibouti, 13–20 December 2010

Edelman, Gerard, Bright Air, Brilliant Fire, New York, Basic Books, 1992

Hammond, L., et ald., CaCompassion:sh an The Role of the Somali Diaspora in Relief, Development and Peacebuilding – Report of a Study commissioned by UNDP Somalia, January 2011

Horst, C., Participation of Diaspora in Peacebuilding and Development: A Handbook for Practitioners and Policymakers, Peace Research Institute, Oslo, 2010

Inayatullah, Sohail “Deconstructing and reconstructing the future : Predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies”, Futures. 22 (2), 1990, pp. 115‐141

Istanbul Declaration, The Istanbul Conference on Somalia, 21‐23 May 2010

Kleist, N, “Mobilising the Diaspora: Somali Transnational Political Engagement,” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 34, 2008, pp 307‐323

Le Sage, A., “Somalia’s Endless Transition: Breaking the Deadlock” Strategic Forum #257, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, June 2010

Levy, A.L., Looking towards the future: Citizen attitudes about peace, governance and the future in Somalia, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, Washington, DC, 6 December 2010 Masini, Elenora B., “A vision of futures studies”, Futures. 34(3‐4), 2002, pp. 249‐259

Menkhaus, K, J. Prendergast, and C. Thomas‐Jensen, “Beyond Piracy: Next Steps to Stabilize Somalia” Enough Project, May 2009, .

Miller, R., O’Connell, L., & O’Donnell, R. (2010) “Futures Ireland: A Case Study in Building Futures Literacy”, Robustness: Anticipatory and Adaptive Human Systems, Spring 2010

Wallis, M. and S. Kible, Somaliland: Change and Continuity – Report by international election observers on the June 2010 presidential elections in Somaliland, Progressio, London, May 2011

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If you would like more information about the Humanitarian Futures Programme, please contact our offices on +44 (0)20 7848 2869, and speak to one of our HFP team members. Alternatively contact us at info@humanitarian futures.org, or go to our website at www.humanitraianfutures.org If you would prefer to write to us, please do so via the Senior Programme Coordinator: Humanitarian Futures Programme King’s Policy Institutes (KPI) King’s College London 138‐142 Strand London WC2R 1HH, UK