Vol. XXV ISSN 2073-0926 2011 2 0 1 1 www.ndu.edu.pk NDU Journal Institute for Strategic Studies, Research & Analysis National Defence University, Islamabad Editorial Board Lieutenant General Agha Muhammad Umer Farooq Chairman Major General Ziauddin Najam Member Major General Noel Israel Khokhar Member Major General Javed Iqbal Member Air Vice Marshal Rashid Kamal Member Brigadier Muhammad Khurshid Khan Member Lieutenant Colonel Dr Saif ur Rehman Member Editor-in-Chief Brigadier Muhammad Khurshid Khan Editor Lieutenant Colonel Dr Saif ur Rehman Assistant Editor Mr. Abdul Rauf Iqbal Advisory Board Ambassador N. A. Shaikh Former Foreign Secretary Pakistan Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema Dean Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University Islamabad Lt Gen T.W. Ghazi (Retd) Former Secretary Defence Pakistan Dr. Rodney W. Jones President Policy Architects Int’s USA Dr. Marvin G. Weinbaum Scholar in Residence, Middle East Professor Dr. Bulent Aras Chairman Center for Strategic Research Republic of Turkey, MoFA NDU Journal is sponsored and edited by the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research & Analysis (ISSRA), National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan. Manuscripts and editorial communications may be directed to the editor. Statements, facts and opinions mentioned in NDU Journal are solely of the authors and do not imply the official policy of the Institution, Editors and Publishers. Website: http://www.ndu.edu.pk Email: [email protected] NDU Journal Subscription for one copy Inland Rs. 200/- Overseas US $ 25/- Request for subscription may be addressed to: Editor, NDU Journal National Defence University, Sector E-9, Islamabad, Pakistan Website: http://www.ndu.edu.pk Email: [email protected] ISSN: 2073-0926 Published Annually by National Defence University Islamabad, Pakistan www.ndu.edu.pk NDU JOURNAL 2011 CONTENTS Page No Summaries i Ballistic Missile Defense: Implications for 1 India-Pakistan Strategic Environment Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Emerging 27 Trends & Options for Pakistan Brigadier Muhammad Khurshid Khan The Evolving Nature of Pak-US Relationship 59 Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan Indian Air Force: A Regional Power By 2020 97 Air Commodore Zia ul Haque Shamsi Possibility and Implications of an Israeli 119 Strike on Iranian Nuclear Installations Major Shams uz Zaman Role of Media in Modern Warfare 135 Air Commodore Asadullah Khan Prospects of Pakistan-Cuba Relations 163 Ambassador Najm us Saqib Conceptual Framework of Homeland 187 Security: A Case Study of Pakistan Ms Afifa Kiran SUMMARIES Ballistic Missile Defense: Implications for India- Pakistan Strategic Environment Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Dr Jaspal in this paper dwells on an extremely vital theme, which brings out various dimensions of Indian nuclear doctrine and the implications of Indian jingoistic / grandiose ridden mindset for peace and stability of South Asia. The concept of ‘Ballistic Missile Defense’, aims at Indian psychological and military superiority against its adversaries, particularly Pakistan. It is likely to upset existing nuclear balance of deterrence and is fraught with serious implications, as discussed by the author with convincing arguments. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Emerging Trends & Options for Pakistan Brigadier Muhammad Khurshid Khan The concept of Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) attained maturity in 1996, after a lapse of four decades. The treaty restricted development of high-tech nuclear warheads by the states, possessing highly developed nuclear weapons programs. The author has enlisted the countries that have ratified the treaty and the states those have not even signed it as yet. There is a lukewarm response from US, China and India on the issue. Though Pakistan supported CTBT, nonetheless, declined to sign it, owing to its own security concerns. The author suggests that international community has to perform a serious role for bringing stability in this region, prior to expecting Pakistan and India to sign the treaty. NDU Journal 2011 i The Evolving Nature of Pak-US Relationship Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan Dr Khan in this article touches upon the sensitivities of Pak-US relations, particularly highlighting the irritants and differences over military action in North Waziristan Agency and the so-called safe havens of Haqqani Network. While evaluating the cost benefit analysis, hardly any worthwhile dividend is noticed on part of Pakistan, despite last six decades of bilateral relationship. This asymmetrical alliance has often led to a paradoxical situation for Pakistan. It is imperative for both the countries to reconcile and engage in a positive negotiation process, for evolving better and