IN BRIEF

Tom Harrington [email protected] ITV Q1 2021 results Gill Hind gill [email protected] Returning to 2019 levels +44 (0)20 7851 0900

5 May 2021

Total advertising revenues were down 6% year-on-year in Q1, but strong expected growth in Q2 should ensure H1 is on par with 2019, and up 26% on 2020

Coming into the first quarter of this year—following the strong end to 2020—there was little market visibility of TV advertising revenues due to the possible impact of Brexit on advertisers' supply chains, and of course the effect of the pandemic over the winter. ITV reported total advertising revenues down just 6% year-on-year to £402 million, with the market being stronger than previously anticipated. Perhaps of greater interest, however, is the outlook ITV gave for April to June, given the 43% total advertising revenue decline ITV experienced last year as a direct result of COVID-19. In contrast April was up 68% while May and June are expected to be up at least 85%. While these are certainly buoyant figures, it should be noted that this would mean H1 2021 would be on par with 2019.

ITV has a strong programming schedule coming into the summer months with Love Island returning (although its location has yet to be finalised), along with the Euros—the tournament has three UK nations competing (including England v Scotland on ITV), and the major matches being played at Wembley. Further forward, ITV appears very confident that I'm a Celebrity… will return in some guise; COVID-related travel restrictions and Brexit-related visa headaches will combine to shape what is feasible for big formats normally produced offshore. While production of scripted programming continues at levels comparable with before the pandemic—although with a hit to margins of the added 10% of COVID expenses—it will probably not be until 2022 that we see large studio audiences. The next season of Britain's Got Talent has already been pushed to 2022. (Studios revenues were up 9% on 2020, to £374 million, but down 3% on 2019).

Figure 1: Year-on-year change in ITV total advertising revenue by month, 2020/21

100% 85-90% 85% 80% 68% 60%

40%

20% 8% 8% -1% -2% -1% 0% 6% 0% 3% 3% -9% -20% -15% -23% -40% -42% -42% -60% -46% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May† Jun†

†"Total advertising...will be up around...". Note: includes ITV Family NAR, online VOD and sponsorship. [Source: ITV, Enders Analysis] ITV has completed the restructuring of its Media and Entertainment division, although it is not yet clear what that means for what's on screen and what type of screen

ITV announced that the restructuring of its Media and Entertainment division—the umbrella over which Broadcast (ITV Main, ITV3 and ITV4) and On-Demand (ITV2, ITVBe, CITV, the Hub, Britbox and Interactive) groups now sit—has been "completed". As we noted in ITV Q3 2020 results: Ads recovering, production may take longer [2020-110] the rapid escalation in viewing shifts during lockdown (see Broadcast television: Troubling trends in lockdown [2020-058] and Figure 2 for ITV's viewing performance across lockdowns) has created an urgent reappraisal of the current business structures of broadcasters and content creators. Disney, WarnerMedia, NBCU, ViacomCBS and the BBC have all rejigged the alignment between content commissioning and creation, and distribution. ITV's restructuring therefore is not surprising but given its emphasis on linear—mass, simultaneous audiences its core appeal to advertisers—its evolution is more nuanced than others given it is not pivoting wholesale to DTC and online.

ITV obviously and understandably wants to bulk up its online offering—for example, Hub now has a greater number of full series. However, even though ITV2, ITVBe and CITV now has what ITV calls an "on-demand first" commissioning strategy, up to this point there has noticeably been very little enthusiasm to leverage the biggest titles on those channels to maximise the transition of viewers from linear to online. Sure Love Island is massive on the Hub—and its absence, along with the postponement of the Euros has seen ITV online viewing drop from 2019 levels—but along with The Cabins, The Only Way is Essex, Celebrity Juice, and Love Island Australia, ITV appears to be content to capture viewing where the audience wants to watch (either online or linear), rather than putting those programmes exclusively on the Hub or offering inducements to watch online, like early availability. Interestingly it is programming from the Broadcast group, predominantly dramas on the Main channel, that have seen the most innovation around release—e.g. the second series of The Bay available as a boxset in Britbox, or an increase in the number of shows being fully or partially stripped over consecutive days, such as Des, Quiz and Viewpoint (something which basically delivers a full boxset to the Hub).

The reason for the reticence around innovation with the "On-Demand" channels is probably founded in the lower ad loads accepted by viewers and/or the lower advertising demand that exists for these programmes when on the Hub. As it stands the maximum ad loads in any clock hour on ITV Main is 12 minutes (there are lower average hourly thresholds across the entire day (7 minutes for Main, or 9 minutes for digital channels) and 6-11pm (8 minutes)), while the most we have ever counted for a programme on ITV Hub is 7 minutes. ITV Hub ranges from just a 45 second pre-roll for some 45 minute ITVBe shows, up to that 7 minutes per hour for dramas, Coronation Street and Love Island. As such, even with a premium for VOD, there is a challenge to equate an online view with a view via linear, especially for non-Main channel shows.

