lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
Council of the European Union General Secretariat
THINK TANK REVIEW NOVEMBER 2020 Council Library ISSUE 83
This Think Tank Review* covers articles and reports published in October relating to different political and policy topics (twitter link).
Covid-19 reports analyse the various methods and policies the EU is using to finance and promote economic recovery, explaining: that the recovery fund will lead the way out of the crisis and will set the course shaping European integration, with the European Parliament being more closely involved in the deployment of the fund; recovery spending is a high-stakes challenge and could be derailed by fuzzy objectives or overloaded procedures; if grants and loans in the next generation fund are well targeted, growth and confidence could be boosted in the future; the impact of the ECB's monetary policies in stopping the pandemic from infecting European sovereign debt markets; a possible Europeanisation of health policy and the newly proposed EU4Health programme, as well as the role of teleworking in bolstering economic activity; and that the EU is increasingly caught in international crossfire as Covid-19 intensifies global economic competition, in particular the rivalry between the US and China.
EU INSTITUTIONS AND POLICY AREAS
Jean-Claude Juncker shares his views on different issues, for instance how we can create an "affectio societatis", a feeling of belonging to this Union; if Europe should assert itself more on the world stage; how the member states can move forward on the sensitive issue of European defence; and if it is preferable to seek consensus at all costs.
Thomas Wieser writes about the role for the European Semester in the recovery plan, noting that questions on governance and implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility are becoming increasingly important as the RRF is the main component of the EUR 750 bn “Next Generation EU”, and adding that it is obvious that the full reform and recovery impact of the programmes and the funds can only be achieved against the background of high quality and precise national plans that have a broad political backing in the respective member state.
Also, on Economic and Financial Affairs, papers analyse the role of asset purchase programmes in the ECB’s toolkit and the potential associated risks; ask if the relaxation of capital and liquidity buffers has worked in practice; study the distributive effects of the monetary policy measures recently applied by the ECB; and raise the issue of whether the euro deserves a greater international role, justified by the size of the European economy and the importance of its international trade and financial markets.
On Justice and Home Affairs, publications discuss the ways in which data can currently be requested, disclosed and exchanged and the challenge of data exploitation in the commercial and political context through microtargeting; assess the enforcement of the OECD anti-bribery Convention; and explore how to cement European divisions with regard to migration.
* This collection of abstracts and links was compiled by the Council Library of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for information purposes only. The content links are the sole responsibility of their authors. Publications linked from this review do not represent the positions, policies or opinions of the Council of the EU or the European Council.
On Foreign Affairs, reports advance bold ideas to reimagine the Alliance after the 2020 US election; wonder how to turn the tide to rescue transatlantic cooperation; and reflect on the related choices and strategies for 2021 and beyond. Papers examine how the rivalries between the USA and China structure many areas, in particular that of the exchange of sensitive technologies, which is a crucial issue for European companies. Reports comment on China's ambitions to hit peak greenhouse gas emissions before 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060, and on the fact that China’s carbon neutrality goal spells competition for the EU in the market for low-carbon technology.
The TTR can be downloaded from Council's Library blog. TTR articles are available via Eureka, the resource discovery service of the Council Libraries.
The Council Library is open to staff of the EU institutions and Permanent Representations of the member states. The general public may use the Library for research purposes. It is located in the Justus Lipsius building, at JL 02 GH, Rue de la Loi 175, 1048 Brussels. Contact: [email protected]
TABLE OF CONTENTS SPECIAL FOCUS 4 COVID-19 5
SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS 11 SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES 12 Agriculture and Fisheries 12 Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, Research and Space) 12 Economic and Financial Affairs 13 Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs 16 Environmental Issues 16 General Affairs 18 Justice and Home Affairs 18 Transport / Telecommunications / Energy 19
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS 22 Foreign and Security Policy / Defence 22 Development 25 Trade 26 Africa 26 Asia-Oceania 27 Eastern Partnership 27 Middle East / North Africa (MENA) 28 Western Balkans 28 China 29 Russia 30 Turkey 30 United Kingdom / Brexit 30 United States of America 31
SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES 32 Czechia 32 Germany 32 Ireland 32 Greece 33 Spain 33 France 33 Italy 34 Hungary 34 Finland 34
SPECIAL FOCUS
4/34
SPECIAL FOCUS
decision role in the EU’s crisis policy instruments. (8 p.)
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Pandemia 2020. Świat do góry nogami
by Adriana Łukaszewicz
The rapid spread of the virus has become a catalyst for new political, economic and social processes. The low efficacy of counter-measures only enhances the ongoing changes. The report presents five COVID-19 key global challenges in the times of pandemics and suggests a few approaches EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE / KONRAD- for possible solutions. (PL - 25 p.) ADENAUER-STIFTUNG / IFOK ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ High hopes, low expectations - Brussels’ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC perspective on the future of Europe after FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN Covid-19 POLICY)
This report presents the results of a study Η Ευρωπαϊκή αλληλεγγύη στην εποχή του undertaken between July and August 2020 Covid-19 including a survey and personal interviews with high-level Brussels-based stakeholders. by Lorenzo Cicchi, Philipp Genschel, Anton Hemerijck et al. The survey and interviews focused on three thematic blocks: the impact of the Covid-19 The July European Council reached an crisis on the EU; the Brussels community’s historic agreement on the €750 billion expectations for the German Council recovery fund. This analysis is based on a Presidency; and the Brussels-based European survey conducted in 13 European stakeholders’ views on the perspectives and countries and the UK. The survey results content of the Conference on the future of demonstrate that support in European Europe. (18 p.) solidarity varies by geographical distance, by issue, and by the perceived net-benefit to the own country. Support is also motivated by STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK mutual benefit expectations rather than moral obligation or common identity. (EL - The European Parliament’s involvement in 10 p.) the EU response to the corona pandemic. A spectator in times of crisis WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM / MERCER by Nicolai von Ondarza @NvOndarza Resetting the future of work agenda: The author argues the EU recovery fund will disruption and renewal in a post-Covid set the course that will shape European world integration. Nevertheless, despite its budgetary rights, the European Parliament The report is intended as a call to action for (EP) has remained an onlooker for most of companies and organizations globally to these decisions. In order to strengthen update and reset their future of work democratic legitimacy and the European preparedness agendas for a more relevant perspective, the EP should be more closely and inclusive post-pandemic “new” future of involved in the EU recovery fund in the short work. It brings together key insights and term, and in the long term be given a co- lessons from the Covid-19 crisis response of the World Economic Forum’s broader
5/34
SPECIAL FOCUS industry community to imagine and set out an “more European” tasks which the Union updated future of work company action should focus on. (7 p.) agenda for a post-Covid world. (31 p.) CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT STUDIES
Support for business during the Who will really benefit from the Next coronavirus crisis Generation EU funds? by Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow and Grant Dalton by Cinzia Alcidi @AlcidiCinzia, Daniel Gros @DanielGrosCEPS and Francesco Corti This report summarises how national and @f_corti1992 subnational governments in nine advanced economies have so far supported Southern and central-eastern European businesses during the crisis through grants, countries will be the biggest beneficiaries of tax cuts and tax deferrals, loans and equity financial support under the new EU recovery stakes. (39 p.) and resilience facility and react-EU, as well as of the new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Two main risks might INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT reduce the economic impact of these (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC instruments, however: the traditionally slow INSTITUTE absorption rate of European structural Vertrauen in Mitmenschen lohnt sich investment funds and limits to the capacity of Ursachen und Konsequenzen von national governments to channel very large Vertrauen auf der Individualebene amounts of public investment. (7 p.) by Dominik H. Enste @DominikEnste, Lena Suling and KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG Inga Schwarz Resilience and stability? Setting the course Generalized trust in other people is for the banking and financial system during especially important in times of crisis. If there the corona virus pandemic is a lack of trust, more control and sanctions are necessary, which result in transaction by Bodo Herzog costs. As various studies show, higher interpersonal trust ensures, among other The stability of the financial system and things, for more cooperation, more access to financial markets was not at risk prosperity, more life satisfaction, and better during the pandemic. Through joint efforts health. (DE - 20 p.) and better bank capitalisation, the financial system is now more resilient than during the financial crisis. Provided that grants and BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG / loans in the “next generation EU” fund are FINANZWISSENSCHAFTLICHES well targeted for structural reforms and FORSCHUNGSINSTITUT AN DER investments in the future, this should boost UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN confidence and growth. (12 p.) The rocky road to providing public goods in the European Union BRUEGEL by Katharina Gnath @K_gnath, Michael Thöne and European Union recovery funds: strings Thomas Wieser attached, but not tied up in knots
This paper takes stock of the reflection group by Jean Pisani-Ferry @pisaniferry conclusions on European public goods, and looks beyond to the implications of the EU's Ensuring effective recovery spending is a first steps at fiscal integration in response to high-stakes challenge for the EU, with the the Covid-19 economic downturn. The potential for derailment because of fuzzy reflection group zoomed in on the concept of objectives and overloaded procedures. The European public goods as a framework for brief suggests the EU should work with strengthening the EU by identifying the
6/34
SPECIAL FOCUS member states (MS) to identify limited CLINGENDAEL - NETHERLANDS policies that will maximise the impact of EU INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL investment, while accounting for spillovers. RELATIONS (10 p.) Europeanising health policy in times of coronationalism CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET D'INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES by Louise Van Schaik @LouiseVanSchaik and Remco van de Pas @Rvandepas Covid-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: when did the ECB stop the contagion? The Covid-19 crisis has prompted the EU to by Aymeric Ortmans and Fabien Tripier rethink its health policy, or rather those of its policies that influence the health policies of This paper examines how the announcement MS. Much is still unclear, however, about of ECB’s monetary policies has stopped the how a revised EU health policy should look, contagion of the Covid-19 pandemic in the particularly as this has traditionally been a European sovereign debt markets. It shows field where EU citizens saw little added value that up to March 9, the occurence of new in the EU becoming involved. The brief looks cases in euro area countries has a sizeable into a newly proposed EU4Health and persistent effect on 10-years sovereign programme and reviews the EU’s current bond spreads regarding several MS. (55 p.) engagement in the field of health. (7 p.)
