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Construction & Property 04 February 2013 | Visit Note Construction & Property Construction: Maintain POSITIVE Second Penang Bridge: Another growth booster for Penang Property : Maintain NEUTRAL We visited Second Penang Bridge to gather information on its progress to date. The briefing was conducted by government-owned Jambatan Kedua Sdn Bhd (JKSB). We were positively surprised that the project is currently ahead of schedule with 90.4% completion. JKSB is targeting to finish the project 2 months earlier on 8th September 2013, instead of the originally scheduled 8th November 2013. The Second Penang Bridge, on which construction began in November 2008, connects Batu Kawan on the mainland and Batu Maung on the island. When completed, the bridge will be the longest bridge in South-East Asia with total length over water of 16.9km. The total construction cost of the bridge is estimated at RM4.5b. The project is funded by China Exim (RM2.2b) and Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (RM2.25b). A little bit of history. In June 2001, a feasibility study report by HSSI & Yachiyo Engineering revealed that there are 3 alternative routes, namely Northern Route, Mid-Channel Route, and Southern Route, which are viable for the Second Penang Bridge project. The Northern route is to link the proposed Penang Outer Ring Road (PORR) at Bagan Jermal on the island with Butterworth Outer Ring Road (BORR) at Bagan Ajam on the mainland. Meanwhile, the Mid- Channel Route is 8.0km (include a 2.9km long undersea tunnel) route that links Georgetown with the Butterworth- Kulim Expressway (BKS). Finally, the Southern Route, which was chosen by the former Prime Minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and on which the bridge is currently constructed, links Bayan Lepas Expressway at Batu Maung on the island with Batu Kawan on mainland and ended at North South Expressway at KM 154. The decision was made with the objective to promote socio-economic growth in the southern region that would provide a balanced development across the Penang State. KINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 04 February 2013 Targeting 20% of existing bridge’s traffic volume. According to JKSB’s Construction Director, the main reason for constructing the new bridge is to ease the heavy traffic volume of the existing bridge by diverting vehicles from the first bridge to the second bridge. Without the second bridge, it is estimated that the traffic volume on the existing bridge may rise by 16% to 163,400 vehicles per day in 2020. Hence in less than 10 years from now, the existing bridge will breach its maximum capacity of 155,000 vehicles per day. Thus it is crucial for the second bridge to be constructed. JKSB estimated that 20% of the existing bridge’s traffic volume will be diverted to the new second bridge. We believe this is achievable judging from the strategic location and efficient network of the second bridge. Efficient network and strategic location. Interestingly, there will be an integrated tolling system for vehicles to pass through the second bridge. JKSB will build 2 toll plazas, with one located at the North South Expressway (NSE) and another one at the Batu Kawan Expressway. This will benefit vehicles coming from the southern region as they can use the NSE’s toll that will be linked to the second bridge instead of using the existing bridge to go to the island. Since the second bridge’s Bukit Maung-end is not very far from the International Penang Airport, this will facilitate economic activity and also promote regional tourism industry. In addition, with the efficient route, the Second Penang Bridge will become a major passage for the movement of goods to Penang ports. Summary of the project’s progress – 10th January 2013 JKSB Physical Progress Package Description Contractor Value Start Target Finish Sch (%) Act (%) Main Navigation Span And CHEC Construction 1 Substructure And Foundation 2,200 8-Nov-08 24-Jul-13 98.00 98.19 (M) Sdn Bhd Works For Approach Spans Superstructure Works of 2 UEM Builders Bhd 1,550 8-Jun-09 8-Sep-13 89.94 90.06 Approach Spans Cergas Murni Sdn 3A Batu Maung Interchange 152.7 19-May-10 29-Jun-13 75.09 77.72 Bhd IJM Construction Sdn 3B Batu Kawan Expressways 349.9 28-Jun-10 8-Sep-13 69.90 74.20 Bhd Batu Kawan Trumpet 3C HRA Teguh Sdn Bhd 67.3 19-May-10 30-Apr-13 69.33 61.61 Interchange Pa’ Wan Teh Sdn 3D Toll Plaza And Related Works 79.8 15-Nov-11 14-Jul-13 25.00 20.05 Bhd TERAS Teknologi 3E Toll Collection System 14.97 1-Jun-12 31-Aug-13 19.49 19.55 Sdn Bhd Traffic Control An Surveillance Itramas Technology 3F 19.8 26-Jun-12 25-Jul-13 16.39 16.67 System Sdn Bhd 3G M&E Works for P3A & 3C TN Synergy Sdn Bhd 13.4 26-Sep-12 30-Jul-13 21.44 23.55 TOTAL 4,447.87 8-Nov-08 8-Sep-13 87.69 