1st IEEE 5G World Forum Roadmap Applications & Services Workgroup: 5G is Power Starved Brian Zahnstecher, Principal, IEEE Senior Member Chair, SF Bay IEEE Power Electronics Society (PELS) Power Content Owner, IEEE 5G Initiative Roadmap, Application Services Workgroup Co-chair, IEEE 5G Initiative Webinar Chair, IEEE 5G Energy Efficiency Tutorial [email protected] +1 (508) 847-5747 PowerRox™ www.powerrox.com Twitter: @PowerRoxLLC LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/zahnstecher Monday, July 9, 2018 DISCLAIMER

There is neither any sponsored promotion nor bias toward any of the products/organizations mentioned in this tutorial.

Any vendor-specific content is provided for example purposes only.

2 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. OVERVIEW • Marketing Projections Vs. Reality • What is the power gap? • Power Sources Vs. Loads • Making the Projections a Reality • Summary / Conclusions

3 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Market Projections Vs. Reality • Network Usage Projections . How do these translate to load projections? . Which components ARE Moore’s Law Like? o Which are NOT? 54% YoY growth!!!

IMAGES CREDIT: "Ericsson Mobility Report 2018," Ericsson, June 2018. 4 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Market Projections Vs. Reality • Network Usage Projections . How will shifts in global usage markets impact the availability of power? . Is WW power projected to grow on the same trajectory?

IMAGES CREDIT: "Estimated U.S. Energy Net Generation 1950-2018," US EIA, July 2018.

IMAGES CREDIT: "Ericsson Mobility Report 2018," Ericsson, June 2018. 5 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Market Projections Vs. Reality • User Usage Projections . How many devices will be out there?

IMAGE CREDIT: CYALKIT-E02 Solar-Powered BLE Sensor Reference Design Kit (RDK) = . What counts as a device? http://www.cypress.com/documentation/development-kitsboards/cyalkit-e02-solar-powered- ble-sensor-beacon-reference-design . What are these devices depending on for their power source? . Are future projections aligned with today’s leading-edge or tomorrow’s?

IMAGE CREDIT: M. Dunham, "Chip Scale Thermoelectric Generator for Smart Agriculture," IMAGE CREDIT: http://wehavemovedtousa.blogspot.com/2010_10_01_archive.html Analog Devices, APEC 2018 Industry Session, San Antonio, TX, March 6, 2018. IMAGE CREDIT: https://www.phonegg.com/phone/2853- Apple-iPhone-5-GSM-A1428-16GB 6 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Market Projections Vs. Reality • What constitutes a device? Or thing? Or mote? . 20-50B IoT Devices, 1T IoT Devices?!?...A REALLY Big Number o Not getting into IoT semantics here, but most folks agree there will be a whole lot of devices, sensor networks, etc. connected to some form of web/cloud interface. o A battery is commonly the limiting factor so the more energy that can be harvested from an ambient source, the more sensor/IoT device applications are enabled. 1T too LOW a number???

That is a lot of stuff for a non-bionic being!

7 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. What is the power gap? • The Energy Gap . Technology Needs to Catch-up with Projections to Become A Reality

…and the gap is widening.

IMAGE CREDIT: Dr. Gee Rittenhouse, "Green Networks," Alcatel-Lucent GreenTouch, April 2012.

8 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. What is the power gap? • 1000x Traffic • 10-1000x Number of Devices • Availability of Power • Sustainability of Power • Impact to Global Power Footprint

IMAGE CREDIT: A. Abrol and R. K. Jha, "Power Optimization in 5G Networks: A Step Towards GrEEn Communication," in • Impact to Global Carbon Footprint IEEE Access, vol. 4, pp. 1355-1374, 2016.

Indirect, but makes a big difference!

IMAGE CREDIT: "Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report," Ericsson, June 2014. 9 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Power Sources Vs. Loads • The Energy Big Picture

2/3 “Waste”

IMAGE CREDIT: "Estimated U.S. Energy Consumption in 2017," Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, March 2018.