E3G TERRA NOVA
Fire sale: managing the geopolitics of Vaccination policy by zones climate-related financial risk in the age of Covid by Miquel Oliu-Barton @OliuBarton and Bary Pradelski @BaryPradelski by Taylor Dimsdale, Claire Healy and Dileimy Orozco @dile_o Vaccination deployment should be dependent on the prevalence of the virus in At the annual meetings of the World Bank a zone (i.e. a predefined geographical area). and IMF, ministers are discussing how much Red zones should focus on vaccinating debt relief they can offer developing and people at risk and health workers to reduce middle-income countries as they grapple fatalities and keep hospitals operational. with the economic and financial fallout of the Green zones should focus on vaccinating Covid-19 pandemic. This report argues that inter-zone travellers and highly central the risk climate change poses to the stability individuals to reduce the risk of re- of the global financial system threatens to importation. The efficacy of this policy relies spill over into international affairs and on travel restrictions between red and green increase geopolitical tensions, if not zones. (14 p.) managed. (44 p.) STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) Dashboard for a new economy towards a new compass for the post-Covid recovery Upholding the World Health Organization. Next steps for the EU This report outlines a general framework for macroeconomic targets beyond GDP growth by Susan Bergner @bergner_susan, Remco van de Pas – a dashboard for a new economy – to serve @Rvandepas, Louise van Schaik as a guide for the post-Covid-19 economic @LouiseVanSchaik et al. recovery and as a starting point for further debate and convergence of targets and The authors note the pandemic discloses the approaches among governments and discrepancy between the EU advocating for economic policy-makers globally. (22 p.) global access to a Covid-19 vaccine while at the same time safeguarding its own access to it. Its refusal to alter patent laws that serve
7/34
SPECIAL FOCUS to protect the commercial and innovation HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL interests of pharmaceutical companies FOUNDATION) based in EU countries can equally be questioned on grounds of global solidarity. A Die Europäische Union in der Corona- revamped global health strategy is needed to Weltwirtschaftskrise. Perspektiven und overcome such issues and make the EU a Handlungsoptionen im geoökonomischen reliable and capable partner on global health Wettbewerb zwischen den USA und China that gives WHO a central role. (8 p.) The European Union in the corona world economic crisis perspectives and options in INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS the geo-economic competition between the ESTRATÉGICOS US and China
El teletrabajo en la era Covid by Josef Braml @Josef_Braml by Joaquín Fournier Guimbao The EU is increasingly caught in international The author explores the role of teleworking crossfire. The Covid-19 pandemic intensifies as one of the main reasons why many global economic competition, in particular the companies and public institutions were able hostile rivalry between the US and China. In to keep their economic activity during the this conflict, neutrality is no longer an option for spring lockdown caused by the SARS-CoV- Brussels because it shares the partnership of 2 coronavirus pandemic. (ES - 15 p.) values of the Western world with Washington. Furthermore, numerous EU MS, as well as the US, are members of the North Atlantic Pact. EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE (DE -76 p./ EN - 76 p.) An overview of the 2020-2021 country- specific recommendations (CSRs) in the FONDATION SUISSE POUR LA social field. The impact of Covid-19 RECHERCHE EN SCIENCES SOCIALES (FORS) by Silvia Rainone First results of the Swiss household panel – In 2020, the CSRs presented by the Covid-19 Commission have shifted in favour of strengthening workers' digital skills and by Jan-Erik Refle, Marieke Voorpostel, Florence Lebert providing adequate social protection. This et al. publication provides an overview of the CSRs in the field of employment and social This paper presents the main findings of a policies in the MS. (109 p.) Covid-19 survey, conducted between May and June, with respect to a wide variety of domains: the occurrence of Covid-19 MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE infections in people’s networks, changes with respect to work, finances, time use, family Will international migration governance life, following education from home, health survive the Covid-19 pandemic? and wellbeing, worries, social networks and by Kathleen Newland social cohesion, and the evaluation of the political measures taken by the federal The toolbox of international migration government. (51 p.) governance has few instruments for dealing with the migration-related challenges posed ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI by the Covid-19 pandemic. Most international agreements on migration are Struggling Iraq faces another crisis in designed to aid people on the move and to Covid-19 assist states in dealing with this movement, voluntary or forced. The most recent addition by Sajad Jiyad @SajadJiyad to the migration governance toolbox offers states useful guidance in their work to restart According to this report, Iraq is facing several international migration safely. (21 p.) overlapping crises, spanning the economic, political, security and social spheres, as
8/34
SPECIAL FOCUS authorities struggle to maintain stability in the OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH face of political dysfunction and external (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) challenges posed by US-Iran tensions. (7 p.) Rosja w globalnym wyścigu szczepionek
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI by Jadwiga Rogoża and Iwona Wiśniewska
War and Covid-19 in Yemen Russia has already registered two vaccines against Covid-19 despite the controversy by Afrah Nasser @Afrahnasser and the scepticism of medical experts and Russian population. The vaccines' After Yemen’s 2011 uprising broke out, the registration has been for Moscow an country went through a series of political important tool of foreign policy and Russian upheavals and cycles of violence that tore "soft power" as well as the reflection of its the country apart, including the start of a full- ambition to defeat Western countries in this scale civil war in 2014 and the Saudi and race. The marketing of the vaccine has also UAE-led intervention in 2015. (6 p.) the considerable financial significance. (PL - 6 p.) UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY AFFAIRS) RESEARCH
Tracing intersections of Covid-19: gender, Research at risk: mitigating the impact of water and armed conflicts Covid-19 on health R&D investment by Alexandra Said, Panchali Saikia and Martina Klimes by Chris Thomas @cthomashealth and Shreya Nanda This paper highlights the gendered @shreyagnanda consequences of disease outbreaks in The UK government has recognised that fragile and conflict-affected states globally science is integral to delivering a more and explores how armed non-state actors prosperous and healthy nation. This brief are responding to Covid-19 in the Middle addressee that R&D is essential because it East and North Africa region. (14 p.) is the key to driving innovation which allows to create more with the same investment of GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL time and money. It is this improvement in STUDIES productivity that improves living standards, transforms public services and creates real Socio-economic impact of Covid-19 in wage growth (23 p.) Kosovo by Marije Luitjens Tol RAND EUROPE
Prior to the official announcement of the first Covid-19 and the experiences of case of Covid-19 in Kosovo, the government populations at greater risk already declared measures to close schools, or ban public gatherings. The government by Katherine Grace Carman, Anita Chandra, Delia Bugliari et al. was hailed for taking these quick actions to counter the spread of Covid-19 putting the This report describes the first of four surveys situation under control. This paper analyses conducted as part of the Covid-19 and the the early measures taken by the government experiences of populations at greater risk. of Kosovo concerning the Covid-19 as well The questions focused inter alia on as its socio-economic consequences. (14 p.) experiences related to the pandemic, how respondents’ views and priorities regarding health actions and investments are changing, and how general values about such issues as freedom and racism may be related to pandemic views and response expectations. (63 p.)
