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Market Masala… the Flavors That Influenced the Market This Week

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Market Masala… the Flavors That Influenced the Market This Week Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Market Masala… The flavors that influenced the market this week Week 21/CY20: 16th – 23rd May 1 Headlines this week Go India Advisors RBI negative GDP guidance; Trade war barbs; Moderna's vaccine shot Weekly Newsletter US President raised the pitch Moderna released positive RBI has been taking alternative rounds with against China and seems to make phase 1 trial data for it's government to announce relief measures it the main agenda for the upcoming Covid19 vaccine over for the economy. In a surprise Monetary upcoming US elections. The last weekend, which kick Committee Meeting, RBI announced a Senate this week has approved a started the global risk on trade. 40bps reduction in repo rate. More plan to delist Chinese companies However, the rally got shot in importantly they increased the moratorium from the US stock exchanges. the foot as many institutions on loans by another 3 months to 30th While the regulatory process is raised doubts about the quality August 2020. Market was disappointed as long and unlikely this legislation of data. There was only partial they were hoping for a one-time will see the light of the day but data released through a press restructuring of loans. Also some investors does enough to spook the release, and no peer review is worried about deteriorating credit culture market. possible and possible spurt in NPAs. 23-05-2020 2 Global markets – risk on/risk off depends Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter which side of the bed you (or Mr Trump) got up, his tweets and vaccine update Returns % Index 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year YTD 17 May - 23 May 24 May - 23 May 24 May'19 - 23 May'20 1 Jan - 23 May Dow 30 3.29% 2.90% -4.38% -14.27% S&P 500 3.20% 4.18% 4.58% -8.52% Nasdaq 3.44% 7.99% 22.10% 3.92% FTSE 100 3.34% 4.19% -17.65% -20.54% Nikkei 225 1.75% 5.85% -3.45% -13.82% Shanghai -1.91% 0.19% -1.37% -7.75% Hang Seng -3.64% -3.78% -16.17% -18.66% KOSPI 2.22% 4.29% -3.68% -10.35% Nifty 50 -1.07% -1.26% -23.68% -25.72% BSE Sensex -1.37% -2.09% -22.22% -25.65% Data for year 2020; except as specified 23-05-2020 3 Indian market – slip, can't sustain rally Go India Advisors IT makes a comeback, Telcos, Pharma and FMCG uptrend continues Weekly Newsletter Indian Markets for Week Ending 23rd May 2020 For more information: Click on the image. 23-05-2020 4 Post Covid 19 Indian market – 2 paced Go India Advisors Financial sector has been decimated, still closer to 52w low Weekly Newsletter Indian Markets performance for last 3 months For more information: Click on the image. 23-05-2020 5 RBI – MPC more moratorium; rate cut Market missed one-time restructuring; Negative GDP comment hogged limelight Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter o 1 o Repo rate reduced by 40 4 The committee decided to basis points from 4.4 per continue with its cent to 4 per cent. "accommodative" policy stance. 2 o Reverse repo now stands at 5 o The RBI flagged risks of a 3.35 per cent, a reduction of negative GDP print this 155 basis points from 4.9 per year, while holding back on cent in March. a point target 6 o Lending institutions to 3 o The loan moratorium was allow deferment of interest extended by another three on working capital facilities months, till August 31, 2020 till August 23-05-2020 6 RBI – MPC: Muted Reaction Market worried about deteriorating credit culture Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Suvodeep Rakshit: Kotak Equities Rajat Rajgarhia: Motilal Oswal o Lowering the cost of capital is some relief in these o The RBI’s decision continues to indicate that they times. Moratorium extension was expected, remain proactive.. broader markets will focus on considering the economic activity levels. India liquidity measures.. markets will be focused on would need more measures on a continuous further steps by the RBI to safeguard the banking basis on both fiscal and monetary front to revive system (and broader financial system) the economy Dhiraj Relli: HDFC Securities Abhimanyu Sofat: IIFL Securities o The cautious language in the statement of the o The commentary speech underpins the low governor raises concerns about the state of the prospects of a V shaped recovery. We also believe economy. The markets have initially reacted government should provide subvention on negatively to the RBI announcement. Bank existing loans or bear some cost of the haircut of shareholders are worried about the current existing loans. This would ensure more economic conditions and the pain that is getting confidence to banks to lend to lower rated postponed due to the moratorium entities or individuals. 23-05-2020 7 Credit culture wasn't great pre Covid too Go India Advisors Insolvency resolution cases doubled in FY20 Weekly Newsletter No. of cases under the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP) New Admitted Cases Appeal Reveal/ Settled Resolution/Withdrawl/Liquidation CIRPs at the end of quarter 1966 2170 1575 1099 1227 894 769 702 541 195 28 206 27 365 438 50 127 23 160 26 147 22 33 142 13 138 18 23 582 613 8 0 158 40 66 10 70 382 387 1 0 36 235 31 249 242 276 301 37 130 144 196 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 23-05-2020 8 Manufacturing and Real Estate were stressed Insolvent cases could rise sharply from service sector too post Covid Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Sectoral Distribution of CDs under CIRP ending Q4FY20 ( no. of cases) 1527 Admitted Closed Ongoing 851 757 676 450 408 378 387 307 261 210 177 210 147 168 117 112 88 42 46 30 87 57 55 Manufacturing Real Estate, Renting & Construction