THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Radical Islam in East Africa Angel Rabasa Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-4519-5 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover photo courtesy of AP Images/Mohamed Sheikh Nor. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Historically, Africa has not been a central theater in U.S. strategic plan- ning. U.S. interests there have been viewed as marginal, and the threats to those interests have not been considered serious enough to require the deployment of significant resources or policy attention. In recent years, however, Africa has come to be regarded as an increasingly important region, where American geopolitical interests and the potential threats to those interests are both on the rise. Consequently, the Department of Defense is abandoning its traditional policy of strategic minimalism in favor of a more robust approach, signified most prominently by the establishment of a unified combatant command for Africa. This monograph is part of a broader study of U.S. security roles in sub-Saharan Africa that is meant to inform ongoing efforts to restruc- ture the U.S. military command arrangements in Africa and to pos- ture air and space capabilities, as well as other U.S. government assets, to more effectively protect and advance American national interests on the continent. The monograph deals with the rising threat to U.S. interests represented by the spread of militant Islamism and the devel- opment of radical Islamist networks in East Africa. Equally impor- tant, however, it seeks to place those trends in the broad context of the diverse currents of Islamic practice in the region and the social, eco- nomic, and political factors that have shaped the security environment in East Africa. The monograph examines the complex ethno-religious landscape in East Africa, the characteristics of the East African environment that have produced failed or weak states susceptible to exploitation by iii iv Radical Islam in East Africa extremist groups, and the factors that have contributed to the emer- gence of these groups. It concludes with a series of recommendations for countering or mitigating the effects of adverse trends and protect- ing U.S. interests in East Africa. The research for this study was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael A. Snodgrass, USAF, who until the fall of 2007 served as Director of Plans, Programs, and Analyses at Headquarters United States Air Forces in Europe (USAFE/A5/A8). It is part of a project entitled “U.S. Security Roles in Africa,” led by Adam Grissom, and was carried out in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. Research for this project was completed in October 2007. The book should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in Afri- can security issues and politico-religious trends in the Muslim world. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Al-Qaeda in East Africa ......................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Characteristics of East African Environment Conducive to a Jihadist Presence .................................................................. 7 Weak Governance and Collapsed States ........................................ 8 Alternative Power Centers ........................................................16 Prevalence of the Informal Economy ...........................................19 Porous Borders .................................................................... 20 Widespread Access to Illegal Weapons .........................................21 Proximity to the Arabian Peninsula............................................ 22 Operational Access to Attack Venues .......................................... 22 CHAPTER THREE The Ethno-Religious Landscape of East Africa ............................25 Country Analysis ................................................................. 27 Sudan ............................................................................ 27 Somalia and Djibouti ...........................................................29 v vi Radical Islam in East Africa Ethiopia and Eritrea ............................................................33 The Swahili Coast .............................................................. 34 Muslim-State Relations on the Swahili Coast ............................. 36 CHAPTER FOUR The Growth of Radical Islam ..................................................39 Ideological Infiltration ........................................................... 40 Islamic Charities ..................................................................41 Catalytic Events: The Islamist-Military Coup in Sudan and the Collapse of the Somali State ............................................... 44 Radicalization in Sudan ....................................................... 46 Sudan Counterterrorism Posture After 9/11 .................................51 Somalia: Al-Ittihad al-Islami ..................................................53 The Rise of the Islamic Courts Union .......................................55 The ICU’s Relationship to the AIAI ......................................... 56 The ICU’s Rule in Mogadishu (May–December 2006) ...................58 Trends in Post-ICU Somalia .....................................................63 Other Al-Qaeda-Linked Networks .............................................69 CHAPTER FIVE Countering Terrorism in East Africa .........................................71