9/34
SPECIAL FOCUS
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS uncertainties and “scarring effects”. In any case, the crisis has induced a technology Improving pandemic preparedness push. (13 p.) by Thomas J. Bollyky and Stewart M. Patrick @StewartMPatrick TERRA NOVA
This report seeks to distill lessons from the Coronavirus : regards sur une crise. Covid painful experience that must be Convaincre tout le monde plutôt que applied so that the US and the world are contraindre certains; un choix politique better prepared for future waves of this tacite qu’il est temps de questionner pandemic or a next one. It frames pandemic disease as a stark threat to global and by Mélanie Heard national security that neither the US nor the The logic of confinement between March and world can afford to ignore again. It argues May was striking by its radical novelty in that future pandemic threats are inevitable public health. The restrictions of movement and possibly imminent; policymakers should weighed on the whole population, prepare for them and identify what has gone universally. The unequal distribution of risk in wrong in the US and multilateral response. the population was not taken into account, (158 p.) even though it is the basic framework for public health action. There is no public health INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS manual, no pandemic preparedness plan, INTERNATIONALES that talks about a general restriction of freedom of movement for an entire La politique économique allemande face à country. This report seeks to share thoughts, la crise du Covid-19. Comment l’Allemagne stories and questions raised by the Covid-19 soutient son économie pandemic and its multiple consequences. (FR - 18 p.) by Sandra Parthie @SandraParthie
Compared to other European countries, DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR Germany has effectively managed the AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN Covid-19 crisis. Its health system has met the COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) challenge of the fight against the pandemic, the impact on employees has been mitigated Die Pandemie treibt Spaltung an. Macron thanks to partial unemployment benefits, antwortet mit neuen Prioritäten business aid was significant and quickly available and the state structures have made by Julie Hamann @jul_hamann proof of positive responsiveness. (FR - 28 p.) The paper notes that Covid-19 has forced President Emmanuel Macron to realign his INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT political program and to respond to deep (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC divisions which became stronger by the INSTITUTE health crisis. France is threatening to be more preoccupied with itself in the next few Covid-19 and the growth potential years. This can also put a strain on the cooperation with Germany, especially if by Michael Grömling Macron’s European political ambitions The lasting economic impact of the Covid-19 conflict with the growing doubts of his pandemic will become apparent in the compatriots about the successes of development of the macroeconomic factors globalization. (DE - 9 p.) of production – labour, capital, human capital as well as the stock of technical knowledge. Changes in behaviour such as a greater acceptance of technology can strengthen potential output permanently. By contrast, negative effects may arise from growing protectionist attitudes or long-lasting
10/34
SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Crisis presidency: how Portuguese leadership can guide the EU into the post- Covid era
by Lívia Franco and Susi Dennison @sd270
This brief discusses Portugal’s plans for the EU presidency in the first half of 2021 and analyses how current thinking across the EU should guide the Portuguese presidency SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS following the onset of the Covid-19 crisis. It AND INSTITUTIONS draws on surveys of policymakers, interviews and public opinion poll, arguing FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN that Lisbon will need to adapt the priorities it originally envisaged to the new reality that Exclusive interview with Jean-Claude confronts European voters. (15 p.) Juncker: "Europe is a world power and unaware of it" by Isabelle Marchais @IMarchais
Jean-Claude Juncker expresses his views on several questions inter alia: how we can create an "affectio societatis", a feeling of belonging to this Union; if Europe should assert itself more on the world stage; how the member states can move forward on the sensitive issue of European defence; and if it is preferable to seek consensus at all costs. (6 p.)
INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
From fragile continent to vital Union by Alexander Conway @Conway_ALX
This brief examines the major issues Commission President von der Leyen outlined in her inaugural State of the Union address to the EP on 16 September 2020. It also analyses the options arising from her speech and their potential implications for the EU and for Ireland. (11 p.)
11/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
between the EU, industry and the European standardisation organisations to strengthen the system. (20 p.)
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
The future of tech startups in Central & Eastern Europe
by Zuzana Pisoň
The pandemic is expected to have a significant impact on deals in the ecosystem and flows of US capital into European tech companies. This paper zooms into the CEE SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES region, asking what are the most promising opportunities for tech entrepreneurs arising AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES from the current market situation? What should be the current priorities of the EU and KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG national governments in supporting tech startups to help them thrive? (8 p.) Landwirtschaft in der EU: Wie viel Klima- und Umweltschutz verträgt die Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik (GAP)? EKONOMSKI INSTITUT, ZAGREB (INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS, ZAGREB) by André Algermißen Theoretical concepts of consumer The negotiations on the EU's MFF 2021- resilience to online privacy violation 2027 are in full swing, and the design of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is also by Jelena Budak, Edo Rajh, Sunčana Slijepčević et al. being scrutinized. Agreement on this large item within the EU budget is likely within the This work aims to elaborate the theoretical next few weeks. However, the reformed CAP concepts that might be applied in the will not start in 2021, as planned, but research of consumer resilience to online probably only in 2023. This analysis goes privacy violation, a new and unexplored into the lines of conflict. (DE - 8 p.) aspect of consumer behaviour in the digital environment. It contributes to the privacy resilience debate and lays the groundwork COMPETITIVENESS (INTERNAL for developing a conceptual model of online MARKET, INDUSTRY, consumer resilience that would explore how individual behaviour is affected after online RESEARCH AND SPACE) privacy violation occurrence. (49 p.) EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE MAX-PLANCK-INSTITUT FÜR Europe as a global standard-setter: the GESELLSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (MAX strategic importance of European PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF standardisation SOCIETIES) by Johan Bjerkem @johanbjerkem and Malcolm The political economy of industrial policy in Harbour the European Union
EU standards are a pillar of the European by Fabio Bulfone @FabioBulfone single market and fundamental to reach the objectives set through the European Green The great recession renewed calls for a Deal, digital strategy and new industrial return of state activism in support of the strategy. The adoption of EU standards has European economy. This paper shows how been in decline since 2018. The paper state intervention never ceased to be a recommends a new trusted partnership crucial engine of growth across the EU. It
12/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
argues that the decline of the Fordist wage- FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN led production regime marked a turning point PROGRESSIVE STUDIES in the political economy of industrial policy with the transition from inward-looking to Inequalities in the European Semester open-market forms of state intervention. by Lorenza Antonucci @SocialLore and Francesco Corti (31 p.) @f_corti1992
In the last decade, the economic architecture ECONOMIC AND of the EU has faced major challenges and FINANCIAL AFFAIRS had to adapt fast to provide sound responses and remedies to several crises that undercut EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK the income and the security of many Europeans. This paper addresses this and What role for the European Semester in the analyses the European Semester process, recovery plan? that after its creation became the pivotal tool for economic coordination in Europe and, in by Thomas Wieser essence, it epitomizes the way to steer an The author looks at the implications arising economic doctrine across the EU, from the Commission and the Council to national from the focus of the recovery and resilience governments and budgets. (58 p.) plans (RRPs) in the context of the European Semester. He suggests that there are risks to the implementation of the RRPs, and/or to KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG an objective evaluation of their progress. While the Treaty specifies that the execution Is the European Semester waking from its of economic policy coordination shall be long slumber? A call for increased done by the MS within the Council, the convergence and competitiveness involvement of the EP would potentially by Oliver Morwinsky increase transparency and accountability for national policy makers (as well as the According to the paper, the coronavirus crisis Commission and Council), which could and its economic repercussions have further improve project delivery and thus benefit the undermined economic harmonisation within recovery. (28 p.) the EU and revealed its inadequacies. Using the European Semester to distribute the majority of the funds from the next generation EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK EU package is sensible but still in need of What role for the European Semester in the some clarification. Conditionality will be recovery plan? necessary here, coupled with the greater involvement of the EP. (10 p.) by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
The paper argues that the political imperative LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL to ensure that the economic stimulus from ECONOMY the EU’s new commonly funded facilities is Theory, evidence, and risks of the ECB’s provided expeditiously will prevail against asset purchase programme desires to create a robust governance framework for these funds within the by Pierpaolo Benigno, Paolo Canofari, Giovanni Di European Semester process. Moreover, the Bartolomeo et al. pandemic-related suspension of the Stability In response to the Covid-19 crisis, the ECB and Growth Pact creates a need to reform it has relaunched a massive asset purchase and to incorporate more of the Semester’s programme within its combined-arms agenda. (32 p.) monetary strategy. This paper presents and discusses the theory and the evidence of the central bank’s asset purchases, mainly in the euro area. It analyses the role of asset purchase programmes in the ECB’s toolkit
13/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
and the potential associated risks, focusing LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL specifically on the problems of the ECONOMY programmes’ unwinding. (37 p.) Sovereign debt management in the euro area as a common action problem EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK by Stefano Micossi Has the relaxation of capital and liquidity buffers worked in practice? This brief focuses on sovereign debt management in the euro area following the by Alexandra Matyunina and Steven Ongena large increase in those debts due to the The authors explore the recent policy pandemic crisis; it reaches two main conclusions: sovereign debt externalities decisions made by the ECB and the national remain important in the euro area even in the authorities related to capital, liquidity, and new environment of permanently lowered shareholders’ remuneration aimed at interest rates; these externalities justify promoting credit supply from the banking common euro area policies to deal with sector to the coronavirus-afflicted economy. excessive sovereign debt accumulation and (29 p.) the attendant risks to the euro area’s financial stability. (19 p.) SVENSKA INSTITUTET FÖR EUROPAPOLITISKA STUDIER (SWEDISH LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY ECONOMY STUDIES) An international role for the euro? Är återhämtningsplanen början på överstatlig finanspolitik i EU? by Stefano Micossi by Harry Flam According to this paper, one proposition that commands universal agreement is that the In the wake of the pandemic, the EU euro deserves a greater international role, proposes that Union spending be financed justified by the size of the European through joint borrowing. The plan does not economy and the importance of its involve a full-fledged supranational fiscal international trade and financial markets. But policy, but may in the long run reduce nothing of the sort has been happening: after opposition to more supranationalism, claims twenty years of existence, the euro’s use as the author. (SE -7 p.) an international currency is more or less comparable, in its various dimensions of FUNDACIÓN ALTERNATIVAS currency use, to the combined role of the French franc and Deutsche mark before the Un análisis integral de los efectos euro’s inception. (11 p.) distributivos de la política monetaria no convencional en la Eurozona DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR by Juan Francisco Albert Moreno, Nerea Mª Gómez WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN Fernández and Mehdi el Herradi INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
This paper studies the distributive effects of Better off without the euro? A structural the monetary policies measures recently VAR assessment of European monetary applied by the ECB. The authors also policy propose some ideas to orientate this policies in the near future to recover its effectiveness by Jan Philipp Fritsche and Patrick Christian Harms in a context of extreme uncertainties. (ES - Modern optimum currency area theory has 70 p.) developed different conclusions on when forming a currency union is beneficial. The authors put forward a pragmatic question in this context: did delegating monetary policy
14/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
to the ECB increase stress in the individual financial corporations for the period from euro area countries? A structural value at risk 1995 to 2019. The publication comprises 45 (VAR) analysis reveals that monetary stress countries including the EU MS, UK, EU has declined more in the euro area than in candidate and EFTA countries as well as the the euro areas’ doppelganger. The synthetic US, Canada, Japan, Australia, Russia, doppelganger is composed of other OECD Mexico and Saudi Arabia. (11 p.) countries. (59 p.) ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ BRUEGEL ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN New life for an old framework: redesigning POLICY) the European Union’s expenditure and golden fiscal rules In advocation of a European Minister of Economy and Finance by Zsolt Darvas @ZsoltDarvas and Julia Anderson @juliaVanderson by Spyros Blavoukos and Dimitra Tsigkou
This paper focuses on two aspects of the EU The idea of creating a European Minister of fiscal framework: whether an expenditure Economy and Finance is not new as it can be rule would be more reliable than a structural traced at least back to 2011 when the budget balance rule and the possible eurozone crisis started to deepen. This brief benefits and drawbacks of introducing a argues that this is an opportune time to golden rule to exclude certain types of reconsider the establishment of a High investment from the operational fiscal rule. Representative for Economy and Finance, (48 p.) initially for the eurozone. (7 p.)
