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Conformity Analysis Adopted September 15, 2016 Developed As Conformity Analysis Adopted September 15, 2016 Developed as part of the Sacramento Area Council of Governments’: 2016 Metropolitan Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy Amendment #1 and Adoption of the 2017-20 Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program SACOG STAFF Renée DeVere-Oki, Team Manager for Regional Air Quality Planning Binu Abraham, Project Coordinator for Regional Air Quality Planning Gordon Garry, Director of Research and Analysis Clint Holtzen, Transportation Planner José Luis Cáceres, Transportation Planner Conformity Analysis - Page 1 of 146 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 1 Conformity Requirements ..................................................................................................................... 1 Conformity Tests ................................................................................................................................... 2 Findings of the Conformity Analysis .................................................................................................... 3 Conformity Determination for the 2016 Metropolitan Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy Amendment #1 and the 2017-20 Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Overview of the Physical Environment ................................................................................................. 5 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Background ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Conformity Approach ............................................................................................................................ 8 Financial Constraint .............................................................................................................................. 8 Inclusion of all Federal and Regionally Significant Projects ................................................................ 9 Latest Planning Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 10 Land Use Assumptions ........................................................................................................................ 10 Transportation System ......................................................................................................................... 11 Latest Emissions Model ...................................................................................................................... 12 Modeling Documentation .................................................................................................................... 13 Air Quality Emissions Analysis .......................................................................................................... 14 Years of Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 15 Analysis Techniques ........................................................................................................................ 15 Emission Calculations ......................................................................................................................... 17 Emissions Budget Test for Ozone (ROG and NOx) ........................................................................ 17 Emissions Budget Test for Carbon Monoxide (CO) ........................................................................ 17 Emission Forecasts for the Sutter Buttes Ozone Unclassified/attainment Area .............................. 17 Emissions Budget Test for PM10 ..................................................................................................... 18 Conformity Analysis - Page 2 of 146 INTERIM BASELINE Test for the Sacramento PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ................................. 18 Emissions Budget Test for the Yuba City-Marysville PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ......................... 19 Implementation of Transportation Control Measures ......................................................................... 19 Public Participation Process ................................................................................................................ 19 Resolution of Approval for the 2016 MTP/SCS Amendment #1 and the 2017-20 MTIP .................. 20 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 20 Conformity Analysis - Page 3 of 146 APPENDICES Appendix A: Conformity Checklist Appendix B: Transportation Project Listing Non-Exempt Project Listing Exempt Project Listing Eastern Solano County Project Listing Appendix C: Conformity Analysis Documentation Figure1-Air Quality Conformity Geographies by Nonattainment Area Table 1-SACOG Air Quality Conformity Emissions Analysis Table 2-Population and Employment Assumptions, and VMT Estimates Table 3-Emission Estimates for Ozone Conformity Analysis Table 4- Ozone Conformity Analysis Table 5-Carbon Monoxide Conformity Analysis Table 6a-PM10 Emissions Estimates and Conformity Test Table 6b-Paved Dust Calculation Table 6c-Road Construction Dust Emission Rates Table 6d-Road Construction Dust Seasonal (Winter) Table 7A- PM2.5 Emissions Estimates and Conformity Test Table 7B- PM2.5 Conformity Analysis for Yuba City‐Marysville Area Table 8-Air Quality Conformity Assumptions Appendix D: Timely Implementation Documentation for Transportation Control Measures Appendix E: Charge of the RPP Appendix F: Resolution of Adoption and Public Notice Resolution of Adoption Public Notice Appendix G: Response to Public Comments Conformity Analysis - Page 4 of 146 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) is the designated Metropolitan Planning Agency for the Sacramento Region and is responsible for all regional transportation planning activities in Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba Counties, and in El Dorado and Placer Counties outside of the Tahoe Basin. For purposes of conformity, SACOG is responsible for the analysis of transportation activities in that area and in eastern Solano County. Presented in this report is the Conformity Analysis for the 2016 Metropolitan Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy Amendment #1 (2016 MTP/SCS #1) and the 2017-20 Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program (MTIP). The conformity demonstration requirement is described in the Clean Air Act Section 176(c) (42 U.S.C. 7506(c)) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transportation conformity regulations (40 CFR 93 Subpart A). Transportation conformity ("conformity") is a way to ensure that Federal funding and approval goes to those transportation activities that are consistent with air quality goals set for ozone, carbon monoxide, particulate matter, or nitrogen dioxide. The analysis presented in this report demonstrates that the 2016 MTP/SCS #1 and the MTIP meet the criteria specified in these regulations. CONFORMITY REQUIREMENTS Conformity must be demonstrated in “all nonattainment and maintenance areas for transportation-related pollutants for which the area is designated nonattainment or has a maintenance plan” (40 CFR 93.102). The following are the designations within the Sacramento region: • 2008 8-Hour Ozone (including the ROG and NOx precursors) Severe-15 Nonattainment Area: o The Sacramento Metropolitan Area (Sacramento, Yolo and portions of El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Solano Counties) and o The Sutter Buttes Area (Sutter County). The 2008 ozone standards classify the Sutter Buttes Area as an unclassified/attainment area for ozone, effective July 20, 2013. Conformity Analysis - Page 5 of 146 • Carbon Monoxide (CO) Maintenance Area (urbanized area of Sacramento and portions of Yolo and Placer Counties) • Particulate Matter (PM10) Maintenance Area (Sacramento County) • 2006 Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Nonattainment Area and Maintenance Area: o Nonattainment Areas - Sacramento Area (Sacramento and portions of Yolo, Solano, Placer and El Dorado Counties) o Maintenance Area -Yuba City-Marysville Area (Sutter and a portion of Yuba County) Under a determination of conformity, the following criteria are applied: 1. The latest planning assumptions and emission models are used. 2. The transportation plan and program pass an emissions budget test using a budget that has been found adequate or been approved by EPA or an interim emissions test where budgets have not been established. 3. The transportation plan and program provide for the timely implementation of transportation control measures (TCMs). 4. Interagency and public consultation is part of the process. SACOG follows the interagency review process described in SACOG’s Public Participation Plan. The dedicated interagency forum for this process is the monthly Regional Planning Partnership meeting. Upon reaching a determination finding that is approved by SACOG’s Board, the conformity analysis is submitted to Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration (FTA) for final approval. The Conformity Checklist developed
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