Analisi Del Settore Automotive Tramite Applicazione Della Metodologia Rating Moody’S

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Analisi Del Settore Automotive Tramite Applicazione Della Metodologia Rating Moody’S POLITECNICO DI TORINO Collegio di Ingegneria Gestionale Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Ingegneria Gestionale percorso Finanza Tesi di Laurea Magistrale Analisi del settore automotive tramite applicazione della Metodologia Rating Moody’s Relatore Candidato Prof. Franco Varetto Vincenzo Navarra Anno Accademico 2020/2021 Indice Introduzione .............................................................................................................................. 5 1. Le Agenzie di Rating ......................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Il ruolo delle Agenzie di Rating ................................................................................... 6 1.2 Le Agenzie di Rating nel processo di Regulation Bancaria ........................................ 8 1.3 L’intermediazione nel rating del credito .................................................................... 12 1.4 Gli step nell’emissione di un rating ........................................................................... 14 2. Il Settore Automotive ...................................................................................................... 18 2.1 Gli anni di crisi del Settore Automobilistico: 2009-2013 .......................................... 19 2.2 Il rilancio del settore automotive: 2014-2015 ............................................................ 21 2.3 Il rinnovato trend di crescita: 2016-2017 ................................................................... 26 2.4 La battuta d’arresto: 2018-2019 ................................................................................. 35 2.5 La profonda crisi del settore automotive: 2020 ......................................................... 42 3. La Metodologia Rating Moody’s ................................................................................... 49 3.1 Il perimetro dell’analisi rating ................................................................................... 49 3.2 I fattori di Rating ........................................................................................................ 51 3.3 Profilo Business ......................................................................................................... 55 3.4 Profilo Finanziario ..................................................................................................... 59 3.5 Politica Finanziaria .................................................................................................... 66 4. Applicazione Metodologia Rating al settore Automotive ............................................ 69 4.1 Campione e Banca Dati ............................................................................................. 69 4.2 Calcolo dei Rating ..................................................................................................... 72 4.2.1 Profittabilità: Margine EBITA............................................................................ 74 4.2.2 Leva e Copertura Finanziaria ............................................................................. 76 4.2.2.1 Debiti/EBITDA ............................................................................................... 76 4.2.2.2 Cassa e titoli negoziabili/Debito ..................................................................... 77 4.2.2.3 RCF/Debiti ...................................................................................................... 78 4.2.2.4 FCF/Debiti ...................................................................................................... 79 4.2.2.5 EBITA/Oneri finanziari .................................................................................. 80 4.3 Rating complessivo finale .......................................................................................... 81 4.4 Classi di Sintesi .......................................................................................................... 82 4.5 Matrici di Transizione ................................................................................................ 91 4.6 Limitazioni nella Procedura Rating applicata ............................................................ 99 Conclusioni ............................................................................................................................ 106 5. Bibliografia e Sitografia ................................................................................................ 108 6. Appendice ....................................................................................................................... 110 Indice delle Figure Figura 1.1 Attori nel processo di Rating ............................................................................................... 13 Figura 1.2 Iter di assegnazione di un rating ......................................................................................... 17 Figura 2.1 Produzione nazionale: Fonte Anfia..................................................................................... 19 Figura 2.2 Produzione autobus 1996-2015: Fonte Anfia ..................................................................... 22 Figura 2.3 Produzione industriale 2015: Fonte Anfia .......................................................................... 22 Figura 2.4 Tipologia di alimentazione su tot immatricolazioni: Fonte Aida........................................ 25 Figura 2.5 Istogramma Produzione-Fatturato-Ordinativi 2016: Fonte Anfia ..................................... 27 Figura 2.6 Trend import ed export componentistica Auto: Fonte Anfia ............................................... 28 Figura 2.7 Distribuzione privati e società per tipologia di combustibile 2016: Fonte Anfia ............... 30 Figura 2.8 Istogramma Produzione-Fatturato-Ordinativi 2017: Fonte Anfia ..................................... 32 Figura 2.9 Variazione Produzione, Fatturato ed ordinativi 2018: Fonte Anfia ................................... 36 Figura 2.10 Indici di produzione industriale, fatturato ed ordinativi 2019: Fonte ISTAT ................... 38 Figura 2.11 Produzione Domestica di Auto Diesel 2015-2019: Fonte Anfia ....................................... 38 Figura 2.12 Parco circolante per anzianità 2019: Fonte Anfia ........................................................... 40 Figura 2.13 Variazioni % immatricolazioni mensili tendenziali 2020-2019: Fonte Anfia ................... 44 Figura 2.14 Clima di fiducia, indice destagionalizzato (base2010=100): Fonte ISTAT ...................... 46 Figura 2.15 Trend annuale immatricolazioni autovetture: Fonte Anfia ............................................... 47 Figura 4.1 Scala Rating Moody's: Fonte Moody's Investitor Service ................................................... 73 Figura 4.2 Andamento temporale classi di Rating................................................................................ 84 Figura 4.3 Classi di sintesi 2013/17 ..................................................................................................... 87 Figura 4.4 Andamento Temporale Classi Investiment e Speculative grade ......................................... 88 Indice delle Tabelle Tabella 1.1 Classi di Ponderazione Basilea 1 ........................................................................................ 9 Tabella 1.2 Ponderazione rischi Basilea 2 ........................................................................................... 10 Tabella 2.1 Volumi di produzione 2014-2015: Fonte Anfia ................................................................. 23 Tabella 2.2 Immatricolazioni 2015: Fonte Anfia .................................................................................. 24 Tabella 2.3 Produzione Domestica Autoveicoli 2016: Fonte Anfia ...................................................... 26 Tabella 2.4 Immatricolazioni autoveicoli anno 2016: Fonte Anfia ...................................................... 29 Tabella 2.5 Produzione nazionale autoveicoli 2016: Fonte Anfia ........................................................ 31 Tabella 2.6 Immatricolazioni autoveicoli 2017: Fonte Anfia ............................................................... 33 Tabella 2.7 Parco vetture per alimentazione 2017: Fonte ACI ............................................................ 35 Tabella 2.8 Immatricolazioni autovetture per regione: Fonte Anfia .................................................... 48 Tabella 3.1 Fattori di Rating: Fonte Moody's ...................................................................................... 52 Tabella 3.2 Scala rating fattori qualitativi ............................................................................................ 53 Tabella 3.3 Scala rating fattori quantitativi .......................................................................................... 54 Tabella 3.4 Intervalli score numerici per classi di rating: Fonte Moody's ........................................... 54 Tabella 3.5 Tabella Rating Profilo Business: Fonte Moody’s .............................................................. 59 Tabella 3.6 Scorecard Profittabilità ed Efficienza: Fonte Moody's ...................................................... 61 Tabella 3.7 Scorecard Leva e Copertura finanziaria: Fonte Moody's ................................................. 66 Tabella 3.8 Scorecard profilo finanziario: Fonte Moody's ................................................................... 68 Tabella 4.1 Estremi classe Margine EBITA .........................................................................................
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