BRUEGEL ELINKEINOELÄMÄN TUTKIMUSLAITOS (RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH The economic growth and income ECONOMY) distribution implications of public spending and tax decisions Markkinataloudesta ratkaisu ilmastonmuutokseen by Zsolt Darvas @ZsoltDarvas by Aki Kangasharju @AkiKangasharju, Sami Pakarinen EU countries can reduce inequality of @SaPakarinen and Mikko Spolander opportunity through public spending and tax @MikkoSpolander decisions. According to the author, the most effective approach includes progressive The Covid-19 crisis shows that ending taxes and inheritance taxes, spending on economic growth is not a viable response to education, health and public infrastructure, the climate challenge, though it temporally and better government effectiveness. Better reduces emissions. This report suggests that fiscal rules and institutions also increase rather than abandoning the free markets, we resilience against crises. (16 p.) should improve its prerequisites of operation, make sustainable consumption decisions, and speed up technological progress and EUROPEAN CREDIT RESEARCH productivity growth. (FI - 14 p.) INSTITUTE /CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Key findings from the ECRI statistical package 2020 by Roberto Musmeci, Nagesh Kommuri and Xinyi Li
The European Credit Research Institute statistical package 2020 provides data on outstanding credit granted by monetary- financial institutions to households and non-
15/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM RELATIONS The future of jobs report 2020 Defending Europe's economic sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion The future of jobs report maps the jobs and skills of the future, tracking the pace of by Jonathan Hackenbroich @j_hackenbroich, Janka change. It aims to shed light on the Oertel @oertel_janka,, Philipp Sandner et al. pandemic-related disruptions in 2020, contextualized within a longer history of The EU and its MS are biggest advocates economic cycles and the expected outlook and beneficiaries of a rules-based, open for technology adoption, jobs and skills in the economic order. However, there is a real next five years. (163 p.) danger that Europeans will be squeezed in the middle of the Sino-American competition. These papers present several tools which ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES the EU might adopt to combat the economic coercion from great powers and to protect EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK and enhance European sovereignty in the European climate pact pre-legislative. geo-economic sphere. (50 p.) Synthesis of national, regional and local positions on the European Commission's MAX-PLANCK-INSTITUT FÜR initiative GESELLSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF by Claudio Collovà, Vera Vikolainen, Elise Habib et al. SOCIETIES) This briefing summarises the state of affairs Rival views of economic competition in the European climate pact field, examines how existing policy is working on the ground, by Timur Ergen and Sebastian Kohl and identifies best practices and ideas for the future on the part of governmental This article serves as a mapping groundwork organisations at all levels of European for reviving the systematic ethical debate on system of multi-level governance. (12 p.) economic competition. The author's map of rival views lends itself to use as a structuring tool in empirical research on the moral INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS economy and ideational embeddedness of INTERNATIONALES capitalist societies, markets and firms. (29 p.) The renovation wave: a make or break for the European Green Deal EMPLOYMENT / SOCIAL POLICY / by Thibaud Voïta HEALTH AND CONSUMER AFFAIRS Energy efficiency is a pillar of the European Green Deal and it is undoubtedly one of the EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK biggest challenges. This paper argues that the renovation of buildings in European EU4Health programme countries is insufficiently advanced and most buildings are inefficient, to the point that the by Nicole Scholz targets set for 2030 are not expected to be This brief analyses the EU4Health achieved. (46 p.) programme, part of the next generation EU recovery instrument, which is intended to boost the EU's preparedness for major cross-border health threats and improve health systems resilience across Europe. (9 p.)
16/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG CENTRE CO2 -Grenzausgleich: Steuer oder Zoll für Building EU green bonds that deserve their das Klima? Optionen für die EU name by Jan Cernicky and Armin Hartlieb by Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg and Sebastian Mack @SebastianMack_ The EU is planning to introduce a CO2 border adjustment mechanism. But how According to this brief, the EU should issue should one design a CO2 border adjustment parts of the recovery instrument debt as mechanism? This report presents three green bonds and thereby boost that possibilities and discusses the respective burgeoning market. This will depend on the advantages and disadvantages of these criteria for climate-friendly spending in the instruments. (DE - 8 p.) legal texts governing the recovery instrument. If these are not strengthened, FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH the Commission should scale back its EBERT FOUNDATION) ambition and should only issue green bonds for measures that fully match the criteria set Climate action. Socially. Just : a manual of out in the EU taxonomy regulation. (4 p.) arguments for a fair and ecological society
by Sonja Schirmbeck, Victoria Stoiciu, Ivana Vuchkova et ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI al.
Green Deal Watch The key message of this paper is that by changing our way of life, making it more by Luca Franza @Lufranza, Margherita Bianchi compatible with our environment, we can @marghebianchi and Lorenzo Colantoni prevent those dramatic changes for the worse, those consequences of a This publication aims at monitoring and deteriorating climate that will affect each and analysing the initiatives launched by the every one of us. As our reaction to the Covid- Commission and discussed by the EU 19 pandemic illustrates, we are able to adjust institutions and MS under the umbrella of the and change our way of life, making it more Green Deal. (32 p.) sustainable, as well as our efforts to tackle NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES the climate crisis. (77 p.) DELORS ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE European green transparency: lessons from WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR France and further room improvement EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH) by Jean-François Pons and Camille Le Ho Short-term impacts of carbon offsetting on @Camille_LeHo emissions trading schemes: empirical insights from the EU experience Using an example from France via article 173 of the energy transition for green growth act, by Claire Gavard and Djamel Kirat this paper demonstrates how the non- financial reporting directive is currently The Paris agreement established a new insufficient to achieve the environmental mechanism by which a country can offset objectives set by the EU. It proposes some of its emissions reductions in other concrete recommendations for better countries. This study analyses the short-term involvement of financial and non-financial impacts of these credits on the standard companies in the energy transition. (11 p.) carbon markets, using the EU experience with accepting credits for compliance in the second phase of its scheme. It also analyses the structural relationship between the prices of allowances and credits. (37 p.)