Wholesale & Retail Hotels & Restaurants Electricity & Others Transport, Storage & Others Business Activities Trade Communication Distribution of stakeholders triggering CIRP (%) 70% Operational Creditors Financial Creditors Corporate Debtors 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 23-05-2020 9 Corporate stress could double Ind-Ra predicts that stressed loans can increase from 3.8% to 6.6% of bank credit Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Profitability dip expected as Credit Costs (%) will spike Pre Covid (FY21) Post Covid (FY 21) 3.2 2.8 2.2 2 1.8 1.4 Public Sector Banks Private Banks System o Corporate slippages is expected at INR 4.3 tn in FY21 - Based on Ind-Ra’s vulnerability framework and corporate stress analysis of 30,000 corporates, the total corporate standard-but-stressed corporate pool may increase from 3.8% of the total bank credit as of December (pre-COVID-19 levels) 2019 to up to 6.6% under Ind-Ra’s post COVID-19 corporate stress case. The incremental stress is mainly from sectors including power, infrastructure, constructions, hospitality, iron & steel, telecom and realty. o About 40% of the incremental slippages could come from the non-corporate segments – retail, agriculture & MSME. The impact could be higher especially for private sector banks whose unsecured retail portfolio accounts for 16.6% of the total bank credit as against 6.3% for public sector banks (PSBs). o The capital requirement under the benign provision regime for PSBs would range from INR300 billion-550 billion; this also factors in the volatile markets for additional tier 1 bonds and hence limited traction in the same. 23-05-2020 10 Credit risks may not be fully built in Current P/B of bank Nifty building in 72% increase in GNPA to 16% Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Does Price-Book and asset quality stress correlate? 100% 1 year forward change (%) in GNPA of Scheduled Commercial Banks % change in Price-Book of BankNifty 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 o P/B ratios for Bank Nifty are negatively correlated with the system GNPA of Scehduled Commercial Banks. o A regression analysis, shows that the current 54% drop in P/B from 3.08x to 1.68x, indicates that market is building in 72% increase in GNPA to approximately 16% levels. o Now this could be conservative estimate of GNPA, as we discussed the possibility of it's doubling in previous slide. 23-05-2020 11 MFs – reduce exposure to Banks/NBFC Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Reduce Banks/NBFC by 450bps; Biggest increase 230bps Pharma Sector Wise Allocation of Equity AUM of Mutual Funds 30.0 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 % of AUM Equity of MutualFunds 0.0 CONSTRUCTION CONSUMER PETROLEUM PHARMACEUTIC AUTO BANKS CEMENT FINANCE POWER SOFTWARE PROJECT NON DURABLES PRODUCTS ALS Jan-20 3.4 24.4 3.0 3.7 7.8 10.3 5.4 5.2 3.2 8.1 Feb-20 3.2 24.4 3.0 3.3 8.1 10.3 5.1 5.3 3.6 7.7 Mar-20 3.0 21.3 2.9 2.8 9.4 9.4 6.2 6.6 3.7 9.0 Apr-20 3.4 20.8 2.9 2.7 8.5 9.4 6.9 7.5 3.6 8.9 23-05-2020 12 FIIs continue to exit pre & post Covid19 Go India Advisors HLL & RIL bought; rest all sold Weekly Newsletter Sector-wise FPI / FII Investments since COVID-19 pandemic outbreak ( INR Cr) 5,000 Mar-20 Apr-20 - (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) (20,000) (25,000) Automobiles & Auto Components Auto & Automobiles Services Financial Total Goods Capital & Petrochemicals Chemicals Coal Materials Construction Durables Consumer & Tobacco Beverages Food, & Tourism Restaurants Hotels, Products Personal & Household Insurance Media Mining & Metals Gas & Oil Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals Realty Retailing Services & Software Services Telecom Accessories & Apparels Textiles, Transportation Utilities Others 23-05-2020 13 Voices that Matter – cautious and new normal Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Coronavirus crisis is Banks will struggle to
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    STEEL May 2021 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Advantage India 4 Market Overview 6 Recent Trends and Strategies 16 Growth Drivers 21 Opportunities 27 Key Industry Contacts 30 Appendix 32 2 Executive summary Strong growth opportunities Second-largest • Demand for steel from different sectors will producer of crude steel drive this industry. • Consumption of steel by India’s infrastructure • For the period April 2020 and February segment is expected to increase to 11% by 2021, India’s cumulative production of crude FY26. steel stood at 93.1 MT. • Steel demand from the automotive sector is • Between April 2020 and March 2021, India’s expected to increase due to rise in the cumulative production of finished steel demand for automobiles. finished steel at 76.04 MT. • The new Vehicle Scrappage policy will help in • SAIL reported 9% growth in crude steel reducing steel prices as the policy enables production for the Q3 FY21. The production recycling of materials used in old vehicles. stood at 4.37 million tonnes against 4 mt • On the healthcare front, key steel producers during the same period in FY20. are now exceeding their capacities to • Total crude steel production in India produce oxygen cylinders for COVID increased at a CAGR of 4.85% betwwen patients. FY16 and FY20, with the country’s output • The Smart Cities’ Affordable Housing and reaching 108.50 million tonnes per annum industrial corridors are a few government (MTPA) in FY20. intitivates to boost the steel industry • India surpassed Japan to become the • About 158 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of steel world’s second-largest steel producer in are likely to be consumed in the construction 2019, with crude steel production of 111.2 of houses sanctioned under the Pradhan million tonnes.
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