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South Wales Metro South East Wales (Additional Options) Outline Business Case South Wales Metro South East Wales (Additional Options) Outline Business Case 15 November 2019 Transport for Wales Mott MacDonald 2 Callaghan Square Cardiff CF10 5BT United Kingdom T +44 (0)29 2046 7800 F +44 (0)29 2047 1888 mottmac.com Transport for Wales Southgate House Wood Street South Wales Metro Cardiff CF10 1EW 402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C-0005 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-c6371/gs-se011/Shared South EastDocuments/Working/Revised Wales (Additional OBC Comments Options)11 19/402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C- Outline 0005 RevB.docx Business MottCase MacDonald 15 November 2019 Mott MacDonald Limited. Registered in England and Wales no. 1243967. Registered office: Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, Transport for Wales United Kingdom Mott MacDonald | South Wales Metro South East Wales (Additional Options) Outline Business Case Issue and Revision Record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A 23/10/2019 First Issue B 15/11/2019 Updated to TfW / WG comments Document reference: 402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C-0005 Information class: Standard This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose. We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. This Re por t has be en p rep are d solely for use by t he p arty w hich c om mission ed it (the 'Client') i n co nnecti on wit h the cap tione d p roject . It s hould not be used for any oth er p urp ose. N o p erso n ot her tha n th e Client or any party who has expr essly a gre ed t er ms of relia nce wit h us (the 'Recipie nt(s )') m ay r ely on the cont ent, info rma tion or any view s exp ress ed in the R epo rt. This R epo rt is co nfide ntial and c ont ains p rop riet ary in tellect ual p rop erty and we ac cept no duty of ca re, resp onsibility or li ability t o any oth er recipi ent o f this R epo rt. N o re pre sent ation , wa rran ty o r un dert aking , exp ress or i mplie d, is made an d no res ponsi bility or liability is acce pted by us to any p arty oth er t han the Cli ent or a ny Reci pient (s), as t o the accu racy or c om plete ness of th e info rm ation cont aine d in t his Rep ort. Fo r t he av oida nce o f do ubt t his Re port do es no t in any way pu rpo rt to includ e a ny leg al, ins ura nce or fin ancial advic e or opini on. 402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C-0005 | 15 November 2019 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-c6371/gs-se011/Shared Documents/Working/Revised OBC Comments 11 19/402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C- 0005 RevB.docx Mott MacDonald | South Wales Metro South East Wales (Additional Options) Outline Business Case Contents Executive summary 1 This study 1 Case for change 1 Recommendation 2 WelTAG Stage 2 OBC: Approach 3 The Strategic Case 3 Generation and development of the options 3 The Transport (Economic) Case 4 The Management Case 4 The Financial Case 4 The Commercial Case 5 1 Introduction 6 1.1 Context 6 1.2 Aims 6 1.3 Study area 7 1.4 Approach 8 1.5 Report structure 8 2 Strategic Case 10 2.1 Approach 10 2.2 Baseline headlines 10 Policy drivers 10 Review of baseline issues 11 2.3 Identified problems, constraints and aspirations 11 2.4 Case for change 13 2.5 Setting and confirmation of the objectives 13 2.6 Well-Being of Future Generations Act Requirement 17 2.7 Measures for Success 19 2.8 Summary of the Strategic Case 20 3 Option Development 22 3.1 Overall approach to option development 22 3.2 Aspirations, constraints and showstoppers 23 3.3 Option generation (stage 1) 24 3.4 Option selection criteria (stage 2) 27 3.5 Option longlisting (stage 3) 29 3.6 Initial short list identification (stage 4) 35 3.7 Additional Considerations 38 3.8 Summary of the Option Generation task 38 402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C-0005 | 15 November 2019 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-c6371/gs-se011/Shared Documents/Working/Revised OBC Comments 11 19/402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C- 0005 RevB.docx Mott MacDonald | South Wales Metro South East Wales (Additional Options) Outline Business Case 4 Transport (Economic) Case 39 4.1 Overall approach to the Transport Case 39 4.2 Approach to the economic appraisal 39 4.3 Economic appraisal 41 Economic appraisal – options 41 Economic