17/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
GENERAL AFFAIRS suspending the accession process with Turkey. Such a step is needed to send a NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES clear signal to all candidate countries that DELORS discarding the spirit of European integration has clear consequences. (4 p.) Rule of law conditionality: what could an acceptable compromise look like? THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE by Eulalia Rubio @eulaliarubio UNITED STATES
According to this paper, the rule of law Civil society in Central Europe: threats and conditionality is one of the thorniest issues in ways forward the negotiations of the EU’s €1.8 trillion by Nataliya Novakova budget and coronavirus recovery package. When the EU leaders accepted in July the According to the author, the sustainability of principle of tying the EU funds to the respect NGOs in Central Europe has been negatively of the rule of law, the compromise was affected by a number of factors in recent written in ambiguous terms to have all 27 years. One is the decrease of funding and governments on board. (5 p.) the overly complex rules for access to the majority of the available streams. Another possibly more impactful challenge is the rise SVENSKA INSTITUTET FÖR of populist governments that question EUROPAPOLITISKA STUDIER (SWEDISH democratic pluralism and persecute NGOs INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY whose opinions do not correspond with the STUDIES) views of mainstream politicians. (19 p.) Protecting the rule of law in EU member states and candidate countries JUSTICE AND HOME AFFAIRS by Marko Kmezić @markokmezic and Florian Bieber ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ @fbieber ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC The rule of law is defined in the Treaty on FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN European Union (TEU) as a shared value on POLICY) which the Union is rooted. Despite already Protecting data, ruling over the algorithm: advanced EU policies to promote the rule of law, the regulation challenge for the European within as well as beyond EU borders, not only Union EU aspirants but also several EU MS are currently confronted with grave threats to the by George Pagoulatos @gpagoulatos and Vasiliki Poula functioning of the rule of law. This text highlights @VasilikiPoula a double challenge to the EU’s role in ensuring the rule of law within the Union and promoting it This brief explores the persistent challenge in future MS. (16 p.) of the exploitation of data in the commercial and political context through microtargeting. CLINGENDAEL - NETHERLANDS It draws the attention to the limits of INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL regulation in an era of constantly evolving RELATIONS technology: finding ways to live with The EU enlargement package. Can one bad technological evolution should also be an EU apple spoil the whole barrel? priority. (10 p.) by Nienke van Heukelingen @nvanheukelingen and Wouter Zweers @Wouter_Zweers
Turkey is a candidate country that, since 2016, has structurally moved away from the democratisation reforms expected by the EU. The article argues that if the EU wants to remain credible, it should start by formally
18/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC EBERT FOUNDATION) INSTITUTE Cementing European divisions: mapping of An economic analysis: open data and data European attitudes towards migration sharing by Vera Messing and Bence Ságvári by Alevtina Krotova, Armin Mertens and Marc Scheufen The report asks whether the more positive This analysis shows that government data is attitudes towards immigrants, recorded in a public good, while company data can be 2016/17, were ad hoc responses to an seen as a club or private good. The authors unexpected and singular event (or series of find that promoting legal certainty and the events) during the summer and autumn economic impact present important policy 2015, or part of a longer term trend. Another steps for fostering data sharing. (31 p.) question is whether the previously recorded East - West divide in the attitude map of CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY Europe remains valid also if we include a wider selection of countries from Eastern STUDIES / QMUL TASK FORCE Europe. (15 p.) Cross-border data access in criminal proceedings and the future of digital justice: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK navigating the current legal framework and exploring ways forward within the EU and Reforming asylum and migration across the Atlantic management: a shift towards greater solidarity? by Sergio Carrera, Marco Stefan and Valsamis Mitsilegas by Anja Radjenovic This report examines the ways in which data can currently be requested, disclosed and This paper examines the new asylum and exchanged, under the EU legally binding migration management proposal submitted criminal justice, privacy and human-rights by the Commission. It finds that, while the standards, and in cooperation with third proposal 'essentially preserves' the current countries. It also looks at initiatives promoted criteria for determining responsibility, it would by third countries and at the international also make changes and additions to the level to establish various forms of cross- current regulation, especially on solidarity border public-private cooperation, before and responsibility-sharing for asylum- examining the e-evidence proposals seekers among MS. (8 p.) currently discussed at the EU level. (99 p.) TRANSPORT / TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS / Exporting corruption. Progress report 2020: ENERGY assessing enforcement of the OECD anti- bribery Convention INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES by Gillian Dell, Guilherme France, Jane Ellis et al. Le pari de la mobilité routière propre en The report rates the performance of 47 Europe: état des lieux, stratégies et leading global exporters, including 43 perspectives post Covid-19 countries that are signatories to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and by Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, Carole Mathieu and Eloïse Couffon Development (OECD) anti-bribery Convention, in cracking down on bribery of If the 2010s allowed the establishment of foreign public officials by companies milestones for the decarbonisation of the operating abroad. The report shows how well electricity sector in the EU, the 2020s are – or poorly – countries are following the rules. those of the accelerated decarbonisation of (189 p.) the road transport sector. This report affirms
19/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
that the transition to clean road mobility Greece, Portugal, and Switzerland) to the 12 causes or accompanies major societal, already analysed in its previous edition. It technological and geo-economic upheavals. provides a broader picture of the automated (FR - 68 p.) decision-making (ADM) scenario in Europe. (297 p.) CLINGENDAEL - NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR RELATIONS INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY
Europe’s digital decade? Navigating the Open RAN: the technology, its politics and global battle for digital supremacy Europe’s response by Brigitte Dekker @BrigitteDekker_ and Maaike Okano- by Hosuk Lee-Makiyama @leemakiyama and Florian Heijmans @MaaikeOh Forsthuber
Ursula von der Leyen set a clear goal for the This brief explores the implications of Open EU by saying that "Europe must now lead the RAN concept and its technical and political way on digital". This report aims to contribute developments in the mobile network to a sustainable approach to the digital field, industry. Open RAN is not necessarily a new as well as improved European policy- technology in itself, but represents a making, by discussing best practices of combination of existing technologies, e.g. digital powers in Asia and the US and virtualisation, AI, commercial off-the-shelf offering clues for a EU policy agenda. (45 p.) parts and open interfaces. The question is whether Europe should try to sustain one common global umbrella of standards – or PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE see the world balkanise into national or The third wave: how 5G will drive job regional standards from 6G and onward. (16 growth over the next fifteen years p.) by Michael Mandel @MichaelMandel and Elliott Long WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM @elliott_h_long Cyber information sharing: building According to this paper, 5G, because of its collective security low latency and high throughput, won’t just be an evolution in technology, but a Cybersecurity is one of the most systemically revolution. It will open the door to incredible important issues facing the world today. innovation in both the private sector and the Information sharing is critical for empowering government – including augmented and the global ecosystem to move from individual virtual reality, precision agriculture, smart to collective cyber resilience. (26 p.) ports, transportation and logistics, autonomous vehicles, connected INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT construction and so much more. (47 p.) Policy making in a digital world: how data BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG/ ALGORITHM and new technologies can help government WATCH make better policy
Automating society report 2020 by Lewis Lloyd @lewisalloyd by Fabio Chiusi @fabiochiusi, Sarah Fischer, Nicolas This report offers an overview of recent Kayser-Bril @nicolaskb et al. (eds) technological developments and where the main opportunities lie, highlighting the key The report shows that even though challenges that need to be addressed and algorithmic systems are increasingly being setting out how government might do so. used by public administration and private (52 p.) companies, there is still a lack of transparency, oversight and competence. It contains four more countries (Estonia,
20/34
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY Joint policy proposal to accelerate the Economic costs of ex ante regulations deployment of sustainable aviation fuels in Europe: A clean skies for tomorrow by Badri Narayanan and Hosuk Lee-Makiyama @leemakiyama This industry-backed policy package provides a clearly defined strategy to scaling sustainable The study highlights the economic impacts of aviation fuels in Europe, focused on measures shifting from ex post to ex ante in the online that collectively increase both supply and services sector as stipulated by the demand signals for creating a balanced market. proposals for the digital services act. It (25 p.) estimates a loss of about 85 billion EUR in GDP and 101 billion EUR in lost consumer welfare, due to a reduction in productivity, after accounting for other control variables. (16 p.)
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Więcej Unii, mniej Rosji. Transformacja zasad przesyłu gazu w Europie Środkowej i Południowo-Wschodniej by Agata Łoskot-Strachota @agata_loskot
The brief explores the current situation regarding the transformation of gas supply rules in the Central and South-Eastern Europe, noting that with the expiry of several long-term contracts with Russia, it is possible to regulate the transit pursuant to EU legislation and network codes to a greater extent. As a result, transparency, competitiveness and access to the EU infrastructure are on the rise. (PL - 9 p.)
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Offshore wind energy in Europe by Alex Benjamin Wilson
This briefing analyses the current situation in Europe of the offshore wind, a highly promising renewable energy source that could make a major contribution to global and European efforts to decarbonise the economy by 2050, and the EU´s position towards a common strategy. (12 p.)
21/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
and interests. The primary objective is to encourage the leadership in Russia and Belarus to cooperate and to discourage further attacks on democracy and human rights. (DE - 10 p.)
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
EU strategic autonomy: a reality check for Europe’s global agenda
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN by Niklas Helwig @NHelwig AFFAIRS This paper analyses the current debate on EU strategic autonomy among European FOREIGN AND SECURITY policymakers and think-tankers and evaluates it against the backdrop of the EU’s POLICY / DEFENCE progress as a global actor in recent years. To bring more clarity to the debate, the paper ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH distinguishes between a conventional and a INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) global perspective on strategic autonomy. EU peace mediation in the 2020s: from (13 p.) intervention to investment FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE by Tyyne Karjalainen @TyyneKarjalain STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
The EU is renewing its concept on Europe, Germany and defence: priorities and strengthening EU mediation and dialogue challenges of the German EU presidency capacities after more than a decade. The and the way ahead for European defence. An new concept is being launched at a time ambitious agenda meets Covid-19 when international peace mediation is at risk of lagging behind in the face of accelerating by Claudia Major @ClaudMajor and Christian Mölling power politics. This paper suggests that the @Ce_Moll EU has special abilities to build on in peace As the Covid crisis unfolded, most European mediation, including exceptional resources states recognized the necessity of managing for capacity-building and mediation support. it together. For instance, with the adoption of (16 p.) the €750bn recovery plan, the EU seems to benefit from a new dynamism. According to DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR the authors, the spillover of this dynamic into AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN security and defence policy seems to be COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) limited. A common understanding among Europeans is the precondition for joint Europäische Ostpolitik mit Augenmaß European action. This is exactly where a key Warum derzeit personengebundene project of the German presidency comes in: Sanktionen gegen Russland und Belarus the strategic compass aims to forge a besser sind als ein Strategiewechsel; European strategic culture. (15 p.) warum derzeit gezielte personengebundene Sanktionen gegen Russland und Belarus besser sind als ein Strategiewechsel by Rolf Nikel @NikelRolf
The poisoning of the Russian opposition Alexei Navalny and the massive electoral fraud in Belarus require a common European response that combines European values
22/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG / CLINGENDAEL - NETHERLANDS EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Fostering Europe's strategic autonomy. Security and defence policy: time to deliver Coming out and breaking out. The US, Iran and Europe go nuclear by Giovanni Grevi and Paul Ivan @paul2ivan by Erwin van Veen @ErwinVeen In an increasingly competitive and uncertain international context, Europe's strategic In the short span of five years, the joint autonomy becomes more necessary. The comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA) has paper proposes various approaches to gone from a diplomatic triumph to a driver of advance towards this goal and highlights the polarisation and conflict. Although today the initiative launched by EU defence ministers JCPOA is on lifeline support, it is not too late in June 2020 to develop a 'strategic for the EU to introduce some common sense compass' to guide EU efforts in security and in order to defuse tensions and lower any defence. A broad vision, including trade and perceived need for military action on the part investment policies, single market, of Iran. The report proposes some measures technology and innovation, is needed. (20 p.) in this regard. (38 p.)
