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HIDING in PLAIN SIGHT Putin's War in Ukraine by Maksymilian Czuperski, John Herbst, Eliot Higgins, Alina Polyakova, and Damon Wilson

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HIDING in PLAIN SIGHT Putin's War in Ukraine by Maksymilian Czuperski, John Herbst, Eliot Higgins, Alina Polyakova, and Damon Wilson HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT Putin's War in Ukraine By Maksymilian Czuperski, John Herbst, Eliot Higgins, Alina Polyakova, and Damon Wilson © 2015 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Atlantic Council, except in the case of brief quotations in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. Please direct inquiries to: Atlantic Council 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 ISBN: 978-1-61977-996-9 Cover photo credit: Reuters/Marko Djurica. Pro-Russian rebels stand on top of a burnt-out Ukrainian personnel carrier near the village of Novokaterinovka in eastern Ukraine, September 24, 2014. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. May 2015 ATLANTIC COUNCIL HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT REPORT TEAM Maksymilian Czuperski Special Assistant to the President, Atlantic Council John Herbst Director, Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council and former US Ambassador to Ukraine Eliot Higgins Founder, Bellingcat and Visiting Research Associate, Department of War Studies, King’s College London Alina Polyakova Associate Director, Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council Damon Wilson Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword............................................ .............................................................................................1 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................3 Background: A Kremlin-Made War .......................................................................... 4 Russian Denial of Facts ..................................................................................................7 Using Digital Forensics to Expose Russia’s War in Ukraine ............................8 A Steady Flow of Arms and Military Equipment from Russia to Eastern Ukraine .................................................................................8 Border Camps: Preparing for Combat ................................................................. 13 Russian Troops in Ukraine .......................................................................................... 15 Cargo 200: Hiding Russia’s Dead ............................................................................ 17 Cross-Border Shelling .................................................................................................. 18 Policy Recommendations ..........................................................................................20 Casebook .......................................................................................................................... 21 Section 1. Russian Military Equipment in Use in Ukraine ........................................21 Section 2. Russian Training Camps on Ukraine’s Border ......................................23 Section 3. Russian Soldiers in Ukraine ..........................................................................25 Section 4. Russian Cross-Border Artillery Attacks on Ukraine ...........................28 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 32 HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT: Putin’s War in Ukraine FOREWORD Europe whole, free, and at peace in which Russia enjoys its peaceful place. In fact, many in our community aspired not onlyFor twenty-five for a strategic years, partnership prominent with members Russia, of but the envisioned Atlantic Council an alliance community between have Russia worked and NATOto advance contributing the vision to ofin- a ternational stability and security. Unfortunately, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine today mock this vision and threaten the international order established at the end of the Cold War. In hindsight, the West might have recognized and responded to Mr. Putin’s assertiveness much earlier. Regardless of the moment of origin, however, it became clear in 2014, after Russia’s seizure and annexation of Crimea and its covert war in Ukraine’s east, that this major challenge to international security required a decisive and comprehensive response. The Atlantic Council responded to this challenge in February 2014 by launching the Ukraine in Europe Initiative, with a focus on enhancing Ukraine’s security, advancing Ukraine’s reform process and economic prospects, and keeping attention on Russian-occupied Crimea. The Council’s Initiative also aims to counter Moscow’s massive disinformation - likely to coalesce around an effective strategy to support Ukraine and deter Mr. Putin. This report, Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin’scampaign. War If in the Ukraine international, is the Council’s community contribution cannot distinguish to offer clarity. fact from fiction, or chooses not to do so in public, it is un Putin.Russian To propaganda reveal the full frames extent the of Ukraine Russian crisis military as a intervention civil war. In reality,in Ukraine, the conflictthe Atlantic in Ukraine’s Council easthas producedis a Kremlin- this study, usingmanufactured publicly availablewar—fueled information by Russian-made and rigorous military analysis. equipment, fought by Russian soldiers, and supported by Mr. Courageous Ukrainians and frontline diplomats inspired this effort. This report is a result of the leadership and vision of Council Executive Vice President Damon Wilson and Director of the Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center and for- mer US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst; the dedication and tenacity of Associate Director of the Ukraine in Europe Initiative Dr. Alina Polyakova and social media savvy Special Assistant Maksymilian Czuperski; and the ingenuity of our key partner in this endeavor, Eliot Higgins of Bellingcat. The information documented in this report draws on open source data using innovative socialmedia forensics and geolocation and is informed by team visits Ambassador Herbst Thisled to effort Ukraine would in March not have and been April possible 2015, during without which the support Maks and of Alinathose also who visited have stood the conflict behind zone. the Council’s work on Ukraine, including George Chopivsky and the Chopivsky Family Foundation, Ambassador Julie Finley, Frontera Resourc- es, Ian Ihnatowycz and Marta Witer, Lenna Koszarny and Horizon Capital, James Temerty, the Smith Richardson Foun- dation, the Ukrainian World Congress led by President Eugene Czolij and Vice President Paul Grod, and the Patriciu family. Only after the assassination of Boris Nemtsov, steps from the Kremlin, did the Council team learn about his efforts to expose Mr. Putin’s war. While the work Mr. Nemtsov spearheaded remains distinct from the Council’s, our teams have sub- sequently coordinated the release of this report with Mr. Nemtsov’s report to reinforce our common message: Mr. Putin led his nation into war against a peaceful neighbor and lied about it. Review and share the facts via #PutinAtWar. We hope you find this report lively, thoughtful, and provocative. Frederick Kempe Damon Wilson President and CEO Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council Programs and Strategy Atlantic Council ATLANTIC COUNCIL 1 HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT: Putin’s War in Ukraine EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Russia is at war with Ukraine. Russian citizens and soldiers Putin has used each lull in combat, now under the cover making. President Vladimir Putin continues to deny Russian direct role in the conflict. The West must also recognize that are fighting and dying in a war of their government’s own Russian and Russian-backed forces in Ukraine’s east and to and indisputable. Drawing upon open source information of the negotiated ceasefire in Minsk, to further reinforce thatinvolvement is “hiding in in the plain fighting, sight,” but this the report evidence provides is overwhelming irrefutable strengthens the capacity and arsenal of the forces in eastern evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine,prepare forthe the Kremlin next stage is building of fighting. its case Furthermore, that forces engagedas Russia Ukraine. Ukrainian forces rather than Moscow’s creation.1 This report is the result of an Atlantic Council Working Group in any future outbreaks in fighting are indigenous, legitimate launched to examine direct Russian military involvement in In addition, to counter Russia’s disinformation war, the Working Ukraine. Discussions in March 2015 with senior Ukrainian Group recommends that Western governments: - • devote substantially more intelligence assets to un- civilian and military officials in Kyiv, investigative journal veiling and countering Putin’s war in Ukraine; ists, and a fact-finding mission to eastern Ukraine inform the • employ new digital forensic methods and geoloca- report• and its conclusions. It finds: tion analysis to collect intelligence that is releasable troops and camp buildups along the Ukrainian border. to the public to complement covert and technical • RSatussianellite trainingimages confirm camps stationedthe movement along of the Russian intelligence collection; Ukrainian border are the launching points of Russia’s • make public, to the maximum extent
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