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Q2 2014 Vietnam Q2 2014 www.businessmonitor.com VIETNAM AUTOS REPORT INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2018 ISSN 1749-0286 Published by:Business Monitor International Vietnam Autos Report Q2 2014 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2018 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: January 2014 Business Monitor International © 2014 Business Monitor International Senator House All rights reserved. 85 Queen Victoria Street London All information contained in this publication is EC4V 4AB copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor United Kingdom International, and as such no part of this Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 publication may be reproduced, repackaged, Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used Email: [email protected] in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Vietnam Autos Report Q2 2014 CONTENTS BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7 SWOT .................................................................................................................................... 9 SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Political ................................................................................................................................................. 10 Economic ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Business Environment .............................................................................................................................. 12 Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 13 Table: Vietnam Autos Production, 2011-2018 ......................................................................................................... 13 Table: Vietnam Autos Sales, 2011-2018 (VAMA Members) ............................................................................................ 17 Table: Vietnam Autos Trade, 2011-2018 ............................................................................................................... 20 Table: Vietnam - 2014 Import Tax Regime ............................................................................................................. 21 Industry Forecast ± Passenger Cars ............................................................................................................ 23 Industry Forecast ± Commercial Vehicles .................................................................................................... 24 Table: Top Five Companies By CV Sales ............................................................................................................... 24 Industry Forecast ± Suppliers .................................................................................................................... 24 Macroeconomic Forecasts ............................................................................................... 30 Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity .................................................................................................................... 33 Industry Risk Reward Ratings .......................................................................................... 34 Asia-Pacific ± Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................ 34 Table: Asia-Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings ........................................................................................................ 37 Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 38 Company Monitor .................................................................................................................................... 38 GM Vietnam ........................................................................................................................................... 41 Mercedes-Benz Vietnam ............................................................................................................................ 42 Automotive Asia Ltd ................................................................................................................................. 44 Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 45 Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS) ..................................................................................................................... 45 Global Industry Overview .................................................................................................. 50 Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) .................................................................................................. 50 Europe On Road To Recovery .................................................................................................................. 50 Tax Hike Skews Japan©s Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 ...................................................................................... 52 China Is BRIC Bright Spot ....................................................................................................................... 54 Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 57 Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 57 Table: Vietnam©s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (©000) ........................................................................................ 58 © Business Monitor International Page 4 Vietnam Autos Report Q2 2014 Table: Vietnam©s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .................................................................................. 59 Table: Vietnam©s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .................................................................................................. 60 Table: Vietnam©s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ........................................................................................... 60 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 61 Industry Forecasts .................................................................................................................................. 61 Sector-Specific Methodology .................................................................................................................... 62 Sources ................................................................................................................................................ 62 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ............................................................................................................ 63 Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators .................................................................... 64 © Business Monitor International Page 5 Vietnam Autos Report Q2 2014 BMI Industry View According to the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association (VAMA), vehicle sales of its members grew 20.0% in 2013, to 96,688 units. The strong showing in 2013 was largely attributed to the rebound in the automotive sector, which was ravaged by the recession that hit the country in 2012. We remain bullish on the Vietnamese auto market, however, and forecast vehicle sales to grow 10.0% in 2014. While this is below 2013's growth rate, it is because vehicle sales have normalised and the higher base effects of 2013 will make it harder for them to continue growing at such a rapid clip. Our bullish outlook on the sector chimes with our Country Risk team's optimistic view on Vietnam's economy. As the government takes steps to privatise the country's state-owned enterprises (SOEs), we see it as a harbinger for more free market reforms in the coming years, which will undoubtedly provide a boost to economic growth (see 'Privatisation Of SOEs Highly Positive For The Economy', January 8). BMI forecasts Vietnam's GDP to grow 5.9% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015. Besides the ongoing privatisation drive, another factor supporting auto sales is our outlook for stable interest rates in 2014. Our Country Risk team forecasts the State Bank of Vietnam's benchmark
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