10 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Power Sources Vs. Loads • Network Power Sources . Batteries . Power Plants

. Micro/Nanogrids IMAGE CREDIT: Chen Xu, Xudong Wang and Zhong Lin Wang, "Nanowire Structured Hybrid Cell for Concurrently Scavenging Solar and Mechanical Energies", J. Am. Chem. Soc., 131(2009) 5866-5872. . Energy Harvesting . Energy Storage

IMAGE CREDIT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niederaussem_Power_Station IMAGE CREDIT: Berman, B. (Producer), & The Wachowski Brothers (Director). (1999). The Matrix [Motion Picture]. United States: Warner Bros. IMAGE CREDIT: Joshua Israelsohn, "Any way the wind blows....," ECN Magazine, July 21, 2014. 11 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Power Sources Vs. Loads • Network Power Sources . US Annual Output Quad = quadrillion BTUs = ~293 TWh o 2017 = 97.7 Quads (~16.6% of WW Output) . WW Annual Output o 2017 = 589 Quads [baseline] o 2020 (projected) = 605 Quads [+2.7%] o 2030 (projected) = 663 Quads [+12.6%] . Telco Total Consumption = <1% WW o Data Center Consumption = ~20% WW

IMAGE CREDIT: "Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report," Ericsson, June 2013. 12 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Power Sources Vs. Loads • Network Power Loads . Base Stations . IT Equipment . UEs

IMAGE CREDIT: "Crossing the Chasm: Small Cells Industry November 2015," Smart Cell Forum, November 2015.

IMAGE CREDIT: http://uiconstock.com/wp- content/uploads/2015/11/Free-Billboard-Mockup.jpg

IMAGE CREDIT: James Cameron (Producer), & James Cameron (Director). (1991). Terminator 2: Judgment Day [Motion Picture]. United States: Carolco Pictures

IMAGE CREDIT: https://www.flickr.com/photos/ubiquisys/5428267528/

IMAGE CREDIT: CDMA - Wikipedia, 2016. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDMA_spectral_efficiency. IMAGES CREDIT: http://tricorder.xprize.org/ 13 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Power Sources Vs. Loads • Network Power Loads . Napkin Calcs o (1) = ~10 Wh/day = 3.65 kWh/year (3B) = ~11 TW/year (6B) Smartphones = ~22 TW/year o (1) IoT Device = ~10 mWh/day = 3.65 Wh/year (30B) Devices = ~0.11 TW/year (50B) Devices = ~0.18 TW/year (1T) Devices = ~3.7 TW/year o RF Transceiving Tx power = 2-4 orders of magnitude larger than Rx power Base Stations = 10-1000W, 40-60% overall efficiencies o Utility Distribution 5-15% loss in getting power from generation to load

14 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Base Stations . Biggest Chunk of the Pie Take note of the major differences here.

Holy smokes!!! (and this info is even a little dated)

IMAGE CREDIT: "Energy efficiency analysis of the reference systems, areas of improvements and target breakdown," EARTH, Deliverable D2.3 v2.00, January 31, 2012. IMAGE CREDIT: Dr. Gee Rittenhouse, "Green Wireless Networks," Alcatel-Lucent GreenTouch, April 2012. 15 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Intelligent Power Management (IPM) . Applies to Entire Network . More Adaptable to Real-Time Power Markets • Dynamic Base Station Power . Smaller Power = More Dynamic . React to Real-Time Traffic, Not Statistical Traffic Patterns . Analog-to-Digital (ADC): Number of Bits Vs. Sampling Rate • Radio Frequency (RF) Power Amplifier (PA) Optimization . mm-wave / Massive Multi-Input Multi-Output (mMIMO) . Envelope Tracking

16 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Base Stations . Biggest Opportunities for Improvement o PA Biggest Chunk of the Biggest Chunk

IMAGE CREDIT: Alsharif, M.H., Kim, J., Kim, J.H., "Green and Sustainable Cellular Base Stations: An Overview and Future Research Directions," Energies 2017, 10, 587. 17 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Lots of Hops, Lots of Opportunities for Consolidation