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE Unpacking the conflict in the Eastern Third country participation in EU defence Mediterranean integration initiatives: how it works and how it is viewed by EU member states by Nathalie Tocci @NathalieTocci by Kinga Brudzińska @KingaBrudzinska, Marcin This paper addresses old conflicts in the Zaborowski and Alena Kudzko @AlenaKudzko Eastern Mediterranean. One only needs to remember the 1996 crisis over the islets of This paper provides an overview of current Imia/Kardak, the 1974 Turkish military modes of participation of third countries in intervention/occupation of Northern Cyprus, EU defence integration initiatives, outlines or the 1963 constitutional breakdown of the advantages and disadvantages of such bi-zonal and bi-communal Republic of inclusion, and maps out the attitudes of Cyprus. These salient conflicts have different countries towards the participation alternated between open hostility and partial of third countries. (15 p.) reconciliation since Greek independence in 1830. (4 p.) INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE EUROPEAN POLICY) STRATÉGIQUE (FRS) Identifying the EU’s weaknesses in foreign 50ème anniversaire du TNP: évolutions et and defence policy: the struggle to become perspectives a more effective global actor by Emmanuelle Maitre and Bruno Tertrais by Adrian Blazquez @BrunoTertrais This paper deals with the Common Foreign The nuclear non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Security Policy (CFSP). More precisely, has structured international security for 50 it focuses on the aspects of unanimous and years. The Treaty has solidified a non- qualified majority voting, international proliferation norm that has become security commitments, and common indisputable among the vast majority of its strategic culture of the EU. (9 p.) 190 State Parties. Thanks to its normative power and its force of constraint, it has succeeded in permanently limiting the number of nuclear powers fifty years after its adoption. (FR - 40 p.)
23/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
RAND EUROPE HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE At the vanguard: European contributions to NATO’s future combat airpower No going back? A transatlantic cooperation agenda under Biden by Anika Binnendijk, Gene Germanovich @geneDC, Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock et al. by Edward Knudsen @ted_knudsen
Combat airpower constitutes an important Will US President-elected Joe Biden restore line of effort in bolstering NATO’s deterrence the pre-Trump era of transatlantic relations? and defence. This report assesses the This is neither feasible nor desirable, as the evolving capability and readiness of author argues. Instead of focusing on European air forces to contribute to a high- traditional forms of cooperation like intensity theatre conflict and identify specific liberalising trade and bolstering defence, the issues that allied forces could address to US and EU should work together to tackle position themselves as central contributors inequality and corruption, address the to NATO’s deterrent posture at the vanguard climate emergency, and defuse geopolitical of any foreseeable combat air campaign. tensions. (5 p.) (222 p.) THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL UNITED STATES / BUNDESKANZLER HELMUT SCHMIDT STIFTUNG Twenty bold ideas to reimagine the Alliance after the 2020 US election Together or alone? Choices and strategies by Christopher Skaluba (ed.) for transatlantic relations for 2021 and beyond. More than two decades after NATO’s inspired decision to invite former adversaries In 2021, the US and the nations of Europe to join its ranks, the Alliance is in need of will face challenges that threaten their way of equally captivating ideas. These essays are life: a catastrophic pandemic, a deep intended to push the Alliance to think boldly economic recession, accelerating climate and creatively in the service of recapturing change, a rising China, growing the public’s imagination. (111 p.) technological competition, and emerging security threats. This report recommends concrete policy initiatives the US and Europe ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI can take together to manage our pressing NATO’s future: Euro-Atlantic alliance in a shared problems. (40 p.) peacetime war by Alessandro Marrone @Alessandro__Ma and Karolina THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE Muti @KarolinaMuti UNITED STATES / CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY Looking at 2030, NATO evolution will depend on two main variables. First, whether the Charting a transatlantic course to address international security environment will lean China towards a scenario of “aggressive multipolarity”. In this scenario, global and by Julie Smith @Julie_C_Smith , Andrea Kendall-Taylor @AKendallTaylor , Carisa Nietsche @CarisaNietsche regional powers are engaged in various et al. forms of proxy wars, cyber-attacks, information warfare. Second, NATO’s future The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) will depend on domestic politics of the assertive actions have increased concerns in Alliance’s major members, being the US both the US and Europe. There is now fertile future approach to multilateral alliances a ground for transatlantic cooperation on determining factor. (22 p.) everything from reducing dependency on Chinese trade and investment to setting global norms and standards for the future. It
24/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS is based on the premise that the time is ripe substitutes for achieving national and global for greater transatlantic cooperation on security objectives, both impose economic China. (48 p.) costs. According to the authors, sanctions amount to a loss in GDP of about 34 billion USD in 2020 for the sanctioning NATO EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR countries collectively, but the costs of SECURITY STUDIES sanctions are very unevenly distributed. Turning the tide: how to rescue (14 p.) transatlantic relations NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES by Simona R. Soare (ed.) @Simona_Soare DELORS
According to this paper, structural factors, Abolition of the death penalty: a European political rhetoric and hostile foreign influence exception to be promoted are causes of pushing the two sides of the Atlantic even further apart. A sustained by Benjamin Couteau effort to rescue the transatlantic partnership is needed, in light of the new Commission Seventeen years on from the creation on the taking office, the US elections in November death penalty world day, its aim is still highly 2020, the disruptive impact of Brexit, and topical, as fifty-six states still have this upcoming elections in key European penalty built into their legislations. This paper countries, including in France and Germany. analyses the eradication of the death (247 p.) penalty, but also the reality in those where is still legal, specifying that 657 executions were recorded in 2019 worldwide (with the INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU exception of China), 90% of which took place EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR in the Middle East (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq EUROPEAN POLICY) and Egypt). (4 p.) The post pandemic future of the transatlantic relations – time to rebuild or DEVELOPMENT repair? INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE by Danielle Piatkiewicz @dpiatkiewicz and Miroslava DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL Pisklová @m_pisklova RELATIONS (IDDRI)
This analysis examines the US and EU’s Accélérer l'alignement des banques diverging approaches to global issues, publiques de développement avec l'Agenda challenges and external challengers, such as 2030 pour le développement durable Russia and China. It examines also the future of transatlantic security under the Scaling up public development banks’ framework of NATO’s 2030 reflection transformative alignment with the 2030 process and how the new security landscape Agenda for Sustainable Development will look like post-Covid, especially as external threats mount and impact the by Maria Alejandra Riaño @Ma_RianoR, Jihane Central and Eastern European front. (9 p.) Boutaybi, Damien Barchiche @DamienBarchiche et al.
This study assesses how public INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL development banks (PDBs) have interpreted (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD and include sustainable development ECONOMY) priorities in their processes and The economic costs of war by other means operations. Governments, shareholders and other stakeholders should also by Sonali Chowdhry, Gabriel Felbermayr contribute to this alignment effort by @GFelbermayr, Julian Hinz @julianhinz et al. strengthening political support and support for PBDEs. (FR - 48 p./EN - 79 p.) Military interventions and economic sanctions are increasingly seen as strategic
25/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
TRADE OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATIONS
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY The modern agreement of amity and STUDIES commerce: toward a new model for trade agreements EU trade and investment policy since the Treaty of Lisbon: achievements and future by Beth Baltzan priorities Around the world, the process of economic by Guillaume Van der Loo and Michael Hahn globalization is under fire for serving the needs of corporate elites rather than ordinary This paper analyses the most salient citizens. The author proposes a new developments in the EU’s trade and paradigm for a more equitable trading regime investment policy since the entry into force of -outlining the key elements of an agreement the Treaty of Lisbon. It examines how the EU with the overarching purpose of fostering institutions applied their newly conferred positive relations between like-minded competences within a new institutional set- parties. (20 p.) up in order to address the various internal and external challenges facing EU trade policy. (29 p.) AFRICA INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR INTERNATIONALES AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) Les technologies numériques: nouvel horizon des réseaux électriques centralisés EU trade policy reform: levelling the playing en Afrique subsaharienne? field in a new geo-economic environment by Hugo le Picard by Claudia Schmucker and Stormy-Annika Mildner This paper argues that the challenge of Today, trade policy is used more and more developing centralized electricity systems is often to achieve geopolitical goals. The a priority for the economic and social authors suggest that in order to defend development of sub-Saharan Africa. While European interests in this new geo-economic the sub-Saharan population is expected to environment, the EU must recalibrate its nearly double in thirty years according to the unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral trade UN, to reach 2.1 billion inhabitants in 2050, toolbox. The strength of the EU depends on including 1.2 billion urban, the continent will its openness and integration in world have to provide jobs to young people who markets. (37 p.) enter the labour market in greater numbers each year. (FR - 34 p.) EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Global trade today: five basic facts about global trade La diaspora gabonaise d'opposition en France : une mobilisation politique à by David Henig @DavidHenigUK l'épreuve de la crise post-électorale de 2016
The author argues that benefits of global by Delphine Lecoutre @DelphLecoutre trade are threatened by outdated thinking. We are in danger of losing the benefits of The Gabonese opposition diaspora in trade because so few can explain them France has become a force of political satisfactorily. It is time to update our influence. The author argues that criticizing understanding, our narratives, and ultimately Ali Bongo's regime and the weak opposition the rules around trade. (4 p.) organization in Gabon, diasporic actors could in the future help change the political destiny of the country. (FR - 42 p.)
