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Thailandpolitics 0319 Ws Thailand: Par for the Coups Military coups and martial law usually make for nervous investors and jittery markets. But in Thailand, here’s why panic tends not to ensue. Bangkok SET Index 2019 2000 General 201 elections 2008 .LQJ%KXPLERO announced 1800 $GXO\DGHM • People’s Alliance for GLHV 1997 Democracy 3$' 1600 closes twointernational Asian Financial Crisis airports 1400 • Constitutional court disolves three 1200 coalition parties 1000 2014 2001 • Protesters stage Thaksin’s Thai Rak Bangkok “shutdown” 800 Thai Party 757 • General election wins election • M ilitary coup 600 2006 2011 400 1991 Military coup Pheu Thai 37 3arty Military coup winsgeneral election 200 2007 People’s Power Party 333 wins election 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Sources: Bloomberg, Matthews Asia Thailand's propensity for coups stems largely from the leading role its military has long played in its politics. In 2014, Thailand saw its 12th coup d'état (not counting several unsuccessful attempts) since the absolute monarchy was replaced in the 1930s. Subdued market reaction is not what might be expected but business in Thailand has typically remained untarnished by political unrest, which for the most part has been non-violent in this Buddhist nation. The military has also been a constant presence and Thailand’s late King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who was widely revered, was long a stabilizing force that encouraged rival Party Games: Deciphering factions to settle disputes. Thailand’s Political Players Progress toward this Southeast Asian nation’s long-delayed elections is also PAD: The People's Alliance for Democracy, more on the horizon. On March 24, 2019, Thailand is scheduled to hold its rst commonly known as the Yellow Shirts is a Thai political group. It was originally a coalition of democratic election since the military coup in 2014 and its rst general protesters against Thaksin Shinawatra, the former election in nine years. This should support a transition back to a democratic Prime Minister of Thailand. PAD was a chief player in the Thai political crises of 2005 and 2008. regime that may give Thailand greater legitimacy among its global peers TRT: The Thai Rak Thai Party was once the ruling Military oversight will be part of the country’s governance for at least the party under Thaksin. Founded in 1998 and next ve years, due to an appointed, military-backed Senate. A strong dissolved in 2007. showing by the military would likely buoy the stock market as this would PPP: The People's Power Party, a now defunct pro-Thaksin party, preceded the Pheu Thai Party. be a status quo, pro-growth scenario that tends to result in increased Dissolved in 2008. private investment, business and consumer condence, and accelerated PT: The Pheu Thai Party is the current vehicle of implementation of infrastructure projects. Should election results be the Shinawatra family, which won Thailand’s past unclear, a period of uncertainty may ensue, which could trigger weaker four consecutive elections. consumer and business sentiment and continued investment stasis. DP: The Democrat Party represents the Thai establishment. DP and PT are opposition Despite its politically driven short-term volatility, Thailand’s economy has heavyweights in upcoming elections. been resilient. As the chart (above) illustrates, the country’s economic PPRP: The Palang Pracharat Party is a newly growth has helped CPPTU Thailand’s stock market nearly 5X over the past formed party that represents the interests of the Thai military junta. two decadesTUBSUJOHGSPN © 2019 Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 192.168.160.10 on 09/27/2021 The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Investments involve risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate uctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. There is no guarantee that a company will continually increase or pay a dividend. Investing in small-cap companies is generally riskier than investing in large-cap companies due to greater volatility and less liquidity. Important Information Matthews Asia is the brand for Matthews International Capital Management, LLC and its direct and indirect subsidiaries. The information contained herein has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation, but no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of this information. Matthews Asia and its afliates do not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information. The views and information discussed herein are as of the date of publication, are subject to change and may not reect current views. The views expressed represent an assessment of market conditions at a specic point in time, are opinions only and should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding a particular investment or markets in general. Such information does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell specic securities or investment vehicles. This document does not constitute investment advice or an offer to provide investment advisory or investment management services, or the solicitation of an offer to provide investment advisory or investment management services, in any jurisdiction in which an offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced in any form or transmitted to any person without authorization from the issuer. © 2019 Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. S/ Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 192.168.160.10 on 09/27/2021.
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