IMAGE CREDIT: "Backhaul technologies for small cells: Use cases, requirements and solutions," Smart Cell Forum, February 2013. 18 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Network-Level Efficiency Improvements . GreenTouch Consortium Green Meter Research Study o "The study concluded that it is possible through the combination of technologies, architectures, components, algorithms and protocols to reduce the net energy consumption in end-to-end communications networks by up to 98% by 2020 compared to the 2010 reference scenario defined by GreenTouch.“ "10,000-fold increase of energy efficiency in mobile access networks" "254-fold increase in energy efficiency in residential fixed access networks" "316-fold increase in energy efficiency in core networks"

IMAGE CREDIT: "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, August 15, 2015. 19 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Network-Level Efficiency Improvements . GreenTouch Consortium Green Meter Research Study o Network Equipment Power Reductions

IMAGE CREDIT: "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, August 15, 2015. 20 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Network-Level Efficiency Improvements . GreenTouch Consortium Green Meter Research Study o Network Equipment Power Reductions

IMAGE CREDIT: "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, August 15, 2015. IMAGE CREDIT: "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, August 15, 2015.

Power optimization adapted for known load behaviors.

IMAGES CREDIT: "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, August 15, 2015. 21 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Network-Level Efficiency Improvements . GreenTouch Consortium Green Meter Research Study o Network Equipment Power Reductions Quantifying the Possibilities

Wow, amazing improvement opportunities, even with dramatic traffic growth predictions!!!

IMAGES CREDIT: "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, August 15, 2015. 22 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Network-Level Efficiency Improvements . GreenTouch Consortium Green Meter Research Study o Resources/Tools Tons of Overview Materials = http://greentouch.org • Green Meter White Paper GWATT Calculator (Network-Level Simulation) = http://alu-greentouch-dev.appspot.com/

IMAGES CREDIT: "GWATT - Visualizing the GreenTouch Results," GreenTouch Celebration, GreenTouch Foundation, June 18, 2015. 23 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Network-Level Efficiency Improvements . GreenTouch Consortium Green Meter Research Study o Resources/Tools IMEC Base Station (BS) Simulator/Calculator = https://www.imec-int.com/powermodel

IMAGE CREDIT: "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, GreenTouch Foundation, August 15, 2015. 24 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Network-Level Efficiency Improvements . Other Industry Efforts / Consortiums o EARTH o OPERA (GreenTouch) o Major Industry Partners

IMAGE CREDIT: "Energy efficiency analysis of the reference systems, areas of improvements and target breakdown," EARTH, Deliverable D2.3 v2.00, January 31, 2012.

IMAGE CREDIT: Nokia AirScale Solution = https://networks.nokia.com/solutions/energy-solutions 25 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Device-to-Device (D2D) Communications . Analogous to Mesh Networks . Mitigate the Transmission • Peak Shaving . Size Infrastructure for the Average, Not the Peak . Localized Energy Storage IMAGE CREDIT: Z. Bojkovic, M. Bakmaz, B. Bakmaz, "On the Road to Energy Efficient 5G Mobile Networks" Recent Advances on Systems, Signals, Control, Communications and • Edge Buffering Computers, pp. 137-140, 2015. . Mitigate the Transmission PEAK SHAVING . Leverage & Re-use

IMAGE CREDIT: Virtual Power Systems VPS ICE Console Screen Shot. http://www.virtualpowersystems.com/our-platform. 26 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Simultaneous Wireless Information & Power Transfer (SWIPT) . Optimize Intelligence for Data & Power Simultaneously • Relays . Save Power, Be Secure, & Scavenge Energy Simultaneously • Energy Harvesting . Scavenge Energy from All Physical Sources . Supplement Battery Life . Energy Independence = Security . Low Power = Security • Software-Defined / Virtualized Everything (SDx / Vx)

27 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Energy Harvesting . Utilizing every µW available. “There is no such thing as waste heat…just underutilized energy recycling opportunities.” – Brian Zahnstecher

IMAGES CREDIT: V. Micelli, "Pavegen - The Future of Urban Energy," IDTechEx US Show, Santa Clara, CA, Nov 17, 2016.

IMAGE CREDIT: D. Hess, "Truly Transparent Power," IDTechEx US Show, Santa Clara, CA, Nov 17, 2016. 28 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Making the Projections a Reality • Energy Harvesting . Even IC-level

IMAGE CREDIT: B. Chen, J. Cornett, "Chip Scale TEG and its Use for a Wireless Machine Health Monitoring System," Analog Devices, APEC 2017 Industry Session, Tampa, FL, March 30, 2017.