sincere bonds of relationship, which is essential not only for peace in Afghanistan but also entire South Asia. Indian Air Force: A Regional Power By 2020 Air Commodore Zia ul Haque Shamsi Air Commodore Shamsi in this article ponders upon the impact of modern technology, along with air power, as a prevailing factor in changing the nature of warfare. In pursuance of playing a more dominant role in world affairs, Indian leadership in year 2000, unveiled an ambitious plan envisaging India to be recognized in the comity of developed world by 2020. To materialize the ambitious agenda, IAF would also need the support of a modern aerospace industry coupled with research and development organization to sustain it. Possibility and Implications of an Israeli Strike on Iranian Nuclear Installations Major Shams uz Zaman In the contemporary era, Iranian nuclear program has become highly debatable in diplomatic circles as well as among the nations possessing nuclear capability. A spread ii NDU Journal 2011 wide scepticism exists over Iranian nuclear programme, however, Iran denies various allegations and asserts for its nuclear rights for peaceful purposes. While handling the Iranian nuclear issue, a clear divide is visible among the US and the EU, as the US is willing to use military option, contrary to Europeans quest for a diplomatic solution. Nevertheless, Israeli strike against Iranian nukes can not be ruled out, which will have distressing implications for the region and Pakistan. Role of Media in Modern Warfare Air Commodore Asadullah Khan In this paper, Air Commodore Khan has highlighted the role of media and its impact on the modern warfare. Technology has made the media an active and influential element in armed conflict. The author opines that the media support is crucial to military operations and the Armed Forces must put a deliberate effort to evaluate comprehensive framework for media-military relationship. This article examines potentials, using media as a weapon along with examining some historical trends, addressing current and future issues, and surveying media considerations in current doctrine. Prospects of Pakistan-Cuba Relations Ambassador Najm us Saqib Ever since the Castro’s revolution of 1959, Cuba has been an important country from the view point of geopolitical studies. Ambassador Saqib in this article has carried out an analysis of multiple contours of Pak-Cuba relations. The author during his ambassadorial services at Cuba has identified the ways and means to enhance bilateral relations between the two countries. This article also investigates the reasons for non-exploitation of real potential of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Cuba. NDU Journal 2011 iii Conceptual Framework of Homeland Security: A Case Study of Pakistan Ms. Afifa Kiran Ms. Kiran, in this paper, picks up an interesting topic for analysis delved in to bring forth pertinent policy. The concept of ‘Homeland Security’ is gained significant attention of the intellectuals and scholars all around the globe. The writer undertakes this study in the context of Pakistan and investigates the roles of various law enforcing agencies, weaknesses in their operating mechanisms and measures to bring harmony in existing homeland security apparatus. iv NDU Journal 2011 BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA-PAKISTAN STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Abstract The construct of nuclear balance of deterrence between India and Pakistan has limited the former’s options to coerce the latter in the prevailing conventional-military asymmetry between them. This strategic compromising position of New Delhi has forced it to chalk out a strategy, which could reinstate its militarily advantageous position in the region and also demonstrate its military primacy in the strategic theater of India and Pakistan. New Delhi, therefore, has been endeavoring to develop or acquire new generation of weapon—Ballistic Missile Defense systems. The missile shield is yet to be proven in the battle field. The advancement in technology, however, generates an impression that system would be viable in the near future or at least provide psychological military superiority to its holder. The psychological military superiority and sense of immunity from the ballistic missile strikes of an adversary could create a ‘Fortress India’ mindset. This mindset would not be conducive or at least problematic for the Strategic Stability, Escalation Control, Nuclear CBMs and Peace Process between India and Pakistan. Introduction The nuclear weapons capabilities immensely contributed in India-Pakistan strategic doctrines and military postures. Instead of revolutionalizing warfare between belligerent neighbors, the nuclear weapons have necessitated strategic restraint between them without thwarting sub-conventional conflicts. Indeed, nuclear weapons