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Siili Solutions Corporate Research Siili Solutions NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED IN, OR TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO, THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA OR IN ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. Results Analysis IT/Technology Finland 28 October 2020 Core also affected by COVID-19 For Siili, the negative impacts of COVID-19 materialised later than we had expected. However, our investment case remains intact and despite the COVID volatility the long-term outlook remains attractive for digital IT services. As a medium-sized player with a clear digital focus, Siili remains in a good position to capture its share of a growing market. Having cut our estimates, we reduce our fair value range to EUR 13-15. Key Data (2020E) Price (EUR) 11.70 Growth slowed down on COVID and Siili Auto Reuters SIILI.HE After very resilient H1 performance, Siili’s Core operations were hit by the effects SIILI FH Bloomberg of COVID-19. With customers downsizing projects and holding back on launching Market cap (EURm) 82 new projects, the growth in Siili Core flattened and the negative impact hit later Market cap (USDm) 97 than we had assumed. However, we remind that Q3 is a seasonally quiet quarter Market cap (EURm) 82 from which we cannot draw far-reaching conclusions. We also remain confident Net debt (EURm) (3) that demand on the Automotive side will cheer up after few months of normalised Net gearing (10%) Net debt/EBITDA (x) (0.3) car sales and that growth will normalise in 2021. Shares fully dil. (m) 7.0 More on new strategy in touch with the CMD on 3 November Avg daily turnover (m) 0.0 Siili is reshaping its strategy. It aims to accelerate its international growth and Free float 52% focus on developing the digital experience. We continue to believe that the digital transformation market continues to grow rapidly. Although COVID-19 may cause temporary hiccups it will in the end create more demand for digital services. Accelerating international growth may come at the cost of profitability. However, we wait for the company to say more about the plan at next week’s capital markets day before making any judgements. Estimate Revisions (%) Fair value range down to EUR 13-15 2020E 2021E 2022E Revenues (4) (7) (7) We have cut our 2020 and 2021 EBITA estimates by 12% and 10% respectively. Adj. EBIT (15) (12) (7) However, we find the company should benefit from market growth and hence our Adj. EPS (12) (10) (6) long-term estimates remain broadly intact. Our DCF valuation is slightly down to EUR 15 and we cut our fair value range by EUR 1.0 to EUR 13-15. Share Price (12M) Financials (EUR) Year end: Dec 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 15 Revenues (m) 70 81 84 90 98 13 Adj. EBIT 2 4 5 7 9 11 Pre-tax profit (m) 2 3 7 6 8 EPS 0.23 0.36 0.85 0.69 0.94 9 Adj. EPS 0.35 0.57 0.65 0.89 1.14 7 DPS 0.23 0.36 0.35 0.45 0.50 5 Revenue growth (%) 21.7 14.4 3.9 7.1 9.1 Oct Dec Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Adj. EBIT growth (%) (50.8) 51.3 20.6 44.5 33.0 Adj. EPS growth (%) (43.4) 62.3 14.2 36.9 28.3 Absolute (green) / Relative to Finland (purple). Adj. EBIT margin (%) 3.5 4.6 5.4 7.3 8.8 ROE (%) 7.8 12.7 26.6 19.2 23.5 ROCE (%) 9.0 10.4 11.6 16.8 22.6 Marketing communication commissioned by: PER (x) 23.0 16.0 17.9 13.1 10.2 Free cash flow yield (%) 2.2 10.1 8.8 8.3 10.6 Siili Solutions Dividend yield (%) 2.8 3.9 3.0 3.8 4.3 P/BV (x) 2.89 3.10 3.42 3.11 2.75 EV/Sales (x) 0.86 0.86 0.95 0.84 0.71 EV/Adj. EBITDA (x) 14.6 9.8 9.5 7.3 5.6 EV/Adj. EBIT (x) 24.4 18.7 17.6 11.5 8.0 Operating cash flow/EV (%) 3.5 10.0 10.3 11.8 15.3 Net debt/Adj. EBITDA (x) 0.86 0.82 (0.30) (0.67) (0.99) Source for all data on this page: SEB (estimates) and Millistream/Thomson Reuters (prices) research.sebgroup.com/corporate Important. All disclosure information can be found on pages 11 – 13 of this document Results Analysis Marketing communication commissioned by: Siili Solutions 28 October 2020 2 Estimate changes Due to the relatively large deviation in Q3 sales our 2020 sales estimate is down by 4%. We also assume that COVID effects will weigh on H1/21 growth and thus cut our 2021 sales