IMAGES CREDIT: M. Dunham, "Chip Scale Thermoelectric Generator for Smart Agriculture," Analog Devices, APEC 2018 Industry Session, San Antonio, TX, March 6, 2018.

29 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Summary / Conclusions • All the awesome applications enabled by the many enhanced specs and features of the 5G network provide many power challenges as well as opportunities. • There exists a large gap between projections of energy utilization and how energy is produced/utilized for things on the 5G network. • If you are talking dramatic growth of edge power representing only ~1% of WW energy pie today, has much greater overall impact to global power needs. • The biggest consumer of network power is also the biggest opportunity for power savings. • Many of needs have been identified, data collected, tools provided. • Energy harvesting can play a big role in all aspects of the network.

30 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. Q & A

Thanks a lot for your time and attention! Any questions and/or comments?

31 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. References • "Ericsson Mobility Report 2018," Ericsson, June 2018. • "Estimated U.S. Energy Net Generation 1950-2018," US EIA, July 2018. • "Estimated U.S. Energy Net Generation for All Sectors, Monthly," US EIA, July 2018. • Dr. Gee Rittenhouse, "Green Wireless Networks," Alcatel-Lucent GreenTouch, April 2012. • A. Abrol and R. K. Jha, "Power Optimization in 5G Networks: A Step Towards GrEEn Communication," in IEEE Access, vol. 4, pp. 1355-1374, 2016. • "Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report," Ericsson, June 2014. • "Estimated U.S. Energy Consumption in 2017," Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, March 2018. • "International Energy Outlook 2017," U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 14, 2017. • "Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report," Ericsson, June 2013. • "Crossing the Chasm: Small Cells Industry November 2015," Smart Cell Forum, November 2015. • Dr. Gee Rittenhouse, "Green Wireless Networks," Alcatel-Lucent GreenTouch, April 2012. • "Energy efficiency analysis of the reference systems, areas of improvements and target breakdown," EARTH, Deliverable D2.3 v2.00, January 31, 2012. • Alsharif, M.H., Kim, J., Kim, J.H., "Green and Sustainable Cellular Base Stations: An Overview and Future Research Directions," Energies 2017, 10, 587. • "Backhaul technologies for small cells: Use cases, requirements and solutions," Smart Cell Forum, February 2013. • "GreenTouch Final Results from Green Meter Research Study," A GreenTouch White Paper, Version 2.0, GreenTouch Foundation, August 15, 2015. • "GWATT - Visualizing the GreenTouch Results," GreenTouch Celebration, GreenTouch Foundation, June 18, 2015. • IMEC Base Station (BS) Simulator/Calculator = https://www.imec-int.com/powermodel

32 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT. References • "Energy efficiency analysis of the reference systems, areas of improvements and target breakdown," EARTH, Deliverable D2.3 v2.00, January 31, 2012. • Nokia AirScale Solution = https://networks.nokia.com/solutions/energy-solutions • Z. Bojkovic, M. Bakmaz, B. Bakmaz, "On the Road to Energy Efficient 5G Mobile Networks" Recent Advances on Systems, Signals, Control, Communications and Computers, pp. 137-140, 2015. • Virtual Power Systems VPS ICE Console Screen Shot. http://www.virtualpowersystems.com/our-platform. • V. Micelli, "Pavegen - The Future of Urban Energy," IDTechEx US Show, Santa Clara, CA, Nov 17, 2016. • D. Hess, "Truly Transparent Power," IDTechEx US Show, Santa Clara, CA, Nov 17, 2016. • B. Chen, J. Cornett, "Chip Scale TEG and its Use for a Wireless Machine Health Monitoring System," Analog Devices, APEC 2017 Industry Session, Tampa, FL, March 30, 2017. • M. Dunham, "Chip Scale Thermoelectric Generator for Smart Agriculture," Analog Devices, APEC 2018 Industry Session, San Antonio, TX, March 6, 2018.

33 ALL INFORMATION SHALL BE CONSIDERED SPEAKER PROPERTY UNLESS OTHERWISE SUPERSEDED BY ANOTHER DOCUMENT.