Time to Double Down on Quality
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Navigating Vietnam Time to double down on quality IN ALLIANCE WITH January 2019 IN ALLIANCE WITH Navigating 2019 STRATEGIST'S NOTE In our 2018 strategy report published at the start of last year, we highlighted the fact that Vietnam’s 2017 stock market performance would be a tough act to follow. We expected the market to peak shortly after breaching the 1,100 point high-water mark largely due to a whole host of global factors which we categorized into the “predictable” (US Federal Reserve rate hikes) and the “black swans” (largely unknown, by definition, although we alluded to US- North Korea tensions and a hard landing in China’s economy). Nonetheless, we reiterated our confidence in Vietnam’s macro economy and consequent strength in corporate earnings. We saw continued strength in cyclical names with overweight ratings on the banking sector and flagged the textiles and fishery sectors based on their strong export prospects and the automotive sector for its recovery from a policy-induced trough in 2017. Finally, we alerted investors to the growing divergence between mid-cap and large cap valuations which we thought was unsustainable. Fast-forward a year and we were right to be cautiously optimistic. The VN-Index peaked at 1,200 points, the Fed rate hikes triggered an era of equity market volatility and more than a handful of black swan risks surfaced including the US-China trade tensions and a disorderly Brexit. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s economy continued to power on to register a decade-long high of 7.08% while corporate earnings across the listed universe are likely to have surged by around 25% in 2018, on a market capitalization-weighted basis. Banking and property led the pack in terms of stock price performance but the way investors dumped construction and materials stocks caught us by surprise given their cyclical nature. Meanwhile, our views on the textile, fishery and automotive sectors proved accurate. Finally, mid-cap and large cap valuations did converge again driven more by a large cap de-rating than by a mid- cap re-rating. For 2019, the picture remains nuanced. We see growing headwinds for the global economy and lurking “black swan” risks. But the sharp correction in Vietnam’s stock market has rendered valuations rather appealing in light of continued strong earnings growth. We also see a marked shift away from momentum-driven investing and into a focus on both growth and value. However, in an environment of heightened global uncertainty and an ageing economic upcycle and equity bull market, we believe a sharp re-rating of Vietnam’s stock market is rather unlikely. Corporate earnings will decelerate this year from a high base last year but remain firmly in double-digit territory and this should carry the VN Index back towards the 1000 point psychological level. For all the bullishness out there on emerging markets, we rule out a miraculous resurrection of the bull market. However, value abounds and there has been no better time to double down on solid long-term bets on Vietnam’s fantastic growth story. Happy Investing! Sincerely, Anirban Lahiri Head of Institutional Business & Head of Research www.vndirect.com.vn 1 IN ALLIANCE WITH Navigating 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS STRATEGIST'S NOTE ................................................................................................................................................. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................. 4 VIETNAM ECONOMY: POWERING AHEAD THROUGH BUILDING HEADWINDS ................................................. 6 2018 REVIEW: ROBUST GROWTH AND MODERATE INFLATION ......................................................................... 6 High and broad-based economic growth .............................................................................................................. 6 Inflation dynamics changed but overall inflation rate remained contained due to government intervention 6 2019 OUTLOOK: VIETNAM’S GROWTH TO MODERATE ........................................................................................ 8 Global macro outlook: A synchronised slowdown is looming ........................................................................... 8 Vietnam macro outlook: Slightly Slower but Balanced Growth and Muted Inflation ........................................ 9 We see three key themes shaping the macro outlook in 2019: ......................................................................... 15 Theme #1: Could US-China trade tensions benefit Vietnam? We think so, barring a further escalation of trade tensions. ........................................................................................................................................................ 15 Theme #2: External pressures from Fed rate hikes should abate but China’s slowdown could pose headwinds to exports ............................................................................................................................................ 18 Theme #3: Could the domestic private sector become the next economic growth engine? Perhaps but don’t expect miracles. ............................................................................................................................................ 20 STOCK MARKET 2018 REVIEW: A BASS TONE AFTER HIGH NOTES ............................................................... 22 STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: TIME TO ROTATE INTO MORE HIGH QUALITY AND DEFENSIVE NAMES ...... 28 Market trends in 2019: We foresee a flight to quality. ........................................................................................ 29 VIETNAM OFFERS SUPERIOR PROSPECTS TO MSCI FRONTIER MARKETS AND SMALLER EMERGING MARKETS (EM).......................................................................................................................................................... 30 Most frontier markets are inferior to Vietnam, but Bangladesh is a notable rival ........................................... 32 BANKING: NEUTRAL OUTLOOK ON THE BACK OF TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICY ................................. 34 MILITARY BANK (MBB) ........................................................................................................................................... 49 VIETCOMBANK (VCB) ............................................................................................................................................ 51 ASIA COMMERCIAL JSB (ACB) - INITIATION ....................................................................................................... 53 VPBANK (VPB) ........................................................................................................................................................ 56 LIENVIET POST BANK (LPB) .................................................................................................................................. 58 REAL ESTATE: SUPPLYSIDE HEADWINDS DENTING TOPLINE GROWTH PROSPECTS ................................ 60 NAM LONG INVESTMENT CORP (NLG) ................................................................................................................ 69 VINHOMES JSC (VHM) ........................................................................................................................................... 73 CONSTRUCTION: SLOWDOWN IN INFRA AND RESIDENTIAL SEGMENT BUT INDUSTRIAL AND NON- RESIDENTIAL BUILDING SHOW VIGOR ................................................................................................................. 76 COTECCONS JSC (CTD) ........................................................................................................................................ 81 CONSTRUCTION STEEL: SUPPLYSIDE CONSOLIDATION TO GATHER PACE ................................................ 83 HOA PHAT GROUP JSC (HPG) .............................................................................................................................. 87 CONSUMER: SLOWER BUT ROCK SOLID GROWTH ........................................................................................... 89 QUANG NGAI SUGAR (QNS) ............................................................................................................................... 101 www.vndirect.com.vn 2 IN ALLIANCE WITH Navigating 2019 PHU NHUAN JEWELRY (PNJ) .............................................................................................................................. 103 MOBILE WORLD INVESTMENT CORP (MWG) ................................................................................................... 105 VIETTEL POST (VTP) ............................................................................................................................................ 107 AUTOMOTIVE: RECOVERY TO GO INTO FULL GEAR........................................................................................ 109 VEAM CORP (VEA) ............................................................................................................................................... 115 AVIATION: A FANTASTIC LONG-TERM STORY DESPITE NEAR TERM HEADWINDS .................................... 117 AIRPORTS CORPORATION OF VIETNAM (ACV) ............................................................................................... 125 POWER: GROWTH WITH DEFENSIVE ATTRIBUTES .......................................................................................... 127 POWER CONSTRUCTION JSC NO.1 (PC1)