We concede that even if the viewing shift to online is well established and has been predictable for years it is early days for these changes in emphasis in commissioning strategy. Looking forward, Paul Mortimer, ITV's Head of Digital Channels and Acquisitions has noted that "much of the content we commission and acquire for [the On-Demand] brands will land on ITV Hub first".1 We will wait and see.

Britbox's UK availability on Amazon Channels will aid growth but will lower ARPU and make the argument around prominence more difficult

No further detail was given about Britbox this quarter, with the 500k subscriber figure—which the streaming service "hit" in January—from the 2020 annual results not being added to, although we understand there will be an update for H1. As announced earlier this year, Britbox has now been made available via Amazon Channels in the UK. The benefits of this deal are obvious, we believe it is likely that Channels has been a key driver in the pleasing growth of Britbox in the US, handing it a large proportion of its subscriber base. From a UK perspective availability via Channels also indirectly gives Britbox distribution on Sky Q boxes—on which the lack of carriage has been one of our greater concerns regarding the

1 Speaking at the Creative Cities Convention on April 22.

ITV: Returning to 2019 levels [2021-050] 2 | 4 service's prospects—as Amazon Prime Video is available on Q, through which Channels are accessible (although signing up to them is difficult).

Disadvantages are lower ARPU—Amazon can demand up to 50% of subscription revenue (but for ITV probably closer to 30%)—less data, and due to Amazon owning the relationship with the customer, no real way for ITV to ever extricate that user from its clutches. However, at this stage it is growth that is important, and the more people talking about the upcoming first original drama The Beast Must Die the better, as new, buzzy programming and knowledge of it is what will ultimately drive more subscribers.

As we have noted previously, this deal was somewhat surprising given that ITV has been vocal about the cut that Amazon takes of advertising revenues (30% according to Dame Carolyn McCall) and/or inventory from the apps on its platform. This has formed part of its offensive surrounding the extension of UK's prominence regime for public service broadcasters to all video platforms, not just the electronic programme guide. Those that oppose the PSBs in this regard—most prominently Sky—have argued that placement of VOD services on platforms, including its own, should generally be dictated by commercial negotiations as already happens for all content outside of the specific PSB channels—i.e. carriage of digital portfolio channels and catch-up players that include digital/non-PSB content alongside PSB content (such as the Hub, All 4 or My 5) are all commercial considerations.

Britbox is a commercial operation—ITV has never argued otherwise—but ITV's willingness to strike a deep deal with Amazon for its availability through Channels may weaken its stance in the eyes of some. Britbox is not discrete from the rest of ITV, it shares content with the Hub, and has been used in tandem with the Main linear channel to distribute content (The Bay). This further blurs the line between the PSB and non-PSB components of ITV and makes the argument that certain components of ITV should be treated differently less intuitive. For ITV that perception is important: we are now in a period where the future of public service broadcasting (or media) is under discussion from three separate groups, and the low hanging fruit on the PSB tree, ITV and Channel 5, needs to be seen to be strengthening their public service credentials and value so as to maintain the benefits they receive for being PSBs.

Figure 2: Daily minutes of TV use per person, by week (2020-21 solid lines/2019 dotted)

180 Lockdown Lockdown Lockdown 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 2020 2021 BBC TV ITV Family Commercial TV Unmatched TV set use* Base: Individuals 4+ in TV households. *Includes viewing to non-broadcast content (e.g. Netflix, Amazon, YouTube), viewing on broadcaster VOD either pre-linear transmission or more than 28 days post, physical formats (e.g. DVDs), non-referenced TV channels, gaming, and browsing the EPG. [Source: Enders Analysis, BARB/AdvantEdge]

ITV: Returning to 2019 levels [2021-050] 3 | 4

Related reports:

ITV FY 2020 results: Waiting for lockdown to end [2021-026]

ITV Q3 2020 results: Ads recovering, production may take longer [2020-110]

ITV FY 2019 results: Solid, but moving from one ubiquitous uncertainty to another [2020-025]

ITV Q1 2020 results: Could be worse, but may get so [2020-045]

More info on BritBox, more questions: ITV H1 results [2019-066]

BritBox’s muted arrival: ITV FY 2018 results [2019-027]

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ITV: Returning to 2019 levels [2021-050] 4 | 4