90.40 Property developers took opportunity. Once the project is completed, we can expect the spill over effects on property sector within the vicinity of the Second Penang Bridge. We gather that there are few developers expanding their development portfolio nearby the new bridge. For instance, in the island, Mah Sing (TP: RM2.85) is now developing Southbay in Bukit Maung with remaining GDV of RM2.1b. The property project is said to be completed in 3 phases which will involve mixed development such as retail, high-end residential suites, resort bungalows, and 3- storey super link. Meanwhile, on the mainland, we gather that a listed property developer, namely Malton is said to enter into a joint- venture with Bukit Kawan Development Sdn Bhd to develop 300 acres of land in Batu Kawan with an estimated GDV of RM3.8b. The development will comprise a mix of commercial and residential developments, and is expected to be carried out and completed in phases over 10 years from the date of land title’s issuance. 2 MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 04 February 2013 Comparison between Second and Existing Penang Bridge As for construction sector, we reiterate our POSITIVE view. The well-progressed Second Penang Bridge project is one of the evidences that execution may not be an issue in the construction sector. This means that the government is really committed in speeding up the construction activities of big-ticket projects as announced in the 10MP and ETP. Another example is the MRT1 line, which is now already in active construction phase. The immediate concern for the construction sector is the outcome of the impending 13th General election, which will be called anytime soon. Nonetheless, we believe investors have largely priced in the risk premium into the construction stocks as the KL Construction Index is currently trading at a steep 35% discount to its 5-year average PER. We expect the valuation of construction stocks to revert to its mean once the election is done as the sector’s fundamentals remain solid. We continue to advocate investors to accumulate quality stocks such as Gamuda and WCT as we believe these stocks are less vulnerable to political risks, given their strong delivery track record and strong financials. We have BUY calls on all of our construction stocks with Gamuda (TP: RM4.71) as our top pick. Meanwhile, we are maintaining our NEUTRAL view on property sector. The Second Penang Bridge will accelerate the developments on Batu Kawan and Batu Maung areas which are presently under developed. Apart from that, places further inland in Penang Island like Sungai Ara, Teluk Kumbar, and Gertak Sanggul will be more attractive for developers due to the better connectivity. SP Setia (TP:RM3.96) and E&O (RM1.96) own land in Sungai Ara and Gertak Sanggul respectively. In mainland Penang, property development activities in Batu Kawan, Sungai Bakap and Nibong Tebal will be accelerated. These areas are quiet and not attractive to developers and buyers prior to the construction of the Second Penang Bridge. Some of existing land owners in the areas include Asas Dunia Berhad, Tambun Indah, as well as Penang Development Corporation. We believe the Second Penang Bridge will not only promote the growth of under developed areas in Penang, but the state will also benefit from better traffic conditions in the future. Iqbal Zainal | Sean Liong [email protected] [email protected] 03-2772 1668 3 MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 04 February 2013 Package 1: Main Navigation Span and Substructure and Foundation Works of Approach Span Package 2: Superstructure Works of Approach Span Package 3A: Batu Maung Interchange Package 3B: Batu Kawan Expressway (IJM Corp) Package 3C: Batu Kawan Trumpet Interchange 4 MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 04 February 2013 MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK : GUIDE TO RECOMMENDATIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY Total return is expected to be >15% over the next 12 months. Stock price is expected to rise by >15% within 3-months after a Trading Buy rating has been TRADING BUY assigned due to positive newsflow. NEUTRAL Total return is expected to be between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months. SELL Negative total return is expected, by -15% or more, over the next 12 months. Stock price is expected to fall by >15% within 3-months after a Trading Sell rating has been TRADING SELL assigned due to negative newsflow. SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS POSITIVE The sector is expected to outperform the overall market over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL The sector is to perform in line with the overall market over the next 12 months.
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