appraisal – sensitivity tests 42 4.4 Assessment of environmental impacts 46 4.5 Assessment of social impacts 46 4.6 Summary of the Transport (Economic) Case 52 5 Management (Delivery) Case 53 5.1 Implementation planning 53 Work Streams 53 Project structure 53 5.2 Project programme 55 Critical path 56 Dependencies and key development sequence 56 Impacts of Delay 57 5.3 Project governance 57 5.4 Assurance and approvals 58 5.5 Stakeholder management and project communications 59 Stakeholder Management Plan 59 Stakeholder and public acceptability 60 5.6 Risk management 60 5.7 Benefits, monitoring and evaluation 63 5.8 Summary of the Management Case 63 6 Financial Case 64 6.1 Capital costs 64 6.2 Cost profile 65 6.3 Inflation assumptions 65 6.4 Optimism Bias, Contingencies and QRA 65 6.5 Operating costs 66 6.6 Passenger revenues 66 6.7 Funding arrangements 67 Cost estimation 67 Funding strategy 68 Accountancy implications 68 6.8 Summary of the Financial Case 72 7 Commercial Case 73 7.1 Overview 73 402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C-0005 | 15 November 2019 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-c6371/gs-se011/Shared Documents/Working/Revised OBC Comments 11 19/402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C- 0005 RevB.docx Mott MacDonald | South Wales Metro South East Wales (Additional Options) Outline Business Case 7.2 Output specification 73 7.3 Procurement strategy 74 Rail infrastructure 74 Rolling stock 74 Service provision 75 Programme 75 Risk allocation and transfer 75 7.4 Sourcing options 76 7.5 Financial transactions 76 7.6 Contract management 77 7.7 Summary of the Commercial Case 77 8 Conclusions and Recommendations 78 8.1 Principal conclusions 78 8.2 Recommended next steps 79 Glossary 80 402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C-0005 | 15 November 2019 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-c6371/gs-se011/Shared Documents/Working/Revised OBC Comments 11 19/402338-MMD-SE011-XX-RP-C- 0005 RevB.docx Mott MacDonald | South Wales Metro 1 South East Wales (Additional Options) Outline Business Case Executive summary The reopening of the Ebbw Vale Branch Line in 2008 has been a success story with a steady increase in the number of rail passengers from just over 100,000 in the first year to nearly 1m in 2017/18. This upward trend in demand has been reinforced by improvements such as new stations at Ebbw Vale Town and Pye Corner. The emergence of the South Wales Metro proposals together with the confirmation of the plans of the new Operator Developer Partner (ODP) agreement (operated by KeolisAmey and known as TfW Rail) represent a further step change in overall service improvement. The contracted improvements will see the introduction of a second train per hour on the Ebbw Vale line offering a new direct service to Newport, although the timing of the new services is dependent upon Network Rail in conjunction with the Welsh Government/Transport for Wales (TfW) delivering additional infrastructure works. Aspirations to improve the level of services on the Ebbw Vale Branch Line above this baseline have existed for several years and have been reinforced by aspirations 4 trains per hour to each Valley Head, exemplified by TfW’s recent consultation with both the relevant MP and AM, in both cases noted an aspiration to achieve 4tph from Ebbw Vale heading westwards only. This level of change may not be consistent with the ODP’s plans, however several studies to date examining permutations to improve services on the Ebbw Vale Branch Line have indicated some further benefits could be achieved, although there are several operational and infrastructure constraints that would have to be overcome. This study This WelTAG Stage 2 Outline Business Case (OBC) study seeks to build upon and consolidate the work to date, in particular the 2017 Eastern Valleys Outline Business Case. The OBC provides an assessment and a ‘forward map’ for the development of the following enhanced services: ● An increase from the committed 2 to 4 trains per hour (tph) on the Ebbw Vale line ● The reopening of the former branch line from Llanhilleth, with a new station in Abertillery ● At least 2 tph to each of Cardiff and Newport (with potential destinations west of Cardiff and east of Newport) To achieve this level of service, this study has explored options for extending services from Abertillery and Ebbw Vale to destinations east of Cardiff Central and west of Newport.
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