26/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Empty oceans: EU policy and illegal fishing Emerging from the political crisis in in Ghana Belarus: with or without the intervention of external actors? by Daniele Fattibene @danifatti by Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina The author states that the Covid-19 crisis has demonstrated how dramatically broken the The protests against Belarusian President global food system is. The world has already Lukashenka have continued beyond the witnessed a dramatic increase in August presidential election and have been malnourishment (with 132 million people at surprising as of their scale and level of risk of malnutrition by the end of the year), politicization. What are the scenarios of the and several reports have highlighted the development of this crisis which seems to links between the current pandemic, harmful have reached an impasse? Can Belarus farming techniques and illegal trafficking of emerge from it without resorting to foreign species at risk. (6 p.) mediation? What role could the EU play? (5 p.) ASIA-OCEANIA BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR ASIAN Combatting and preventing corruption in STUDIES Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. How anti- EU-India relations: factoring China in corruption measures can promote democracy and the rule of law by Zahra Beg by Silvia Stöber @tavisupleba
India-China relations are souring. The EU is This report analyses anti-corruption reforms playing a delicate balancing act in advancing in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia along its values and interests with both players. with their impacts. A concluding comparison The EU-India summit of July 2020 is of the three South Caucasus states shows indicative of how the EU looks towards India that each country developed differently after to deliver as a reliable partner in Asia, with gaining independence at the beginning of the similar values of multilateralism and 1990s and each has its own approach to democracy. (8 p.) dealing with corruption. (100 p.)
EASTERN PARTNERSHIP CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES How Black Sea offshore wind power can deliver a green deal for this EU region One year of Zelensky’s Presidency: one step forward, one step back by Irina Kustova @IrKustova and Christian Egenhofer @CEgenhofer by Leonid Litra @LeonidL and Alyona Getmanchuk @getmalyona To date, offshore wind holds the most promise for the necessary volumes to be Zelensky's campaign was articulated around realised. While the North Sea offers the best three objectives: peace in the Donbass, the prospects by far, there is significant potential fight against corruption and the reduction of in other waters, including the Baltic Sea, the poverty. According to this paper, after the southern European waters and the Black victory of his party in the 2019 elections, for Sea. The next generation EU recovery fund the first time in the history of independent is an opportunity for the region to take the Ukraine, a party, not a coalition, won the next step; first plans are emerging. (25 p.) majority of seats in the Rada. President Zelensky therefore benefited from particularly favourable conditions as soon as he came to power. (42 p.)
27/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG WESTERN BALKANS
Geopolitical ambitions in the Black Sea and GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL Caspian region STUDIES by Bernhard Bartsch @bernhardbartsch, Christian-P. Hoti’s first 100 days: amidst Covid-19, Hanelt @ChristianHanelt, Wilfried Jilge et al. economic recession and a deal with Serbia
The Black Sea and Caspian region is a part by Mehdi Sejdiu and Lirika Agusholli of the EU neighbourhood that is increasingly becoming a conflict zone. Having flouted This paper addresses the first 100 days of international law by annexing Crimea, the the Hoti government that were characterized Russian Federation is taking further steps to by a reopening after lockdown, the strengthen its military, political and economic management of Covid-19, the resumption of dominance in the region. In addition to the dialogue with Serbia in Brussels, and an Russia, China and Turkey are also agreement struck in the US. (20 p.) expanding their influence, as are Iran and Saudi Arabia. (65 p.) ÖSTERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN MIDDLE EAST / NORTH AFRICA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL (MENA) AFFAIRS) Der Westbalkan in der Arena INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP geostrategischer Interessen von Russland How Europe can help Lebanon overcome und China its economic implosion by Faruk Ajeti @FarukAjeti
Lebanon’s reeling economy badly needs This paper claims that the EU and the US outside aid. Yet the political class, which have long been the key players in the largely created the problems, is resisting Western Balkans and the European project necessary change. This report claims that is losing its appeal in the Balkans. Russia's the EU should keep limiting its assistance to policy, which aims to prevent or disrupt humanitarian relief until Lebanese politicians further Euro-Atlantic integration of the WB, make reforms that benefit all citizens, not just promotes instability in the region. China’s the privileged few. (30 p.) Balkan policy indicates that Beijing is now more of a geopolitical opponent than a ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI strategic partner. (DE - 9 p.)
Moroccan foreign policy under Mohammed VI: balancing diversity and INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS respect ESTRATÉGICOS by Nizar Messari Los dilemas de la UE y España ante Balcanes Occidentales On 30 July 2020, King Mohammed VI of Morocco celebrated the 21st anniversary of by Ruth Ferrero-Turrión @RFT2 his reign. This brief takes a look back at his The author gives an approach to the current twenty plus years in power analysing how situation of the Western Balkans from the foreign policy has been a key area of interest European perspective: the general context of and dedication for the King. (6 p.) the EU in relation to this region, the challenges the EU High Representative is facing in relation to the current blockade situation in the Balkans and the need for the EU to gain credibility in this region. (ES - 14 p.)
28/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
CHINA INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Course correction: China is going carbon neutral Technology strategies in China and the United States, and the challenges for by Luke O Callaghan-White @lukeocallwhite European companies In an address to the UN General Assembly by Laurence Nardon @LaurenceNardon (ed.) in September, Chinese President, Xi Jinping announced that China will aim to hit peak At a time when international relations are greenhouse gas emissions before 2030 and being redefined around the Sino-American seek to become carbon neutral by 2060. duopoly, the rivalries between these two Four factors seem to underlie the Chinese great powers are structuring many areas, in commitment to be carbon neutral by 2060: particular that of the exchange of sensitive geostrategic considerations, energy security technologies. This is a crucial issue for concerns, rapid levels of urbanisation in European companies. (102 p.) China, and the exponential growth of the Chinese middle-class. (11 p.)
INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH INTERNATIONALES EBERT FOUNDATION) Prospects of a hydrogen economy with The epicentre of a global conflict: the rivalry Chinese characteristics between America and China in Southeast by Kevin Tu Asia
China is showing growing interest in by Sergio Grassi hydrogen and policies are being rolled out to Sino–American relations will play a central create new uses and develop sources of role in efforts to craft a framework for global production other than coal. This brief order. The Chinese leadership under Xi analyses the causes and consequences of Jinping has made it abundantly clear that it China increasing the production and use of has no intention of moving toward hydrogen as a main source of energy in the convergence with the Western-liberal world future. (64 p.) order. China's BRI merges foreign policy with economic-technological goals. Yet it is investments under the aegis of the “digital CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY silk road” that have become the focal point of STUDIES Washington’s security concerns. (8 p.) China’s carbon neutrality goal spells competition for the EU in the market for STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK low-carbon technology (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) by Daniel Gros @DanielGrosCEPS and Milan Elkerbout @MilanElkerbout Wie China Weltpolitik formt. Die Logik von Pekings Außenpolitik unter Xi Jinping China’s announcement that it intends to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is a game by Nadine Godehardt changer for international climate policy. It has considerable implications for the EU’s Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, the climate and industrial policy. China will need direction of Chinese foreign policy has to reduce emissions at a far faster pace than changed significantly. Today, Beijing is the EU has managed so far, but given its high primarily concerned with establishing greater savings rate, it can afford the vast compatibility between a changing world investments needed to green its economy. order and the Chinese one-party (8 p.) state. German and European actors need a deeper understanding of the Chinese logic of
29/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS action. This helps to properly classify China’s estimated reserve capacity of 320 billion activities in areas where the political- cubic meters of gas. (4 p.) ideological differences between Beijing and the West are not always obvious. (DE - 36 p.) INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES RUSSIA Relations Turquie-Chine : ambitions et RAND EUROPE limites de la coopération économique
Understanding Russian Black Sea power by Tolga Bilener dynamics through national security gaming China and Turkey have many interests to by Anika Binnendijk cooperate. According to this paper, the deployment of the Chinese "New Silk Russian military investment in its Black Sea Roads", Turkey's colossal investment and since 2014 has profoundly altered the financing needs, and President Erdogan's security map of the region. While NATO has mistrust of the West are among those taken some steps to assert presence in the interests. Yet economic cooperation Black Sea, the US and its regional allies may between the two countries is struggling to have a limited set of military options with achieve its full potential. (FR - 28 p.) which to further expand existing defence and deterrence measures. This research seeks to identify dimensions of Russian power in UNITED KINGDOM / BREXIT the Black Sea region and assess their NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES potential implications for Western military DELORS options during a regional crisis. (97 p.) Framing the state aid debate for the post- RAND EUROPE Covid era: the Brexit challenge
Russian propaganda hits its mark by Eliveri Fabri by Todd C. Helmus @Helmus , James V. Marrone, The EU is determined to obtain guarantees Marek N. Posard @mnposard, et al. for fair competition in the Brexit negotiations. This paper affirms that the weight of its This report addresses the size and scope of economy, geographical proximity and deep the Russian propaganda campaign that integration into the single market make it an targeted the US electorate in 2016, and its unusual partner. The European market could critical importance to understand both the therefore be significantly distorted if the impact of that campaign and the British government decides to adopt an mechanisms that can reduce the impact of interventionist and discretionary state aid future campaigns. (103 p.) policy at the end of the transition period. (5 p.)