estimate by 7%. The company’s headcount is down 9% y/y and hence the negative sales impact should be mitigated on the EBITA line. Nevertheless, our EBITA estimates for 2020 and 2021 are down by 12% and 10%, respectively. Estimate changes New estimates Old estimates Difference (%) (EURm) 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E Sales 83.7 89.6 97.8 87.1 96.4 105.2 -3.9 -7.0 -7.0 EBITDA 8.3 10.3 12.5 9.1 11.2 13.2 -8.9 -8.1 -5.1 EBITA 5.9 7.9 10.1 6.7 8.8 10.7 -12.1 -10.3 -6.3 EBITA margin (%) 7.1 8.8 10.3 7.7 9.2 10.2 -0.7pp -0.3pp 0.1pp EBIT 4.5 6.5 8.6 5.3 7.4 9.3 -15.3 -12.3 -7.2 EPS 0.85 0.69 0.94 0.94 0.79 1.02 -9.8 -13.0 -7.5 Source: SEB Corporate Research NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED IN, OR TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO, THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA OR IN ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. Results Analysis Marketing communication commissioned by: Siili Solutions 28 October 2020 3 Valuation After our estimate downgrades our DCF valuation for Siili declines to EUR 15 (previously EUR 16). In our DCF horizon our sales estimates down slightly due to the negative short-term revisions (10-year CAGR of 6.5%), but we have kept our profitability estimates intact as we find no reason why Siili would not reach the industry profitability after few years’ of growth. Comparing Siili’s current valuation to small Nordic IT service providers we note that the EV/EBIT discount for 2020 has narrowed after our estimate downgrades. However, with a 2020E EV/EBITDA of 9.5x the company trades still with at a discount to peers’ median of 14.0x. We think that EV/EBITDA is a more reasonable multiple for Siili because purchase price amortizations dent EBIT. All in all, we lower our fair value range for Siili to EUR 13-15 (from EUR 14-16). DCF summary DCF valuation (EURm) Weighted average cost of capital (%) NPV of FCF in explicit forecast period 53 Risk free interest rate 2.5 NPV of continuing value 47 Risk premium 7.0 Value of operation 99 Cost of equity 9.5 Net debt (2) After tax cost of debt 1.8 Share issue/buy-back in forecast period - Value of associated companies - WACC 9.5 Value of minority shareholders' equity - Value of marketable assets - Assumptions DCF value of equity 102 Number of forecast years 10 DCF value per share (EUR) 15 EBIT margin - steady state (%) 8.1 Current share price (EUR) 12.25 EBIT multiple - steady state (x) 8.4 DCF performance potential (%) 19 Continuing value (% of NPV) 46.8 Source: SEB DCF assumption details Average Average Average (EURm) 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E year 6 year 7-8 year 9-10 Sales growth (%) 3.9 7.1 9.1 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.1 5.1 EBITDA margin (%) 10.0 11.5 12.8 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.0 EBIT margin (%) 5.4 7.3 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.6 Gross capital expenditures as % of sales (4.3) 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Working capital as % of sales (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) Sales 84 90 98 105 113 121 133 147 Depreciation (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) (3) (3) (4) Intangibles amortisation (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) EBIT 5 7 9 9 10 11 12 13 Taxes on EBIT (2) (2) (3) (3) (3) (4) (4) (4) Increase in deferred taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NOPLAT 4 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 Gross capital expenditure 4 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Increase in working capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow 10 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 ROIC (%) 10.6 14.5 18.5 20.6 23.5 26.9 33.0 41.5 ROIC-WACC (%) 1.1 5.0 9.0 11.1 14.0 17.4 23.5 32.0 Share of total net present value (%) 0.0 5.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.1 11.7 10.3 Source: SEB Corporate Research NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED IN, OR TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO, THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA OR IN ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL.
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