TURKEY LSE IDEAS
INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS Britain’s no-deal debacle? The costs at INTERNATIONALES home and likely setbacks abroad Turkey's new gas discovery in the Black by John Ryan @JMTRYAN2015 Sea and its potential implications by Hasam Selim Özertem The author examines UK skepticism over Europe as a long established phenomenon This report analyses the consequences of as well as the failure over the withdrawal the discovery of the largest amount of gas agreement and the problems with the UK ever made in the Black Sea, which Turkish strategy for Brexit negotiations. (28 p.) President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced in August 2020. The first results showed an
30/34
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS
INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND and procedures, and then focusing on the EUROPEAN AFFAIRS state of the electoral campaign. (IT - 22 p.)
Brexit and the implementation of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION) by Blair Horan A return to diplomacy: the Iran nuclear deal This paper examines the background to the and a Democratic White House implementation of the Protocol, and assesses the prospects for a successful by David Jalilvand @davidrjalilvand and Achim Vogt outcome to the EU-UK negotiations by the 1 @AchimVogtBeirut (eds.) January 2021. (17 p.) According to this study, a Joe Biden administration would likely make an early EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE diplomatic push to ease tensions with Iran. Biden has said he favours the US rejoining The implications of a no-deal Brexit for the nuclear deal if Iran also returns to full the EU compliance. In that case, Tehran demands reliable sanctions relief and compensation by Jannike Wachowiak @JannikeWach for the economic fallout of US sanctions. The article discusses the implications for the During the US transition, Europe would need EU of a no-deal Brexit at economic, political to shift quickly from trying to save the nuclear and geopolitical level. To this end, it analyses deal to forging a new transatlantic approach its consequences in aspects such as the to Tehran, helping kickstart US - Iranian level of unity in the EU and the future EU-UK negotiations. (33 p.) relationship. (7 p.) CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS US foreign policy priorities; what difference INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS can an election make? INTERNATIONALES by Leslie Vinjamuri @londonvinjamuri (ed.) L’inégalité du Collège électoral aux États- Unis: comment réparer la démocratie The authors consider the most pressing américaine? foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of by Soufian Alsabbagh @4lsabbagh_S the 2020 election will affect these. Whoever sits in the White House will shape the According to this paper, the inequality of the trajectory of the US-China relationship and Electoral College, which consecrates the the global economy after the Covid-19 election of the president in the US by indirect pandemic, as well as international universal suffrage, has arguably never been cooperation on climate action, international more denounced than in the twenty-first trade and technology policy, and health. (84 century. (FR - 6 p.) p.)
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNATIONALI
Le elezioni negli Stati Uniti by Riccardo Alcaro @Ric_Alcaro
This study addresses the growing international attention towards the US politics, its electoral and constitutional system. Thus, it offers a clear guidance on this important event, first illustrating the rules
31/34
thirty years later, where does Germany stand? (FR - 5 p.)
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Finanzpolitik mit Weitblick ausrichten
by Jens Boysen‐ Hogrefe @HogrefeJens, Gabriel Felbermayr @GFelbermayr, Stefan Kooths @StefanKooths et al. SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES The authors note that, although public CZECHIA budgets showed significant surpluses before the corona crisis, both revenues and INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU expenditures had risen noticeably relative to EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR economic output. They currently see it as a EUROPEAN POLICY) priority goal of fiscal policy to overcome the acute crisis. (DE - 52 p.) How to sustainably finance climate neutrality in the Czech Republic? THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE by David Němeček UNITED STATES
The author examines how to sustainably The consequences of a Trump or Biden win finance climate neutrality in the Czech for Germany Republic. (CS - 7 p.) by Peter Sparding @PSparding INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR According to the paper, few countries have a EUROPEAN POLICY) / WILFRIED MARTENS greater interest in the US presidential CENTER FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES / election than Germany. It is the moment INSTITUTE FOR CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC when Berlin will have to make a strategic POLITICS (IKDP) decision. Nobody should expect any quick The European green way - the future of the fixes in the US-German relationship during a Czech Republic? Biden presidency. Yet it would offer a window of opportunity to put the relationship on an by Kateřina Davidová @k8_davidova adjusted footing. (9 p.)
This report focuses on ideas for the Czech Republic on the way to its sustainable future. IRELAND (CS - 28 p.) ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE GERMANY Recreational angling demand in a mixed INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS resource fishery INTERNATIONALES by Gianluca Grilli, Soumyadeep Mukhopadhyay, John Trente ans après sa réunification, le Curtis et al. «moment européen» de l’Allemagne ? Recreational anglers targeting pike or brown by Paul Maurice @Pl_Maurice trout regularly share fishing locations but often have different attitudes and objectives According to the author, although rapid, the for fishery management due to the German reunification process has failed to interactions between the species. The resolve certain fractures - territorial, social primary objective of this research is to and political - which are still keenly felt. Now, establish whether anglers targeting pike and
32/34
trout in Ireland differ in terms of their SPAIN preferences, angling effort and benefits obtained from angling. (4 p.) FUNDACIÓN ALTERNATIVAS
Informe sobre la democracia en España ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 2019 INSTITUTE by Alberto Penadés de la Cruz (ed.) How does Irish healthcare expenditure compare internationally? This report reflects on the state of the Spanish democracy in 2019 and analyses by Maev-Ann Wren and Aoife Fitzpatrick the main current social topics like climate This study examines how Irish healthcare change, inequality and access to information expenditure (HCE) compares to expenditure under the optics of the democratic in other countries. It also seeks to distinguish institutions of the country. (ES - 238 p.) the effects on HCE comparisons of healthcare prices and volumes, accounting FRANCE issues, health system characteristics and the health or social care service. (130 p.) NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Enseigner l’Europe en France: ancrer la INSTITUTE dimension européenne dans Carbon taxes, poverty and compensation l’enseignement secondaire français options by Thierry Chopin @Th_Chopin by Seamus O’Malley, Barra Roantree @barratree and John Curtis Europe was first built on a common project, identity and memory. The author thus raises The paper examines how the Irish carbon tax the issue of the place given to Europe in can be raised without increasing poverty and secondary education in France, where the disproportionately affecting low-income citizens of tomorrow are forged, but where households. (44 p.) crucial decisions are also made on the professional or academic future of students. (FR - 126 p.) GREECE
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS STUDIES / NATION INSTITUTE OF CENTRE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH / ECORYS Time to unlock the potential of bi- parliamentarism: the Franco-German model Study on the sovereign debt sustainability in Greece during the economic adjustment by Thu Nguyen @onethuthree and Henriette Heimbach programmes: 2010-2018 The inception of the Franco-German by Cinzia Alcidi @AlcidiCinzia, Angela Capolongo Parliamentary Assembly in January 2019 and Daniel Gros @DanielGrosCEPS marked an important step towards the institutionalization of Franco-German This study presents an assessment of the parliamentary relations. The authors role of sovereign debt sustainability in the conclude that despite its shortcomings, the three adjustment programmes for Greece, Assembly can serve as a role model for other focusing on five dimensions: debt MS to establish and institutionalize similar sustainability assessment, debt forms of bi-parliamentarism. (6 p.) restructuring, structural reforms, the impact of PSI and access to markets. (78 p.)
33/34
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE organising work. Trade unions are not fully aware of the new environment. (7 p.) Les quartiers pauvres ont un avenir by Hakim El Karoui @helkaroui FINLAND
Over the past forty years, successive ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH governments have implemented "suburban INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) plans" with a social angle or a prospect of housing renovation. But the economic angle is Government reports on Finnish foreign and absent from the reflections. Statistical work security policy: relevant but not without was carried out on the economic dynamics of problems poor neighbourhoods, in order to understand their economic stakes, fight against by Henri Vanhanen @HenriVanhanen misconceptions and propose useful courses of The government reports on foreign and action for a public debate. (FR - 252 p.) security policy have become a well- established and recognized practice. ITALY Regardless of the reports’ institutionalized role in Finnish foreign and security policy FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN practices, they are not without problems. It PROGRESSIVE STUDIES is relevant to ask whether the current tradition of producing reports is the most The re-shaping of the political discourse in effective way to outline or signal Finland’s times of crises: the Italian laboratory overall foreign and security policy. (8 p.) by Giacomo Bottos @GiacomoBottos, Eleonora Desiata @EleonoraDesiata and Andrea Pareschi ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) During the last decade, European party systems have experienced a profound Finnish foreign policy during EU overhaul. The emergence of new populist membership: unlocking the EU’s security parties, both right and left wings, new issues potential and new modes of communication have by Matti Pesu @PesuMatti, Tuomas Iso-Markku and radically transformed mainstream political Juha Jokela discourse. The Covid-19 pandemic has likewise reshuffled all previous political This paper looks at the evolution of Finnish priorities and compelled officeholders and foreign and security policy during the party leaders to calibrate their political country’s 25 years as an EU member. The discourse accordingly. (19 p.) paper aims to trace how – and with what kind of consequences – Finnish foreign and HUNGARY security policy has interacted with EU foreign policy during the membership period. (34 p.) CENTER FOR POLITICAL STUDIES
Unionisation of non-local workers: capacity building opportunity for trade unions? by Tibor T. Meszmann and Olena Fedyuk
Plant level trade unions in automotives operate in a newly configured, highly volatile, crisis environment in Hungary. According to this paper, besides insecurities stemming from market demand for production, the employment of non-local workers additionally increases the burden on
34/34